US unveils plans to counter China’s rise in Asia

[ronwagn + 6,290]

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/1/13/us-unveils-plans-to-counter-chinas-rise-in-asia

How will the Biden administration deal with world trade? Will he balance India and other countries to compete with China? RCW

 

US unveils plans to counter China’s rise in Asia

In a new document, the US says it wants to counter China’s ‘predatory economic practices’, ‘accelerate India’s rise’ and help Taiwan ensure its ‘freedom from coercion’.

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Well hopefully Biden will have more of a plan than Trump.  

[Marcin2 + 725]

This report shows that US has very limited, very narrow view how to play this US-China rivalry for global hegemony.

What are US policy tools ?:

- security ties with allies (military),

- further sanctions against Chinese companies (more of the economic war, mainly on technology and investment fronts)

- generally trying to decouple US from China

- trying to convince the rest of the world to emulate US decoupling.

All these policy tools have 1 feature in common: they do not engage any significant resources apart from military resources.

So only US Army + 1,000 politicians are engaged in this policy tools.

What is the  role of US business ?

 

It is difficult to win with such approach when China is the factory of the world and the global centre of globalization

plus builds trillions of infrastructure.

 

Simply put, people are not afraid of China  threat as projected by US, to stay poor and hungry.

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by Marcin2
typo

[Andrew Neopalimy + 14]

«…Economics is where the big game is played.

With the US staying out of the TPP and India out of the RCEP, a massive economic ecosystem centred on China is evolving in the region.

Here’s one statistic to ponder: in 2009, the size of the retail goods market in China was US$1.8 trillion compared with US$4 trillion in the US. Ten years later, the respective numbers were US$6 trillion and US$5.5 trillion. China’s total imports in the coming decade will likely exceed US$22 trillion.

Just as the massive US consumer market in the 1970s and 1980s defeated the Soviet Union, the massive and growing Chinese consumer market will be the ultimate decider of the big geopolitical game.

This is why the Quad’s naval exercises in the Indian Ocean will not move the needle of Asian history. Over time, the different economic interests and historical vulnerabilities of the four countries will make the rationale for the Quad less and less tenable. Here’s one leading indicator: no other Asian country – not even the staunchest US ally, South Korea – is rushing to join the Quad. The future of Asia will be written in four letters – but they are RCEP, not the Quad.»

 

Kishore Mahbubani, a distinguished fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Asia Research Institute, is the author of Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3120234/why-quad-doesnt-spell-future-asias-relationship-china

[Boat + 1,323]

Marcin2 throws out the same type of regurtated spin like Trump supporters. The US is not afraid of China and has never been. However the US is irritated when China hacks and gets tech for the F-35 for example. The US is on the hook for protecting countries like S Korea, Japan etc since WWII. So we get irritated a bit when China claims the South China Sea beyond the traditional Ocean boundaries. The US at some point will use trade as a weapon against these silly infractions that in the long run only undermines Chinas own strength. 
Traders and companies trade at their own risk with China knowing that in the blink of an eye their money could be poof. 
I am disappointed and supprised the US hasent protected Hong Cong by using severe sanctions as a deterrent to control. 
As China continues to shoot themselves in the foot maybe the US will circle back to Hong Cong and include them with protection in the world of trade for the free.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

1 hour ago, Boat said:

The US at some point will use trade as a weapon against these silly infractions that in the long run only undermines Chinas own strength. 

This is a curious statement of yours. How do you suppose trade can be used as a weapon against building out the Spratley Islands, where China has invested hundreds of billions of dollars for bases?

I'm sure you have some concept in mind, but I can't visualize it. Thanks.

[Boat + 1,323]

Out of Chinas top 10 trading partners only Russia is not a US allie. With cooperation from the other 8 as a group they simply hold Chinas economy in their hands. 
Trade is actually more powerful than militaries if the top economies in the world work together against a rouge country.

Edited February 3, 2021 by Boat

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

1 hour ago, Boat said:

Out of Chinas top 10 trading partners only Russia is not a US allie. With cooperation from the other 8 as a group they simply hold Chinas economy in their hands. 
Trade is actually more powerful than militaries if the top economies in the world work together against a rouge country.

Strange of you quoting Trumps policies. 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[SUZNV + 1,197]

9 hours ago, Boat said:

Marcin2 throws out the same type of regurtated spin like Trump supporters. The US is not afraid of China and has never been. However the US is irritated when China hacks and gets tech for the F-35 for example. The US is on the hook for protecting countries like S Korea, Japan etc since WWII. So we get irritated a bit when China claims the South China Sea beyond the traditional Ocean boundaries. The US at some point will use trade as a weapon against these silly infractions that in the long run only undermines Chinas own strength. 
Traders and companies trade at their own risk with China knowing that in the blink of an eye their money could be poof. 
I am disappointed and supprised the US hasent protected Hong Cong by using severe sanctions as a deterrent to control. 
As China continues to shoot themselves in the foot maybe the US will circle back to Hong Cong and include them with protection in the world of trade for the free.

China owned companies are IPO in the US. Lots of retirement pensions and 401k are investing in emerging market  with 90% of them are China.  California Public Employees’ Retirement System have holdings in Chinese defense firms. China can buy any company in the US freely to have access to patent while US companies when get into China have to do partnership with a Chinese company and sharing tech (lots of stealing like ARM Chinese).

Most elections in US nowadays are Mainstreet vs Wall Streets. Midwest Red States vs blue States near Asia or Europe.

Mainstreet: shale oil, mining, farming, real estates builders, landlords, domestic businesses, military, manufacturing industries. These are heavily affected by raising business taxes. Favor low tax and tariff/trade war, lean toward nationalism, proud of the US history. A bit hate illegal immigrants. Tends to love the traditional way, somewhat don't like excessive welfare. Love the word "God". A bit MYOB, rude against political correctness but straight. Tend to vote for Conservative Party (lots of RINO with Arrogant political elites and opportunists though).

Wall Street: Global corporations, banks, investment funds, green energy industry (depend on China lithium batteries) and government spending. Love no tariff, love spreading money for global images but lose influence to China and Allies (looks at WHO and WTO or even UN). Love raising taxes as they can dodge most of their incomes from oversea. Love open borders, love outsources, love buying oil, love political correctness and reparation, shame of US slavery history, lots of inspiration and touching emotions, very sensitive, tend to vote for Progressive  Party. Love a career in telling minorities or the poor are victims of US system, love using the words like "science" or "experts". Control Freak yet charming.

A mixed of both would be called SWING States.

No matter you like Trump are not. It has been  that way since the end of Cold War as a winner and ignorance of the threats from the inside, long before Trump's term.

Edited February 4, 2021 by SUZNV

[Boat + 1,323]

4 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Strange of you quoting Trumps policies. 

Strange Trump went at it alone instead of getting our allies to help leverage the impact. As a result the trade imbalance went up. Not down. 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I would suggest that when the time comes for the United States to confront China, there will be few if any allies. A confrontation will likely come b/c of Taiwan. But who will join us?

The UK is pretty much out, due to history. Hong Kong was obtained by the British Empire via an illegal opium trade, which resulted in the first Opium War. By that time, China was pretty thoroughly addicted. The second Opium War involved France as well--so there goes the European Union's role in all of this. The handover of Hong Kong in 1997 basically was giving back a province to its rightful owner. The U.S. can enjoy trading with HK as a sovereign state all it wishes, but there is at this point almost zero autonomy of HK from the Chinese Communist Party. 

Taiwan is more in question. There was no handover of Taiwan. Plus, Taiwan has its own constitution. Taiwan will have to be taken by force.

Therein lies the mystery of the Spratly Islands. For a long time, those islands have been on maritime charts as atolls, reefs, outcroppings--the remains of useless horsts that were left behind in a fault-block. If you look at SpaceKnow photographs from 2009, they were nothing more than troublesome little cays on a ridge line in the sea. Before the satellite eyes of all the countries of the world, the Chinese built those reef remnants into well-organized island bases. The U.S. did absolutely nothing as these jagged protrusions in the South China Sea--far, far from Mainland China--were built into military installments. Though the Philippines are the closest and you can see the circle of an atoll involving the Philippines, and though they claim the manmade islands, there is nothing they can do. The same is true for Japan and Malaysia, who also claim them.

One has to ask the question why the Chinese built out the South China Sea islands. Well, about 25% of all crude oil goes through that part of the world; there's that. But what will China do, hijack supertankers? No, these islands were meant for strikes. 

Ms. Tsai, who is becoming surer by the day that Taiwan is an independent, sovereign state and was reassured by President Biden that U.S. resolve is "ironclad," was forced to endure a veritable barrage of Chinese fighter planes and nuclear-enabled bombers entering the outer marker, intruding into the identification zone of Taiwan, two days in a row. The U. S. State Department sent a rebuke, trotting out those "Six Assurances" from the Reagan Administration. The Teddy Rosevelt group was sailed into the S. China Sea: that beats the Six Assurances, I suppose.

Here's where we are: The Covid-19 virus was used as a bioweapon. I don't think Xi intended for it to get out of the lab at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, but when it did he neglected to warn the world for over a week. China has benefited mightily from this global disaster: the U.S. GDP has gone into the toilet over the last year (along with the UK & EU) and China's barely took a hit. Like him or not, President Trump was the only one who called Xi out on the virus. To Mr. Biden, referring to it as the Wuhan Virus or the China Virus is to be xenophobic--he will not go there. Led by Trump, Boris Johnson raised his hackles, but then he got sick and also realized 5G, Huwai, bad problem, so retreated to say no more.

China is emboldened. Everyone thinks trade sanctions will do the job. But if you're the UK or the EU, or Russia or the KSA, are you willing to lose China as a trading partner after having your economy decimated? I don't think so. What about the U.S.? Well, it would appear that Tesla is building a giant Gigafactory there, and lest we forget, something like 80% of all our pharmaceutical precursors are put together in China, along with our testing kits and reagents. For crying out loud, we don't even make our own Penicillin anymore! Try to sever ties with China right now, all at once, and you can say hello to 1960 medical practices all over again. 

In short, there is no plan to counter China's rise in Asia. There will be no plan until China makes a run on Taiwan. And that's going to be gut-check time, because the United States is very likely going to be on her own. If Mr. Biden's energy plan goes through, our military can run through our strategic oil reserves in about six weeks. So far, 2021 is not shaping up to be a great year. But it could well get worse.  

  

[surrept33 + 609]

I think it's interesting to see a rush of the investment of the private sector (Google, Facebook, Amazon, Walmart) in countries like India (where there is also massive Chinese trade penetration, but India has not accepted any of the "belt and road"-type of chinese investment). 

For example, https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/16/google-facebook-invest-india-reliance-jio-smartphone-tech-china/

(jio is a mirror or 'oil' in hindi btw). It'll be one of of the world's largest 5g networks in a few years, and due to the government's need to formalize a historically very informal commercial sector (who paid with cash to avoid paying taxes), a lot of money has been very quickly digitized. 

As for the energy sector, India is extremely energy hungry now (probably the largest country in growth of the sector), and we can't let it go the way of China and build huge amounts of coal plants. IMHO, a responsible thing for the Biden administration to do is fast track this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India–United_States_Civil_Nuclear_Agreement

and the eventual joining of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Suppliers_Group (instead, India has had to develop a lot of Thorium-based power https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thorium-based_nuclear_power)

However, uranium is much more mature, and it can be scaled up quicker. Unlike the Pakistan-North Korea proliferation, there is IMHO less risk, and India's size is a better counterweight against China's rise in Asia. 

Edited February 4, 2021 by surrept33

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

4 hours ago, Boat said:

Strange Trump went at it alone instead of getting our allies to help leverage the impact. As a result the trade imbalance went up. Not down. 

Oh brother.  How many times do we have to hash this one out?

Trump went to all other nations, including speaking at the United Nations, about his plans to confront and tariff China for all of the reasons known today.  Reasons that were not being addressed by anyone.  What happened?  The "allies" laughed it off, even openly in the UN.  Trump's speeches made it clear that he wanted all the Allies to recognize what was going on, join the U.S. in confronting China and taking strong steps to reverse what was going on with China.

Much later in time, the "allies", realizing that they had better join in and confront the issues that Trump had been taking action on for months or even over a year, confronted Trump and had the nerve to say that the U.S. had to do it their way.  Trump was already deep in action and told the "allies" (who are we kidding: the EU) they could join in or piss off, he had already been implementing his plans for months.

Show us the data that shows the trade imbalance going up instead of down.  If you have it, let's see how it breaks down, or in other words: What it's leaving out.  I'll believe it when I see it.  (please don't bother with CNN, NBC in any form, or others of their ilk as "references".  They are not references; they are left wing mouthpieces.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

3 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

In short, there is no plan to counter China's rise in Asia. There will be no plan until China makes a run on Taiwan. And that's going to be gut-check time, because the United States is very likely going to be on her own. If Mr. Biden's energy plan goes through, our military can run through our strategic oil reserves in about six weeks. So far, 2021 is not shaping up to be a great year. But it could well get worse.  

@Gerry Maddoux

Your entire comment shows incredible insight.  The only thing I would counter is a minor thing, if you're not Taiwanese, that is.  I would say there IS a plan, and that plan is to do nothing.  IF, and it's a big IF, China decides to take a run at Taiwan it is my estimation at this time that the Biden administration will do nothing but postulate, and not very strongly at that.  And for the same reasons you negate support from all the other nations. 

The devastation that has been wrought on the West from the virus will indeed be an excuse to resume, at full throttle, all trade with China and to stop badgering them on IP theft, international business fraud and strongarm tactics, currency manipulation, etc.

[Boat + 1,323]

6 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Oh brother.  How many times do we have to hash this one out?

Trump went to all other nations, including speaking at the United Nations, about his plans to confront and tariff China for all of the reasons known today.  Reasons that were not being addressed by anyone.  What happened?  The "allies" laughed it off, even openly in the UN.  Trump's speeches made it clear that he wanted all the Allies to recognize what was going on, join the U.S. in confronting China and taking strong steps to reverse what was going on with China.

Much later in time, the "allies", realizing that they had better join in and confront the issues that Trump had been taking action on for months or even over a year, confronted Trump and had the nerve to say that the U.S. had to do it their way.  Trump was already deep in action and told the "allies" (who are we kidding: the EU) they could join in or piss off, he had already been implementing his plans for months.

Show us the data that shows the trade imbalance going up instead of down.  If you have it, let's see how it breaks down, or in other words: What it's leaving out.  I'll believe it when I see it.  (please don't bother with CNN, NBC in any form, or others of their ilk as "references".  They are not references; they are left wing mouthpieces.

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html

Work on your Google skills bud. I’m sapposed to be retired. The last couple months of 2020 show a pretty much business as usual with China. 
I posted my appreation

6 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Oh brother.  How many times do we have to hash this one out?

Trump went to all other nations, including speaking at the United Nations, about his plans to confront and tariff China for all of the reasons known today.  Reasons that were not being addressed by anyone.  What happened?  The "allies" laughed it off, even openly in the UN.  Trump's speeches made it clear that he wanted all the Allies to recognize what was going on, join the U.S. in confronting China and taking strong steps to reverse what was going on with China.

Much later in time, the "allies", realizing that they had better join in and confront the issues that Trump had been taking action on for months or even over a year, confronted Trump and had the nerve to say that the U.S. had to do it their way.  Trump was already deep in action and told the "allies" (who are we kidding: the EU) they could join in or piss off, he had already been implementing his plans for months.

Show us the data that shows the trade imbalance going up instead of down.  If you have it, let's see how it breaks down, or in other words: What it's leaving out.  I'll believe it when I see it.  (please don't bother with CNN, NBC in any form, or others of their ilk as "references".  They are not references; they are left wing mouthpieces.

 https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

6 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

The devastation that has been wrought on the West from the virus will indeed be an excuse to resume, at full throttle, all trade with China and to stop badgering them on IP theft, international business fraud and strongarm tactics, currency manipulation, etc.

Precisely!

And in the process, the horrible, unimaginable atrocity of allowing the virus to get on airplanes leaving Wuhan for 92 destinations all over the world when Xi's people knew very well that there was person-to-person spread will go unspoken and unpunished. Xi's people knew on Christmas Day 2019 about the contagion (a family of three visited a clinic; the parents were both ill but their young son also had it--by scan--and was asymptomatic). Not to get too preachy but this was nothing short of bioterrorism dressed up in a Halloween bat costume. This was a monumental killing off of a vulnerable population, and a stoppage of the world's economic machinery.

And lest we issue all blame on President Xi, it should be pointed out that Dr. Fauci had access to all the same TV stations as the rest of us. He saw the Chinese Lysol Brigade lined up twelve abreast, spraying down anything the human hand might touch, the cough might hit. Then he had another couple of weeks to see the devastation of the home country of his grandparents--Italy--a mass murder from Xi's virus. So we reacted by . . . . . . making Dr. Fauci man of the year. 

It's just too weird for words, how the world has let Xi off the hook, all for filthy lucre--to use a biblical term--because this is nothing short of biblical. The world was turned into a massive killing field by the man in charge of the CCP! Think of that! From Christmas Day 2019 until the Lunar New Year began (on January 15, 2020), ushering in the Year of the Metal Rat, the president of China, echoed by the World Health Organization, then echoed by Dr. Anthony Fauci, reassured the world that everything was under control, don't wear a mask, this is not a contagion, and Xi gets no punishment from the World Court and Fauci becomes the new Norman Rockwell face of American medicine at its very finest! 

Sorry to go off on these pages, and to rehash old stuff, but I'm just astounded at what's happening in the country where I was born and which I always thought had a moral center and possessed the strength of character to react in an appropriate manner. I just lost my sixth friend from this thing and my outrage has grown, not diminished.  

[Marcin2 + 725]

I suppose all commenters at this thread are Americans, and thus you miss 1 fundamental thing about China (or US)

China, the same as US is a very big, very powerful country.

Both US and China are economic superpowers, the league of their own.

No country can loose access to US or Chinese consumer market.

US and Chinese consumer markets (as measured by retail sales of consumer goods) are very similar in size and the largest in the world.

And Chinese market grows relatively fast and will by all predictions become twice the size of US market for consumer goods in 10-12 years.

No country can confront China or US, even if coerced by the other to do so.

Just a remark from a citizen of a small country, that cannot ever confront China, and cannot confrnt US either.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

There are those who would argue that China has reached its Malthusian Limit. 

Certainly, from the standpoint of energy, it has. Without the thousands of little teapot high-sulfur coal-fired utility plants, China would be horribly electricity-insecure . . . with insufficient energy to provide heating and cooling, much less for charging electric cars. Ponder that for a moment: In the country with the strongest growth in EV's, much of the electricity is being supplied by coal. 

And from the standpoint of food security, China reached its Malthusian Limit long ago.

The existential itch won't be from economic sanctions, however, but from China's ineluctable need to count Taiwan as one of its own. And running counter to that is the fact that fully one-half of Taiwanese believe themselves to be fiercely independent, a sovereign state. This belief has been reinforced by American rhetoric, especially espoused by Mr. Biden. President Xi almost certainly thinks that Mr. Biden would go weak in the knees if Communist China invaded Taiwan-the Republic of China. He is likely running the Monte Carlo likelihood on retaliation by the Americans if he decided to pull the trigger. 

This simple act--President Xi deciding to incorporate Taiwan as part of Communist China--would change the world. If Mr. Biden did nothing, he would expose himself as an empty suit, a paper tiger, or whatever cliche you wish to use. If he backs up "ironclad resolve" rhetoric with retaliation, it means a shooting war with China and perhaps even a little burst of nuclear. 

This is the most dangerous time in Sino-American relations. Ever. This is more than Thucydides' Trap.  

2 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

No country can confront China or US, even if coerced by the other to do so.

I believe that the U.S. was confronted by China . . . using a bioweapon. 

I believe that the U.S. might well have to confront China . . . using missiles. 

At this point, it is up to Xi to decide just how badly he wants and needs Taiwan. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

5 hours ago, Boat said:

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html

Work on your Google skills bud. I’m sapposed to be retired. The last couple months of 2020 show a pretty much business as usual with China. 
I posted my appreation

Alright.  Like I said in my comment, let's see how it breaks down then, using the data from census.gov:

• Trump took office on Jan. 20, 2017.
• By Jan. 20, 2019, Trump's policies were kicking in and the trend was drastically reversing.
• By Jan. 20, 2020, the trend hit its lowest point in over 10 years.
• By Nov. 2020, imports had surged back up to about where it had been at the beginning of Trump's term.
  • According to Bloomberg and every other thinking individual on the planet, the surge back up was due to the imports of medical equipment, PPE, pharmaceuticals and electronics.  This happened to every other country as well since China had cornered the market for those types of products, and many more.

So, as Trump stated himself many times: by January 2020 the trade imbalance had been reversed to more than 10 year lows, and then the pandemic was foisted upon the world and countries had no choice but to get supplies from China.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

I believe that the U.S. was confronted by China . . . using a bioweapon. 

I believe that the U.S. might well have to confront China . . . using missiles. 

At this point, it is up to Xi to decide just how badly he wants and needs Taiwan. 

Again, great full comment.  President for Life Xi and his minions had better watch how far they push the narrative of "taking back" Taiwan.  They may well find their rhetoric ends up leaving them with no choice but to fight a losing battle, if we are to believe some when they say China cannot realistically take Taiwan given current forces and equipment (I don't believe that, but that's just my opinion and I'm not a military expert by any stretch).

There is much more at stake than the usurpation and occupation of democratic Taiwan, but there are few issues that would rouse Chinese nationalism more in support of the CCP, and thereby Xi.  Or he could face the Chinese tradition of the purge.  Who knows?

Edited February 4, 2021 by Dan Warnick

[surrept33 + 609]

China is everyone's frenemy. 

The WTO probably needs certain types of reform (especially for the rise of digital economies), but Trump's anti-WTO actions probably help the EU (or anyone not China or the US and what havoc a single executive can do). 

Consider US vs China cases in the WTO:

https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/us-china-trade-disputes-wto-usually-sides-united-states

[Boat + 1,323]

1 hour ago, Dan Warnick said:

Alright.  Like I said in my comment, let's see how it breaks down then, using the data from census.gov:

• Trump took office on Jan. 20, 2017.
• By Jan. 20, 2019, Trump's policies were kicking in and the trend was drastically reversing.
• By Jan. 20, 2020, the trend hit its lowest point in over 10 years.
• By Nov. 2020, imports had surged back up to about where it had been at the beginning of Trump's term.
  • According to Bloomberg and every other thinking individual on the planet, the surge back up was due to the imports of medical equipment, PPE, pharmaceuticals and electronics.  This happened to every other country as well since China had cornered the market for those types of products, and many more.

So, as Trump stated himself many times: by January 2020 the trade imbalance had been reversed to more than 10 year lows, and then the pandemic was foisted upon the world and countries had no choice but to get supplies from China.

Your chart was much better and detailed. You could say there was the beginning of a trend closing the balance. So I stand corrected. Now we will see what Biden does and how that chart reacts. But so far there seems little behavior change in its policies towards the US and the countries in the South China Sea Region.

 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

21 hours ago, Boat said:

Strange Trump went at it alone instead of getting our allies to help leverage the impact. As a result the trade imbalance went up. Not down. 

Boat gathering a coalition of nations to enforce trade between two nations could and would be considered a aggressive act of war, the US is fully capable of engaging with China at any level. With that being said Trump and China were getting close to a agreement. It was then the trade agreement turned into the Covid accord. 

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

4 hours ago, Boat said:

Your chart was much better and detailed. You could say there was the beginning of a trend closing the balance. So I stand corrected. Now we will see what Biden does and how that chart reacts. But so far there seems little behavior change in its policies towards the US and the countries in the South China Sea Region.

 

Thank you. 

For me, though, the financial/trade actions Trump took were the tools he used to combat the much larger problems of IP theft (the big stuff: cutting edge technology, not just music and the like, although those are huge issues if you're in the music industry) and currency manipulation.  In essence, he went after China in a very public way that openly and unapologetically involved the industrial and general populations of both countries.  It is my position that Trump somehow knew, or was successfully convinced by advisors, that IP theft enforcement is a nearly impossible breach to combat via what are considered to be "normal channels", such as the ineffectual WTO and other similar organizations.  The only way to curb it is through the pocketbooks of John Q. Public and industry, and China's balance of trade was/is, as I mentioned, simply a tool to get at the larger infractions. 

The bonus, Trump knew, was that he could point to successes regarding trade and make his base, largely middle class working families, see and feel that he was reversing the trend of jobs going to China or other countries, such as the trend had been for the last 30 years since "Globalization" was instituted far and wide within industries of every color and size.

Lastly, tariffs, by design, only directly hurt the buyers so the buyers have to stop or reduce buying for them to have any desired impact on the producers.  If those producers are, in this case, U.S. companies that have closed up shop in the U.S. and set up shop in China, then one would expect to see some of those producers coming home.  But again, Trump used tariffs to pressure China specifically, so if a producer that had been operating from within China packed up and moved operations to Vietnam or Thailand or India, it still had the effect that Trump was ultimately after.  And it was working.

[surrept33 + 609]

I think the concept of intellectual property needs a overhaul anyways. We don't live in a world where it's inefficient to just search through all of the world's patents in any language in any country. The whole patent system seems broken to me (because software ate the world, then software as a service ate packaged software, then all the software as a services became chains and antichains of products themselves).  We live in an era where, at least in the physics community, people generally agree that that nondestructive testing is very important. In order to make progress in figuring out where bottlenecks are, this needs reverse engineering (especially of mechanical stuff) and usage of inverse methods (to statistically perturb *emulations* of quantum mechanical computational methods to match realistic physics). I think the consensus is that much of this should be open access fundamental research anyways, because the cost to society (all the societies) is too high for any one country anyways. Yeah, it's kind of a weird time in the world (statistically at least, the world is getting more "fair", less crime ridden, but it depends on what "scope" you look at things with, and we tend to think the world revolves around us), but there still is many uncertain tragedy of the commons pathologies you could imagine. Imho we all get smarter when we just take the best from what we observe in each culture, appropriate it to a specific context, and pass the torch on to the next generation. At least, we can vastly improve the (generalized) rate of "diffusion" of knowledge between global and local states via the (puritanical exporting of) things like federalism now via limitless education.