tesla a In 2020, we produced and delivered half a million cars.

[Boat + 1,323]

On 1/2/2021 at 6:01 PM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

How much coal, uranium, and NG is required to power said EV's?

Not near as much now as there will be.

[Boat + 1,323]

Tesla is sending a group to Indonesia to discuss a battery plant. They hold the worlds largest nickel reserves. It’s reported a space x launch site will also be discussed as a possible part of the deal. Musk is working on his supply chain. He is also looking to invest up the supply chain for other battery minerals. 

[Hiten Shah + 22]

https://in.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idINL4N2JF2BL

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

10 hours ago, Boat said:

Tesla is sending a group to Indonesia to discuss a battery plant. They hold the worlds largest nickel reserves. It’s reported a space x launch site will also be discussed as a possible part of the deal. Musk is working on his supply chain. He is also looking to invest up the supply chain for other battery minerals. 

Indo is not even in the top 5 countries of Nickel reserves. 

If Musk actually wanted Nickel: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/11/protests-erupt-in-new-caledonia-over-proposed-sale-of-major-nickel-mine

If Nickel were truly desired quickly on a massive scale everyone would be heading to Australia, Russia, Brazil, New Caledonia, Philippines.  They are not.  Why?  Because those countries actually require proper, semi proper, environmental regulations, where as Indo does not give a Shit about long term consequences.  So, New Caledonia just shuttered their gargantuan Nickel mines due to new Environmental regulations(Part of French Empire).  Philippines just shelved 50% of their Nickel output due to environmental regulations.

No ONE is WILLING to pay for the environment.  Shocker. Who knew?

Certainly not the hypocrites claiming they are buying EV's for the environment. 

And it takes a decade to bring a giant new mine online. It is not one new mine that is required but rather a hundred of them if not a thousand if the world claims are to be met in actually going for EV everything.

Edited January 4, 2021 by footeab@yahoo.com

[Boat + 1,323]

3 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Indo is not even in the top 5 countries of Nickel reserves. 

If Musk actually wanted Nickel: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/11/protests-erupt-in-new-caledonia-over-proposed-sale-of-major-nickel-mine

If Nickel were truly desired quickly on a massive scale everyone would be heading to Australia, Russia, Brazil, New Caledonia, Philippines.  They are not.  Why?  Because those countries actually require proper, semi proper, environmental regulations, where as Indo does not give a Shit about long term consequences.  So, New Caledonia just shuttered their gargantuan Nickel mines due to new Environmental regulations(Part of French Empire).  Philippines just shelved 50% of their Nickel output due to environmental regulations.

No ONE is WILLING to pay for the environment.  Shocker. Who knew?

Certainly not the hypocrites claiming they are buying EV's for the environment. 

And it takes a decade to bring a giant new mine online. It is not one new mine that is required but rather a hundred of them if not a thousand if the world claims are to be met in actually going for EV everything.

My bad. Indo was ranked 6th in Nickel reserves. The thrust of the YouTube video was Musk going upstream for mineral resourses rather than relying other industry. 
Claims mean nothing, car sales do. If others run out of batteries and prices jump maybe Musk is just smarter and wants to avoid supply restrictions and higher prices. BTW, is goal is 20 million in sales by 2030. The market is much bigger.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

13 hours ago, Boat said:

Tesla is sending a group to Indonesia to discuss a battery plant. They hold the worlds largest nickel reserves. It’s reported a space x launch site will also be discussed as a possible part of the deal. Musk is working on his supply chain. He is also looking to invest up the supply chain for other battery minerals. 

The equatorial location has advantages, should be able to launch a significantly heavier payload for the same fuel ($$$).  Rough calculation about 13% more than at Cape Canaveral launch site.

https://image.gsfc.nasa.gov/poetry/ask/a10840.html

Edited January 5, 2021 by Enthalpic

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

1 hour ago, Enthalpic said:

The equatorial location has advantages, should be able to launch a significantly heavier payload for the same fuel ($$$).  Rough calculation about 13% more than at Cape Canaveral launch site.

https://image.gsfc.nasa.gov/poetry/ask/a10840.html

If max payload were actually desired from equator, French Guiana is already set up for launch and is closer, far closer over the calm seas of the Caribbean.  India, likewise is already set up for launch near the Equator.  If greenfield project, then Suriname or Ecuador would be the launch location as close to Panama canal and calm waters for shipping. 

This is what one calls a marketing, snowjob.  If someone is so stupid as to swallow something you threw out there for free just to see if they will bite while you gain that which you ACTUALLY want, great, and if the BS is turned down, no loss; you planned on losing it anyways. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 minute ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

If max payload were actually desired from equator, French Guiana is already set up for launch and is closer, far closer over the calm seas of the Caribbean.  India, likewise is already set up for launch near the Equator.  If greenfield project, then Suriname or Ecuador would be the launch location as close to Panama canal and calm waters for shipping. 

This is what one calls a marketing, snowjob.  If someone is so stupid as to swallow something you threw out there for free just to see if they will bite while you gain that which you ACTUALLY want, great, and if the BS is turned down, no loss; you planned on losing it anyways. 

Fair enough.

[NickW + 2,714]

On 1/3/2021 at 1:14 PM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Think you need to practice the kama sutra positions a bit more dude.  330 days of sunshine a year... Sure dude.  Solargis does not agree with you that is for sure. 

https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=Z3nw9CcC&id=A206869BEFC7AA4C39D515626F6C62E86C90CF83&thid=OIP.Z3nw9CcCeAbQlhJI70WrSAHaD_&mediaurl=http%3a%2f%2fmybroadband.co.za%2fnews%2fwp-content%2fuploads%2f2015%2f10%2fDNI.jpg&exph=789&expw=1463&q=solar+map+of+the+world&simid=608035947943953626&ck=90D772940B8F0199129637B12AC1925B&selectedIndex=0&FORM=IRPRST&idpp=overlayview&ajaxhist=0

In case you can't read, yellow = piss Shit poor and you create more CO2 putting the panels up than you "save"

Do you have anything to substantiate that claim?

If it were true then it would be pointless installing any solar in Europe (except Spain), The eastern USA, and most of China. The majority of global solar deployment is in these locations. 

 

Edited January 5, 2021 by NickW

[Guy Daley + 49]

Not a single commenter on this entire thread questioned the premise that 500,000 cars were delivered to CUSTOMERS that were going to drive the car.  If the car gets delivered to a auto sales lot and it sits there waiting for a buyer, then absolutely NO oil is being displaced.

Neither was the number of 500,000 questioned either.  In this day and age where the MSM lies through their teeth about a variety of things to push certain agendas then why would the 500,000 number be taken as the honest truth?  Covid stats are pumped through the roof with false positive testing to justify lockdowns.  Deaths are attributed to covid regardless of how they died.  The swing state election results were fraudulently acquired and then aggressively pushed as the truth from the MSM but the media isn't going to lie about all things "climate change" related?  

Pull the other one.  

The notion that EVs are still selling llike hot cakes during this time where the demonrats are destoying the economy via the covid scam is ludicrous.  The idea that people SHOULD accept as truth anything that is printed is also LUDICROUS.  I've seen the photos of people lined up for MILES for free food handouts.  I do believe that info IS true because what else are people lining up for in these times besides Trump rallies?  Sporting events?  Concerts?  Movie lines?  Cruise ship departures?  Airline departures?  

[NickW + 2,714]

1 hour ago, Guy Daley said:

Not a single commenter on this entire thread questioned the premise that 500,000 cars were delivered to CUSTOMERS that were going to drive the car.  If the car gets delivered to a auto sales lot and it sits there waiting for a buyer, then absolutely NO oil is being displaced.

Neither was the number of 500,000 questioned either.  In this day and age where the MSM lies through their teeth about a variety of things to push certain agendas then why would the 500,000 number be taken as the honest truth?  Covid stats are pumped through the roof with false positive testing to justify lockdowns.  Deaths are attributed to covid regardless of how they died.  The swing state election results were fraudulently acquired and then aggressively pushed as the truth from the MSM but the media isn't going to lie about all things "climate change" related?  

Pull the other one.  

The notion that EVs are still selling llike hot cakes during this time where the demonrats are destoying the economy via the covid scam is ludicrous.  The idea that people SHOULD accept as truth anything that is printed is also LUDICROUS.  I've seen the photos of people lined up for MILES for free food handouts.  I do believe that info IS true because what else are people lining up for in these times besides Trump rallies?  Sporting events?  Concerts?  Movie lines?  Cruise ship departures?  Airline departures?  

 I assume he means 5 million vehicles on the road. 

Desktop calculation to give ballpark figure for the USA. Probably best to apply the the national averages which is:

25 mpg (US)

13500 miles. 

Equates to 2.7 billion US Gallons a year

Assume gasoline yield from a barrel of oil is 19 gallons (high end). That leaves about 23 gallons (give or take ref gain) to do other stuff with

390,000 barrels of oil per day. 

As EV's will generally be replacing lighter ICE vehicles I'd shave 15-20% off that figure. However it can be reworked with higher fuel economy / lower mileages for the ICE's which get replaced. 

 

Edited January 5, 2021 by NickW

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 1/2/2021 at 11:48 PM, Hiten Shah said:

offcourse Coal Diesel Petrol and then Natural gas in that order fossil fuels will be replaced. 

That cannot happen for many decades without drastically harming the economies of the countries that follow that path most quickly. China will certainly stick to coal and other fossil fuels. They are realists and will sell solar panels and wind turbines to other countries, while pretending to plan great renewable advances. They just had a large natural gas find offshore too. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 1/2/2021 at 11:52 PM, Hiten Shah said:

In Hindu Tradition whatever we get from below Earth (Patal) is considered Bad. And those who rely on that are called Asuras or Bad men while we have Sun God, Wind God, Rain God, Fire God which will never die as they are given Nectar of Amrut (will never be destroyed) by Supreme God Vishnu 

So farmers and ranchers and gardners are bad people because they use the soil. Fire, air, earth, and water are the necessities for life in all true mystical teachings. Try living without soil!

[ronwagn + 6,290]

Methinks the world will be using more fossil fuels in 2030 than it is now. Mainly due to population rise and higher income for the impoverished. 

[Guy Daley + 49]

10 hours ago, NickW said:

 I assume he means 5 million vehicles on the road. 

Desktop calculation to give ballpark figure for the USA. Probably best to apply the the national averages which is:

25 mpg (US)

13500 miles. 

Equates to 2.7 billion US Gallons a year

Assume gasoline yield from a barrel of oil is 19 gallons (high end). That leaves about 23 gallons (give or take ref gain) to do other stuff with

390,000 barrels of oil per day. 

As EV's will generally be replacing lighter ICE vehicles I'd shave 15-20% off that figure. However it can be reworked with higher fuel economy / lower mileages for the ICE's which get replaced. 

 

 

[Guy Daley + 49]

The TITLE of the initial post is:  "

In 2020, we produced and delivered half a million cars."

Why aren't you questioning the number of cars being put into use?  WHY are you accepting the number as vehicles on the road displacing fossil usage?  Are you making an assumption?  Why?  Because it feels good?  

[Guy Daley + 49]

2 minutes ago, Guy Daley said:

In 2020, we produced and delivered half a million cars."

Why aren't you questioning the number of cars being put into use?  WHY are you accepting the number as vehicles on the road displacing fossil usage?  Are you making an assumption?  Why?  Because it feels good?  

 

[Boat + 1,323]

On 1/2/2021 at 6:07 PM, RichieRich216 said:

These greenies think you can push a commodity on consumer’s that don’t want the product, Go back and look what happen to Coke when they scrapped original formula! 

500,000 Tesla pickup trucks are preordered and the factory isn’t built yet. Them darn greenies. 

[Boat + 1,323]

11 hours ago, NickW said:

 I assume he means 5 million vehicles on the road. 

Desktop calculation to give ballpark figure for the USA. Probably best to apply the the national averages which is:

25 mpg (US)

13500 miles. 

Equates to 2.7 billion US Gallons a year

Assume gasoline yield from a barrel of oil is 19 gallons (high end). That leaves about 23 gallons (give or take ref gain) to do other stuff with

390,000 barrels of oil per day. 

As EV's will generally be replacing lighter ICE vehicles I'd shave 15-20% off that figure. However it can be reworked with higher fuel economy / lower mileages for the ICE's which get replaced. 

 

Your right to be skeptical but the numbers will come out soon enough. Tesla is the most closely watched company in the world/maybe Apple. Part of Tesla success will be their new battery which has more range and much cheaper. Most of capacity of these batteries will go to the new semi and new pickup. So it might take a couple years to scale up battery production for its other cars. This is when sales are expected to explode. Just trying to be real here.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

13 hours ago, NickW said:

Do you have anything to substantiate that claim?

If it were true then it would be pointless installing any solar in Europe (except Spain), The eastern USA, and most of China. The majority of global solar deployment is in these locations.

Hrmm, it is an old claim on very old research I did a decade ago. 

0) Start by lookup up how much CO2 is required for 1m^2 of glass... http://www.greenrationbook.org.uk/resources/footprints-glass/

So, ~8tons CO2 = 1 Ton Glass.   

Average commercial panel today is ~2m^2, weighs ~30kg, produces ~500W under optimum.  Vast majority of that is glass.  Let us be generous and go with round number of 25kg.  Just the glass alone, no aluminum frame, no silicon wafers etc, by itself on a modern panel will require 8tons CO2/40 panels (1ton glass = 40*25kg)  = 1/5ton CO2 per panel or 1/10ton CO2/m^2 = 100kg, GLASS per m^2. 

I'll let you look up CO2 tonnage for a M^2 of silicon wafers(sorry I did not bother).  Think we can both do some legwork here eh?

Aluminum is easier.  But here we have a conundrum, do we use recycled CO2 cost(really isn't any) or new aluminum CO2 cost?  I'll be kind, as I have argued for a LONG time to many friends that everyone should IGNORE the initial CO2 cost of producing new aluminum but rather look at the CO2 cost of RECYCLED aluminum.  Its "cost" is superior to ALL other materials as it can be heated by electricity alone, can be alloyed easily to desired outcome, and temperature is ~low for heat treating etc.  Here I am going to give a ZERO for aluminum. 

250W average, 4 hours a day world average for a modern panel per m^2?  Sound good?  Gives a nice round number of 1kWh per m^2 per day.  Irregardless of other factors. 

Let me do the lazy thing and use USA electricity EIA "numbers" from a recent year. 

Average is roughly 1MWh ~0.5 ton CO2 or 1kWh =~0.0005ton CO2

Days of CO2 payback for the GLASS ONLY = 1kWh/day and total CO2 for glass per m^2 is roughly 0.1ton

0.1ton/0.0005 = 200 days CO2 payback for the glass installation. 

Still need roof mount(should be aluminum but I have yet to see an aluminum roof mount), silicon wafers, wiring(but can be reused so...

Let you do some legwork from here.  Or in this case mouse clicking.  I have to go do some... taxes and work 😪

[Hiten Shah + 22]

10 hours ago, ronwagn said:

So farmers and ranchers and gardners are bad people because they use the soil. Fire, air, earth, and water are the necessities for life in all true mystical teachings. Try living without soil!

There is difference between below the Earth and on the Earth and Above the Earth. Below the Earth means much under the ground. Farmers do most of the stuff on the ground.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

47 minutes ago, Hiten Shah said:

There is difference between below the Earth and on the Earth and Above the Earth. Below the Earth means much under the ground. Farmers do most of the stuff on the ground.

Want to be rich in India, build sewer systems because of their Hindu religion they REFUSE to do so as it is seen "below ground" and the lowest of the low caste... dirty. 

[NickW + 2,714]

6 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Hrmm, it is an old claim on very old research I did a decade ago. 

0) Start by lookup up how much CO2 is required for 1m^2 of glass... http://www.greenrationbook.org.uk/resources/footprints-glass/

So, ~8tons CO2 = 1 Ton Glass.   

Average commercial panel today is ~2m^2, weighs ~30kg, produces ~500W under optimum.  Vast majority of that is glass.  Let us be generous and go with round number of 25kg.  Just the glass alone, no aluminum frame, no silicon wafers etc, by itself on a modern panel will require 8tons CO2/40 panels (1ton glass = 40*25kg)  = 1/5ton CO2 per panel or 1/10ton CO2/m^2 = 100kg, GLASS per m^2. 

I'll let you look up CO2 tonnage for a M^2 of silicon wafers(sorry I did not bother).  Think we can both do some legwork here eh?

Aluminum is easier.  But here we have a conundrum, do we use recycled CO2 cost(really isn't any) or new aluminum CO2 cost?  I'll be kind, as I have argued for a LONG time to many friends that everyone should IGNORE the initial CO2 cost of producing new aluminum but rather look at the CO2 cost of RECYCLED aluminum.  Its "cost" is superior to ALL other materials as it can be heated by electricity alone, can be alloyed easily to desired outcome, and temperature is ~low for heat treating etc.  Here I am going to give a ZERO for aluminum. 

250W average, 4 hours a day world average for a modern panel per m^2?  Sound good?  Gives a nice round number of 1kWh per m^2 per day.  Irregardless of other factors. 

Let me do the lazy thing and use USA electricity EIA "numbers" from a recent year. 

Average is roughly 1MWh ~0.5 ton CO2 or 1kWh =~0.0005ton CO2

Days of CO2 payback for the GLASS ONLY = 1kWh/day and total CO2 for glass per m^2 is roughly 0.1ton

0.1ton/0.0005 = 200 days CO2 payback for the glass installation. 

Still need roof mount(should be aluminum but I have yet to see an aluminum roof mount), silicon wafers, wiring(but can be reused so...

Let you do some legwork from here.  Or in this case mouse clicking.  I have to go do some... taxes and work 😪

Use this to give a estimate of annual output per KW of capacity Global Solar Atlas

From the energy production side a 500w panel in a location with a 1200kwh /  KW  yield per year (Paris for example) with save the following CO2 levels per year.

275 Kg if displacing gas (CCGT)

575 KG if displacing coal

So thats your glass induced CO2 covered at worst within 12 months

This suggests Silicon Manufacturing | The Silicon Manufacturing Process (waferworld.com) a 500lb batch of silicon is produced using about 500lb of coal. (1 KG Silicon / 1 KG Coal / 3 Kg CO2 

10Kg of Silcon - 30 Kg of Co2

Aluminium energy intensity is 13-15Kwh / KG of Aluminium

10Kg - 150kwh of electricity - at worst 150kg of CO2

So the embodied energy is ballpark 380Kg which is covered in about 17 months if displacing gas and 8-9 months if displacing coal. 

I appreciate there are additional manufacturing costs, distribution, wiring and inverters. I suspect this brings us back to the 3-4 year payback time for a product that will last 30-40 years 

[NickW + 2,714]

7 hours ago, Boat said:

Your right to be skeptical but the numbers will come out soon enough. Tesla is the most closely watched company in the world/maybe Apple. Part of Tesla success will be their new battery which has more range and much cheaper. Most of capacity of these batteries will go to the new semi and new pickup. So it might take a couple years to scale up battery production for its other cars. This is when sales are expected to explode. Just trying to be real here.

I'm not skeptical - I am broadly supportive of EV's

The calculation was to try and estimate the impact on oil consumption from putting 500,000 EV's on the road in the USA. 

[NickW + 2,714]

15 hours ago, ronwagn said:

That cannot happen for many decades without drastically harming the economies of the countries that follow that path most quickly. China will certainly stick to coal and other fossil fuels. They are realists and will sell solar panels and wind turbines to other countries, while pretending to plan great renewable advances. They just had a large natural gas find offshore too. 

Meanwhile in the real World Chinas solar and wind programmes dwarf the rest of the worlds efforts

China frequently exceeds its energy plans in regard to building solar and wind installations by specific dates. 

Coal consumption in China has been falling since 2013. 

China produces a greater % of its electricity (4%) from solar than the USA (3%). In addition Chinas Solar water heating installations are in the region of 300GW . The USA's is in the region of 20GW. 

the USA is ahead of the game on wind by Twh produced but not by capacity. The USA is better wind country than China. 

I'm no fan of China politically but acknowledge their advances in renewable roll out is commendable. 

Edited January 6, 2021 by NickW