EU(Merkel/Germany) ready to sign Trade Agreement with China

[0R0 + 6,251]

4 hours ago, specinho said:

Concept of GDP might have a little share of skewed representation at times. I might be wrong but this is opened for discussion................

Real GDP = Goods +services volumes [production side]= Net Revenues / Price index (deflator) = Retail sales+Investment+Net exports+govt. [revenue side]

Western official GDP is calculated from Retail sales+Investment+Net exports+got and price indices are applied to that to derive the real GDP. It is all calculated from the revenue side.

China's official GDP figures are essentially derivatives of output measures. How many widgets +hours of service X Price index

They are materially different in method and results are not really comparable.. Chinese production of what is essentially industrial garbage which sells at the appropriate discount to useful products carries the same weight as a Western product that is only made for a profit. The Chinese product is made to meet strategic goals and measures, same as "the great leap forward". The low prices of the useless garbage product are used to weight down the price index average so as to hide the price of the portion of production that people find useful enough to buy.

An example is construction equipment like cranes and trucks that construction companies can book as valuable assets at full market value of operational equipment, though they sit in large junk yards rusting away and never see service because they are so unreliable or missing operating parts like actuators controls and motors. These "assets" are used to back bank loans that fund construction using a small portion of the equipment fleet that actually runs, usually made by foreign transplants.

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

1 hour ago, Roch said:

Peter Navarro , EU - CHINA Trade Agreement bad deal for Europe.  Is assumes China will honor their agreements.  Never have , Never will.

Australia is currently enjoying the fruits of their free trade agreement with the CCP. Looks like everything is coming up roses.

[Hotone + 412]

On 1/1/2021 at 5:21 AM, 0R0 said:

As has always been the case, human capital in China is lacking in investment, indeed, the reason they are so rich in infrastructure is that 3 of 4 people do not enter high school. The illusion of China as a whole being on a trajectory to 1st world productivity and incomes comes from the 1/4 of the population that live in the main Tier 1 cities Those are the CCP membership and their family members.

The rest of the people are migrant labor that has had incomes grow slower than GDP for the  decade and rurals that had been lagging urban income in the prior decades but have seen incomes grow ahead of GDP this decade. Their productivity topped off in 2014 and output in 2016, and they are retiring and dying off. Floods and food animal diseases have joined contaminated aquifers and loss of arable land reduced output and make farmers more valuable for the foreseeable future.

That intensity of labor in agriculture and lack of education is the main issue that keeps 75% of China outside the realm of an advanced economy.  The old boom in China accrues to the top layer of society while the rest are remaining increasingly behind them. In the 30 years of growth till 2018, China has not increased its relative investment in education for the broader population as % of GDP. The 3 of 4 ending education in middle school figure has not changed significantly in all that time.

Thus your projection is impossible to achieve.

I searched for videos about Chinese tier 4 (lowest tier) cities and here are 2 of them.  This is Rizhao, where the vlogger mentioned that things are really cheap 👇

This guy lives in a tier 4 city (he calls it tier 5) in the second poorest province of China.  He was so excited about something coming to his city👇!

 

Edited January 2, 2021 by Hotone

[Hotone + 412]

3 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Real GDP = Goods +services volumes [production side]= Net Revenues / Price index (deflator) = Retail sales+Investment+Net exports+govt. [revenue side]

Western official GDP is calculated from Retail sales+Investment+Net exports+got and price indices are applied to that to derive the real GDP. It is all calculated from the revenue side.

China's official GDP figures are essentially derivatives of output measures. How many widgets +hours of service X Price index

They are materially different in method and results are not really comparable.. Chinese production of what is essentially industrial garbage which sells at the appropriate discount to useful products carries the same weight as a Western product that is only made for a profit. The Chinese product is made to meet strategic goals and measures, same as "the great leap forward". The low prices of the useless garbage product are used to weight down the price index average so as to hide the price of the portion of production that people find useful enough to buy.

An example is construction equipment like cranes and trucks that construction companies can book as valuable assets at full market value of operational equipment, though they sit in large junk yards rusting away and never see service because they are so unreliable or missing operating parts like actuators controls and motors. These "assets" are used to back bank loans that fund construction using a small portion of the equipment fleet that actually runs, usually made by foreign transplants.

Hmm, watch this video about construction equipment produced by the Chinese.  They can be operated remotely using Huawei 5G.  One guy was shown operating a machine 1500 kilometers away!

 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

 

I think some US users are really not fully aware of how the rest of the world really views the US and its agressive foreign policy  

For this, I advise you to read a study from 2013 because here you can see two totally different faces of USA according to wide- range poll.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/greatest-threat-world-peace-country_n_4531824?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAADGkSNv_vfR3ig02KFKXAh3cLEfPAVJmDLJ-YP3oKLivw3TgI7e7Thcay6pIC8Awe4MeByPI-7b7wFKB_aUN9VsLpMU2DIzkx-CosLcAgalCizghFVH3-vEJq4FqQX4L1CqKz-fokQEglkOZ_6DCYS6B6EnbLWAKZWDNvHcZHPyQ

Quote

 

There’s really no way to sugarcoat it: The rest of world believes that the United States is the country that poses the greatest threat to world peace, beating out all challengers by a wide margin.

This is the conclusion of a massive world opinion poll conducted by Win/Gallup International and released at the close of 2013. The poll, which was first conducted in 1977, asked over 66,000 thousand people across 65 countries this year a variety of questions about the world, including which country they would most like to call home, whether or not the world is becoming a generally better place and which country poses the greatest threat to world peace.

The U.S. was voted the biggest threat by far, garnering 24 percent of the vote. Pakistan was a very distant second with 8 percent, followed by China (6 percent) and Afghanistan (5 percent).

Perhaps not surprisingly, Americans had a slightly different view of the international troublemakers, naming Iran the top threat. Yet while Afghanistan garnered the second-most votes among American respondents, they also voted the U.S. among the most threatening nations — in an unenviable veritable tie for third place with North Korea.

Interestingly, the U.S. was also the country to which people around the world would most like to move, if given the opportunity. 

 

An example is the propaganda campaign that China is ilegally listening to the world through Huaiwei and Russia through Kasperski.

The rulers of America really think that world community do no remember events more than 5 years ago and do not remember, for example, Snowden's revelations about the NSA, Assange and wikileaks, weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, the entire post-war history of South America and the edge of the right-wing dictators ruling with the support of the CIA or even an incident in Tonking Bay?

Of course, the US citizen has many more rights than the Chinese in China. I will just tell you a secret - the overwhelming majority of the world population doesnt give a shit for how many rights exacly  an American has in the US and how many a Chinese in China.

People, really care only about with whom you can do better business with and who took part in most of the armed conflicts after World War II and who practically, apart from the generally little-known Sino-Vietnamese war, did not participate in any. Here, frankly speaking its a bit unfair because most of the world knows that the US bombed Vietnam with napalm and hardly anyone in the world has heard about China's aggression.

First you have to realize that there is a popular worldwide chilean joke after CIA coup against Allende in 1973 - it goes like this

Why has there never been a revolution or a coup in the US?

Because there is no US embassy in Washington

Or such like that after Iraq disaster

Huge oil and gas reserves have been found in Antarctica. It is high time for international community to topple the bloody piggy regime.

Or Die Anstalt about US foreign policy in Middle East - its most popular german satire programme

I am not saying that this is entirely true or that it is fair image of USA I just want to inform you about what large part of world community really thinks about about US foreign policy

Because it is true that America has great scientific, technical and medical achievements much greater than China for the time being.

But the objective fact is that it pursues an aggressive foreign policy after World War II, and as a country for at least the last 130 years it has been involved in a great number of wars,  military interventions and coups.

As I say, the US has definitely two faces and unfortunately foreign policy is definitely a worse face

.And it is even worse for America because slowly over the years the whole world is discovering that nowadays much better business than with the Americans can be done with the Chinese, and additionally the Chinese do not show too much desire so far  to bomb someone or organize another color revolution somewhere.

And the fact that they are murdering some Uighurs or dissidents , the world really doesn't give a damn.

Edited January 2, 2021 by Tomasz

[0R0 + 6,251]

29 minutes ago, Hotone said:

Hmm, watch this video about construction equipment produced by the Chinese.  They can be operated remotely using Huawei 5G.  One guy was shown operating a machine 1500 kilometers away!

 

Real incomes in lower tier cities are much higher than in Tier 1 cities. But you missed the point. This core urban population is not all of China, it is 1/4 of it. Which is still as many as in EU or N Am.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 12/30/2020 at 11:19 PM, Hotone said:

@ronwagn

The West needs to save China with democracy. 🤭😅😂🤣

Those in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and other neighboring countries, who speak fluent Chinese, should be able to give the best opinions. Read the Epoch TImes online. Subscribe. 

https://www.theepochtimes.com/

 

Edited January 3, 2021 by ronwagn
add

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

5 hours ago, ronwagn said:

On 12/31/2020 at 12:19 PM, Hotone said:

@ronwagn

The West needs to save China with democracy. 🤭😅😂🤣

Those in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and other neighboring countries, who speak fluent Chinese, should be able to give the best opinions. Read the Epoch TImes online. Subscribe. 

https://www.theepochtimes.com/

 

Edited 5 hours ago by ronwagn
add

I have to say, those two young men get a great deal right in thier perceptions, and I pretty much agree with the vast majority of the "reality" that they portray as being actual in Chinese life.

Going all the way back to "Tianenmen Square" in 1989, I'll never forget the people that I worked with and respected telling me, when asked what they thought of the student demonstrations, that they just wished the students wouldn't try to push so hard and so fast, that the government would change and was changing, if they just gave it a bit of time.  I then subsequently ended up living and working in China for the next 9-10 years and saw the government adapting much of what the people wanted.

The comments about freedom meaning the freedom to criticize the government, and that the average Chinese has little reason to want to criticize the government were quite true back then, and I don't see why they would want to attack the government, at least in ways similar to us in the West, any more or less today.

Glad you shared the video, @Ron Wagner as I wouldn't have seen it if you hadn't.  Thanks to you and @Hotone for that.   

[Hotone + 412]

On 1/2/2021 at 12:00 PM, 0R0 said:

Real incomes in lower tier cities are much higher than in Tier 1 cities. But you missed the point. This core urban population is not all of China, it is 1/4 of it. Which is still as many as in EU or N Am.

This tier 4 city actually looks a bit affluent (you can watch in the following video).  When the vlogger mentioned that prices are cheap, he wasn't kidding.  He stayed in the Hilton and on Trip.com it only costs USD 38 per night with meals included 😮.  One of the hotels went as low as USD 11 per night - the photos look decent and even had 5 star reviews from international travellers 😲.  How can prices in China be so low for the quality they provide?

By the way, this city dates back to 2070 BC, according to Wikipedia.

 

Edited January 4, 2021 by Hotone

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 1/1/2021 at 9:40 PM, Tomasz said:

 

I think some US users are really not fully aware of how the rest of the world really views the US and its agressive foreign policy  

For this, I advise you to read a study from 2013 because here you can see two totally different faces of USA according to wide- range poll.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/greatest-threat-world-peace-country_n_4531824?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAADGkSNv_vfR3ig02KFKXAh3cLEfPAVJmDLJ-YP3oKLivw3TgI7e7Thcay6pIC8Awe4MeByPI-7b7wFKB_aUN9VsLpMU2DIzkx-CosLcAgalCizghFVH3-vEJq4FqQX4L1CqKz-fokQEglkOZ_6DCYS6B6EnbLWAKZWDNvHcZHPyQ

An example is the propaganda campaign that China is ilegally listening to the world through Huaiwei and Russia through Kasperski.

The rulers of America really think that world community do no remember events more than 5 years ago and do not remember, for example, Snowden's revelations about the NSA, Assange and wikileaks, weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, the entire post-war history of South America and the edge of the right-wing dictators ruling with the support of the CIA or even an incident in Tonking Bay?

Of course, the US citizen has many more rights than the Chinese in China. I will just tell you a secret - the overwhelming majority of the world population doesnt give a shit for how many rights exacly  an American has in the US and how many a Chinese in China.

People, really care only about with whom you can do better business with and who took part in most of the armed conflicts after World War II and who practically, apart from the generally little-known Sino-Vietnamese war, did not participate in any. Here, frankly speaking its a bit unfair because most of the world knows that the US bombed Vietnam with napalm and hardly anyone in the world has heard about China's aggression.

First you have to realize that there is a popular worldwide chilean joke after CIA coup against Allende in 1973 - it goes like this

Why has there never been a revolution or a coup in the US?

Because there is no US embassy in Washington

Or such like that after Iraq disaster

Huge oil and gas reserves have been found in Antarctica. It is high time for international community to topple the bloody piggy regime.

Or Die Anstalt about US foreign policy in Middle East - its most popular german satire programme

I am not saying that this is entirely true or that it is fair image of USA I just want to inform you about what large part of world community really thinks about about US foreign policy

Because it is true that America has great scientific, technical and medical achievements much greater than China for the time being.

But the objective fact is that it pursues an aggressive foreign policy after World War II, and as a country for at least the last 130 years it has been involved in a great number of wars,  military interventions and coups.

As I say, the US has definitely two faces and unfortunately foreign policy is definitely a worse face

.And it is even worse for America because slowly over the years the whole world is discovering that nowadays much better business than with the Americans can be done with the Chinese, and additionally the Chinese do not show too much desire so far  to bomb someone or organize another color revolution somewhere.

And the fact that they are murdering some Uighurs or dissidents , the world really doesn't give a damn.

Helping the Chinese with trade policies is basically immoral, as I have stated preiviously. I have not seen any reliable polls on China versus American popularity. The real Chinese economy is somewhat of a mystery due to their closed society. Moral countries will try to find other options for their trade. That includes us. I want more options to avoid Chinese goods. I am as guilty as the rest of us though. Our argument should always be with the CCP and not with the Chinese people. 

[RichieRich$ + 65]

My argument is with the people that can’t tell the forest from the trees, Had the U.S. not gotten involved, paid for and then rebuilt our enemies you all would be eating and bending your knees to Germany and Japan! Has the U.S. not jumped into other conflicts, of course and that’s why there’s not been a WW 3! You go suckling up to China and because it’s a closedown society you hear very little about it, that said when roughly a billion people find out they are living a life as an Afghanistan Tribe that doesn’t know what is 2 miles away from it, No amount of Chinese Communist bullshit will stop these living in the wastelands of China’s that’s leadership has raped its own country that it’s had to do it’s Belt and Road program just to get it’s hands on the raw materials that they ripped out of there own Country. You will see these people stop at nothing to be pre locked up Hong Kong! At the end of day I’ll stay with what you think are the flawed people of the United States! 

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 1/1/2021 at 10:40 PM, Tomasz said:

 

I think some US users are really not fully aware of how the rest of the world really views the US and its agressive foreign policy  

For this, I advise you to read a study from 2013 because here you can see two totally different faces of USA according to wide- range poll.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/greatest-threat-world-peace-country_n_4531824?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAADGkSNv_vfR3ig02KFKXAh3cLEfPAVJmDLJ-YP3oKLivw3TgI7e7Thcay6pIC8Awe4MeByPI-7b7wFKB_aUN9VsLpMU2DIzkx-CosLcAgalCizghFVH3-vEJq4FqQX4L1CqKz-fokQEglkOZ_6DCYS6B6EnbLWAKZWDNvHcZHPyQ

An example is the propaganda campaign that China is ilegally listening to the world through Huaiwei and Russia through Kasperski.

The rulers of America really think that world community do no remember events more than 5 years ago and do not remember, for example, Snowden's revelations about the NSA, Assange and wikileaks, weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, the entire post-war history of South America and the edge of the right-wing dictators ruling with the support of the CIA or even an incident in Tonking Bay?

Of course, the US citizen has many more rights than the Chinese in China. I will just tell you a secret - the overwhelming majority of the world population doesnt give a shit for how many rights exacly  an American has in the US and how many a Chinese in China.

People, really care only about with whom you can do better business with and who took part in most of the armed conflicts after World War II and who practically, apart from the generally little-known Sino-Vietnamese war, did not participate in any. Here, frankly speaking its a bit unfair because most of the world knows that the US bombed Vietnam with napalm and hardly anyone in the world has heard about China's aggression.

First you have to realize that there is a popular worldwide chilean joke after CIA coup against Allende in 1973 - it goes like this

Why has there never been a revolution or a coup in the US?

Because there is no US embassy in Washington

Or such like that after Iraq disaster

Huge oil and gas reserves have been found in Antarctica. It is high time for international community to topple the bloody piggy regime.

Or Die Anstalt about US foreign policy in Middle East - its most popular german satire programme

I am not saying that this is entirely true or that it is fair image of USA I just want to inform you about what large part of world community really thinks about about US foreign policy

Because it is true that America has great scientific, technical and medical achievements much greater than China for the time being.

But the objective fact is that it pursues an aggressive foreign policy after World War II, and as a country for at least the last 130 years it has been involved in a great number of wars,  military interventions and coups.

As I say, the US has definitely two faces and unfortunately foreign policy is definitely a worse face

.And it is even worse for America because slowly over the years the whole world is discovering that nowadays much better business than with the Americans can be done with the Chinese, and additionally the Chinese do not show too much desire so far  to bomb someone or organize another color revolution somewhere.

And the fact that they are murdering some Uighurs or dissidents , the world really doesn't give a damn.

Of course the US is the most threatening force on the planet because of its large military force,, its equipment and technology.

As to not caring who you are doing business with, it is a common attitude and a short sighted one. Because the structural decision making in China is not the commercial one you have in the West. China does business from a military strategic point of view. Much is subsidized in one way or another, on the capital side or on the running loss side. It is intended to hollow out key strategic industries out of trading partner's economies, particularly intended to create existential dependency on China, or to allow a military strategic presence in the trading partner's territory disguised as a commercial activity. This hubris of the European and ASEAN countries in allowing themselves to divorce economic decisions from geopolitical realities comes from their perpetual reliance on the us for 75 years to do all the fighting and strategic decisions.

In fact, what the US does militarily in order to protect EU and ASEAN trade with China is what constitutes the same "agressions" they complain about. Had the US simply walked away, the entire world trade order would go onto an empire based structure of perpetual war as was the case before 1945.

Whatever the moonbeam simpletons of European geopolitics are thinking, be certain that it is wrong.You are specifically making the case for EU being penny wise and being foolish about their future existence. They are counting widgets and Euros while their partners in China are counting bullets missiles and the number of EU's people they managed to subvert.

[0R0 + 6,251]

11 hours ago, Hotone said:

This tier 4 city actually looks a bit affluent (you can watch in the following video).  When the vlogger mentioned that prices are cheap, he wasn't kidding.  He stayed in the Hilton and on Trip.com and it only costs USD 38 per night with meals included 😮.  One of the hotels went as low as USD 11 per night - the photos look decent and even had 5 star reviews from international travellers 😲.  How can prices in China be so low for the quality they provide?

By the way, this city dates back to 2070 BC, according to Wikipedia.

 

I am not countering this. China has a demographically driven demand problem and a the very high savings rate traditional to China on top of that which has been driven by aging of the people. That leads to tolerance of negative return businesses, particularly SOEs, where capital expenditures reduce the output of existing capital by swamping markets.

The excess capital malinvestment and the high savings rate create the cheap prices. That said, they are not cheap for most of the Chinese. The other issue is that China's retail markets have been cash and carry and private SME have no bank funding, it is all unofficial and largely based on cash investment rather than official credit. That said, this decade saw an emergence of consumer debt ballooning up beyond those of the US and Europe and reaching the record high levels characteristic of Korea. That means that the last narrow wave of demographic led demand has extinguished itself early due to high indebtedness

That is why I am not expecting any good economic outcomes for China. Outside of food and energy, China is more a land of excess than a land of plenty. The empty real estate, the duplicative excess of transportation infrastructure and the large swaths of industrial capacity that has no market for its output at prices that cover all the costs and provide a return on the investment.

[specinho + 467]

On 1/2/2021 at 4:18 AM, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

How much hair do you have?

Makes me wonder if you were inferring that he might mean 9 seconds............

🤔

[specinho + 467]

On 1/1/2021 at 5:21 AM, 0R0 said:

That intensity of labor in agriculture and lack of education is the main issue that keeps 75% of China outside the realm of an advanced economy.  The old boom in China accrues to the top layer of society while the rest are remaining increasingly behind them. In the 30 years of growth till 2018, China has not increased its relative investment in education for the broader population as % of GDP. The 3 of 4 ending education in middle school figure has not changed significantly in all that time.

I might be incorrect in assuming that we might have been rushing out educated groups in haste like a factory producing 2 minutes- to prepare- fast food noodles......... This act might have consequences in most, if not all, countries copying it.....

The story might have started with............ once upon a time....... when no one knew how to read........... people who could read, write and count performed much better.......... So, we enforced education......... Then, with economic blooms, we needed more engineers, doctors, etc FAST..... We lower the bar to the universities, some places might have shorten the time taken to complete the courses........ Many years down the road......... we proudly declared our population is 90% literated, with more than 70% graduates........ But...... problems arisen..........  We do not have enough placements for so many; they hence do not get enough training and exposure required; they can not perform the basic tasks required even just by judgement of common sense; poor quality human capital floods the market............ the bad cycle has been incessant.......... imagine if it takes equal salary to deliver letters to pigeon holes in a department and to be a CEO or manager, many would choose just push letter into pigeon holes, wouldn't they?? Now, you have unwillling managers doing their jobs out of no choice....... (they would rather have easy jobs but earn big money as mailmen than tackling troubles that they often can't solve, no?) and the down sides of the story continues.......

China started to develop massively late (roughly in the end of 70s or 80s). Hence, it might take some times to see the same problems emerge there..........

The old strata system might still be making more sense, no? We need workers of all tiers, not just professionals....... If 90% of our population is graduates, who would be filling lower pay, lower tier vacancies?? This creates a bad manpower vacuum that affects the performance of economy and stability of social structure in a long run.......

Farmers, fishermen and some factory workers in the modern days might have earned more than many, if not most, graduates and professionals, with some help....... Hence, there might be many ways to raise a population out of poverty and manpower gap......... Getting a degree or cert that we so highly emphasize on, might not be that useful any more, or no??

modern days engineers and workers..........

Edited January 4, 2021 by specinho

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

To the OP @Roch: If it's not too much of a problem, could you please edit the title of this thread to reflect the "Pact" instead of the "Pack" that you typed?  Sorry if this is a minor detail and of course you don't have to change it.  It's just rather irritating when one looks over at the TRENDING DISCUSSIONS and sees the error day after day.  Great topic, by the way!

[Hotone + 412]

On 1/3/2021 at 2:07 PM, Dan Warnick said:

I have to say, those two young men get a great deal right in thier perceptions, and I pretty much agree with the vast majority of the "reality" that they portray as being actual in Chinese life.

Going all the way back to "Tianenmen Square" in 1989, I'll never forget the people that I worked with and respected telling me, when asked what they thought of the student demonstrations, that they just wished the students wouldn't try to push so hard and so fast, that the government would change and was changing, if they just gave it a bit of time.  I then subsequently ended up living and working in China for the next 9-10 years and saw the government adapting much of what the people wanted.

The comments about freedom meaning the freedom to criticize the government, and that the average Chinese has little reason to want to criticize the government were quite true back then, and I don't see why they would want to attack the government, at least in ways similar to us in the West, any more or less today.

Glad you shared the video, @Ron Wagner as I wouldn't have seen it if you hadn't.  Thanks to you and @Hotone for that.   

You are welcome.  And by the way, I am right about Indians in America 😅.  Do you agree now?  Not only are they running many of America's largest companies, they will increasingly be involved in running your country 😉.   And odds are good that Kamala Harris will be POTUS in the not too distant future 😉

https://www.timesnownews.com/international/article/from-kamala-harris-to-vivek-murthy-indian-americans-in-joe-bidens-team/695497

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/joe-biden-names-two-more-indian-americans-to-top-positions/story-IUKkGMOwzOKvHOuWUBzEFK.html

Edited January 5, 2021 by Hotone

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 12/31/2020 at 3:15 PM, Roch said:

No

It's much more complex than that.

There are much better, smarter  ways to deal with this.

What are they? Why have none of them ever worked for us?

[SUZNV + 1,197]

On 12/30/2020 at 10:59 AM, Roch said:

I agree with most of your Chinese stats . .  but I differ on the outcome.

A totalitarian CCP Government will continue to move them forward.  

As for "The EU is making a terrible mistake in continuing to tie their economy to China's sinking ship. Two net exporting blocks can not make a viable trading system. The entirety of the EU investment will be used by China to bail out their bumbling SOEs. In 3 years the investment will have disappeared into CCP insider's pockets while JV's go belly up."

 

Yes I agree.  But watch.  Merkel is using this to placate the Chinese in order to sell more cars, but more important use as leverage against Biden/Kerry to take advantage of U.S. largesse under the guise of Hate Trump/Love Your Ally Cooperation. Biden Administration will fall for this ploy.   (Kerry will be Environmental Secretary but is also a "shadow" Secretary of State.) The Environment is where the Big money will be made over next 4 years courtesy of the $Trillion to be spent by Biden administration. 

Germany is one more U.S. "Fair Weather" friend.

In my opinion the only true U.S. allies at this point are England, Poland, Israel, Australia.  Most others have strayed for now.  

EU's Economy are exporting luxury products while China is exporting cheap products. This make China economy is more resilient in Economics crisis compares to EU's.

US is the consuming market but  was blamed for causing recession because their nature of taking risks and  hurt the economy by wars (Bush 43 caused damage by both). When US in recession will lead to global recession.  And EU who sell luxury products don't like this at all.

Which exactly why most people believe that China will be the top economy is inevitable. But look at the other side of the argument:

-By targeting US middle class with rising taxes, policies, increasing insurances, energy taxes and fees... when US middle class are poorer, losing houses, they will more likely to buy cars from Japan or US but not Germany.  They will buy cheap products from China  instead of luxury goods from EU. So eventually EU gains in China market and loses in US market. It comes to how fast the decreasing number of people  in the US can afford EU luxury vs how fast the increasing number of people in China can afford EU luxury.

- China is enjoying more than 40 years of growing economy (simply because very low starting point), there would be a time for diminishing return. China economy cannot self adjust without a bubble burst. If it is not a burst and V shape rise to adjust the economy, it will be a  long declining gradually.

-In history when a country made to the top, there should be an innovation of something: resources, technology, political system & management... or because other superpower were destroyed in wars. In innovation, you can shorten the gap by stealing but you cannot lead by stealing. A healthy R&D investment in private sector is vital. The exception for public sector R&D investment is in war time. 

-Who is protecting the current wealth of the world? I doubt CCP even wants to pay money to do that. Their goal is to keep CCP in power more than China to be number 1. For example with WHO and WTO, they contributed less than the US but gain more influences. The rise of China depends on strong corruption power to corrupt other countries' gov and pull them down.

I would add Japan (they are pulling businesses out of China faster than anyone else) and maybe Taiwan (the recent events in HK woke them up) in the list. Maybe south Korea but both Korea and Philippines seem to have problem with election corruption. Seems to be the new normal.

Philippines drifted away from the US since 2012 when Obama did nothing to back them up and China finished the construction on disputed islands. The “Pivot” to Asia and TPP  wouldn't affect China. China seems to try a Germany-EU relationship with South East Asia. 

[SUZNV + 1,197]

On 1/3/2021 at 12:07 AM, Dan Warnick said:

I have to say, those two young men get a great deal right in thier perceptions, and I pretty much agree with the vast majority of the "reality" that they portray as being actual in Chinese life.

Going all the way back to "Tianenmen Square" in 1989, I'll never forget the people that I worked with and respected telling me, when asked what they thought of the student demonstrations, that they just wished the students wouldn't try to push so hard and so fast, that the government would change and was changing, if they just gave it a bit of time.  I then subsequently ended up living and working in China for the next 9-10 years and saw the government adapting much of what the people wanted.

The comments about freedom meaning the freedom to criticize the government, and that the average Chinese has little reason to want to criticize the government were quite true back then, and I don't see why they would want to attack the government, at least in ways similar to us in the West, any more or less today.

Glad you shared the video, @Ron Wagner as I wouldn't have seen it if you hadn't.  Thanks to you and @Hotone for that.   

The freedom of criticize the government aka the freedom of speech is only meaningful if they got the freedom of vote. Because the ruling party is not ready to share their power,  criticize current government is the first step of any rebel/revolution, like the current gov did in the past with the former government, starting with criticizing and promising land reformation.

Students are vulnerable to any ideology, either good or bad because they have a long future after graduation and are easy to be manipulated because they have no experience, just out of parents' house.

People in China and Vietnam adapted to the government rather than government adapted to what they want (government only open the country for trade and privatize their assets and people benefit from that as well ). Government changed the people requirements from democracy to MYOB and you maybe rich. People accept it because:

-They don't know what they missed. You were raised as a vegetarian you are not craving for meat. HK, Taiwan people would have different democracy standard than mainland.

-They are struggling with lives and don't trust anyone, governments or anti government. All they want is to fill their stomach and survive. They have no expectation and doubt anyone promise them a better life. Absolutely pure and no jealousy. This is built in the culture with Confucianism.

-They have something to lose and rather keep silent. They are told if the current government collapse, then their would be chaos, your assets will lose value... and gradually you don't want anyone say bad things about government and think some democracy countries try to mess your country up with democracy as a bait. 

I always admire people who dare to speak what they think in these countries or fighting for their believe, right and wrong (but not fight for hire). I think the Tiananmen Square movement was similar to Hongkong protests. The difference is the later try to keep what they currently have and the former try to ask for democracy (more in the ideology side than the benefits side).

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

4 hours ago, SUZNV said:

The freedom of criticize the government aka the freedom of speech is only meaningful if they got the freedom of vote. Because the ruling party is not ready to share their power,  criticize current government is the first step of any rebel/revolution, like the current gov did in the past with the former government, starting with criticizing and promising land reformation.

Students are vulnerable to any ideology, either good or bad because they have a long future after graduation and are easy to be manipulated because they have no experience, just out of parents' house.

People in China and Vietnam adapted to the government rather than government adapted to what they want (government only open the country for trade and privatize their assets and people benefit from that as well ). Government changed the people requirements from democracy to MYOB and you maybe rich. People accept it because:

-They don't know what they missed. You were raised as a vegetarian you are not craving for meat. HK, Taiwan people would have different democracy standard than mainland.

-They are struggling with lives and don't trust anyone, governments or anti government. All they want is to fill their stomach and survive. They have no expectation and doubt anyone promise them a better life. Absolutely pure and no jealousy. This is built in the culture with Confucianism.

-They have something to lose and rather keep silent. They are told if the current government collapse, then their would be chaos, your assets will lose value... and gradually you don't want anyone say bad things about government and think some democracy countries try to mess your country up with democracy as a bait. 

I always admire people who dare to speak what they think in these countries or fighting for their believe, right and wrong (but not fight for hire). I think the Tiananmen Square movement was similar to Hongkong protests. The difference is the later try to keep what they currently have and the former try to ask for democracy (more in the ideology side than the benefits side).

 

Very good points, all of them, @SUZNV.  It is always a pleasure to read your inputs.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

Merkel is just crazy, establishing a relationship with a authoritarian regime and then legislating German industry be headed by women?  This world has lost it mind...

https://www.npr.org/2021/01/06/953982007/germany-moves-toward-requiring-women-on-large-companies-executive-boards

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/16/world/asia/china-women-discrimination.html

Edited January 6, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 1/3/2021 at 6:01 PM, 0R0 said:

Of course the US is the most threatening force on the planet because of its large military force,, its equipment and technology.

As to not caring who you are doing business with, it is a common attitude and a short sighted one. Because the structural decision making in China is not the commercial one you have in the West. China does business from a military strategic point of view. Much is subsidized in one way or another, on the capital side or on the running loss side. It is intended to hollow out key strategic industries out of trading partner's economies, particularly intended to create existential dependency on China, or to allow a military strategic presence in the trading partner's territory disguised as a commercial activity. This hubris of the European and ASEAN countries in allowing themselves to divorce economic decisions from geopolitical realities comes from their perpetual reliance on the us for 75 years to do all the fighting and strategic decisions.

In fact, what the US does militarily in order to protect EU and ASEAN trade with China is what constitutes the same "agressions" they complain about. Had the US simply walked away, the entire world trade order would go onto an empire based structure of perpetual war as was the case before 1945.

Whatever the moonbeam simpletons of European geopolitics are thinking, be certain that it is wrong.You are specifically making the case for EU being penny wise and being foolish about their future existence. They are counting widgets and Euros while their partners in China are counting bullets missiles and the number of EU's people they managed to subvert.

Very well and succinctly put! Thank you for that. It seems that the leaders of the world are usually in it for the short run, just as are the crony global corporations. Trump understood all this and was assailed and undermined as soon as his independence and  foresight was made clear. We live in a world of fascist nations IMHO. We are one as well. It is only a matter of degree. The only true communists are the failed states of North Korea, Cuba, and Venezuela. Fascism works, communism doesn't. Unfortunately fascism ends up attracting evil leaders who do evil things in varying proportions. Just look how the Demoncrats are benefitting from the Chinese and trying to do away with our constitutional rights of freedom of speech, freedom to defend ourselves, honest and transparent elections, etc. 

Those benefitting are mainly greedy crony capitalists, RINOS, banksters,  leftists, government employees in unions, criminals, illegal aliens, malingerers, drug addicts, politicians from all parties, alcoholics etc. 

Among politicians and others I would single out are Mitch McConnell and his wife Elaine Chao, Mitt Romney, all the leaders of Silicon Valley, the vast majority of large corporations and their boards, foundations  formed by the grandfathers and great grandfathers of their heirs, etc. 

[Boat + 1,323]

On 12/29/2020 at 4:16 PM, Gerry Maddoux said:

^

"The United States is the most powerful country in history and will remain so until long after your grandchildren are gone."

----The Absent Superpower by Peter Zeihan, copyright 2016. 

What are you guys smoking? The whole world realizes that this virus came from Wuhan and that President Xi had a good month in which to warn the world. Xi used this virus to level the playing field. Countries felt emboldened with Mr. Trump throwing jabs at China, but suddenly they feel powerless again. China is overcrowded and food insecure, for starters. It is in love with electric cars but charges them using electricity from coal-fired power plants. China is a genius at stealing intellectual property yet they couldn't build out 5G without Taiwan Semiconductor, who is expanding into the United States, not China. The world is going to run on fossil fuels for the next several years and they're not going to be enough of it (coal will be outlawed; countries that belong to the Paris Accord will be boycotted if they use coal). Just because China looks to be ascending right now doesn't mean that will continue. China will never be the global hegemon. 

The world also knows the US knew about the virus in January and simply ignored the danger. When the US finally started to react it was woefully inadequate showing their ignorance. Even today 10’s of millions run around without masks killing off each other. None of this is a China problem. It’s a US being ignorant problem.