NickW + 2,714 NW January 19, 2021 16 hours ago, Tom Nolan said: Grand Solar Minimum Tom Nolan here: I want to mention that I am long Natural Gas this year. One factor is that we are in the beginning of the Grand Solar Minimum. In general terms we will see a cooler earth. Growing seasons will change in different regions. I first became aware of the Solar Minimum from Ice Age Farmer. If anyone keeps up with food commodities, or general events, this is a good source of news. https://www.youtube.com/c/IceAgeFarmer/featured WEBSITE - https://www.iceagefarmer.com/ EXCERPTS Our sun is reaching the end of it's normal 11 year cycle and is now approaching a period of minimum solar activity. This one's being dubbed the Grand Solar Minimum. Some say it's the real cause of climate change and that it's going to wreak havoc with our weather systems for years to come, possibly even tipping us into a mini ice age. 16 minutes An eleven year cycle is going to tip us into a mini ice age? We have had about 18 of these cycles since greenhouse gas properties were first theorised.......... 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN January 20, 2021 Natgas Plunges 5% On New Weather Models Forecasting Milder Temps https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/natgas-plunges-5-new-weather-models-forecasting-milder-temps As soon as Goldman Sachs gets bullish on natural gas, new weather models are forecasting warmer weather trends for the next two weeks. As a result, NYMEX Henry Hub natgas February futures have plunged 5% Tuesday morning. The plunge in natgas futures come on milder forecasts for the US, which means heating demand will wane over the next two weeks than previously expected. "That decline came even though liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports remained near record levels and last week's storage draw was slightly bigger than expected," said Investing.com's Ajay Kedia. Kedia said, "US natural gas production and demand will drop in 2021 as the economic fallout from coronavirus lockdowns continues." Meteorologists at BAMWX expanded more on the new weather models that forecast warmer weather trends for the US through the end of the month. They tweeted, "A look at what natgas was expecting FRI for week 2 vs the latest data rolled into the 5-12 day period. EPS lost 17 HDDs in that period GEFS lost 11.3 HDDs in that period BAM had to lower HDDs 3 points in that period (our FRI week 2 shown)." From the Southwest to Mid-Atlantic, temps will be slightly above average through the end of the month. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN January 20, 2021 What’s Next For Very Volatile Natural Gas Markets By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 20, 2021, 12:00 PM CST https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Whats-Next-For-Very-Volatile-Natural-Gas-Markets.html Last week’s record-high spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia may not hold for long, but the surge could be a sign of what the future holds for natural gas prices globally. The growing LNG trade and the growing importance of LNG on the global gas markets have upended the way part of global gas supply is traded and has made regional gas markets more interconnected. When spot LNG prices rally in north Asia, LNG sellers rush to send cargoes there, leaving fewer LNG supply going to Europe, where natural gas prices rise in a generally tighter market. Gas Markets Increasingly Interconnected This happened at the start of 2021, when surging spot LNG prices in Asia incentivized cargoes going to the region, instead of to Europe, and sent UK prompt wholesale gas prices to a two-year high amid unusually freezing temperatures across Britain. The cold snap raised gas demand in the UK, but fewer LNG arrivals tightened the market, sending wholesale gas prices surging. The cold spell with temperatures below seasonal norms in most of the northern hemisphere, from Madrid to Tokyo, was the main culprit for soaring spot LNG prices. Yet, the rally also showed that regional gas prices are no longer isolated within their respective region. These days with rising LNG trade globally, when Asia sneezes, Europe catches a cold. To be sure, most of the LNG traded globally is under long-term contracts linked to oil prices. But this leaves the spot LNG market more vulnerable to price volatility because of the smaller traded volumes and reduced flexibility to respond to market imbalances compared to other energy commodities, as Financial Times’ Energy Editor David Sheppard notes. Higher Gas Prices Volatility Could Lie Ahead While last week’s all-time high spot LNG prices in Asia will not last with the coming of warmer weather, the price spike could be a sign of what’s coming for global gas and LNG markets—higher volatility and generally, higher gas prices. “While contract gas prices have been low and relatively stable in recent years, this is unlikely to last,” Bruce Robertson, Energy Finance Analyst, Gas/LNG, at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), said in a briefing note last week. “With lower levels of drilling, financial instability in the oil and gas industry, and low levels of industry investment, it is likely that a new era of higher prices and more volatility is upon us,” Robertson added. Reduced drilling in the United States—which is now a major LNG exporter accounting for most of the increased LNG export capacity—and the poor financial state of many oil and gas companies operating in America could unsettle the relative stability of the past three years of the Henry Hub gas prices, the U.S. benchmark, which is the reference to calculate the price of U.S. LNG exports, Robertson notes. “We may be coming to the end of an era of stable gas prices and the effects of this will reverberate globally as the U.S. is now a major exporter,” the analyst said. The more volatile and higher gas prices could jeopardize as much as US$50 billion of gas-fired power projects in emerging South Asia LNG markets Pakistan, Vietnam, and Bangladesh, according to Robertson. IEEFA sees lower investment and reduced drilling activity leading to price spikes and volatility at a higher level than in the last three years. “Gas customers globally can expect an unpredictable time ahead with substantially higher prices being a distinct possibility,” Robertson wrote in the note. LNG Trade Will Only Grow In Coming Years As LNG trade continues to grow, short-term and spot LNG contracts have increased as a share of global LNG flows. Even the long-term LNG contracts are indexed to the price of oil, which, history has shown time and again, is also a highly volatile commodity. Despite the pandemic, LNG trade increased in 2020 compared to 2019, with volumes rising by 3 percent year over year in the first nine months of 2020, according to the first Annual Short Term Gas Market Report 2020 of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), an organization of countries representing 60 percent of the world’s LNG exports and including major gas exporters such as Russia and Qatar. Spot and short-term LNG trade accounted for 34 percent of global LNG trade in 2019, up from a 31-percent share in 2018, GECF said. “The higher share was driven by the increasing flexible LNG volumes from the U.S. and an uptick in LNG volumes traded by traders and portfolio players,” GECF says, noting that spot and short-term LNG trade is expected to increase further, driven by increasing flexible volumes from the United States. The recent record-high spot LNG prices in Asia may have been just a short-lived blip as a result of a ‘perfect storm’ on the market, but growing LNG trade, more flexible contracts, and increasingly interlinked regional markets could put an end to the recent relative stability of global gas prices. By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Coffeeguyzz + 454 GM January 20, 2021 The often overlooked Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) are on track to continue increasing their influence on the overall natgas market with the inaugural lifting of an ethane cargo from the Orbit Terminal on the maiden voyage of the Seri Everest. At 911,000 barrels of liquid ethane - a new world record - this event comes less than 5 years after seaborne shipment of liquefied ethane was essentially introduced as a method of transporting large volumes of this product. (Previously, only small barge-sized shipments took place primarily in the Baltic region). The original 'Dragon ships' were 1/4 the size at ~250,000 barrels, lifting product out of Marcus Hook. The new crackers in China and India will be joined by the massive crackers and Propane Dehydrogenation Units coming online from Borealis and INEOS in the Antwerp area starting next year. Using propane and/or ethane for raw feedstock is MUCH cheaper than naptha, which is mainly derived from oil refining. Widely under reported is the fact that US shale has an abundance of NGL sub components (>60% in many areas) which is not the norm for most large, conventional resources of natgas. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gerry Maddoux + 3,627 GM January 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, Coffeeguyzz said: Widely under reported is the fact that US shale has an abundance of NGL sub components (>60% in many areas) which is not the norm for most large, conventional resources of natgas. 60% ethane? In the Bakken? Or Niobrara? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eyes Wide Open + 3,555 January 20, 2021 (edited) Bakken im quite sure, upper northern part has quite a bit of gas. https://www.peakoil.net/headline-news/gas-flaring-at-bakken-and-eagle-ford Edited January 20, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Coffeeguyzz + 454 GM January 21, 2021 (edited) Mr. Maddoux The 60% NGL figure is total liquids (ethane, propane, butane, pentanes) in the gas stream. Balance being methane. According to Antero - second largest NGL producer with >200,000 bbld - ethane is about 50% of their NGL production. They only recover about 2/3 of the ethane and reject the rest back into the gas stream. There are excellent graphics available from Antero's Investor Presentations describing this. Huge areas in the Appalachian Basin - primarily Soutwest Pennsylvania and the Marcellus in West Virginia - produce these products, although SCOOP/STACK, the Niobrara, and the Permian also have a lot of rich gas. The Bakken is about 15% natgas (85% oil), with ethane output now about 100,000 bbld (total daily natgas production is near 3 Bcfd according to latest Director's Cut). The fact that associated gas - along with the liquids sub components - has been somewhat of an unwanted product to many is in the process of shifting. As of this posting, pentane/natural gasoline is $1.20/gallon ... (50 bucks/barrel). Propane and butane are ~90 cents/gallon (~$37/barrel). Ethane is fetching ~24 cents/gallon ($10/barrel). As operators continue to drive down production and operating costs (now claimed to be in the $1.80/$1.90 per mmbtu range for big AB producers), coincident with obtaining higher revenues from their NGLs, the current dynamics look to prompt more US produced methane ... a growing portion of which will be exported as competitively priced LNG. Edited January 21, 2021 by Coffeeguyzz 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN January 21, 2021 Why Natural Gas Producers Are Betting Big On Hydrogen By Alex Kimani - Jan 21, 2021, 11:00 AM CST https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Why-Natural-Gas-Producers-Are-Betting-Big-On-Hydrogen.html EXCERPTS ... But now, Wall Street believes that the hydrogen fuel economy has finally reached a tipping point, and hydrogen could soon develop into a globally-traded energy source, just like oil and gas. London–based global information provider IHS Markit has reported that a growing number of oil, automotive, and other companies have been proactively investing in hydrogen technologies. The analyst says that countries across the globe are investing in hydrogen either as a tool to meet ambitious decarbonization goals or an opportunity for export... ...More importantly, zero-carbon hydrogen has recently been injected into a UK gas network for the first time in a groundbreaking trial that could help to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The 20% hydrogen and natural gas blend is being used to heat 100 homes and 30 faculty buildings at Keele University in Staffordshire. If successful, the project could be expanded to cover wider parts of the country and possibly be adopted by other countries. Natural gas remains the most dominant fuel source in the U.S. electricity generation mix, but maybe not for much longer... .. In fact, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), solar and wind power generation are now fully competitive with fossil fuel power plants, with the global weighted average levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for utility-scale solar PV cells having declined 75% to below USD 0.10/kWh since 2010. But solar costs are still declining. At an LCOE of $0.085/kWh for photovoltaic cells and $0.185/kWh for concentrating solar projects, solar power(utility-scale + residential rooftop) remains more expensive than other renewable sources, including hydro, onshore wind, geothermal, and bioenergy. However, this IEA prediction says solar power is about to become one of the cheapest, if not the cheapest, ways to generate electricity by 2025... ... On the other hand, cheap green hydrogen could quickly make natural gas irrelevant. Green hydrogen is hydrogen produced by the electrolysis of water using 100% renewable energy, thus making it a zero-carbon source. Unfortunately, less than one percent of the world's hydrogen production is of the green type, with the vast majority being derived from natural gas reforming. Indeed, 95% of the hydrogen produced in the United States is currently made by natural gas reforming i.e., gray hydrogen. The big problem here is that producing large amounts of green hydrogen requires massive amounts of renewable energy; For instance, the UK government's independent Climate Change Committee estimates that the country would need 30x its current offshore wind capacity in order to produce enough green hydrogen to replace all gas boilers in the UK. But that might be about to change. Last year, the world's green hydrogen leaders joined hands with an ambitious goal to drive a 50-fold scale-up in green hydrogen production over the next six years that could lead to a major fall in green hydrogen prices. The Green Hydrogen Catapult Initiative is a brainchild of founding partners Saudi clean energy group ACWA Power, Australian project developer CWP Renewables, European energy giants Iberdrola and Ørsted, Chinese wind turbine manufacturer Envision, Italian gas group Snam, and Yara, a Norwegian fertilizer producer. The companies hope to drive 25GW of green hydrogen production by 2026, a scale that could significantly drive down hydrogen costs to below $2/kg thus making the fuel source competitive with fossil fuels in power generation. The companies hope to drive 25GW of green hydrogen production by 2026, a scale that could significantly drive down hydrogen costs to below $2/kg thus making the fuel source competitive with fossil fuels in power generation. If successful, natural gas' days as the most dominant fuel source in the U.S. electricity generation mix could be numbered. By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN January 21, 2021 On 1/19/2021 at 12:19 AM, Tom Nolan said: Grand Solar Minimum Tom Nolan here: I want to mention that I am long Natural Gas this year. One factor is that we are in the beginning of the Grand Solar Minimum. In general terms we will see a cooler earth. Growing seasons will change in different regions. I first became aware of the Solar Minimum from Ice Age Farmer. If anyone keeps up with food commodities, or general events, this is a good source of news. https://www.youtube.com/c/IceAgeFarmer/featured WEBSITE - https://www.iceagefarmer.com/ EXCERPTS Our sun is reaching the end of it's normal 11 year cycle and is now approaching a period of minimum solar activity. This one's being dubbed the Grand Solar Minimum. Some say it's the real cause of climate change and that it's going to wreak havoc with our weather systems for years to come, possibly even tipping us into a mini ice age. 16 minutes I want to emphasize the word GRAND when Solar Minimum is used. GRAND is used to define a magnified Solar Minimum. During this decade, we can expect a much cooler planet as a whole. While we have always seen shifts in weather and climate, the GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM always brings with it some volatility in seasonal patterns, especially growing seasons, and even volcanic activity. In the following video from late May 2020, Christian cites Forbes and other MainStreamMedia sources which talk about the GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM. What we can expect for this coming decade is that MainStreamMedia will use the events of the GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM to shape narratives (propaganda) which will forward agendas by the Elite who control MainStreamMedia. (30 minutes) SOLAR LOCKDOWN: Plandemic & Grand Solar Minimum https://youtu.be/FqcL1JGlA2I In the above video, Christian mentions an earlier video of his as a reference. Here it is... (9 minute video) Grand Solar Minimum: Fake Science? 5min intro to Literature https://youtu.be/fSrnO2E-anQ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN January 22, 2021 Here's What NatGas Bulls Are Betting On In The Next Month Friday, Jan 22, 2021 - 5:45 https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/heres-what-needs-happen-old-man-winter-return Weather models continue to suggest warmer than average temperatures this month across much of the US from the South to the Northeast. Warmer trends could continue next month, pressuring natural gas prices as demand crumbles. However, natgas bulls are closely watching the Polar Vortex and Madden Julian Oscillation for any shifts. Kirk Hinz, meteorologist in charge at US-based BAMWX, wrote that "data continues to roll-forward warmer as we end the first month of 2021 and open up February." Hinz outlines what needs to happen for cooler risks to return for the central to the eastern US in the second half of the month. There's a risk, he said, if models don't shift, warmer weather trends could linger through the entire month. "The problem here is two-fold: the remnants of the Polar Vortex (and its cold source) will continue to be placed on the other side of the Planet, leaving warmer air potential over the US; secondly, the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) looks to hold in phases 4-6 ahead, all of which hold warmer risks for portions of the central to the eastern US for January into February," Hinz wrote. "We think these risks can linger through the first 1-2 weeks of February at least. We need to see a change in the pattern ahead for any *possible* cooler risks for the remnants of the Polar Vortex to work their way back over to the US and the MJO to migrate towards phases 7-8," he continued. https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/IMG_1870.jpg?itok=GFifaH9P "If these two things don't happen, these warmer risks can linger through the majority of the next month ahead," Hinz concluded. Goldman Sachs made a bold call last week and flipped from bearish to bullish on natgas. For Goldman to be right, and cooler risks to prevail, remnants of the Polar Vortex need to start pouring into the Northern Hemisphere. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN January 22, 2021 James Hyerczyk James Hyerczyk is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader. James began his career in Chicago in 1982 as a futures market analyst for floor traders at the Chicago Board of Trade and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and numerous brokerage firms, and have been providing quality analysis for professional traders for 36 years. Mr. Hyerczyk is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies, to futures, Forex and stocks. He provides educational services for investors looking to improve their analysis and trading skills. James is also the author of two books on technical analysis: Pattern, Price & Time: Using Gann Theory in Trading Systems and Pattern, Price & Time: Using Gann Theory in Technical Analysis. James has a B.A. in Business Administration from St. Xavier University and an M.S. in Financial Markets and Trading from the Illinois Institute of Technology. Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Sellers Looking Beyond EIA Data at Early February Warming The EIA on Friday is projected to report the steepest pull from stockpiles of the season. James Hyerczyk 3 hours ago (Jan 22, 2021 11:46 AM GMT) Friday https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-sellers-looking-beyond-eia-data-at-early-february-warming-695686 Natural gas futures are trading lower on Friday, hitting their lowest level since December 30 as forecasts calling for warmer temperatures chase more of the weaker bullish speculators out of the market. Sellers seem to be shrugging off predictions calling for a steep storage withdrawal in today’s weekly government report. That isn’t really a surprise since it represents stale data and most professional traders tend to look 10 to 15 days forward. At 11:24 GMT, March natural gas futures are trading $2.442, down 0.055 or -2.20%. “Weather is king,” Bespoke Weather Services said, “and continued warmth will keep the market under pressure.” It Will Be Cold, but There Will Be No Severe Winter Freeze Let’s clarify the current weather outlook. According to Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI), “Weather models have shifted both colder and warmer at various points over the past few days, injecting variability into the mid-range outlook for heating demand. Broadly, however, earlier expectations for a severe winter freeze have eased.” “Forecasters continue to predict a solid surge of cold next week, though freezing temperatures now are not expected to extend as far as previously thought or last as long,” NGI wrote. NGI concluded, “Meteorologists have backed off polar vortex expectations, and a warming pattern is projected to return by early next month, impacting demand for gas-powered heating.” US Energy Information Administration Weekly Storage Report The EIA on Friday is projected to report the steepest pull from stockpiles of the season. NGI’s model predicted a 191 Bcf withdrawal for the week ended January 15. That would compare with a 97 Bcf pull recorded in the year-ago period and a five-year average withdrawal of 167 Bcf. A Bloomberg survey landed at a median expected pull of 175 Bcf, with projections ranging from decreases of 158 Bcf to 191 Bcf. A Reuters poll found estimates spanning withdrawals of 133 Bcf to 191 Bcf, with a median decrease of 178 Bcf. Bespoke estimated a 177 Bcf decline in storage. https://responsive.fxempire.com/v7/_fxempire_/2021/01/Daily-March-Natural-Gas-8.jpg?func=cover&q70&width=700 Daily Forecast The daily chart pattern indicates a bearish tone is developing early in the session. Look for the selling pressure to continue as long as the move can be sustained under $2.485. Overtaking $2.485 will indicate that sellers are lightening up but don’t expect a retracement to the upside unless buyers can sustain a rally over $2.552. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tomasz + 1,608 January 22, 2021 (edited) Quote Gazprom, in spite of sharply increased prices in Europe, does not increase the physical supply of gas to the EU, but rather lifts it from storage. The company also stopped selling gas on its electronic trading floor for delivery to Europe in the coming months, which keeps prices high in the spot market. The goal of such a strategy may be to avoid a sharp drop in prices already in early spring, when, according to analysts' expectations, gas demand in Asia will fall and the freed up volumes of LNG will come to Europe. Gazprom continues to "dry up" the European gas market, acting contrary to the usual economic logic. Although gas prices in Europe have climbed to highs in two years, Gazprom, being the largest supplier with the greatest export growth opportunities, not only does not increase physical supplies, but even reduces them in the Ukrainian transit direction (see graph). At the same time, the growth in sales volumes is due to the rise of gas from Gazprom's storage facilities in Europe. So, in the last 14 days, according to AGSI, the total gas withdrawal from storage facilities in Europe is approaching a record level of 1 billion cubic meters per day, and their occupancy has already dropped to 59%. Moreover, Gazprom is striving to maintain high prices in the European spot market by completely stopping gas sales from its electronic trading platform for delivery in the coming months. If in the middle of last year the company sometimes sold up to 1 billion cubic meters per month through the ETP, mainly with delivery the next day or next month, then from mid-December Gazprom has been selling gas there with delivery not earlier than summer or the third quarter of 2021. As a result, buyers are forced to purchase additional volumes at the hubs, which contributes to the maintenance of high prices there and stimulates traders to bring gas from the underground storage facilities. Thus, at the CEGH hub in the Austrian Baumgarten, prices soared by 31% over the month, to $ 258 per 1,000 cubic meters, and last week exceeded $ 330 per 1,000 cubic meters. Such actions of Gazprom are understandable. Now the company is in a unique situation - all free LNG in the world went to Northeast Asia, where spot prices for LNG, due to unexpected cold weather, exceed $ 1000 per 1,000 cubic meters. However, this is about to change. According to senior consultant at Vygon Consulting Yekaterina Kolbikova, contracts for February shipments of LNG for delivery to North-East Asia are already $ 650 per 1,000 cubic meters, and for March - only $ 300, as the weather in the region is returning to climatic norm. After that, at least part of the LNG will return to Europe. It can be expected that the market balancing in Asia will take place in the next month or two, otherwise we will see an almost complete stop in the growth of gas consumption in the region, says Sergey Kapitonov, gas analyst at the Skolkovo Energy Center of the Moscow School of Management. Alexey Miller, head of Gazprom, at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, January 19 We see that the volumes (exports) of the second half of the year are good and, most importantly, prices began to recover. Until then, it is important for Gazprom to reduce reserves in European UGS facilities. If this is not done, then the LNG returning to Europe could again reduce the spot gas prices, as the US LNG plants, which greatly reduced production in 2020, are again operating at full capacity. According to Sergey Kapitonov, at the current rate of extraction, gas remained in European UGS facilities for a little more than 70 days, and the level of storage capacity is very similar to the indicator on the same date in 2018, when Europe met the end of the heating season with almost empty storage facilities. This approach of Gazprom will also theoretically make it possible to better manage the limited capacity of export pipelines: a significant part of the demand will shift to the summer, when European consumers will fill UGS facilities by next winter. The previous plan of Gazprom assumed that by the middle of 2021 the company will fully complete Nord Stream 2 and gas pipelines in the Balkans for the supply of gas through the Turkish Stream. However, at the moment, the timeline for the completion of Nord Stream 2 looks completely uncertain. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4654258 Edited January 22, 2021 by Tomasz 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN January 23, 2021 U.S. Proved Oil Reserves Remain Flat, Natural Gas Reserves Decline By Charles Kennedy - Jan 22, 2021, 4:30 PM CST https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Proved-Oil-Reserves-Remain-Flat-Natural-Gas-Reserves-Decline.html Lower crude oil and natural gas prices reversed in 2019 a two-year trend of record high proved reserves in the United States as operators revised down their total proved reserves estimates, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Friday. The annual report from the EIA showed that proved reserves of crude oil and lease condensate remained basically the same in 2019 as in 2018, with a very slight increase of 0.1 percent. Proved reserves of natural gas, on the other hand, dropped by 1.9 percent, according to EIA’s data through the end of 2019. In that year, crude oil prices were generally lower than oil prices in 2018, with the price of the U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, averaging $57 per barrel, down by $7 a barrel compared to 2018. “Lower crude oil prices in 2019 caused many operators to revise their total proved reserves estimates downward even though proved reserves from extensions and discoveries increased slightly,” the EIA said. To compare, higher oil and natural gas prices in 2018 raised the proved reserves of oil and gas in the United States to new all-time highs. Oil and natural gas proved reserves beat the previous record from the previous year, when rising prices and continued shale resource development in 2017 helped push U.S. reserves to what was then record-high volumes. In 2018, U.S. proved reserves of crude oil jumped by 12 percent. In 2019, U.S. proved reserves of oil, at 47.1 billion barrels, remain at the record level set in 2018, the EIA said in its report. Producers in Alaska added 259 million barrels of proved reserves of crude oil and lease condensate in 2019, the largest net increase in all states. In natural gas reserves, proved reserves recorded in 2019 the first annual decrease in the United States since 2015, with Texas posting the biggest decline with drops in large shale gas areas like the Eagle Ford, Barnett, and Bossier. Yet, total U.S. gas reserves remain at their second-highest level ever, the EIA said. By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN January 23, 2021 Elon Musk Now Wants To Drill For Natural Gas In Texas Saturday, Jan 23, 2021 - 10:45 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/elon-musk-now-wants-drill-natural-gas-texas Just months after Elon Musk moved his climate-change-fighting, alternative energy, "green" automaker to Texas, the CEO now has plans to drill for natural gas. Multiple sources reported on Friday that Musk's SpaceX intends on drilling wells close to the company's Boca Chica launchpad, according to the Dallas News. The information came out Friday during a hearing before the Railroad Commission of Texas, the state’s energy regulator. SpaceX says it plans to use methane from the ground “in connection with their rocket facility operations.” BLOOMBERG - SpaceX Plans to Drill for Natural Gas Near Texas Launchpad But SpaceX isn't drilling just yet - in fact, it is being held up by a legal dispute with another energy company. SpaceX's subsidiary, Lone Star Mineral Development, "bought the 806-acre La Pita oil lease from Houston-based Sanchez Energy, which was later renamed Mesquite Energy Inc. after exiting bankruptcy." The company's plans have been called into question by Dallas Petroleum Group, which is claiming ownership of some of the wells on the land. The dispute resulted in Friday's hearing, where's SpaceX's intentions were revealed. "There are almost a nearby dozen wells classified as either abandoned or dry holes, Railroad Commission Records show," the report says. SpaceX didn't answer any questions on Friday when reached for comments and questions about what, exactly, they would be using the natural gas for. SpaceX does plan "to utilize super-chilled liquid methane and liquid oxygen as fuel for its Raptor engines," the Dallas News noted. Tesla also has a new Gigafactory being built near Austin. In what we're sure was Musk trying to get ahead of this ugly headline, he Tweeted out on Thursday that he planned on donating $100 million toward finding the best new carbon capture technology. We're sure the timing of this Tweet - and the news that would follow less than 24 hours later - is just a coincidence. ELON MUSK TWEETS: Am donating $100M towards a prize for best carbon capture technology And so, we have come full circle. If you're a U.S. politician and/or regulator who encouraged Musk over the last decade - or pushed for him to get any kind of "green energy" subsidy - you should feel immensely stupid. But, we're sure you won't. We're certain you'll instead act like this isn't happening and isn't a stark punch in the gut to anyone who has supported Musk's boondoggles over the last decade under the guise of helping the environment. Drill, baby, drill. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN January 24, 2021 Egypt Looks To Resume LNG Exports As Prices Rise By Viktor Katona - Jan 24, 2021, 12:00 PM CST https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Egypt-Looks-To-Resume-LNG-Exports-As-Prices-Rise.html EXCERPTS Egypt’s 2015 discovery of the supergiant Zohr gas field was supposed to propel the North African country into the Eastern Mediterranean limelight. Within less than 3 years Egypt shed its historical legacy of being a net importer, rekindled its hopes of finally using its existing (and vastly underutilized) LNG infrastructure to the extent it had always wanted and even boosted its licensing activities to ensure a smooth continuation of offshore drilling looking into the 2020s. Even the internal regulatory environment turned for the better – with the new gas law of 2018 private companies could already import and distribute gas on the domestic market, i.e. Israeli gas could be brought in when global prices favor more exports. But then COVID happened and it all went down the drain. From March 2020 up until November 2020 only one cargo of Egyptian LNG has left the country on the back of anemic demand and plummeting prices all across the globe – a grueling course of events for a country wielding 12.2mtpa of liquefaction capacity. Gradually, however, the recovery of Asian demand has started to turn things around. The first positive development came late in October 2020... .. . ... ...Considering that both of Egypt’s LNG liquefaction terminals will soon be operating, the main thrust of efforts should now be put towards boosting production volumes again. Having demonstrated robust growth throughout 2016-2019, Egypt reached an annualized output level of 6.7 BCf per day last year as ENI managed to bring Zohr to a plateau. In 2020, however, overall gas production fell to a yearly average of 6.1 BCf per day, i.e. roughly 9% lower than in 2019, and might have been much worse were it not for a solid Q4 2020. The vast reserves of Zohr notwithstanding, the return of Egypt’s LNG will inevitably depend on how LNG prices evolve in Asia – their precipitous decline in the second half of January 2021 has put Egyptian producers on alert, though LNG exports towards China and India still make economic sense. At least ownership issues are now no longer in the way of reacting swiftly to the market’s mood swings. By Viktor Katona for Oilprice.com Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN January 24, 2021 (edited) Tom Nolan here: I want to drop another SUB-THREAD here. Tomasz and others have some keen insight. Deceptions Revealed about the “Nord Stream 2 Pipeline” and Germany https://community.oilprice.com/topic/20779-deceptions-revealed-about-the-“nord-stream-2-pipeline”-and-germany/ Edited January 24, 2021 by Tom Nolan Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Coffeeguyzz + 454 GM January 24, 2021 The above article describing the Egyptian LNG re-start is instructive on so many levels as regards to the global LNG situation. Indeed, future natgas development/production projects across the globe are all being impacted in a major way by the looming onslaught of cheap, easily distributed LNG to markets - existing or potential, large or small - all around the world. Of Egypt's ~6 Bcfd production, ~2 Bcfd is consumed by the astonishing Megaproject which came online a year ago. (Any operational wonks should be impressed on seeing how this New England sized project, at 14.4 Gw capacity, took only 27 months to build. One of the more under appreciated modern engineering feats.) This rise in domestic consumption is pretty much what Algeria, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, et al, are experiencing along with a plateauing or declining of production. To continue to invest in expansion, in exploration, in development of home grown resources when cheaper fuel - in the form of LNG - is readily available, makes for a dubious proposition. The long term prospects for sub $6/$7 mmbtu LNG from Russia, Qatar and the US will continue to exert outsize influence on global energy markets. The capital outlays required for Australian producers may endanger their future projects. (To get a glimpse of future market potentialities, the recent presentation from New Fortress Energy outlines how the dizzying array of processes and hardware - including FSRUs, ISO containers, FSUs, small scale aerodynamic turbines, economical large CCGTs, amongst other innovations - are enabling this one company to embark upon an audacious attempt in capturing these emerging markets. These include a tiny power plant in La Paz, Mexico (105 Mw) up to the massive (1,500 Mw) plant at Sergipe, Brazil). When utilities, power generators, and other consumers of energy are able to take advantage of a relatively cheap, available fuel source, competing providers are increasingly placed in a disadvantaged position. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN January 25, 2021 5 hours ago, Coffeeguyzz said: New Fortress Energy outlines how the dizzying array of processes and hardware - including FSRUs, ISO containers, FSUs, small scale aerodynamic turbines, economical large CCGTs, amongst other innovations - are enabling this one company to embark upon an audacious attempt in capturing these emerging markets. These include a tiny power plant in La Paz, Mexico (105 Mw) up to the massive (1,500 Mw) plant at Sergipe, Brazil). WEBSITE - https://www.newfortressenergy.com/ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN January 25, 2021 From last week - Friday Jan 22nd https://www.naturalgasintel.com/natural-gas-futures-finish-rough-week-in-negative-territory-despite-strong-storage-withdrawal-cash-climbs/ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN January 25, 2021 Weather Models Show ‘Solid Demand Gains’ Over Weekend as Natural Gas Futures Rebound https://www.naturalgasintel.com/weather-models-show-solid-demand-gains-over-weekend-as-natural-gas-futures-rebound/ By Jeremiah Shelor - January 25th Monday A colder shift in forecasts over the weekend, including increasing potential for a chillier pattern into the middle of next month, saw natural gas futures rebound in early trading Monday. The February Nymex contract was up 8.7 cents to $2.533/MMBtu at around 8:40 a.m. ET. Analysts at EBW Analytics Group attributed the early morning price gains to a “rebound” in projected gas-weighted heating demand from both the European and American weather models over the weekend. “Further, a more variable pattern emerged, with alternating shots of colder and milder air,” the EBW analysts said. “The cold shots are forecast to be colder than last week, though, and the milder periods are not nearly as warm. “Model uncertainty remains high, dictating a cautious approach to the market. At least for now, the downside risk appears significantly lower and the odds for colder mid-February weather are increasing.” The pattern sets up potential for gas prices to strengthen amid further erosion of the storage surplus, according to the firm. Bespoke Weather Services estimated “solid demand gains” from the weekend model changes, including an additional 15-20 gas-weighted degree days over the next couple weeks. “Some of these colder changes were for this week, not just far out in the more unreliable extended forecast,” Bespoke said. “It is still not a cold pattern by any means, but a decent step away from the big warmth we saw the other day.” Given a “reasonably supportive” supply/demand balance, “we could see further upside as we head into February expiration Wednesday, keeping in mind that we have rallied into the expiration of the last two contracts.” Meanwhile, going back to the 187 Bcf weekly withdrawal from U.S. natural gas stocks the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Friday, analysts at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) said the print came in bullish versus consensus expectations and the five-year average even as degree days for the week were down 12% versus norms. “Power generation demand continues to be a bright spot as soft seasonal gas pricing and a recent drop in wind generation contributed to record seasonal power burn for the report week,” the TPH analysts said. This week’s report could see a return to a lighter-than-normal withdrawal, but next week’s EIA report, reflecting the current week’s balances, “looks to be starting on the right foot, with the highest residential/commercial numbers observed so far this winter,” according to the firm. The “solid cooling trend” in forecasts over the weekend could put gas prices on a “positive trajectory” to open the week, the TPH analysts said, adding that they “continue to see upside to $3.25 this summer.” March crude oil futures were off 10 cents to $52.17/bbl at around 8:40 a.m. ET, while February RBOB gasoline was down fractionally to $1.5460/gal. © 2021 Natural Gas Intelligence. All rights reserved. jeremiah.shelor@naturalgasintel.com @JeremiahShelor Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN January 25, 2021 Tom Nolan here --------- STOCKS MENTIONED IN ARTICLE BELOW ---------- Natural Gas prices have been screaming higher today - Monday January 25th - Up almost 7% near market close at $2.61. Live GRAPH https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas Here's Why Natural Gas Lost 11% Past Week Despite a Big Draw Zacks - Monday 25, 2021 - Nilanjan Choudhury https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-why-natural-gas-lost-125212378.html The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory release showed a higher-than-expected decrease in natural gas supplies. Despite the big draw — largest of the season so far — the prospect of less heating consumption due to unfavorable changes in the weather data pulled back the U.S. benchmark around 11% last week. Let us see how the natural gas situation looks like after the U.S. Energy Department's latest weekly inventory release: EIA Reports a Pull Stronger Than Market Expectations Stockpiles held in underground storage in the lower 48 states fell by 187 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended Jan 15 compared to the guidance of a 177 Bcf decline. The decrease was also above the five-year (2016-2021) average net shrinkage of 167 Bcf and last year’s drop of 97 Bcf for the reported week. The latest official data puts total natural gas stocks at 3.009 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), which is 36 Bcf (1.2%) above the 2020 levels at this time and 198 Bcf (7%) higher than the five-year average. Total supply of natural gas averaged 96.1 Bcf per day, edging down 0.4% on a weekly basis due to a decrease in shipments from Canada. Meanwhile, daily consumption fell 4.7% to 112.7 Bcf from 118.2 Bcf in the previous week, dragged down by a decrease in residential/commercial gas usage and a decline in power demand. Natural Gas Price Drops Despite the Above-Consensus Inventory Draw Natural gas prices fell last week despite the higher-than-expected inventory draw. Futures for February delivery ended Friday at $2.446 per MMBtu on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down roughly 11% from the same time previous week. The decrease in the price of natural gas (despite the larger-than-anticipated inventory draw) is the result of forecast models, indicating milder-than-normal weather in the days ahead, which translates into smaller draws due to less use of heaters. Wrap-Up As is the norm with natural gas, changes in temperature and weather forecasts can lead to price swings. With the latest models showing bearish changes toward a less chiller outlook, prices are expected to trend lower. As it is, with stockpiles still bloated, downside risks would continue to outweigh the upside potential unless the weather pattern flips significantly to colder for natural gas usage to rise. While growing LNG exports and lower production are providing some support for a price recovery, it will be the magnitude of cold across the United States that will dictate the energy commodity’s future. The lingering uncertainty over the heating fuel means that most natural gas-focused companies carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). As a result, investors should preferably wait for a better entry point before buying shares in EQT Corporation EQT, Antero Resources AR, Southwestern Energy Company SWN etc. Others like Range Resources RRC and Comstock Resources CRK are further down the pecking order, with a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), respectively. If you are still looking for near-term natural gas plays, CNX Resources CNX and Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation COG might be good selections. CNX Resources is a leading operator in the Appalachian basin — the most- prolific domestic gas basin — with more than 1.1 million net acres. About 96% of the company’s total output is natural gas. While the company’s low-cost, high-quality inventory should ensure long-term output growth, cash flows will also receive some downside protection from attractive hedges. The 2021 Zacks Consensus Estimate for this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company indicates 34.4% earnings per share growth over 2020. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. On the other hand, Cabot is an independent gas exploration company with producing properties mainly in the continental United States. The company — with a Zacks Rank of 2 — owns 174,000 net acres in the dry gas window of the Marcellus play. Cabot boasts one of the strongest balance sheets among the natural gas-focused E&P group. The company's total assets are almost double that of its total liabilities, reflecting safety in debt payments, robust financing power and the ability to increase stock repurchases. The 2021 Zacks Consensus Estimate for this company indicates 200.4% earnings per share growth over 2020. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Comstock Resources, Inc. (CRK) : Free Stock Analysis Report EQT Corporation (EQT) : Free Stock Analysis Report Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) : Free Stock Analysis Report Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (COG) : Free Stock Analysis Report CNX Resources Corporation. (CNX) : Free Stock Analysis Report Range Resources Corporation (RRC) : Free Stock Analysis Report Antero Resources Corporation (AR) : Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN January 25, 2021 Why Gazprom Cut Gas Supply To Europe Amid Rising Prices By Tatiana Serova - Jan 25, 2021, 1:00 PM CST https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Why-Gazprom-Cut-Gas-Supply-To-Europe-Amid-Rising-Prices.html [Good article which gives details] EXCERPT ...The rate of depletion of these reserves can appear worrying, considering that they were 73% full in December 2020. Gas analyst Serguei Kapitonov, cited by OSN media, argues that these reserves are expected to be sufficient for 70 more days. This situation looks like a deja-vu, reminding us of the winter 2018 when Europe got to spring with almost empty storage sites : their average level was 20% in March. .... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,443 TN January 26, 2021 February Natural Gas Futures Fly Higher on Expectations for Stronger Demand; Cash Prices Advance By Kevin Dobbs - January 25th, 2021 - Monday https://www.naturalgasintel.com/february-natural-gas-futures-fly-higher-on-expectations-for-stronger-demand-cash-prices-advance/ After a bruising run a week earlier, natural gas futures rebounded Monday on substantial increases in expected heating demand over the weekend and a fresh bout of winter weather settling in across parts of the Midwest on Monday. The February Nymex gas futures contract jumped 15.6 cents day/day and settled at $2.602. The prompt month had dropped 10% over the prior week. March rose 14.2 cents to $2.598 on Monday, also recovering from a slump a week earlier. Of last week’s activity, analysts at The Schork Report said, “the fact traders are unwilling to pay a premium to own gas for the final two delivery months of winter is as fundamentally bearish as it gets,” given that gas demand is typically the strongest in winter. Observers said hints of a cold finish to winter, however, were enough for futures to reverse course on Monday. “The supply/demand balance remains tight for when weather cooperates,” NatGastWeather said. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. advanced 9.0 cents to $2.730. After a week of warming shifts in weather forecasts, model changes over the weekend turned back colder for the final week of January and into early next month, lifting expectations for a run of stronger heating demand. Bespoke Weather Services estimated an additional 15-20 gas-weighted degree days over the next couple weeks. “Some of these colder changes were for this week, not just far out in the more unreliable extended forecast,” the firm said. But the change marked “a decent step away from the big warmth we saw” in outlooks last week. Given a “reasonably supportive” supply/demand balance, “we could see further upside as we head into February expiration Wednesday, keeping in mind that we have rallied into the expiration of the last two contracts.” U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export volumes also recovered Monday, climbing to around 11 Bcf after dipping down near the 9 Bcf level late last week. Challenges created by several days of heavy fog near Cheniere’s Sabine Pass LNG facility temporarily minimized activity. EBW Analytics Group said the combination of colder weather with LNG strength could result in robust storage withdrawals in the coming weeks, supporting futures. “At least for now, the downside risk appears significantly lower and the odds for colder mid-February weather are increasing,” EBW analysts said. “With the storage surplus continuing to decline, gas prices could strengthen.” The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) last Friday reported a withdrawal of 187 Bcf for the week ended Jan. 15, the steepest pull of the season. Analysts at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) said “power generation demand continues to be a bright spot as soft seasonal gas pricing and a recent drop in wind generation contributed to record seasonal power burn for the report week.” Analysts generally expect a smaller decline with this week’s EIA report – mild weather permeated much of the country in the covered week – but cooler conditions could result in large declines with storage reports after that. Next week’s EIA report, reflecting the current week’s balances, “looks to be starting on the right foot, with the highest residential/commercial numbers observed so far this winter,” according to TPH. The EBW analysts noted already dwindling supplies in the South Central region, in particular. The year/year storage comparison “has tightened every week since Thanksgiving to flip to a 17 Bcf deficit” with the most recent EIA report. The latest withdrawal of 31 Bcf from South Central salt storage was the largest since March 2019, the firm noted. Since the storage week ending Nov. 28, the South Central region has averaged 3.5 Bcf/d tighter year/year. “While recent cold weather in the South Central helped to accelerate drawdowns, local fundamentals have tightened considerably with higher LNG exports, a weakened local supply picture, and modest gains in pipeline exports to Mexico,” EBW noted. Cash Climbs Spot gas prices cruised higher across the Lower 48 as colder conditions swept across the West and Midwest, bringing lows near zero on Monday in northern markets such as Minneapolis. Forecasts showed the cold wave moving east as the week progresses. NatGasWeather called it “a messy” pattern this week “as numerous weather systems track across the country with rain and snow…As this system finally tracks through the East mid-week, colder air over the Midwest will spread south and eastward with lows of 0s to 30s for stronger national demand.” Several hubs in the Midwest posted solid gains Monday, with Chicago Citygate up 10.5 cents day/day to average $2.485 and Lebanon ahead 11.0 cents to $2.450. In the Midcontinent, OGT gained 22.0 cents to $2.505. Prices were also strong as far south as Texas, where El Paso Permian gained 16.5 cents to $2.500. Wood Mackenzie analyst Joe Bernardi noted that even Southern California is expecting a cold snap this week. Meteorologists “are forecasting significantly colder-than-normal temperatures for the Golden State, with the coldest weather coming Tuesday and warming slightly from there,” Bernardi said. “Southern California is expected to be especially cold relative to its norms this week,” with lows in the 40s.On Monday in California, prices at SoCal Citygate jumped 45.0 cents to $3.875, while SoCal Border Avg. gained 19.0 cents to $2.925. kevin.dobbs@naturalgasintel.com Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ronwagn + 6,290 January 26, 2021 On 1/19/2021 at 8:38 PM, Tom Nolan said: Natgas Plunges 5% On New Weather Models Forecasting Milder Temps https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/natgas-plunges-5-new-weather-models-forecasting-milder-temps As soon as Goldman Sachs gets bullish on natural gas, new weather models are forecasting warmer weather trends for the next two weeks. As a result, NYMEX Henry Hub natgas February futures have plunged 5% Tuesday morning. The plunge in natgas futures come on milder forecasts for the US, which means heating demand will wane over the next two weeks than previously expected. "That decline came even though liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports remained near record levels and last week's storage draw was slightly bigger than expected," said Investing.com's Ajay Kedia. Kedia said, "US natural gas production and demand will drop in 2021 as the economic fallout from coronavirus lockdowns continues." Meteorologists at BAMWX expanded more on the new weather models that forecast warmer weather trends for the US through the end of the month. They tweeted, "A look at what natgas was expecting FRI for week 2 vs the latest data rolled into the 5-12 day period. EPS lost 17 HDDs in that period GEFS lost 11.3 HDDs in that period BAM had to lower HDDs 3 points in that period (our FRI week 2 shown)." From the Southwest to Mid-Atlantic, temps will be slightly above average through the end of the month. Looks good to me, I was dreading an Arctic plunge from Canada. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ronwagn + 6,290 January 26, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 9:48 AM, Wombat said: I am glad to hear that Russia is investing in Yellow H2. I think France should do the same. But uses virtually zero solar or wind. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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