“Cushing Oil Inventories Are Soaring Again” By Tsvetana Paraskova

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Oil Prices Take A Breather After Big Rally

By Tom Kool - Dec 11, 2020, 2:00 PM CST

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Takes-a-Breather-After-Big-Rally.html

Oil prices fell back on Friday morning following a strong rally on the back of an OPEC+ agreement and new COVID-19 vaccine rollouts around the globe.

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Friday, December 11th, 2020

Brent hit $50 per barrel on Thursday for the first time since March, edging higher on optimism surrounding vaccinations, the OPEC+ deal, plus strong demand in Asia. However, prices eased a bit on Friday as demand in Europe and the U.S. remains subdued and Covid-19 cases continue to spread. The EIA also reported a surge in crude inventories for last week, up 15.2 million barrels.

Signs of demand rebound in Europe. Many European countries went back into lockdown in November, but are loosening restrictions again. Bloomberg says that road usage is on the rise, hitting a two-month high.

Pemex suspends work with Vitol. Pemex suspended business with Vitol after the oil trader paid $160 million to settle bribery charges. Vitol settled charges for paying bribes in Brazil, Mexico and Ecuador.

Exxon makes Suriname discovery. ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and its partner Petronas announced a discovery in offshore Suriname, the first in the country for the partnership. The discovery adds to Exxon’s already large footprint in neighboring Guyana.

SEC to vote on disclosures. The Securities and Exchange Commission will vote on December 16 on whether or not to approve new disclosure rules for oil, gas and mining companies related to payments to foreign governments. It is the third iteration of the rule and stems from the 2010 Dodd-Frank law.

BLM fast-tracks Uinta Basin land sale. The Trump administration is fast-tracking a proposed 2,100 lease sale in Utah for tar sands developers. 

Germany hopes to insulate Nord Stream 2. Germany is looking for ways to insulate the Nord Stream 2 project from U.S. sanctions. The pipeline is more than 90% finished but has been held up by sanctions. 

EU clinches deal on tougher CO2 targets. The European Union has agreed to tighten climate targets to 55% reduction in CO2 by 2030 (from a 1990 baseline), ramping up ambition from the current 40% reduction. Carbon prices in Europe rose to 31 euros per tonne, an all-time high.

Texas regulator banned from waiving environmental rules. The Texas Railroad Commission has been banned from enforcing a string of environmental rule waivers after a judge ruled the agency had failed to provide the public with adequate advance notice of such moves, first proposed in the spring.

Top shale gas basin continues to bleed cash. Frackers in the top shale gas basin, the Appalachia, continue to bleed cash, despite the deep cuts in capital expenditures this year as a result of the plunge in gas prices in the first half of 2020 due to mild winter early in the year and depressed demand later on with the pandemic.

Investors turn to SPACs. Burned by shale, investors are increasingly turning to clean energy SPACs, according to the Wall Street Journal. Private equity has done more deals in clean energy than oil and gas in 2020. Special-purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) are a new popular vehicle – SPACs raise money, go public, and only then do they merge with a startup company. The number of SPACs has skyrocketed this year. 

Some companies could benefit from a pipeline shortage. Some pipeline operators with pipes already in the ground will see the value of their existing pipelines rise amid a looming scarcity of infrastructure, analysts say.

Shell executives resign over the pace of transition. Some top executives at Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) resigned over a disagreement over how quickly the company would pursue its clean energy transition. 

Consolidation in Canada’s oil industry. Whitecap Resources (TSE: WCP) said it would buy rival TORC Oil & Gas Ltd (TSE: TOG) in an all-stock deal worth C$552 million. It’s the latest sign that the downturn is forcing consolidation in the industry.

Oil majors take advantage of tax havens. Reuters published an investigation detailing how the oil majors shift billions of dollars in profits to tax havens, often in island nations in the Caribbean. From Reuters: “In 2018 and 2019, Shell earned more than $2.7 billion - about 7% of its total income in those years - tax-free by reporting profits in companies located in Bermuda and the Bahamas that employed just 39 people and generated the bulk of their revenue from other Shell entities.”

UAE awards contract to Occidental. Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) won a contract for exploration in the UAE.

New York to divest from fossil fuels. The New York State Common Retirement Fund said it would divest itself from the riskiest oil and gas stocks by 2025. The $226 billion pension fund is the largest yet to divest from fossil fuels. 

Oilfield services lost more than 91,000 jobs. The U.S. oilfield services sector lost91,680 jobs since the market downturn started last March.

D.E. Shaw pushes Exxon to cut CAPEX deeper. D.E. Shaw & Co., which owns a sizable portion of ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), is pressuring the oil major to cut its spending in order to protect the dividend. The shareholder argues that Exxon is overspending and posting poor returns, resulting in its position slipping below that of chevron (NYSE: CVX). D.E. Shaw says Exxon should slash CAPEX to $13 billion, down from a planned $23 billion this year.

WoodMac: 77% of LNG projects at risk. A new report from Wood Mackenzie says that 77% of new LNG projects are at risk in a 2-degree climate scenario. In other words, climate policy will result in renewables outcompeting LNG. 

LNG gaining traction in shipping. Recently enacted IMO rules are forcing the shipping industry to use alternative fuels to slash emissions. LNG is gaining traction as a fuel source, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Tesla’s shares “dramatically overvalued.” JPMorgan said that Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) was “dramatically overvalued.” The company’s shares have climbed 800% in the past two years.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com 

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Oil Falls After OPEC Slashes Q1 2021 Demand Forecast

By ZeroHedge - Dec 14, 2020, 11:00 AM CST

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Falls-After-OPEC-Slashes-Q1-2021-Demand-Forecast.html

Having just recently agreed a new production quota, which along with vaccine hype has spurred oil prices to their highest since March, OPEC just reduced projections for global fuel consumption in the first quarter of 2021 by 1 million barrels a day, it said in a monthly report.

Demand will increase by just 500,000 barrels from that quarter -- the same amount the cartel and its partners agreed they’ll add in January.

This sent WTI back below $47...

As Bloomberg reports, the 23-nation OPEC+ coalition led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will meet on Jan. 4 to consider whether they can press on with further monthly increases.

“Uncertainties remain high, mainly surrounding the development of the Covid-19 pandemic and rollout of vaccines, as well as the structural impact of Covid-19 on consumer behaviors, predominantly in transportation sector,” OPEC’s Vienna-based secretariat said in the report.

The alliance is currently idling 7.7 million barrels a day, or about 8% of global output. In three weeks, it will decide whether the January increase should be followed by another addition of as many as 500,000 barrels a day as it sets about reviving a total of 2 million barrels.

Additionally, stockpiles in developed nations remained 200 million barrels above their five-year average in October, according to OPEC’s report.

By Zerohedge.com

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Oil Bulls Are Back Despite New COVID Lockdowns

By Josh Owens - Dec 15, 2020, 1:00 PM CST

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-bulls-back-despite-covid-190000407.html

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Bulls-Are-Back-Despite-New-COVID-Lockdowns.html

Oil prices continue to rise as the distribution of vaccines boosts optimism, with oil bulls appearing to ignore new lockdowns across Europe

Chart of the Week

-        In 2019, the average monthly electricity bill for households declined to $115 per month, down by 1.8% compared to 2018.

-    That came despite rising prices – average electricity prices rose by 12.87 cents per kWh. Lower bills were the result of lower consumption. 

-    Hawaii has the highest electricity bills in the country, while Alabama, South Carolina and Mississippi had the lowest.

Market Movers

-    New Fortress Energy (NASDAQ: NFE) said it would offer $250 million in debt at 6.75% on senior secured notes due in 2025.

-    Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC) announced a 2021 CAPEX plan of $3.5-$ billion, with 80% of that focused on Columbia, and the remaining 20% in Brazil and the U.S.

-    Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A), Eni (NYSE: E), and other partners in the Karachaganak oil project paid $1.3 billion to Kazakhstan to settle a longstanding dispute over revenue sharing.

Tuesday, December 15, 2020

Brent rose above $50 per barrel in recent days and has held there at the start of this week. The beginning of widespread vaccinations in Western Europe and North America has led to a surge of optimism. At the same time, the Covid-19 wave is at its worst. “Brent is continuing to defy all the negative news,” said Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank. “More and more countries in Europe and states in the U.S. are tightening the corona restrictions over Christmas and the new year, which is likely to weigh on demand.”

IEA cuts 2021 forecast. The IEA cut its 2021 demand forecast by 170,000 bpd, largely due to a downgrade in jet fuel demand. 

Oil tanker attacked in Jeddah. An “explosive-laden” boat struck a fuel tanker at the Saudi port of Jeddah. There were no casualties and no disruptions to fuel supplies, the Saudi government said. 

LNG prices skyrocket. Spot LNG prices in Asia – JKM – fell below $2/MMBtu earlier this year, but have recently spiked as demand picks up. Prices spiked above $12/MMBtu.

Venezuela’s environmental nightmare. Venezuela’s oil industry has collapsed and as Bloomberg Green reports, it is resulting in an environmental disaster.

Exxon’s Guyana venture is paying off. The growing oil boom in the offshore Guyana-Suriname Basin continues to gain pace. Exxon’s latest discovery in neighboring Suriname adds even more momentum.

Exxon announces a carbon-intensity plan. ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) is not exactly willing to cut emissions on an absolute basis, but under withering pressure from investors, activists, and civil society, the oil major announced plans to lower carbon intensity. Exxon said it would cut emissions per production 15% to 20% below 2016 levels. But emissions could still rise if production rises. The move comes weeks after several European buyers balked at U.S. LNG shipments over concerns about methane emissions from U.S. shale.

Exxon cuts 700 jobs. ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) cut 700 jobs in its Houston office.

Bombshell report pours cold water on global LNG. Wood Mackenzie is warning that global energy transition goals could threaten more than two-thirds of the world’s supply of liquefied natural gas, leaving trillions of cubic meters of gas in resources stranded.

Parsley Energy lays off workers ahead of Pioneer merger. Parsley Energy (NYSE: PE) will lay off most of its workforce in Austin as part of its sale to Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD).

Canada to hike carbon price to $170/tonne by 2030. Canada will put a carbon price of as much as $170 per tonne by 2030, up from $30 currently. The tax will rise by around $15 per year to reach that higher threshold at the end of the decade. The result could be gasoline prices that are 37 cents per gallon higher by 2030.

Canada’s oil sands back in favor. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs each issued notes to clients highlighting Canadian oil sands producers for their ability to generate cash flow. They singled out Suncor Energy (NYSE: SU), Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE: CNQ) and MEG Energy Corp. (TSE: MEG). The eight largest oil sands producers generated $1.4 billion combined in free cash flow in the third quarter.  

UK to end fossil fuel financing overseas. The UK said it would halt all financing for overseas fossil fuel projects as part of its latest climate initiative. 

Germany aims for 65% renewables by 2030. Germany tightened its energy law, hiking its renewables goal to 65% by 2030.

Tesla hikes output amid rising demand. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) said demand for its vehicles is so high that it would try to ramp up production this month. “We are fortunate to have the high-class problem of demand being quite a bit higher than production this quarter,” Elon Musk wrote in an email to staff.

Australia to subsidize refineries. Australia will pay a subsidy to struggling refineries to keep them open.

European heavy-duty trucks to phase out ICE engine. Heavy-duty truck makers in Europe announced plans to phase out the internal combustion engine by 2040. 

EV sales to grow by 50% in 2021. Global sales of EVs could rise by as much as 50% next year, with ICE sales growing by just 2% to 5% (although from a much larger base), according to Morgan Stanley. 2021 “is shaping up to be a critical year for EV adoption and (internal combustion engine) de-adoption that will dictate the pace of multiple expansion, contraction, consolidation, and proliferation” among the stocks, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said in the note.

Forest Service approves Mountain Valley Pipeline. The U.S. Forest Service issued an environmental impact statement supporting the Mountain Valley Pipeline’s route through the Jefferson National Forest. The document allows the pipeline to clear a key hurdle in the project’s completion.

Bakken no growth through at least 2022. North Dakota officials do not see any production growth from the Bakken through 2022 as companies reel from the latest downturn.

China hopes to boost shale gas. China is looking to attract investments in shale gas developments by easing restrictions on foreign entities and subsidizing costs in a bid to boost its natural gas production while its demand continues to grow.  

Scotiabank rules out Arctic oil. Scotiabank became the fifth major Canadian bank to prohibit financing oil in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Most major banks in both the U.S. and Canada have now blocked financing in ANWR, but the Trump administration is hoping to finalize a lease sale before January 20.

Clean energy provisions tucked into spending bill. U.S. House and Senate leaders have agreed to include some clean energy innovation measures into a major omnibus spending bill. The bipartisan measures promote nuclear power, energy storage, carbon capture, and direct air capture.

EV models to triple in three years. The number of electric vehicle models available to consumers is expected to more than triple in the next three years, from roughly 40 to 127 in the United States.

Solar installations soaring 43%. U.S. solar installations shot up 43% this year to over 19 GW, shrugging off the pandemic. 

By Josh Owens for Oilprice.com

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,245]

@Tom Nolan  Oil Reverses After API Reports Inventory Build Across The Board | OilPrice.com

I tend not to read to far into the future of oil as more oil is coming online and demand is still somewhat dismal.

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

59 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

@Tom Nolan  Oil Reverses After API Reports Inventory Build Across The Board | OilPrice.com

I tend not to read to far into the future of oil as more oil is coming online and demand is still somewhat dismal.

I agree.

I believe that this recent price "spike" we have been seeing is because of money players in the futures market trying to make a buck.  It is not based on fundamentals.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

On 12/2/2020 at 1:50 PM, Enthalpic said:

I read that article.   It's not a "paper" that underwent scientific peer review. It is opinion, perhaps expert opinion, but still opinion.  You can find other experts that say the exact opposite. "John Hopkins" does not put it's name on that -  so stop that appeal to authority. 

Also it was retracted because they (JHU) felt it was dangerous misinformation.

Find real info using searches; Pubmed not youtube or alt-right media.  

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/

 

How about YOU review what you actually post in your own damn links... your "CDC" excess deaths is nothing but a model pumping out "expected" numbers, not actual deaths.  CDC actually did use to publish the weekly deaths WITHOUT expected... Let me quote CDC's own methods for you from YOUR OWN LINK:

Counts of deaths in the most recent weeks were compared with historical trends (from 2013 to present) to determine whether the number of deaths in recent weeks was significantly higher than expected, using Farrington surveillance algorithms (1). The ‘surveillance’ package in R (2) was used to implement the Farrington algorithms, which use overdispersed Poisson generalized linear models with spline terms to model trends in counts, accounting for seasonality. For each jurisdiction, a model is used to generate a set of expected counts, and an upper bound threshold based on a one-sided 95% prediction interval of these expected counts is used to determine whether a significant increase in deaths has occurred. Estimates of excess deaths are provided based on the observed number of deaths relative to two different thresholds. The lower end of the excess death estimate range is generated by comparing the observed counts to the upper bound threshold, and a higher end of the excess death estimate range is generated by comparing the observed count to the average expected number of deaths. Reported counts were weighted to account for potential underreporting in the most recent weeks.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

3 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

How about YOU review what you actually post in your own damn links... your "CDC" excess deaths is nothing but a model pumping out "expected" numbers, not actual deaths.  CDC actually did use to publish the weekly deaths WITHOUT expected... Let me quote CDC's own methods for you from YOUR OWN LINK:

Counts of deaths in the most recent weeks were compared with historical trends (from 2013 to present) to determine whether the number of deaths in recent weeks was significantly higher than expected, using Farrington surveillance algorithms (1). The ‘surveillance’ package in R (2) was used to implement the Farrington algorithms, which use overdispersed Poisson generalized linear models with spline terms to model trends in counts, accounting for seasonality. For each jurisdiction, a model is used to generate a set of expected counts, and an upper bound threshold based on a one-sided 95% prediction interval of these expected counts is used to determine whether a significant increase in deaths has occurred. Estimates of excess deaths are provided based on the observed number of deaths relative to two different thresholds. The lower end of the excess death estimate range is generated by comparing the observed counts to the upper bound threshold, and a higher end of the excess death estimate range is generated by comparing the observed count to the average expected number of deaths. Reported counts were weighted to account for potential underreporting in the most recent weeks.

Their word usage is a bit odd so I can understand how you would be confused.

"Expected deaths" is death rate based on historical data.  It is not the number expected to die from covid.

"Excess deaths" is the number of deaths observed minus the normal a.k.a "expected" number of deaths for a given time period.

 

Edited December 16, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

[Boat + 1,323]

On 11/28/2020 at 11:12 PM, 0R0 said:

Commentary on Pfizer's airways meds chief (retired) Dr. Yeadon's video

The 2nd wave in the cities is fake, made up of false positives on hyped up tests doing well over 40 PCR cycles, In my temp tracking on Kinsa it is obvious that the big cities are largely cool zones. They got herd immunity at the first go. The entire show there is Kabuki. There is nothing resembling an actual second wave there. In flatter cities there is a sort of 2nd wave that is quite minor.

http://tapnewswire.com/2020/11/pandemic-is-over-former-pfizer-chief-science-officer-says-second-wave-faked-on-false-positive-tests/

They will run out of excuses to keep the Dem cities locked down when nobody shows up in the hospital and nobody dies with CV19.

Well now that we’re 1/2 way into December your projection of Covid is similar to your projection of election results. Your crystal ball is broke. You Russian, Chinese or Republican. Your propaganda for sure.

Edited December 16, 2020 by Boat

[Rob Kramer + 696]

6 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Is that all covid tho? I don't dig with the US info . But in Canada that graph looks similar but with 2 waves. Also the middle had excess deaths that were from drug overdose.  As the rates have spiked 51% . So Alberta and BC were seeing 100 OD/ month each while BC had 40 covid deaths over a few months in summer . Overdose is bad here in Ontario too Hamilton had 18 last week.

Edited December 16, 2020 by Rob Kramer

[Rob Kramer + 696]

On 11/27/2020 at 8:09 AM, Rob Kramer said:

There is a few more weak demand eia reports coming up then globally it will be go time . And they'll thank the vaccine.  I'm just happy its almost over whatever people think. Time for high oil and slow economic recession recovery.  Thats what the people voted for! 

Covid delayed the end part (kinda)^

- I'm seeing tax time as the next oil and socks rip period (more specifically cdn oil stocks rip) . Due to timing. New tfsa room. Covid turning the corner. The new year "restart" feeling, thoes who were holding out or tax loss sold or fear of missing out ect. Plus oil demand should look better. Oil and products will look to be trending down. My free opinion.  I'm all oil right now tho gas is trying to bait me. Copper gold and silver are on my brain with inflation trade. Not a USD (DXY) expert tho. I just know capex in oil and gas + eia data. (And shale is more resilient than I thought i had US @ 10.4 Million Barrels. And decline of 300k/month vs 150k as per eia dpr + 10k adjustment) . Still 2M/boe d was shed. Also gas production was more resilient.  I expected US supply at 84 vs the 89 its at. And winter has been warm but thats always an unknown. 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

1 hour ago, Rob Kramer said:

Covid delayed the end part (kinda)^

- I'm seeing tax time as the next oil and socks rip period (more specifically cdn oil stocks rip) . Due to timing. New tfsa room. Covid turning the corner. The new year "restart" feeling, thoes who were holding out or tax loss sold or fear of missing out ect. Plus oil demand should look better. Oil and products will look to be trending down. My free opinion.  I'm all oil right now tho gas is trying to bait me. Copper gold and silver are on my brain with inflation trade. Not a USD (DXY) expert tho. I just know capex in oil and gas + eia data. (And shale is more resilient than I thought i had US @ 10.4 Million Barrels. And decline of 300k/month vs 150k as per eia dpr + 10k adjustment) . Still 2M/boe d was shed. Also gas production was more resilient.  I expected US supply at 84 vs the 89 its at. And winter has been warm but thats always an unknown. 

I like seeing your input.

If there is a stimulus package (fiscal spending which is government spending, as opposed to monetary spending which is Fed QE)...if a stimulus package happens, then I think we will see a spike in silver and gold prices.  Silver has the best buy outlook in my opinion.

A "very low cost per ounce by industry standards" Colorado silver mine will come into production this early Spring.  I think their stock is a good buy.  AUNFF Aurcana

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Oil Jumps On Crude Inventory Draw

By Irina Slav - Dec 16, 2020, 9:37 AM CST

Crude oil prices rose today after the Energy Information Administration reported a crude oil inventory decline of 3.1 million barrels for the week to December 11.

The report came out a day after the American Petroleum Institute estimated inventory builds across crude and fuels, pressuring prices just as they had started to improve again.

Analysts had expected the EIA to report a 3.5-million-barrel decline in crude oil inventories for the week to December 11, after it estimated a huge build of over 15 million barrels for the previous week.

In gasoline, the authority reported an inventory build of 1 million barrels for last week, which compared with a hefty increase of 4.2 million barrels for the previous week, following another increase, of 3.5 million bpd for the week before that. Gasoline production last week averaged 8.5 million bpd, which compared with 8.3 million bpd a week earlier.

In middle distillates, the EIA estimated an inventory increase of 200,000 barrels for the week to December 11, compared with a build of 5.2 million barrels for the previous week and another, of 3.2 million barrels, for the week before that. Distillate fuel production averaged 4.6 million bpd last week, compared with 4.7 million bpd for the prior week.

API’s inventory report surprised market participants, causing a decline in prices, which was also fueled by renewed worry about demand as several European countries reinstated or tightened their movement restrictions—despite the upcoming holidays—to stem the spread of the coronavirus.

It appears the initial enthusiasm about oil demand recovery driven by mass vaccinations has started to wear off as the challenges come to the surface in terms of availability and distribution. These challenges mean it will take more than a few weeks to vaccinate enough people to be able to talk about a return to normal, just like medical experts warned at the height of the vaccine hype a month ago.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

Bearish article authors.  But but but?!. Sorry Irina Slav your guess is wrong as oil prices flipped from -.2% to +.5%. 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

@Tom Nolan I've been reading Copper is best inflation trade material leverage via producers. But I know silver was for the longest time a coiled spring mabey it still is. I stick to what I know (oil) but new year might diversify. PXT.TO is my "safe place" in oil as zero debt, 10% share buy backs and a 23 dollar USD break even. On their core production. So its hard to diversify when you can guarantee a 11% per share growth minimum. (Note that stock prices don't follow per share growth in short term). I like the colombian producers because there's a natural 3 way hedge.  Earn in USD @ Brent.  Pay workers in Pesos. Have shares and dividend in CAD. So wherever the USD or Oil goes the saftey net comes out. Cheap USD oil up . Oil down USD up CAD low (div and buy back are cheap) + USD up = peso down cheap labour. Were in a middle almost. 50$ brent . 1.2 USD to CAD. Peso fairly low. Anyways something you might find interesting. 

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,245]

1 hour ago, Rob Kramer said:

Bearish article authors.  But but but?!. Sorry Irina Slav your guess is wrong as oil prices flipped from -.2% to +.5%. 

Yesterday's API contradicts todays EIA report. How can they be wrong like the weathermen and still keep their jobs?? The mysteries of the oil markets 🙂

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

7 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

Is that all covid tho?

Unknown, that is the beauty and weakness of the excess death model.

If you put "unknown" on every death certificate there clearly still is more deaths than normal.  This removes the over/mis-diagnosed.   arguments.

The lockdowns, may increase deaths due to substance abuse and other mental health problems, but they also reduce transmission of other diseases and deaths from traffic fatalities. Fear of going to a hospital increases increases mortality from other diseases like heart disease.

Due to so many variables it is impossible to isolate any one factor from the data.   It is obvious, however, that something is going on.

 

 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

11 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Unknown, that is the beauty and weakness of the excess death model.

If you put "unknown" on every death certificate there clearly still is more deaths than normal.  This removes the over/mis-diagnosed.   arguments.

The lockdowns, may increase deaths due to substance abuse and other mental health problems, but they also reduce transmission of other diseases and deaths from traffic fatalities. Fear of going to a hospital increases increases mortality from other diseases like heart disease.

Due to so many variables it is impossible to isolate any one factor from the data.   It is obvious, however, that something is going on.

 

 

I agree. But there is statistics on it (all deaths) so to say "impossible to isolate" is true for any one factor but not true for number calculations of deaths. The last news article using stats.can data was saying 7k excess deaths (or there abouts) but when non covid death was removed it was fairly low around 4k and thats because lower than normal causes from other deaths due to the lockdown (and higher than norm deaths due to lockdown but not virus) - And it listed canceled operations as one reason for lowered deaths - to me thats a big deal because I'd only have an operation to prolong my life 🙃 - (but) this is trailing data and now aged as its only the first 8 months of the year so it will be interesting to calculate the full year. Again i dont disagree theres a quick spreading bug thats quite damaging to some. All I'm saying is from the data in the first 8 months is you can't have your cake and eat it too. Both the virus and the cure (or slowing of it... however its veiwed) have a cost in both dollars and lives. Of course like proper nutrition vs masks or other stats like how 15% of Canada smoking can kill 48k/yr the news will focus in on covid deaths alone even tho there's tons of news about all deaths statistics. 

Edit: also just noting that is with accepting covids deaths as from instead of with * as many on my viewpoints side (of covid being over exaggerated vs other deaths under rated) do not accept.  So in reality I'm in the middle of the veiws. ( Like my politics I feel far right but were I to be the one with power (money) I'd use it in a fairly social way )

Edited December 17, 2020 by Rob Kramer

[Rob Kramer + 696]

15 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

Yesterday's API contradicts todays EIA report. How can they be wrong like the weathermen and still keep their jobs?? The mysteries of the oil markets 🙂

To be serious, HFI Research on Twitter uses a running adjustment between crAPI and EIA and puts out estimates on the EIA and is accurate enough that I'd call it usable. Its interesting tho why they have the API when EIA is there and generally more accepted. 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

19 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Due to so many variables it is impossible to isolate any one factor from the data.   It is obvious, however, that something is going on.

Enthalpic, I never thought that I would hear you say something sane.  Well done.

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Oil At 9-Month High While Bitcoin Soars Past $23,000

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Dec 17, 2020, 11:00 AM CST

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-At-9-Month-High-While-Bitcoin-Soars-Past-23000.html

Oil prices continued to rise on Thursday morning, reaching a nine-month high on a U.S. crude inventory draw and a weak dollar, while the price of bitcoin jumped to a record high of above $23,000, just a day after hitting the $20,000 mark.

The price of the most popular cryptocurrency surged to over $23,000 on Thursday morning, tripling so far this year.

“These are extraordinary gains in such a short period of time and bitcoin has a history of doing well amidst the hype. Can USD30,000 be on the cards by Christmas? Why not,” Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst - UK & EMEA at OANDA, wrote in a market commentary on Thursday.

Bitcoin’s Thursday rally above $23,000 was also fueled by “a new ‘whale’, Ruffer Investment, announcing a $744 million investment in bitcoin and after Guggenheim Partners CIO Scott Minerd claimed that bitcoin should be worth $400,000, based on its scarcity and relative value to gold as a percentage of GDP,” John Hardy, Head of FX Strategy at Saxo Bank, said.

Oil prices, for their part, were boosted early on Thursday by Wednesday’s EIA report showing a crude oil inventory decline of 3.1 million barrels for the week to December 11. The report came out a day after the American Petroleum Institute estimated inventory builds across crude and fuels, pressuring prices just as they had started to improve again.

As of 11:19 a.m. ET on Thursday, the WTI Crude price was up 0.69 percent at $48.17, and Brent Crude was trading up 0.67 percent at $51.36. A weak dollar and hopes of a U.S. stimulus package supported the prices, as did a more optimistic assessment of the economy from the Fed.  

“We can kind of see the light at the end of the tunnel,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on a news conference on Wednesday.

“We’re thinking that this could be another long expansion,” Powell added.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Why There’s Still Room For Oil To Go Higher

By Irina Slav - Dec 17, 2020, 7:00 PM CST

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Why-Theres-Still-Room-For-Oil-To-Go-Higher.html

Crude oil prices are on the rise again after a short reversal of fortunes prompted by a huge crude oil inventory build reported by the U.S. EIA last week and renewed worry about demand. And the reason they are rising is, in fact, demand from China and India. China has been the main driver of oil prices this year because of its massive refining capacity and growing storage capacity. To fill up its reserves, China went on a buying spree earlier this year, when oil was at its lowest, battered by the Saudi-Russian price war and the looming pandemic. Now reserves may be full, but Chinese companies are still buying—and driving prices higher.

Bloomberg reported this week Chinese and Indian refineries are buying more crude oil than last month, pushing prices up, in some cases by as much as $3.50 per barrel over the benchmarks. The spot market has also seen a revival thanks to the appetite of Asian refiners, the report noted.

The increased buying comes amid surging refinery rates in China. Last month, the average daily processing rate in the country hit 14.2 million bpd, up 3.2 percent on the year. This was a new all-time high, shattering the previous record set a month earlier, in October.

In India, state refiners are operating at full tilt, according to another Bloomberg report, as gasoline demand surges despite, or rather because of, the pandemic. A growing number of people in India are choosing to drive their own cars instead of using public transport, which is at the heart of the gasoline demand rise.

Both countries are boosting their refining capacity in the meantime. China is already on track to surpass the United States as the world’s biggest oil refiner next year or the year after. Last year, refiners added some 1 million bpd to existing capacity, and there is another 1.4 million bpd of capacity under construction. Some believe a lot of this capacity will end up unusable as the country moves towards a more renewable-heavy energy mix. 

For now, though, it appears that all added capacity is being used.

India is boosting its capacity for oil refining, too. In November, Prime Minister Narendra Modi surprised many when he said there were government plans to increase the country’s refining capacity twofold over the next five years. Earlier this year, Modi had said the plan was to double India’s refining capacity over ten years, but strong demand must have made the government reconsider the timeline. Currently, India has a refining capacity of 250 million tons, or a little more than 5 million bpd, based on a conversion factor of 7.33 barrels per metric ton of oil. 

“Asia is very much driving the market at the moment,” Energy Aspects analyst Kitt Haines told Bloomberg. “We will need the Asian buying momentum to sustain, otherwise things could get weak.”

If Asia’s buying momentum does not continue indeed, things can get very weak. The World Bank recently said it expected oil prices to average $44 per barrel next year. That’s despite vaccine news as consumption will remain at lower than pre-pandemic levels, according to the World Bank. Others, such as Goldman Sachs, are more optimistic, citing mass vaccinations as the driver of higher oil prices, seeing Brent at $65 per barrel in 2021.

Yet vaccinations on their own will not be enough, however fast they are rolled out. Europe and the U.S. will yet take months to return to growth, while China’s economy has already snapped back to growth. India’s GDP is also recovering faster than expected, and GDP could soar by 10 percent in financial 2021/2022. It is no surprise, then, that these two countries together are driving oil prices higher. The only problem is that a stumble for either of them will mean an immediate slump in prices.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Oil, Gas Rigs Increase For Fourth Week In A Row

By Julianne Geiger - Dec 18, 2020, 12:15 PM CST

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Gas-Rigs-Increase-For-Fourth-Week-In-A-Row.html

Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of oil rigs in the United States rose by 5 to 263.

The total number of active oil and gas rigs increased for the week by 8. The oil and gas rig count has risen for four weeks in a row for a four-week gain of 36. Oil rigs increased by 5 and gas rigs rose by 2. Miscellaneous rigs rose by 1.

Total oil and gas rigs in the United States are now down by 467 compared to this time last year.

The EIA’s estimate for oil production in the United States fell to 11.0 million barrels of oil per day, 2.1 million bpd off the all-time high reached earlier this year.

Canada’s overall rig count also decreased this week, by 9 for the second week in a row. Oil and gas rigs in Canada are now at 112 active rigs, and down 47 year on year. 

The Permian basin saw an increase of 6 rigs this week, bt rigs in the basin are still down 240 from a year ago, for a total of 174 rigs.

Check back later today for the Frac Spread Count by Primary Vision.

WTI and Brent were both trading up on Friday, extending the gains made earlier in the week on OPEC and vaccine optimism. Oil prices are now at 9-month highs.   

At 11:46 a.m. EDT, WTI was trading up 1.34% on the day at $49.01 and up roughly $2.50 on the week.  Brent was trading up 1.13% on the day, at $52.08, up $2 week on week.

At 1:07 p.m. ET, Brent had slipped , trading at $51.97, with WTI trading at $48.90. Both benchmarks were still up on the day and the week.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Energy Stocks Soar And Oil Prices Climb

By Tom Kool - Dec 18, 2020, 1:00 PM CST

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Energy-Stocks-Soar-And-Oil-Prices-Climb.html

Optimism about COVID-19 vaccines is driving oil prices higher and energy stocks are now on course to see their largest quarterly gain since 1989

For Global Energy Alert members there are now two new free reports available in your dashboard. The first of these reports is on how to interpret stock charts and the second outlines the three biggest mistakes made by traders today. Make sure you become a member to read these reports and many more.

Friday, December 18th, 2020

Crude oil prices held their gains this week and pushed to new highs. In midday trading on Friday, Brent was over $52. Optimism on vaccinations is outpacing the bearish winds from record Covid-19 infections in the United States. Analysts differ on what happens next, but some say oil has more room on the upside.

Investors turn bullish on North American oil. Having been savaged for much of 2020, stocks for North American oil and gas producers have surged in recent weeks. The Canadian Energy Sector Index is up 40% since November 9, and U.S. energy stocks are having their best quarter since 1989.

LNG prices skyrocket. JKM prices shot up over $12/MMBtu in recent days. Energy Intel says a combination of factors is leading to the 80% rally in just three weeks. Supply disruptions in Australia, Qatar, and Norway, weather-related supply issues in the U.S., congestion at the Panama Canal, colder temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere,

Saudi cuts budget. Saudi Arabia cut its 2021 budget by 7%, as it seeks to minimize the damage from falling oil revenues. 

Hydrogen production to increase 5000% in 5 years. After decades of stagnation and multiple false dawns, the hydrogen economy appears primed for a major takeoff. Industry experts are predicting that hydrogen could become a globally traded energy source, just like oil and gas, while the Bank of America says the industry is at a tipping point and set to explode into an $11 trillion marketplace.

ExxonMobil upgraded to Buy by Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs upgraded ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) to a Buy rating with a $52 price target, up from $42. The bank sees oil demand returning and Exxon’s shares have already been beaten down. 

BP buys stake in forest carbon offsets. BP (NYSE: BP) bought a controlling stake in Finite Carbon, which helps landowners sell credits for their forests. 

Strong oil demand in Asia. The Dubai January-February spread moved into backwardation this month, due to strong demand for crude in India and China.

Banning drilling on federal lands to cost $8.1 billion. A potential ban on drilling on federal lands would cost eight western states up to $8.1 billion in tax revenue according to a study from the state of Wyoming.

Federal Reserve joins climate risk body. The U.S. Federal Reserve joined an international group of central banks – the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) – a body that uses regulatory and research clout to mitigate effects of climate change risk to the financial system.

EVs to reach price parity in three years. EVs could reach price parity with the internal combustion engine on an upfront unsubsidized basis within the next three years, according to BloombergNEF. The key threshold can be reached when the cost of battery packs falls to an average of $100 per kilowatt-hour. The cost is now at about $126. 

Lloyd’s of London to exit fossil fuels by 2030. Lloyd’s of London, the world’s largest insurance market, said it would end coverage of coal, oil sands, and Arctic energy exploration by 2022, and withdraw from the sector altogether by 2030. 

SEC approves a watered-down anti-corruption rule. The Securities and Exchange Commission approved a rule requiring oil, gas, and mining companies to disclose payments made to foreign governments, although the rule had been significantly weakened. Unlike previous iterations, the new rule allows companies to disclose aggregated data at the country level, as opposed to on a contract-by-contract basis.

7 European energy majors agree on transition principals. Seven European energy companies – BP (NYSE: BP), Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A), Eni (NYSE: E), Equinor (NYSE: EQNR), Galp (FRA: DE), and Total (NYSE: TOT) – plus Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) have agreed on six energy transition principles: support Paris Agreement, reduce emissions from operations, collaborate with stakeholders and investors, support emissions sinks and carbon capture, disclose climate risk, and report information about membership in trade associations. 

Trafigura denies bribery allegations in Brazil. Oil trader Trafigura is under fire for alleged bribery in Brazil, a case stemming from the long-running Lava Jato investigatio

Canada floats North American ban on gasoline vehicles. Canada’s Environment Minister floated potential closer ties with the U.S. on environmental issues, including aligning vehicle policies that could eventually lead to a North American phase-out of the internal combustion engine.

Biden’s energy and environment team. President-elect Joe Biden unveiled multiple cabinet and sub-cabinet picks related to energy and the environment this week. Former EPA administrator Gina McCarthy will be Biden’s domestic climate czar. North Carolina environmental regulator Michael Regan will be heading up EPA. Rep. Deb Haaland (D-NM) will be Secretary of Interior. Former Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm will lead the Department of Energy.

Oil industry needs $12.6 trillion in investment. The global oil industry needs some $12.6 trillion in investments through 2045, the secretary-general of OPEC said at a videoconference.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

On 11/29/2020 at 11:09 AM, Tom Nolan said:

This article by Irina Slav should go on this Thread

 

Many times in the comments I have talked about and cited past articles (including OilPrice.com articles) which demonstrate that the commodity markets are often a rigged game, full of corruption. -Tom Nolan

World’s Largest Oil Traders Caught In Global Corruption Scandal

By Alex Kimani - Dec 19, 2020, 6:00 PM CST

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Worlds-Largest-Oil-Traders-Caught-In-Global-Corruption-Scandal.html

Over the past two years, some of the world's largest oil traders have become the envy of many smaller traders for managing to pull some outlandish profits amid one of the worst oil crises in history. These traders, including Big Oil companies and independent traders, have been doing a rip-roaring business ostensibly by following Warren Buffett's mantra of being greedy when others are fearful and having access to esoteric resources such as giant underground storage caverns.

But, alas, it appears that some players have been gaining the upper hand on the market mainly through underhanded deals. Indeed, Vitol Group, the world's largest oil trading firm, has just agreed to pay $164 million in fines and disgorgement by the DOJ and CFTC for oil bribes in Brazil, Mexico, and Ecuador. Further, Vitol has been slapped with penalties by the CFTC for attempting to manipulate two S&P Global Platts physical oil benchmarks. 

According to DOJ documents, Vitol in fact admitted to having bribed government officials for more than a decade between 2005 and 2020. According to the DOJ, Vitol paid more than $8 million in bribes to Petrobras executives with the Brazilian oil company giving the trading house valuable information about its tenders. Nevermind the fact that Vitol has for years insisted it has zero tolerance for corruption.

The CFTC has revealed that Vitol's is the first action ever brought by the commission involving foreign corruption.

Meanwhile, Vitol's independent peers, including Trafigura AG and Glencore Plc as well as officials at Brazil's state oil firm Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) are currently being investigated for alleged bribery schemes and use of agents to win new business.

Widespread corruption

It's beginning to appear that corruption in the world of oil trading could be far more prevalent than previously thought.

Here's a rundown of recent cases of giant oil traders trying to obtain deals through unscrupulous methods.

• Brazilian prosecutors in 2018 opened a probe into alleged bribery schemes by Vitol, Trafigura, Glencore Plc, and officials at Petrobras. The latest investigation is an extension of Brazil's six-year-long Car Wash scandal. Following the damning allegations by Brazil, the DOJ launched its own probe into the three major traders.
• Glencore is facing no less than four separate investigations by the DOJ, CFTC, Switzerland's Office of the Attorney General, and The UK's Serious Fraud Office for bribery and violations in various mining jurisdictions across the globe.
• Trafigura is facing a lawsuit in Brazil seeking damages from the company and its former executives on corruption allegations involving Petrobras. The lawsuit is seeking to freeze 1 billion reais ($187.55 million) of the defendants' assets.
• Last year, Swiss federal prosecutors found Gunvor criminally liable for securing oil deals in the Republic of Congo and Ivory Coast through corrupt practices. Gunvor was ordered to pay almost 94 million Swiss francs ($94.8 million).

Cooking the books

While bribery cases appear to be on a definite uptrend in the oil trading world, oil traders are by no means strangers to an even more egregious practice: Cooking the books.

Back in April, Reuters reported that fabled Singapore oil trading firm, Hin Leong Trading (Pte) Ltd, had systematically cooked its books in a bid to hide US$800 million in futures losses over the years. A report by the Wall Street Journal was even more incriminating, finding that the said firm used "routine and pervasive" forgery to inflate its assets by more than $3 billion.

A two-month investigation by court-appointed independent administrators revealed convoluted accounting that allowed the distressed firm to overstate its assets for years. The investigators found that Hin Leong's true assets amounted to just $257 million, or a mere 7% of the $3.5 billion it had in liabilities back then, mostly to loans from banks, including HSBC Holdings PLC.

Hin Leong posted net profit of $78 million against total liabilities and equity of $4.56 billion for the period ended October 31, 2019. However, investigations revealed that the firm's total liabilities amounted to $4.05 billion, while assets were just $714 million, leaving a hole of $3.34 billion.

According to an affidavit by the founder's son, Lim Chee Meng, Hin Leong also secretly sold some of the millions of barrels of refined products that it had pledged as collateral to secure the loans. This resulted in a significant shortfall between the inventories pledged to its lenders and what it actually held, potentially resulting in huge losses for the banks. Interestingly, Deloitte & Touche LLP, the firm that audited Hin Leong's accounts for the period ending October 31, 2019, failed to flag these anomalies.

All these damning cases are a major setback for the oil and commodity trading markets, a sector that has earned a reputation for persistent malfeasance that's dogged the industry for decades.

That said, dozens of other smart trading desks like Equinor ASA (NYSE:EQNR) have been able to make billions in profits by leveraging the famous contango plays.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com