Tesla Semi

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, Boat said:

In China for example Tesla is building a charging station factory that will produce 10,000 such charging stations per year. In the US, whatever the demand, Musk will probably deliver.

The cost per semi is 180,000 - 200,000. Projected savings in fuel will be a 2 year payback period. If this works out it will not be niche. They will sell them as fast as they can make them.

 

I think you're right.  80% of trucking in the U.S. is 250 miles or less.  For fleet management, it doesn't get much better than this.  For a leasing company, it's almost a no-brainer.  You get reliability clauses from the OEMs with built-in penalties.  You have utilization scales with fixed payments for maintenance, or battery change-outs, down the road when those utilization payments can be withdrawn back out.  Sign on as many 3-4 year leases as you can get.  Finance whole fleet change-outs.  Hell, finance the upgrade to the wiring/power supply.  Finance and lease back whole new depots.  Finance a tow truck or two at each depot to go get the odd dead truck (every depot has these for their diesels or contracts a company or two to go get them).

Finally, for private operators, they can sign on to piggy back charger access leases so they can pull into depots across the country to recharge and park the rigs when not in use.  Smaller airlines do agreements like this all the time.

If I could buy into a leasing investment fund like the above, I would do it today.  Sweet investment deals like this one don't come along every day.

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

On 11/29/2020 at 8:12 PM, Dan Clemmensen said:

I do not think long-haul trucking will remain viable, even though the Tesla Semi will make it technically feasible. Instead, short-haul semis will work in conjunction with (mostly electrified) trains to move intermodal  containers. This is a lot more energy-efficient and is a lot easier to automate.

 

6 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

So another day on the job for the people who do this every day?  80% of trucking in the U.S. is 250 miles or less.  Less maintenance for EV.  Less operating cost.

Oil demand destruction in action.

Edited December 1, 2020 by Rasmus Jorgensen

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

3 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

 

Oil demand destruction in action.

That may be, but I just see this as a product that improves a messy business and cuts costs in the process.  IF the trucks are as good as they say, and I have no reason to believe they are not, then it's a win/win for all.

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

10 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

That may be, but I just see this as a product that improves a messy business and cuts costs in the process.  IF the trucks are as good as they say, and I have no reason to believe they are not, then it's a win/win for all.

I agree 100%; win/win. 

 

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 11/29/2020 at 9:22 PM, Boat said:

 My forecast for peak oil was 2030 made 6 years ago. Musk advances on several fronts so quickly has been a surprise. Let’s drop that peak oil guess to 2027 with odds pointing to an even eariler time. Still plenty of challenges to solve though. 
The Texas and Berlin plant are under construction but by the end of 2021 we should see the pickup and semi products.

Musk just tied Gates as the 2nd richest man in the world. It seems the market recognizes the dramatic future change to transpiration along with other battery technologies. 

Try 2019, as I have been trying to tell everyone on this site for the last 6 months:

Peak Oil Is Suddenly Upon Us (bloomberg.com)

[Hiten Shah + 22]

7 minutes ago, Wombat said:

Try 2019, as I have been trying to tell everyone on this site for the last 6 months:

Peak Oil Is Suddenly Upon Us (bloomberg.com)

I already said this during Lockdown in April May.

Only point they missed is the advent of 5G, Business travel even Shopping Travel will reduce. Even Supply chain will become more efficient with technology. Reduction of stock every where from clothing to real estate. That will further reduce Transport of goods and long distance transport requirement. Reduced use of Coal to power stations, Petrol Diesel Natural Gas etc to Pumps will further reduce overall demand for transportation.

If Hydrogen is produced at location like Airports  Ports and Fuel stations will further reduce Transportation needs.

 

 

 

 

 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

9 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

That may be, but I just see this as a product that improves a messy business and cuts costs in the process.  IF the trucks are as good as they say, and I have no reason to believe they are not, then it's a win/win for all.

If the load class limits can be increased by say ~1 or 2 tons per class, then electric for sure will dominate in VERY short order.  I highly doubt the government bureaucrats are this smart though...

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

53 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

If the load class limits can be increased by say ~1 or 2 tons per class, then electric for sure will dominate in VERY short order.  I highly doubt the government bureaucrats are this smart though...

I don't know how load limits work, but I thought that many bridges, etc. were designed for certain max loads, and standard trailers and containers are built to certain load specs. If so, then these increases would be difficult. Some states permit tandem trailers, and this might have the same effect.

 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

1 hour ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

I don't know how load limits work, but I thought that many bridges, etc. were designed for certain max loads, and standard trailers and containers are built to certain load specs. If so, then these increases would be difficult. Some states permit tandem trailers, and this might have the same effect.

 

There are MANY different classes of trucks, not just 80k 18 wheelers.  To save on infrastructure for each class, so no redesign is required, just increase tonnage by 1 ton for the extra battery weight.  18 wheeler trucks are limited to 80,000lbs Gross.  The 80k limit will still apply to the long haul guys, but everyone else will be fine. Of course just by cutting off the extended cab and going with aluminum would save a couple tons and since the batteries are not able to do long distance trucking currently anyways....

2 trailers the limit is defined by the axle limit.  Generally they have either 2 or 3 axles 1 front 2 rear or 1 front 1 rear.  Tandem axle limits are set in each state.  Minimum is 40,000lbs so... this is the real limit as tandem trailers take up more length of road so if a bridge is packed with 100% max loaded 18wheelers/tandem trailers the load will actually be the same.  Old memory says the 2nd trailer max allowed is 34,000lbs.  Anyone else know?  Maybe it is still 80k max, I forget.  sorry

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 12/1/2020 at 2:00 AM, Dan Warnick said:

I think you're right.  80% of trucking in the U.S. is 250 miles or less.  For fleet management, it doesn't get much better than this.  For a leasing company, it's almost a no-brainer.  You get reliability clauses from the OEMs with built-in penalties.  You have utilization scales with fixed payments for maintenance, or battery change-outs, down the road when those utilization payments can be withdrawn back out.  Sign on as many 3-4 year leases as you can get.  Finance whole fleet change-outs.  Hell, finance the upgrade to the wiring/power supply.  Finance and lease back whole new depots.  Finance a tow truck or two at each depot to go get the odd dead truck (every depot has these for their diesels or contracts a company or two to go get them).

Finally, for private operators, they can sign on to piggy back charger access leases so they can pull into depots across the country to recharge and park the rigs when not in use.  Smaller airlines do agreements like this all the time.

If I could buy into a leasing investment fund like the above, I would do it today.  Sweet investment deals like this one don't come along every day.

Boat, where did you get your price estimate for the Tesla semis? 

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

On 11/29/2020 at 9:19 PM, Enthalpic said:

They will be great for medium haul operations.  

Long haul could be done by large trucking companies if they can make the batteries easily swappable.  Just have transfer stations where the trucks pull in and swap a dead battery for a charged one (or transfer the trailer to a fresh truck).

Private truckers will have to wait and charge but they need to sleep and eat too.

It is trivially easy to "swap batteries": You simply swap tractors. The same trailer moves in and out of the depot in less time than it takes to refill a diesel tractor's tanks. The used-up tractor spends 3 hours or less being recharged after maybe ten hours on the road, so its usage efficiency is higher than the usage efficiency of the tractor of an owner-operator (14/24, by law). Of course tractor swapping only works for fleets, not for owner-operators.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

Boat, where did you get your price estimate for the Tesla semis? 

It's in the promo videos.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

It is trivially easy to "swap batteries": You simply swap tractors. The same trailer moves in and out of the depot in less time than it takes to refill a diesel tractor's tanks. The used-up tractor spends 3 hours or less being recharged after maybe ten hours on the road, so its usage efficiency is higher than the usage efficiency of the tractor of an owner-operator (14/24, by law). Of course tractor swapping only works for fleets, not for owner-operators.

But work, it does.

[Boat + 1,323]

80% of hauls within 250 miles is a telling stat. So a round trip of 500 miles has apparently been achieved with batteries in a semi. 
I read also that battery density and the number of cycles a battery can be charged is close to yet another advancement. 
Who would have thought the lowly battery may end up being the catalyst for major change in the world of energy.

[Boat + 1,323]

So battery improvements may solve the intermittent problems for grids. They may lower the waste of capacity vrs consumption on electrical grids. Then of course transportation and renewables will become more viable at a higher percentage on the grid. Homes will not need generators if you have a big battery or two during and after Mother Nature has her way.

If autonomy happens well be talking about the size and cycle life of our battery rather than our cars. 
 

It’s gonna be a slightly different world.

[Boat + 1,323]

This isn’t earth shattering but significant. Google the advance from Telse battery 2170 to the new 4680. This is the new battery going to be produced in the new Tesla factories.

[Rob Kramer + 696]

Just saw Volvo has a 600km Tractor trailer they say will be ready in 2021. ... Tesla won't own the market with real competition .  Musk has sold alot of shares so tesla has the cash but I think his "profits" are going to come to a screeching halt. Seems EV is taking off as demanded. So as I keep saying soon the incentive  ends and per km tax will arrive. Then I can put down the torch lol. I'd still think short haul EV is cheaper than diesel without help and with per km tax.

Edited December 4, 2020 by Rob Kramer

[Boat + 1,323]

Even when electric vehicles are the cheapest, cleanest and lowest maintenance the actual market is huge. It will still take decades to replace FF transportation. 
One hurdle is the cost for the 50% of the population that makes $30,000 or less. 
It’s one thing to make 20-30 million electric cars in 20 years but quite another to make 90+ million per year.

It seems to me they can build and sell electric vehicals as fast as they can make them for a long long time. But can used electric cars get down to $10,000 and open up the rest of the market?

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

12 minutes ago, Boat said:

Even when electric vehicles are the cheapest, cleanest and lowest maintenance the actual market is huge. It will still take decades to replace FF transportation. 
One hurdle is the cost for the 50% of the population that makes $30,000 or less. 
It’s one thing to make 20-30 million electric cars in 20 years but quite another to make 90+ million per year.

It seems to me they can build and sell electric vehicals as fast as they can make them for a long long time. But can used electric cars get down to $10,000 and open up the rest of the market?

The markets will decide.  Of this there is no doubt.  You state obvious facts, but facts that need to be stated nonetheless, since our gung-ho "EV must replace ICE in ten years" crowd cannot wrap their heads around simple market forces.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

17 hours ago, Boat said:

Even when electric vehicles are the cheapest, cleanest and lowest maintenance the actual market is huge. It will still take decades to replace FF transportation. 
One hurdle is the cost for the 50% of the population that makes $30,000 or less. 
It’s one thing to make 20-30 million electric cars in 20 years but quite another to make 90+ million per year.

It seems to me they can build and sell electric vehicals as fast as they can make them for a long long time. But can used electric cars get down to $10,000 and open up the rest of the market?

I'm not sure about "decades". Equipment is replaced either when it wears out, or when it is cheaper to replace it than it is to run it. For cars, This works out to about 15 years on average. Maybe 20 years for a semi (this is a wild guess. Does anyone have a good number?) Early adopters running large fleets may replace a tractor when it is fully depreciated instead, but the old tractor will still be on the used market at a price that is low enough that someone will buy it and keep running, and this keeps happening at lower and lower prices until the poor thing finally dies. So call it 20 years. The last diesel tractor will leave the road 20 years after the first cost-effective EV tractor is sold, or sooner if it it becomes illegal everywhere. Used tractors that become illegal in California will be sold where they are still legal.  I think that the old tractors may become completely uneconomic earlier that that as the support infrastructure for diesel is shut down.

Edited December 5, 2020 by Dan Clemmensen
sp

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

2 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

I'm not sure about "decades". Equipment is replaced either when it wears out, or when it is cheaper to replace it than it is to run it. For cars, This works out to about 15 years on average. Maybe 20 years for a semi (this is a wild guess. Does anyone have a good number?)

I have a couple numbers: My uncle has been a truck driver his entire life and my other uncle has been a truck mechanic his entire life.  For long haul, he has never driven a truck younger than 15 years old.   Sole exception? Worked for the Postal Service and then their stuff was still over 10 years old on average so, that would align with 15-->20 year replacement even for the USPS.  Oddly their trailers were often younger.  Other uncle, mechanic, works on fleets of Freightliner trucks, and I have not spoken to him about age and this is the number you would MOST likely want would be my guess.  I could call him up, but... 😃  I would expect average age to be around the 10 year mark.

Here is the other number of guys I know, neighbors, and when younger worked in the industry(construction/farming). I have a good number, no construction company, farmer, logger has any trucking equipment younger than 20 years... In fact older equipment averaging 30 or even over 40 years old is not uncommon.  The equipment hauled is often younger though, but if intermittently used, can be REALLY old.  To compensate they just buy extra old equipment so if one breaks you have a backup.  Need 2 trucks on average?  You have 3 or 4 trucks owned at least.  And for surges during summer construction/farming season.  All of your intermittent trucking has VERY old equipment and this is literally 10's of millions of trucks around the world.  Someone who cares for reliablility as the penalties for late delivery outweigh the low costs of old equipment ownership where everything is paid off long since and the invested capital is lowest will be forced to buy newer. 

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

3 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

I have a couple numbers: My uncle has been a truck driver his entire life and my other uncle has been a truck mechanic his entire life.  For long haul, he has never driven a truck younger than 15 years old.   Sole exception? Worked for the Postal Service and then their stuff was still over 10 years old on average so, that would align with 15-->20 year replacement even for the USPS.  Oddly their trailers were often younger.  Other uncle, mechanic, works on fleets of Freightliner trucks, and I have not spoken to him about age and this is the number you would MOST likely want would be my guess.  I could call him up, but... 😃  I would expect average age to be around the 10 year mark.

Here is the other number of guys I know, neighbors, and when younger worked in the industry(construction/farming). I have a good number, no construction company, farmer, logger has any trucking equipment younger than 20 years... In fact older equipment averaging 30 or even over 40 years old is not uncommon.  The equipment hauled is often younger though, but if intermittently used, can be REALLY old.  To compensate they just buy extra old equipment so if one breaks you have a backup.  Need 2 trucks on average?  You have 3 or 4 trucks owned at least.  And for surges during summer construction/farming season.  All of your intermittent trucking has VERY old equipment and this is literally 10's of millions of trucks around the world.  Someone who cares for reliablility as the penalties for late delivery outweigh the low costs of old equipment ownership where everything is paid off long since and the invested capital is lowest will be forced to buy newer. 

Thanks! It looks like we should expect a "long tail" of older diesel semi-tractors. This matches the even longer tail of diesel farm gear (mostly farm tractors). My guess is that either the government will finally buy out the oldest gear (like the cash-for-clunkers program of 2009) or diesel fuel will be phased out and finally be made illegal, or both. So: AS AN EXAMPLE ONLY: 2025: last diesel semi-tractor is produced. 2045: most are retired. 2050: government buy-outs. 2055: diesel is outlawed.

[Rob Kramer + 696]

4 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Thanks! It looks like we should expect a "long tail" of older diesel semi-tractors. This matches the even longer tail of diesel farm gear (mostly farm tractors). My guess is that either the government will finally buy out the oldest gear (like the cash-for-clunkers program of 2009) or diesel fuel will be phased out and finally be made illegal, or both. So: AS AN EXAMPLE ONLY: 2025: last diesel semi-tractor is produced. 2045: most are retired. 2050: government buy-outs. 2055: diesel is outlawed.

My uncle does long haul and has always owned his own rig. His current one is pre hr log / digital so 80s? Engine just got rebuilt or a new one for like 40k w/ million mile warranty from cat. My dad was telling me : my uncles boss is told who can drive for him via insurance company.  So I wonder if this will play a roll down the line also. I know for small cars the dealership model won't work . Its based of repairs and volume so used makes more than new. Also techs make less on the hybrids so EV will be even less (hrs available and worse jobs vs ICE) so it will be interesting.  I bet trucks have a better dealer model for EV less maintenance and higher up front  so its more typical business compared to small cars where new base models have almost no profits.  

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

16 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said:

My uncle does long haul and has always owned his own rig. His current one is pre hr log / digital so 80s? Engine just got rebuilt or a new one for like 40k w/ million mile warranty from cat. My dad was telling me : my uncles boss is told who can drive for him via insurance company.  So I wonder if this will play a roll down the line also. I know for small cars the dealership model won't work . Its based of repairs and volume so used makes more than new. Also techs make less on the hybrids so EV will be even less (hrs available and worse jobs vs ICE) so it will be interesting.  I bet trucks have a better dealer model for EV less maintenance and higher up front  so its more typical business compared to small cars where new base models have almost no profits.  

It's very early days for EV semis. So far, all reported pre-orders appear to be fleet sales, not sales to owner-operators. Fleet sales do not appear to go through dealerships. I would guess (based on nothing whatsoever) that Tesla and other manufacturers will be able to sell all they can make for several years as fleet sales, so owner-operators won't see them until they hit the used market. But unless the batteries can be replaced (like your uncle's engine rebuild) this will be an "interesting" market.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

42 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

won't see them until they hit the used market. But unless the batteries can be replaced (like your uncle's engine rebuild) this will be an "interesting" market.

No owner operator will buy used TESLA semi's as they will have no way of charging them.  They will not be able to get the higher rated power to their place of business and the few who can will not be able to afford it.  They can pretend to ban diesel all they want, it won't happen.  All the equipment etc all runs on diesel.  They may dictatorially demand biodiesel, but diesel they will still use with government juice of course(DEF).