How Much Oil Could EVs Feasibly Displace by 2040?

(edited)

Autonomous cars in taxi-fleets will be electric because it is cheaper to run and maintain an electric vehicle. Being autonomous and not requiring a driver, it will be far cheaper than Uber or Lyft is right now. It will actually be cheaper than owning and maintaining and individual car. GM's CEO is already preparing for a post-car era with the launch of an automated fleet of autonomous electric cars in 2019.

If robo-taxis are a success, oil demand will peak in the early 2020s and prices will collapse.

http://fortune.com/2018/05/23/gm-general-motors-fortune-500/

 

1 hour ago, Bhimsen Pachawry said:

Is autonomous car powered by infinity stone that it needs no oil? How does it matter if it is one car running for 20 hours or 10 cars running for 2 hours each? The oil consumption will be the same. Also, how is autonomous car better than say carpooling in Ola/Uber? Why are you upset at the driver?

 

Edited by JunoTen

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(edited)

2 minutes ago, JunoTen said:

 

 

 

 

Edited by JunoTen

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41 minutes ago, JunoTen said:

Autonomous cars in taxi-fleets will be electric because it is cheaper to run and maintain an electric vehicle. Being autonomous and not requiring a driver, it will be far cheaper than Uber or Lyft is right now. It will actually be cheaper than owning and maintaining and individual car. GM's CEO is already preparing for a post-car era with the launch of an automated fleet of autonomous electric cars in 2019.

If robo-taxis are a success, oil demand will peak in the early 2020s and prices will collapse.

http://fortune.com/2018/05/23/gm-general-motors-fortune-500/

 

 

We were speaking of oil savings, not cost. Next, taxis need to operate for long hours.It is impossible to get time to charge batteries in between functioning hours. So, taxies being electric simply is too difficult

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junoten....autonomous car has nothing to do with this topic!!! stick to the topic! if you want to talk about this non-existence autonomous, start another topic. not here. here is about EV. 

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oil consumption will not change as well if electricity source comes from fossil fuel. who does not know this by now??? unless you plugging back those CO2 from natural gas powerplant as an example to oil or gas fields, there will be no change to oil consumption. using EV just shift the source of pollution to elsewhere!!! 

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7 hours ago, Alvin Lee said:

junoten....autonomous car has nothing to do with this topic!!! stick to the topic! if you want to talk about this non-existence autonomous, start another topic. not here. here is about EV. 

Autonomous vehicles used in fleets will be electric, so it is related. Robo-taxis are not non-existent, Waymo will launch them by the end of the year in Phoenix and GM will launch them on scale in 2019. 

"

By the end of 2019, Google spinoff Waymo, Uber, and GM all plan to have fleets of autonomous cars deployed in various US cities to provide on-demand rides for passengers. By eliminating the cost of the driver, these rides are expected to be far cheaper than typical Uber or Lyft rides, and even cheaper than owning a car for personal transportation. 

"

http://www.businessinsider.fr/us/lyft-deploying-self-driving-bmws-in-las-vegas-2018-5

Those autonomous Evs will displace large amounts of oil demand if they are successful. In fact they will probably cause peak oil demand and a crash of the whole oil industry as explained in this conference https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=duWFnukFJhQ

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topic here about EV. nothing to do with autonomous rubbish!!

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might as well you go with trains & buses than this autonomus rubbish. you are asking yr govt to control you via these politically autonomous nonsense!! 

 

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lol.. How many of you have read Tony seba's rethinx report???? Autonomous cars are nothing to do with EV's? what world are you from??

On 5/27/2018 at 7:42 PM, Alvin Lee said:

topic here about EV. nothing to do with autonomous rubbish!!

 

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https://www.rethinkx.com/transportation 

pls read this report and tell me how many of you changed your mind about oil consumption. oil is on weak wicket wlli definitely be a less used commodity in next 5 years. 

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On 5/23/2018 at 8:19 PM, Dennis Coyne said:

If we take the middle range of those estimates in the chart above (250 million EVs in 2040) and assume the average ICE vehicle replaced drive 15,000 miles per year and gets 35 miles per gallon, then demand is lower by about 7 Mb/d, than the alternative where no EVs are sold.  The problem is that C+C output has been increasing by about 800 kb/d each year on average from 1982 to 2017 (linear trend).  If we make the simple assumption that that trend continues, we have 0.8 times 23 or an 18.4 Mb/d increase in demand (81+18=99 Mb/d of C+C demand).

If oil output peaks as I foresee in 2025+/-2 at about 85+/-2 Mb/d, then output is likely to be far short of demand as C+C output is likely to have fallen to about 79 Mb/d by 2040, so demand would be 99-7=92 Mb/d and we would be short by 13 Mb/d.  Even the most optimistic scenario in the chart above only reduces demand by 14 Mb/d, still leaving us 6 Mb/d short in 2040, though better fuel efficiency for the rest of the light vehicle fleet as well as the bus, truck, and jet fleet may get supply and demand to match.

Oil scenario below

oilshock1805b.png

As per tony seba's repot 30 MBD will be disrupted by 2030. just read the below report. all these calculations are to misguide people.

https://www.rethinkx.com/transportation 

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Peak Oil was a BS narrative and now Peak Oil Demand is a BS narrative.  

Yes, EVs will displace some oil demand, such as at gas stations, but because oil demand rises every year, the increased supply of oil will be repurposed for other uses such as petrochemicals or jet fuel.  The rate of increase in oil demand will be slowed, but oil demand is not going down.  Emerging markets continue to expand the number of airports in their countries as their middle class emerges, increasing the demand for airplanes, not to mention more frequent flights being added to existing airports.  Jet fuel demand will continue to rise year over year.  Petrochemicals, such as plastics, are also continuing to rise year over year.

Another factor that has to be looked at:  

How much oil does it take to manufacture the mining equipment, and then run the diesel haul trucks, in order to mine lithium and cobalt, which are then shipped internationally to battery manufacturing plants and then shipped to auto manufacturing plants and then shipped to car dealerships?  

I don't see oil demand peaking anytime soon.

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GeoSciGuy - quite right. I could treat the peak demand story at least a little more seriously if the same people talking about peak demand are not much the same people who had  been talking about peak supply a few years back. Even if EVs are adopted en masse - highly unlikely - then at most you would expect a reduction in the growth of demand, rather than a peak or plateau. The same wishful green thinking can be seen in coal, incidentally. Wind farms and the like still only account for a vanishingly small percentage of the world's energy demand and activists are forecasting that coal will fall out of use.   

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2 hours ago, markslawson said:

GeoSciGuy - quite right. I could treat the peak demand story at least a little more seriously if the same people talking about peak demand are not much the same people who had  been talking about peak supply a few years back. Even if EVs are adopted en masse - highly unlikely - then at most you would expect a reduction in the growth of demand, rather than a peak or plateau. The same wishful green thinking can be seen in coal, incidentally. Wind farms and the like still only account for a vanishingly small percentage of the world's energy demand and activists are forecasting that coal will fall out of use.   

Coal demand may go down in the short term as natural gas and renewables take market share from thermal coal in some cases, but in the long term, global coal demand will continue to climb. 

The delusional left doesn't realize that coal is critical for concrete and steel production.  As global GDP grows, concrete and steel demand will also grow, and that requires coal. 

Also, according to the Department of Energy, many American coal reserves contain high concentrations of rare earth elements.  That means American coal could be crucial to securing national and international supplies of these strategic metals, on which China currently has a global monopoly. 

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bharat....understand the topic here...talk about autonomus as separate discussion! it is about EV!! which god damn world you come from?? calling ppl ignorant. just shut up. 

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Gents, it might be a good idea to have autonomous vehicles as a separate thread from the EV thread.

Meantime, please tone down a notch the strident comments.  This forum is meant for friendly discussion, even when the ideas presented may be significantly different.

Cheers, from your friendly neighborhood Moderator.

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