ICE Engines Hear to Stay Regardless of War Against

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

 

"Those companies (GM, Fiat-Crysler, Ford, Toyota, Honda, etc.) will fade away, because they cannot catch up with Tesla's 10-year head start."

Maybe they will maybe they wont.

All they need to do is get with the latest tech as in buy it or copy it.

These companies are huge so dont underestimate them just yet.

You are correct that batteries are the key and until someone can develop a graphene battery (or similar) as the car's shell (therefore eliminating a lot of the weight from the vehicle) then all bets are off.

Edited December 10, 2020 by Rob Plant

[Rob Kramer + 696]

10 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

With the major exception of the battery, EV components are simpler and easier to replace than ICE-vehicle components, so I see no warranty issues, except for the battery. For example, the electric motor is much simpler to replace than an IC engine and is less likely to fail in the first place. The battery is a big deal. Early adopters will see their EV resale value drop off a cliff. However, anyone buying an EV with a nominal range when new of 300 mi will still have a marketable used EV in ten years with a range of more than 150 mi. An EV produced after about 2025 will likely have a battery that lasts for a million miles.

You are correct that EV-denying auto companies will treat their EVs and their purchasers poorly. That's basically all ICE-vehicle companies except VW and possibly Nissan. Those companies are in denial, and their EVs are "compliance vehicles" built to fulfill regulatory requirements, not to make money. Those companies (GM, Fiat-Crysler, Ford, Toyota, Honda, etc.) will fade away, because they cannot catch up with Tesla's 10-year head start.

Have you ever replaced an ICE engine? Especially a modern one? When I worked at Hyundai I could have a elantra engine out in 3hrs other guys 2 hrs. The warranty engine replacement pays 8.5hrs to remove engine swap everything onto a short block and reinstall.  Generally took me 9hr but most guys beat 8.5 .... its really a peice of cake with proper tools . Same job on customer pay is 14 hours. Thats from diagnosis to final test drive. Just saying for a engine to last 300k and be in and out in 6hr as a long block is really good. Now do a chev diesel and have to do cab off or something and your doubling the time but its all relative . 

Edit: admittedly I haven't worked on pure EV. but I can also tell you there's plenty of DIY guys who won't buy them cause they can't fix them.

Edited December 10, 2020 by Rob Kramer

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

5 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said:

For everyone to have a car 2 mins away there still needs to be a car for everyone.

Nope

Why does everyone need a car??

You need to think of this as a taxi not something you own! what is wrong with you your wife and your 3 kids jumping in a taxi and going to your family's for Xmas? Its not a bus where you have multiple households as i agree most people don't want that they want privacy, able to listen to their own music etc etc  which they get with the driver less taxi option.

[Rob Kramer + 696]

5 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

Nope

Why does everyone need a car??

You need to think of this as a taxi not something you own! what is wrong with you your wife and your 3 kids jumping in a taxi and going to your family's for Xmas? Its not a bus where you have multiple households as i agree most people don't want that they want privacy, able to listen to their own music etc etc  which they get with the driver less taxi option.

Because there are typical working hours so the majority of people all need to move all at the same time. Like on holidays.  90% of family travels to the 10%s location .

Edit : it is exactly as its called driverless taxi. Beside lower cost it won't remove ownership.

Edited December 10, 2020 by Rob Kramer

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

2 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said:

Because there are typical working hours so the majority of people all need to move all at the same time. Like on holidays.  90% of family travels to the 10%s location .

Edit : it is exactly as its called driverless taxi. Beside lower cost it won't remove ownership.

Time will tell Rob!

If the demand is there the supply will naturally follow if there's money to be made.

Even if you cut down from 2-3 cars per household to 1 its saving money

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

43 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said:

Have you ever replaced an ICE engine? Especially a modern one? When I worked at Hyundai I could have a elantra engine out in 3hrs other guys 2 hrs. The warranty engine replacement pays 8.5hrs to remove engine swap everything onto a short block and reinstall.  Generally took me 9hr but most guys beat 8.5 .... its really a peice of cake with proper tools . Same job on customer pay is 14 hours. Thats from diagnosis to final test drive. Just saying for a engine to last 300k and be in and out in 6hr as a long block is really good. Now do a chev diesel and have to do cab off or something and your doubling the time but its all relative . 

Edit: admittedly I haven't worked on pure EV. but I can also tell you there's plenty of DIY guys who won't buy them cause they can't fix them.

You are a real mechanic, while I am purely theoretical, so your observations are more reliable than my mumblings. However, the two major theoretical differences are 1) the electric motor is a lot lighter, so a single guy can handle it fairly easy even without an engine hoist, and 2) you do not need to "swap everything" onto the new one, because no accessories are connected to the motor. Its only connections are the chassis mounts, the drive, and the electrical connections.

Now as a practical matter, the manufacturer may have buried the motor so deep inside the car that nobody can get to it, but that depends on the car design. ICE engines are traditionally easy to get to because they need periodic service. The "ultimate" EV design will put one motor in each hub, which should make a motor swap about as quick as a brake job.

 

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

 

"Those companies (GM, Fiat-Crysler, Ford, Toyota, Honda, etc.) will fade away, because they cannot catch up with Tesla's 10-year head start."

Maybe they will maybe they wont.

All they need to do is get with the latest tech as in buy it or copy it.

These companies are huge so dont underestimate them just yet.

You are correct that batteries are the key and until someone can develop a graphene battery (or similar) as the car's shell (therefore eliminating a lot of the weight from the vehicle) then all bets are off.

The ICE companies have spent more than a century developing a supply chain infrastructure and a corporate infrastructure and financial ecosystem that includes unions and regulatory constraints. It takes a major shock to even get their attention, and it takes a lot of time to change direction. The only reason VW got serious on EVs was  the dieselgate fiasco. Just to calibrate: The industry makes (pre-Covid) less than 95 million vechicles/yr (ICE,EV,PHEV...). VW is the biggest single supplier at about 12 million/yr. Tesla's three Gigafactories (Shanghi, Berlin, Texas) are designed to expand to 2 million/year each within about 4 year after start of construction, and Tesla's ability to build a new Gigafactory is improving. To copy Tesla, a traditional company will need to basically let its existing distributed system fade away as it builds completely new vertically-integrated factories. A new start has a better chance of copying Tesla than a traditional ICE company does.

Edited December 10, 2020 by Dan Clemmensen
sp

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

8 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

I actually think the opposite 

Most countries are committed to net zero Co2 emissions by 2050 and having millions of ICE cars on the road in each country isnt going to do that!

The political will is for EV's so Ev's we will get.

Soon we wont need to even own a car as there will be driver less taxis everywhere unless you live in the middle of nowhere and that's where ICE vehicles will cling on to an ever reducing market.

There are a number of innovative companies already looking at cheaper viable alternatives than the current "buy a very expensive EV for $70K" as can be seen by the article posted on Oil Price 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Electric-Car-Boom-Is-About-To-Get-Even-Hotter.html

There may well be a reduction in EV sales late in this decade as we all realise we actually dont need the cost outlay of a car as we can summon one on an app in 2 minutes to take us wherever we want to go. No costly outlay, no costly repairs, no costly insurance etc we only  pay for the use of a car whilst we are in it and that's all. 

Sound cheaper?

It is not very often I become involved in marketing dynamics..there are no rules so to speak..What I can tell you creating market demand thru legislation is a very bad concept in this country called the United States.

One only needs to look at the ACA to determine that. It's collapse and restructuring are intiment. At the same time let us not forget health care is motivated by the preservation of life itself. Survival is one of humanity's strongest driver's. Yet it will fail under the current mandated legislative  marketing.

 

Autos are merely a extension of how we perceive ourselves, it completes one's self. I cannot help but to draw a parraell to mate selection. What man or woman has not been enamored by shiny new and exciting person only to discover a few yrs later when the flash wears off just how did that happen. The time lost the finical ramifications...what was I thinking?

A fundamental of the US auto industry is the love of the auto the infatuation.. one cannot change that thru legislation. It is quite safe to say the US was built around that love/infatuation or maybe better said that dream.

Seeing Musk leaving California and it's high cost of manufacturing is a indicator that he understands the infatuation/ honeymoon period is over. Practically is coming fast. Personally I wish him well he has recognized the market and done quite well for himself.

I sit here a grin, there is a very old song that sheds quite a bit of light on this marketing topic. Heuy Lewis and the News...a corny old rock band that became quite famous for the hit song..

"I Wanna New Drug". Metaphorical for something new. The time has come the honeymoon period is over. Humanity and it's motivators are chaotic ..as of now there is no linear solutions..Just hope for a new drug....thru legislation?

 

Edited December 11, 2020 by Eyes Wide Open

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

2 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

Have you ever replaced an ICE engine? Especially a modern one? When I worked at Hyundai I could have a elantra engine out in 3hrs other guys 2 hrs. The warranty engine replacement pays 8.5hrs to remove engine swap everything onto a short block and reinstall.  Generally took me 9hr but most guys beat 8.5 .... its really a peice of cake with proper tools . Same job on customer pay is 14 hours. Thats from diagnosis to final test drive. Just saying for a engine to last 300k and be in and out in 6hr as a long block is really good. Now do a chev diesel and have to do cab off or something and your doubling the time but its all relative . 

Edit: admittedly I haven't worked on pure EV. but I can also tell you there's plenty of DIY guys who won't buy them cause they can't fix them.

You do bring up part of the equation, now let me ask you a question or two. First the dealership must purchase the heavy equipment to work on such vehicle's, then the dealership must train the staff nesscary to support EVS, then the dealership needs to be certified by the state and the mfg. And of course these new employees need to be kept busy during there working hours...no work no pay...lol maybe they will take oil changes after two yrs of college...go figure.

 

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

4 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Those companies (GM, Fiat-Crysler, Ford, Toyota, Honda, etc.) will fade away, because they cannot catch up with Tesla's 10-year head start.

Toyota was/is a leader in hybrid.  They have the tech and know-how to switch to full EV.

[Rob Kramer + 696]

2 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

You do bring up part of the equation, now let me ask you a question or two. First the dealership must purchase the heavy equipment to work on such vehicle's, then the dealership must train the staff nesscary to support EVS, then the dealership needs to be certified by the state and the mfg. And of course these new employees need to be kept busy during there working hours...no work no pay...lol maybe they will take oil changes after two yrs of college...go figure.

 

 

3 years for cdn auto liscens.  Many 3rd year techs still making 14$ / hr with some bonus never over 3$/ hr. But ya the shop has the large and specialty tools techs have general tools but for 99.999 of situations.  So a 10k box with 10k of tools is standard.  If you worked at Honda in the 90s you could get by o  2k of tools. Same with Toyota.  There's always times of no work snow days early morning cancellations and evening running out of work . Normally used safties and new sales fill that but most dealerships have a guy on salary to do that now. Low pay easy work.  Instead of hi pay gravy as its called.a new car paid 2hr+ to largely remove plastic and road test. But ya theres online courses and after x ammount you get sent to a HQ/school and get certified.  Used to be 10% more pay to work on hybrid .... and getting guys to work on electrical, hybrids and AC is like pulling teeth. Because its all warranty and doesn't pay half of what it should. Warranty diagnosis is included in the part replacement . So a touchscreen nav backup cam ect will pay .3 (18 mins) to get the car into the shop diagnos get parts or order parts park vehicle bring vehicle back into shop and replace part all while punching on and off in 6 min blocks on a computer so there's no "warranty time fraud". Even tho you could be waiting for parts dept. For 15 mins. Its crap for 25$ hr . Some guys have apprentices do the work and work on 2 cars at once have them get their parts ect. But you gotta be a huge jerk or a kiss ass or shop manager to get that service. But ya EV all that will end guys will quit and go to non ev shops.

[Rob Kramer + 696]

4 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Time will tell Rob!

If the demand is there the supply will naturally follow if there's money to be made.

Even if you cut down from 2-3 cars per household to 1 its saving money

I have a question about this. So if Tesla makes the car for a profit that means it has margins on sales . If it also makes software and hardware why would tesla sell the cars going for self driving taxi? Why wouldn't they just create the app the joins the payee and car and locations . Same question with the semi trucks. If your sales margin is 2-10k why sell a truck that can do 1k/ week in deliveries? Insurance is yourself just need a pile of cash and replacement vehicles easy for tesla. And there's never plant downtime. Can self advertise the system for free. Like why sell self diving cars . Its essentially selling a cheap slave for little to no profit . 

Tesla would be able to undercut the entire taxi uber delivery transportation system. If say in trucking a trucker can lower fuel cost , eliminate a 40/yr job and the service and insurance industry. Taxi: fuel driver insurance and repair savings per car per year: 2k +40k + 1k +1k $ saved per year . 44k plus the business income. 

Edited December 10, 2020 by Rob Kramer

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

37 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said:

I have a question about this. So if Tesla makes the car for a profit that means it has margins on sales . If it also makes software and hardware why would tesla sell the cars going for self driving taxi? Why wouldn't they just create the app the joins the payee and car and locations . Same question with the semi trucks. If your sales margin is 2-10k why sell a truck that can do 1k/ week in deliveries? Insurance is yourself just need a pile of cash and replacement vehicles easy for tesla. And there's never plant downtime. Can self advertise the system for free. Like why sell self diving cars . Its essentially selling a cheap slave for little to no profit . 

Tesla would be able to undercut the entire taxi uber delivery transportation system. If say in trucking a trucker can lower fuel cost , eliminate a 40/yr job and the service and insurance industry. Taxi: fuel driver insurance and repair savings per car per year: 2k +40k + 1k +1k $ saved per year . 44k plus the business income. 

You are making a clear illustration of the EV market being totally unsustainable, actually to this day there is no working model yet to provide a network of supporting dealers. The word is it is under warranty do not worry...Buy now and die later or will we fix it when it comes to that point. After 4/5 yrs that point is now here. It will be most interesting to see how govt officials and Tesla walks around these up coming issues.

Building and selling a product is one thing maintaining support is a entirely different concept, while a cell phone or comp maybe a throw away item a 50 to 100,000 dollar investment is not. 

Below is just a very small example of building and maintaining a service oriented business.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-solar-panel-fires-become-nightmare-some-homeowners-2019-10

Edited December 10, 2020 by Eyes Wide Open

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

16 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

To copy Tesla, a traditional company will need to basically let its existing distributed system fade away as it builds completely new vertically-integrated factories. A new start has a better chance of copying Tesla than a traditional ICE company does.

I agree the existing supply chains will largely be dead and new ones will emerge.

However a start up will need a huge amount of cash to try to catch Tesla and unless you have a billionaire owner (like Musk) it aint happening. Existing auto makers already wield a lot of power and have enormous clout with financing and banks which could enable them to go on to compete. We are already seeing car manufacturers such as BMW, Audi, Mercedes, Porche etc expanding their range of EV's at a staggering rate, The new BMW i4 will do 373 miles between charges do 0-60 in less than 4 seconds and is in a price range comparable to a Tesla model 3. Besides BMW there are Audi, Toyota , VW and Mercedes which already have an existing portfolio of EV's and hybrids that have comparable sales to Tesla in Europe. 

In 2019 Tesla sold only 37,251 cars in Europe (18% down on market share from 2018) out of  217,495 fully electric EV's sold, so only 17% of the market and falling quickly due to competition from the existing large manufacturers.

Again I think you underestimate the auto makers ability to change tac and quickly diversify into the EV market, they already have and have been actively doing so for the last 5-6 years at least.

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

13 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

I have a question about this. So if Tesla makes the car for a profit that means it has margins on sales . If it also makes software and hardware why would tesla sell the cars going for self driving taxi? Why wouldn't they just create the app the joins the payee and car and locations . Same question with the semi trucks. If your sales margin is 2-10k why sell a truck that can do 1k/ week in deliveries? Insurance is yourself just need a pile of cash and replacement vehicles easy for tesla. And there's never plant downtime. Can self advertise the system for free. Like why sell self diving cars . Its essentially selling a cheap slave for little to no profit . 

Tesla would be able to undercut the entire taxi uber delivery transportation system. If say in trucking a trucker can lower fuel cost , eliminate a 40/yr job and the service and insurance industry. Taxi: fuel driver insurance and repair savings per car per year: 2k +40k + 1k +1k $ saved per year . 44k plus the business income. 

Yeah and dont you think Tesla havent thought of that

They make the taxis for a small profit (your $2-10K) and then sell them to a sister Tesla company that is in effect a huge taxi fleet firm based around an app and make far more profit than just making cars could ever offer. You are selling the car over and over again in effect.

There are already driver less taxi companies Waymo (owned by Alphabet which is owned by Google) , and Robotaxi for example

In fact Tesla as you would expect have already moved ahead with their own driver less taxi

https://techcrunch.com/2019/04/22/tesla-plans-to-launch-a-robotaxi-network-in-2020/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGJKCrZk0A1bxIuJC4OkAeg7etyNGI-vgT82Q7kgy3_dwKulrse4cEvShFFOKdwS29Z0eIBa739VpphrfMs0t8u_iAncWMvT4P19SSJAkzrYS396Oq6bGfpPJorPrBATGqaAsDzi5u5MyKfmbanurBXJFzzDsJjfSG-1v0RA56wo

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

17 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

You are making a clear illustration of the EV market being totally unsustainable, actually to this day there is no working model yet to provide a network of supporting dealers. The word is it is under warranty do not worry...Buy now and die later or will we fix it when it comes to that point. After 4/5 yrs that point is now here. It will be most interesting to see how govt officials and Tesla walks around these up coming issues.

Building and selling a product is one thing maintaining support is a entirely different concept, while a cell phone or comp maybe a throw away item a 50 to 100,000 dollar investment is not. 

Below is just a very small example of building and maintaining a service oriented business.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-solar-panel-fires-become-nightmare-some-homeowners-2019-10

The EV market is still in its infancy and its infrastructure is growing.

In fact you would be hard pushed to find any service station in the UK which hasnt installed charging stations and super fast ones at that.

Charging points are already installed at most supermarkets, car parks and any decent hotel.

However the point is battery tech is rapidly improving all the time and EV's travelling 300-400 miles on 1 charge is common place even now. i dont know about you but after driving 400 miles i need a break even if its just a comfort break.

Regarding servicing I dont get the problem? To maintain a full service history on any new ICE vehicle usually means it has to go back to the dealer to perform the service to maintain the warranty as they are sealed units these days and need specialist equipment. So for any EV you just send it back to the dealer as you would your ICE vehicle. The difference being on an EV there is a lot less to go wrong!

@Rob Kramer I did change the engine from my mark II Ford Escort when I was 20 just using a Haynes manual, it took me a lot longer than 9 hours as id never even changed a spark plug before that lol but it worked in the end 😀

Edited December 11, 2020 by Rob Plant

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

6 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

In 2019 Tesla sold only 37,251 cars in Europe (18% down on market share from 2018) out of  217,495 fully electric EV's sold, so only 17% of the market and falling quickly due to competition from the existing large manufacturers.

Again I think you underestimate the auto makers ability to change tac and quickly diversify into the EV market, they already have and have been actively doing so for the last 5-6 years at least.

In 2019, Tesla made cars for Europe in the Fremont factory. Each quarter, they spent the first month making and shipping European cars (which could arrive in EU in time to be sold that quarter) and the rest of the time making US cars (different charging plugs.) They sold every European car they made, and the factory was producing at max. Tesla's EU sales went up in absolute terms, not down. Again in 2020, they sold all the Fremont EU cars they could produce. By the end of 2020 Shanghai Teslas were appearing in EU. By the end of 2021, Giga Berlin cars will be produced at a rate exceeding VW's EVs. This will continue until Tesla finally saturates its market. Until then, they are production-limited. When they finally saturate their Model 3/Model Y market, they will almost certainly begin producing a "Model 2" (or whatever), but there is no economic reason to do that while the factories are running flat-out making the more profitable more expensive cars.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

6 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

I agree the existing supply chains will largely be dead and new ones will emerge.

However a start up will need a huge amount of cash to try to catch Tesla and unless you have a billionaire owner (like Musk) it aint happening. Existing auto makers already wield a lot of power and have enormous clout with financing and banks which could enable them to go on to compete. We are already seeing car manufacturers such as BMW, Audi, Mercedes, Porche etc expanding their range of EV's at a staggering rate, The new BMW i4 will do 373 miles between charges do 0-60 in less than 4 seconds and is in a price range comparable to a Tesla model 3. Besides BMW there are Audi, Toyota , VW and Mercedes which already have an existing portfolio of EV's and hybrids that have comparable sales to Tesla in Europe. 

In 2019 Tesla sold only 37,251 cars in Europe (18% down on market share from 2018) out of  217,495 fully electric EV's sold, so only 17% of the market and falling quickly due to competition from the existing large manufacturers.

Again I think you underestimate the auto makers ability to change tac and quickly diversify into the EV market, they already have and have been actively doing so for the last 5-6 years at least.

I see the situation as being like Amazon versus traditional superstore chains. Amazon spent a decade losing money while developing its business, while the chains tried to ignore them and continue doing business as usual. By the tine the chains finally reacted, it was too late. Sears, Penny's, K-mart are out of business and Walmart is desperately and belatedly trying to react.

Financing for a new company in the new economy is all about hopes and dreams. You need a huckster with a vision, not a billionaire. You need investors that believe in the dream instead of looking at a balance sheet. This is insane. This is Amazon and Tesla in 2010.

I do not believe that the automakers (except VW) are committed to diversifying. Each of them has a project or two underway, but they do not truly believe and act as if their core business and core competency (building ICE cars) is going to die quickly.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

7 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

I see the situation as being like Amazon versus traditional superstore chains. Amazon spent a decade losing money while developing its business, while the chains tried to ignore them and continue doing business as usual. By the tine the chains finally reacted, it was too late. Sears, Penny's, K-mart are out of business and Walmart is desperately and belatedly trying to react.

Financing for a new company in the new economy is all about hopes and dreams. You need a huckster with a vision, not a billionaire. You need investors that believe in the dream instead of looking at a balance sheet. This is insane. This is Amazon and Tesla in 2010.

I do not believe that the automakers (except VW) are committed to diversifying. Each of them has a project or two underway, but they do not truly believe and act as if their core business and core competency (building ICE cars) is going to die quickly.

That would be a somewhat honest portrait of a marketing approach. And make no mistake here I do understand risk mgmt of investment funds. Protection of funding thru legislation is quite effective and has been in practice for many yrs.

It does however have have enoumours ramifications, and that would be destroying a countrys infrastructure...Amazon right now as we speak is close to collapsing the US retail market. 

If that happens one will see thousands of retail malls collapse, thousands of brick and mortar store's closing. Next stop banking institutions which will make the housing crisis look like closing koolaid stands...Then there is the employment issue's...The list is endless and the ramifications beyond comprehension.

Covid has greatly excelled this process, the holidays will be extraordinary for Amazon yet by March of next yr I can assure defaults in commercial real estate will stun the world.. 

Paradise has a cost, throwing the baby out with the bathwater comes to mind and we are damm close to doing just that.

[Rob Kramer + 696]

6 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Yeah and dont you think Tesla havent thought of that

They make the taxis for a small profit (your $2-10K) and then sell them to a sister Tesla company that is in effect a huge taxi fleet firm based around an app and make far more profit than just making cars could ever offer. You are selling the car over and over again in effect.

There are already driver less taxi companies Waymo (owned by Alphabet which is owned by Google) , and Robotaxi for example

In fact Tesla as you would expect have already moved ahead with their own driver less taxi

https://techcrunch.com/2019/04/22/tesla-plans-to-launch-a-robotaxi-network-in-2020/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGJKCrZk0A1bxIuJC4OkAeg7etyNGI-vgT82Q7kgy3_dwKulrse4cEvShFFOKdwS29Z0eIBa739VpphrfMs0t8u_iAncWMvT4P19SSJAkzrYS396Oq6bGfpPJorPrBATGqaAsDzi5u5MyKfmbanurBXJFzzDsJjfSG-1v0RA56wo

Well if they launch this then I'd give it to them in market value. Still over valued tho. Plus I still think all taxis would be replaced before less personal cars . As we first were talking about. So there's still how many taxis in teslas sales locations and how many teslas can be built. So essentially they'd have to stop selling private to replace taxis.  Probably a batter business model anyways 😆.  Be a first ever self supplied vehicle insurance data and marketing. 

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

13 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

That would be a somewhat honest portrait of a marketing approach. And make no mistake here I do understand risk mgmt of investment funds. Protection of funding thru legislation is quite effective and has been in practice for many yrs.

It does however have have enoumours ramifications, and that would be destroying a countrys infrastructure...Amazon right now as we speak is close to collapsing the US retail market. 

If that happens one will see thousands of retail malls collapse, thousands of brick and mortar store's closing. Next stop banking institutions which will make the housing crisis look like closing koolaid stands...Then there is the employment issue's...The list is endless and the ramifications beyond comprehension.

Covid has greatly excelled this process, the holidays will be extraordinary for Amazon yet by March of next yr I can assure defaults in commercial real estate will stun the world.. 

Paradise has a cost, throwing the baby out with the bathwater comes to mind and we are damm close to doing just that.

Technological advances cause disruption to existing economic structures, creating stranded assets and social disruption. This has been true since well before the start of the industrial revolution.  You cannot freeze the economy at the point you personally are comfortable with. A civilization that remains artificially frozen will eventually either consume all of its resources as its population expands, or it will be overrun by a competing civilization. This has also happened numerous times in history. Increasing productivity makes more efficient use of resources, but it also puts people out of work. In the long run, it raises the average standard of living. Without some sort of redistribution mechanism, most or all of the increase goes to the rich. One mechanism is equitable taxation, since the rich gain the most from living in a peaceful and stable society.

Amazon is "destroying [part of] our infrastructure", namely the chain stores, but that's because that part of the infrastructure is obsolete. 20 years ago, Walmart was destroying small retail, because small retail was obsolete.  Tesla is destroying ICE dealerships, because the ICE dealership model is becoming obsolete. Natural gas is destroying the coal industry, because coal is obsolete.

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,256]

1 hour ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Tesla is destroying ICE dealerships, because the ICE dealership model is becoming obsolete.

I disagree with that statement as most folks still prefer to go to a dealership and see and feel, test drive a number of vehicles. Tesla dealerships are few and far between. Too many people live in rural USA that would rather have a good ol' fashioned ICE vehicle, me being one em. Cost to buy a EV is still 10k+ more than the same model ICE. I can buy alot of petro for the cost diff.

1 hour ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Natural gas is destroying the coal industry, because coal is obsolete.

Wait till some foreign entity abroad or internal hacks the power grid and shuts Nat Gas and possibly electric grid, then what are you going to heat your house with? I still have a wood burner that can burn coal if needed to stay warm.....

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

2 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Technological advances cause disruption to existing economic structures, creating stranded assets and social disruption. This has been true since well before the start of the industrial revolution.  You cannot freeze the economy at the point you personally are comfortable with. A civilization that remains artificially frozen will eventually either consume all of its resources as its population expands, or it will be overrun by a competing civilization. This has also happened numerous times in history. Increasing productivity makes more efficient use of resources, but it also puts people out of work. In the long run, it raises the average standard of living. Without some sort of redistribution mechanism, most or all of the increase goes to the rich. One mechanism is equitable taxation, since the rich gain the most from living in a peaceful and stable society.

Amazon is "destroying [part of] our infrastructure", namely the chain stores, but that's because that part of the infrastructure is obsolete. 20 years ago, Walmart was destroying small retail, because small retail was obsolete.  Tesla is destroying ICE dealerships, because the ICE dealership model is becoming obsolete. Natural gas is destroying the coal industry, because coal is obsolete.

Interesting thought/feeling's...Destroying?....Have we been playing a smidge to much WarCraft have we? 

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

8 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Interesting thought/feeling's...Destroying?....Have we been playing a smidge to much WarCraft have we? 

I took the word "destroying" direct;y from your post that I quoted in my post, which is why it is in quotes in what I wrote. The hyperbole is yours.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

9 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

I disagree with that statement as most folks still prefer to go to a dealership and see and feel, test drive a number of vehicles. Tesla dealerships are few and far between. Too many people live in rural USA that would rather have a good ol' fashioned ICE vehicle, me being one em. Cost to buy a EV is still 10k+ more than the same model ICE. I can buy alot of petro for the cost diff.

Tesla has sales and service centers, not dealerships. They are adding them strategically. They do not need to add them more quickly because they already sell all the cars they can produce. In the US, several state legislatures (controlled by auto dealers) have prohibited car sales except through dealerships, so yes, Tesla centers are "few and far between" in some places.

I am probably biased, here. I absolutely hated the dealership experience. I always felt like I was being scammed or cheated. To buy a Tesla, you go online and click on some buttons, and the car is delivered to you. No hassle, no haggle, all costs known in advance.