.

[NickW + 2,714]

39 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said:

Avoids the question.  I've seen the charts. Coal is above average and gas has doubled output. If it was all gas and coal no renewable this wouldn't have happened. There would be enough. And saying I don't comment on climate change but push EV and unreliable expensive green energy  speaks for itself. 

Are US gas CCGT required to be dual fuel? CCGT plant in the UK normally holds a couple of days worth of fuel distillate to use in the event the gas supply is cut off. They would use it sparingly to meet peaks but it does gove that back up for at least a couple of days. 

If so that might explain the gas plants still running flat out even if the gas supply had been cut. 

The other side of the green angle is that 99.9999% of the time that wind resource (and increasingly solar) frees up gas for LNG export - freedom fuel as DT or Ronald would tell you. 

[turbguy + 1,543]

Also note some of the import DC ties into ERCOT from the eastern grid are constrained (probably due to less power available to import and perhaps maintenance on rectifiers/inverters). 

Edited March 4, 2021 by turbguy

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

49 minutes ago, NickW said:

It has nothing to do with LNG. These are conventional gas plants freezing up, that probably due to the climate in Texas are not adequately protected from an extreme cold event like this. Gas in conventional plants in warm climates will be quite 'wet' compared to LNG gas.

As regards LNG, prior to liquification it is dehydrated of liquids to reduce the risk of icing in pipework, storage and the regassification stage. 

Nick once again my ignorance is overwhelming me,there is no known gas in any gas energy pipeline that will freeze..so i ask is there a petroleum distillate that will freeze in 20 below let say.

[NickW + 2,714]

9 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Nick once again my ignorance is overwhelming me,there is no known gas in any gas energy pipeline that will freeze..so i ask is there a petroleum distillate that will freeze in 20 below let say.

Water vapour in the gas

Butane freezes at -1 deg C

Also atmospheric ice on valves etc can stop them operating

Edited February 15, 2021 by NickW

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

9 minutes ago, NickW said:

Water vapour in the gas

Also ice on valves etc can stop them operating

My god water vapor in gas how can that occur???? and icing a pipe up? In my youthful years i worked a pipe insulator in North Dakota..LOL much has changed since the 70's

Butane freezing at 0 you say....odd 

Edited February 15, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[NickW + 2,714]

5 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

My god water vapor in gas how can that occur???? and icing a pipe up? In my youthful years i worked a pipe insulator in North Dakota..LOL much has changed since the 70's

Climates a bit different in North Dakota isn't it. 

I suspect though the issues are mostly external icing of external moving parts at the gas plant. 

Edited February 15, 2021 by NickW

[0R0 + 6,251]

3 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Texas is currently encounter an unprecedented cold snap with record-breaking demand for electricity, and the system failed to meet the demand for several reasons.

The last time the ERCOT system saw unprecedented demand leading to rolling blackouts was in 2010, which was before wind power was much of a percentage.  So yeah, unprecedented demand can force rolling blackouts.

As you may have noticed, TX has a great wind corridor for the same reason polar vortexes reach down to Northern TX. The issue at hand is a SUPPLY problem, as there insufficient ready standby NG backup power setup. Cold snaps both raise demand sharply and curtail solar and wind power on the supply side. Both are inflexible and can't adjust by price. The NG backup has to be subsidized year round in order for it to be there during these offline periods. Germany at least figured that out and kept coal firing capacity. Germany is just about the worst place for wind and solar you could think of. 

This episode shows us that renewables technology and its applications are still not ready and we don't have sufficient practical system management experience to deploy them immediately without NG backup.  

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

So if all power was coal nat gas and nuclear would this still be an issue?

Is it not global warming propaganda that increasingly poor weather events happen? Last was hot in a hot place now its cold in a hot place. Did greenhouse gass effect take a global vacation?

Edit : the Thames froze.  China coldest day in 54 years. Texas extreme cold. Spain coldest day on record. Europe gas storage over full and now below average. Common greenhouse effect we need you back!

We are at the start of a solar minimum cycle that is going to last at least another 20 years. it will be worse each year into the intermediate future. 

If global warming is real, we need as much of it as we can get for another 20-30 years. Subsidize CO2 emissions if that is required. 

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

1 hour ago, turbguy said:

You do know that happens at coal-fired plants as well, NO?

No. It. Doesn't. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

1 hour ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Nick once again my ignorance is overwhelming me,there is no known gas in any gas energy pipeline that will freeze..so i ask is there a petroleum distillate that will freeze in 20 below let say.

I'm sorry, and I don't know what @NickW specialized in, but you're right in that natural gas doesn't freeze in natural conditions. However, if there were any actual oil people still left on this site, at least a few of them should be familiar with clathrates or hydrates. If that's what's going on in the pipelines that's a real mess indeed. In fact warming by 10 decrees C won't even do any good if they've got a hydrate problem. This is why methane needs to be dewatered in the first place for commercial use. That article was woefully lacking in anything resembling engineering or science answers.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

13 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

I'm sorry, and I don't know what @NickW specialized in, but you're right in that natural gas doesn't freeze in natural conditions. However, if there were any actual oil people still left on this site, at least a few of them should be familiar with clathrates or hydrates. If that's what's going on in the pipelines that's a real mess indeed. In fact warming by 10 decrees C won't even do any good if they've got a hydrate problem. This is why methane needs to be dewatered in the first place for commercial use. That article was woefully lacking in anything resembling engineering or science answers.

You are so right: the methane clathrates are a class unto themselves. Common on the floor of the Gulf. If anything would mimic the seafloor conditions, it would be something like this polar vortex. 

I'm sure they add chemicals to prevent clathrate-formation within pipelines, but if they raised the pressure-head, that would potentially cause them to form. NickW would know more about this. 

One of the reasons they don't produce methane clathrates so much up in the frozen Bakken is because of the ~10-20% ethane in natural gas, along with some propane. These are larger and don't form the cage-like molecule with condensed water except at exceptionally high pressure and equally exceptionally low temperatures. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

3 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

I try not to comment on climate change on this forum. My post was entirely about the fact that grids do are not necessarily able to cope with unprecedented power demands. When demand goes entirely off the charts, then any supply disruption will require rolling blackouts, This occurs in red states and blue states, for extreme widespread heat or cold coupled with weather-induced supply losses.

All that means is that we need better systems that are redundant and allow for extreme problems. What would we all do in case of war, more prolonged surprised weather, anarchy, etc.  freeze to death? Do I need to buy a propane tank to back up my natural gas line? I installed a natural gas stove to avoid freezing during an electric blackout. We need to have reliable systems in all conditions and they should be redundant and localized. 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

1 minute ago, ronwagn said:

All that means is that we need better systems that are redundant and allow for extreme problems. What would we all do in case of war, more prolonged surprised weather, anarchy, etc.  freeze to death? Do I need to buy a propane tank to back up my natural gas line? I installed a natural gas stove to avoid freezing during an electric blackout. We need to have reliable systems in all conditions and they should be redundant and localized. 

You're fine with the natural gas line. Condensed water is removed from methane so the end-user receives a gas that won't freeze. 

But you're right: at the source, if they increase the pressure head and haven't removed all water, methane clathrates can form and plug the lines temporarily. If you want to be absolutely sure you're safe, propane is a larger molecule and refuses to engage in the amazing cage-like molecule-within-a-molecule known as a clathrate. 

Propane is your best foolproof system, in my opinion. So much more reliable than solar or wind. 

And you're right too, in that redundant systems are necessary for the safety of any grid. That's the giant fallacy inherent within the "California Plan." I have referred to it so much it probably sounds like I'm picking on them. I'm not, but their plan is a blueprint for disaster and humanitarian crisis. California has been so opposed to fossil fuels that they have decommissioned several nat. gas utility plants, which would have been great redundancy for the solar/wind energy fed into a lithium-ion battery storage. They have also curtailed oil and gas production to the extent that they're more reliant on Saudi oil. 

California might get by with this because of their weather. However, for the rest of the country, this polar vortex is a potent reminder of the need for good redundant systems in case the unthinkable happens.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

Listening to the commentary and the results of this speed bump of a storm caused me to roll back the tape a bit. Below is true Vortex i was there the pictures are not a exageration by any means. As young boys we actually dug people out of there homes just for the pure fun of it. I actually walked over a hedge that was 14' feet high, cars were buried in the streets under 5 feet of snow. 

Best of all no power outages none, just a good time for a few days..lol no school a note here the storm engulfed the US from the Dakota's to NY down as far as NB. It was a true votex.

1966...https://www.weather.gov/fgf/blizzardof66

 

Edited February 16, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[ronwagn + 6,290]

3 hours ago, NickW said:

Are US gas CCGT required to be dual fuel? CCGT plant in the UK normally holds a couple of days worth of fuel distillate to use in the event the gas supply is cut off. They would use it sparingly to meet peaks but it does gove that back up for at least a couple of days. 

If so that might explain the gas plants still running flat out even if the gas supply had been cut. 

The other side of the green angle is that 99.9999% of the time that wind resource (and increasingly solar) frees up gas for LNG export - freedom fuel as DT or Ronald would tell you. 

My preference is that we use it as our first choice and only export when storage is full. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

51 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Listening to the commentary and the results of this speed bump of a storm caused me to roll back the tape a bit. Below is true Vortex i was there the pictures are not a exageration by any means. As young boys we actually dug people out of there homes just for the pure fun of it. I actually walked over a hedge that was 14' feet high, cars were buried in the streets under 5 feet of snow. 

Best of all no power outages none, just a good time for a few days..lol no school a note here the storm engulfed the US from the Dakota's to NY down as far as NB. It was a true votex.

1966...https://www.weather.gov/fgf/blizzardof66

 

We had photos just like those in Illinois.  Not just one winter, either.  Great fun and great family times.  Of course that was back when kids went outside to play, every day!  You actually knew all the other kids out in the snow and on top ot the massive drifts.

We did have the occasional ice storm that knocked down power lines.  Then we put sheets up in the kitchen doorways and gathered there with the gas oven going to keep things toasty while Ed the power guy got the lines sorted out.  Remember board games?

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 hours ago, 0R0 said:

We are at the start of a solar minimum cycle that is going to last at least another 20 years. it will be worse each year into the intermediate future. 

If global warming is real, we need as much of it as we can get for another 20-30 years. Subsidize CO2 emissions if that is required. 

 

The CO2 theory is bollux, GIGO. 

[Roch + 537]

8 hours ago, Roch said:

So much for green energy as primary energy source.Many don't realize Texas has a comparatively large number of wind energy installations.  Perfect geography until the weather doesn't cooperate. 

Just heard in 2020 over 25% of Texas electricity was generated by wind power. 

 

Edited February 16, 2021 by Roch

[ronwagn + 6,290]

19 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

We had photos just like those in Illinois.  Not just one winter, either.  Great fun and great family times.  Of course that was back when kids went outside to play, every day!  You actually knew all the other kids out in the snow and on top ot the massive drifts.

We did have the occasional ice storm that knocked down power lines.  Then we put sheets up in the kitchen doorways and gathered there with the gas oven going to keep things toasty while Ed the power guy got the lines sorted out.  Remember board games?

It happens about every year in California, crossing the Sierras. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

30 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

The CO2 theory is bollux, GIGO. 

Can you say "Covid-19 data"?

[turbguy + 1,543]

3 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

No. It. Doesn't. 

When you can't refill the bunkers because the coal is frozen to the pile, and won't dump from the RR cars (since it is frozen solid inside), it certainly does happen.  Jackhammers make a dent, but not much of one.  It's neat to see a rotary dumper invert a full car, and NOTHING comes out...and when the full "Frozen Coal Cube" does, you have a little problem on your hands.

 

 

Edited February 16, 2021 by turbguy

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

44 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

We had photos just like those in Illinois.  Not just one winter, either.  Great fun and great family times.  Of course that was back when kids went outside to play, every day!  You actually knew all the other kids out in the snow and on top ot the massive drifts.

We did have the occasional ice storm that knocked down power lines.  Then we put sheets up in the kitchen doorways and gathered there with the gas oven going to keep things toasty while Ed the power guy got the lines sorted out.  Remember board games?

Board game absolutely, however it was in the plain state of SD, the correct usage would be bored games. Didn't take long for that to end...the collective back then was anything from the ice hockey rink to the baseball fields or perhaps the next door neighbors apple tree's in the dead of night...say 8. LOL larceny at its finest moment.

Well close i do remember quite well sneaking the mini bikes out the alley while the local cop was hiding to bust us driving across the city streets...what a game of cat and mouse. Total debauchery...rebels without a cause...

 

Edited February 16, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

11 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Can you say "Covid-19 data"?

Odd i have a vision of the 2020 elections. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

7 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Board game absolutely, however it was in the plain state of SD, the correct usage would be bored games. Didn't take long for that to end...the collective back then was anything from the ice hockey rink to the baseball fields or perhaps the next door neighbors apple tree's in the dead of night...say 8. LOL larceny at its finest moment.

Well close i do remember quite well sneaking the mini bikes out the alley while the local cop was hiding to bust us driving across the city streets...what a game of cat and mouse. Total debauchery...rebels without a cause...

 

Man, that's a cool video.  I never saw one of those souped up jobs when I was a kid.  Just the basic lawn-mower engine on a frame, usually with one sort of working brake, and that was usually the front brake.  Yeah, some wild stops in that config!

Thanks for posting that.  Great memories.  Hey, wanna play baseball in the lot?