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[BLA + 1,666]

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Edited October 30, 2020 by BLA

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

Well, if fracking is banned, NG will skyrocket to $5 and oil to $100. 

The economy--already on life support--will crash and burn. 

There would only be one way out of that debacle: war. 

It's going to be an interesting experiment to run.

And any reduction in methane emissions at the wellhead--no matter the slowdown in drilling and completion--is warranted. 

[BLA + 1,666]

50 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Well, if fracking is banned, NG will skyrocket to $5 and oil to $100. 

The economy--already on life support--will crash and burn. 

There would only be one way out of that debacle: war. 

It's going to be an interesting experiment to run.

And any reduction in methane emissions at the wellhead--no matter the slowdown in drilling and completion--is warranted. 

Methane emissions from fracking is a tiny fraction of overall methane emissions.  The #1 culprit is Agriculture with cow dung leading the way.  

Proper flaring can Eliminate 98% of methane.  The resulting increase in CO2 and NOX2 is nothing compared to the Methane damage that is 80X worse. 

Edited October 21, 2020 by BLA

[BLA + 1,666]

On 10/21/2020 at 2:59 PM, Gerry Maddoux said:

Well, if fracking is banned, NG will skyrocket to $5 and oil to $100. 

The economy--already on life support--will crash and burn. 

There would only be one way out of that debacle: war. 

 

Weekend at Bidens

 

 

Edited October 24, 2020 by BLA

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Well, if fracking is banned, NG will skyrocket to $5 and oil to $100. 

The economy--already on life support--will crash and burn. 

There would only be one way out of that debacle: war. 

It's going to be an interesting experiment to run.

And any reduction in methane emissions at the wellhead--no matter the slowdown in drilling and completion--is warranted. 

They will not ban it.  It is all for votes from their base.  They will seek reductions and they will "ban" it in certain areas of little impact for headline effect.  Political promises from the Left are not kept, while most promises made by President Trump are largely kept.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

32 minutes ago, BLA said:

Methane emissions from fracking is a tiny fraction of overall methane emissions.  The #1 culprit is Agriculture with cow dung leading the way.  

Proper flaring can Eliminate 98% of methane.  The resulting increase in CO2 and NOX2 is nothing compared to the Methane damage that is 80X worse. 

Democrat rhetoric must be responsible for a sizeable portion of those emission.   

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

28 minutes ago, BLA said:

"War" with who ?

Still learning the oil industry?    War with or between anyone.  Unfortunately, it's not the war that matters in the world of oil prices, it's the headlines/scare tactics employed by the speculators and the banks that either back them, or engage directly.

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

1 hour ago, BLA said:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Trump-Blasts-Bidens-Fracking-Plans-At-Rally.html

The conclusion of the piece is that Biden won't need legislation to ban facking .    .  .  but the increased investment in renewables will do the job.

I respectfully disagree.  Biden probably won't directly ban fracking but will make it increasingly harder to frack by legislating costly regulations. 

Democrat controlled Congress will go wild with new Oil and Gas legislation. 

First up will  be methane.  The greenies tried to reduce methane via legislation but could never get it passed.

Obama Executive Order in his waining months as President (Nov 2016) enabled strict and costly regulations of methane leaks and discharge on Federal lands.  

Of Course Trump reversed them

Of course Democrats filed legal action against Trump.

Of  course Trump filed suit questioning Obama Executive Order.

Well, recently Federal courts ordered Trump to abide by Obama EO .   .   .   .   BUT then Trump administration won their filing throwing out Obama original EO.

So now under Biden Administration and Democrat Congress you will see legislation passed on methane and other regulatory matters (methane just the start) that will greatly hamper the expansion of fracking.  Additionally, while Obama EO could only address Federal lands the new legislation will go after all oil and gas fracking nationwide.

Will it pass ? Don't know. 

This would limit fracking  and the added cost will (1) be passed on to the U.S. consumer and (2) make U.S. oil and gas exports less competitive.

U.S. LNG is already at a disadvantage as the high relative shipping  cost to the LNG cost makes it very difficult to compete in Europe and Asia. (Chevron dumped it's natural gas holdings in PA and WV.  Now has Noble's NG development of of Israel)

This will accelerate the ongoing consolidation.  Not like it needs it. 

Re consolidation: Pioneer CEO said their will only be a few independents left after the consolidation now that the good acquisitions have already picked over.  He referenced Pioneer, EOG, Conoco and maybe Hess.  Sheffield said an independent needs a market cap of at least $10 Billion to take advantage of efficiencies and be cost competitive and maintain funding. 

What happens to the rest.  Probably see similar to what happened with Whiting , the Bakken play.  They had $2.6 Billion in debt and filed for Chapter 11 reorganization.  They came out of it with only $400 million on the books. Nice.  Ready for someone to buy with market cap of about $1.2 Billion.

What about Harold Hamm's Continental Resources ? High Debt/Equity ratio. Last time I checked they had about $6 Billion Equity and $5 Billion Debt .  There is talk they might do something with Marathon or Hess.  

Re Big Oil and renewables.  My opinion it's still a PR stunt.  I just can't make sense of it.  All the oil and gas companies will put on a good front and give it lip service but it will never be the savior for the companies.  Conoco is now in favor of a carbon tax.  It was about a year ago CEO Lance Ryan said EVs won't affect oil demand until after 2050. He was off by 25 years. Carbon tax will be one more addition to burden U.S. consumer and decrease U.S. exports competitiveness. One more reason size matters.

Still betting on higher oil prices by end of year.  (1) GDP # OCT 26th  (2) Election done (3) T(he next OPEC meeting gives me pause, however I think they state they will mai tai curbs (even though members will continue to violate them) (4) Announcement of CV19 vaccine December. (Won't be widely available but positive psychological effects. 

 

Look at the example of CO, what the DEMS will do to kill oil and gas development!!

They tried by putting it on the ballot, voters rejected it and then they sneak around and put new regs anyways, against the choice of the voters.

 

They will increase taxes, permit fees, licensing fees, bonding fees and everything else they can throw @ it, increase regulations for transport and shipping of crude oil and gas etc, they will put export taxes and tariffs and carbon tax to make it all uneconomical and have thousands of lawsuits by left wing groups to stall new drilling and production even on private lands, throw in lawsuits and moratoriums for offshore oil and gas and ROW's for pipelines and DOT rules and moratoriums for rail road transport.

The list goes on and on....

[BLA + 1,666]

7 hours ago, ceo_energemsier said:

Look at the example of CO, what the DEMS will do to kill oil and gas development!!

They tried by putting it on the ballot, voters rejected it and then they sneak around and put new regs anyways, against the choice of the voters.

 

They will increase taxes, permit fees, licensing fees, bonding fees and everything else they can throw @ it, increase regulations for transport and shipping of crude oil and gas etc, they will put export taxes and tariffs and carbon tax to make it all uneconomical and have thousands of lawsuits by left wing groups to stall new drilling and production even on private lands, throw in lawsuits and moratoriums for offshore oil and gas and ROW's for pipelines and DOT rules and moratoriums for rail road transport.

The list goes on and on....

Presently most states have a gasoline tax (Fed, State, local) between 50 cents to 60 cents per gallon.  Look for that to at least double in the name of the Green New Deal.  

Edited October 22, 2020 by BLA

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

1 minute ago, BLA said:

Present most states have a gasoline tax (Fed, State, local) between 50 cents to 60 cents per gallon.  Look for that to double in the name of the Green New Deal.  

They will try to name it as a "miles traveled tax" for upkeep of roads and infrastructure and preservation of the environment.

Green New Deal= Greed New Deal (for making Americans poorer and making China richer)

[BLA + 1,666]

43 minutes ago, ceo_energemsier said:

They will try to name it as a "miles traveled tax" for upkeep of roads and infrastructure and preservation of the environment.

Green New Deal= Greed New Deal (for making Americans poorer and making China richer)

Gasoline taxes were started under the premise that the receipts would be used to build and maintain roads and bridges. 

Instead the tax receipts went into the General Fund.

Edited October 21, 2020 by BLA

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

13 minutes ago, BLA said:

Gasoline taxes were started under the premise that the receipts would be used to build and maintain roads and bridges. 

The tax receipts instead went into the general fund.

Again, look @ CO and other blue/liberal States... legalize MJ , $$$ will be used for educating children teenagers against the smoking og tobacco? MJ? and for schools HAHAHA what a joke!

These folks like to hide behind the children to make excuses for doing and passing certain laws/regs yet they truly dont give a schitt about the actual health, well being and safety of children!

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

1 hour ago, BLA said:

Methane emissions from fracking is a tiny fraction of overall methane emissions.  The #1 culprit is Agriculture with cow dung leading the way.  

HaHa, I agree completely. It's not the fracking that produces methane, it's the aftermath. The TRRC has Statewide Rule 32 in place that says you can vent NG only for 24 hours and flare it for <10 days, yet they have ignored that for the last seven or eight years. Why? Because they didn't have enough takeaway pipeline for all the NG in the Permian. They did the same thing in ND. For years, enough NG has been wasted into the wind in the Permian Basin to supply power to a major American city. Multiply that by hundreds and you get a black eye. This as much as anything else has led to the acceleration of this Green New Deal phenomenon. The world has taken notice. Why has the TRRC ignored their own rule. To allow marginal producers to stay in business. But in doing that, they have allowed hundreds of marginal producers to drill yet another hole, vent and flare yet another unneeded well. But you're right: burping NG (not dung) from the multiple stomachs of cows produces much more methane--maybe as much as 30% of that on earth. And here's something to ponder: the dinosaurs have been proven to have multiple stomachs, too. Can you imagine the amount of methane gas those suckers burped? Maybe that's what wiped them out. 

2 hours ago, BLA said:

"War" with who ?

As to "war with whom?" OPEC is going broke. The Emirates have joined up with Israel, who now holds what is likely going to be the largest NG field in the world (Leviathan). Bahrain followed. ISIS has targeted KSA and UAE. I don't propose to know who is going to war against whom, just that you can't have twenty oil-producing state-nations go broke, or affiliate with their sworn lifetime enemy, without doing something desperate. China is affiliated with Iran, who is getting weapons from of all places, N. Korea. I don't know. Somebody is going to do something goofy and since we're hooked into the whole thing, we'll be forced to do something. 

As to war, we're already in WWII. It is the first world war using a biological warhead. If Trump is reelected, Xi will have no place to hide. If Biden gets in, he's going to cozy up to Xi and the American public will have his hide. 

War with whom? Throw a dart. 

[cbrasher1 + 272]

Be ready for $6 and higher gas at the pump if the rats win. Seen Venezuela situation lately? No gas....If MBS says "Biden you want oil come kiss my ass" he'll be on first flight. We will be at lots of country's mercy.  I believe this election will determine the livelihood, survival, and existence of this country as we know it.  Covid is a bump in the road that can be corrected, a Biden win, well...get ready for hard times for a longggg longgggg time. my .02 of course

[Bob D + 562]

1 hour ago, ceo_energemsier said:

They will try to name it as a "miles traveled tax" for upkeep of roads and infrastructure and preservation of the environment.

Green New Deal= Greed New Deal (for making Americans poorer and making China richer)

The "Miles Traveled Tax" also creates incentives to move into ever larger cities where Democrats can better control the people.

[BLA + 1,666]

5 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

HaHa, I agree completely. It's not the fracking that produces methane, it's the aftermath. The TRRC has Statewide Rule 32 in place that says you can vent NG only for 24 hours and flare it for <10 days, yet they have ignored that for the last seven or eight years. Why? Because they didn't have enough takeaway pipeline for all the NG in the Permian. They did the same thing in ND. For years, enough NG has been wasted into the wind in the Permian Basin to supply power to a major American city. Multiply that by hundreds and you get a black eye. This as much as anything else has led to the acceleration of this Green New Deal phenomenon. The world has taken notice. Why has the TRRC ignored their own rule. To allow marginal producers to stay in business. But in doing that, they have allowed hundreds of marginal producers to drill yet another hole, vent and flare yet another unneeded well. But you're right: burping NG (not dung) from the multiple stomachs of cows produces much more methane--maybe as much as 30% of that on earth. And here's something to ponder: the dinosaurs have been proven to have multiple stomachs, too. Can you imagine the amount of methane gas those suckers burped? Maybe that's what wiped them out. 

As to "war with whom?" OPEC is going broke. The Emirates have joined up with Israel, who now holds what is likely going to be the largest NG field in the world (Leviathan). Bahrain followed. ISIS has targeted KSA and UAE. I don't propose to know who is going to war against whom, just that you can't have twenty oil-producing state-nations go broke, or affiliate with their sworn lifetime enemy, without doing something desperate. China is affiliated with Iran, who is getting weapons from of all places, N. Korea. I don't know. Somebody is going to do something goofy and since we're hooked into the whole thing, we'll be forced to do something. 

As to war, we're already in WWII. It is the first world war using a biological warhead. If Trump is reelected, Xi will have no place to hide. If Biden gets in, he's going to cozy up to Xi and the American public will have his hide. 

War with whom? Throw a dart. 

Methane control is a catch 22.  Producers get waiver  because there is not enough pipeline takeaway and NG  pipelines are too expensive and can not get commitments from producers.

With or without methane legislation the Shale consolidation will reduce the number of Shale producers substantially  thus increasing price and controlling production.

As far as war. Agree 100% that short of a miracle a major conflict or even war could break out in Mideast .  I don't see any way out when one looks at the prospects for oil prices.

However, internal conflict has the same or greater chance to take place.  Saudi Prince bin Salman has a lot of enemies from Shiites in the east to cousins and uncles.  

Also, most are not aware that there is extensive espionage going on inside Iran.  Much dissent inside Iran. China is propping up their leadership cutting deals and buying their oil. If Biden elected he will throw Iran a lifeline and accommodate China's hegemony.

Chinese, Russian and U.S oil companies are establishing more JVs in the region. None of the three want a conflict.  Not if they can help it. 

There is a greater threat of internal conflicts in my opinion.  My question is , if there is a coup or uprising in Saudi Arabia does the U.S.  get involved.

Edited October 22, 2020 by BLA

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

14 minutes ago, BLA said:

There is a greater threat of internal conflicts in my opinion.  My question is , if there is a coup or uprising in Saudi Arabia does the U.S.  get involved.

Alas, I'm afraid so. 

In my opinion, the administration doesn't really understand that we don't/won't need Saudi oil. And that's a shame. 

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

Just now, Gerry Maddoux said:

Alas, I'm afraid so. 

In my opinion, the administration doesn't really understand that we don't/won't need Saudi oil. And that's a shame. 

I have a feeling that if Pres. Trump is re-elected, and schitt happens in KSA, the US military will have a very limited role unlike previous admins and if he doesnt, then we can expect the sleepy Joe to wake up on the wrong side of American people's interests.

[BLA + 1,666]

4 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Alas, I'm afraid so. 

In my opinion, the administration doesn't really understand that we don't/won't need Saudi oil. And that's a shame. 

I think this administration fully understands that we don't need Saudi oil .   .  .   .  rather, I believe this administration believes a stable Saudi Arabia (ie House of Saud) is needed for peace in the region and survival of Israel in a  very tough neighborhood .

This administration will step in if Israel is threatened. 

Edited October 22, 2020 by BLA

[RichieRich216 + 454]

Don’t anyone believe for a New York minute that the D

[RichieRich216 + 454]

That Democrats won’t destroy fossil fuels just out of pure spite! These assholes are like the German SS in WW2 and if they say it Believe IT..... They don’t care what damages they cause as long as they’re agenda is pushed forward...

[0R0 + 6,251]

8 hours ago, BLA said:

Re Big Oil and renewables.  My opinion it's still a PR stunt.  I just can't make sense of it.  All the oil and gas companies will put on a good front and give it lip service but it will never be the savior for the companies.  Conoco is now in favor of a carbon tax.

They are for a carbon tax because they can inject carbon dioxide to enhance recoveries and be carbon negative, thus using carbon credits to lower production cost.

[0R0 + 6,251]

5 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

burping NG (not dung) from the multiple stomachs of cows produces much more methane--maybe as much as 30% of that on earth.

That is not really true. What vegetation cows eat will simply be eaten by something else. Those same bacteria in cow stomachs are going to eat the vegetation chewed up by whatever takes cow's place on a no longer cultivated field that used to feed cows. Within a few years you will equalize the methane emissions with wildlife instead of cows. And the deer bison etc. will be hunted and eaten instead of the steers.

The only exception is forests growing in former feed crop lands. That is rather rare. Forests take in CO2 for decades before conversion to methane. The native grasses that replace animal feed crops get eaten every year. Whether by deer goat or bison, the same bugs in their stomachs will produce the same methane from the same lands' biomass. Saw the passion of the CEO of impossible foods corp. on an interview can't believe he thinks the methane the cows and steers produce would not be replaced by other animals that produce the exact same amount of methane. It is in the nature of all biomass to find itself digested to form CO2 and methane.

[BLA + 1,666]

36 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

They are for a carbon tax because they can inject carbon dioxide to enhance recoveries and be carbon negative, thus using carbon credits to lower production cost.

Kinder Morgan did big business in CO2 enhanced recovery.  They get a carbon credit for that ?

[BLA + 1,666]

GOOD ARTICLE IN FORBES RE THE RESTRUCTURING OF AND PROSPECTS OF INVESTING IN THE OIL INDUSTRY:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgeschultze/2020/10/21/it-may-be-in-turmoil-but-the-oil-business-isnt-going-away/#7f600df54b85

 

Edited October 22, 2020 by BLA