Rethinking election outcomes for oil.

[SUZNV + 1,197]

12 hours ago, BLA said:

Read my original post.  " duty on all products originating from the country in violation. .

China pulled that trick already.  They transferred product thru Vietnam or Indonesia.

You could put a stipulation in the duty law if you try mask the origin of the product double the duty to 20%. 

It's our country.

Keep it simple.  

Flat , across the board 10% duty.

 

Apple (through Foxconn) is happy to pay the tariff rather than pay income tax for phone made in USA. You need a very ridiculous tariff (which will affect other imports) to all of countries have their factories to make them move back to USA unless you lower Apple USA income tax which will apply for other corporates as well. 

Foxconn is Taiwanese company not China. So if they open factories in other countries, it will only affect China employment and tax on these employment while Apple can save more on tariff while still can legally dodge US income tax. People love to buy things made in their countries is why they open in India, not only because of the tariff.

If Trump loses the election, the Foxconn in Wisconsin "made in USA" will make Apple lose big for income tax because of Biden raises more tax on corporations. They predicted Trump will win the reelection but now because of Covid19 and mail in Voting they took excuse to delay because situation is harder to predict and they don't want to pay tax especially for the coming recession time.

That why raises corporates taxes promise is a scam which won't affect corporations much. Too many way for them to avoid it or to pass them to consumers (which may reduce consumption in US market or people will just absorb it if it is a necessity for them).

Edited October 27, 2020 by SUZNV

[BLA + 1,666]

31 minutes ago, SUZNV said:

Apple (through Foxconn) is happy to pay the tariff rather than pay income tax for phone made in USA. You need a very ridiculous tariff (which will affect other imports) to all of countries have their factories to make them move back to USA unless you lower Apple USA income tax which will apply for other corporates as well.

Foxconn is Taiwanese company not China. So if they open factories in other countries, it will only affect China employment and tax on these employment while Apple can save more on tariff while still can legally dodge US income tax.

If Trump loses the election, the Foxconn in Wisconsin "made in USA" will make Apple lose big for income tax because of Biden raises more tax on corporations. They predicted Trump will win the reelection but now because of Covid19 and mail in Voting they took excuse to delay because situation is harder to predict and they don't want to pay tax especially for the coming recession time.

Read my original post 

My solution states it's for any country that violates the U.S. established fair trade rules. It does not single out China.

Also, you said Foxconn would be glad to pay the duty ? What ? Foxconn will pay a $100 tariff on a phone they mfg for $6.50.

The ownership of the phone transfers to Apple before it leaves Asia.  

In our example Apple pays a $100 duty on $500 profit ? Really ? Apple won't mind paying a 20% on profits to tariff?  The U.S. Corp Income Tax is 21% ? Kinda close.

Read my original post.

My "Fair Trade Rules" with 10% duty for violation is meant to enforce Fair Trade, not necessarily bring all mfg back to U.S. 

The Foxconn deal in Wisconsin never panned out.  They chose Wisconsin because they thought U.S. Rep Ryan was going to be in political power for a while. Are they even still in Wisconsin ?

Edited October 27, 2020 by BLA

[SUZNV + 1,197]

37 minutes ago, BLA said:

Read my original post 

My solution states it's for any country that violates the U.S. established fair trade rules. It does not single out China.

Also, you said Foxconn would be glad to pay the duty ? What ? Foxconn will pay a $100 tariff on a phone they mfg for $6.50.

The ownership of the phone transfers to Apple before it leaves Asia.  

In our example Apple pays a $100 duty on $500 profit ? Really ? Apple won't mind paying a 20% on profits to tariff?  The U.S. Corp Income Tax is 21% ? Kinda close.

Read my original post.

My "Fair Trade Rules" with 10% duty for violation is meant to enforce Fair Trade, not necessarily bring all mfg back to U.S. 

The Foxconn deal in Wisconsin never panned out.  They chose Wisconsin because they thought U.S. Rep Ryan was going to be in political power for a while. Are they even still in Wisconsin ?

I didn't mean Foxconn pay tariff. I just want to  drag Foxconn in so people can monitor where are their factories. Reader may confuse if we say Apple in China (foxconn) or Apple in Ireland (not foxconn).

If the profit is more than 500usd, lets say 600usd, then the % will be different. Secondly will Foxconn can keep the cheap production of $6.5 inside USA? What did US Rep Ryan do to attract them if tax rate is still 21%? I don't follow Apple much. I see no purpose  to open one in Wisconsin unless Trump promises to reduce more corporations tax.

Edited October 27, 2020 by SUZNV

[specinho + 469]

 

On 10/26/2020 at 11:43 AM, 0R0 said:

BRI cost China its liquid reserves. It is not a tradeoff they would have done for commercial purposes. It was an enormous boondogle serving domestic graft rather than geopolitics. Certainly not economically smart for China.

Nearly involved in one of the projects under one road to one region or Road and Belt thingy........... Prepared with background basic reading before writing a proposal requested. Not sure if this is correct but they might be trying to do something kind and good like the world bank has been doing for ages........ Since it is only country to country, there could always be a barter trade off e.g. with natural resources instead of cash......

On 10/26/2020 at 2:31 PM, Dan Warnick said:

The belt and road will dissolve into the ether and no one will speak of it in about 10 years or less (my SWAG).  It is neither sustainable nor as valuable as the CCP thinks it is, or at least want's the masses inside the country to believe.

Reviving the old, glorified days of silk road might have both benefits and disadvantages as usual..... Oil and gas + minerals that are found bountiful in that region might be the coincidental aims...........

On 10/26/2020 at 3:31 PM, BLA said:

India had the right idea.  They told Apple they would be putting a 20% duty on imported iPhones.  Apple is building their largest new factory in India. U.S. needs to learn from them. 

Was in a course "Entrepreneurship in emerging economies", by HavardX. This course was all about success stories of Indians entrepreneurs in the professors eyes........ We were reading something like:

1. India has a law saying that all technologies going into India will automatically lose their copyright.........

2.

Solutions mentioned were

1.    government is suggested to be the health insurance provider and not healthcare provider

2.    telemedicine reaching the remote villages through satellite transmission for consultation

Under this section,

Doctor mentioned a point about how the poor are paying the premium. He mentioned through installment- a system that estimates the poor who receive money three times a year to be able to pay upfront until next year and every bucks they have 3 bucks 5 bucks they can pay through kiosks available everywhere. .......

Points of discussion copied from one of the participants in the discussion board...........

I'm reserve on how this system could possibly make the poor poorer. The common existing concept on healthcare is the government using revenues earned from publicly owned natural resources; investment funds and etc to provide adequate services to the citizens. The massive requirements of healthcare system are largely pregnancy and newborn; geriatric care; diseases of civilization and accidents. Others are likely to be healthy especially in poor countries where everyone has to work like hell to earn less than 10 USD per day. These population are the least likely to get sick. If they do it would be diseases of old age and mild flu or fever or etc.

Based on general demographic distribution the population of 65 years old and above are likely to be around 5 - 10%. There might be no reason the service can not be met adequately. Misused of allocations; wastages on medication and overstaff might have been the issues that wreaked havoc to the existing system. A friend of mine experienced waiting with mom for 5 hours to meet one of the 12 specialists in a government hospital while there were only 20 waiting patients with 5 minutes each allocation time prior to our turn. His mother was dismissed in 5 minutes without being informed the cause of the discomfort nor the interest to investigate the cause nor the proper treatment. They are showing how inefficient-overstaff and underqualified the personnel have been. Mass production of graduates especially in professional areas like doctors; lawyers; accountants and etc have lowered the entrance screening points and hence the quality of eventual outcomes. Over supply of ill-prepared graduates are reabsorbed and paid by the government as government servants. This stretches out the allocations. Pain killers and other prescriptions were given at the rate of three months provision each visit. It gives an impression the medication should be taken daily like candies regardless of the possible side effect(s)........... Basic test tubes for blood tests are imported quality from Europe while there are generic branches of local manufacturing products available. Expensive equipments with the latest technologies are sometimes purchased but do not know how to use hence left gather dust at corners. Essential facilities take years to be approved. Management of allocation and operation are hence the keys not privatizing the system.

Shall government forego being healthcare provider but become insurance provider instead the costs are going to be exorbitant. The deficit is going to be having multiple effects on daily lives e.g. inflation; increase of unaccounted poverty rate; poor quality of life etc. The poor might have difficulty to meet the requirements of purchasing daily necessities not to mention committing to pay anything else that could cost as little as 10 USD per month. Therefore....... this idea is probably far fetched by the standard of living in developing countries. Private practice in healthcare should be encouraged to raise the quality and standard of performance but not imposed as standard measure to be complied or outsourced by the government.

Regarding telemedicines......... it has been an excellent idea....... Watched a korean drama "The Medical Ship" some times ago. It is a story about lives of doctors living on board of a medical ship. Telemedicine was introduced near the end of the drama jeopardizing the operation of the ship. The drama also highlighted the troubles with telemedicine whereby the technology might be too advance for the elderly or staff at the remote areas; the specialists in the cities incharged of being supervisors to remote treatment might be too busy to pick up the calls nor to response in time; those exiled doctors in remote areas who might be expert in certain fields would be found useless or wasted shall they have to refer every flue and fever before they issue medication.

In a nutshell........ the key of success might be in the details on how these two concepts could work out in targeted countries. Otherwise....... it might be just another money game where a lot are pulled to be invested but holes are left to be patched now and then; here and there...........

3. It was asked

Would you be comfortable taking money from Wall Street if that allowed you to scale this incomparably faster and make care available to the poorest of the poor? ................... Stated differently, are you uncomfortable making money off the backs of the poor

Points taken from one of the participants..........

From the quote above taken from the script are we correct in assuming that the dilemma is: if we should take money from wall street and donations or shall we take money from the poor to make our profits??

Regarding the ethical issue related to how money is being used to avoid taxes ....... it is commonly agreed that the governments who use our money like tap water inefficiently and wastefully should be allowed minimum access to our hard earned money....... Therefore....... channeling it to tax exempted zones for greater good is not wrong or unethical. If this effort is generating money sustainably along the way it is even better.

But to take money from the poor so that profits can be generated by sere number of the crowd......... no matter how small the amount it is unethical......... Our initial aim is to help the poor NOT to make them poorer with things that they might or might not need.

4. paragon or pirate

copied points of discussion from one of the participants:

Reading the introduction about biopiracy right has opened my mind to ponder where should the line to right be placed. Further into the interview........ I'm truly disappointed. If the largest pharmaceutical company started off as pirating a flu vaccine produced by the west and reduced the production steps from 20 to 12 steps we might have a big problem.

1.    bird flu virus is known to be unstable RNA virus. Due to its instability the mutation rate would be very high. Therefore..... they have been playing catch up. The moment they discovered the first strain of virus they plunged into vaccine production to save the pigs or the chickens. Few months later before or shortly after the vaccine is produced a second strain of virus was discovered and announced. This chase of discovery-vaccine production-discovery might have continued due to the high instability of bird flu RNA virus. Therefore........ there might never be an effective shot of vaccine suitable for this outbreak. But a lot of money has been involved to turn a few cents worth of vaccine into tens of dollars or more per shot.

2.    Indian company has produced the pirated vaccine by reducing the procedure from 20 steps to 12. If we may recall the recent dispute regarding the necessity of vaccine................... I guess this is where the problem is originated. Pirated vaccines might have not been tested before using on human and produced unwanted side effects that chosen to be ignored?? Those who are boycotting (if not mistaken) started from large developing countries like India and China. Then it spred to involve many parts of the world disclosing evidents of the under reported side effects of pirated vaccines. But the disclosure was confused and generalized under "Vaccination" as a whole. Hence the ongoing dispute begins whether vaccination should be a compulsory thing or optional and etc......... But the root cause might have been the quality of the products.........

This interview has changed my perception on all Indian entrepreneurs and professors of Harvard interviewed and involved in this course - from admiration to the highest degree of disappointment.........

16 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Why tracking FL is overwhelmingly important for the election

Is that not an effect of alphabetical order or something?

[BLA + 1,666]

On 10/24/2020 at 9:28 PM, 0R0 said:

A 

ORO

Is the Chinese debt going to be a problem  for them.  Some say no in light of the large reserves the posses ? 

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, BLA said:

ORO

Is the Chinese debt going to be a problem  for them.  Some say no in light of the large reserves the posses ? 

The big deal in China is a buildup of bad debt that is being rolled over for SOEs and not for private cos. Chalene Cho shows cumulative 17% non performing private debt 2018-19, SOE performance is visible in the gap between bank assets and money supply as fresh lending covers losses rolled over by banks (increases assets but since cash was used to pay down existing unpaid debt M2 did not rise with it). It shows losses of bank clients of 2% per year 2013-16, 5% 2017-2019 or a cumulative 23%. That means the banks are well beyond their reserve cushion.

This manifested in the Baoshang bankruptcy where the resolution required a 30% haircut from depositors. The damage would have been too great for Outer Mongolian SOEs so only a 10% loss was taken and the hole covered by the PBOC.

The China M2 is now 250% of GDP. Debt markets are 330% of GDP and Shadow finance is another 200% of GDP if you don't consider that 12% of reported GDP does not actually exist.

This is also not economically the most significant issue, since the private half of the China economy is outside the bank funding system and it is funded by WMPs and int'l $ market. The public is only now aware of the losses and has not been participating in funding any longer though WMPs were permitted again in order to goose the economy at end 2019 and now.

None of the Chinese private market finance is on the official books reported from NBS and PBOC. It is about the same scale and leverage as the SOE economy after the 2016-17 blowout of shadow financing. Due to the crackdown on WMPs the Chinese economy grew 1.8% in 2018 and 0% in 2019 by Prof. Xiang's numbers. The financial chaos of this shadow finance collapsing will not show in official financial numbers but companies like Caixin and ChinaBeigeBook track it as does Charlene Cho track the actual economy, labor and private credit. Those show depression levels, not recovery.

BTW, you can see on the chart how well ahead real economic performance in China had been up to 2008 as M2 was ahead of bank assets as Chinese investments were still profitable. So they had multiplier effects in the economy and in deposit growth.

[BLA + 1,666]

1 hour ago, 0R0 said:

The big deal in China is a buildup of bad debt that is being rolled over for SOEs and not for private cos. Chalene Cho shows cumulative 17% non performing private debt 2018-19, SOE performance is visible in the gap between bank assets and money supply as fresh lending covers losses rolled over by banks (increases assets but since cash was used to pay down existing unpaid debt M2 did not rise with it). It shows losses of bank clients of 2% per year 2013-16, 5% 2017-2019 or a cumulative 23%. That means the banks are well beyond their reserve cushion.

This manifested in the Baoshang bankruptcy where the resolution required a 30% haircut from depositors. The damage would have been too great for Outer Mongolian SOEs so only a 10% loss was taken and the hole covered by the PBOC.

The China M2 is now 250% of GDP. Debt markets are 330% of GDP and Shadow finance is another 200% of GDP if you don't consider that 12% of reported GDP does not actually exist.

This is also not economically the most significant issue, since the private half of the China economy is outside the bank funding system and it is funded by WMPs and int'l $ market. The public is only now aware of the losses and has not been participating in funding any longer though WMPs were permitted again in order to goose the economy at end 2019 and now.

None of the Chinese private market finance is on the official books reported from NBS and PBOC. It is about the same scale and leverage as the SOE economy after the 2016-17 blowout of shadow financing. Due to the crackdown on WMPs the Chinese economy grew 1.8% in 2018 and 0% in 2019 by Prof. Xiang's numbers. The financial chaos of this shadow finance collapsing will not show in official financial numbers but companies like Caixin and ChinaBeigeBook track it as does Charlene Cho track the actual economy, labor and private credit. Those show depression levels, not recovery.

BTW, you can see on the chart how well ahead real economic performance in China had been up to 2008 as M2 was ahead of bank assets as Chinese investments were still profitable. So they had multiplier effects in the economy and in deposit growth.

Thx

[SUZNV + 1,197]

21 hours ago, specinho said:

 

Nearly involved in one of the projects under one road to one region or Road and Belt thingy........... Prepared with background basic reading before writing a proposal requested. Not sure if this is correct but they might be trying to do something kind and good like the world bank has been doing for ages........ Since it is only country to country, there could always be a barter trade off e.g. with natural resources instead of cash......

Reviving the old, glorified days of silk road might have both benefits and disadvantages as usual..... Oil and gas + minerals that are found bountiful in that region might be the coincidental aims...........

 

Originally BRI were only a  way for China to export their construction services and selling material and lending money, similar to ODA to developing countries. We lend you money, using our contractors, our labors, buying our material and machines, a large part of money go back to the lending country companies while the borrower benefit of the income from the project and still have to pay back the debt while inside China the local projects may be a source for corruption. The projects must have predicted values and the accuracy of that depend on how transparent/corruption the borrowers are. Some were really needed others just the borrower gov wanted a project out of corruption, China doesn't care as long as they got some secure like any normal loan, which in many cases , natural resources or ports. 

When Xin became top, he turned these into BRI and the projects are encouraged to match his China plan no matter if it is necessary or not, for example the "Silk Road" only has value when it is completed from Europe to China and used regularly.  The borrower will ask why should I borrow money for something in far future like that so China needs to promises on anything with very small deposits from the borrowers, and the same like some projects above, bribe the borrowers gov to  get the projects approved.

Local projects in China will be in Yuan for sure. All the BRI loans are denominated by US dollars. It does not mean China lend dollars to these loan, the USD may not leave China at all because services, materials, labor etc. are all from China but the borrowers will have to pay in USD, China may borrow USD to keep inflation down for these loans though. If BRI freeze with non-covid issues, it will hurt Xi reputation within China. If BRI continue, yuan may face high inflation unless China borrowing more USD for reserve. Covid19 may make these projects stop without any income and the borrowers cannot pay for it while the deposit are too small and the projects could not complete. China will still have to pay the interest for the USD they borrow though. This links to the internal Yuan debt situation in China.

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, SUZNV said:

Originally BRI were only a  way for China to export their construction services and selling material and lending money, similar to ODA to developing countries. We lend you money, using our contractors, our labors, buying our material and machines, a large part of money go back to the lending country companies while the borrower benefit of the income from the project and still have to pay back the debt while inside China the local projects may be a source for corruption. The projects must have predicted values and the accuracy of that depend on how transparent/corruption the borrowers are. Some were really needed others just the borrower gov wanted a project out of corruption, China doesn't care as long as they got some secure like any normal loan, which in many cases , natural resources or ports. 

When Xin became top, he turned these into BRI and the projects are encouraged to match his China plan no matter if it is necessary or not, for example the "Silk Road" only has value when it is completed from Europe to China and used regularly.  The borrower will ask why should I borrow money for something in far future like that so China needs to promises on anything with very small deposits from the borrowers, and the same like some projects above, bribe the borrowers gov to  get the projects approved.

Local projects in China will be in Yuan for sure. All the BRI loans are denominated by US dollars. It does not mean China lend dollars to these loan, the USD may not leave China at all because services, materials, labor etc. are all from China but the borrowers will have to pay in USD, China may borrow USD to keep inflation down for these loans though. If BRI freeze with non-covid issues, it will hurt Xi reputation within China. If BRI continue, yuan may face high inflation unless China borrowing more USD for reserve. Covid19 may make these projects stop without any income and the borrowers cannot pay for it while the deposit are too small and the projects could not complete. China will still have to pay the interest for the USD they borrow though. This links to the internal Yuan debt situation in China.

 

Another important piece of the puzzle.  Thanks.

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 hours ago, SUZNV said:

When Xin became top, he turned these into BRI and the projects are encouraged to match his China plan no matter if it is necessary or not, for example the "Silk Road" only has value when it is completed from Europe to China and used regularly.  The borrower will ask why should I borrow money for something in far future like that so China needs to promises on anything with very small deposits from the borrowers, and the same like some projects above, bribe the borrowers gov to  get the projects approved.

The problem of the BRI and particularly the "Sillk Road" is trying to undo the history of its failure due to cheaper sea transport. High speed rail corridors to Europe are 10X more expensive to operate than sea transport. Slower than air trans. and limited in capacity.

China will lose their debt default handovers of projects to governments that repudiate their contracts. They are already denouncing them (e.g. Tanzania).

Xi will have egg all over his face. His break with the security leadership of the CCP after it was disclosed that Biden and Xi were in an assassination and theft plot to take CCP oligarch assets abroad and split the profits after they are "suicided" or "accidented" to death. It pretty much lost him the CCP leadership's support. Xi's days are numbered. These folks are threatening carpet bombing the world with bribery and blackmail deal documentation with the heads of many governments, companies, influential people in the US and globally. Biden's "plausible deniability" is not going to help any of them. Not Harris, not Feinstein, not the Clintons, nor anyone else that is being lined up to take their turn in the deep fryer.

[0R0 + 6,251]

AZ rally stats from today show why (one of several reasons) the polls are getting things so wrong. Turnout models and distribution of party votes by registration are not happening in the usual pattern. The Rep vote includes a large number of new voters that have only registered this year. In places like PA that is in the 160k range of new voters registering Rep.

ARIZONA is fired up and ready to re-elect for @realDonaldTrump!

 

23,591 signups for Bullhead City rally

 

24.0% NOT Republican

 

45.3% (!) did not vote in 2016

The early voting is not reflecting the polls as it was already known from surveys that Dems would start with a heavy mail in vote advantage. But they are not hitting those numbers. Of the 50% intending to vote by mail among Dems in NC, 20% didn't request a ballot (10% of Dem total), and 25% of those who got one didn't send it in (yet) (10% of total) so there is a 20% loss of the expected Dem VBM vote.

Reps in NC polled at 17% VBM

and Indies 32%

Actual results so far are far from the predicted instead of 50 to 17 or 70% considering the independent voters, the results of VBM were 60% by opening of in person voting. It is not the lead expected, and it erodes rapidly with Early in person voting.

Reps, who >50% intend to vote on ED still remain outstanding after 71% of the vote (basis 2016) is in, indicating a sharp lead for Trump in the final numbers.

This is repeated in many swing states. One internal poll from Dem circle is showing

FL 3 for Trump

AZ 3 Trump

MI 3 Trump

PA 2 Trump

NC 3 Trump

WI Tie

NV and MN marginally for Biden

Turnout for ED will be strongly Rep. with many Dems and independents shifting for him and new voters who registered for the express purpose of voting for Trump. His support composition includes many more blacks, Hispanics, Gays as well as people who were detached from politics for their entire life so far.

[Hotone + 412]

On 10/28/2020 at 1:10 AM, specinho said:

 

Nearly involved in one of the projects under one road to one region or Road and Belt thingy........... Prepared with background basic reading before writing a proposal requested. Not sure if this is correct but they might be trying to do something kind and good like the world bank has been doing for ages........ Since it is only country to country, there could always be a barter trade off e.g. with natural resources instead of cash......

Reviving the old, glorified days of silk road might have both benefits and disadvantages as usual..... Oil and gas + minerals that are found bountiful in that region might be the coincidental aims...........

Was in a course "Entrepreneurship in emerging economies", by HavardX. This course was all about success stories of Indians entrepreneurs in the professors eyes........ We were reading something like:

1. India has a law saying that all technologies going into India will automatically lose their copyright.........

2.

Solutions mentioned were

 

1.    government is suggested to be the health insurance provider and not healthcare provider

 

2.    telemedicine reaching the remote villages through satellite transmission for consultation

 

 

Under this section,

Doctor mentioned a point about how the poor are paying the premium. He mentioned through installment- a system that estimates the poor who receive money three times a year to be able to pay upfront until next year and every bucks they have 3 bucks 5 bucks they can pay through kiosks available everywhere. .......

 

Points of discussion copied from one of the participants in the discussion board...........

I'm reserve on how this system could possibly make the poor poorer. The common existing concept on healthcare is the government using revenues earned from publicly owned natural resources; investment funds and etc to provide adequate services to the citizens. The massive requirements of healthcare system are largely pregnancy and newborn; geriatric care; diseases of civilization and accidents. Others are likely to be healthy especially in poor countries where everyone has to work like hell to earn less than 10 USD per day. These population are the least likely to get sick. If they do it would be diseases of old age and mild flu or fever or etc.

 

Based on general demographic distribution the population of 65 years old and above are likely to be around 5 - 10%. There might be no reason the service can not be met adequately. Misused of allocations; wastages on medication and overstaff might have been the issues that wreaked havoc to the existing system. A friend of mine experienced waiting with mom for 5 hours to meet one of the 12 specialists in a government hospital while there were only 20 waiting patients with 5 minutes each allocation time prior to our turn. His mother was dismissed in 5 minutes without being informed the cause of the discomfort nor the interest to investigate the cause nor the proper treatment. They are showing how inefficient-overstaff and underqualified the personnel have been. Mass production of graduates especially in professional areas like doctors; lawyers; accountants and etc have lowered the entrance screening points and hence the quality of eventual outcomes. Over supply of ill-prepared graduates are reabsorbed and paid by the government as government servants. This stretches out the allocations. Pain killers and other prescriptions were given at the rate of three months provision each visit. It gives an impression the medication should be taken daily like candies regardless of the possible side effect(s)........... Basic test tubes for blood tests are imported quality from Europe while there are generic branches of local manufacturing products available. Expensive equipments with the latest technologies are sometimes purchased but do not know how to use hence left gather dust at corners. Essential facilities take years to be approved. Management of allocation and operation are hence the keys not privatizing the system.

 

Shall government forego being healthcare provider but become insurance provider instead the costs are going to be exorbitant. The deficit is going to be having multiple effects on daily lives e.g. inflation; increase of unaccounted poverty rate; poor quality of life etc. The poor might have difficulty to meet the requirements of purchasing daily necessities not to mention committing to pay anything else that could cost as little as 10 USD per month. Therefore....... this idea is probably far fetched by the standard of living in developing countries. Private practice in healthcare should be encouraged to raise the quality and standard of performance but not imposed as standard measure to be complied or outsourced by the government.

 

Regarding telemedicines......... it has been an excellent idea....... Watched a korean drama "The Medical Ship" some times ago. It is a story about lives of doctors living on board of a medical ship. Telemedicine was introduced near the end of the drama jeopardizing the operation of the ship. The drama also highlighted the troubles with telemedicine whereby the technology might be too advance for the elderly or staff at the remote areas; the specialists in the cities incharged of being supervisors to remote treatment might be too busy to pick up the calls nor to response in time; those exiled doctors in remote areas who might be expert in certain fields would be found useless or wasted shall they have to refer every flue and fever before they issue medication.

 

In a nutshell........ the key of success might be in the details on how these two concepts could work out in targeted countries. Otherwise....... it might be just another money game where a lot are pulled to be invested but holes are left to be patched now and then; here and there...........

3. It was asked

Would you be comfortable taking money from Wall Street if that allowed you to scale this incomparably faster and make care available to the poorest of the poor? ................... Stated differently, are you uncomfortable making money off the backs of the poor

 

Points taken from one of the participants..........

From the quote above taken from the script are we correct in assuming that the dilemma is: if we should take money from wall street and donations or shall we take money from the poor to make our profits??

 

Regarding the ethical issue related to how money is being used to avoid taxes ....... it is commonly agreed that the governments who use our money like tap water inefficiently and wastefully should be allowed minimum access to our hard earned money....... Therefore....... channeling it to tax exempted zones for greater good is not wrong or unethical. If this effort is generating money sustainably along the way it is even better.

 

But to take money from the poor so that profits can be generated by sere number of the crowd......... no matter how small the amount it is unethical......... Our initial aim is to help the poor NOT to make them poorer with things that they might or might not need.

 

 

4. paragon or pirate

copied points of discussion from one of the participants:

Reading the introduction about biopiracy right has opened my mind to ponder where should the line to right be placed. Further into the interview........ I'm truly disappointed. If the largest pharmaceutical company started off as pirating a flu vaccine produced by the west and reduced the production steps from 20 to 12 steps we might have a big problem.

 

1.    bird flu virus is known to be unstable RNA virus. Due to its instability the mutation rate would be very high. Therefore..... they have been playing catch up. The moment they discovered the first strain of virus they plunged into vaccine production to save the pigs or the chickens. Few months later before or shortly after the vaccine is produced a second strain of virus was discovered and announced. This chase of discovery-vaccine production-discovery might have continued due to the high instability of bird flu RNA virus. Therefore........ there might never be an effective shot of vaccine suitable for this outbreak. But a lot of money has been involved to turn a few cents worth of vaccine into tens of dollars or more per shot.

 

2.    Indian company has produced the pirated vaccine by reducing the procedure from 20 steps to 12. If we may recall the recent dispute regarding the necessity of vaccine................... I guess this is where the problem is originated. Pirated vaccines might have not been tested before using on human and produced unwanted side effects that chosen to be ignored?? Those who are boycotting (if not mistaken) started from large developing countries like India and China. Then it spred to involve many parts of the world disclosing evidents of the under reported side effects of pirated vaccines. But the disclosure was confused and generalized under "Vaccination" as a whole. Hence the ongoing dispute begins whether vaccination should be a compulsory thing or optional and etc......... But the root cause might have been the quality of the products.........

 

This interview has changed my perception on all Indian entrepreneurs and professors of Harvard interviewed and involved in this course - from admiration to the highest degree of disappointment.........

 

Is that not an effect of alphabetical order or something?

 

[Boat + 1,323]

You boys need to refresh your memory on the Virus timeline. 

https://www.defense.gov/Explore/Spotlight/Coronavirus/DOD-Response-Timeline/

So when did Trump shut down travel and the borders? Who decided what was essential trade and contact? 
I believe y’all want to win an election and are not concerned at all with the actual events that took place. 
Non partisan truth is like hunting for gems. Gotta move a lot of crap to find just a little.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 10/24/2020 at 9:06 PM, Eyes Wide Open said:

If he wins Wisconsin, the war in courts begins. 

Any close count state will be disputed, especially if they have allowed late counting of mail in ballots. 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

America's problem is that technologically from shale oil it is hard to economically produce diesel as one of the main petroleum products.

For this you need to blend light shale fractions with heavy oil. Recently, this heavy oil has been used more and more often in the Russian Urals in connection with sanctions on Venezula.

In addition, old American refineries are rather for heavier types of crude oil because no one thought about light shale oil back then.

This IMHO kills all theories of America's energy independence in general - US may be even a net exporter of oil, but it will never be independent unless someone would still be willing to invest many billions in changing the technology cycle in private refineries.

It is two in the morning in Poland so I will limit myself to the link for those who are interested. Anas Alhajii explains for a few minutes the question of why crude quality matters in the video below on youtube

In general, the situation is that if America suddenly could not import several million barrels of oil and export several million barrels of oil or oil products, it would simply suffocate with excess oil that American refineries cannot use.

It will of course never happen but thats single most important problem with real US energy indeendence or global domination

As far as I know US shale is becoming ligther according to API density and thats becoming a problem according to Anas Alhajii.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4HrzxsQuwA

On US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran on the Ural / Brent bonus, Russia has gained $ 3-4 compared to the pre-Trump government level. Not 3-4 dollars on oil prices, only 3-4 dollars on the premium / discount to Brent. In this matter, I will agree to the Polish government, unfortunately quite crazy for several years, that the Russian Ural oil is less and less profitable for the Polish Lotos and Orlen. due to sulphation and the increasingly higher price for several years compared to Brent.

The only culprit for this is not as always in polish massmedia Putin, Gazprom Rosneft or Lukoil, but the Trump team imposing sanctions on two large heavy oil producers, i.e. Iran and Venezuela.

Quantitatively, Russian oil exports to the US have recently amounted to 500-700 thousand barrels per day. This is generally 1/4 or sometimes even more than 1/3 of the widely discussed growing Russian oil exports to China. In this context Russia oil exports are perfectly diversified - 2 million to China, 700.000 to US rest to Europe.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTIM_NUS-NRS_1&f=M

If we are on oilprice.com let me cite oilprice.com

Quote

Russia exported 1.078 million tons of fuel oil to the United States last month, equal to more than 7 million barrels, Reuters has reported, citing data from traders and calculations from Refinitiv Eikon.

The July total was a 16-percent increase on June as U.S. refiners had to replace lost barrels of Venezuelan heavy oil following U.S. sanctions on Caracas. Many refiners have had to resort to using fuel oil instead of heavy crude because of these sanctions as the by-product of oil refining can replace heavy crude in refineries that cannot operate without it.

In fact, the Venezuelan sanctions, along with OPEC+ production cuts, have created a serious shortage of heavy crude on the market, leading to higher prices—in some cases prohibitively high—and the closure of some refineries.

The shortage was in part triggered by the seasonal jump in consumption of the heavy oil derivative: in the Middle East, imports of high-sulfur fuel oil rise during the summer months because it is used for electricity generation and demand for electricity rises during the hottest season of the year. At the same time, India was buying more high-sulfur fuel oil, too, with imports from January to July three times higher than imports for the same period of last year.

Now that OPEC+ has begun to relax its production cuts, more heavy crude would be coming into markets, so the deficit should shrink from half a million barrels daily in July to some 100,000 bpd by the end of the year.

Yet Russian fuel oil exports to the United States have been rising even before the current crisis began. Last year, Russia exported 11 million tons of fuel oil to the United States, Reuters noted in its report, which was twice as much as it exported in 2018, as refiners were attracted to the low price of the feedstock combined with low freight rates.

Quote

Russia’s exports of petroleum products to the United States more than doubled in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period last year, reaching their highest levels since at least 2004, Russian outlet RBC reported, citing Russian customs data.

Russia’s oil products exports to the U.S. jumped to 9.1 million tons between January and June 2020, up from 4 million tons for the same period in 2019.

The U.S. was Russia’s second-largest buyer of oil products – accounting for 12 percent of Russia’s petroleum products exports – after the Netherlands, which accounted for 16.3 percent of all oil product exports, the customs data showed.

The U.S. has been importing higher volumes of Russian petroleum products since April last year, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

In the first half of 2020, U.S. importers apparently found Russian oil products more attractive in terms of pricing, and they also had to replace oil products from Venezuela which is under U.S. sanctions, Raiffeisenbank analyst Andrey Polischuk told RBC, commenting on the increase in Russian oil exports to the United States.

The U.S. has been raising its imports of fuel oil from Russia over the past year and a half after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Venezuela’s exports, Reuters reported last month, quoting data from Refinitiv Eikon.

Venezuela’s heavy crude oil is suitable to process in complex refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast, but the sanctions have cut off Venezuelan oil flows to the United States. 

Last year, when the U.S. began slapping sanctions on Nicolas Maduro’s regime, refiners started to raise their imports of fuel oil from Russia, importing a record-high volume of 11 million tons for the full year 2019, double the fuel oil imports from Russia in the previous year. 

In July 2020, Russia exported 1.078 million tons of fuel oil to the United States, equal to more than 7 million barrels, and a 16-percent increase on June as U.S. refiners had to replace lost barrels of Venezuelan heavy oil following U.S. sanctions on Caracas.

Quote

The Russia’s Urals oil reached record-breaking premiums against the North Sea Brent benchmark throughout the monitoring history since 1990, Argus agency says in its review.

The Urals premium in Northwestern Europe added $1.55/barrel vs. the North Sea Dated Brent and reached $2.3 a barrel [CIF Rotterdam] last week, Argus reports. In absolute terms, Urals grew by $3.18 a barrel to $36.7 per barrel, CIF Rotterdam.

The price for Urals batches with the volume of 80,000 tonnes increased to $37.20 per barrel in the Mediterranean, CIF Augusta. The blend premium rose to $2.8 per barrel against the North Sea Dated Brent.

Urals seaborne exports are expected to decline by 37,000 barrels per day or by 340,000 tonnes against May to 1.3 mln barrels daily or 5.44 mln tonnes in June 2020.

 

Edited October 30, 2020 by Tomasz

[specinho + 469]

On 10/29/2020 at 12:08 AM, SUZNV said:

Originally BRI were only a  way for China to export their construction services and selling material and lending money, similar to ODA to developing countries. We lend you money, using our contractors, our labors, buying our material and machines, a large part of money go back to the lending country companies while the borrower benefit of the income from the project and still have to pay back the debt while inside China the local projects may be a source for corruption.

When Xin became top, he turned these into BRI and the projects are encouraged to match his China plan no matter if it is necessary or not, for example the "Silk Road" only has value when it is completed from Europe to China and used regularly.  The borrower will ask why should I borrow money for something in far future like that so China needs to promises on anything with very small deposits from the borrowers, and the same like some projects above, bribe the borrowers gov to  get the projects approved.

Local projects in China will be in Yuan for sure. All the BRI loans are denominated by US dollars. It does not mean China lend dollars to these loan, the USD may not leave China at all because services, materials, labor etc. are all from China but the borrowers will have to pay in USD, China may borrow USD to keep inflation down for these loans though. If BRI freeze with non-covid issues, it will hurt Xi reputation within China. If BRI continue, yuan may face high inflation unless China borrowing more USD for reserve. Covid19 may make these projects stop without any income and the borrowers cannot pay for it while the deposit are too small and the projects could not complete. China will still have to pay the interest for the USD they borrow though. This links to the internal Yuan debt situation in China.

 

It might be how it was back then where our quality outputs (especially parts) are exported to the world especially developed countries who could pay ........

Imagine this scenario, this region is developing or less developed....... all raw materials are cheaply available because they are abundant and of no use or less usages to the locals........ Shall there is something we need, it might be cheaper to just source it locally, is it not? Compared to transport it from afar, the time, the costs, the management etc might give a new accounting look, or no? This brings up the locals economy particularly in areas involved.........

Not everyone could afford sea fares back then but most would have caravan or at least one or two camels, donkeys, horses, hunds etc. Silk road was popular not just because of Europe but also Middle East countries. Spices mainly, cotton, silk, tea, germs, metals etc might be of essential. Each culture has their own pride in their own civilization achieved. Hence, not many other things might be popular or easily accepted  ......... The value might have been created when the linkage is done to the local society and the adjacent places regardless of what would be in trade....... or no?

Not necessary......... Shall one wants things to be easier, one could just sell things brought in from China in Ren Min Bi. You could, of course, choose to pay in USD or Ren Min Bi or your local currency, receivable in your country. Hence, foreign reserve increases, regardless of the currencies traded in. Why is there a need to borrow USD though?

[SUZNV + 1,197]

47 minutes ago, specinho said:

It might be how it was back then where our quality outputs (especially parts) are exported to the world especially developed countries who could pay ........

Imagine this scenario, this region is developing or less developed....... all raw materials are cheaply available because they are abundant and of no use or less usages to the locals........ Shall there is something we need, it might be cheaper to just source it locally, is it not? Compared to transport it from afar, the time, the costs, the management etc might give a new accounting look, or no? This brings up the locals economy particularly in areas involved.........

Not everyone could afford sea fares back then but most would have caravan or at least one or two camels, donkeys, horses, hunds etc. Silk road was popular not just because of Europe but also Middle East countries. Spices mainly, cotton, silk, tea, germs, metals etc might be of essential. Each culture has their own pride in their own civilization achieved. Hence, not many other things might be popular or easily accepted  ......... The value might have been created when the linkage is done to the local society and the adjacent places regardless of what would be in trade....... or no?

Not necessary......... Shall one wants things to be easier, one could just sell things brought in from China in Ren Min Bi. You could, of course, choose to pay in USD or Ren Min Bi or your local currency, receivable in your country. Hence, foreign reserve increases, regardless of the currencies traded in. Why is there a need to borrow USD though?

China fixed the RMB/USD rate. They can't just lending out RMB without  borrowing back a portion in USD to prevent inflation (the project itself didn't have any value until complete). They wouldn't want other pay them RMB because if they could lose the lending value if they have to decide to drop the RMB values. 

The value of investment after 2012 have to match with Xi's objectives instead of the returns of investments decide only. It may be for geopolitical and not economics value projects.

Silk Road had value in the past because there were no sea and air transports. Before Rome traded with Parthia, Parthia traded with China and all came together to Silk Road, each part of the ancient Silk Road has the value itself but when connected together, the total values will increase multi folds and more and more cities in the between got richer. Now they have the sea for cheap and air for fast. Silk Road is not the only way anymore but have to compete to others. And before was on horses or camels caravan, so people have to rest somewhere, nowadays it needs much less resting places for rails. And not many people have a demand to stop at nowhere. ME have lots of potential conflicts themselves, one unstable area on the road will render the whole road meaningless. And the more stops, the slower the transportations. 

Edited October 30, 2020 by SUZNV

[specinho + 469]

On 10/29/2020 at 3:09 AM, 0R0 said:

The problem of the BRI and particularly the "Sillk Road" is trying to undo the history of its failure due to cheaper sea transport. High speed rail corridors to Europe are 10X more expensive to operate than sea transport. Slower than air trans. and limited in capacity.

China will lose their debt default handovers of projects to governments that repudiate their contracts. They are already denouncing them (e.g. Tanzania).

Xi will have egg all over his face. His break with the security leadership of the CCP after it was disclosed that Biden and Xi were in an assassination and theft plot to take CCP oligarch assets abroad and split the profits after they are "suicided" or "accidented" to death. It pretty much lost him the CCP leadership's support. Xi's days are numbered. These folks are threatening carpet bombing the world with bribery and blackmail deal documentation with the heads of many governments, companies, influential people in the US and globally. Biden's "plausible deniability" is not going to help any of them. Not Harris, not Feinstein, not the Clintons, nor anyone else that is being lined up to take their turn in the deep fryer.

undo history? not at all......... may be to create history........

Do you mean Tanzania is denouncing the contract sign in 2013? Tanzania will need to repay what was invested with penalty stated in every common contract (like malaysia's East Coast Rail Road and China). Or the leader who executes the default or signed the contract and causes the country to lose money for no reason, shall there is no better solution suggested, be removed, or no??

Xi changed the rules, to have a non contested seat that he is sitting on, very soon after his appointment...... The country can only choose to unite and stand with him by giving their best so that the country is strong and steady under one leadership till whatever needed to be done is done, instead of belittled by developed world including Singapore. He was a farmer trained, in remote area. This grass root leader, appointed to the top from the bottom, might have a good view of both world of the poor and the rich. Shall help by the chosen officers, the country would provide something others could learn from soon, or no?

Biden has been weak in his campaign statements. Although a good diplomatic person, like Hillary Clinton, this character is not what US needs in time of uncertainty and chaos at the moment. Trump, no doubt, has his short comings, but he has proven to be stern and daring in issues important to US despite some of the decisions might not be that popular or well accepted. @Tomaz - regarding oil...... Trump is encouraging local consumption of local products including oil and gas. Those who are looking for further tax rebates would need to help him getting what it takes to get it done, or no?? Only when the country is running at surplus that you can expect no tax, no?

Shall you are growing a farmer leader next, like the first president Lincoln was, and like the rest of the world, by all means, it might be time for a change........... no?

 

[specinho + 469]

1 hour ago, SUZNV said:

China fixed the RMB/USD rate. They can't just lending out RMB without  borrowing back a portion in USD to prevent inflation (the project itself didn't have any value until complete). They wouldn't want other pay them RMB because if they could lose the lending value if they have to decide to drop the RMB values.

I am not sure how this works..... but........ if not mistaken, US decided to deflate RMB, with the consent of China, to reduce foreign debts owed to China.....

Imagine if you are an investor to a foreign land........ with plenty of cash stashing high somewhere or every where........ Shall you choose to empower by lending out the money to someone you might or might not trust, it could be in any currency acceptable by both parties. Shall you choose to do it yourself, giving upfront credit to debtor country, you are not requiring USD for paying domestic  products of China, no? Converting to a standard measure, USD, has been a convenient concept until lately....... Not sure if anyone could recall I mentioned something like 'purchasing power parity and law of one price' from a course named 'Macroeconomics for a sustainable planet by SDGX?? It basically says that '  a good must cost the same everywhere when it is expressed in a common currency '.....   This guidance might have caused much inflation of few hundred folds in one product, misused by smart businessmen all over the world...... Outside of this concept, wherever the old rules applied, they are largely alright........ Our innovative thinking in the modern world usually brings disaster compared to well thought common sense of elder generations.......

Edited October 30, 2020 by specinho

[SUZNV + 1,197]

3 hours ago, specinho said:

I am not sure how this works..... but........ if not mistaken, US decided to deflate RMB, with the consent of China, to reduce foreign debts owed to China.....

Imagine if you are an investor to a foreign land........ with plenty of cash stashing high somewhere or every where........ Shall you choose to empower by lending out the money to someone you might or might not trust, it could be in any currency acceptable by both parties. Shall you choose to do it yourself, giving upfront credit to debtor country, you are not requiring USD for paying domestic  products of China, no? Converting to a standard measure, USD, has been a convenient concept until lately....... Not sure if anyone could recall I mentioned something like 'purchasing power parity and law of one price' from a course named 'Macroeconomics for a sustainable planet by SDGX?? It basically says that '  a good must cost the same everywhere when it is expressed in a common currency '.....   This guidance might have caused much inflation of few hundred folds in one product, misused by smart businessmen all over the world...... Outside of this concept, wherever the old rules applied, they are largely alright........ Our innovative thinking in the modern world usually brings disaster compared to well thought common sense of elder generations.......

If the loan from my personal account, then it is right. If it is from China's central bank, it is injecting RMB to economy aka printing money that means RMB face inflation. To not decrease RMB/USD rate because of this money printing, China will have to set out a certain reserve of USD. And the common money for the borrower will be USD in case they RMB devalue and the borrower simply pays the loan cheaply. The loan will be mortgaged for a period of time not repay right away to China Central Bank after completed to take RMB out of the economy to delate the RMB.

Besides how long will the Silk Road be completed so the poor countries can repay form the profits of that road? No one for their country benefit will borrow money for something that has a vague deadline while still have to pay interest for that loan because it depends on the completion in every other countries on the silk road. And will anyone use it when it is complete if the oil price is low while it reduces cost for air and shipping. 

Same argument with the Kra canal in Thailand for the belt. Not guarantee good return form the investment and no deadline. You cannot project the costs and profits without deadline.

Edited October 30, 2020 by SUZNV

[0R0 + 6,251]

12 hours ago, specinho said:

Do you mean Tanzania is denouncing the contract sign in 2013? Tanzania will need to repay what was invested with penalty stated in every common contract (like malaysia's East Coast Rail Road and China). Or the leader who executes the default or signed the contract and causes the country to lose money for no reason, shall there is no better solution suggested, be removed, or no??

Meaning that they repudiate the contracts. "only a drunkard could have signed this contract" not pay anything. Cease control of the completed projects and throw out Chinese nationals and the diplomatic corps out of the country if China resists. But resolutions would be negotiated in most cases with Chinese control being the one thing that goes. The West and  the World Bank had been there for 50 years before China started in development banking. They are clueless. It is all just a colossal waste and graft.

12 hours ago, specinho said:

Xi changed the rules, to have a non contested seat that he is sitting on, very soon after his appointment...... The country can only choose to unite and stand with him by giving their best so that the country is strong and steady under one leadership till whatever needed to be done is done, instead of belittled by developed world including Singapore. He was a farmer trained, in remote area. This grass root leader, appointed to the top from the bottom, might have a good view of both world of the poor and the rich. Shall help by the chosen officers, the country would provide something others could learn from soon, or no?

Xi still needs people following his orders and support of the power structure. Xi is not a "peoples representative" he was the leader straddling the old guard and reformers that the old guard set up in power as soon as Deng died and they came out of the woodwork to reclaim their power. He is an "engineer" by training and was not an actual farmer. What China teaches us is what not to do. 

Together with leaders across the world that he bought, Xi is busy killing off high ranking billionaire party elite and splitting the proceeds between the foreign leaders, himself and the Western bankers who facilitate it. The Biden documents were out for 3 years with copies circulating and FBI leaking content from its investigation.Qanon was being fed info and the Chinese leaders eventually confirmed that Xi is killing them methodically for their money and to get them out of the way. They are spilling the beans about foreign leader's deals documented as part of their blackmail files collected for each "asset" Xi is in deep trouble with his own core CCP aparat. He might not survive much longer.

Biden is a crook with no skills other than glad handing. Definitely no statesman and has really nothing to show for his time in office but for circumventing the state dept. and using his position to do foreign deals for himself and sell out foreign policy in return (that was Clinton's role and she quit because he was taking "her" money. He was chosen as the guy to stop the Dem leadership from being prosecuted because he had skin in the game as he was in it to his neck. He promised the enviro-Marxist wing of the party to take on the Bernie Sanders platform and they all dropped out of the race to install him in place.

[specinho + 469]

19 hours ago, SUZNV said:

Besides how long will the Silk Road be completed so the poor countries can repay form the profits of that road? No one for their country benefit will borrow money for something that has a vague deadline while still have to pay interest for that loan because it depends on the completion in every other countries on the silk road. And will anyone use it when it is complete if the oil price is low while it reduces cost for air and shipping. 

Same argument with the Kra canal in Thailand for the belt. Not guarantee good return form the investment and no deadline. You cannot project the costs and profits without deadline.

Not sure if it is right to assume that you view it as not a cooperative project but a one sided monopoly??

Common scenario dictates that an investment project would bring up relevant market values e.g. accommodation or housing, food or agricultural activities, restaurants, raw  and manufacturing industries, besides constructing roads and ports..... Depending on the level of co-dependency, although the road itself might not bring in much expected profit but the act itself would reawaken the economy of those very likely sleeping towns, no??

All projects aim to achieve win-win. Shall one lend out money and expect the debtor governments to do the work with self initiative citizens or unsupervised, under such a hot temperature along the belt, there is a high probability that the debtors or locals might prefer to lay back under the shade frolicking their camels with their heavenly dropped free money, no?? Our perspectives might be influenced by information feeders. Thought of something I saw some times ago...... here is it:

Once upon a time, a monkey saw a beautiful full moon upon a lake. The monkey thought:"Wow! What a beautiful thing. Let me scoop it up for a closer look." So, the monkey scooped the moon up with both hands from the water body......... The moon zig-zagged and dissappeared in the palms. It tried again and again. It called its friends to help. But in vain........... A newcomer monkey didn't know what they were doing. It thought they were trying to rescue the moon from the water. So, it suggested to drink up the water of the lake for that purpose..............All monkeys agreed and ended up with tummies full of water. They laid belly up for support......and the moon was still there, undisturbed, on the surface of the lake............The moral of the story is........... you need to know where to look in order to differentiate illusion and reality.......... And the result of having monkeys as friends might be as mentioned.........

[specinho + 469]

12 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Meaning that they repudiate the contracts. "only a drunkard could have signed this contract" not pay anything. Cease control of the completed projects and throw out Chinese nationals and the diplomatic corps out of the country if China resists. But resolutions would be negotiated in most cases with Chinese control being the one thing that goes. The West and  the World Bank had been there for 50 years before China started in development banking. They are clueless. It is all just a colossal waste and graft.

1. Tanzania signed, didn't they? What were they thinking when they signed? They should evaluate their gains from other by-sectors e.g. food and lodging, growth of local industries, jobs created, profit shares so far etc. If, what they are doing is sere barbaric, trying to get things done for free, this violation of contract might land them a law suit. The penalty might not stop at monetary repatriation to the creditors but withdrawal of all other investors because their mentality or attitude is not worth helping at all..........

2. regarding effort of the West and the world Bank...... The elder generations have done great jobs trying to bridge the gap between those fallen behind and those that are ahead....... But, as a grown tree would have dried branches, an organization that big would have less capable people chosen out of convenient to help out.......... For the rest of the stories, please kindly refer to the story of having monkeys as friends mentioned above to SUZNV............

Edited October 31, 2020 by specinho

[SUZNV + 1,197]

1 hour ago, specinho said:

Not sure if it is right to assume that you view it as not a cooperative project but a one sided monopoly??

Common scenario dictates that an investment project would bring up relevant market values e.g. accommodation or housing, food or agricultural activities, restaurants, raw  and manufacturing industries, besides constructing roads and ports..... Depending on the level of co-dependency, although the road itself might not bring in much expected profit but the act itself would reawaken the economy of those very likely sleeping towns, no??

All projects aim to achieve win-win. Shall one lend out money and expect the debtor governments to do the work with self initiative citizens or unsupervised, under such a hot temperature along the belt, there is a high probability that the debtors or locals might prefer to lay back under the shade frolicking their camels with their heavenly dropped free money, no?? Our perspectives might be influenced by information feeders. Thought of something I saw some times ago...... here is it:

Once upon a time, a monkey saw a beautiful full moon upon a lake. The monkey thought:"Wow! What a beautiful thing. Let me scoop it up for a closer look." So, the monkey scooped the moon up with both hands from the water body......... The moon zig-zagged and dissappeared in the palms. It tried again and again. It called its friends to help. But in vain........... A newcomer monkey didn't know what they were doing. It thought they were trying to rescue the moon from the water. So, it suggested to drink up the water of the lake for that purpose..............All monkeys agreed and ended up with tummies full of water. They laid belly up for support......and the moon was still there, undisturbed, on the surface of the lake............The moral of the story is........... you need to know where to look in order to differentiate illusion and reality.......... And the result of having monkeys as friends might be as mentioned.........

 

In short, it is not big secret that most projects BRI is China monopoly, kind of exporting corruption.  Where else can a gov borrows  money from a country  who can bribe you back the money without worrying that some independent observer will expose you later? Japan ODA company can bribe as well, but later on that company may be exposed and it is a slap in the borrowing country gov.  In most cases, cost will increases later and the new gov will be bribed again to continue the project. If new gov cannot be bribed, their only other choice is the deal is off, pay for what you borrow up so far with your country's resources or tax for non completed projects (and off course no revenue from it that), given that most of the money paying for the labors & equipment of Chinese companies already. So China loses very little to cancel the debt to trade for that country vote in international organizations. In many cases the projected revenue were bloated in the first place to persuade the public, with very promising future for the people, everyone will benefit from the project.

Your arguments so far are based on the assumption that borrowing governments truly think for their countries benefits, not corruptible, they are not stupid to have bad deals with China while everything is up front, the cost and the timeline won't be extendable and the consequences are just bad luck and that government will have to pay fair and square.

In reality the borrowing governments don't care as they are long gone by then, with the "commission" and the future governments will pay with their people's tax or country' s resources, not the ex government members that approved the deal and who would pay for that with their pocket money. The ones who made decision hold no responsibility in paying back the debt. 

I don't argue with you in the perfect world, both yours and mines are common senses.

Edited October 31, 2020 by SUZNV

[0R0 + 6,251]

15 hours ago, specinho said:

1. Tanzania signed, didn't they? What were they thinking when they signed? They should evaluate their gains from other by-sectors e.g. food and lodging, growth of local industries, jobs created, profit shares so far etc. If, what they are doing is sere barbaric, trying to get things done for free, this violation of contract might land them a law suit. The penalty might not stop at monetary repatriation to the creditors but withdrawal of all other investors because their mentality or attitude is not worth helping at all..........

2. regarding effort of the West and the world Bank...... The elder generations have done great jobs trying to bridge the gap between those fallen behind and those that are ahead....... But, as a grown tree would have dried branches, an organization that big would have less capable people chosen out of convenient to help out.......... For the rest of the stories, please kindly refer to the story of having monkeys as friends mentioned above to SUZNV............

They have legal backing to challenge the contracts' bona fides. Practically all of them were done by blatantly bribed leaders who didn't even bother to cover up the bribery.

As with the distorted view of China "helping" anyone being a goal, it wasn't. Just like World Bank loans coming in to help extract bankers out of their bad loans to these same countries.

China would lose any case other than those where it bought the judges. China would not have the clout to extract a reparation. And if they try, they may be permanently out of business there.