SUVs are conquering the world

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Maybe this video will be useful?

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

This article from INSIDEEVs in October addresses regenerative braking issues:

Tesla Quietly Removes Option To Adjust Regenerative Braking Strength

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

ICE vs Electric again and ICE is loosing out.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a35352321/gm-eliminate-gas-vehicles-2035/

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

On 1/28/2021 at 1:21 PM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

..... Suggest picking up ANY motor and giving it a spin, literally and then tell me there is no zero load. 

EDIT: to make zero effective load on a multiple motor without a clutch they must be applying SOME power to the motor and turning that load condition into at minimum a null load

The load you feel there is primarily the inertia, not friction or any magnetic resistance. Thus, if you do start it spinning, it keeps spinning, and you must work to slow it back down. Of course, since it's a real-world device, there is some friction and it will eventually slow down. If you want to slow it down faster, you can short the electrical wires and it will slow down much faster.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Personally, I drive a Dacia Duster, a SUV for the poor. If I had more money, I would buy Lada Niva because it has great driving conditions and I like to tinker, so I would not be discouraged by the constant problems with the car.

A few years ago, I read that the Ford F150 is the best-selling car in the United States, probably in 2015 after the collapse of oil prices.

Generally, I am a fan of SUVs and I would buy a better car but for now the Dacia Duster has to be enough.

However, I cannot imagine an electric SUV driving across all forest or mountain areas for a few days, if only because of the limited range of this type of vehicle and often very difficult terrain conditions. So I would stay with the ICE SUV.

As I said Dacia Duster below- cheap economic SUV made in collaboration with Renault-Nissan. You probably never heard about it in USA but its quite popular in middle-income countries in Europe.

Edited January 30, 2021 by Tomasz

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,552]

55 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

Personally, I drive a Dacia Duster, a SUV for the poor. If I had more money, I would buy Lada Niva because it has great driving conditions and I like to tinker, so I would not be discouraged by the constant problems with the car.

A few years ago, I read that the Ford F150 is the best-selling car in the United States, probably in 2015 after the collapse of oil prices.

Generally, I am a fan of SUVs and I would buy a better car but for now the Dacia Duster has to be enough.

However, I cannot imagine an electric SUV driving across all forest or mountain areas for a few days, if only because of the limited range of this type of vehicle and often very difficult terrain conditions. So I would stay with the diesel SUV.

Actually EV's produce far more usable tourqe @ low rpm which is a great benefit both off road and city driving.

EV's are just far to expensive to produce and the public at large really do not want them. 

Govt incentives need to be stopped, far to much wealth is going down a dark hole. 

There will come a time when that day happens, as of now we are far from it. The EU will be experiencing enormous blow back in the coming yrs, already they are experiencingas much. 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

1 hour ago, Tomasz said:

 

A few years ago, I read that the Ford F150 is the best-selling car in the United States, probably in 2015 after the collapse of oil prices.

The Ford F150 is a pickup truck. the top three best-selling vehicles in the US are the F-150, the Chevy pickup, and the Dodge RAM pickup, with more than 750,000 of each sole on 2019. The F-150 has been the top-selling vehicle in the US every year for at least 40 years. In 2020, thate were more F-150s sold in the US than all Teslas sold worldwide. Pickup trucks are not categorized as SUVs in the US.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

1 hour ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

EV's are just far to expensive to produce and the public at large really do not want them.

I don't know about "the public at large". Tesla sells all of the EVs it can produce, as fast as they can produce them. In fact, Tesla pretty much first sells a vehicle and then produces and delivers it. Tesla is (finally) making a healthy profit on each vehicle sold, separate from any funny-money transactions. Tesla is increasing production at the old Fremont plant and huge new Shanghi plant, and will begin production at the new plants in Germany and Texas this year. They claim they will produce and sell at least 750,000 vehicles in 2021, and some analysts think they will hit a million. More than half of these vehicles will be SUVs.

A note on nomenclature: the term "SUV" is ill-defined. In the US it more or less means any vehicle with high ground clearance and a hatchback that comes in an AWD version. This specifically includes unibodys. In the EU, "SUV" (apparently) means it has those characteristics and has body-on-frame construction. This difference makes it tricky to know what an author means with a statement like "SUVs are conquering the world". See:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sport_utility_vehicle

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,552]

2 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

I don't know about "the public at large". Tesla sells all of the EVs it can produce, as fast as they can produce them. In fact, Tesla pretty much first sells a vehicle and then produces and delivers it. Tesla is (finally) making a healthy profit on each vehicle sold, separate from any funny-money transactions. Tesla is increasing production at the old Fremont plant and huge new Shanghi plant, and will begin production at the new plants in Germany and Texas this year. They claim they will produce and sell at least 750,000 vehicles in 2021, and some analysts think they will hit a million. More than half of these vehicles will be SUVs.

A note on nomenclature: the term "SUV" is ill-defined. In the US it more or less means any vehicle with high ground clearance and a hatchback that comes in an AWD version. This specifically includes unibodys. In the EU, "SUV" (apparently) means it has those characteristics and has body-on-frame construction. This difference makes it tricky to know what an author means with a statement like "SUVs are conquering the world". See:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sport_utility_vehicle

Mr. Clemmensen Below are the numbers, one would guess it a perception type of thing.

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/usa-auto-industry-total-sales-figures/

15 million US autos sold

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/tesla-us-sales-figures/

300,000 US Tesla's sold.

OK 14750000 hey who's counting.

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2020-us-vehicle-sales-figures-by-brand/

Now how much longer are the big 3 going to let this go on????

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/teslas-sale-of-environmental-credits-help-drive-to-profitability.html

Edited January 30, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

The Ford F150 is a pickup truck. the top three best-selling vehicles in the US are the F-150, the Chevy pickup, and the Dodge RAM pickup, with more than 750,000 of each sole on 2019. The F-150 has been the top-selling vehicle in the US every year for at least 40 years. In 2020, thate were more F-150s sold in the US than all Teslas sold worldwide. Pickup trucks are not categorized as SUVs in the US.

True, but there is a reason they sell more than SUVs or any other class of passenger vehicle:

2021 Ford F-150 Revealed: A Smarter, Stronger Half-Ton Truck

You get ALL of the interior benefits and luxuries of any other vehicle + you get a utility bed + you get a machine that can tow major loads, for all your work equipment or for all your toys.

BTW, not discounting the new EV pickup trucks that are coming out.  They will be strong contenders, no doubt.  Somewhere in the mix will be the perfect pickup truck.

Edited January 30, 2021 by Dan Warnick

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

7 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Mr. Clemmensen Below are the numbers, one would guess it a perception type of thing.

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/usa-auto-industry-total-sales-figures/

15 million US autos sold

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/tesla-us-sales-figures/

300,000 US Tesla's sold.

OK 14750000 hey who's counting.

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2020-us-vehicle-sales-figures-by-brand/

Now how much longer are the big 3 going to let this go on????

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/teslas-sale-of-environmental-credits-help-drive-to-profitability.html

Yes, these are the numbers I have been working with all along, but I'm a bit more focused on the global market, not just the US market. The global market is about 92 million vehicles/yr.  Tesla sold 500,000 last year, so you can see that Tesla has higher US market penetration than global penetration.  Tesla (Elon) thinks they will maintain a 50% annual growth rate for the foreseeable future. That's more than doubling every two years (a 41% growth rate has a doubling time of two years). That's 5 doublings in ten years or 16 million vehicles/yr in 2030.

The "big 3" are not the biggest car makers. Toyota and VW are the biggest at about 10 million/yr each.

The traditional auto maker will "let this go on" until they completely re-invent themselves or they die. Only VW is really trying to re-invent. The rest of the industry is too firmly wedded to their century-old successful business model. Even VW is getting pushback from their dealers.

[Hiten Shah + 22]

Now Tesla looks to double every year. This 2021 year 1 million and next year 2 million is easily possible. 

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

12 hours ago, Hiten Shah said:

Now Tesla looks to double every year. This 2021 year 1 million and next year 2 million is easily possible. 

Be careful with this. Doubling every two years results in 16 million vehicles/yr in 2030. Doubling every year gets you 512 million vehicles/yr in 2030. But the entire world marker is only 92 million/yr, and the number of vehicles on the road is 1.4 billion. It's possible that Tesla will double in 2021, but the rate must drop eventually. At one point Elon mentioned 20 million/yr by 2030. Starting from .5 million/yr in 2020, that would require a factor of 40, which is a CAGR of about 41.46%.

[Hiten Shah + 22]

21 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Be careful with this. Doubling every two years results in 16 million vehicles/yr in 2030. Doubling every year gets you 512 million vehicles/yr in 2030. But the entire world marker is only 92 million/yr, and the number of vehicles on the road is 1.4 billion. It's possible that Tesla will double in 2021, but the rate must drop eventually. At one point Elon mentioned 20 million/yr by 2030. Starting from .5 million/yr in 2020, that would require a factor of 40, which is a CAGR of about 41.46%.

If GigaBerlin and GigaTexas are online by mid year then US  .600 million china .300 million Europe  .100 million can be achieved for 2021 and for 2022 double that.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

22 minutes ago, Hiten Shah said:

If GigaBerlin and GigaTexas are online by mid year then US  .600 million china .300 million Europe  .100 million can be achieved for 2021 and for 2022 double that.

They may double in 2021. They might even double again in 2022. There is no way they can continue to double every year for ten years because there is no market for 512 million vehicles/yr in 2030. Let's be wildly optimistic and assume Elon was being conservative(?!) at 20 million/yr in 2030. Let's assume 30 million Teslas/yr in 2030. That's a factor of 60 increase from 2020, or a CAGR of about 51%.  Assume doubling for 2021 and 2022 instead, and you still need a factor of 15 from 2022 to 2030, or a CAGR of about 41% for those eight years. All of this is insane.

Let's call a Giga Berlin or a Giga Shanghi or a Giga Texas a "Giga". To reach the 20 million/yr (i.e., doubling every 2 years) Tesla would need to have an equivalent of 10 Gigas each producing 2 million/yr. This implies that they bring their 3 Gigas up to 2 million/yr each and bring an additional 7 Gigas online and all the way up to speed by the end of 2029. That would be one Giga per year starting in 2023 This looks impossible to me. Of course, almost everything about Tesla looks impossible to me.

In the mean time, Elon does not think the other automakers will go away. He expects that Tesla will have less than 50% of the EV market., especially at the low end in China and India.

[Hiten Shah + 22]

If toyota gm etc can do it, then why can’t tesla. It has less moving parts, less dependent on suppliers except for batteries. In fact Tesla produces and sells Cars that batch manufacturing of Ford last century. Everything is possible!!

[Hiten Shah + 22]

On 2/1/2021 at 12:50 AM, Dan Clemmensen said:

They may double in 2021. They might even double again in 2022. There is no way they can continue to double every year for ten years because there is no market for 512 million vehicles/yr in 2030. Let's be wildly optimistic and assume Elon was being conservative(?!) at 20 million/yr in 2030. Let's assume 30 million Teslas/yr in 2030. That's a factor of 60 increase from 2020, or a CAGR of about 51%.  Assume doubling for 2021 and 2022 instead, and you still need a factor of 15 from 2022 to 2030, or a CAGR of about 41% for those eight years. All of this is insane.

Let's call a Giga Berlin or a Giga Shanghi or a Giga Texas a "Giga". To reach the 20 million/yr (i.e., doubling every 2 years) Tesla would need to have an equivalent of 10 Gigas each producing 2 million/yr. This implies that they bring their 3 Gigas up to 2 million/yr each and bring an additional 7 Gigas online and all the way up to speed by the end of 2029. That would be one Giga per year starting in 2023 This looks impossible to me. Of course, almost everything about Tesla looks impossible to me.

In the mean time, Elon does not think the other automakers will go away. He expects that Tesla will have less than 50% of the EV market., especially at the low end in China and India.

Don’t take India for Granted! India population has more Rich people has even bigger market than US and EU combined. 

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

3 hours ago, Hiten Shah said:

Don’t take India for Granted! India population has more Rich people has even bigger market than US and EU combined. 

(NOTE: Numbers here are not real-world predictions. They are used to illustrate the ludicrous consequences of sustained 100%/yr growth.)

India and China (and to a lesser extent the rest of the rapidly-expanding economies) may buy a lot of new cars in the next ten years. The world's entire stock of vehicles on the road is currently 1.4 billion and the world's current production rate is 92 million vehicles per year. If Tesla were to double production every year for 10 years, they would make 512 million cars in 2030, for a cumulative 10-year production of 1 billion cars. These factories would be producng more than 5 times the current vehicle output of all the world's vehicle factories. This is patent nonsense. The highly-aggressive theoretical path I described (10 Gigafactories at 2 million vehicles/yr per factory) would achieve Elon's stated goal of 20 million/yr by 2030. To achieve 512 million/yr, you need 256 Giga factories, and if you stop your expansion at that point you will continue to produce 512 million each year. World population will probably stabilize at about 9 billion, and the life of a Tesla will almost certainly exceed 10 years, Thus, those factories could produce one Tesla for every two humans on the planet, forever.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

On 1/30/2021 at 2:47 PM, Dan Warnick said:

True, but there is a reason they sell more than SUVs or any other class of passenger vehicle:

2021 Ford F-150 Revealed: A Smarter, Stronger Half-Ton Truck

You get ALL of the interior benefits and luxuries of any other vehicle + you get a utility bed + you get a machine that can tow major loads, for all your work equipment or for all your toys.

BTW, not discounting the new EV pickup trucks that are coming out.  They will be strong contenders, no doubt.  Somewhere in the mix will be the perfect pickup truck.

$80k... what an utter waste of money.  And everyone who buys them will then 2 years later bitch about how they are broke and need a helping "hand"

[Hiten Shah + 22]

7 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

(NOTE: Numbers here are not real-world predictions. They are used to illustrate the ludicrous consequences of sustained 100%/yr growth.)

India and China (and to a lesser extent the rest of the rapidly-expanding economies) may buy a lot of new cars in the next ten years. The world's entire stock of vehicles on the road is currently 1.4 billion and the world's current production rate is 92 million vehicles per year. If Tesla were to double production every year for 10 years, they would make 512 million cars in 2030, for a cumulative 10-year production of 1 billion cars. These factories would be producng more than 5 times the current vehicle output of all the world's vehicle factories. This is patent nonsense. The highly-aggressive theoretical path I described (10 Gigafactories at 2 million vehicles/yr per factory) would achieve Elon's stated goal of 20 million/yr by 2030. To achieve 512 million/yr, you need 256 Giga factories, and if you stop your expansion at that point you will continue to produce 512 million each year. World population will probably stabilize at about 9 billion, and the life of a Tesla will almost certainly exceed 10 years, Thus, those factories could produce one Tesla for every two humans on the planet, forever.

As Demand Supply gap reduces, growth will subside. Estimating growth twice every year is highly exaggerating. i have just estimated for next couple of years. Regarding India All facebook google microsoft whatsapp instagram etc have highest Active users in India and has overtaken USA

[Sebastian Meana + 278]

i'm kinda tired of always people selling that EV cars will dominate and all of that and how the ICE is obsolete, and it doesn't really matter because cars are obsolete by itself, they are giant 1.5-2 tons pieces of machinery maded to carry a 100kg monkey using sticky rubber tyres over sticky asphalt, they will never be a efficient mode of transport doesn't mather if its powered with hydrogen, or gasoline, or diesel, or electricity, or hopes and dreams of a better world.

And buying a car is one of the quickest way of wasting money, buy a car, it losses at least half its value in the first two years

Anyone remembers quartz watches? they maded mechanical watches obsolete? yes, it does matter nowaydays? no, because watches are obsolete and are just tiny stuff that makes you look cool, even the most expensive tourbillon is less efficient and way less precise than a 20 year old quartz seiko ,but so what? people buys watches to look nice

equally when EVs become the standard automobile people is going to keep buying Combustion cars because they have certain charm in them, Having a twin Turbo 2000hp V8 or 1000hp Cummins and making 140 decibels of noise,has no purspose apart from being an asshole and flexing and jerk o** in front of everyone to assert your dominance over lesser beings. And that's something you can't do with an EV in the same scale as with a combustion car

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

^^^ Damn right!!  Can I get a Hell Yeah!  I'm pretty sure I'll own an EV before I die.  But over in the garage?  Yeah, that's where I keep the Beast.

(Disclaimer:  This is not my car, yet.  But the garage is ready for me to lasso one of these critters.  He-he.)

[Boat + 1,323]

Nice car, as a kid I loved the 1970 Nova. Back to the big argument. The SUV and other fan favorites will happen down the road. I will not suggest when. 😅 I do have faith in engineering and tech over a couple of decades. Batteries by then will probably handle much heavier loads. Charging stations will handle charging these bigger loads in much less time and they will be everywhere. Aerodynamics won’t matter as much. Solar with power walls will make it much cheaper even for electricity hogs. 
Our biggest problem will be death from the family car going from 0-150 in seconds. 
I predict an amusement park offering a rolling car launch at 150 mph where external bags will let you roll for miles.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Boat

[turbguy + 1,537]

THIS is an impressive SUV!  Yup, it's expensive!  1000 horsepower, 0 to 60 MPH in 3 seconds...

https://www.gmc.com/electric-truck/hummer-ev

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by turbguy

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,552]

2 minutes ago, turbguy said:

THIS is an impressive SUV!  Yup, it's expensive!

https://www.gmc.com/electric-truck/hummer-ev

 

I will never understood GM' abilities to create one boat anchor after another and still survive. 

After the Volt debacle one would think lessons were learned.