Tesla Semi

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Here is the latest video I have seen on the Tesla Semi.  I don't know about you, but to me this thing is impressive and looks to be something of a game changer when it comes to highway freight.  What do you guys think?

 

[Boat + 1,323]

 My forecast for peak oil was 2030 made 6 years ago. Musk advances on several fronts so quickly has been a surprise. Let’s drop that peak oil guess to 2027 with odds pointing to an even eariler time. Still plenty of challenges to solve though. 
The Texas and Berlin plant are under construction but by the end of 2021 we should see the pickup and semi products.

Musk just tied Gates as the 2nd richest man in the world. It seems the market recognizes the dramatic future change to transpiration along with other battery technologies. 

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

I do not think long-haul trucking will remain viable, even though the Tesla Semi will make it technically feasible. Instead, short-haul semis will work in conjunction with (mostly electrified) trains to move intermodal  containers. This is a lot more energy-efficient and is a lot easier to automate. The short-haul version of the Tesla Semi is less expensive and can haul more freight because its battery is lighter. Most short-haul trucks will need to travel more than about 250 miles round-trip, and they will recharge at their "home" location. A few "short-haul" trucks will need a 500-mile round-trip range. The very few truly long-haul truck requirements (mostly where trains are scarce) can either be 500-mile electrics using a long-distance charging infrastructure or can switch the trailer to a diesel tractor when on the long-haul portion of the route.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

2 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

I do not think long-haul trucking will remain viable, even though the Tesla Semi will make it technically feasible. SNIP... The short-haul version of the Tesla Semi is less expensive and can haul more freight because its battery is lighter.

The simple reason the long haul battery versions will all win out, regardless of manufacturer or type of vehicle; is Battery Life/Reliability.

Same reason the electric cars with the BIGGEST batteries which are driven normally last the longest period of time.  Those with small batteries whom drivers nearly drain their entire capacity, die quickly.  Battery longevity correlates nearly identically to % of battery capacity used.  If a battery is only used ~15% of its capacity, irregardless of type of battery, it will last its maximum age if it is also NOT charged to its maximum voltage(lead acid is a major exception).  Likewise irregardless of battery type, they do not like being held for a long period of time at or near its minimum voltage potential.  Lithium just has a longer overall life, but the rules of battery management still apply. 

EDIT: The exception?  If battery becomes easy to recycle/replace, but it would appear TESLA has decided to make everything impossible to work on in their cars as a matter of principle, so expect a short haul from someone else to win out in this segment unless TESLA changes their stance on maintenance. 

Edited November 29, 2020 by footeab@yahoo.com

[markslawson + 1,057]

On 11/29/2020 at 8:02 AM, Dan Warnick said:

Here is the latest video I have seen on the Tesla Semi.  I don't know about you, but to me this thing is impressive and looks to be something of a game changer when it comes to highway freight.  What do you guys think?

Okay .. the truck certainly looks slick enough and I've no doubt it has lots of safety features and it would be a good ride and all that, but there are still the major problems of payload and range. As the video notes a major problem to date has been that any battery to power a long-haul truck would be too large. There would be little room for actual freight.  The video says that an improved battery has been developed and says something to the effect the battery may make such a truck  feasible.. say what? Basically he's guessing .. I looked at some of Tesla's material on this but it didn't tell my much more. Range is either 300 or 500 miles (dunno why the difference) which I don't think is far enough for long-haul trucks. What happens if the driver turns on the air conditioning or the heating? He says the charging cable is quite different. So the buyer has to have access to at least two specially-adapted charging points. For these trucks to be used anywhere else, trucker stops would have to be persuaded to put these charging points in - and put in quite a few as they would have plenty of trucks at any one time and charging still takes a while. Couldn't see anything on payload and how that might compare with an ordinary truck. In all, the truck looks good but whether the supposed cost advantages of this truck would outweigh the problems of using them remains to be seen. Don't think trucking companies will be lining up to buy them but who knows..

[Boat + 1,323]

The batteries going into the Tesla semi will have a 620 mile range if reports are correct. Range means 1240 miles round trip. They will go into more robust production at the new Texas factory.

 

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Pre-orders are up, with a major leasing company making the latest order for 150 units plus options on 350 more.  

tesla semi orders

With my experience in both leasing and fleet maintenance, although all in aviation, it seems that the right players are making the bets on the future of these new rigs.  Leasing companies don't buy unless both the current and future markets are knocking on their doors to finance. 

From a fleet perspective, a lot of the major companies take care of their fleet's needs internally.  If they have routes that are stable and in need of expansion of volume, it would not be difficult to do the calculations which could show the Tesla Semi as a winner.  Say you've got depots that are @ 250 miles apart in markets that are stable and/or growing, a Tesla Semi would meet your needs today, and you could easily set up charging at your depots without too much fuss or muss.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

Unless the tractor is going to be used by more than one driver, the tractor will need to stop for at least ten hours after 14 hours on the road to meet the federal regulations for drivers. 14 hours at 60 mph average is 840 miles. Looks like the driver will need to break for lunch to get an additional 200 mile charge.

My guess: owner-operators will not be able to use electric semis for long-haul operations. The logistics will require systems that only a medium-to-large freight company can deploy. For example, place transfer points at appropriate intervals and swap out the tractor for a tractor with a full battery. Each tractor spends ten hours on the road emptying its battery to reach the next transfer point. It then spends 3 hours charging back up. This is still better utilization than an owner-operator gets.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

They will be great for medium haul operations.  

Long haul could be done by large trucking companies if they can make the batteries easily swappable.  Just have transfer stations where the trucks pull in and swap a dead battery for a charged one (or transfer the trailer to a fresh truck).

Private truckers will have to wait and charge but they need to sleep and eat too.

Edited November 30, 2020 by Enthalpic

[markslawson + 1,057]

3 hours ago, Boat said:

The batteries going into the Tesla semi will have a 620 mile range if reports are correct. Range means 1240 miles round trip. They will go into more robust production at the new Texas factory.

Don't think it means 1240 miles total. I think you're confusing EVs with military planes which have to get back to base. The range is always how far it gets before a recharge and the company says, in the stuff I just looked at 300-500 miles.

[markslawson + 1,057]

2 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Pre-orders are up, with a major leasing company making the latest order for 150 units plus options on 350 more.  

tesla semi orders

Actually that's not much - WalMart is working on its own green targets so from that point of view the trucks might be of some use, although it couldn't compete directly with the diesel versions. You'll also note its slated for low volume production by teh end of next year. Interesting but a niche product.. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

5 hours ago, markslawson said:

Okay .. the truck cert Range is either 300 or 500 miles

Remember, that has to be 300 or 500 miles at 80% battery capacity as warranty replaces the battery at 80% or so. 

No truck owner operator will buy a truck who can go 500 miles new, but in 3 years time only drive 400 miles.  This will simply NOT WORK. 

18 wheel trucks due to wind/friction drag alone will have ~2kWh/mile, then add more for winter(cold), summer(hot), refrigerator truck, a day of idle time sitting at delivery center, so this means the battery must be minimally around 800kWh for shorty and 1200kWh for the long range option.  Tesla own Battery packs only average about 150wH/kg and with new battery(assuming everything happens as he says) this will improve to around 180wH/kg and maybe hit 200wH/kg by 2030 or so. 

Short Range: 800kWH/180wH/kg = ~4500kg = 4.5ton

Long range ~~ 7000kg ~7 ton

Engine current trucks is ~2.5tons...

PS: Owner operators and true long haul operators use 2 drivers.  So all those strawberries from California you love.... Yea, those are delivered by 2 drivers driving 20 hours a day though usually less than 14 as logistics and sitting at delivery destinations take up gobs of time.  I know 2 husband wife teams who do this(not the strawberries constantly, but they have done strawberry express)

PPS: These trucks will be for inner city distribution and close neighbors and NOT long haul.  There are plenty of these routes as they are the vast majority.  They will doing the Portland-->Seattle ~180mi route which is done by HUNDREDS of 18 wheelers everyday.  Or the Chicago -->Indianapolis(180mi) milk run.  Or the Cincinatti/Dayton-->Indianapolis(180mi) triangle route. 

[Boat + 1,323]

The battery packs for the Tesla will built in the structure of the bed. So no swapping. This is the way their new pickup and a couple of new cars will be built. This eliminates assembly of hundreds of body parts along with less weight. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

14 minutes ago, Boat said:

The battery packs for the Tesla will built in the structure of the bed. So no swapping. This is the way their new pickup and a couple of new cars will be built. This eliminates assembly of hundreds of body parts along with less weight. 

Adding an extra swappable battery pack trailer portion should be simple.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 11/28/2020 at 3:02 PM, Dan Warnick said:

Here is the latest video I have seen on the Tesla Semi.  I don't know about you, but to me this thing is impressive and looks to be something of a game changer when it comes to highway freight.  What do you guys think?

 

Natural gas is real and now. Tesla may be the best but needs to be cost effective without subsidies. It also needs time to charge, which is a big deal for long distance trips. Maybe they can build truck stops at power plants!

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

5 hours ago, markslawson said:

Actually that's not much - WalMart is working on its own green targets so from that point of view the trucks might be of some use, although it couldn't compete directly with the diesel versions. You'll also note its slated for low volume production by teh end of next year. Interesting but a niche product.. 

..so far.  From a fleet management perspective, if the limitations of the tractors are known to be between 300-500 mile's range, and expected to grow, then allowances could be made to switch out tractors if the routes are longer.  But, as I said in my example, if the carrier has routes that are, for example 250 miles one way, then no allowances at all need to be made.  So regional hauling would be well within reach.  I knew a family friend in the trucking business and his entire model was set up on transfers within a 250 mile radius of his home base, so for that type of operation it would be viable.  Another very large trucking outfit out of Vancouver, of which I had the honor of becoming friends with the owner of, did almost all of his operations within the same sort of radius so, again, it would seem to work for his operations.

Good discussion.  Thanks guys.  Let's see where this takes us, shall we?

[Boat + 1,323]

This will be a much bigger topic in 2022. Production will be in full swing and we’ll see how well the new battery performs and in what quantity.

Edited November 30, 2020 by Boat

[markslawson + 1,057]

10 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

So regional hauling would be well within reach. 

I don't disagree.. sure. But then would buyers be happy with trucks that have that limitation? Is cost a sufficient edge? You don't have to pay out for diesel (which includes government taxes) but have to pay more for power drawn from a grid that might collapse at any moment given that heaps more electric trucks are also drawing power from it? Anyway, time to move on..  

[Rob Kramer + 696]

Question whats the cost on one of these bad boys? And whats a regular semi worth? If you need a network of trucks in a row does more tucks + drivers offset the cost of fuel (not single truck short range). And with governments like Britain and Australia implementing pay per km 2.5c  does that accelerate US using the same model. (Note that fuel use is per hp÷efficiency so if it was a flat rate it would probably be far cheaper than road fuel tax ). All in all early short range would benefit the most then slowly it will revert back to the same prices IMO. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

15 hours ago, ronwagn said:

 Maybe they can build truck stops at power plants!

A small natural gas turbine could be placed at truck stops...

The rest area pullouts in British Columbia often have free charging stations, free WiFi internet, and a washroom.

Edited December 1, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

14 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

From a fleet perspective, a lot of the major companies take care of their fleet's needs internally.  If they have routes that are stable and in need of expansion of volume, it would not be difficult to do the calculations which could show the Tesla Semi as a winner.  Say you've got depots that are @ 250 miles apart in markets that are stable and/or growing, a Tesla Semi would meet your needs today, and you could easily set up charging at your depots without too much fuss or muss.

Depending on how fast you want to charge, it can be a lot of muss or fuss. A full charge is roughly 1 MWh. If you are willing to charge 10 hours every night, that's 100 KW per truck. If you need to charge faster than that, it's proportionately more, down to (say) 500 KW for 2 hours. These are quite large numbers. I suspect that most depots will need a serious electrical heavy-up.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

31 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Depending on how fast you want to charge, it can be a lot of muss or fuss. A full charge is roughly 1 MWh. If you are willing to charge 10 hours every night, that's 100 KW per truck. If you need to charge faster than that, it's proportionately more, down to (say) 500 KW for 2 hours. These are quite large numbers. I suspect that most depots will need a serious electrical heavy-up.

Are you saying it's impractical?  I thought you were on the other side of this argument?

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

11 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Are you saying it's impractical?  I thought you were on the other side of this argument?

It's not impractical to install high-wattage electrical equipment. Industry does this all the time. However, at these wattages it's more trouble than just calling up your local electrician. This is more like an industrial installation than a commercial installation. My guess is that you bring in the high-voltage AC (4KV to 16 KV depending on your neighborhood) from the pole via an underground line and feed it directly to the inverters.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

3 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

It's not impractical to install high-wattage electrical equipment. Industry does this all the time. However, at these wattages it's more trouble than just calling up your local electrician. This is more like an industrial installation than a commercial installation. My guess is that you bring in the high-voltage AC (4KV to 16 KV depending on your neighborhood) from the pole via an underground line and feed it directly to the inverters.

So another day on the job for the people who do this every day?  80% of trucking in the U.S. is 250 miles or less.  Less maintenance for EV.  Less operating cost.  Cleaner job site with only a small amount of diesel storage necessary, if any at all.  If someone is planning to build a new depot, it would be sweet to build such a place, I would think?

[Boat + 1,323]

In China for example Tesla is building a charging station factory that will produce 10,000 such charging stations per year. In the US, whatever the demand, Musk will probably deliver.

The cost per semi is 180,000 - 200,000. Projected savings in fuel will be a 2 year payback period. If this works out it will not be niche. They will sell them as fast as they can make them.