Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN February 6, 2021 (edited) Fossil Fuels Aren’t Going Anywhere By Irina Slav - Feb 05, 2021, 6:00 PM CST Join Our Community https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Fossil-Fuels-Arent-Going-Anywhere.html “There is no scenario where hydrocarbons disappear,” the chief executive of Baker Hughes, Lorenzo Simonelli, said during his keynote speech at this year’s annual meeting in the company. Like other executives from the industry, Simonelli acknowledged and welcomed the energy transition, but he noted that a 100-percent renewable energy scenario was simply not possible. There is plenty of evidence this is indeed the case, despite the hopes and ambitions of many environmental advocates. These hopes and ambitions imagine a world where human activity is powered from electricity only, and this electricity in turn is being generated using only renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and hydropower. Such a world, however, is unrealistic. Take Germany, for example. The country, which is among the EU members with the most renewable energy capacity, has not produced a single Watt of solar energy since the start of this year. The reason: it’s winter. It is producing solid amounts of wind power, that’s for sure, but it is also generating power from the most despised fossil fuel of all: coal. At the time of writing its carbon intensity was 264 grams of CO2 equivalent per kWh. That was comparable to the carbon intensity of another poster girl for renewables in Europe, Denmark, which is currently getting most of its energy from wind power. So, it seems building renewable capacity in itself is not a silver bullet solution to the emissions problem. In fact, if you build it too quickly without adding substantial storage capacity, it could backfire. This was most recently evidenced by a narrow miss of a major blackout in Europe prompted by a minor problem at a Croatian substation that rippled through the continent, highlighting the importance of maintaining the grid at a constant frequency—something renewables cannot do because of their intermittent generation. Related: Canada Oil And Gas Deals Surge 468%Even Denmark has thermal power plants to secure the baseload any grid needs to function properly and eliminate or at least reduce the risk of blackouts. But back to Simonelli’s prediction about the guaranteed future of oil and gas. This future won’t be like the past. The world is firmly on course to change the way it generates and uses energy. Both Simonelli and the other keynote speaker at Baker Hughes’ AM2021, IHS Markit’s Daniel Yergin, recognized that. It is simply that this change will not be limited to a build-up of solar- and wind-generating capacity. Energy efficiency, for one, will be a big part of the transition. Efficiency has been pushed out of the spotlight recently, replaced by things like green hydrogen and the constant emission-reduction narrative, but it has not gone away. According to Baker Huges’ Simonelli, efficiency alone could help meet as much as 27 percent of the Paris Agreement climate change targets. On a global scale, this is a massive amount of emissions cut, at a rate of half a gigaton annually. In addition to efficiency, there are all the commitments Big Oil is making under pressure from investors, regulators, and activists. Every supermajor now has a renewable energy transition plan, some more ambitious than others. All the plans, however, involve pouring billions of dollars into what is essentially a move away from these companies’ core business of extracting oil and gas from the ground, at a carbon and methane emission cost, of course. This shift to renewables might raise some doubts about whether oil and gas will really remain indispensable. However, the facts suggest that they probably will. There are still millions of people around the world without access to any electricity, and going renewable straight out of the gate for many of these people is simply not an option, for a number of reasons including cost—yes, even though solar panel costs are dropping like WTI in April 2020—and logistics problems. Going green only appears cheaper than sticking with fossil fuels. But it isn’t. As IHS Markit’s Yergin pointed out in his speech, emerging economies will continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels, despite other regions’ efforts to reduce their own reliance on them. Even if solar panels become free at some point, it is not just panels that go into the making of a solar farm: it also needs components such as inverters and a link to the grid, plus storage, for best results. This alone is enough to guarantee the long-term future of oil and especially gas as an indispensable part of the world’s energy mix. So, if oil and gas are not going anywhere, can we at least make them a bit cleaner? We certainly can, according to both Simonelli and Yergin, as well as to many other industry experts. Carbon capture is the second element of oil and gas’ long game, besides efficiency. True, carbon capture technology is still quite costly but, as in solar and wind, costs are on their way down. From a lot of talk and little action, carbon capture is on its way to becoming a feature of the energy transition. Why? Because “the numbers don’t work without it,” as Daniel Yergen said. By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com https://irinaslav.wordpress.com/ https://twitter.com/IrinaSlav1 Edited February 6, 2021 by Tom Nolan Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ronwagn + 6,290 February 6, 2021 On 1/9/2021 at 4:09 PM, Tom Nolan said: The following article might have some debatable aspects... Russia Turns Attention To US After Winning Oil War With Saudi Arabia Saturday, Jan 09, 2021 - 13:05 https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-turns-attention-us-after-winning-oil-war-saudi-arabia Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, 'n Guns blog, If you missed the big story of this week I wouldn’t blame you. It’s a big story, bigger than riots in D.C. Russia became the de facto controller of the marginal barrel of oil. This is a bigger story than what happened on Capitol Hill on Wednesday because that was a continuation of a story whose end was already written. Joe Biden will be President. The Era of Trump is over. Now that has far-reaching effects on a number of markets, including oil. But, again, we’ve known Biden was taking office, if we’re being honest with ourselves, since election night when the civil war in the U.S. officially began. So, we’ve known that Trump’s push to become the controller of oil markets was coming to an end. We’ve also known since the Coronapocalypse that U.S. oil production had peaked and could only go down from there. Yes Russia’s production dropped by a similar amount, around 2 million barrels per day, averaging 10.27 millions of barrels per day in 2020. But the difference here is not in how much is produced but in what it costs to produce those barrels. And not just any barrel, but the marginal barrel… the last barrel. Because he who has the lowest marginal cost of production ultimately can and will be the price setter for any commodity. Russia has, by far, the lowest cost of production of the major producers when adjusted for currency effects. The 2020 EIA report on breakeven oil prices — the price needed to balance the country’s current account — for major producers sheds some light on the subject, but everything is normalized to dollars in terms of cost. Under that analysis Russia comes in at around $42 per barrel and Saudi Arabia at around $64 per barrel. https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/2021-01-09_8-01-06.jpg?itok=zMZzKmaz But that doesn’t reflect the economic reality of each producer unless they are dependent on dollars to source their expenses. Russia is most definitely not in that position. The oil industry there is homegrown. Expenses are paid in rubles, parts are manufactured locally, and this is where the big advantage lies. I’ve been banging the drum for three years now that Russia’s currency is its ultimate weapon in the oil price wars. Because Russia with its homegrown oil industry is far less exposed to a dollar drop in the price of oil to maintain internal production costs. The ruble rises when oil prices fall and the income is buffered by this while expenses stay relatively constant. On the other hand the Saudi riyal is still pegged to the U.S. dollar and is trapped by it. The same goes for U.S. domestic producers, who have had it even worse now that the debt-fueled mania of the Trump years is over. Access to cheap capital is over. Rates will rise in the U.S. over the next two years. There was just a major technical breakout on the 10 year Treasury note. These things combined, along with Russia’s flexible taxing regime on oil profits, give them a sincere advantage over their rivals. So, what happened this week that was so important? The Saudis unilaterally offered to cut production by 1 million barrels per day. While, at the same time, OPEC+ accepted that both Russia and Kazakhstan would increase their production at their January meeting. It doesn’t matter that it was a paltry 75,000 barrels per day. What matters is the message. Saudi Arabia is no longer the price setter through massive market share in oil. Period. They surrendered to the Russians. Oil markets rallied on the news and Brent Crude is setting up today to close the week on a technical breakout above $50 per barrel. With the Obama restoration completed in the U.S. it also means that the U.S. won’t be running interference for the Saudis through idiotic foreign policy boondoggles like endless sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Nor will U.S. domestic policy be supportive of the oil and gas industry under an Obama restoration. The opposite will occur. Texas will become a pariah state targeted for retribution for backing Trump and forcing the Supreme Court to openly abdicate its responsibilities under the Constitution. The era of Iran and Venezuela being complete pariahs is over. Iran’s oil is already returning to the market as China turns to them as a major supplier. The $400 billion investment deal they signed with Iran implies a massive return on investment through oil sales. That leaves the Saudis in no position to do anything other than try to desperately keep the price of oil from returning to the $30’s. Now, once the money printing and conversion of the U.S. to full-blown MMT insanity is complete under the Democrats, nominal oil prices will likely soar in dollar terms. But that will not be based on a demand-pull scenario but rather a cost-push one of the type we’re already seeing in industrial metals, grains and timber as supply shocks continue to buffet the global economy and the so-called first world is locked in their homes. Lastly, this capitulation by the Saudis is acknowledgment that 2021 oil demand will not recover from the worst of the 2020 version of the Coronapocalypse. All of these factors together put Russia in the driver’s seat o be the price-maker in the oil space and everyone else a price-taker. It’s a subtle transfer of power based on its ability to operate a reasonably independent economy and political system now mostly decoupled from not only the U.S. dollar but also the U.S. dominated global institutions like the IMF, SWIFT and the World Bank. Because of this expect an Obama 3rd term to be even more belligerent towards Russia than we saw under Trump, if that is at all possible. The Russians beat the Saudis this week. Now their attention will turn to the U.S. * * * Setting a lower price on oil or gas is a two edged sword for countries, like Russia, who are overly dependent on oil revenue. Russia is in the same position as the other OPEC countries. Their economies are failing while renewable energy is slowly gaining market share. They all need to reimagine their economies and get going now, or they will suffer even more than they already are. The oil war was over once the USA became energy independent. China, on the other hand, and the other large economies can obtain energy more cheaply than ever, thus gaining a big advantage. The Third World countries benefit from low priced energy also. It will help them develop more quickly and many have their own fossil fuels to develop, especially natural gas. Natural gas and alcohol can also be made from cellulose. They will also benefit from affordabl solar equipment and wind turbines at a lower cost. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN February 6, 2021 22 minutes ago, ronwagn said: alcohol can also be made from cellulose I think we will see that 2021 is a good year for Oil and Natural Gas as a whole. Alcohol. I have long been a proponent of alcohol as a fuel source. It is completely clean of pollutants and has many agricultural applications. I got this book back around 2006. The following is a very old lecture. Technology has since progressed tremendously. However, this video is QUEUED to the 1:15 minute mark. David Blume explains what big Agriculture is doing with alcohol and food. I have seen this on a small scale in my area. https://youtu.be/ogcv9xS8Pkw?t=4511 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN February 6, 2021 Why Big Oil Isn’t Worried About Biden’s Executive Orders By Robert Rapier - Feb 06, 2021, 5:00 PM CST https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Big-Oil-Isnt-Worried-About-Bidens-Executive-Orders.html Join Our Community In late 2019, as various candidates jockeyed to win the Democratic nomination for president, Elizabeth Warren made the statement that she would “ban fracking everywhere.” It was just the kind of hollow campaign promise that I loathe, and I explained why that was an unrealistic promise. Then Joe Biden came along and pandered to the same crowd Warren was trying to impress. He promised “no new fracking”, but once again I explained why that promise wouldn’t be fulfilled. Now that President Biden has issued a pair of executive orders that are viewed as hostile toward the oil and gas industry, many people have asked me whether Biden has in fact banned fracking. On his second day in office, President Biden signed Executive Order on Protecting Public Health and the Environment and Restoring Science to Tackle the Climate Crisis. The biggest takeaway from the Executive Order was the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline permit. The project had been rejected by President Obama in late 2015, fast-tracked by President Trump in 2017, and now once more rejected by President Biden in 2021. But there is no mention of fracking in this executive order. Last week the administration also issued Secretarial Order No. 3395, which implemented a 60-day suspension of new oil and gas leasing and drilling permits for federal land and water. This week President Biden followed that action up with Executive Order on Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad. The biggest takeaway from this order was an indefinite “pause on new oil and natural gas leases on public lands” until a comprehensive review on the climate change impacts can be completed. Related: U.S. Rig Count Jumps Amid Rising Oil Prices The sound bite for many from this executive order was that President Biden had banned fracking as a consequence of this action. But as with the previous order, fracking isn’t mentioned in this executive order. Further, if an operator has an existing lease and permit but haven’t drilled yet, they can still drill the well and frack it. The order does potentially impact some future fracking operations, but Biden did reiterate before he signed it “Let me be clear, and I know this always comes up, we’re not going to ban fracking.” But what Biden can’t do by executive order is an overall ban on fracking, because most fracking takes place on private land. A complete ban would have to be passed by Congress, and that looks like a longshot. For a more in-depth interpretation of Biden’s recent executive orders, I spoke with Stacey Morris, who is Director of Research for midstream index and data provider Alerian. She explained that the orders were certainly not as bad as they seemed: “These executive orders were pretty well-telegraphed. They were even a little bit softened from what was said during the campaign. The language on the Biden website discussed banning permitting on federal land. The executive order is a pause on new leases. They aren’t looking at a full out fracking ban.” When I asked how companies might be affected, she explained “Companies have been stockpiling permits in anticipation of a move like this. Right now there are 7,700 unused permits. Devon Energy, for example, has over four years of permit backlog and drilling inventory. They expect to be able to execute on their federal lands program based on comments made in November.” She added that some states that could be most impacted longer-term are New Mexico, Wyoming, North Dakota, and Colorado. In the long run, she said that a ban on drilling on federal land could lead to more imports. In that case, we could end up using oil that is produced with more associated carbon emissions than if it had been produced in the U.S. I remarked that President Biden seemed to be going further left than President Obama on these issues, and she said that is probably because climate change is widely viewed as a more pressing problem now. Hence, Biden feels compelled to pursue more aggressive actions. She said that the bottom line is the bark was worse than the bite: “The headline looks scary, but we don’t see any immediate impact from these executive orders.” For those who are worried about your gasoline prices going up, this is definitely not the reason. By Robert Rapier Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN February 9, 2021 Russian, Saudi Oil Giants To Benefit From Biden’s Anti-Oil Agenda By Tsvetana Paraskova - Feb 09, 2021, 9:00 AM CST https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Russian-Saudi-Oil-Giants-To-Benefit-From-Bidens-Anti-Oil-Agenda.html The growing number of Western countries aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050 and the U.S. Administration’s drive to limit oil and gas extraction on federal land and waters are likely to benefit the biggest oil firms in Russia and Saudi oil giant Aramco, analysts and portfolio managers told Bloomberg. While major developed economies are vowing to ‘build back greener,’ the world will still run on oil, and the beneficiaries, at least in the short term, will be the oil firms in countries that haven’t pledged net-zero targets and whose major oil companies are doubling down on oil production. Ekaterina Iliouchenko, a money manager with Frankfurt-based Union Investment Privatfonds, told Bloomberg that while Big Oil, especially in Europe, vows to boost investment in renewables and streamline oil and gas operations, the world will still need to pump oil and “That’ll be the Russians and Saudi Aramco.” Some investors have increased their exposure to Russian oil stocks, including in the biggest companies Rosneft and Lukoil, as they expect those companies to take advantage of the ‘greening’ elsewhere and double down on oil projects. The recent major shift in U.S. oil policies with the new Administration could also play in the hands of Russian and Saudi oil, as it would eventually limit drilling on federal lands and waters once the current backlog of permits expires. The U.S. oil industry, via the American Petroleum Institute (API), argues that the suspension of new drilling on federal lands and waters would undermine environmental progress as it would increase U.S. dependence on foreign oil imports from countries with lower environmental standards and replace oil produced with fewer emissions in the U.S. with higher-emission crude pumped elsewhere. “With a stroke of a pen, the administration is shifting America’s bright energy future into reverse and setting us on a path toward greater reliance on foreign energy produced with lower environmental standards,” API President and CEO Mike Sommers said in a statement last month. By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com Tom Nolan here: In case you did not get the memo on "The Great Reset" ("Build Back Better") Agenda about NET-ZERO EMISSIONS mentioned above in Tsvetana's article, I am including this article from Irina Slav.... Absolute-Zero Is The New Net-Zero For Emissions By Irina Slav - Feb 07, 2021, 5:00 PM CST https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Absolute-Zero-Is-The-New-Net-Zero-For-Emissions.html Join Our Community The net-zero emissions goal of many governments has more or less become part of everyday life. We’ve all heard about these plans, and we may remember a few details. Still, life goes on. Now, a report from a UK research group is taking things a lot further: it has called for the country to aim for not net, but absolute zero in emissions by 2050. UK FIRES, a research program involving scientists from several reputable universities and businesses from resource-intensive sectors, says that net-zero is not enough. What’s more, waiting for breakthrough technologies to enable this net-zero scenario is not good enough. According to a new report, today’s technology is sufficient for achieving absolute zero by 2050. At a cost, of course. The plan that the authors of the report outline starts with moving to a 100-percent reliance on electricity as a source of energy. That’s hardly surprising —most net-zero plans involve a version of this heightened reliance. Naturally, critics would be quick to point out that a complete reliance on one form of energy may not be particularly smart, for which there is more than enough evidence from the fossil fuel era. Still, one of the tenets of the absolute-zero plan is an economy 100 percent powered by electricity generated by renewable sources. The authors recognize this shift to 100 percent renewable electricity will require a significant boost in generation capacity and storage. Both of these are potentially challenging endeavors for a number of reasons. Challenges include—but are not limited to—cost and land availability. But unlike other plans for emission reduction, the FIRES plan does not factor in growing energy demand. On the contrary, the report prescribes that the UK must reduce its energy consumption—and reduce it substantially—in order for the absolute zero plan to work. “We need to switch to using electricity as our only form of energy and if we continue today’s impressive rates of growth in non-emitting generation, we’ll only have to cut our use of energy to 60% of today’s levels,” the authors wrote. “We can achieve this with incremental changes to the way we use energy: we can drive smaller cars and take the train when possible, use efficient electric heat-pumps to keep warm and buy buildings, vehicles and equipment that are better designed and last much longer.” Making people buy certain products and not others would be difficult, but the UK government has already signaled it was ready to remove the option of choice to hit its climate targets: Downing Street said last year it would ban sales of gasoline and diesel cars from 2030. This has already caused disgruntlement among some Britons, but they still have ten years to embrace the change. They will also have time to get used to the idea of beef and lamb disappearing from supermarkets because, according to the authors of the report, eating ruminants contributes unacceptably high levels of emissions to the global total. But that’s just the beginning. The FIRES report identifies air and maritime transport as major contributors to our species’ carbon footprint. Therefore, these must be phased out completely, the authors say, by 2050. What will replace them? Well, electric trains would be one replacement for air travel across Europe. They would not, however, be able to replace container ships carrying goods from and to Asia, for example. The authors admit there is no replacement for international shipping, and there won’t be for quite a while yet. At the same time, the UK imports half the food it consumes. International shipping is just one sticking point in the FIRES plan. Another is cement. Cement production is a highly polluting industry, but we can’t build safely without cement. The authors of the report suggest alternative construction technologies but note that completely phasing out cement will be a challenge. It will not be the only one in view of the report’s recommendations. One of these concerns is making equipment, clothing, and durable goods even more durable to reduce energy consumption associated with the making of new ones. That might not sit well with the companies producing these goods and equipment, which make money from making their products last shorter rather than longer. It may not be the fairest of all business models, but it has been employed for decades. All in all, the report’s main message to both businesses and individuals is: consume less energy. It is an admirable message, by all means. However, the road that the authors suggest to this reduced consumption is unstable. It involves the demise of industries that employ tens of millions of people who will not all be able to retrain for solar panel or wind turbine installation. It also involves some major changes to people’s behaviors. While far from impossible, these changes are contingent on the goodwill of enough people—or on several successive governments’ willingness to prescribe behaviors through bans. That might be even less smart than a 100-percent reliance on electricity for our energy needs. By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com Tom Nolan says "These Authoritarian "Research Group" folks are nuts! Insane! Batshit crazy!" Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN February 9, 2021 Could Oil Prices Break $100 Next Year? By Tsvetana Paraskova - Feb 09, 2021, 10:00 AM CST https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Could-Oil-Prices-Break-100-Next-Year.html Oil prices could go as high as $100 a barrel next year on the back of “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg in an interview. “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” the analyst said on the Bloomberg Surveillance program. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” Sen noted. On Monday, Brent Crude prices hit $60 a barrel, rising above that threshold for the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic early last year. In terms of prompt fundamentals, Energy Aspects’ Sen thinks, like some other analysts, that the market has gotten ahead of itself, “because right now demand is still relatively weak.” However, the second half of the year does look much, much healthier in terms of demand, the analyst added. Like other analysts and Torbjörn Törnqvist, chief executive at one of the world’s largest independent oil traders, Gunvor, Sen also sees headwinds to price gains at oil above $60, as U.S. production is set to begin rising. According to Energy Aspects, U.S. oil output will not go back to pre-COVID levels any time soon, if ever, because producers are more focused on shareholder returns right now. Last week, Törnqvist told Bloomberg that oil prices were unlikely to soar much above the $60 per barrel mark, considering that this price level would incentivize a lot of oil supply, including from the United States. “We are at price levels which will look increasingly attractive to producers, so we would expect to see some producer flows coming into the market, which should provide some resistance to prices,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao said on Tuesday. “Looking at the WTI forward curve, while the curve is in backwardation, prices all the way through to the end of 2022 are above US$50/bbl,” they said. By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN February 9, 2021 Iraq Wants Oil At $80 By Irina Slav - Feb 08, 2021, 11:00 AM CST https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Iraq-Wants-Oil-At-80.html Iraq needs crude oil to trade at $80 a barrel to be able to plug its budget holes, according to oil minister Ihsan Abdul Jabbar Ismail. In an interview with Shafaq news agency, the top official said, "Iraq will export in 2021 about one billion and 100 million barrels of crude oil according to market data. The budget needs 140 trillion dinars ($96 billion). The price of $ 80 a barrel is the right price to make Iraq can pay the budget dues." However, there is no chance of oil rising that high this year, Abdul Jabbar Ismail also said. Last December, the minister said Baghdad had budgeted for an average oil price of $42 a barrel for 2021, compared with $56 for 2019. The official told Shafaq news agency that he expected Brent to hit $60 a barrel this quarter, however, rising to $62-63 by the third quarter if Covid-19 vaccines become widely available. Brent is currently trading close to $60 on signs of tightening supply. Iraq is OPEC's second-largest producer and one of the countries most dependent on oil revenues to prop up its war-battered economy: as much as 90 percent of government spending comes from oil revenues. Because of this dependency, Iraq has been finding it hard to stay within its OPEC+ production quota, which led to clashes with the de facto leader of OPEC, Saudi Arabia. Following pressure from the bigger producer, Iraq pledged to deepen its production cuts and, according to the latest data, has been having some success. In a bid to secure more oil revenues, the country also tried a new kind of contract, essentially borrowing money, to be repaid in crude oil. A Chinese company, Zhenhua Oil Co, signed up for the deal that will bring in some $2 billion annually for Baghdad, according to Bloomberg. By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com RELATED The once Anti-War party is beefing up things by further invading another country... Biden Appears To Be Expanding The US Occupation Of Syria Monday, Feb 08, 2021 - 18:20 https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/biden-appears-be-expanding-us-occupation-syria Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com, According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, some 50 vehicles in a US military convoy crossed into Syria this weekend and headed for bases in the nation’s northeast Hasakeh Province. Details aren’t clear on why the convoy arrived, beyond delivering equipment. The Observatory noted this is the ninth such convoy to enter Syria in 2021, meaning nearly two convoys per week are showing up. While there has been no official announcement on a policy change, this speaks to the Biden Administration’s intentions in Syria, or at least intentions to not leave Syria. The US has very limited troop presence left in Syria, and President Trump made much of the remnant just being there to loot oil. With reports of ISIS seeking a resurgence there, it seems the US may have found itself another war, or at least a continuation of the existing war.A return to Obama-era priorities in Syria could set the stage for a bigger fight, as they were very keen to impose regime change in Syria before, and may be following the Libya model that saw Moammar Gadhafi deposed, killed, and Libya turned into the wreck it remains to this day. Biden is not merely perpetuating but expanding the US's illegal occupation of Syria. Citing SOHR, one regional report notes: According to the Britain-based monitoring group, "this is the ninth Coalition convoy to enter Syria since the beginning of 2021." Nothing Biden has said would suggest otherwise, with the Kurdish YPG expecting a new influx of US support. Some of this will be done under the guise of fighting terrorism, some on claimed US interests in the region. No longer content to rob a single oilfield, the US may once again have designs on much more. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ RELATED - FAKE NEWS PROPAGANDA BY THE U.S. MEDIA SURROUNDING SYRIA.... Whistleblowers and documents continue to destroy the narrative surrounding the alleged chemical weapons attack in Douma, Syria, last year, it is becoming increasingly apparent that this false flag event has been exposed. DOCUMENTS HERE https://www.corbettreport.com/episode-368-the-douma-hoax-anatomy-of-a-false-flag/ Brief 5 minute video summary about some of the U.S. propaganda on Syria (QUEUED at 9 minute mark) ... https://youtu.be/5TwiB3oNng4?t=539 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
El Nikko + 2,145 nb February 9, 2021 (edited) 4 hours ago, Tom Nolan said: Could Oil Prices Break $100 Next Year? By Tsvetana Paraskova - Feb 09, 2021, 10:00 AM CST https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Could-Oil-Prices-Break-100-Next-Year.html The Fed's insane money printing could turn out to be very good for us Edited February 9, 2021 by El Nikko 1 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN February 10, 2021 5 hours ago, El Nikko said: The Fed's insane money printing could turn out to be very good for us The Fed's insane money printing could turn out to be very good for us That and also the move towards "The Great Reset". They will need and lot of oil and gas to accomplish their plans for global domination of the populace... ....and in their demonization of "carbon", they will accidently-on-purpose make oil and gas more valuable. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN February 10, 2021 WTI Dips After Biggest Gasoline Build Since April https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/wti-dips-after-biggest-gasoline-build-april Oil prices rose for the seventh straight day today (longest streak in two years), with a weak dollar helping bail out an early drop in WTI to its highest since January 2020. “The markets are becoming very forward-looking and there’s optimism that we’re going to see a strong rebound in demand,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp. Saudi Arabia’s decision to unilaterally cut production in February and March “was a game-changer, which has removed oversupply concerns in the short term.” API Crude -3.5mm (-994k exp) Cushing -378k Gasoline +4.81mm - biggest bvuild since April 2020 Distillates -487k Analysts expected a modest draw last week to make the 3rd weekly drop in crude stocks in a row and API confirmed with a bigger than expected 3.5mm draw. However, gasoline stocks saw the biggest build since April 2020, suggesting demand may not be as robust as some hoped... Source: Bloomberg WTI traded around $58.40 ahead of the API print, popped higher initially (crude draw) but faded as the gasoline build data became obvious... “There is, to some extent, a limit on the upside to prices,” said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. “We still have a lot of OPEC supply to come onto the market, and the faster prices go higher, it implies OPEC is going to bring back supply sooner.” Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tomasz + 1,608 February 10, 2021 (edited) Well we have a supply crunch alert: Total warns today of 10 million bpd oil supply shortfall by 2025 Given that the total inventories in OECD countries are around 3 billion barrels, theoretically, this could mean that the world would run out of oil. Of course, non-OECD countries also have stocks, especially China, but 10 million barrels a day is quite a bold thesis worthy of Goldman Sachs or the shocking forecasts of Saxo Bank. Edited February 10, 2021 by Tomasz 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Robert Ziegler + 121 RZ February 10, 2021 4 hours ago, Tomasz said: Well we have a supply crunch alert: Total warns today of 10 million bpd oil supply shortfall by 2025 Given that the total inventories in OECD countries are around 3 billion barrels, theoretically, this could mean that the world would run out of oil. Of course, non-OECD countries also have stocks, especially China, but 10 million barrels a day is quite a bold thesis worthy of Goldman Sachs or the shocking forecasts of Saxo Bank. We need 400-600 billion investment in upstream OIL urgently: That means NOW. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Kramer + 696 R February 10, 2021 Oil prices slip (to one year high) on fuel inventory build 😄. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
El Nikko + 2,145 nb February 10, 2021 8 hours ago, Robert Ziegler said: We need 400-600 billion investment in upstream OIL urgently: That means NOW. They'd better hurry up because an awful lot of oil field workers are calling it a day and either retiring or moving sectors, the frequent busts have got very tiring over the last twelve years. While wages can be good they aren't so great when you average them out over the downturns. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tomasz + 1,608 February 10, 2021 Recent news Supply - EIA numbers U.S. oil production fell -0.11 mmb/d from 11.11 to 11.00 mmb/d in January. EIA expects output to average 11.2 mmb/d in 2021 and 11.5 mmb/d in 2022. World liquids production rose +0.13 mmb/d from 93.82 to 93.95 mmb/d in January. EIA forecasts +5.5 mmb/d (+6%) increase to 99.3 mmb/d by November 2021. Brent spot price expected to average $53.23 in 2021. Demand OIL DEMAND: Wall Street flagging the strength of oil consumption. "Demand looks stronger than expected," says Citi. JPMorgan adds: "Demand is also coming stronger compared to expectations. Not only does December look stronger [...] but January demand also looks much sturdier" Good numbers for China, India or Japan (the world's 2, 3, and 4 largest consumers). Overall oil demand in China is up y-on-y. And in the US, year-to-date demand (to Feb 5) is down by -3.9% compared to the same period of 2020. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN February 11, 2021 The Most Fragile Oil Price Rally In History By Irina Slav - Feb 10, 2021, 6:00 PM CST https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Most-Fragile-Oil-Price-Rally-In-History.html Brent crude could hit $70 or even $80 a barrel by the end of this year, one hedge fund manager says. It could top $100 next year, an energy analyst forecasts. Oil is on a tear, and suddenly, everyone is bullish. But this is probably the most fragile oil price recovery in history. Something as tiny as a virus could kill it. Herd immunity is the big factor for hedge funds, according to a recent Reuters report. According to them and several banks, the United States—the world’s biggest oil consumer—will reach herd immunity by the middle of the year, which will coincide with summer driving season to the benefit of oil producers. “By the summer, the vaccine should be widely provided and just in time for summer travel and I think things are going to go gangbusters,” one hedge fund manager, David D. Tawil of Maglan Capital, told Reuters. Government stimulus will also help. In fact, it could even push prices to $100 and over, according to Energy Aspects’ Amrita Sen. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” Sen told Bloomberg this week. Central banks and governments have been more than generous with stimulus to weather the effects of the crisis caused by the pandemic, and while some are skeptical about the long-term benefits of some measures, the overall sentiment towards them is positive. There are some flies in the stimulus ointment, however. In Europe, some analysts are warning that government support for businesses is creating so-called zombie companies that will collapse the moment the stimulus end, which it will eventually have to do. In the United States, some analysts have questioned the need for President’s Biden $1.9-trillion stimulus program saying the economy is already picking up, however slowly, and a stimulus package as huge as this one could lead to excessive inflation, which could have unexpected consequences. And then there are the oil producers, many of which have been struggling to stay afloat since the pandemic hit the global scene. With rising oil prices, the struggle will end, but it will also tempt many to start producing more, especially as demand recovers thanks to mass vaccinations. This is the dominant expectation: that by the summer, there will be enough people vaccinated for life to begin to return to normal, including in oil demand. Analysts and financiers note that oil companies are much warier about production growth this time and will hold off returning to growth mode for longer. This may or may not be the case, but what most analysts and financiers seem to be brushing off is the possibility of a resurgence in Covid-19 infections. It is not a thought many would readily entertain, not after the months of lockdowns and travel restrictions that decimated air travel and oil demand alike. Yet medical experts in senior positions such as the director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control are warning that the new variants of the coronavirus that caused the pandemic could indeed lead to new spikes in infections. These variants appear to be spreading faster than the original virus, medics have said, but the bigger problem is that the vaccines we have available may not be effective against them. “They’re more virulent, can cause more death, and some of them may even escape the immune response, whether it’s natural or from the vaccine,” said Dr. Celine Gounder, member of the Biden-Harris Transition Covid Advisory Board last week. This is all it would take for bullish oil price forecasts to crash and burn: another resurgence in cases and the news that available vaccines don’t work against the new virus variants. It may well be this risk that is making producers so unusually wary about their return to production growth. This wariness, coupled with OPEC+’s continued cuts, would likely limit oil’s downside potential for a while, even if new Covid-19 cases do start to rise again in any of the biggest oil markets. Interestingly enough, the hedge funds Reuters interviewed don’t seem to factor in the shift to renewable energy that is expected to depress oil demand permanently. On the contrary, despite many a government’s green transition plans, financiers expect a bright future for oil, not just this year and next. “Oil companies, for the first time in a long time, are likely to make a big comeback,” Jean-Louis Le Mee, chief of hedge fund Westback Capital Management told Reuters. “We have all the ingredients for an extraordinary bull market in oil for the next few years.” It is an interesting situation: governments and environmental groups are pushing for less oil and more renewables as soon as possible, touting the falling costs of solar and wind, and the breakthroughs in storage. Those who trade oil, on the other hand, expect a recovery in demand strong enough to lift prices to where they were before the pandemic and before the announcement of all these energy transition plans. It would be fascinating to watch who ends up correct. By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
El Nikko + 2,145 nb February 11, 2021 I don't want to be overly optimistic but we've had ridiculous rallies in damn near everything and oil has been (for obvious reasons) at the back and had no love at all. I think we will see oil surge in a year, all compounded by the low CAPEX for years, over supply, Covid and everything else. I think we will see stocks peak and then money will pour out looking for more 'juice' to squeeze and oil (if managed properly) will be the last one before we've hit a plateau. After than I think we'll see a stock crash but commodities will be king as inflation surges. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN February 11, 2021 Tom Nolan sure likes TEXAS! This Texas Oil Company Just Became The Latest Meme Stock By Irina Slav - Feb 10, 2021, 12:30 PM CST A small crude oil company based in Texas is seeing a surge in out-of-the-money call options in what could be a sign of another burst of retail trader action, Bloomberg reports, citing Reddit discussion threads mentioning the company. Ring Energy, which pumped a mere 9,500 barrels of oil daily as of the third quarter of 2020, may become the second oil “meme stock”, after it saw its share price double over the last two weeks. Last week, media reported the case of New Concept Energy, another Texan company even smaller than Ring Energy, which only produces some 70 barrels of oil equivalent daily, saw its stock price soar by as much as 1,000 percent to $128 apiece. At the time, a Redditor from the WallSteetBets group that caused the now notorious surge in the price of GameStop shares said the group had nothing to do with the price rise of New Concept Energy, blaming it on “market manipulation.” The so-called meme stocks—the stocks of small and normally insignificant companies—have become the focus of attention for many retail traders recently as a way of sticking it to Wall Street hedge funds that have large short positions on many of these companies, which tend to be having a hard time for one reason or another. The trading frenzy the market witnessed in the last couple of weeks indeed led to substantial losses for some hedge funds. Still, observers were quick to warn that retail traders stand to lose money too when the artificially pumped up rally of the stocks in question ended. Based on the latest reports, it seems, however, that losses or not, retail traders have got a taste of moving the market in one direction or another and are not going to completely stop challenging the big players. By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com New Concept Energy, Inc. (GBR) 8.70 +1.03 (+13.43%) At close: 4:00PM EST https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GBR?p=GBR Ring Energy, Inc. (REI) 52 Week Range $ 0.4300 - $2.4000 https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/REI/?p=REI Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN February 11, 2021 (edited) Irina lives in far, far east Texas, across the lake and past the mountains. https://oilprice.com/contributors/Irina-Slav Latest articles from Irina The Most Fragile Oil Price Rally In History Published 10 February 2021 | viewed 1,086 times Brent crude could hit $70 or even $80 a barrel by the end of this year, one hedge fund manager says. It could top $100… This Texas Oil Company Just Became The Latest Meme Stock Published 10 February 2021 | viewed 4,446 times A small crude oil company based in Texas is seeing a surge in out-of-the-money call options in what could be a sign of another burst… Gasoline Demand Faces Weakness Despite Vaccine Rollout Published 10 February 2021 | viewed 1,042 times In the latest sign yet that the global vaccination effort was falling way short of expectations, institutional traders are shunning gasoline futures in favor of… Major Crude Draw Sends Oil Prices Higher Published 10 February 2021 | viewed 12,714 times Crude oil prices rose today after the Energy Information Administration reported a crude oil inventory draw of 6.6 million barrels for the week to February… India Will Drive Energy Demand For The Next 20 Years Published 09 February 2021 | viewed 3,053 times India will be the biggest driver of global energy demand over the next 20 years as its population continues to increase fast and affluence spreads,… National Oil Companies On Collision Course With Climate Targets Published 09 February 2021 | viewed 8,949 times State-owned oil companies are on course to invest $400 billion in oil and gas projects that could only break even if the world exceeds the… Is Clean Gas Worth The Premium? Published 08 February 2021 | viewed 5,168 times When a company called Jonah Energy last year reported that it had become the first to be awarded a low-methane standard by the IES, it… Iraq Wants Oil At $80 Published 08 February 2021 | viewed 19,104 times Iraq needs crude oil to trade at $80 a barrel to be able to plug its budget holes, according to oil minister Ihsan Abdul Jabbar… Iran Denies Knowledge Of Oil Tanker U.S. Wants To Seize Published 08 February 2021 | viewed 12,935 times Iran has denied any knowledge of an oil tanker that the United States has targeted for seizure because it was used to export crude from… Absolute-Zero Is The New Net-Zero For Emissions Published 07 February 2021 | viewed 7,113 times The net-zero emissions goal of many governments has more or less become part of everyday life. We’ve all heard about these plans, and we may… Fossil Fuels Aren’t Going Anywhere Published 05 February 2021 | viewed 88,899 times “There is no scenario where hydrocarbons disappear,” the chief executive of Baker Hughes, Lorenzo Simonelli, said during his keynote speech at this year’s annual meeting… South Korea To Build World’s Largest Offshore Wind Farm Published 05 February 2021 | viewed 5,110 times South Korea will invest some $43 billion in constructing what is to be the world’s largest offshore wind farm, Reuters reports, adding that the project… China’s Oil Major CNOOC Boosts Capex To 7-Year High Despite Pandemic Published 05 February 2021 | viewed 4,639 times Chinese state oil and gas company CNOOC will boost its capital spending this year to the highest in seven years, thanks to a 5-percent increase… Cold Weather Pushes Gas Prices Above $3 Published 04 February 2021 | viewed 7,246 times The weather doesn’t always follow traders’ hopes and expectations. However, it sometimes exceeds them. December and January saw a surge in natural gas prices in… India Worried About Rapid Oil Price Rally Published 04 February 2021 | viewed 10,208 times India’s Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan has warned that higher oil prices could interfere with global economic recovery in the latest signal from New Delhi—one of… Edited February 11, 2021 by Tom Nolan Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN February 11, 2021 Energy Minister Angus Taylor says the Australian government is increasing its fuel stocks but would “prefer to have that refining capacity” as pressure builds on fuel security after ExxonMobil plans to close its Altona oil refinery. ExxonMobil announced on Wednesday it will close the refinery in Melbourne’s west which first opened in 1949. Mr Taylor said Exxon made it very clear “it wouldn’t matter what we put on the table” as it was determined to make the decision anyway. He said with reduced refining capacity due to the closure, the government has decided to raise the minimum fuel stock holding. “As of November last year we had about 86 days (of fuel), we averaged 81 days across the year, but it needs to be higher which is why we’ve recently set a mandatory minimum stock holding with a particular focus on diesel,” Mr Taylor said. “We expect those oil companies to hold those higher levels of stock. It’s important we get our stock levels up and the government has stepped in in recent months. “Fuel security can be managed by increased stocks and we’re doing exactly that, but we would prefer to have that refining capacity.” (10 minutes) Only 2 refiners would be left in Australia. https://youtu.be/KCiNiwhQCsU Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN February 11, 2021 US Shifts Official Justification Of Its Illegal Presence In Syria From "Guarding Oil" To "Fighting ISIS" https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-shifts-official-justification-its-illegal-presence-syria-guarding-oil-fighting-isis Wednesday, Feb 10, 2021 - 22:45 Submitted by Khaled Iskef via SouthFront.org, On February 9, the Pentagon announced that its forces in Syria are no longer responsible for the protection of the oil wells. A Pentagon spokesman, John Kirby, said that the employees and contractors of the US Department of Defense are no longer allowed to assist any private company seeking to exploit the oil resources in Syria, nor to help the employees of this company or its agents. Kirby added that the 900 personnel stationed in the region are there to support the mission of fighting ISIS only, which is the main reason for their presence. The announcement of the US Department to shift the formal objectives of its military presence in Syria goes contrary to the position of the administration of former President Donald Trump. President Joe Biden announced that it would fix what Trump ‘sabotaged’ in the US policies. Two years ago, Trump that he would keep a limited contingent of US forces in Syria to protect the oil wells, and said at the time that the US forces would take their share of the Syrian oil. Last July, the SDF signed an agreement with a private US company called Delta Crescent Energy to modernize the oil wells seized by the SDF with the support of US forces, and to smuggle the oil extracted from them outside the Syrian territories. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
El Nikko + 2,145 nb February 11, 2021 8 hours ago, Tom Nolan said: US Shifts Official Justification Of Its Illegal Presence In Syria From "Guarding Oil" To "Fighting ISIS" https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-shifts-official-justification-its-illegal-presence-syria-guarding-oil-fighting-isis Wednesday, Feb 10, 2021 - 22:45 Submitted by Khaled Iskef via SouthFront.org, On February 9, the Pentagon announced that its forces in Syria are no longer responsible for the protection of the oil wells. A Pentagon spokesman, John Kirby, said that the employees and contractors of the US Department of Defense are no longer allowed to assist any private company seeking to exploit the oil resources in Syria, nor to help the employees of this company or its agents. Kirby added that the 900 personnel stationed in the region are there to support the mission of fighting ISIS only, which is the main reason for their presence. The announcement of the US Department to shift the formal objectives of its military presence in Syria goes contrary to the position of the administration of former President Donald Trump. President Joe Biden announced that it would fix what Trump ‘sabotaged’ in the US policies. Two years ago, Trump that he would keep a limited contingent of US forces in Syria to protect the oil wells, and said at the time that the US forces would take their share of the Syrian oil. Last July, the SDF signed an agreement with a private US company called Delta Crescent Energy to modernize the oil wells seized by the SDF with the support of US forces, and to smuggle the oil extracted from them outside the Syrian territories. I would serious hope at this point that anyone with half a brain knows that ISIS isn't some bunch of random muslim terrorists and rather a proxy army funded by many states. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Kramer + 696 R February 11, 2021 Shell to pledge 2% yearly decline in production. I think discipline will stick. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
El Nikko + 2,145 nb February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said: Shell to pledge 2% yearly decline in production. I think discipline will stick. Like BP they're getting on the gravy train of bucket loads of 'free money' which will continue for quite some time as our central banks blow up their balance sheets in to infinity and beyond....the green bandwagon (paid for buy our children and grandchildren) has only just begun. ------------------------- Anglo-Dutch supermajor Shell has reaffirmed its commitment to becoming a net-zero company by 2050, saying that its oil production peaked in 2019 and is set for a continual decline over the next three decades. At the same time, Shell said its carbon dioxide emissions also likely peaked, a year earlier, in 2018. “Our accelerated strategy will drive down carbon emissions and will deliver value for our shareholders, our customers and wider society,” chief executive Ben van Beurden said. “We must give our customers the products and services they want and need – products that have the lowest environmental impact. At the same time, we will use our established strengths to build on our competitive portfolio as we make the transition to be a net-zero emissions business in step with society,” he added. The company has set itself new, stricter emission-reduction targets, seeking to curb its CO2 footprint by 6 to 8 percent by 2023 from 2016 levels, then further by 20 percent from 2016 levels by 2030, and by 45 percent from 2016 levels by 2035 before hitting the 100-percent emissions target by 2050. These targets, the company said, include all of the emissions associated with its business operations as well as emissions generated from the use of its products by customers. Shell reported an 87-percent plunge in 2020 profits from a year earlier. While the result was negatively affected by the pandemic, Shell still managed to remain in the black, unlike peers including BP and Exxon. Despite Shell’s plans to keep producing less and less oil, Van Beurden said earlier this month he expected oil demand to recover, climbing closer to pre-pandemic levels by 2022. “Aviation will be a very significant contributor to that remaining recovery that we need to see,” said van Beurden, echoing estimates from analysts who see jet fuel demand as the main drag on global oil demand recovery. By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
El Nikko + 2,145 nb February 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said: Shell to pledge 2% yearly decline in production. I think discipline will stick. ...and good! Step aside for the smart smaller companies that know what they're doing. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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