Rethinking election outcomes for oil.

[0R0 + 6,251]

Here is a professional bettor on political outcomes. The interview is riveting. He pulls no punches and says things I have been thinking and calculating out but didn't write down because they are so far off from the polls. But basically, where the vote is in, Trump gains a lead. Where most of the vote is still outstanding, Biden has good leads, but the margin on the election day vote is far stronger for Trump, far  stronger margin than in 2016. Biden is going to be bathing in the red columns across many states. He lost the youth vote, lost the Hispanic vote, lost a good chunk of the black vote. The polls are simply works of fiction by the one person in 100 that finally agreed to participate in a poll.

Enjoy.

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

3 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Here is a professional bettor on political outcomes. The interview is riveting. He pulls no punches and says things I have been thinking and calculating out but didn't write down because they are so far off from the polls. But basically, where the vote is in, Trump gains a lead. Where most of the vote is still outstanding, Biden has good leads, but the margin on the election day vote is far stronger for Trump, far  stronger margin than in 2016. Biden is going to be bathing in the red columns across many states. He lost the youth vote, lost the Hispanic vote, lost a good chunk of the black vote. The polls are simply works of fiction by the one person in 100 that finally agreed to participate in a poll.

Enjoy.

 

Biden has nothing to offer.  He has no enthusiasm.  As far as energy, the only tank that is working is the auxiliary one.  Main tank is history.  

Trump has more energy than most men in their 40s or 50s, and he's coherent, immersed in reality and the day to day grind of fighting major battles constantly which is what a President does.  At times, each and every day, it seems half the world is after a piece of him and is calling him a murderer and a failure, but he brushes it off, fights back and continues his focus.  And woe the adversary that takes him on: the man has stamina like few we've seen before.  He is fighting major trade wars on both halves of the world, he is making the world share in the cost of its defense, he will blatantly tell the world when they don't make sense, or at least not sense to Americans (unapologetically), he is making peace deals, he has told OPEC in front of the UN General Assembly that they are crooks and he doesn't like it, and told everyone there they shouldn't like it either.  Trump is looking at economies, jobs, getting rid of this faux pandemic and those that are propagating it.

Trump wins because he addresses the people's agenda, not his own or those of special interests.  The Left will and does scoff at any statement like that, but that doesn't make it any less true.

The last election was won because the people were tired of the old ways and of feeling not only like they didn't matter, but that their very livelihoods were being given away to every country in the world instead of someone fighting for them.  Trump may be no prince, but he does focus on common sense issues that drive results towards people and is focussed on issues that the average person cares about.  The Left has never gotten it, that a strong corporate business environment inside the U.S. works for the U.S. people, at home and in their wallets where it matters.  Tax breaks work for everyone, fairy god mothers aside.  The debt, as opposed to what detractors like to spout, is manageable and at no higher levels than what any corporation would and does maintain in any given year.  He gives hope (what the Left calls lies).

Bottom line: The Left, and particularly Joe Biden and Kamala Harris offer nothing but going back to the old ways; Donald Trump is not out there only making promises.  He has results to point to. Joe's got nothing and Kamala is worrisome.  I'm betting on Donald Trump winning both the Electoral College vote and the popular vote.  But hey, that's just my opinion.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

4 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Here is a professional bettor on political outcomes. The interview is riveting. He pulls no punches and says things I have been thinking and calculating out but didn't write down because they are so far off from the polls. But basically, where the vote is in, Trump gains a lead. Where most of the vote is still outstanding, Biden has good leads, but the margin on the election day vote is far stronger for Trump, far  stronger margin than in 2016. Biden is going to be bathing in the red columns across many states. He lost the youth vote, lost the Hispanic vote, lost a good chunk of the black vote. The polls are simply works of fiction by the one person in 100 that finally agreed to participate in a poll.

Enjoy.

 

The Left for some unknown reason, thinks that manipulating data, especially after what they've tried to do with Covid numbers, will miraculously work for them and swing voters to Joe and Kamala.  People see through both.  What they've done is get out the vote for Trump.  Trump's supporters agree with his foreign policies, which are based on what the average American is willing to invest in foreign matters and what they expect in return, and they sure as hell don't care what any foreign liberal blowhards think about those policies.  The Left doesn't like it, but the same way "W" said you are either with us or against us worked then and it works now.  

[0R0 + 6,251]

Last few polls of the season show Trump gathering a head of steam that may get him more votes than I expected and more states than Cahaly has polled for him.

First is Express' poll from the UK, showing a strong Electoral College win and a slight majority vote for Trump. Judging from the Biden campaign's behavior, they expect something significantly worse.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1354506/us-election-2020-donald-trump-win-poll-democracy-institute-joe-biden-swing-states

Interview with the pollster.

Notable changes recently are the purchase of guns by white suburban women and by black urban women. Hardly anything is more predictive of a Republican vote than gun ownership.

Highlights

Marital Status – Trump’s National Job Approval

Married 64%

Single 29%

Policy

-This is significant, as the Millennials age into household formation and have kids, they are moving away from supporting the progressive/left/green agendas and seeing things differently. Which means the Dems have to move right, or just not be relevant since by 2024, most of the Millennials will be married parents.

Q “Which issue is most important to you?”

Law & order/riots/violence = 29%

Economy/jobs = 29%

Education = 16%

Coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic = 20%

Immigration = 6%

Q “Does alleged Biden family corruption make you more or less likely to vote for Joe Biden for president?”

More likely = 4%

Less likely = 21%

No difference = 75%

Q “In light of alleged Biden family corruption, do you consider Joe Biden a national security threat?”

Yes = 54%

No = 46%

Enthusiasm Gap?

Q. “Are you strongly or very enthusiastic about your choice of candidate?”

Trump voters = 86%

Biden voters = 52%

This is a bit attenuated from the comparison of primary support for the two candidates of 94% and 56%. Though you generally use this as a guide for turnouts of both parties, this time there is a strong anti Trump vote component dominating Biden's "support" at 57%. I don't know how that affects turnout on the Dem side. EV differences in % of total vote in PA MN WI NH indicate that Rep participation is actually higher than the Dem participation once you go from say 37% of the vote in PA where Reps are avoiding mail in and early voting, to 93% of the vote as in TX. The remaining vote is strongly Rep well beyond poll predictions. Even the pro Trump polls. There may be some core Dem states that may be on the line. Basham is guessing Oregon might be a surprise if the rural voters turn out in a big way.

Electoral College Vote Projection (if election voting mirrors these poll results)

270 needed to win

Trump = 326 [picks-up Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Nevada]

Biden = 212

 

 

[specinho + 468]

On 11/1/2020 at 3:57 AM, SUZNV said:

In short, it is not big secret that most projects BRI is China monopoly, kind of exporting corruption. 

Your arguments so far are based on the assumption that borrowing governments truly think for their countries benefits, not corruptible, they are not stupid to have bad deals with China while everything is up front, the cost and the timeline won't be extendable and the consequences are just bad luck and that government will have to pay fair and square.

In reality the borrowing governments don't care as they are long gone by then, with the "commission" and the future governments will pay with their people's tax or country' s resources, not the ex government members that approved the deal and who would pay for that with their pocket money. The ones who made decision hold no responsibility in paying back the debt. 

I don't argue with you in the perfect world, both yours and mines are common senses.

in fact, overly smart......... if not mistaken, those contracts often with astronomical values for 10 cm of work, not just offered by China, are done with the following guidelines:

1. The investors will put out money for the project. You can do it for free involving your contractors through tender or appointment and part of our workforce......... FREE?? If you were the government officer, would you agree??........

2. But........... you need to increase the toll once a year. If you fail, your government has to compensate the builder with a said amount of compensation....... Plus......... there is an minimum interest to pay with the agreed installed amount......... All good, right?? Users who want convenience will pay. Judging from the calculations presented, it looks profitable and affordable.........

3. Now, the best part............ Over years of observation, the government has acquired the information that there is an interesting scenario........... if you run your government on deficit, all the time, as a developing world, you can apply to default your payment....... No NEED TO PAY. Whaottt?? Pardon me??

Alright.......... how do we get into this kind of business??

 

[Boat + 1,323]

On 10/24/2020 at 8:52 PM, Dan Warnick said:

For the life of me, I can't see how this cannot become a landslide victory for Trump.  Even the Dem base is not enthused, no matter what the MSM would have you believe.  The Repub base however is quite enthused and take their politics seriously now that so much of the deep state initiatives have been exposed to have been true.  I suspect a lot of Dems are just not going to vote; they can't stand Trump but there's no denying that a Biden ticket may well end in disaster.  Better to not vote, and keep your conscience clear, and then just stay quiet about it.

Yep, that’s me. Can’t stand Trump but not convinced Dems are capable of any real change. Both parties are run by corporations and campaign donations. I do think it’s funny the SCOTUS decided corporations are people. The biggest modern corporations are of course Democratic leaning. The fight for power will never abate but no one fights for the citizens. 
Smaller more local problems I love to gripe about with no faith in government. Like flaring is stupid when your net exporting nat gas. Like why import and refine foreign oil when the US is net exporting oil. All at the expense of US citizen lungs and booming healthcare costs. Yea Dan, I am very 🤫. 😂

Edited November 2, 2020 by Boat

[specinho + 468]

On 11/1/2020 at 6:27 PM, 0R0 said:

They have legal backing to challenge the contracts' bona fides. Practically all of them were done by blatantly bribed leaders who didn't even bother to cover up the bribery.

As with the distorted view of China "helping" anyone being a goal, it wasn't. Just like World Bank loans coming in to help extract bankers out of their bad loans to these same countries.

China would lose any case other than those where it bought the judges. China would not have the clout to extract a reparation. And if they try, they may be permanently out of business there.

bona fide means the absent of fraud or deception............. ??

One interesting thing about law is ........... Law can be turned to allow what you want others to see to be seen, heard and agreed upon, despite skewed.......... for example, quoting from a discussion  in a law course about basic rights........ I opened a bag of chips that was not mine, sampled it, found out and accused. My rightful argument was :" it's part of 'quality control', don't want you to be poisoned". Would that become my natural right to be QC-ing food of others without consent?? Yes and no, right? Depending on who you want to let win, no? Everything in this world might be about granted win and who we let win with.

World Bank started out as kind initiative to help impoverished countries with some capital for the basic necessities like road, sanitation and healthcare systems, no? As the organization gets more and more projects to be considered, something might have gone out of controlled, especially when those righteous and sensible elders were  forced to retire and make way for the youngs no?? When money is concern,............. there will always be problem..........no?

[specinho + 468]

On 11/1/2020 at 10:57 PM, Dan Warnick said:

 He is fighting major trade wars on both halves of the world, he is making the world share in the cost of its defense, he will blatantly tell the world when they don't make sense, or at least not sense to Americans (unapologetically), he is making peace deals, he has told OPEC in front of the UN General Assembly that they are crooks and he doesn't like it, and told everyone there they shouldn't like it either.  Trump is looking at economies, jobs, getting rid of this faux pandemic and those that are propagating it.

The epic was he left climate agreement in a sea of opposing voices and stern accusation........ His reason was "why do I need to pay billions to you yearly with work that I can not see?? (Might as well pay my scientists and entrepreneurs to figure it out, or something like that)............ 

[BLA + 1,666]

On 10/28/2020 at 12:08 PM, SUZNV said:

Originally BRI were only a  way for China to export their construction services and selling material and lending money, similar to ODA to developing countries. We lend you money, using our contractors, our labors, buying our material and machines, a large part of money go back to the lending country companies while the borrower benefit of the income from the project and still have to pay back the debt while inside China the local projects may be a source for corruption. The projects must have predicted values and the accuracy of that depend on how transparent/corruption the borrowers are. Some were really needed others just the borrower gov wanted a project out of corruption, China doesn't care as long as they got some secure like any normal loan, which in many cases , natural resources or ports. 

When Xin became top, he turned these into BRI and the projects are encouraged to match his China plan no matter if it is necessary or not, for example the "Silk Road" only has value when it is completed from Europe to China and used regularly.  The borrower will ask why should I borrow money for something in far future like that so China needs to promises on anything with very small deposits from the borrowers, and the same like some projects above, bribe the borrowers gov to  get the projects approved.

Local projects in China will be in Yuan for sure. All the BRI loans are denominated by US dollars. It does not mean China lend dollars to these loan, the USD may not leave China at all because services, materials, labor etc. are all from China but the borrowers will have to pay in USD, China may borrow USD to keep inflation down for these loans though. If BRI freeze with non-covid issues, it will hurt Xi reputation within China. If BRI continue, yuan may face high inflation unless China borrowing more USD for reserve. Covid19 may make these projects stop without any income and the borrowers cannot pay for it while the deposit are too small and the projects could not complete. China will still have to pay the interest for the USD they borrow though. This links to the internal Yuan debt situation in China.

 

China had struck a deal to buy the U.S. Port at Long Beach. 

The Feds killed the deal.

Trump Administration forced China to sell it back.  

Stated reason Homeland Security.

China investment into infrastructure in Mideast, South America, Europe will backfire. 

Look at the investment Exxon, Conoco and Chevron put in to Venezuela .  Change of government and they are out.

Do you think Iran will stay a vassal state of China ? 

Edited November 3, 2020 by BLA

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 10/26/2020 at 3:21 PM, 0R0 said:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/10/26/no_really_--_dont_pay_attention_to_early_voting_data_144527.html

Early voting is more important this election since Dem's have called for their voters to vote by mail and early. 63% of Dems indicated they would do so. Only 36% of Reps did. Thus anything short of a similar proportion lead in early voting turnout would be underperformance. Particularly since early voting has already taken up most of the 2016 vote count level. So besides the comparison to 2016 where Biden's early voting lead is 10% vs. 13% for Clinton, FL, which polled strongly for Biden is voting (by party registration) is showing far less of a lead than a Dem win would require. The VBM lead so far is 600k in FL vs. a republican early vote advantage already at 230k the early vote so far is 2.08 vs. 2.45 mil. not 36 vs 66 kind of proportion. Dems are starting out very low.

It looks similar in the Midwest, which always swings in the same way as F in trend.

The expected voting division nationally by survey is

Dem 63% early

Rep 36% early nationally,  25% in PA.

From memory

Departures from these ratios indicate a more likely win in the direction of the difference.

Dems are below their bogey in TX, OH in a big way, FL, MI, AZ, MN, WI, NC, NV, which are closer to 4:3 vs 2:1

Dems are even with expectations in PA

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/?view_type=State&demo=Voter Score&demo_val=Super Voter&state=FL&demo2=Registered Party

Anyway, I think this analysis led to some good predictions.

NC and WI are going to be recounted.Not sure the current Biden narrow lead in WI will hold. NC is 100% counted so Trump's lead there is certain. 

PA count may close some of the enormous pro Trump gap, but the Dem lead in EV was too small because of low turnout in Philly.

GA still looks unlikely to close in the AZ kind of way with a reversal, and I still doubt that AZ is actually going to remain a Biden win by the end of the count.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

On 10/24/2020 at 7:28 PM, 0R0 said:

By these more recent results, applying the older 6% bias estimate gets Trump well over 300 EC votes and the popular vote by a smidge.

 

0R0 perhaps you should learn to use real math and not apply "correction factors" that have no place in statistics or science.

How's your covid prediction "math" going?  Clearly even worse.

You have the brains to use math without politically motivated "corrections" that are always wrong.   Try it!  Give logic a chance!

Edited November 5, 2020 by Enthalpic

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

0R0 perhaps you should learn to use real math and not apply "correction factors" that have no place in statistics or science.

How's your covid prediction "math" going?  Clearly even worse.

You have the brains to use math without politically motivated "corrections" that are always wrong.   Try it!  Give logic a chance!

That  is pretty much what happened. Of course, the Dem vote then showed up in the wee hours in 3 dumps of hundred of thousands of votes in one batch, all Biden votes while the counting facilities were announced to be shut down. The reporting from the counting machines is digitally tabulated to the reporting website at each state and shows up on their vote count charts. It should be easy to rectify after a court order to recount properly with observers from both parties as opposed to only Dem ones, or without any observers, or just remove the spikes of votes counted while facilities were officially shut..

i think you are full of it berating someone's efforts for not modeling election fraud into their estimates.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

24 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

That  is pretty much what happened. Of course, the Dem vote then showed up in the wee hours in 3 dumps of hundred of thousands of votes in one batch, all Biden votes while the counting facilities were announced to be shut down. The reporting from the counting machines is digitally tabulated to the reporting website at each state and shows up on their vote count charts. It should be easy to rectify after a court order to recount properly with observers from both parties as opposed to only Dem ones, or without any observers, or just remove the spikes of votes counted while facilities were officially shut..

i think you are full of it berating someone's efforts for not modeling election fraud into their estimates.

it was an error that has already been corrected

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

On 11/3/2020 at 2:01 AM, specinho said:

The epic was he left climate agreement in a sea of opposing voices and stern accusation........ His reason was "why do I need to pay billions to you yearly with work that I can not see?? (Might as well pay my scientists and entrepreneurs to figure it out, or something like that)............ 

Pretty much the way I see it too.  You see, one has to believe climate change is a problem, and then if one does believe it is a problem one needs to see proposals to address it.  IF those proposals make sense and seem worthy of investment, then one may invest.  Sending money to an already corrupt cabal with little or no plan, with no assignments laid out of who is going to do what, without a timeline as to when results or at least milestones may be achieved, without accountability attached to each assignee, without an escape clause, etc. is not something I want to throw 10-50% of my GDP at.  IF the people I'm discussing such things with won't budge, I will keep my investment money and work on what matters to me and my constituents back home.