United States LNG Exports Reach Third Place

[Coffeeguyzz + 454]

Nick

"Straight forward economics ...".

Exactly.

While contractual particulars between suppliers and consumers are ordinarily shrouded in secrecy, data frequently emerges by which observers may make informed guesstimates of purchase price.

 

Turkey is increasingly buying LNG rather than piped  - in large measure - because it is cheaper.

Turkey just announced it is placing its third FSRU. It is already home to the world's largest.

Piped gas was - purportedly - costing Turkish utilities  >$7/mmbtu whereas spot LNG was available at ~$6.

Qatar is struggling to land long term supply contracts with both India and Pakistan as the Al Thani regime is seeking oil-indexed pricing at the $7/$8 price points. Not that the lifting/processing/shipping calls for 8 buck natty.

Rather, the perceived government revenue requirements necessitate  it.

 

Looking ahead, the 'case' for natgas/LNG may  actually be strengthening due to an unexpected source ... hydrogen.

 

World's first commercial hydrogen/natgas hybrid plant is being built in Ohio right now ... the Long Ridge Energy Terminal.

GE's H frame turbines can burn up to 20% hydrogen along  with gas.

Modifications enable 100% burn.

 

San Diego utility is shipping hydrogen along with natgas in pipelines in a pilot project. Injection and retrieval is a somewhat simple process

If successful, gas pipelines all over the country (world?) might convey H.

 

Ammonia - NH3 - is also being tested as a conveyance/storage medium for Hydrogen molecules.

Laboratory work has already achieved - supposedly - the Holy Grail threshold of <1$/kg production cost to make Hydrogen a potentially viable fuel in commercial applications.

 

Future is incredibly dynamic and moving at ever accelerating rates of change.

 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

14 hours ago, Coffeeguyzz said:

For folks wishing to see how this LNG  narrative will play out, the short Reuters article from today, Dec. 22 ("Gazprom losing share in Finland to LNG ...),  provides a glimpse in real time.

Gazprom has already lost 1/3 of its market share in Finland.

In Finland.

Now, most readers here well know the geographic proximty between Finland and Russia,  but - for the American public-school edjumakated audience - they are pretty close to each other.

With China effectively banning Aussie Coal... I expect to see Qatari LNG gas imports going up as one can set up gas power plants VERY quickly.  Indonesia can't ramp coal up much as they already have and so has India.  China is tapped out on its own coal production...

[NickW + 2,714]

12 hours ago, Coffeeguyzz said:

Nick

"Straight forward economics ...".

Exactly.

While contractual particulars between suppliers and consumers are ordinarily shrouded in secrecy, data frequently emerges by which observers may make informed guesstimates of purchase price.

 

Turkey is increasingly buying LNG rather than piped  - in large measure - because it is cheaper.

Turkey just announced it is placing its third FSRU. It is already home to the world's largest.

Piped gas was - purportedly - costing Turkish utilities  >$7/mmbtu whereas spot LNG was available at ~$6.

Qatar is struggling to land long term supply contracts with both India and Pakistan as the Al Thani regime is seeking oil-indexed pricing at the $7/$8 price points. Not that the lifting/processing/shipping calls for 8 buck natty.

Rather, the perceived government revenue requirements necessitate  it.

 

Looking ahead, the 'case' for natgas/LNG may  actually be strengthening due to an unexpected source ... hydrogen.

 

World's first commercial hydrogen/natgas hybrid plant is being built in Ohio right now ... the Long Ridge Energy Terminal.

GE's H frame turbines can burn up to 20% hydrogen along  with gas.

Modifications enable 100% burn.

 

San Diego utility is shipping hydrogen along with natgas in pipelines in a pilot project. Injection and retrieval is a somewhat simple process

If successful, gas pipelines all over the country (world?) might convey H.

 

Ammonia - NH3 - is also being tested as a conveyance/storage medium for Hydrogen molecules.

Laboratory work has already achieved - supposedly - the Holy Grail threshold of <1$/kg production cost to make Hydrogen a potentially viable fuel in commercial applications.

 

Future is incredibly dynamic and moving at ever accelerating rates of change.

 

I agree - I think a CH4 / Hydrogen blended network is the way forward for many countries. For gas importers Hydrogen offers a potential to reduce their import needs and build some energy security. It also means they can outbuild renewables using supply / demand mismatches to generate and use Hydrogen.

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

China Grabs Control Of LNG Infrastructure In Move To Bolster Energy Security

By Haley Zaremba - Dec 26, 2020, 4:00 PM CST

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/China-Grabs-Control-Of-LNG-Infrastructure-In-Move-To-Bolster-Energy-Security.html

In recent months China has earned itself a prime spot in lots of energy headlines thanks to President Xi Jinping’s ambitious carbon curbing and clean energy goals. China is currently the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitter by a huge margin--its emissions are almost double that of the next runner up, the United States. It’s therefore huge news and a ray of hope for all of us Earthlings that Beijing has announced that it will be reaching peak emissions in just ten years and then bringing its currently considerable carbon footprint all the way down to zero by just 2060. This is no small feat.

While this is great news for the climate and has been some truly excellent PR for China and President Xi’s administration, this development was largely unmotivated by climate concerns. China’s decision to double down on renewable energy has far more to do with energy security--one of Beijing’s primary concerns. China’s voracious appetite for energy has so far been met with huge volumes of foreign energy imports, and China is doing everything in its power to wean itself off of foreign fossil fuels and become an energy producing giant in its own right. So far that has involved making aggressive moves into largely undeveloped foreign energy markets, ramping up coal production abroad where the emissions will not be attributed to China but to the countries where China is now operating, and big inversions into nuclear energy.

Now, just this week, China has revealed the newest phase in its energy security strategy, and it involves a new state-owned and -run pipeline buying out a huge chunk of the assets owned by Kunlun Energy Co., the country's biggest pipeline company. “China’s pipeline network behemoth inked a $6.3 billion asset purchase in the latest step to bolster the nation’s energy security and break down market barriers,” World Oil reported this week.

Kunlun shares received a huge bump after the news came out that the company would be selling a whopping 60% stake in a natural gas pipeline located in beijing and an even heftier 75% stake in its liquefied natural gas subsidiary company Dalian for a 40.9 billion yuan price tag. The buyer is China’s brand new state-owned firm aptly called PipeChina, which began operations in October. Kunlun, too, is the subsidiary of a state-owned energy company. It exists under the umbrella of PetroChina Co., the majority owner of a Beijing pipeline and other key LNG transport infrastructure. 

“China Oil & Gas Pipeline Network Corp. is part of an effort by President Xi Jinping’s government to consolidate the nation’s major pipelines and other midstream facilities into a single firm, intended to boost competition among drillers and downstream oil and gas sellers,” World Oil elaborated. 

Even before these developments, China was on track to reach record LNG imports in the coming year. In September, Reuters reported that Chinese LNG imports were projected to grow 10%, with the nations total gas use expected to expand 4-6% this year even as the rest of the world sees its natural gas markets shrink. “China is the only major bright spot on the world gas market, where demand is set to fall by about 4% as the global economy contracts due to coronavirus lockdowns,” read the report. At this rate China will unseat Japan as the global leader of LNG imports in just two years.

While it's unlikely that China will be able to replace these imports with domestically produced energy in the short term, this latest move by President Xi to consolidate China’s pipeline infrastructure will allow his administration to bolster their control of the industry and contribute to Beijing’s long-term energy security goals. 

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com 

 

[Coffeeguyzz + 454]

If anyone chose to spend about one hour or so learn of the natgas production status of several now-producing countries, a few stark implications might kinda 'jump out' from the computer screens.

Thailand, the PI, Malaysia and Indonesia have declining production, coupled with rising domestic demand.

Likewise, India, Pakistan and even Algeria have spotty - or declining - natgas output that coincides with ongoing consumption levels that are increasing.

 

Several of the larger upstream Appalachian Basin operators now claim to have 'all in' costs (exclusive of debt repayments) of ~$1.80/$1.90/mmbtu to produce and transport  product. (Pretty astonishing numbers.) 

With both variable and fixed US LNG landed prices at under $5/mmbtu (title transfer at sea) - using Henry Hub at ~$2.75 - do not be surprised to see a huge upsurge in Financial Investment Decisions in 2021 for several US LNG plants.

The ongoing success in rapid construction of the modular Calcasieu Pass plant, along with the expected quick buildout of the modular Costa Azul plant will further incentivize positive funding decisions.

When both the Crib Point and Port Kembla projects are pushing for online status toot sweet, one should recognize that this changing global energy paradigm is rapidly shifting to favor US natgas production.

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Natgas Plunges 10% On "Extremely Bearish" Warmer January Forecast

by Tyler Durden

Monday, Dec 28, 2020 - 12:25

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/natgas-plunges-10-extremely-bearish-warmer-january-forecast

Natural gas futures are down more than 10% on Monday morning following new weather models that suggest warmer weather is ahead.

Meteorologists at BAMWX show one model that suggests temperature anomalies for much of the country could be well above average for early January. 

For the next two weeks, heating degree days for US-Lower 48 will be below trend, suggesting warmer temperatures and a decline in energy use to heat homes.

"I suspect, however, the forecast for January came out extremely bearish over the weekend, triggering the gap opening, but we'll learn more about that on Monday. The big takeaway this week is likely to be that next week's government report is going to show an average draw. Remember that professionals look at least two weeks ahead," said FX Empire. 

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Was the Sell-off ‘Too Bearish” for This Time of Year?

James Hyerczyk

5 hours ago (Dec 29, 2020 9:07 AM GMT) - Tuesday

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-6-691195

 

Bespoke doesn’t see much risk/reward in being bearish, though it advised caution until the market clears the January contract’s expiration on Tuesday

Natural gas futures are edging higher early Tuesday following yesterday’s gap lower opening on both the daily and weekly charts. The early move can best be described as a low-volume, weak attempt at a dead cat bounce.

Prices tumbled from the get-go on Monday as weather forecasts “failed miserably” over the weekend, shedding a hefty amount of demand from the 15-day outlook, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) reported.

At 09:15 GMT, February natural gas futures are trading $2.345, up $0.019 or +0.82%.

Spot gas prices also tumbled, with widespread losses of 30.0 cents or more seen across the United States, according to NGI. NGI’s Spot Gas National Average fell 24.5 cents to $2.535.

What Triggered the Selling?

Over the long holiday weekend, the European weather models erased more than 25 heating degree days from the long-range outlook, and the American model also backed off the projected demand in the early part of January.

The Global Forecast System (GFS) lost 12 heating degree days (HDD), while the European model lost a heftier 25-plus HDDs.

NatGasWeather’s Explanation

“What makes the coming pattern strongly bearish is the eight-to-15 day period favors mild conditions over most of the U.S. with continued only minor bouts of subfreezing temperatures into the northern U.S.,” NatGasWeather said.

NGW expects the period is now “too bearish” and will likely add demand in time, “although it would need to be a hefty amount” in order to flip bearish weather sentiment to bullish, which isn’t expected. “We continue to look to January 10-13 as the next best opportunity for more impressive/widespread cold.”

Bespoke Weather Services’ Outlook

Bespoke Weather Services said until the warmer momentum halts, it is difficult to say where a price bottom may be. There is still a healthy block expected to form by the middle third of January, aided by a strong warming in the polar stratosphere, according to the forecaster. However, the Pacific flow needs to slow down for this to send temperatures materially colder.

“That is something that may happen in the back half of the month, enough to at least bring back some variability, but confidence is lower after seeing such a huge model bust over the last several days,” Bespoke said.

Short-Term Outlook

The sell-off was impressive, but I don’t think this is the kind of move that has much more downside potential unless the forecasts for January 15 to February 1 show an unusual warming pattern.

Bespoke doesn’t see much risk/reward in being bearish, though it advised caution until the market clears the January contract’s expiration on Tuesday, as well as the holiday period, so that it can see how balances shape up once clear of any holiday impact.

Even the guys at NatGasWeather saw the move as “too bearish”.

The actual risk is in playing the long side ahead of the long holiday weekend.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Whitney George, president of Sprott Inc. was interviewed on Kitco News recently.

Sprott's specialized investment products include innovative physical bullion trusts, managed equities, mining ETFs, as well as private equity and debt strategies. We also partner with natural resource companies to help meet their capital needs through our brokerage and resource lending activities.

On his forward outlook of different sectors and where to allocate investments, Whitney George sees the Natural Gas sector as a good buy with longterm growth potentials.

QUEUED VIDEO

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

PetroChina Looks To Double Shale Gas Output By 2025

By Irina Slav - Dec 30, 2020, 11:00 AM CST

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/PetroChina-Looks-To-Double-Shale-Gas-Output-By-2025.html

State energy giant PetroChina plans to increase the natural gas output from its shale operations in the Sichuan province twofold to over 22 billion cubic meters in the next five years, Reuters reported, citing state Chinese media.

China has been looking to boost domestic natural gas production in the face of rising demand and with it, rising dependence on imports. Most recently, Beijing eased restrictions on foreign companies to invest in the country’s gas industry and offered subsidies for natural gas developments.

The incentives include extending the period for exploration for the companies to five from three years, and allowing foreign oil and gas firms to directly operate in the country as long as they have an office registered in China. 

China has abundant shale gas reserves, but the geology is tricky, making the development of these reserves challenging. Despite the challenges, PetroChina alone last year announced new additions of almost 741 billion cubic meters to its shale gas reserves in the Sichuan province.

This year, PetroChina drilled more than 240 new wells in Sichuan, which boosted its daily gas production in the province by 40 percent. Earlier this month, the state major announced a new shale gas discovery in the Xinjiang province, with reserves estimated at more than 100 billion cubic meters.

The other state energy major, Sinopec, also has ambitious plans for natural gas, expecting total output of 30 billion cubic meters this year, to rise to 40 billion cubc meters by 2023, representing half of the company’s total hydrocarbons production.

Boosting domestic gas production, including from shale deposits, has become essential for China as it has seen its gas imports rise from 15 percent of supply in 2010 to as much as 45 percent in 2018. Thanks to its efforts in this respect, Rystad Energy recently reported that China will become the top market for seismic exploration onshore over the next two years, while exploration activity remains subdued elsewhere in the world.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Why President Biden Won’t Be Bad For Natural Gas

By Irina Slav - Jan 01, 2021, 4:00 PM CST

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Why-President-Biden-Wont-Be-Bad-For-Natural-Gas.html

The U.S. natural gas industry seems to have a brighter future than its oil sister under a Biden administration, even though the president-elect has made a pledge to push an ambitious emissions-cutting agenda during his term, aiming for a net zero electricity sector by 2035 and net zero economy by 2050. According to industry sources, the sharp rise in investor appetite for environmental, social and governance investments will not affect the natural gas space too much, with opportunities opening up for a consolidation of the sector, Mergermarket reported for Forbes this week.

A consolidation is already underway in the oil sector, prompted by the latest news from the pandemic front, with vaccines widely seen as a solution to the demand loss problem that has made some smaller players in the field attractive for buyers.

While oil is falling out of favor fast with the new breed of environmentally conscious investors, natural gas will simply be indispensable for the observable future to provide the reliability of electricity supply that solar and wind simply cannot offer at this point.

Industry advisers point to California’s blackouts as a case in point here: the state that leads in renewable power also leads in grid unreliability. While some state administration officials have defended the shift to renewables saying it has nothing to do with the increased risk of blackouts, others have blamed the rush to go renewable for the blackouts.

Reliability of power supply is what many experts argue will ensure the long-term future of natural gas even in a world that is setting increasingly ambitious climate change fighting goals for itself. Solar and wind only produce power intermittently and they need energy storage to become as reliable as fossil fuels. However, storage technology needs to advance a lot from current levels, which can only provide storage for a couple of hours, in case of a sudden outage, for example. 

Gas, on the other hand, is not intermittent and the United States has abundant supplies of it, especially in the shale plays. Thanks to forecasts for a rebound in demand for natural gas, especially overseas, producers have been ramping up their output, while still keeping a cap on oil production.

“Demand has remained pretty robust. Supply has been starved for capital,” the chief executive of energy investment firm Banpu Kalnin Ventures told Reuters last month. The Thailand-listed company recently acquired the natural gas assets of Devon Energy.

The positive sentiment on natural gas goes beyond the energy industry, too. A recent Deloitte survey revealed that most executives believed natural gas had an essential role to play in the world’s energy transition, Natural Gas Intelligence reported, noting the survey also suggested this role will be reduced or evolving as gas is pitted against renewables. 

Essential it may well be but for now, natural gas is trapped between the power industry’s “decarbonization strategy of focusing on low-carbon fuels and the broader impetus to replace gas with renewables for electricity generation,” Deloitte noted in the survey.

“Other challenges include the ongoing problem of fugitive methane emissions associated with gas, as well as the growing electrification of the broader energy system.”

The methane issue has been garnering growing attention from various stakeholders and the energy industry has been doing a lot more to reduce emissions. In fact, this year U.S. oil producers managed to capture a record amount of associated gas.

The electrification issue, on the other hand, may well turn into an opportunity for more natural gas demand if renewables’ inherent disadvantages prevent them from meeting this additional demand for electricity.

Emission-cutting targets are all well and good until the actual fact that the world’s energy demand is growing sinks in. Solar and wind cannot meet this growing demand on their own for the abovementioned intermittency reason as well as because even in the Sahara, the sun does not shine 24/7 and even in the North Sea there may be windless days. Until these problems are solved, the world will continue to need fossil fuels and natural gas is the best placed among them to fit in with the transition to a less fossil-fuel intense energy sector.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

[Boat + 1,323]

On 12/19/2020 at 12:38 AM, ronwagn said:

I am an advocate of increased use of natural gas and that has a great deal of opposition from the Great Reset, Greenie, Climate Change extremists. They are very wealthy and want to become more wealthy by forcing the average person to not use clean, abundant, inexpensive natural gas, or diesel and gasoline. 

The solution is to promote natural gas use! Use for vehicles of all kinds including ships, trucks, cars, buses, trains, heavy equipment etc. That is cleaner and less expensive than the options IMHO. I do not like the looks of wind turbines or solar panels. They require maintenance and create their own pollution. 

The Russians talked Europe out of useing their own natural gas and now are making great profits from their success. They use virtually no "renewables" and must have a great time laughing at us as the Chinese Communists Party does while they burn coal and build more coal plants around the world.  The Great Reset will bury the USA if we let the idiots here run the show. 

I’m glad your finally respecting some of the policies for nat gas that were pushed by the Paris agreement, the new world order and Obama. Cleaner shipping is a win win for you new Republican greenies along with a new market for nat gas. Obama gave Tesla 430 million seed money for the electric car which will cut into oils market but boost renewables and nat gas. Will you finally bow and pay homage to the black president who is still changing our future? But in 30 years when renewables kill nat gas will you flip back to hate?

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

13 hours ago, Boat said:

I’m glad your finally respecting some of the policies for nat gas that were pushed by the Paris agreement, the new world order and Obama.

Good for you Boat.  Klaus Schwab, Bill Gates, the Rockefellers, the Rothchilds, and the rest of the Elite Technocratic Club love hearing that as they push their enslavement of all mankind.  There is nothing like world dictators who know what is best for you.  By the wya, I am sure that you know Bill Gates has his plans fo geo-engineering the skies (chemtrails) in order to stop global warming despite the well-known fact that we are at a solar minimum cycle of the sun and things are on a cooling trend.  There have been a number of stories about Bill Gates and his sky covering plan.  Leave it to your new world rulers to mandate and monitor every individual's actions.  I'm sure that you know these characters love Eugenics, because they have often cited the virtues of that mindset.  Maybe you are on their list. 

[Boat + 1,323]

41 minutes ago, Tom Nolan said:

Good for you Boat.  Klaus Schwab, Bill Gates, the Rockefellers, the Rothchilds, and the rest of the Elite Technocratic Club love hearing that as they push their enslavement of all mankind.  There is nothing like world dictators who know what is best for you.  By the wya, I am sure that you know Bill Gates has his plans fo geo-engineering the skies (chemtrails) in order to stop global warming despite the well-known fact that we are at a solar minimum cycle of the sun and things are on a cooling trend.  There have been a number of stories about Bill Gates and his sky covering plan.  Leave it to your new world rulers to mandate and monitor every individual's actions.  I'm sure that you know these characters love Eugenics, because they have often cited the virtues of that mindset.  Maybe you are on their list. 

Actually a tech guru from Microsoft came up with that idea like 15 years ago. And of course it’s just an idea. As far as I know there hasn’t been a big push for investment let alone legislative agreement from a country or group of countries. Gates is investing in small nuclear which is great if it solves waste and is cost competitive with renewables and nat gas. Your conspiracy theories are just that. 
You know the new international law/NWO governing the end of bunker fuels opens up a huge new market for nat gas. So goods ship cleaner and you think the world is being controlled. That’s weird dude. It’s just a common sense solution that gets rid of a lot of pollution in ports. 

Edited January 2, 2021 by Boat

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Since autumn, Turkey has been buying back record volumes of Russian gas. This is due to the fact that it is price-related to oil prices with a 6-month lag. Russian gas was expensive for the Turks in the first half of the year, now it has become cheap again.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/russian-gas-flows-to-europe-remain-at-2020-highs-in-november/

Please also do not ignore the sharp depreciation of the Turkish lira in the past 5 years as a result of Erdogan's economic policy and his very aggressive foreign policy.

Considering that the lira against the dollar has devalued from 3 lira per dollar in 2016 to 7.5 lira per dollar for Turkey today, now any gas is simply rather expensive considering the national currency rate fluctuations.

https://stooq.com/q/?s=usdtry

This is also one of Gazprom's last such contracts tied directly to the oil price.

For quite a few years in Europe Gazprom has either been switching to hybrid contracts tied to the oil price and the spot price of gas on the TTF Rotterdam or related only to the gas spot prices on the TTF.

https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-seeks-gas-discount-and-flexible-contracts-161262

 The Turkish contract is probably one of the last contracts from the previous gas era tied directly to oil price.

Last time I checked that average Gazprom price in October 2020 was something about 140-150 $ per 1.000 m3. In November and December taking under consideration now TTF spot price is over 230 $ Gazprom probably also takes higher price in long term contracts

Edited January 2, 2021 by Tomasz

[ronwagn + 6,290]

17 hours ago, Boat said:

I’m glad your finally respecting some of the policies for nat gas that were pushed by the Paris agreement, the new world order and Obama. Cleaner shipping is a win win for you new Republican greenies along with a new market for nat gas. Obama gave Tesla 430 million seed money for the electric car which will cut into oils market but boost renewables and nat gas. Will you finally bow and pay homage to the black president who is still changing our future? But in 30 years when renewables kill nat gas will you flip back to hate?

Obama didn't give anyone any money for Tesla. We the people were forced to do that. Now we are forced to continue investing in them. I never appreciate anything that is forced on me without my consent. Obama was the worst president in my lifetime and has caused the problems we are now facing with increased racial and all sorts of other divisiveness!

See: Part Two of the Obama Administration Scandals

https://docs.google.com/document/d/11axnqv_b3L2k9CD6HWNMwrdIECJZSxowxjO4RIc-rbE/edit

Edited January 3, 2021 by ronwagn
spelling

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

The Russian Energy Giant Mining Bitcoin With Virtually Free Energy

By Haley Zaremba - Jan 03, 2021, 2:00 PM CST

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Russian-Energy-Giant-Mining-Bitcoin-With-Virtually-Free-Energy.html

EXCERPT

...Gazpromneft recently began a cryptocurrency mining operation based in one of its Siberian oil drilling sites, “unlocking the power of Russia’s oil and gas resources for the needs of bitcoin mining,” Yahoo! Finance reported this week. In slightly better news for Bitcoin’s carbon footprint, Russia’s new mining operation will be powered by natural gas from the oil field, located in the Khanty-Mansiysk region of northwestern Siberia, which has its own power plant to convert the gas into electricity for Bitcoin production. And there is another silver (and green) lining to this model: “The CO2 that gets freed during the oil drilling is normally a liability for oil companies as they have to burn it into the atmosphere, which results in fines. However, there are ways to utilize it instead of wasting it, and electricity generation is one of them,” Yahoo! Finance reports.

The location of the new Russian Bitcoin farm also means that the costs of the operation will be relatively low. Instead of paying a premium to use energy from the grid, locating the cryptocurrency mining on-site at an oil field means that a steady supply of natural gas is virtually free....

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Weekly Forecast – 10-14 Day Forecast Drives the Volatility; Sets the Weekly Tone

Technical factors will also play a role in the price action, given the formation of a closing price reversal bottom on the weekly chart. 

James Hyerczyk

Jan 03, 2021 12:30 PM GMT

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-weekly-forecast-10-14-day-forecast-drives-the-volatility-sets-the-weekly-tone-691861

Natural gas traders will be watching the opening on Monday with great interest especially after last week’s gap lower opening. Of particular interest will be how traders react to the filling of the gap on Friday.

The market actually closed on Friday slightly above its finish on December 24 which started it all. The long-holiday weekend and new updates to the 10 to 14 day forecasts will be the catalysts that likely trigger a gap higher opening or another gap lower start.

Last week, February natural gas futures settled at $2.539, up $0.027 or +1.07%. The low of the week was $2.263.

Technical factors will also play a role in the price action, given the formation of a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom on the weekly chart.

Taking out last week’s high at $2.547 will confirm the chart pattern. This could launch the start of a 2 to 3 week rally if the buying volume is strong. We’re likely to see a shorter-term rally if the move is fueled by mostly short-covering. The best scenario for the bulls will be a combination of aggressive speculative buying and short-covering.

If there is no follow-through to the upside and the market gaps lower again then look for a retest of last week’s low at $2.263. We could even see the selling extend beyond the low, but just like last week, shorting weakness will be a dangerous proposition.

US Energy Information Administration Weekly Storage Report

Thursday’s EIA weekly storage report surprised to the downside for the second week in a row. The government report showed a much smaller-than-expected 114 Bcf withdrawal from stocks for the week-ending December 25.

Ahead of the report, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) wrote, a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts showed an unusually wide range of withdrawal estimates from as low as 88 Bcf to as large as 150 Bcf, with a median of 126 Bcf.

A Wall Street Journal poll showed estimates within that same range, with an average of 129 Bcf. A Reuters poll of 16 market participants showed withdrawals as low as 85 Bcf, but the median was near those of other surveys, at 125 Bcf. NGI pegged the pull at 124 Bcf.

Last year, the EIA recorded an 87 Bcf draw for the similar week, while the five-year average is a 102 Bcf draw.

Total working gas in storage fell to 3,460 Bcf, which is still 251 Bcf above year-ago levels and 206 Bcf above the five-year average.

Weekly Forecast

The charts indicate the short-term direction of the February natural gas market this week will be determined by trader reaction to a 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at $2.519 to $2.579.

Look for an upside bias on a sustained move over $2.579, which could put a recent top at $2.775 back on the radar, but the downside bias will resume on a sustained move under $2.519.

Ahead of the weekend, NatGasWeather said the first half of January could be “quite bearish” with some areas in the Midwest and East seeing temperatures reach levels that are 10-25 degrees warmer than normal.

Nonetheless, the report was only worrisome enough to stop the rally. It did not lead to renewed selling pressure. Traders were likely willing to wait for the weekend reports before making their next trading decision.

Remember that professional traders are looking at forecasts 10-14 days out.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

CHART LIVE  https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

LNG Faces Tough Winter In Europe

By Viktor Katona - Jan 04, 2021, 11:00 AM CST

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/LNG-Faces-Tough-Winter-In-Europe.html

Making bold assertive statements is never a prudent strategy for any analyst, regardless of the topic to be examined. Risking the peril of not seeing the sudden twist behind the corner, a seemingly unavoidable assumption is to be put forward – this year is going to be much weaker for the European LNG market than was generally assumed. Moreover, the prime reason for LNG failing to repeat the all-time highs of the 2019/2020 winter season lies not with COVID-19 and its ramifications but with impressive competition between Europe’s pipeline suppliers between each other as well as between pipeline gas in general and LNG deliveries from other continents. With this, the battle for a European market share begins once again.  Graph 1. LNG Imports into Europe in 2017-2020 (million tons LNG per month).

[ARTICLE CONTINUES - See LINK]

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Natgas Futures Jump On Colder Weather Trends Over Next Ten Days

by Tyler Durden

Monday, Jan 04, 2021 - 13:25

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/natgas-futures-jump-colder-weather-trends-over-next-ten-days

Natgas February Nymex contracts jumped 3.5% Monday morning due to colder weather trends and increased heating demand forecasted for the next ten days. 

Bespoke Weather Services said since last week, weather models have shifted "materially colder" for parts of the US through mid-January. 

"While the 15-day period as a whole remains solidly warmer than normal, we have chipped away at a good deal of the warmth, and it is important, in our view, to note that the colder changes are focused over the next eight to 10 days," Bespoke said. "This signals risk that models toward mid-month and beyond could again be too warm."

US Temperature deviations through mid-month show large swaths of the country, at times, will record colder than average temperatures. 

Colder temperatures will increase energy demand to heat a structure, shown in the chart below: 

With colder weather ahead, Refinitiv data estimates natgas demand, including exports, would rise from 121.1 billion cubic feet per day this week to 126.1 billion cubic feet per day next week.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

 

Honestly, what is happening on the commodity market is crazy.

In May, LNG prices for Asia fell to about $ 1-2 per mbbtu.

Bloomberg today reports that one of the traders ordered LNG delivery to Japan for $ 20.80 per mbbtu.

Quote

Trafigura purchased an LNG cargo from Gunvor for $20.80/mmbtu (!) for Feb. 4-8 delivery to South Korea via the Platts Market on Close The deal tops JKM's record high price of $20.20 from Feb. 14, 2014

It broke away completely from any realities and supply demand balance.

Both the price in May and the price on January 5 cargo for the Asian market.

 

Edited January 5, 2021 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

EU #natgas stocks were down 127 bcf last week to 3,421 bcf. Annual storage deficit has expanded to -491 bcf. TTF price may rise even higher.... #LNG #ONGT

 

[NickW + 2,714]

On 1/3/2021 at 12:23 AM, ronwagn said:

Obama didn't give anyone any money for Tesla. We the people were forced to do that. Now we are forced to continue investing in them. I never appreciate anything that is forced on me without my consent. Obama was the worst president in my lifetime and has caused the problems we are now facing with increased racial and all sorts of other divisiveness!

See: Part Two of the Obama Administration Scandals

https://docs.google.com/document/d/11axnqv_b3L2k9CD6HWNMwrdIECJZSxowxjO4RIc-rbE/edit

The Big 3 auto manufacturers got an $80 billion bailout in 2009-10. Did you object to that with the same vigour? 

[NickW + 2,714]

18 hours ago, Tom Nolan said:

LNG Faces Tough Winter In Europe

By Viktor Katona - Jan 04, 2021, 11:00 AM CST

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/LNG-Faces-Tough-Winter-In-Europe.html

Making bold assertive statements is never a prudent strategy for any analyst, regardless of the topic to be examined. Risking the peril of not seeing the sudden twist behind the corner, a seemingly unavoidable assumption is to be put forward – this year is going to be much weaker for the European LNG market than was generally assumed. Moreover, the prime reason for LNG failing to repeat the all-time highs of the 2019/2020 winter season lies not with COVID-19 and its ramifications but with impressive competition between Europe’s pipeline suppliers between each other as well as between pipeline gas in general and LNG deliveries from other continents. With this, the battle for a European market share begins once again.  Graph 1. LNG Imports into Europe in 2017-2020 (million tons LNG per month).

[ARTICLE CONTINUES - See LINK]

Europe is having a cold winter so imports might be on the up over winter and spring time assuming the economy hasn't completely collapsed. However wind spends have been high and that does curtail gas usage in electricity generation. 

Re cold winter I have a smart meter for our home gas use and I can look up daily consumption. In mild winter weather we use 60-70 kwh a day of gas. Currently using 100-110 in temperatures just above 0. Will be interesting to see what happens if we get a severe freeze. 

[NickW + 2,714]

On 12/22/2020 at 1:18 AM, ronwagn said:

Yes and no. They have had hydro since before Dr. Zhivago. It is not new tech. It is green, but required no wind or solar. It is also not as reliable since there are droughts. I am not criticizing their wise decision to not use solar and wind when they have natural gas. I am calling out their hypocrisy in propagandizing against fracking by others. 

Sorry to disappoint but Russia is going down the wind and solar path. As the cost of wind and solar tech has fallen its made deployment more viable aided by relatively low labour costs. 

Russia's first commercial wind farm online | Windpower Monthly

A 60 MW wind farm in Northern Russia by 2020 – Eurasia Network

Five wind projects in Russia to be powered by Vestas turbines (nsenergybusiness.com)

Five solar projects planned in Russian Far East – pv magazine International (pv-magazine.com)

Hevel plans Russia's largest solar-plus-storage system | Energy Storage News (energy-storage.news)

 

Infact 100km2 of floating solar on the Caspian sea would generate about 2000 Twh. Before you say anything Azerbijan are already building pilot plants

Hevel plans Russia's largest solar-plus-storage system | Energy Storage News (energy-storage.news)

Edited January 5, 2021 by NickW

[ronwagn + 6,290]

7 hours ago, NickW said:

The Big 3 auto manufacturers got an $80 billion bailout in 2009-10. Did you object to that with the same vigour? 

I did object and I objected to bailing out the banks.  I do object to electric car subsidies. Let them compete with natural gas vehicles on an even playing field. 

Edited January 5, 2021 by ronwagn