Biden's Green New Deal- Short Term - How Will He Start to Transition Out Of Crude?

[JoMack + 549]

It looks like with all the legal battles by Trump being tossed, Biden will be the next President of the United States.  So, now what is in store for the oil and gas industry?  Biden said he wants to transition away from oil and natural gas and end fracing on federal lands.  Well, that in itself will damage the industry and, by example, we'll take New Mexico which currently produces around 300,000 bbls a day on federal land.  So, if fracing is banned, no drilling can occur since without fracing the companies cannot complete.  So, depletion will occur and by 2021  NM will hit around 200,000 bbls a day.  Depletion occurs offshore as well so let's say another 300,000 bbls is lost.  On the conservative side, we'll say by 2022 production will be down on federal land by 2 million bbls a day. The Keystone XL pipeline is dead in the water and the Dakota Access Pipeline will definitely not be allowed to go on, so we lose another 500,000 bbls immediately.  This doesn't sound so bad but we do consume 19 million bbls a day.  Even during a pandemic we are consuming over 14 million bbls a day.  When Biden enters the White House and he does what he intends to do against fossil fuels and the U.S. is back to business in 2021, we'll already down to around 11 million bbls a day.  To make up the bbls, we'll need to import around 9 million bbls a day by 2022, given depletion and loss of pipeline capacity.  

Last week, Governor Whitmore of Michigan shutted the Enbridge Line 5 pipeline out of Canada.  It carries 540,000 bbls of oil.  It's been in existence for 60 years.  No problems, no leaks, but it carries crude so gotta go.  So, in the short term, Biden's impact will be significant and he doesn't really have to do anything.  However, there is a bright side.  OPEC will be back in our market to make up for the million lost in Canada via Dakota Access and Line 5 and the depletion on our end will have the Middle East back in business.  So, we'll go from the current 1 million or so imported to 3 or 4 million bbls.  So, oil prices will be subject to the whims of the Prince and Iraq with Russia on the side again.  So, ladies and gentlemen, when the U.S. is back in business, the price of crude will soon climb.  We won't like it when we fill up, and sorry Biden you can ban those gas guzzling SUVs but it ain't happenin in this lifetime, so by the time Biden finishes his first year, I predict, and I hate predictions, but sometimes you can see the writing on the wall, we'll be paying $10 bucks to fill up.  One way or the other Biden (or his handlers we should say), will grab us all by our wallets until moths fly out. In the meantime though, oil prices will be rising and the oil companies on the exchange will have some great earnings.  But, buckle up, since those in the market will be making a killing, but the cost for the energy itself might just make it a wash.

[JoMack + 549]

So, we're getting from the Office of the President-Elect Biden's first look at some of what he's going to offer us in the Green New Deal infrastructure plan.  The 420,000 federal vehicles will be replaced with electric vehicles, refit 4 million buildings, 500,000 charging stations at , 30 million homes will be weatherized.  That will begin immediately.  That's $1.7 Trillion.

Obama spent $4.5 billion for 1 million charging stations, there are 360,000.  Currently there are 150,000 gas stations and since the charging stations must be on the grid, how does that work with 500,000 stations for electric cars.  Are the 4 million building owners going to let the government proceed to refit their buildings and who will Biden choose to receive that weatherization he intends for the other homeowners to pay.

The Green New Deal is a movement since their solutions to climate change are a myth.  If the government forces the public to buy and replace cars with electric vehicles, how will they produce the electricity necessary to service them.  How many more power plants will be needed to generate the demand to fill up 279.6 million cars owned in the U.S.  Will emissions decline?  Will environmentalists let new plants be built?  It's a joke but not at all amusing.  

And, let's note that not one item on the Green New Deal Infrastructure Plan covers roads, bridges, or even bike paths.

 

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[JoMack + 549]

The oil and gas industry is preparing for a Biden Administration.  It might stave off the total ban on drilling on federal lands since Operators are turborcharging their applications for permits to drill.  1,301 permits for Permian and Eagle Ford are in for approval with BLM and the Texas RR Commission.  So, I'd assume the majority of the permits are for Permian since a large percentage is located on federal minerals.  3 rigs have been contracted and fracing fleets have climbed 50% since September.  

On federal acreage in October production from U.S. shale fell to 7.7 million bbls a day from  9.2 million a day in February.  So mitigating the decline curve is an uphill battle it seems unless Biden gets his wits about him, which is doubtful.

The company I work for has been told by the BLM that they better get their permits in before the end of the year.  In Carlsbad, NM, where the BLM offices are located for the Permian Basin, they told us they are hearing the "b" word from Interior that they are getting ready to start pulling back on permitting and approvals in 2021.

So, the Green New Deal has arrived, or at least a small part of it.  What's next is anyone's guess, but the U.S. so-called energy independence is already going down fast, and if Biden continues to stop permits on federal lands and Democratic state Governors follow, like Cuomo, and ban fracking?    Not to be negative, but restrictions on travel for COVID-19 is one thing, not having reasonable and reliable energy due to government mandates is another

 

[John Foote + 1,135]

Just an empty campaign promise, where is Trump's health care that replaced the ACA? Never proposed an alternative, and I don't expect anything significant out of Biden on this. What are the odds anything like this gets to the Senate floor.

On a related note ban fracking on a significant level and old King Coal would benefit, retaining some competitiveness in the electrical generation market. An example of the stupidity of just trying to do one thing, and while doing it, the end result the opposite of what you want.

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

I think we should ask Klaus Schwab, Bill Gates, the Rockefeller Family, the Rothchild family, the Davos Elite, and the mega-rich Big-Tech overlords as to exactly what roadmap they have.  Biden has been following it all along, so they should have the details.  The broad strokes of their plans are already visible online.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

I going to let you guys in on a secret that even @Wombat doesn't know: Bill Nye is actually the man pulling the strings and levers behind the scenes, just like the Wizard of Oz!  Contrary to popular belief, the Wicked Witch (AOC, who replaces Nancy Pelosi after her impending "melting") is secretly in partnership with the Wizard (Bill Nye).  

In case you wonder where Joe fits in: he is to play the part of Toto (good lapdog that he is).  Ha-ha.  One serious concern about the presumptive candidate:  Was anyone paying attention to how his name was spelled on the ballots?

 

 

Edited November 28, 2020 by Dan Warnick

[Prometheus1354 + 178]

On 11/21/2020 at 7:46 AM, JoMack said:

So, we're getting from the Office of the President-Elect Biden's first look at some of what he's going to offer us in the Green New Deal infrastructure plan.  The 420,000 federal vehicles will be replaced with electric vehicles, refit 4 million buildings, 500,000 charging stations at , 30 million homes will be weatherized.  That will begin immediately.  That's $1.7 Trillion.

Obama spent $4.5 billion for 1 million charging stations, there are 360,000.  Currently there are 150,000 gas stations and since the charging stations must be on the grid, how does that work with 500,000 stations for electric cars.  Are the 4 million building owners going to let the government proceed to refit their buildings and who will Biden choose to receive that weatherization he intends for the other homeowners to pay.

The Green New Deal is a movement since their solutions to climate change are a myth.  If the government forces the public to buy and replace cars with electric vehicles, how will they produce the electricity necessary to service them.  How many more power plants will be needed to generate the demand to fill up 279.6 million cars owned in the U.S.  Will emissions decline?  Will environmentalists let new plants be built?  It's a joke but not at all amusing.  

And, let's note that not one item on the Green New Deal Infrastructure Plan covers roads, bridges, or even bike paths.

 

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Here in Commiefornia;  Our Sh!thead Gump and Legislature have decreed that by the year 2045 it will be ILLEGAL for car dealerships to sell new ICE powered autos. Period. Full Stop.  On top of that, the state is mandated to be 100% renewables powered by the same time period.  Never mind our existing electrical power grid is as fragile as a new born fawns legs just hrs after its birth.  The grid will be minus all the Nat Gas plants which as of 2018 figures from the state is a 45.5% hole that must be filled.  

They establish these edicts and say the majority of existing sources of power are soon to be Verboten.  Not to mention, these idiots in the Bill Mill will be long gone from the scene and thus will skate any responsibility when the lights go out.