Tesla Semi

[Boat + 1,323]

Unless autonomous driving becomes standard and individual drivers get pushed out. Now saying when for sure but that is the buzz. Curious what semi producers want. Support individual semi owners with charging areas so they can compete with fleets? 

Edited December 6, 2020 by Boat

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

https://willrobotstakemyjob.com/

79% likely for truckers.

 

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

No owner operator will buy used TESLA semi's as they will have no way of charging them.  They will not be able to get the higher rated power to their place of business and the few who can will not be able to afford it.  They can pretend to ban diesel all they want, it won't happen.  All the equipment etc all runs on diesel.  They may dictatorially demand biodiesel, but diesel they will still use with government juice of course(DEF).

There will be no need to buy/sell used Tesla semis on any scale, although there will always be a market for some.  Charging points should not be a problem over the next 10+ years, and like I pointed out before, small independent operators can piggy back lease charging access from bigger depots/companies where it is convenient. 

For the used rigs, just part them out taking only what's still of value, buy/sell/trade on the aftermarket, and scrap the rest.  Of course there will be plenty of options for financing, purchase/lease, lease/purchase, outright, etc.  The trailers, if they are at the end of their usable life, are throw-away items with very little usable aftermarket value and will for the most part be sold for scrap in their entirety.  Also trailers, at least for some years to come, will probably be the same no matter what tractor you are using, so if someone has a good one, or a fleet operator wants to upgrade, there will be a market for the well maintained ones.  Again, the rest you sell for scrap.

If the economics work the trucks will sell.  Fleet or independent, they are in it for the money, so if it works on the numbers they will sell.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

9 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

No owner operator will buy used TESLA semi's as they will have no way of charging them.  They will not be able to get the higher rated power to their place of business and the few who can will not be able to afford it.  They can pretend to ban diesel all they want, it won't happen.  All the equipment etc all runs on diesel.  They may dictatorially demand biodiesel, but diesel they will still use with government juice of course(DEF).

I think long-haul owner-operators will be out of business completely, sadly, but not because of charging. Today, fleets have their own diesel filling stations at the depots, but owner-operators use truck stops. The same would apply for EVs. For short haul charging at "home" overnight, you would need perhaps 250 kWh per night, which is 25 kW for ten hours. That's not out of reach for a garage in a commercial or light industrial location, and I don't think most semis are parked in residential areas overnight, so to a first approximation, if a semi has a "home" parking place, that place can be served by a charger.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

8 hours ago, Boat said:

Unless autonomous driving becomes standard and individual drivers get pushed out. Now saying when for sure but that is the buzz. Curious what semi producers want. Support individual semi owners with charging areas so they can compete with fleets? 

I can see the long-haul portion of a route being automated, but not the "first mile/last mile". Truckers do a lot more than just drive. They typically also do a lot of stuff about loading and unloading and paperwork. By the time that is all factored in at both ends, it's unclear that automating the middle of a short-haul drive makes any sense. My model would be that long-haul becomes divided onto two short-hauls at the endpoints plus a true long-haul segment, which will be by train where possible and by automated trucking elsewhere.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

2 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

I think long-haul owner-operators will be out of business completely, sadly, but not because of charging. Today, fleets have their own diesel filling stations at the depots, but owner-operators use truck stops. The same would apply for EVs. For short haul charging at "home" overnight, you would need perhaps 250 kWh per night, which is 25 kW for ten hours. That's not out of reach for a garage in a commercial or light industrial location, and I don't think most semis are parked in residential areas overnight, so to a first approximation, if a semi has a "home" parking place, that place can be served by a charger.

Your thinking is absurdly narrow and it would appear never read what I wrote.  Ahem, lets try again... No construction, truck operators live in a city.  Land is too expensive.  Likewise no truck stop or large mechanics shop is in a city.  Once again: Land is too expensive.  Big trucks and equipment = big land needs compared to a house.  They own more than one truck, in fact usually 2 or more.  A power system; design to maximums, not minimums or averages.  It is how everything in this world is designed for ... shall we say OBVIOUS reasons.  To drive to "work" is often over 100miles one way and often more. Sure, most is more localized, but longer distance on the far side of a city or next city is not uncommon at all in fact, "going to work" when I was in the construction industry often was at least 60+miles one way.  At 2kWh/mile for heavy trucks(no hills) that is 250kWh--> 500kWh on normal/short haul day.  Now last I checked, if you go to a jobsite, you need more than a single piece of equipment and you will show up with a dump truck or 2 or three with different trailers.  One hauling trackhoe, another hauling a grader and a 3rd hauling a roller.  Or 2 trackhoes/backhoes, etc. 

Now remember, diesel was just banned, so all that heavy equipment needs to electrified as well, but here the rubber really meets the road as heavy equipment is left at the jobsite, unless a single day job, and since when does any such job end in a single day?  Very few that I can remember and judging by how often I see heavy machinery in my neighbors yard even though he owns 5 trackhoes, 2 backhoes, etc etc, I have only seen all of his heavy equipment in his yard in the dead of winter when no work is happening.  So, charging in the field... Good F'n luck on that one!  Or another truck/trailer dedicated to ONLY giant batteries... Ok, another gargantuan load is now required... And it takes an hour to load heavy equipment per piece of equipment as you have to clean them otherwise if a cop sees a single spec of rock/dirt on tracks and you are on the road(especially highway, can get away with some dirt on slow roads); you get a $5000 ticket and if you get more than 3 a year, I believe your license gets suspended.  I forget what the max is now.  Anyone know?  Bet it depends on which state so... it is probably all over the place. 

Our energy needs in reality are not 250kWh over 10 hours... as you postulated which is still 50 amps dedicated once you get charger inefficiencies factored in.  Rather it is 500kWh per vehicle(2 often 3 or more) + heavy equipment(2 or more) and it is even worse for farmers during planting/harvest who will be operating trucks, combines, tractors all at the same time for 12 hours or more a day.  We are talking hundreds of amps required of CONSTANT power draw for 10 hours and this is simply not possible with everyone's electrical infrastructure. And uh, no those combines/tractors are not driving home at an average of $100/hour, they stay in the field. 

Now it is possible to beef up said infrastructure, but remember, design to maximums not averages, but here again, rubber meets road as rural areas often = FARMING areas and now everything just became electrified and their peak usage is at the SAME TIME which now jumps electrical peak consumption way way way way past design specs on the grid, and local distribution which used to have a couple houses/farm shops on it pulling a couple amps and now it is hundreds of amps for 10 hours and heavy help you if you want to charge faster and say plant everything in 24 hours as it was raining for the last month and zero planting has occurred and you are behind so now your equipment is not running for 12 + hours a day but rather 20+ hours a day going to 24 hours a day as correct planting matters more to a farmer than any other aspect of farming as this determines potential crop yield.  Incorrect planting can change 300-->500 bushels of corn potential to 200 real quick... and every neighbor is doing the same thing because they aren't stupid enough to plant when it is pissing rain and pissing all their expensive fertilizer/seed down the drain destroying rivers with algae blooms.  

Ok, enough of my pontificating... At minimum diesel is going absolutely nowhere.  Not to mention the millions upon millions of pieces of equipment you have to replace which would be insane to electrify/replace as it is perfectly good.... Unless you are on a religious crusade of course, and then reality does not matter... which is exactly what these people are on. 

PS: No you are not going to be charging at a truck stop for an hour while paying your entire crew $50/hour or more. 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

8 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

I think long-haul owner-operators will be out of business completely, sadly, but not because of charging. Today, fleets have their own diesel filling stations at the depots, but owner-operators use truck stops. The same would apply for EVs. For short haul charging at "home" overnight, you would need perhaps 250 kWh per night, which is 25 kW for ten hours. That's not out of reach for a garage in a commercial or light industrial location, and I don't think most semis are parked in residential areas overnight, so to a first approximation, if a semi has a "home" parking place, that place can be served by a charger.

Just a comment.  Too few drivers for long haul making it a well paid job. And for them to go out of business completely they'd have to make no income. Now if their fuel diesel is largely unused because everyone went E-semi then fuel costs would drop or be low. So your talking a currently profitable business with falling expenses being unprofitable.  So for that to happen the E semi fleets have to wage a price war (after spending on new e rigs) only to drop prices and remove the extra margin of profit they were chasing. So I'd have to disagree. And again these new ES owners would want the cash from the old rig so used market would exist. Only government taxation would kill the diesel truck and that would raise consumer goods costs as it would be a wide attack on shipping . And un electrified diesel use markets. So probably unlikely. 

[Boat + 1,323]

I will go look for the information/or not but I thought the new charging stations for the Tesla semi could charge the first 400 miles worth of battery in 30 min. I have a couple of Tesla feeds from YouTube that feed opinion and fact in a fast changing electric market. I tend not to waste to much time on details because  factories for some of these products are being built. Like the battery Musk says can be upgraded to 620 mile. It ain’t happened yet. But for a discussion of midterm future something like that is at least noteworthy. 

Edited December 7, 2020 by Boat

[Boat + 1,323]

13 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

I can see the long-haul portion of a route being automated, but not the "first mile/last mile". Truckers do a lot more than just drive. They typically also do a lot of stuff about loading and unloading and paperwork. By the time that is all factored in at both ends, it's unclear that automating the middle of a short-haul drive makes any sense. My model would be that long-haul becomes divided onto two short-hauls at the endpoints plus a true long-haul segment, which will be by train where possible and by automated trucking elsewhere.

Drivers that provide value besides driving may indeed keep their jobs. The large plastic pipe industry for example has drivers that strap the load and then tarp it. They stop a couple times in the first 50 miles to check for shifting loads and strap loosening. These drivers can be libel for damage to the load and smoke damage. They sign a document saying their happy with how the pipe was loaded and do not leave the yard without being tarped. Both the yard manager and driver sign a document and take several pictures to verify both parties are happy. Old fat guys can spend a couple hrs prepping a load. Athletic young men can do it in 45 min. Lol

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

24 minutes ago, Boat said:

I will go look for the information/or not but I thought the new charging stations for the Tesla semi could charge the first 400 miles worth of battery in 30 min. I have a couple of Tesla feeds from YouTube that feed opinion and fact in a fast changing electric market. I tend not to waste to much time on details because  factories for some of these products are being built. Like the battery Musk says can be upgraded to 620 mile. It ain’t happened yet. But for a discussion of midterm future something like that is at least noteworthy. 

That will be true, but those charging stations are providing maybe 1 MWh in .5  hr, so that's 2 MW.  That station needs more power than is available in a residential or even commercial neighborhood. It should be available in an industrial area. By comparison, I charge my Model Y at home at rate of 6 KW, using a 30 Amp 240VAC circuit. (roughly 25 mi/hr) so it would take me 12 hours  for a 300 mi charge.

[MarineTech + 3]

What about road use taxes? A significant amount of tax is charged on fuel for highway use, the states use this tax to maintain it's roads and highways. If/when these become a significant there will be a significant tax placed on them to replace the loss of tax on fuel. Either that or another government subsidy to once again support them. This should be factored in while comparing cost. Current fuel tax is 20-50 cents per gallon depending on state, this has to be replaced when using EVs. Don't take this wrong EVs are coming as I support alternative fuels, but as of now none of them can support themselves on their own economics, when they can, they will become mainstream.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

20 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Your thinking is absurdly narrow and it would appear never read what I wrote.  Ahem, lets try again... No construction, truck operators live in a city. 

Why keep reading after that absurd statement?

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

4 hours ago, MarineTech said:

What about road use taxes? A significant amount of tax is charged on fuel for highway use, the states use this tax to maintain it's roads and highways. If/when these become a significant there will be a significant tax placed on them to replace the loss of tax on fuel. Either that or another government subsidy to once again support them. This should be factored in while comparing cost. Current fuel tax is 20-50 cents per gallon depending on state, this has to be replaced when using EVs. Don't take this wrong EVs are coming as I support alternative fuels, but as of now none of them can support themselves on their own economics, when they can, they will become mainstream.

Road tax needs to be shifted from fuel to actual measured road usage, which will be some function of mileage and vehicle weight (and possibly tire pressure). Trucks now (mostly) have digital logs. Modern cars are internet-connected and can/could log mileage. Vehicles without logs would be taxed based on (high) estimates for usage: high enough to encourage addition of aftermarket loggers. Cheaters would be caught by automated spot checking.   This scheme also lets each state charge for the miles driven in that state.

Fuel would continue to be taxed (at a low but increasing rate), but as a carbon penalty, not as a proxy for road usage. 

In many states, the ICE industry (mostly the dealers) have successfully lobbied to tax EVs at a fixed per-year rate, ostensibly to offset the loss of fuel taxes, but this  ignores the loss of fuel taxes caused by higher-efficiency ICE engines, and it taxes a 2000 mi/yr vehicle the same amount as a 100,000 mi/yr vehicle. In California the rate is $175/year (or less for cheaper EVs).

https://electrek.co/2020/07/10/california-starts-charging-ev-registration-fees-up-to-175-in-july/

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

22 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Your thinking is absurdly narrow and it would appear never read what I wrote.  Ahem, lets try again... No construction, truck operators live in a city.

[...snip pontification]

Ok, enough of my pontificating... At minimum diesel is going absolutely nowhere.  Not to mention the millions upon millions of pieces of equipment you have to replace which would be insane to electrify/replace as it is perfectly good.... Unless you are on a religious crusade of course, and then reality does not matter... which is exactly what these people are on. 

PS: No you are not going to be charging at a truck stop for an hour while paying your entire crew $50/hour or more. 

My post was in fact "narrow". This thread is about EV semis, and my post was about long-haul semi operation. Your long post was almost exclusively about moving and operating construction equipment.  I agree that construction equipment (and also farming equipment) will be harder to electrify than semis, for the reasons you stated. I'm not so sure about the short-haul semi that hauls the low-boy carrying the construction equipment, but that will vary based on circumstances.

As to whether or not diesel is going "nowhere": this depends on the percentage of diesel that is used on-road versus off-road.

[Ulysses + 21]

If fuel savings alone justify the trucks, imagine the cost savings from not having a truck driver. This is the future and the sooner we all realize it, the better, for our investment decisions.

[Rob Kramer + 696]

2 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Road tax needs to be shifted from fuel to actual measured road usage, which will be some function of mileage and vehicle weight (and possibly tire pressure). Trucks now (mostly) have digital logs. Modern cars are internet-connected and can/could log mileage. Vehicles without logs would be taxed based on (high) estimates for usage: high enough to encourage addition of aftermarket loggers. Cheaters would be caught by automated spot checking.   This scheme also lets each state charge for the miles driven in that state.

Fuel would continue to be taxed (at a low but increasing rate), but as a carbon penalty, not as a proxy for road usage. 

In many states, the ICE industry (mostly the dealers) have successfully lobbied to tax EVs at a fixed per-year rate, ostensibly to offset the loss of fuel taxes, but this  ignores the loss of fuel taxes caused by higher-efficiency ICE engines, and it taxes a 2000 mi/yr vehicle the same amount as a 100,000 mi/yr vehicle. In California the rate is $175/year (or less for cheaper EVs).

https://electrek.co/2020/07/10/california-starts-charging-ev-registration-fees-up-to-175-in-july/

I saw a few articles on this on EV cars its easier because they use very close kwh/km. So in Australia I think plug in hybrid was 2c/km and 2.5c/km per full EV. In Canada the average for total tax is 5c/km for light passenger cars but excluding carbon tax on fuel its closer to 4.5c/km.  But if a large EV is 20kwh per 100km vs a small one at 16kwh/100 over 4c is 1c difference so really not a big deal to average. Mabey they'll just double it for Heavy Vehicles/commercial .. 10c/km could offset a 1c from passenger cars making EV look cheaper. On a diesel truck going 500km/d is 500x10c so 50$ pretty cheap thats equivalent of like 120$ of fuel 43%tax ish. So 70$ of electricity or less to break even without repairs factored in. At 14c kwh for solid rate in Ontario as they wouldnt want variable rates thats like 70.00÷.30c (including delivery?) = 233kwh ... mabey delivery is way less with bulk delivery ? 20c ? I don't know.

[Bob D + 562]

2 hours ago, Ulysses said:

If fuel savings alone justify the trucks, imagine the cost savings from not having a truck driver. This is the future and the sooner we all realize it, the better, for our investment decisions.

It's UTOPIA.  These trucks can bring want ads and government cheese to the unemployed truck drivers.

[Rob Kramer + 696]

8 minutes ago, Bob D said:

It's UTOPIA.  These trucks can bring want ads and government cheese to the unemployed truck drivers.

Why would the companies sell them? If you could build and program your own fleet of self driving trucks . Normally the company sells them because they need drivers for them 😆 

Edit: tesla could build finance via stocks insure and program driverless trucks 🚚... why have competition and sell them for a few k profit if they can make 100k profit over its lifetime ? Repair and replacement would be in house too. 1 owner to make all the money . Then tesla is 1T$ lol

Edited December 7, 2020 by Rob Kramer

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

4 hours ago, Ulysses said:

If fuel savings alone justify the trucks, imagine the cost savings from not having a truck driver. This is the future and the sooner we all realize it, the better, for our investment decisions.

Well no, if that was true, then automated rails would have been in vogue a LONG time ago,  Could have been done over 50 years ago.  But cost of all the associated infrastructure and failure scenario makes it utterly impractical.  Same is true of automated trucking. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

4 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

My post was in fact "narrow". This thread is about EV semis, and my post was about long-haul semi operation. Your long post was almost exclusively about moving and operating construction equipment.  I agree that construction equipment (and also farming equipment) will be harder to electrify than semis, for the reasons you stated. I'm not so sure about the short-haul semi that hauls the low-boy carrying the construction equipment, but that will vary based on circumstances.

As to whether or not diesel is going "nowhere": this depends on the percentage of diesel that is used on-road versus off-road.

Well no, I just brought up construction/farming as an example.  The guys who run short haul trucking face the exact same problem, I just did not go into the nitty gritty.

Of course the "cheapness" of electrical transportation will vanish as soon as Government sees their tax revenues falling for road maintenance and truth is, roads do not magically appear, and neither does their maintenance. 

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

39 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Well no, if that was true, then automated rails would have been in vogue a LONG time ago,  Could have been done over 50 years ago.  But cost of all the associated infrastructure and failure scenario makes it utterly impractical.  Same is true of automated trucking. 

Railroads are highly automated and have been so for a very long time. "Automation" used to mean the replacement of humans by machinery, not necessarily the complete replacement.  The number of man hours per ton-mile is much, much lower for rail than it is for long-haul trucks, so the cost of labor is a much smaller percentage of the total cost for moving goods by train, and the relative advantage of further automation is small. A 200-car train (400 trailers or  800 containers?) has a two-man crew.

Personally, I think replacing the long-haul segment of a truck run with integrated intermodal transport (short-haul trucks transferring containers or entire trailers to trains) is more cost-effective, and at least one major trucking company, J.B. Hunt,  is making a big new push in this direction. No need for driverless trucks on any route that a train can serve.  Intermodal works particularly well where the stuff is already in a container, as is the case for containership cargos. In California, a large percentage of the semis in our most polluted areas are going to and from the ports. For me personally, local pollution (all of Los Angeles and all of the Bay area) is more of an issue than global warming.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

On 12/6/2020 at 10:56 PM, Dan Clemmensen said:

I can see the long-haul portion of a route being automated, but not the "first mile/last mile". Truckers do a lot more than just drive. They typically also do a lot of stuff about loading and unloading and paperwork. By the time that is all factored in at both ends, it's unclear that automating the middle of a short-haul drive makes any sense. My model would be that long-haul becomes divided onto two short-hauls at the endpoints plus a true long-haul segment, which will be by train where possible and by automated trucking elsewhere.

Wow, I thought we were much further along, pun intended, with automation, etc.  Not according to this Forbes article:

Will Truck Convoying Be The First Viable Commercial Application For AV Technology ?

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

On 12/7/2020 at 12:49 PM, Boat said:

Drivers that provide value besides driving may indeed keep their jobs. The large plastic pipe industry for example has drivers that strap the load and then tarp it. They stop a couple times in the first 50 miles to check for shifting loads and strap loosening. These drivers can be libel for damage to the load and smoke damage. They sign a document saying their happy with how the pipe was loaded and do not leave the yard without being tarped. Both the yard manager and driver sign a document and take several pictures to verify both parties are happy. Old fat guys can spend a couple hrs prepping a load. Athletic young men can do it in 45 min. Lol

The quality of the driver and the his/her care of the load!  Darn right.  For the last week I was unfortunate enough, or fortunate enough, depending on your point of view, to stay in a regional Government of Thailand Teaching hospital.  During that time I had the pleasure of being the load (wheelchairs).  So,first of all, you've got all kinds of rigs/chairs: lightweight, heavyweight, inflatable tires, solid rubber tires, exposed wheels that can touch the "load", cupholders, you can almost name it.

But what stood out?  One operator who simply got it when it came to the quality of the load.  This guy picked me up in my room, increased speed in the hallway so that he could decrease speed over bumps.  He hit the elevator door button, waited for the doors to open, scanned the inside for occupants and positions, hit the freeze doors open button, wheeled me gently into the cab and reversed the process out to the curb where he got me close to our truck, applied the locking brakes, checked the cab of my pickup for obstacles and gently loaded me inside, at my own speed and under my own direction.

That man got a tip!

[Boat + 1,323]

5 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

The quality of the driver and the his/her care of the load!  Darn right.  For the last week I was unfortunate enough, or fortunate enough, depending on your point of view, to stay in a regional Government of Thailand Teaching hospital.  During that time I had the pleasure of being the load (wheelchairs).  So,first of all, you've got all kinds of rigs/chairs: lightweight, heavyweight, inflatable tires, solid rubber tires, exposed wheels that can touch the "load", cupholders, you can almost name it.

But what stood out?  One operator who simply got it when it came to the quality of the load.  This guy picked me up in my room, increased speed in the hallway so that he could decrease speed over bumps.  He hit the elevator door button, waited for the doors to open, scanned the inside for occupants and positions, hit the freeze doors open button, wheeled me gently into the cab and reversed the process out to the curb where he got me close to our truck, applied the locking brakes, checked the cab of my pickup for obstacles and gently loaded me inside, at my own speed and under my own direction.

That man got a tip!

Hope your doing well and welcome back.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

On 12/7/2020 at 1:15 PM, Dan Clemmensen said:

That will be true, but those charging stations are providing maybe 1 MWh in .5  hr, so that's 2 MW.  That station needs more power than is available in a residential or even commercial neighborhood. It should be available in an industrial area. By comparison, I charge my Model Y at home at rate of 6 KW, using a 30 Amp 240VAC circuit. (roughly 25 mi/hr) so it would take me 12 hours  for a 300 mi charge.

Dan, you have written a fair amount about the computers in these cars.  In your scenarios above, it strikes me that 1) you are not going to need 300 miles/day, and 2) when you do need 300 miles, you can "tell" the computer about it and it will make sure the battery is ready for you to hit the road on time.  Is that correct, or do I assume too much?  I also remember you talking about going on a trip and the computer planning everything for you, at least as far as the car's energy needs along the way.