SUVs are conquering the world

[markslawson + 1,061]

I hate to break up the EV love party but here is a dose of reality from Forbes. SUVs are becoming the new go to car type. Forget EVs. They are distraction, and large numbers can't be accommodated easily on electricity grids struggling with renewables. I've included the first few paragraphs below but as also noted in the article SUVs are more convenient for getting people and stuff around.. like the old station wagon. My understanding is that as they are higher they are also more convenient for people, particularly elderly people, to get into and out of and being higher gives a greater illusion of safety, justified or not by the figures. Although they are supposed to be off-road vehicles the closest the vast bulk of them would come to off road conditions is a gravel car park.. This trend has been evident for many years, incidentally. 

SUVs are conquering the world. That's a problem for efforts to reign in emissions from the global transportation sector, which accounts for roughly 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

For the first time ever in the U.S. last year, sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) likely accounted for half or just over half of all vehicles sold, according to recent data from IHS Markit, a data and analytics firm. Others are rapidly catching up. Between 2010 and 2019, the share of SUVs in overall car sales in China jumped from 14% to 44%. In Europe the SUV share climbed from 10% to 36%. 

The SUV's popularity is effectively negating the annual fuel efficiency gains from better technology and tightening fuel economy standards. The average fuel efficiency increases of light-duty vehicles per year has slowed to only around 1.3% in recent years — down from the roughly 2% per year in the handful of years prior, and well below the roughly 3% needed merely to keep total global emissions from cars from rising.

 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

7 minutes ago, markslawson said:

The SUV's popularity is effectively negating the annual fuel efficiency gains from better technology and tightening fuel economy standards. The average fuel efficiency increases of light-duty vehicles per year has slowed to only around 1.3% in recent years — down from the roughly 2% per year in the handful of years prior, and well below the roughly 3% needed merely to keep total global emissions from cars from rising.

Another mathematically correct statement.  How does replacing old clunkers with new high efficiency cars not create less fumes? ... because the sales rates are increasing every 1 old car is being replaced  by 1.1 new cars (of larger size).

[NickW + 2,714]

17 hours ago, markslawson said:

I hate to break up the EV love party but here is a dose of reality from Forbes. SUVs are becoming the new go to car type. Forget EVs. They are distraction, and large numbers can't be accommodated easily on electricity grids struggling with renewables. I've included the first few paragraphs below but as also noted in the article SUVs are more convenient for getting people and stuff around.. like the old station wagon. My understanding is that as they are higher they are also more convenient for people, particularly elderly people, to get into and out of and being higher gives a greater illusion of safety, justified or not by the figures. Although they are supposed to be off-road vehicles the closest the vast bulk of them would come to off road conditions is a gravel car park.. This trend has been evident for many years, incidentally. 

SUVs are conquering the world. That's a problem for efforts to reign in emissions from the global transportation sector, which accounts for roughly 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

For the first time ever in the U.S. last year, sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) likely accounted for half or just over half of all vehicles sold, according to recent data from IHS Markit, a data and analytics firm. Others are rapidly catching up. Between 2010 and 2019, the share of SUVs in overall car sales in China jumped from 14% to 44%. In Europe the SUV share climbed from 10% to 36%. 

The SUV's popularity is effectively negating the annual fuel efficiency gains from better technology and tightening fuel economy standards. The average fuel efficiency increases of light-duty vehicles per year has slowed to only around 1.3% in recent years — down from the roughly 2% per year in the handful of years prior, and well below the roughly 3% needed merely to keep total global emissions from cars from rising.

 

SUV's and EV's are not mutually exclusive.

Also I get the impression most SUV's, particularly the volume small and medium size models  are just 2WD so the impact on fuel economy is not as great as if everyone was going for 4x4 or AWD. 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

46 minutes ago, NickW said:

SUV's and EV's are not mutually exclusive.

Also I get the impression most SUV's, particularly the volume small and medium size models  are just 2WD so the impact on fuel economy is not as great as if everyone was going for 4x4 or AWD. 

I had a 2014 tuscon 2L fwd (the awd is 2.4L) averaged 8.5L/100km. Most cars are only around 7L/100km. My Van and my brothers awd 2020 Santa fe 2.4L are like 10.5L/100km . I had a miata and I'd floor it around corners all the time and I'd get closer to 10.5L/100km. And most Ford f150 with the 5.4L are like 14-17L/100km. So I mean driving style alone determines alot. The newer cars if not turbo use less driven harder. Turbo cars suck the fuel when driven hard and alot of cars are turbo now (at Hyundai every car bit the accent can have a turbo model) crv is 1.5L turbo ... So these cars can easily all use 12L/100 if heavy footed.

[markslawson + 1,061]

6 hours ago, NickW said:

SUV's and EV's are not mutually exclusive.

Also I get the impression most SUV's, particularly the volume small and medium size models  are just 2WD so the impact on fuel economy is not as great as if everyone was going for 4x4 or AWD. 

No of course they're not.. my point in linking the article was to counter those who believe that EVs might be a significant alternative to the traditional petrol engine or even a replacement. Clearly that isn't happening and that EVs will, at best, be a niche market despite the best efforts of Elon Musk - unless governments are prepared to pay out big to encourage the purchase of EVs, as happens now in Norway.. the bit about fuel economy you cite is a reasonable point..  

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

On 1/25/2021 at 3:19 PM, markslawson said:

I hate to break up the EV love party but here is a dose of reality from Forbes. SUVs are becoming the new go to car type. Forget EVs. They are distraction, and large numbers can't be accommodated easily on electricity grids struggling with renewables. I've included the first few paragraphs below but as also noted in the article SUVs are more convenient for getting people and stuff around.. like the old station wagon. My understanding is that as they are higher they are also more convenient for people, particularly elderly people, to get into and out of and being higher gives a greater illusion of safety, justified or not by the figures. Although they are supposed to be off-road vehicles the closest the vast bulk of them would come to off road conditions is a gravel car park.. This trend has been evident for many years, incidentally.

 

I own a Tesla Model Y. Tesla sells two sedans (model S and model 3) and two SUVs (Model X and Model Y)  S and X are luxury, 3 and Y are high mid-range). The Model Y is the newest and it is currently outselling the rest of them put together. I bought it instead of a Model 3 because I'm an old guy and I wanted it to be higher and more convenient, and easy to load and unload grandkids and occasional big loads. I also like features it shares with most other EVs: AWD, extreme acceleration, and outstanding handling due to its low center of mass.

My house has only a 60 A service entrance. I charge on a 30 A circuit at 6 kW, and I can easily charge to full capacity during the off-peak electrical rate.

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

2 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

I own a Tesla Model Y. Tesla sells two sedans (model S and model 3) and two SUVs (Model X and Model Y)  S and X are luxury, 3 and Y are high mid-range). The Model Y is the newest and it is currently outselling the rest of them put together. I bought it instead of a Model 3 because I'm an old guy and I wanted it to be higher and more convenient, and easy to load and unload grandkids and occasional big loads. I also like features it shares with most other EVs: AWD, extreme acceleration, and outstanding handling due to its low center of mass.

My house has only a 60 A service entrance. I charge on a 30 A circuit at 6 kW, and I can easily charge to full capacity during the off-peak electrical rate.

Many very attractive battery SUV options are on the way.

https://www.caranddriver.com/ford/mustang-mach-e

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Deleted as repetitive (just saw the comment above)

Edited January 27, 2021 by Dan Warnick

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

On 1/26/2021 at 8:43 AM, NickW said:

SUV's and EV's are not mutually exclusive.

Also I get the impression most SUV's, particularly the volume small and medium size models  are just 2WD so the impact on fuel economy is not as great as if everyone was going for 4x4 or AWD. 

For EVs, AWD is generally more efficient, not less efficient. That's because an AWD EV has two or more motors, and the motors can sized differently, with different power/efficiency curves. These curves are much flatter than the curve for an ICE, but are not completely flat. This allows the software to send power to the motors optimally: use both motors for hard acceleration, use the smaller motor to maintain speed at lower speed, use the bigger motor to maintain speed at higher speeds. This surprised the heck out of me: I thought the extra weight for the second motor would lower overall efficiency, but I was (as usual) wrong. And of course you are not carrying around the weight of the ICE's AWD drivetrain.

Today's best-selling EV SUVs (specifically the Tesla X and Y) are grossly overpowered by comparison to ICE EVs. This in theory means that a more reasonably-powered EV SUV would be lighter, cost less, and be more efficient. In practice, who knows?

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,194]

1 hour ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Today's best-selling EV SUVs (specifically the Tesla X and Y) are grossly overpowered... This in theory means that a more reasonably-powered EV SUV would be lighter, cost less, and be more efficient. In practice, who knows?

Depends entirely how expensive centrifugal clutches are.  For low HP motors they are dirt cheap, higher power = more expensive and having another motor dragging and effectively becoming a generator is not good, though one should be able to "drive" one motor at 75% load and the other at 25% load so neither acts like a generator if one does not have a centrifugal clutch, but this also has efficiency losses so.... 

For EV you have 2 options for starting a car from zero speed, either a gear transmission with a single motor which means your overall efficiency sucks as all power is going through a gear train, but at least you can start on a hill... or you have to have multiple motors, but this also makes the differential/drivetrain on half the vehicle heavier and more expensive. 

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

2 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

or you have to have multiple motors, but this also makes the differential/drivetrain on half the vehicle heavier and more expensive. 

By multiple do you mean hub motors?

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,194]

21 minutes ago, Strangelovesurfing said:

By multiple do you mean hub motors?

No.  Hub motors efficiency takes a hit compared to non pancake motors which do not fit in the hubs of vehicles... OF course this is completely dependent upon the weight of said vehicle and you can find many electric race cars or  equivalent who all have wheel hub motors.  OF course the ENTIRE electric car in those instances weighs in at ~1000lbs or so.  Several times lighter than the average electric vehicle.

[markslawson + 1,061]

22 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

I own a Tesla Model Y. Tesla sells two sedans (model S and model 3) and two SUVs (Model X and Model Y)  S and X are luxury, 3 and Y are high mid-range). The Model Y is the newest and it is currently outselling the rest of them put together. I bought it instead of a Model 3 because I'm an old guy and I wanted it to be higher and more convenient, and easy to load and unload grandkids and occasional big loads. I also like features it shares with most other EVs: AWD, extreme acceleration, and outstanding handling due to its low center of mass.

Dan - that's all good and great you should have an electric SUV. The article notes that electric SUVs are somewhat more difficult to electrify than standard sedans but, of course, electric SUVs are being offered. But as you can also see even in the niche EV market the shift towards SUVs is marked. In the main market it would, of course, dwarf EV sales. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 1/25/2021 at 5:19 PM, markslawson said:

I hate to break up the EV love party but here is a dose of reality from Forbes. SUVs are becoming the new go to car type. Forget EVs. They are distraction, and large numbers can't be accommodated easily on electricity grids struggling with renewables. I've included the first few paragraphs below but as also noted in the article SUVs are more convenient for getting people and stuff around.. like the old station wagon. My understanding is that as they are higher they are also more convenient for people, particularly elderly people, to get into and out of and being higher gives a greater illusion of safety, justified or not by the figures. Although they are supposed to be off-road vehicles the closest the vast bulk of them would come to off road conditions is a gravel car park.. This trend has been evident for many years, incidentally. 

SUVs are conquering the world. That's a problem for efforts to reign in emissions from the global transportation sector, which accounts for roughly 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

For the first time ever in the U.S. last year, sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) likely accounted for half or just over half of all vehicles sold, according to recent data from IHS Markit, a data and analytics firm. Others are rapidly catching up. Between 2010 and 2019, the share of SUVs in overall car sales in China jumped from 14% to 44%. In Europe the SUV share climbed from 10% to 36%. 

The SUV's popularity is effectively negating the annual fuel efficiency gains from better technology and tightening fuel economy standards. The average fuel efficiency increases of light-duty vehicles per year has slowed to only around 1.3% in recent years — down from the roughly 2% per year in the handful of years prior, and well below the roughly 3% needed merely to keep total global emissions from cars from rising.

 

Very true and don't try to get between customers and their vehicle choices. You did not mention pickup trucks or vans which are a huge portion of the vehicles also and use even more fuel. Hundreds of thousands of these are being sold every year. I have a huge van, a minivan, and  a three cylinder 4 door sedan. The sedan is the most fun to drive around town but the minivan gets most of the heavier use. The big van is mainly used for extended trips where we can carry gear and people.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 1/26/2021 at 5:09 PM, markslawson said:

No of course they're not.. my point in linking the article was to counter those who believe that EVs might be a significant alternative to the traditional petrol engine or even a replacement. Clearly that isn't happening and that EVs will, at best, be a niche market despite the best efforts of Elon Musk - unless governments are prepared to pay out big to encourage the purchase of EVs, as happens now in Norway.. the bit about fuel economy you cite is a reasonable point..  

Biden, today just announced plans to spend billions to subsidize EVs. That was assumed but it is virtually policy now. It has to be passed into a budget though. Where will the money come from? Everyone who doesn't want an electric car and pays taxes.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

33 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Biden, today just announced plans to spend billions to subsidize EVs. That was assumed but it is virtually policy now. It has to be passed into a budget though. Where will the money come from? Everyone who doesn't want an electric car and pays taxes.

Biden is using a swarm mentality, for now it is merely advertising. As soon as the impeachment is dead things will turn. Wall st is getting extremely stressed. The large hedge fund mgrs are losing there grip, it seems antifa has refocused.... From the youngs point of view...this could be very bad.

https://techcrunch.com/2021/01/27/gamestop-memestocks-and-the-revenge-of-the-retail-trader/

Edited January 28, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 minute ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Biden is using a swarm mentality, for now it is merely advertising. As soon as the impeachment is dead things will turn. Wall st is getting extremely stressed. The large hedge fund mgrs are losing there grip, it seems antifa has refocused....

It is going to be interesting to see how the whole thing turns out. The crony capitalist in crowd will do well. The top socialist technocrat types will have a field day. The rest of the masses will not be happy unless they can land lots of "equity" money from the government. They will be leading the thugs at the bottom to help squeeze the middle IMHO. The brainwashing will continue in every way possible. The illegal aliens will be maximized before the next congressional election which may be the last chance to preserve the U.S. Constitution as it was written and should be followed. I think the alternative is some sort of actual large scale conflict. 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

1 minute ago, ronwagn said:

It is going to be interesting to see how the whole thing turns out. The crony capitalist in crowd will do well. The top socialist technocrat types will have a field day. The rest of the masses will not be happy unless they can land lots of "equity" money from the government. They will be leading the thugs at the bottom to help squeeze the middle IMHO. The brainwashing will continue in every way possible. The illegal aliens will be maximized before the next congressional election which may be the last chance to preserve the U.S. Constitution as it was written and should be followed. I think the alternative is some sort of actual large scale conflict. 

Could happen. When fuel spikes hard and this rental backup (non payers) all converges things could get quite nasty. I am actually pulling up stakes and its off to Florida Oregon is in terrible shape. Intel has floundered and Nike is making big cuts in there corporate HQ's. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

5 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Could happen. When fuel spikes hard and this rental backup (non payers) all converges things could get quite nasty. I am actually pulling up stakes and its off to Florida Oregon is in terrible shape. Intel has floundered and Nike is making big cuts in there corporate HQ's. 

Must be a lot of mixed feelings, and probably why you held out so long?  Oregon is an absolutely beautiful part of the U.S.  But the crazies seem to have well and truly taken over...

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

Biden, today just announced plans to spend billions to subsidize EVs. That was assumed but it is virtually policy now. It has to be passed into a budget though. Where will the money come from? Everyone who doesn't want an electric car and pays taxes.

The announcement I saw today was that the government will purchase EVs to replace government vehicles as they are retired from service. Are you thinking about some other announcement? EVs have a generally lower total cost of ownership than ICEs, so the government will spend less money than it otherwise would have.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

It is still easy to find red rural counties in most states of the union. Florida has a lot of appeal because it is red and has a good government still. Parts of Florida are quite affordable. I am probably staying in Illinois, which is only purple because of Chicagoland which is just a small area in the northeast corner of the state. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

The announcement I saw today was that the government will purchase EVs to replace government vehicles as they are retired from service. Are you thinking about some other announcement? EVs have a generally lower total cost of ownership than ICEs, so the government will spend less money than it otherwise would have.

No, I am talking about rebates for the general public. I may have misunderstood the speech though. Regardless, Biden is planning on spending inordinate trillions on green tech that is not ready for the demand that is needed. Thus they will waste trillions while avoiding using natural gas until they finally figure out they made a big mistake. Even then they may not slow down. Meanwhile China and India will burn coal while we are unable to compete.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

20 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Depends entirely how expensive centrifugal clutches are.  For low HP motors they are dirt cheap, higher power = more expensive and having another motor dragging and effectively becoming a generator is not good, though one should be able to "drive" one motor at 75% load and the other at 25% load so neither acts like a generator if one does not have a centrifugal clutch, but this also has efficiency losses so.... 

For EV you have 2 options for starting a car from zero speed, either a gear transmission with a single motor which means your overall efficiency sucks as all power is going through a gear train, but at least you can start on a hill... or you have to have multiple motors, but this also makes the differential/drivetrain on half the vehicle heavier and more expensive. 

As far as I know, there is no clutch on either motor on my Model Y. A perfect generator will impose zero mechanical load if there is no electrical load. When slowing down, the car adds more load (i.e., power going from the motor into the battery) to provide more braking. In theory, The maximum regenerative braking power for a motor is the same as the maximum accelerating power, However there is an irritating constraint: regenerative braking is also limited by the max rate at which the battery can accept power, and when the battery is not yet warmed up at all, regenerative braking is restricted. Thus, I get a little "regenerative braking restricted" message on a cold morning, and the car acts differently when I take my foot off the accelerator for the first 2 miles or so than it does on a warm day. Also, the BMW i3, and the model Y (and also other Teslas, I think) only have a single gear. These cars have so much torque starting from zero that their acceleration is superior to essentially all ICEs except some $200,000+ supercars.

In a much cheaper EV with a small motor, the tradeoff might be different, and a higher gear might be needed for highway speeds. Now that I think of it, a bigger motor may be cheaper than a 2-speed gearbox.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,194]

3 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

As far as I know, there is no clutch on either motor on my Model Y. A perfect generator will impose zero mechanical load if there is no electrical load.

..... Suggest picking up ANY motor and giving it a spin, literally and then tell me there is no zero load. 

EDIT: to make zero effective load on a multiple motor without a clutch they must be applying SOME power to the motor and turning that load condition into at minimum a null load

Edited January 28, 2021 by footeab@yahoo.com

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

3 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

..... Suggest picking up ANY motor and giving it a spin, literally and then tell me there is no zero load. 

EDIT: to make zero effective load on a multiple motor without a clutch they must be applying SOME power to the motor and turning that load condition into at minimum a null load

Agreed. That's why I specified a "perfect generator". No such thing in real life, but no such thing as a perfect clutch either. Yes, when driving instead of braking, they run at least enough power through each motor to keep that motor from being a drag. This is all part of the algorithm for optimizing the system efficiency for the current mechanical power demand.

With regenerative braking disabled, the car coasts when you take your foot off the accelerator, feeling very much like an ICE with an automatic transmission: not a lot of drag from those motors. With regen enabled, it feels like a manual transmission ICE.

Interestingly, on the Model 3 and Model Y, the rear motor is permag and the front motor is induction.