Covid vaccine?

[Donbarga 0]

Your quoting oil trading up 10% because of new positive news about preventative vaccine is a hoax.

Be honest.  It's all about oil production in jeopardy from a Biden administration.  

 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

No it means higher oil demand growth in next 2 years when we will finally have effective vacine

On the other hand just look on rig count- US oil rig count is about 1/3 of a number needed to produce 11 milion barrels per day - 600 rigs is needed and currently we have only a little more than 200.

You should also look on global rig count on multiyears record low level at the end of October.

It means higher demand growth and lack of supply growth. It doesnt mean 100 $ oil because we have about 8 milions barrrels of spare capacity.

But this means higher oil price in next 2 to 3 years before shale oil production in US coming back stronly.

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 hours ago, Donbarga said:

Your quoting oil trading up 10% because of new positive news about preventative vaccine is a hoax.

Be honest.  It's all about oil production in jeopardy from a Biden administration.  

 

Yes that is a big part of it, but the second part is still real, a vaccine means travel and travel means increased oil consumption after over a year of minimal drilling, any level of resumed activity would require a quick ramp up of production by 5 mil Bbl/day. If you need oil early next year you need to secure it now. In futures or in storage.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

1 hour ago, 0R0 said:

Yes that is a big part of it, but the second part is still real, a vaccine means travel and travel means increased oil consumption after over a year of minimal drilling, any level of resumed activity would require a quick ramp up of production by 5 mil Bbl/day. If you need oil early next year you need to secure it now. In futures or in storage.

What most are overlooking is consumption pattern's. It takes huge investments to create demand and maintaining demand is easy thru price manipulation. Most of these pattern's have been broken and not for just a month or two they are gone. 

How the US recreates, how business communicates and where consumers consume is being rewritten. Amazon is in a very bright spot for now..soon they will dominate retail. I see perhaps 4 yrs before we or the world begin to step out and start openly disposing of disposable income... Little bubbles of course such as the farmers picking up diesel consumption a few months ago..other than that not to many bright spots on the horizon.

Ive personally experienced this, being in OR. we travel and play in RV's. Our mainstay is a land yacht meaning 44ft and a tank, recently we havnt been able to find any  large pads to land on..parks camping grounds etc etc. they are all booked up. Prior to covid we would travel in the RV and just park it when it became boring and take a flight to some destination at whim..No longer the parks are full and the flights have been seververly curtailed...Go figure that out..Winnebago stocks are having huge gains.

Edited November 9, 2020 by Eyes Wide Open