US unveils plans to counter China’s rise in Asia

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

USS John McCain just sailed through the Taiwan Strait. 

No takeover of Taiwan without a fight, it would appear. And that's very good news. 

Beijing can build out the Spratly Islands--they just need to be careful what they use them for. 

[surrept33 + 612]

All hail the 7th fleet!

https://www.economist.com/asia/2018/06/21/china-has-militarised-the-south-china-sea-and-got-away-with-it

I assume all of this power projection is about oil or natural gas in the south china sea (will it ever be economical? i dunno. is it it a north-sea like play or a barent sea-like play?). China has a lot of natural gas supposedly, but it's like the monterey shale. Most of it either too deep or non-flat to make traditional fracking (like in the permian or the bakken) worth it. They've certainly invested a lot of research on it. I remember when the USGS reduced the recoverable oil of the Monterey Shale By 96% circa 2012. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by surrept33

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

37 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

USS John McCain just sailed through the Taiwan Strait. 

No takeover of Taiwan without a fight, it would appear. And that's very good news. 

Beijing can build out the Spratly Islands--they just need to be careful what they use them for. 

Everything I read that's coming out of Beijing gives me the impression that the CCP is itching for a fight, any fight.  Will cooler heads prevail, or will ego?

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

1 hour ago, Dan Warnick said:

Everything I read that's coming out of Beijing gives me the impression that the CCP is itching for a fight, any fight.  Will cooler heads prevail, or will ego?

i think you're right. I understand that the Chinese have watched the devastation by the virus in the United States with something akin to wonderment--they're pretty sure we're on our back foot, weak, and utterly devoid of will. 

The incursions into the Taiwanese identification zone by Chinese nuclear-enabled bombers and fighters was likely flushing out that thesis. In response, our deployment of the USS John McCain into the Taiwan Strait was surprising (at least to me) and showed some teeth. 

But my bet is that Xi feels the window of opportunity is closing. And that if he's ever going to make a move it has to be soon . . . before the American "recovery." 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

2 hours ago, surrept33 said:

all of this power projection is about oil or natural gas in the south china sea (will it ever be economical?

Good observation. A few decades past, it was felt that the Spratly Islands--back when they were just reefs and outcroppings--were on the same order of magnitude as Kuwait in terms of oil and gas. Then U.S. engineers decided that the oil-rich area was more in the margin of the South China Sea.  

I always figured they were being built out by the Chinese because of strategic reasons, but maybe it's for the oil. China is going to really need a lot of oil and LNG over the next decade, as it weens off coal.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

7 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

USS John McCain just sailed through the Taiwan Strait. 

No takeover of Taiwan without a fight, it would appear. And that's very good news. 

Beijing can build out the Spratly Islands--they just need to be careful what they use them for. 

I have joking said welcome to the card game, it is a 7 card game duce's and one eyed jacks are the wild cards. Today tomahawk missiles have been retro fitted to engage shipping on the high seas. It appears there stand off range would be 1000 miles. It is also known that a 60 missile volley has already been practiced under far less circumstances.

The Chinese are by no means uniformed nor fool's, does one actually believe any country would expose any type of naval intrusion with the threat of a few hundred low tech missiles coming ones way?..Actually 50 would do quite nicely...making a impact does come to mind. Low tech at its finest and deadliest..

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/18427/the-army-eyes-getting-into-the-ship-killing-business-with-this-cruise-missile

The sooner both sides quit posturing the better, It is a fools game at best. Unless one is feeling extremely lucky. There once was time this game was called.....

https://www.denexa.com/blog/mexican-sweat/#:~:text=They only stop when they,does not actually beat it.

Mexican Sweat is a simple poker game that turns poker on its head. In most poker game, you’re betting based on what you think your opponents have and what you know you have. But in Mexican Sweat, you know exactly as much information about both your hand and your opponents’ hands as they do, which isn’t everything!

We’re not entirely clear on what, if anything, this game has to do with Mexico. But the “sweating” is very clear—the suspense of worrying about whether a kill card will pop up next can definitely get you sweating!

Object of Mexican Sweat

The object of Mexican Sweat is to have the best five-card poker hand, out of seven cards, without having a kill card in your hand.

So are we feeling lucky are we?

 

 

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

Hotone, since you laughed at my remarks, I'd be interested in your own take. 

I'm certainly no expert on China. 

I'm just a typical American with more than a little anxiety about China's intentions . . . and how we'll react to it. 

Thanks.

[frankfurter + 562]

On 2/4/2021 at 5:32 PM, Dan Warnick said:

@Gerry Maddoux

Your entire comment shows incredible insight.  The only thing I would counter is a minor thing, if you're not Taiwanese, that is.  I would say there IS a plan, and that plan is to do nothing.  IF, and it's a big IF, China decides to take a run at Taiwan it is my estimation at this time that the Biden administration will do nothing but postulate, and not very strongly at that.  And for the same reasons you negate support from all the other nations. 

The devastation that has been wrought on the West from the virus will indeed be an excuse to resume, at full throttle, all trade with China and to stop badgering them on IP theft, international business fraud and strongarm tactics, currency manipulation, etc.

No. Your comments and those of Maddoux show incredible ignorance and arrogance.

[frankfurter + 562]

24 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Hotone, since you laughed at my remarks, I'd be interested in your own take. 

I'm certainly no expert on China. 

I'm just a typical American with more than a little anxiety about China's intentions . . . and how we'll react to it. 

Thanks.

Well, at least now you are being honest with yourself and others. Like others here, your ignorance, indoctrination, and hysteria are overwhelming your thinking. China's intentions are very simple: never again to be invaded by colonial powers; to be sovereign; to enable its citizens to have a wealth and standard of living comparable to that of the imperial west; to be an equal partner in world trade without the threats from the US. But murcans cannot allow those evil communists to have a decent standard of living, can you?  You cannot allow China or any other country to trade with others freely, can you? You must force all countries to use your toxic USD to buy oil, no other currency can be used, correct?  You must force all other countries not to use Chinese tech, such as 5G, so you can ensure US dominance in communications, and so ensure the US can spy completely upon all citizens of the world.  You must ensure your president can assassinate anybody in the world at whim without any evidence and certainly without a trial. And much more than this. Basically, there is no way murcans are gonna allow them evil commies to have what you have: even if this means incurring a global nuclear war over some island of no value to the US.

[frankfurter + 562]

10 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

USS John McCain just sailed through the Taiwan Strait. 

No takeover of Taiwan without a fight, it would appear. And that's very good news. 

Beijing can build out the Spratly Islands--they just need to be careful what they use them for. 

very good news to have a fight?  well, at least now we see the war monger that you are.

I do wonder what you and 380 millions murcans would do if a Chinese frigate were to sail into the Gulf of Mexico.  After all, freedom of navigation means freedom for all.

I suppose you have not yet learned the adage; be careful what you wish for.

 

[Symmetry + 109]

On 2/4/2021 at 2:48 PM, Dan Warnick said:

Alright.  Like I said in my comment, let's see how it breaks down then, using the data from census.gov:

• Trump took office on Jan. 20, 2017.
• By Jan. 20, 2019, Trump's policies were kicking in and the trend was drastically reversing.
• By Jan. 20, 2020, the trend hit its lowest point in over 10 years.
• By Nov. 2020, imports had surged back up to about where it had been at the beginning of Trump's term.
  • According to Bloomberg and every other thinking individual on the planet, the surge back up was due to the imports of medical equipment, PPE, pharmaceuticals and electronics.  This happened to every other country as well since China had cornered the market for those types of products, and many more.

So, as Trump stated himself many times: by January 2020 the trade imbalance had been reversed to more than 10 year lows, and then the pandemic was foisted upon the world and countries had no choice but to get supplies from China.

Note the balance improvement was vastly dominated my import reductions, not increased exports.

Reduced importing / purchasing may be a negative indicator of economic health.  Not buying stuff from other countries could just mean consumers are broke and/or industries are holding back on expansion due to market fears.  No, not everything can or even should be made domestically.

The price of Gold is a good measure of market fears and the price of gold is very high.

 

 

 

 

[Hotone + 412]

1 hour ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Hotone, since you laughed at my remarks, I'd be interested in your own take. 

I'm certainly no expert on China. 

I'm just a typical American with more than a little anxiety about China's intentions . . . and how we'll react to it. 

Thanks.

I have worked a little with the Taiwanese and have been impressed by their technical prowess.  It is no coincidence that they are a high tech powerhouse, especially in semiconductors - so much so that 2 of their companies account for more than 60% of the global foundry output. 

About 7 years back, I met a Chinese person who was rather pessimistic about the future of China. She told me that during the turmoil of the last century, all the smart and capable people fled China to go overseas, to Taiwan, SE Asia and elsewhere, leaving the poor, uneducated and dumb people behind and so it was hard for China to progress.

Of course from an emotional and ideological point of view, China wants to reunify Taiwan with the mainland. However, the territory itself isn't all that valuable.  The most valuable asset of interest to the CCP is the people of Taiwan.  A war that kills off a lot of the people or cause them to emigrate will be counterproductive to China's aims. 

I think that the current aggressive actions are just posturing.  The Chinese are very patient and can look at this issue in terms of decades if not hundreds of years.  They would not be in a hurry to invade Taiwan unless it repudiates the one-China concept.  This is just my opinion.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Hotone

[RichieRich216 + 454]

Total BS, Robinette is going to help them surpass us Economically, He is in there pockets! They have so much on him and Family! 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

8 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Good observation. A few decades past, it was felt that the Spratly Islands--back when they were just reefs and outcroppings--were on the same order of magnitude as Kuwait in terms of oil and gas. Then U.S. engineers decided that the oil-rich area was more in the margin of the South China Sea.  

I always figured they were being built out by the Chinese because of strategic reasons, but maybe it's for the oil. China is going to really need a lot of oil and LNG over the next decade, as it weens off coal.

I posted about this some time ago, perhaps 2 years. There's the whole dotted line map and China's lunatic claims dating back to when they were conquered by Genghis Khan and the Mongols. Their Fantasy is that they are the inheritors of that vast empire. The Spratley islands are so they can (wrongly) claim economic exclusion zones comparable to what every country enjoys at their rightful borders. The Chinese are well aware it's fiction, but they don't care, they just installed Xiden, nee Biden as their defacto Manchurian Candidate. 

Watch the last third of the Video here to see exactly where and how this was achieved. That aircraft carrier isn't there under Xiden's orders, there's a shadow commander in chief calling shots. If there can be two popes there can be two presidents. 

 

[Hotone + 412]

57 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

I posted about this some time ago, perhaps 2 years. There's the whole dotted line map and China's lunatic claims dating back to when they were conquered by Genghis Khan and the Mongols. Their Fantasy is that they are the inheritors of that vast empire. The Spratley islands are so they can (wrongly) claim economic exclusion zones comparable to what every country enjoys at their rightful borders. The Chinese are well aware it's fiction, but they don't care, they just installed Xiden, nee Biden as their defacto Manchurian Candidate. 

Watch the last third of the Video here to see exactly where and how this was achieved. That aircraft carrier isn't there under Xiden's orders, there's a shadow commander in chief calling shots. If there can be two popes there can be two presidents. 

 

The video's gone, do you have another link?  Regarding the Mongols, was the territory under Genghis or was it under Kublai? In the latter case, he is considered a Chinese emperor, but he did not inherit all of the territories conquered by the Mongols.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Hotone

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

2 minutes ago, Hotone said:

The video's gone, do you have another link?  Regarding the Mongols, was the territory under Genghis or was it under Kublai - in the latter case, he is considered a Chinese emperor.

Try this link

Also This article is topical to Taiwan

Genghis, but the Mongols were the rulers of the Chinese, Kublai Khan didn't have a drop of Han blood

 

[Hotone + 412]

21 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Try this link

Also This article is topical to Taiwan

Genghis, but the Mongols were the rulers of the Chinese, Kublai Khan didn't have a drop of Han blood

 

So?  Kamala Harris has Indian (and African /Jamaican) blood, but she is going to be the next POTUS, and not Prime Minister of India.  That will happen before the next election. 😅😂 

Thanks for the links.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Hotone

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 1/23/2021 at 11:43 AM, Marcin2 said:

This report shows that US has very limited, very narrow view how to play this US-China rivalry for global hegemony.

What are US policy tools ?:

- security ties with allies (military),

- further sanctions against Chinese companies (more of the economic war, mainly on technology and investment fronts)

- generally trying to decouple US from China

- trying to convince the rest of the world to emulate US decoupling.

All these policy tools have 1 feature in common: they do not engage any significant resources apart from military resources.

So only US Army + 1,000 politicians are engaged in this policy tools.

What is the  role of US business ?

 

It is difficult to win with such approach when China is the factory of the world and the global centre of globalization

plus builds trillions of infrastructure.

 

Simply put, people are not afraid of China  threat as projected by US, to stay poor and hungry.

 

https://yourstory.com/smbstory/india-ready-supply-weapons-systems-ior-countries-aatmanirbhar-bharat India is not afraid of China but is preparing to defend the region. Their population will surpass China's and their diaspora is about as large. China has many countries that will prepare to defend themselves in South Asia. 

[frankfurter + 562]

13 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

https://yourstory.com/smbstory/india-ready-supply-weapons-systems-ior-countries-aatmanirbhar-bharat India is not afraid of China but is preparing to defend the region. Their population will surpass China's and their diaspora is about as large. China has many countries that will prepare to defend themselves in South Asia. 

uh, which region?  uh, have you ever been to India? can you speak from direct experience and knowledge?

You seem entirely unaware other countries hold India in contempt. The US had Modi on a terrorist list. Or, have you forgotten this key fact?

Despite this, India is a prime concern to the US, to use India as southern flank against China. gotta pity the ignorant Indians tho, as they seem incapable of learning from their mistakes; firstly, they served a foreign master for 200 years; secondly, now again they serve a foreign master; and both foreign masters were/are in decline. Following the Trump/Modi hug fest (a disgusting spectacle), Modi feels emboldened to challenge China again for the border. murcans are entirely ignorant that border was agreed by both China and India, following India's defeat of sending her forces into China, which for +50 years has been labelled the LAC. Over 50 years, China has made many offers to have the LAC become the de jure border; India refuses each time. Have you not noticed the recent skirmishes follow the hug fest?  You think this is coincidence?

The border skirmishes were started by Indian troops crossing the LAC. The fact India wants to change the LAC unilaterally, means India is reneging on its agreement, yet again. If India were to accept the LAC as the de jure border, the conflict would cease in 2 weeks. But the US will never allow this.

Your indoctrination leads you to believe China wants to invade India. This is lunacy. There is no possible reason China would want to control 1 billion, impoverished, illiterate, poop-in-the-streets Indians. China wants simply to have the de facto border become the de jure border, and then get on with building trade. But you and 380mm other murcans want otherwise.

 

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

13 hours ago, Hotone said:

I have worked a little with the Taiwanese and have been impressed by their technical prowess.  It is no coincidence that they are a high tech powerhouse, especially in semiconductors - so much so that 2 of their companies account for more than 60% of the global foundry output. 

About 7 years back, I met a Chinese person who was rather pessimistic about the future of China. She told me that during the turmoil of the last century, all the smart and capable people fled China to go overseas, to Taiwan, SE Asia and elsewhere, leaving the poor, uneducated and dumb people behind and so it was hard for China to progress.

Of course from an emotional and ideological point of view, China wants to reunify Taiwan with the mainland. However, the territory itself isn't all that valuable.  The most valuable asset of interest to the CCP is the people of Taiwan.  A war that kills off a lot of the people or cause them to emigrate will be counterproductive to China's aims. 

I think that the current aggressive actions are just posturing.  The Chinese are very patient and can look at this issue in terms of decades if not hundreds of years.  They would not be in a hurry to invade Taiwan unless it repudiates the one-China concept.  This is just my opinion.

You and your one-off experiences...uh, okay.

There are smart people in Taiwan.  There are smart people on the Mainland,  There are smart people all over Asia, and the world.  Not special.  Nice, and smart, but not special.

One person's view that the smart people all fled?  This one had no real world view.  China is full of their relatives, and don't forget many people go home to help the Motherland after some years abroad.

The territory is the ONLY thing of value.  The CCP would prefer to have them join up and make any transition smoother, or they could wipe them out and get on with the fortifications.  Taiwan is a natural defensive position for any military invasion towards the mainland.  It is also a great forward position to coordinate forces and to launch pre-empitve strikes further out.

The Chinese are patient, but timing is everything in any conflict.....

Just my opinion.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Dan Warnick

[Marcin2 + 726]

10 hours ago, frankfurter said:

No. Your comments and those of Maddoux show incredible ignorance and arrogance.

But why are you angry about this ignorance ? This is site populated mostly by Americans so is pro-American and anti-Chinese by definition. Very few balanced commenters like @Hotone.

On the other hand (I suppose you are Chinese), I think you should like this ignorance. The fact that there is no comprehensive Chinese strategy in US government and US media present China in a very simplified way as authoritarian barbarians clearly plays into Chinese hands. It makes hegemony conflict from Chinese perspective a lot easier to win in the long time.

[Marcin2 + 726]

10 hours ago, frankfurter said:

Well, at least now you are being honest with yourself and others. Like others here, your ignorance, indoctrination, and hysteria are overwhelming your thinking. China's intentions are very simple: never again to be invaded by colonial powers; to be sovereign; to enable its citizens to have a wealth and standard of living comparable to that of the imperial west; to be an equal partner in world trade without the threats from the US. But murcans cannot allow those evil communists to have a decent standard of living, can you?  You cannot allow China or any other country to trade with others freely, can you? You must force all countries to use your toxic USD to buy oil, no other currency can be used, correct?  You must force all other countries not to use Chinese tech, such as 5G, so you can ensure US dominance in communications, and so ensure the US can spy completely upon all citizens of the world.  You must ensure your president can assassinate anybody in the world at whim without any evidence and certainly without a trial. And much more than this. Basically, there is no way murcans are gonna allow them evil commies to have what you have: even if this means incurring a global nuclear war over some island of no value to the US.

Most of it are simple privileges that come with hegemony. In 20 years when China will be stronger than US, I think you would have no problem with toxic CNY ruling the world. I think Americans do not have simply problem with China gaining the rich country status, BUT... this also means , by simple arithmetic that China will rule the world , and no exceptional society can cope with this with ease.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Marcin2
typo

[Boat + 1,325]

If China promoted a society and military attitude like Finland they would become more powerful at a quicker pace. It’s all about attitude. If China/Russia/Iran/N Korea etc quickly modeled its treatment of humans like Switzerland and Sweden there would be no need the US to control the world against rouge countries. Then the new war could be engaged. How to guide the worlds largest corporations/religions to a cleaner and more sustainable future for all. 
Think of the trillions in damage, waste and pollution associated with the idea of power.

Unfortunatly 1940 politics still lives. Worry about me and screw the rest. 
 

[surrept33 + 612]

10 hours ago, frankfurter said:

uh, which region?  uh, have you ever been to India? can you speak from direct experience and knowledge?

You seem entirely unaware other countries hold India in contempt. The US had Modi on a terrorist list. Or, have you forgotten this key fact?

Despite this, India is a prime concern to the US, to use India as southern flank against China. gotta pity the ignorant Indians tho, as they seem incapable of learning from their mistakes; firstly, they served a foreign master for 200 years; secondly, now again they serve a foreign master; and both foreign masters were/are in decline. Following the Trump/Modi hug fest (a disgusting spectacle), Modi feels emboldened to challenge China again for the border. murcans are entirely ignorant that border was agreed by both China and India, following India's defeat of sending her forces into China, which for +50 years has been labelled the LAC. Over 50 years, China has made many offers to have the LAC become the de jure border; India refuses each time. Have you not noticed the recent skirmishes follow the hug fest?  You think this is coincidence?

The border skirmishes were started by Indian troops crossing the LAC. The fact India wants to change the LAC unilaterally, means India is reneging on its agreement, yet again. If India were to accept the LAC as the de jure border, the conflict would cease in 2 weeks. But the US will never allow this.

Your indoctrination leads you to believe China wants to invade India. This is lunacy. There is no possible reason China would want to control 1 billion, impoverished, illiterate, poop-in-the-streets Indians. China wants simply to have the de facto border become the de jure border, and then get on with building trade. But you and 380mm other murcans want otherwise.

 

 

India has changed a lot in the last 15 years. I'd say in some ways they are ahead of the Chinese (particularly in transitioning to a service based economy), in some cases decades behind (particularly transitioning to a industrial-era based economy). Ironically, one of the biggest advantages in India is English. Hindi is only spoken by 40% of the people. Southern India has completely different language groups than northern India (Indo-European). English admixtures become very common (especially in Romanization of text), which is very useful on the internets.  

The Chinese Indian border is a more complicated situation than you claim. China is building a bunch of militarized roads in the disputed areas: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_border_dispute

The United States (or even commercial satellites, there has been a combinatorial explosion of them) regularly ("see") that with satellites. Some of this building is of course, in violation of previous treaties: 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War

Also keep in mind that the "belt and road" initiative has more or less financed much Chinese infrastructure all over Asia (I think mostly for oil/gas): https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sri-lanka-china-port-idUSKBN1JS22H

This is no Marshall Plan or a IMF/World Bank loan (which usually comes with stipulations about better governance). The loan terms are outrageous and China what it was doing. But I think countries are much wiser now. Xi has lost the trust of a lot foreign leaders by his government's actions. 

The economies of India and China are already interlinked because of the effect of himalayas glaciers in rain patterns both in China, India, and the entire southeast asia. Another fragile ecosystem. Maybe instead of using bully pulpits these countries should learn how to be friendly neighbors? Historically, even in the darkest of times, backchannel deals have always figured out how to get stuff done: for example, imagine if this hadn't happened: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_Waters_Treaty

The Cuban Missile Crisis would be the more well known analogy of course, which all occured around the same time. 

As Kennedy said: "For, in the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet. We all breathe the same air. We all cherish our children’s future. And we are all mortal.":

http://www.humanity.org/voices/commencements/john.f.kennedy-american-university-speech-1963

Edited February 6, 2021 by surrept33

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

12 minutes ago, surrept33 said:

India has changed a lot in the last 15 years. I'd say in some ways they are ahead of the Chinese (particularly in transitioning to a service based economy), in some cases decades behind (particularly transitioning to a industrial-era based economy). Ironically, one of the biggest advantages in India is English. Hindi is only spoken by 40% of the people. Southern India has completely different language groups than northern India (Indo-European). English admixtures become very common (especially in Romanization of text), which is very useful on the internets.  

The Chinese Indian border is a more complicated situation than you claim. China is building a bunch of militarized roads in the disputed areas: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_border_dispute

The United States (or even commercial satellites, there has been a combinatorial explosion of them) regularly ("see") that with satellites. Some of this building is of course, in violation of previous treaties: 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War

The economies of India and China are already interlinked because of the effect of himalayas glaciers in rain patterns both in China, India, and the entire southeast asia. Another fragile ecosystem. Maybe instead of using bully pulpits these countries should learn how to be friendly neighbors? Historically, even in the darkest of times, backchannel deals have always figured out how to get stuff done: for example, imagine if this hadn't happened: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_Waters_Treaty

The Cuban Missile Crisis would be the more well known analogy of course, which all occured around the same time. 

As Kennedy said: "For, in the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet. We all breathe the same air. We all cherish our children’s future. And we are all mortal.":

http://www.humanity.org/voices/commencements/john.f.kennedy-american-university-speech-1963

Who are you and what have you done with surrept33?