Biden suspends oil and gas drilling on Federal Lands for 60 days for review.

[Rob Kramer + 696]

2 hours ago, Roch said:

You don't have to to take the ICE Majority away over next 4 - 8 years.  Only 5% of electric vehicles on the road will pressure oil prices enough to make a difference. 

The Oil Producing States are preparing to ramp up production.  OPEC is on its last leg.  The only reason there is any OPEC quota compliance is because they think as soon as the pandemic subsides it will be "happy days again".  It will be happy days due to as you said pent up demand.  But it will be short lived. Maybe a year to 18 months.  

The 5% of on road vehicles will be easily accomplished before 2025.  It will be legislated .  Too early for the mandates to be legislated now for general public.  First, delivery vehicles (Amazon, UPS, Post Office, Etc) , taxis/Uber,  buses , city/state/federal vehicles, etc. Then By 2025, or sooner   By 2025 there will be (1) several hundred models of EVs to choose from(1) There will be all price ranges with many EVs priced in the low to medium range.  

Most won't have a choice to not buy an EV.

Few more years of good oil markets at most.

Too much oil. Demand plateauing.

OPEC will cease to exist.

They are scared of Stranded Oil assets. Already preparing for "sell it while you can" market.

Totally disagree (besides more EV mandates) the 5% of new sales is close. But drop in the bucket. If oil is cheap South America Africa Asia India will use more. Moving consumption not replacing it. To every action theres an equal reaction. Cancel a pipeline and they ship by rail or boat. Only one loosing is US consumer and as I said that will flow through to your businesses because ppl HATE being at home (not me but mass population) so they'll spend on driving vs consumerism of items. 60$ oil in a few months (2) and 70+ end of year . (I talk brent price) probably a spike then 70$ for a few years after that impossible to know.but thats 5years of predictions.  And with all the GOV power they can close down cities at the drop of a hat so impossible to predict that. So assume covid goes for good to play this out. 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

2 hours ago, Roch said:

You don't have to to take the ICE Majority away over next 4 - 8 years.  Only 5% of electric vehicles on the road will pressure oil prices enough to make a difference. 

So you think during covid 5% of all driving isn't being effected? OR does OPEC+ work just fine? .... mabey its easier to call their never ending production bluff when they need to cut oil 24/7. And why would they disintegrate once they can pump all they want? It's harder to agree to pump less than pump more. Just my opinion 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

Mr. Biden is very rapidly getting the United States into an energy bind. He still has time to back up and let things be, but that door is closing rapidly. 

With the new administration's rhetoric on Saudi Arabia taking on a sour tone, the KSA will be a target for Iran, probably via Yemen, but possibly through a direct hit to the Strait of Hormuz. They're crazy bastards in Iran so it might even be a baby nuke. 

Presto! Just like that we wouldn't have enough heavy crude to mix in with our light sweet shale basin oil. We'd be in a war but with no real way to provide the aviation fuel to fight it. 

We need ready, reliable access to Canadian heavy oil . . . for many reasons. First is the strategic location next door. Second is to heal trade relations. Third is to cut Saudi Arabia loose. Venezuela heavy, nah. Mexican heavy, yes--again for the same simple reasons. 

Mr. Biden has bought into the California Plan: solar and wind energy stored in a lithium-ion battery concourse capable of emitting it over the grid as needed, providing electricity to electric vehicles that during crisis levels can send energy back into the power plant, cutting all ties to fossil fuels. I have yammered on for months about the dangers of such a transition without fossil fuel backup--in the case of California, the many natural gas fired utility plants that can provide backup now and will be valuable for NG to hydrogen in a couple of years. 

Mr. Biden seems to have sold his soul to the company store, which in this case is the magical wonder-world of the Green New Deal. He refutes that, calling it the "Biden Plan" instead, but it's the same deranged logic. No one really took this seriously--especially in the shale basins--because it was reasoned that he could never get it through a Republican-controlled Senate. Well, so much for that stopgap! With his abrupt cancellation of the Keystone Pipeline and moratorium on lease-letting on federal lands (even though it looks like a compromise), he has let the whole world know that he wants the United States out of the fossil fuels business as quickly as possible, at the same time sticking an eye in the prince's eye, and flipping off Canada too. How smart can you get!

Be careful what you wish for, Mr. Biden. Right now the mainstream press is so gushy about your hair-brained ideas that you may get the impression you can do no wrong. But take it from me, you're about to get us in one hell of a jam: 1) raging inflation, 2) very high oil prices, 3) energy-insecurity, 4) a Middle East hellhole. It would be quite a setback for your devoted left to wake up one day and realize that 75% of the country yearned for Mr. Trump and the "good ole days." 😊

[El Nikko + 2,145]

1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

Ever heard of ANWR? Billions of dollars of non investment for Alaska now. Murkowski won't be elected dog catcher now, unless they install Dominion statewide

Well for once in my life I'm going to be a little selfish because we don't drill up there, if there's going to be any silver lining then this so far seems to help TX drillers a little. Not celebrating it I think these people are insane and demonic, they just shutdown the Keystone Pipeline and destroyed a load of jobs but luckily we don't drill anything up in Dakota either anymore....we used to, I must have been responsible for the wellbore placement of well over a hundred wells in the Bakken and they were great and challenging wells to drill.

I hope people who are in unions look a little deeper into them though, because this is quite sad.

 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

43 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

Well for once in my life I'm going to be a little selfish because we don't drill up there, if there's going to be any silver lining then this so far seems to help TX drillers a little. Not celebrating it I think these people are insane and demonic, they just shutdown the Keystone Pipeline and destroyed a load of jobs but luckily we don't drill anything up in Dakota either anymore....we used to, I must have been responsible for the wellbore placement of well over a hundred wells in the Bakken and they were great and challenging wells to drill.

I hope people who are in unions look a little deeper into them though, because this is quite sad.

 

Let it not go unkown Mr Warren Buffet oil train is no longer endangered, the world is being reset back to the end of Obama's admin. Now Buffet 

will be well capitalized to fund his new green energy endeavor..That guy gets the rewards no matter what happen's..and no repercussions what so ever.

Edited January 23, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[El Nikko + 2,145]

3 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Let it not go unkown Mr Warren Buffet oil train is no longer endangered, the world is being reset back to the end of Obama's admin. Now Buffet 

will be well capitalized to fund his new green energy endeavor..That guy gets the rewards no matter what happen's..and no repercussions what so ever.

Are you talking about the trains that moved the oil from the Bakken? There was an accident a few years back involving a company called Baytex.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

11 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

Are you talking about the trains that moved the oil from the Bakken? There was an accident a few years back involving a company called Baytex.

Yes i am, Buffet purchased the Burlington RR back under the Obama admin, the guy was allowed to break every rule in the book. Those rail beds were not built to sustain the weight of loaded oil trains. Yet he was allowed to run on them without a rebuild

Edited January 23, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[El Nikko + 2,145]

Just now, Eyes Wide Open said:

Yes i am, Buffet purchased the Burlington RR back under the Obama admin, the guy was allowed to break every rule in the book. Those rail beds were not built to sustain the weight of loaded oil trains. Yet he was allowed

Interesting, Baytex was the company I was referring to....I think they've gone down the toilet as well...all the best guys moved on years ago.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

20 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

Interesting, Baytex was the company I was referring to....I think they've gone down the toilet as well...all the best guys moved on years ago.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-burlingtonnorthern-berkshire/buffett-buying-burlington-rail-in-his-biggest-deal-idUSTRE5A22A720091103

April 5, 2008 12:01 am ET

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB120735854234491599

Edited January 23, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[JoMack + 549]

On 1/22/2021 at 9:17 AM, Boat said:

Where does the 60 day ban say anything about no drilling. It does say no new permits and no new leasing. Why do you use Trump speak when Trump is gone. 
What about those thousands of drilled but not fracked wells. I didn’t see him killing wells that are flaring. Has Biden gone soft already? Those with bad lungs wanna know. You know COVID attacks the lungs eh?

Without a permit no drilling on federal lands. That's Oil and Gas Operator Speak.   New Mexico is going to be toast since oil and gas royalties and taxes pay for the entire education system.  So skyrocketing property taxes, along with state taxes, so that's just one state.  No pipelines curtails production also, so back into the hands of OPEC, non-OPEC.  So, we'll probably lose about 3 million bbls without additional drilling so here come the tankers from SA, Iran, Russia?  So, next time Iran hits the SA oil infrastructure, we'll be paying a lot more than just some dollars in the gas tank.  

If wells are drilled are are capable of producing they will be fracked.  If drilled and fracked, then shut in, the well will be completed at the appropriate time.  At this point, if the Operators are drilling now, they'll frack and complete since the DOI nominee, as Dan Warnick pointed out, will stop fracking and any related permits to complete.

Haaland will probably be appointed by the Senate since she's Native American.  You know, diversity is tantamount in the Biden Admin,  and if you protest you are a racist.  

[Roch + 537]

19 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

Totally disagree (besides more EV mandates) the 5% of new sales is close. But drop in the bucket. If oil is cheap South America Africa Asia India will use more. Moving consumption not replacing it. To every action theres an equal reaction. Cancel a pipeline and they ship by rail or boat. Only one loosing is US consumer and as I said that will flow through to your businesses because ppl HATE being at home (not me but mass population) so they'll spend on driving vs consumerism of items. 60$ oil in a few months (2) and 70+ end of year . (I talk brent price) probably a spike then 70$ for a few years after that impossible to know.but thats 5years of predictions.  And with all the GOV power they can close down cities at the drop of a hat so impossible to predict that. So assume covid goes for good to play this out. 

Yea how's the shipping Canadian dilbit crud by train working out  ?  It's not.  Doesn't work.

You will see the development of new EV models , better batteries , lower costs over the next three years that will make your head spin.  By 2025 the EV market will be booming.  It doesn't matter if you don't want it.  The U.S. , EU  and Asian Governments will give buyers tax credits and make a gallon of gasoline prohibitively expensive.  

Tesla still planning to announce Sub $30,000 EV this year.  Today EVs still a luxury item in U.S. (not China)

EV pickup trucks and SUVs are on the way.  Tesla and Rivian this year.  The manufacturing processes are getting better and better.  

 

So 5% of 1.4 billion = 70 million cars by the end of 2025 .  

You think 5 million sold/year by 2025.  They could do 5 million this year.  Sales are doubling every year now.   Wait till it hits the inflection point. 

Rivian SUV: 0 mph to 60 mph in three seconds.  https://rivian.com/  

Rivian pickup off road : 

 

 

Edited January 24, 2021 by Roch

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,245]

2 hours ago, Roch said:

2 hours ago, Roch said:

Rivian SUV: 0 mph to 60 mph in three seconds.  https://rivian.com/  

Rivian pickup off road

 

Friend of mine working at the "old Mitsubishi" plant in Bloomington, Illinois and told me the new Rivian plant is now 2/3rds bigger than old plant. Said Sept production will be in full swing. Said these new trucks are effing fast and fairly decent on total miles between charges. 

[Roch + 537]

7 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

So you think during covid 5% of all driving isn't being effected? OR does OPEC+ work just fine? .... mabey its easier to call their never ending production bluff when they need to cut oil 24/7. And why would they disintegrate once they can pump all they want? It's harder to agree to pump less than pump more. Just my opinion 

Read my previous posts.  OPEC hanging together by a thread.  THEY THINK HAPPY DAYS ARE BACK WHEN THE PANDEMIC ENDS IF THEY CAN JUST HANG IN THERE. 

They are correct.

There is pent up demand to TRAVEL, VACATION, GET OUT .

BUT it will be short lived.  A year to 18 months.

Oil was trading in the low $50s before anyone heard of covid.  

Every producer country is planning to substantially increase production.

Some even doubling production. 

The only hope for oil is "the Middle East is in Flux" .  In other words the shit hits the fan in the Middle East.

I hate having to repeat myself.

That's my opinion .

Talk to me in 5 years.  

Too much oil. 

 

Edited January 24, 2021 by Roch

[Roch + 537]

17 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Let it not go unkown Mr Warren Buffet oil train is no longer endangered, the world is being reset back to the end of Obama's admin. Now Buffet 

will be well capitalized to fund his new green energy endeavor..That guy gets the rewards no matter what happen's..and no repercussions what so ever.

Canadian Dilbit on trains doesn't work.  

When the ND Balkan shale production started to ramp up about 7 years ago several midstream companies had open seasons soliciting commitments so they could build takeaway pipelines.

Nobody was interested.  

At the time it cost about $8 - $9 bbl to transport oil to the Gulf Refineries via unit trains vs about $4 to $5 bbl in a pipeline.

Much of the oil was bought FOB at the wellhead.  These traders preferred the flexibility of selling to either East Coast,  West Coast, Gulf Coast or Midwest refineries.  The U.S. crude export business had not developed yet. 

The extra cost associated with train transport was not a concern when oil was going for $90 bbl or more. 

Now the ND producers want/need the pipelines. They want the Keystone XL  . Makes sense. 

They should build the XL.  Yesterday when the South Dakota Senator Rounds said ,

"if the U.S. doesn't allow the Keystone XL to be built the oil will either be sold to China or transported on trains that are more dangerous".

Neither is possible.  (1) Dilbit on trains doesn't work (2) Re China, they have no way to get the Dilbit to a port. Even if they did transporting Dilbit on a tanker also doesn't work. 

Can Canadian Oil Sands wait 4 years for the U.S.  XL leg ? 

Edited January 24, 2021 by Roch

[turbguy + 1,543]

Residing in Wyoming, most residents have no idea how greatly this state relies on extraction severance taxes for revenue. I suspect such states are finally going to rely on revenue from "internal sources"  (e.g., taxes), rather than revenue that actually comes from the pockets of fossil fuel users in other states.  Reducing costs can only be carried so far.  Here is a great recent proposal to solve the issue:

https://www.wyofile.com/a-modest-proposal-for-solving-wyomings-budget-woes/amp/

The text:

Wyoming is in trouble. Even after the governor’s $500 million budget cut, the state will still have a shortfall of almost a third of a billion dollars. Raising taxes is apparently not an option, so something else must be done. 

Education represents about 34% of the state budget. As one of our leaders pointed out, we don’t need to provide a K-12 education that prepares kids for college, they just need to be prepared to enter the workforce — which makes a Swiftian solution to Wyoming’s fiscal crisis clear. Call it a modest proposal: 

Eliminate public education in the state of Wyoming. 

Now, I know we have this document called the Constitution, which requires that Wyoming children get an “adequate and equitable” education, but these are manipulatable words that our leaders on the “recalibration” committee are already finding ways to get around. 

The end of public education would provide numerous benefits to Wyoming. First of all, we would eliminate the most egregiously socialistic program our state has ever known. For decades, our state has been rounding up children, packing them into brick buildings and forcing them to learn how to read, write and do ‘rithmatic. Some schools have even had the temerity to teach music and art. Of all our socialist programs — the police department, the fire department, the sanitation department, the highway department, the health department — education is by far the most offensive to Wyoming values.

A hundred years ago, children were not forced to go to school. Rather, they were allowed the opportunity to work in any industry of their choosing. Seven year olds could work 12-hour shifts in a cotton mill. Eight year olds could log 60-hour workweeks in the coal mines. Nine year olds could work in factories for 16 hours a day for less than a dollar a week. Those were the good old days — the days of true capitalism when government didn’t stand in the way of a child making a decent living and a rich man getting richer.

Communists in the federal government passed child labor laws in 1906, 1916, 1918 and 1933, but luckily they were all struck down by the Supreme Court. It wasn’t until President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed the Fair Labor Standards Act in 1938 that these proud, hard-working children were pushed out of their careers in sweatshops and tobacco fields. After the abolition of slavery, this was the greatest blow to free market capitalism in the history of America. 

Having been to Burma, Pakistan, Afghanistan and a dozen other countries where children still have the liberty to work, I can tell you they do an incredible job. On assignment for National Geographic in Cambodia, I met Aki Ra, a sapper. Aki Ra got the extraordinary opportunity to become a sapper at the age of 5. After the Khmer Rouge murdered his parents, he was put to work dismantling landmines and using the TNT to build IEDs. His tiny fingers could defuse landmines better than any fat-handed adult ever could. 

I’ve seen children in India under the age of 5 working for the highway department, sitting beside the road with tiny hammers, breaking rocks into smaller rocks to use as roadbed. I’ve seen grade-school-age girls working in garment factories in Bangladesh — sewing all day, every day, no weekends, no holidays. Now that’s a work ethic we in Wyoming would be proud of.

Eliminating K-12 education would also have the salubrious effect of making the University of Wyoming and our community colleges unnecessary — which again, would save our great state hundreds of millions of dollars a year.

Another societal advantage of eliminating education would be to use the few children not working in mines or on farms as soldiers. Reporting for the International Committee of the Red Cross in the Congo, I had the  opportunity to interview child soldiers and I can tell you they get the job done. Well-trained child soldiers are known for their courage, ruthlessness and equanimous violence. They know how to control a civilian population, especially an educated population that naively believes in rational discussion. The children of eastern Congo call an AK-47 “The Answer.” As one 11-year-old soldier in Goma told me, “with this,” he swung the barrel of his machine gun at my chest, “I can get anything I want — food, weed, girls, cigarettes.” 

Of course we would need a few people who were educated to run the state, but these could be drawn exclusively from the wealthy class. This is the way it used to be — wealthy kids went to private schools and poor kids went to work. That workforce provided the labor for the companies and factories owned by the wealthy.

In short, the sooner we recognize that education is a waste of time for Wyoming children and a waste of money for the good taxpayers of this state, the sooner we can make Wyoming great again.

 

Edited January 24, 2021 by turbguy

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

52 minutes ago, Roch said:

Canadian Dilbit on trains doesn't work.  

When the ND Balkan shale production started to ramp up about 7 years ago several midstream companies had open seasons soliciting commitments so they could build takeaway pipelines.

Nobody was interested.  

At the time it cost about $8 - $9 bbl to transport oil to the Gulf Refineries via unit trains vs about $4 to $5 bbl in a pipeline.

Much of the oil was bought FOB at the wellhead.  These traders preferred the flexibility of selling to either East Coast,  West Coast, Gulf Coast or Midwest refineries.  The U.S. crude export business had not developed yet. 

The extra cost associated with train transport was not a concern when oil was going for $90 bbl or more. 

Now the ND producers want/need the pipelines. They want the Keystone XL  . Makes sense. 

They should build the XL.  But when the South Dakota Senator  yesterday said ,

"if the U.S. doesn't allow the Keystone XL to be built the oil will either be sold to China or transported on trains that are more dangerous".

Neither is possible.  (1) Dilbit on trains doesn't work (2) Re China, they have no way to get the Dilbit to a port. Even if they did transporting Dilbit on a tanker also doesn't work. 

Can Canadian Oil Sands wait 4 years for the U.S.  XL leg ? 

Yes i understand that, the xl line would have moved Bakken oil to..below is a current link to the state of the current state. Watch closely in the next few months..

https://www.desmogblog.com/2020/04/04/oil-rail-volumes-decreasing-while-risks-remain

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-energy-lawsuit/9th-circuit-says-indian-tribe-may-stop-oil-train-traffic-on-reservation-idUSL1N2AY0QA

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

[Rob Kramer + 696]

5 hours ago, Roch said:

Yea how's the shipping Canadian dilbit crud by train working out  ?  It's not.  

You will see the development of new EV models , better batteries , lower costs over the next three years that will make your head spin.  By 2025 the EV market will be booming.  It doesn't matter if you don't want it.  The U.S. , EU  and Asian Governments will give buyers tax credits and make a gallon of gasoline prohibitively expensive.  

EV pickup trucks and SUVs are on the way.  Tesla and Rivian next year.  The manufacturing processes are getting better and better.  

So 5% of 1.4 billion = 70 million cars by the end of 2025 .  

You think 5 million sold/year by 2025.  They could do 5million this year.  Sales are doubling every year now.   Wait till it hits the inflection point. 

Canada can train 500k? B/D if need be for 20$/bbl. So expensive oil makes cheap Canadian worth it.

I never said they won't be selling EV I said it doesn't matter for oil prices. 

I agree models and range will increase. But prices won't decrease. Tesla canceled its cheapest model 3 the non tech package. 

70M vehicles using 7 liters a day is 3 million barrels/day lost.(USA lost 2.1 million barrels per day in one year of low prices).... add in the rest of the world and growing fleet of cars ... yes if car sales loose 5M cars to EV but sell 5M extra cars total ICE fleet is flat. Population heading toward 9B ... I think more than 1.4-5B vehicles (including business&fleets) are needed. 

And no need to repeat yourself i can agree to disagree.

There's not too much oil or prices would be falling. Inventories would be rising. Just give me a few years worth of speculative pricing with no unforseen crisis included. Then we have something to talk about when the time comes.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

53 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said:

I agree models and range will increase. But prices won't decrease. Tesla canceled its cheapest model 3 the non tech package. 

Tesla is selling all the high-end model 3s that it can make, so they have no incentive to make the cheaper ones yet. A lower-end model 3 costs very nearly the same to build as a more expensive one, so the margins are far higher on the high-end models. But Tesla is building factories so fast that they will eventually saturate the higher-end market. When that happens, they will start selling the base model 3 and will start building a cheaper (model 2?) car.

In the mean time, the Chinese and Indian markets will grow rapidly, but the low end of these markets will be served by much smaller, much cheaper EVs.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

2 hours ago, turbguy said:

Residing in Wyoming, most residents have no idea how greatly this state relies on extraction severance taxes for revenue. I suspect such states are finally going to rely on revenue from "internal sources"  (e.g., taxes), rather than revenue that actually comes from the pockets of fossil fuel users in other states.  Reducing costs can only be carried so far.  Here is a great recent proposal to solve the issue:

https://www.wyofile.com/a-modest-proposal-for-solving-wyomings-budget-woes/amp/

 

😀 The most well-known satirical essay ever written was written by Jonathan Swift and is usually called "A modest Proposal".  A Modest Proposal For preventing the Children of Poor People From being a Burthen to Their Parents or Country, and For making them Beneficial to the Publick.   Ever since then, many, many writers have signaled that their work is a satire by using the phrase "A modeat Proposal" as the start of the name of their essay. Note also the similarities between Swift's solution and this one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Modest_Proposal

[Rob Kramer + 696]

54 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Tesla is selling all the high-end model 3s that it can make, so they have no incentive to make the cheaper ones yet. A lower-end model 3 costs very nearly the same to build as a more expensive one, so the margins are far higher on the high-end models. But Tesla is building factories so fast that they will eventually saturate the higher-end market. When that happens, they will start selling the base model 3 and will start building a cheaper (model 2?) car.

In the mean time, the Chinese and Indian markets will grow rapidly, but the low end of these markets will be served by much smaller, much cheaper EVs.

If thats why makes sense. Still a story of low Production.  And mixed with Americans can't afford a 40$ tank of fuel but can afford a 40k$ car. (I'm not the one saying that they arnt wanting to direct money away from consumption and towards travel & auto ) 

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

1 minute ago, Rob Kramer said:

If thats why makes sense. Still a story of low Production.  And mixed with Americans can't afford a 40$ tank of fuel but can afford a 40k$ car. (I'm not the one saying that they arnt wanting to direct money away from consumption and towards travel & auto ) 

Yep, Despite their ridiculous market cap, Tesla cannot yet make a lot of vehicles. 500,000 in 2020, while Ford, Chevy, and dodge each mane more than 750,000 pickup trucks, and VW made something like 12 million vehicles. But Tesla has learned how to build new factories much faster than any of the other guys, and this will change the game. They can build those vertically-integrated factories very quickly because EVs are very simple machines compared to ICE.

[Rob Kramer + 696]

13 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Yep, Despite their ridiculous market cap, Tesla cannot yet make a lot of vehicles. 500,000 in 2020, while Ford, Chevy, and dodge each mane more than 750,000 pickup trucks, and VW made something like 12 million vehicles. But Tesla has learned how to build new factories much faster than any of the other guys, and this will change the game. They can build those vertically-integrated factories very quickly because EVs are very simple machines compared to ICE.

There gonna need to lol. They need to sell like 20M cars a year to make a profit to justify the price and to do that hes gotta raise more money via shares split let them run up again the re fundraise . I prefer my mature oil company buying back 10% shares a year and adding cash to the bank and growing production ... not saying all companies are doing this but 1 is. Interesting to see how attached to ideas ppl get. I am now neutral. If energy is expensive I make money if its cheap competition dies and shows the strength of the companies I picked and presents an opportunity to buy more ... win win .

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

13 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said:

There gonna need to lol. They need to sell like 20M cars a year to make a profit to justify the price and to do that hes gotta raise more money via shares split let them run up again the re fundraise . I prefer my mature oil company buying back 10% shares a year and adding cash to the bank and growing production ... not saying all companies are doing this but 1 is. Interesting to see how attached to ideas ppl get. I am now neutral. If energy is expensive I make money if its cheap competition dies and shows the strength of the companies I picked and presents an opportunity to buy more ... win win .

Prices are set when a buyer and a seller agree on the price. I do not understand why anyone thinks Tesla or Amazon shares have the price they do, but clearly someone does. Same is true for bitcoin or the value of a US dollar or any other currency. Basically, the value of each of these things is a shared fantasy.

[Roch + 537]

From IEA study May 2018 based on 2017 data and mindset.  Very dated.  Need to double or triple theses numbers.  

Can't teach an old dog new tricks.  People believe what they want to believe.  Tesla just finished Chinese factory.  Building their German factory and second U.S.  factory in Austin Texas.  

Rivian shipping their EV SUVs and Pickups second half of this year.  Tesla cyber pickup coming g this year.  Ford EV 150 Pickup this year.  

The "OLD" mfg are scrambling.  They tried replacing the ICE engine with an electric motor and modified the drive train. That's not an EV.  Look at RIVIAN's quad electric motors architecture.  The amount of software code in their vehicles is amazing.  The "Old" auto mfg will take years to catch up.  But they will between 2023 to 2025 or go out of business.  Do or die. 

Fleet's are planning to go electric. Not just because it is green but it is now economically beneficial. 

ARTICLE FROM CNBC (MAY 2018)

Electric vehicles will grow from 3 million to 125 million by 2030, International Energy Agency forecasts.

Sales of EVs 2021 will be close to 5 million.  

The number of electric vehicles on the road around the world will hit 125 million by 2030, the International Energy Agency forecasts. That's there estimate 3 years ago.  DOUBLE THAT . 

The world’s fleet of electric vehicles grew 54 percent to about 3.1 million in 2017.

The IEA says government policy will continue to be the linchpin for electric vehicle adoption.

" .   .   .   .   Electric vehicle (EV) ownership will balloon to about 125 million by 2030, spurred by policies that encourage drivers, fleets and municipalities to purchase clean-running cars, the policy advisor to energy-consuming nations forecast on Wednesday."

" .   .   .   .  However, the IEA also sees a pathway to 220 million electric vehicles by 2030, provided the world takes a more aggressive approach to fighting climate change and cutting emissions than currently planned.

 

While battery costs are falling, the IEA acknowledges that government policy remains critical to making EVs attractive to drivers, spurring investment and helping carmakers achieve economies of scale.

“The uptake of electric vehicles is still largely driven by the policy environment,” the IEA said in the report. “The 10 leading countries in electric vehicle adoption all have a range of policies in place to promote the uptake of electric cars.”

NEED TO DOUBLE OR TRIPLE THESE NUMBERS FROM 2017/2018

 

Just my opinion

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by Roch