.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

7 minutes ago, NickW said:

No one is starving but I understand you have major issues with food deserts (absence of fresh foods)  in some big cities. 

My wife went on a business trip to Cincinati.. The hotel she was staying in basically only served food glazed in fat and sugar. 

She asked for soup or a salad - no mam we don't have anything like that on the menu.

So she tried to get something locally in the shops (some fruit etc) - nothing

Even in the shittiest parts of London you have convenience stores with a good range of fruit and veg 

That feeds into my narrative that people need to be taught to take care of themselves. Brits probably have a worse diet than Americans but I could be wrong. We have an abundance of pricey fruits and vegetables but many are drawn to various chips and cookies etc. I find soups to be the best form of eating for nutrition. You can throw all sorts of things in a soup or stew and it will taste good, plus you can freeze it and eat it again at your convenience with little effort. Beans are the most nutritious for the dollar and very healthful. Chili with beans and lots of tomatoes and onions is my favorite. 

The biggest health problem that the average American has is obesity which leads to all sorts of health problems. That comes from the culture of eating three meals a day plus snacks, beer etc. Then we have holidays and parties based around food, which is another big problem. 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

5 hours ago, Boat said:

Those EV’s are only for the rich. Let me yank you back to reality and away from EV fear. 1/2 of potential customers make $30,000 or less per year in the US. In Germany, China, now India and the US the market is limited. It will take another breakthrough in battery tech to drop prices that will still probably be to high for the average consumer. 
One legit FF killing electric vehical is the Semi. Projections are about 50,000 per year going forward with no further information. So it will take a few years to make a big impact. No news of another factory.

You jump topics like a water bug. But that’s ok, I’m here to give you an alternative to Trumpisms. Let’s keep it real.

Boat there are times you are simply astounding. Yes I do jump when I see how badly the green revolution is be played out.

As one very wise and seasoned member here posted "why do we have to run this experience over and over"

It would seem a large population of humanity relishes poverty, the art form of being subservient.

So back to Texas it is, just another monumental excersie where the working poor will continue to pay the price for the reckless dreams of business investor's. And green energy is business make no mistake.

[NickW + 2,714]

26 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

That feeds into my narrative that people need to be taught to take care of themselves. Brits probably have a worse diet than Americans but I could be wrong. We have an abundance of pricey fruits and vegetables but many are drawn to various chips and cookies etc. I find soups to be the best form of eating for nutrition. You can throw all sorts of things in a soup or stew and it will taste good, plus you can freeze it and eat it again at your convenience with little effort. Beans are the most nutritious for the dollar and very healthful. Chili with beans and lots of tomatoes and onions is my favorite. 

The biggest health problem that the average American has is obesity which leads to all sorts of health problems. That comes from the culture of eating three meals a day plus snacks, beer etc. Then we have holidays and parties based around food, which is another big problem. 

depends where you look. Obesity bad in both countries but is worse in the USA. 

Food appears to be cheaper in the US

The range and quality of food from what I have told is generally better in the UK. I dont know first hand but several people who lived in both countries have said this. 

I suspect our poor populations have equally bad diets.

What we don't generally have in the UK are food deserts 

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

20 hours ago, NickW said:

The Earth won't cool down. The rate of global warming will be moderately slower for the next 2-3 years* during this 'cooler phase' before reaching peak again in 5-6 years. 

2010 was a particularly cold winter which coincides with the 11 year cycle solar cycle. 

* No doubt the heralds of the next ice age on here will be singing we all gonna freeze😀

No, the new climate models are showing a cooling phase of several decades. Not related to atmospheric CO2.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

7 hours ago, NickW said:

Im not but I will relay the explanation given to me by someone who until 5 years ago was managing a large part of a grid system comparable in size  to either California or Texas. More critically a system that actually works. He may have course have got it all wrong but then the UK hasn't had rolling power cuts since the early 70's (miners strike) 

This was the laymans explanation given to me.

• Due to a loss of supply / unexpected increase in demand the rotating mass of generating plant on the grid starts to slow .
• This is measured by a reduction in frequency from the normal 50 hertz in UK systems. I assume as you point out this is accompanied by a drop in voltage
• The generating mass attempt to recover this by speeding up (adjust the Governor &more fuel in) 
• However if the frequency continues to fall a trigger point occurs at about 49.7
• large interrruptible loads start to be disconnected from the grid for upto 30 minutes(large cold stores, large HVAC systems, water plants, some metal smelting operations). This is all automated and with contracted agreement by the affected parties. 
• Batteries are also playing an increasing role here in frequency drop / rise response

 

• If frequency continues to fall standing generators start to kick in (Usually stationary gen sets). Those are often at power stations and industrial sites. Mostly contracting in and all automated
• Contracted in short term operator reserve generators kick in. These are usually emergency generators set up on an automated response 
• Pumped Hydro (4GW in total)  kicks in within 2 minutes. Dinorwic goes from 0 to 1860MW in about 90 seconds
• There is about a GW of OCGT on standby which can fire up within a few minutes 
• There is about 2GW of Hydro of which there is normally some available capacity to utilise at short notice
• Beyond that its about getting partially loaded CCGT ramped up, bring cold plant into play and recover to 50 hz and shut down the fast response actions. 

The first 6 steps can occur within a few seconds. 

The next 5 within a couple of minutes.

My firm has 4 500KW gen sets as emergency generators at our data centre that are contracted in on this arrangement. We can also shut down the cooling for up to 30 minutes which takes 700KW of load off the grid. Its all contracted and automated to NG. 

 

Rolling System Frequency | BMRS (bmreports.com)

Reserve services | National Grid ESO

I said the frequency variability was negligible and a cursory examination of your sources underscores that observation. Going from 50hz to 49.7hz is what as a percentage? @Sebastian Meana is largely correct although he's handicapped by not being able to express his thoughts in his native tongue. Supercritical Water, a subject with which I am quite familiar having written several patents involving it begins at 373C and 22.03megapascals. SCW is not steam it is a 4th state of water which has very useful features (and some not so useful). SCW primer

When the generators of power cannot keep up with the demand (called load in EE speak) they need to shed load. However, and this is critical, in power demand must equal supply. Load gets shed for multiple reasons, including accidents but the generation side can't just keep spinning with no load on the other end. That's a good way to turn hundreds of tons of steel into scrap in a hurry. Therefore as load gets dropped for whatever reason it must be balanced with supply being dropped in parallel. "Electricity" can't just sit on the wires like water sits in the pipes waiting to be used. Power generation must be immediately consumed, as in about 80% of the speed of light. @Eyes Wide Open is wrong to talk about "electrons" going to the customer, since it's AC they basically oscillate back and forth. What does go to the customer is an electromagnetic wave. Kirchoff's Law describes how the voltage diminishes in a set pattern as it is "consumed" by resistance. From the generation perspective everything "out there" is resistance. 

Different kinds of generating equipment have different advantages and disadvantages. Coal fired combined cycle plants take hours to get up to speed and are very cranky when they're powered down. Gas fired turbines can dial up quickly on the order of 15 minutes to full capacity. Wind turbines run the gamut. In Texas as Sebastian pointed out, losing wind caused a cascade of "accidents", which crippled the system. 

The operators if wind produce power based on weather reports. If the forecast says sustained 10-20 mph winds for the next week, they commit to delivering power. However, in this event, the wind was there but so was the ice. So they quickly shut down, which immediately caused the other generators to strain to meet the same load that was there a minute ago. They can't just "make up" even 10% at the drop of a hat, and contrary to ERCOT missives, wind was 25% of the power generation when this house of cards fell down. 

In order it went like this. Wind dropped (while actual wind was still blowing) so load had to be shed immediately. Too much load was shed (it's an imperfect system) so generation was stopped, and unfortunately because this was unforeseen that generation was steam, which doesn't like being shut down. Meanwhile demand keeps climbing because it's cold and people are cranking up their thermostats. More insufficient supply, more shed load, lather rinse repeat. 

That's as simplistic as I can make it. I blog on a mobile device not my keyboard so it's a pain to write long posts and formatting is next to impossible (no tabs for instance).

[NickW + 2,714]

30 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

I said the frequency variability was negligible and a cursory examination of your sources underscores that observation. Going from 50hz to 49.7hz is what as a percentage? @Sebastian Meana is largely correct although he's handicapped by not being able to express his thoughts in his native tongue. Supercritical Water, a subject with which I am quite familiar having written several patents involving it begins at 373C and 22.03megapascals. SCW is not steam it is a 4th state of water which has very useful features (and some not so useful). SCW primer

When the generators of power cannot keep up with the demand (called load in EE speak) they need to shed load. However, and this is critical, in power demand must equal supply. Load gets shed for multiple reasons, including accidents but the generation side can't just keep spinning with no load on the other end. That's a good way to turn hundreds of tons of steel into scrap in a hurry. Therefore as load gets dropped for whatever reason it must be balanced with supply being dropped in parallel. "Electricity" can't just sit on the wires like water sits in the pipes waiting to be used. Power generation must be immediately consumed, as in about 80% of the speed of light. @Eyes Wide Open is wrong to talk about "electrons" going to the customer, since it's AC they basically oscillate back and forth. What does go to the customer is an electromagnetic wave. Kirchoff's Law describes how the voltage diminishes in a set pattern as it is "consumed" by resistance. From the generation perspective everything "out there" is resistance. 

Different kinds of generating equipment have different advantages and disadvantages. Coal fired combined cycle plants take hours to get up to speed and are very cranky when they're powered down. Gas fired turbines can dial up quickly on the order of 15 minutes to full capacity. Wind turbines run the gamut. In Texas as Sebastian pointed out, losing wind caused a cascade of "accidents", which crippled the system. 

The operators if wind produce power based on weather reports. If the forecast says sustained 10-20 mph winds for the next week, they commit to delivering power. However, in this event, the wind was there but so was the ice. So they quickly shut down, which immediately caused the other generators to strain to meet the same load that was there a minute ago. They can't just "make up" even 10% at the drop of a hat, and contrary to ERCOT missives, wind was 25% of the power generation when this house of cards fell down. 

In order it went like this. Wind dropped (while actual wind was still blowing) so load had to be shed immediately. Too much load was shed (it's an imperfect system) so generation was stopped, and unfortunately because this was unforeseen that generation was steam, which doesn't like being shut down. Meanwhile demand keeps climbing because it's cold and people are cranking up their thermostats. More insufficient supply, more shed load, lather rinse repeat. 

That's as simplistic as I can make it. I blog on a mobile device not my keyboard so it's a pain to write long posts and formatting is next to impossible (no tabs for instance).

I shall stick to the subject matter of frequency response as a way of keeping the grid stable. 

The National Grid is licensed to run the transmission network of the UK. 

In response to its licence commitments it states: 

We have a licence obligation to control system frequency at 50Hz plus or minus 1%. We make sure there is sufficient generation and demand held in readiness to manage all credible circumstances that might result in frequency variations. On this page you can find out more about the different types of frequency response.

Frequency response services | National Grid ESO

So basically 49.5-50.5 hz is considered the acceptable range for running a stable grid network which would explain why 49.7 Hz is a trigger point for fast response services to chip in. I don't know how this compares in other countries however what I do  know is the UK hasn't suffered rolling power cuts since 1974 which in anycase were caused by a national miners strike and hasn't  suffered any sudden blackouts anywhere near the scale the US has. Every 5-6 years an area suffers a blackout for a few hours - usually when a nuke trips and goes off line. 

Maybe monitoring system voltage specifically is another way of doing this? 

Perhaps the UK govt can loosen the licence conditions and then we too might have a grid network like California or Texas? 

[NickW + 2,714]

57 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

No, the new climate models are showing a cooling phase of several decades. Not related to atmospheric CO2.

Any linkys please and what cycle is this related to? 

We are basically at the solar minimum of the solar magnetic cycle (11 year periodicity) which drives sunspots - it will start increasing now for a peak mid decade. This has a minor effect on the climate between max and minimum. 

Although for kids quite good for a quick read

What Is the Solar Cycle? | NASA Space Place – NASA Science for Kids

More detailed

Solar Cycle | Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Physics

[Boat + 1,324]

5 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Nick, you are attempting to rob the tax base IMHO by forcing wind turbines on people who can barely pay their taxes already. You know very well that the super rich never get taxed in a way that hits them as hard as the middle class although they pay far more as a percentage of income than the poor. You also know that the poor often waste their money in frivolous and unhealthy ways. You should know that the middle class is being decimated by taxes of all kinds. Wake up and see the truth. The middle class is being destroyed by people who want to waste money. 

Nobody is forcing wind on anybody. At least not in Texas. What Texas does is buy power from the cheapest source. Huge chunks of power from wind is snapped up by large corporations because they can buy it cheaper than coal and lock that price in for 20 years. The government is not buying or installing wind.  It’s true they get a subsidy which in turn gives wind an advantage that kills coal over time. But we’re happy about that. But all this wind farm construction is voluntary and the purchase of their electricity is based on price. 
You could start a coal plant tomorrow and sell electricity on the grid. Nobody is stopping you. It’s just that wind, solar and nat gas have taken the profit out of coal by having cheaper prices. 
Wind and solar keep getting cheaper. When battery storage gets cheap enough it’s game over for FF. I think you may have a couple of decades left.

[Boat + 1,324]

Ron, do you know why California was going solar decades ahead of the rest of us? Pollution. Like China they couldn’t breath. A couple years ago they had 8 out of the 10 most polluted cities in the US. Those billionaires and millionaires don’t want their families to die early. 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

23 minutes ago, Boat said:

Nobody is forcing wind on anybody. At least not in Texas. What Texas does is buy power from the cheapest source. Huge chunks of power from wind is snapped up by large corporations because they can buy it cheaper than coal and lock that price in for 20 years. The government is not buying or installing wind.  It’s true they get a subsidy which in turn gives wind an advantage that kills coal over time. But we’re happy about that. But all this wind farm construction is voluntary and the purchase of their electricity is based on price. 
You could start a coal plant tomorrow and sell electricity on the grid. Nobody is stopping you. It’s just that wind, solar and nat gas have taken the profit out of coal by having cheaper prices. 
Wind and solar keep getting cheaper. When battery storage gets cheap enough it’s game over for FF. I think you may have a couple of decades left.

https://www.factcheck.org/2019/07/does-wind-work-without-subsidies/

https://www.americaspower.org/its-time-to-end-subsidies-for-renewable-energy/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-renewable-energy-tax-credits/trump-administration-agrees-to-help-wind-farms-with-subsidy-tweak-idUSKBN22K05T

A large portion of subsidies are sent overseas. 

Much of the wind and solar power deployed in the United States is owned by foreign firms, and the tax credits that these power projects generate are collected by international corporations.  One study found that of the $24.5 billion in PTC credits awarded between 2007 and 2016, just 15 companies received three quarters of those credits, and 42% of that total ($8.2 billion) went to seven overseas firms.[xiii]

Edited February 17, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[ronwagn + 6,290]

5 hours ago, NickW said:

 

The subject matter was about insulating poorly insulated housing in low income households so I don't know why you have introduced all that clutter?

 

RE tax - In a fair progressive tax system (which the US does not have)  income tax goes up at least in proportion to your income

Ex. 

Ron Earns $50K and pays $8K in taxes

Nick Earns $100K and pays $20K in taxes

Bob Earns $500K and pays $150K in taxes

Jeff earns $1 bn and pays $300m in taxes

The key to this firstly is to have a progressive tax rate system and secondly to remove all the tax dodges* that in particular the very rich use to get off paying tax and dumping all the burden on the middle classes. 

* Including BS 'charity' contributions. 

 

Nick, what are B.S. charities and who decides what is a legitimate charity? You have a point, Trump virtually eliminated most charitable deductions with his latest tax bill. The amount needed for additional deductions was way beyond the average total. The wealthy probably get a great benefit and influence our future by many of them that the middle class would not approve of. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

14 hours ago, turbguy said:

I'd prefer that the Government just sell the naming rights.

Can you imagine:  YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK,   brought to you by Frito-Lay.

I am sure it would be an improvement. Yellowstone is very underdeveloped for recreational use as are all of the National Parks. Our population has tripled since they were set up. The authorities want to keep them the same way they were when they served very few people and many of them were wealthy. It is time to open them up for the people. Disney had a great plan for Mineral King in the Sierras and was turned down. Virtually nobody gets to enjoy it and it should be a park of some kind, with good roads and facilities. https://www.nps.gov/seki/planyourvisit/mineralkingcg.htm

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

@Ward Smith and Nick, I think you fellows are overlooking the role that system voltage plays in system operations.  When you get a load that exceeds the generator rating capacity, the generator (or combination of generators) will attempt to meet the load by both a speed (cyclic) reduction and a voltage reduction.  Anyone who has run a small diesel generator has undoubtedly experienced this phenomenon.

If the final step-down is say the {U.S.] 120 volts, then a 10% overload would drop the voltage to 120 - 12 = 108 volts.  Any mechanical device on the system will be able to operate at 108.  If the voltage drops to say 100 volts, then some devices that have computer-chip circuit boards in them will fail to operate.  But that is quite a drop for a grid system!  

You are going to get a voltage drop before you get much of a frequency drop.  The "grid" works specifically because the load devices can handle voltage drops, except for very specific systems such as banking terminals.  That is why banks have these automatic voltage regulators affixed to their input lines.  Cheers. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

1 minute ago, ronwagn said:

Our population has tripled since they were set up.

On the other hand, letting the population numbers decay to say 100 million for the USA is another eminently viable alternative. It would open up quite a bit of free space!

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 minute ago, Jan van Eck said:

On the other hand, letting the population numbers decay to say 100 million for the USA is another eminently viable alternative. It would open up quite a bit of free space!

We have millions of acres of free space, unlike Europe. Then there are Alaska and Canada but they are too damn cold except for three or four months per year. Too bad global warming is so slow! Meanwhile people in America have been moving further south since air conditioning was invented. The population center is now near Springfield, Missouri and will hit Arkansas or Oklahoma next. 

[turbguy + 1,543]

2 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

@Ward Smith and Nick, I think you fellows are overlooking the role that system voltage plays in system operations.  When you get a load that exceeds the generator rating capacity, the generator (or combination of generators) will attempt to meet the load by both a speed (cyclic) reduction and a voltage reduction.  Anyone who has run a small diesel generator has undoubtedly experienced this phenomenon.

If the final step-down is say the {U.S.] 120 volts, then a 10% overload would drop the voltage to 120 - 12 = 108 volts.  Any mechanical device on the system will be able to operate at 108.  If the voltage drops to say 100 volts, then some devices that have computer-chip circuit boards in them will fail to operate.  But that is quite a drop for a grid system!  

You are going to get a voltage drop before you get much of a frequency drop.  The "grid" works specifically because the load devices can handle voltage drops, except for very specific systems such as banking terminals.  That is why banks have these automatic voltage regulators affixed to their input lines.  Cheers. 

System voltage suppression ('brown-outs") was used in the past to reduce system loads.  Particularly resistive loads (incandescent lighting, for instance).

Voltage throughout the system can still be controlled (WITHIN LIMITS) through:

Generator excitation current

Tap changers on system transformers

VAR adjustesr (such as capacitor banks).

...and a few more.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

Just now, turbguy said:

System voltage suppression ('brown-outs") was used in the past to reduce system loads.  Particularly resistive loads (incandescent lighting, for instance).

Voltage throughout the system can still be controlled (WITHIN LIMITS) through:

Generator excitation current

Tap changers on system transformers

VAR adjustesr (such as capacitor banks).

...and a few more.

All very true. 

The problem with some of those remedies (such as tap changes on system transformers) is that it puts the total load back up to where it strains the generator.  So although the local device on the downstream end of that buffering transformer gets that specific device back to where it was designed to run, it does so at the expense of the other customers, some of whom will end up being dropped off the grid. 

[Boat + 1,324]

58 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

https://www.factcheck.org/2019/07/does-wind-work-without-subsidies/

https://www.americaspower.org/its-time-to-end-subsidies-for-renewable-energy/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-renewable-energy-tax-credits/trump-administration-agrees-to-help-wind-farms-with-subsidy-tweak-idUSKBN22K05T

A large portion of subsidies are sent overseas. 

Much of the wind and solar power deployed in the United States is owned by foreign firms, and the tax credits that these power projects generate are collected by international corporations.  One study found that of the $24.5 billion in PTC credits awarded between 2007 and 2016, just 15 companies received three quarters of those credits, and 42% of that total ($8.2 billion) went to seven overseas firms.[xiii]

All this crying over 25 billion over 10 years. I guess you will really cry with Biden’s 1.7 trillion over 10 years. Then the Trump 70 trillion for the military over 10 years.
But yea the 25 billion to get wind and solar to scale was chump change. The Covid relief bill Trump passes was 3 trillion with an apparent 1.9 trillion to come from Biden. 
You need to switch gears and think battery and the mining it will take for 100,000,000 batteries per year in a few decades. Who will be the Rockefeller of the new age. China currently has over 60% of this market while you worry about coal and windmills. Kinda like worrying about the phone booth.

Edited February 17, 2021 by Boat

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

15 minutes ago, Boat said:

All this crying over 25 billion over 10 years. I guess you will really cry with Biden’s 1.7 trillion over 10 years. Then the Trump 70 trillion for the military over 10 years.
But yea the 25 billion to get wind and solar to scale was chump change. The Covid relief bill Trump passes was 3 trillion with an apparent 1.9 trillion to come from Biden. 
You need to switch gears and think battery and the mining it will take for 100,000,000 batteries per year in a few decades. Who will be the Rockefeller of the new age. China currently has over 60% of this market while you worry about coal and windmills. Kinda like worrying about the phone booth.

lather rinse and repeat...or rinse lather and repeat...

[ronwagn + 6,290]

4 hours ago, NickW said:

depends where you look. Obesity bad in both countries but is worse in the USA. 

Food appears to be cheaper in the US

The range and quality of food from what I have told is generally better in the UK. I dont know first hand but several people who lived in both countries have said this. 

I suspect our poor populations have equally bad diets.

What we don't generally have in the UK are food deserts 

I am somewhat spoiled by having a wonderful wife who is a great cook. We seldom eat out, but do eat fast food occasionally. I know my nutrition but am too fond of bread and butter. I now do intermittent fasting and only eat from about 5P to bedtime with an occasional early protein bar if active. You can definitely get fat on a nutritious diet. On top of that I take a wide range of supplements, even more so since COVID struck. Vitamin D3 is the most overlooked along with B complex IMHO. 

[NickW + 2,714]

6 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Nick, what are B.S. charities and who decides what is a legitimate charity? You have a point, Trump virtually eliminated most charitable deductions with his latest tax bill. The amount needed for additional deductions was way beyond the average total. The wealthy probably get a great benefit and influence our future by many of them that the middle class would not approve of. 

Bullsh1t

Usually a way of funnelling money back to yourself or your cronies. 

Good examples in the UK are private  schools for the rich  that have somehow gained charity status because they give a few scholarships to plebs

[ronwagn + 6,290]

4 hours ago, NickW said:

depends where you look. Obesity bad in both countries but is worse in the USA. 

Food appears to be cheaper in the US

The range and quality of food from what I have told is generally better in the UK. I dont know first hand but several people who lived in both countries have said this. 

I suspect our poor populations have equally bad diets.

What we don't generally have in the UK are food deserts 

The best thing about all the British immigrants is that you have a wide range of foods available. Living in Britain allows you to get to foreign food very easily. My town of about 75,000 can't keep an Indian restaurant open even though we have a lot of Indian doctors. When I first moved here we had no Mexican restaurant and now have several but Covid has probably killed some. We do have a small Thai place. Chinese restaurants are usually available. Italian is basically considered American and we do have an Olive Garden. Yes I am one of their fans.  

[Otis11 + 551]

Sorry if this has already been discussed... didn't read all 11 pages.

But as the events that transpired these past few days come to light, from what I can tell the astute observer will conclude we need more Natural Gas pipelines. NG distribution was the achilles heel. Lots went wrong, but if we had more NG distribution, things would have been rectified quickly. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

20 minutes ago, Boat said:

Nobody is forcing wind on anybody. At least not in Texas. What Texas does is buy power from the cheapest source. Huge chunks of power from wind is snapped up by large corporations because they can buy it cheaper than coal and lock that price in for 20 years. The government is not buying or installing wind.  It’s true they get a subsidy which in turn gives wind an advantage that kills coal over time. But we’re happy about that. But all this wind farm construction is voluntary and the purchase of their electricity is based on price. 
You could start a coal plant tomorrow and sell electricity on the grid. Nobody is stopping you. It’s just that wind, solar and nat gas have taken the profit out of coal by having cheaper prices. 
Wind and solar keep getting cheaper. When battery storage gets cheap enough it’s game over for FF. I think you may have a couple of decades left.

Everything you just said is false. Every. Single. Thing. 

To begin, the price of wind generated power is higher than coal. No one is pricing out wind power 20 years. You sort of got the subsidy right, but only partially. As to price, you clearly have no idea how utility and transportation committees operate at the state level.

Since deregulation, utilities were allowed to "break up" into one (or more thru subsidiaries) camps. Those are Genco's (power generating companies), Disco's (Power distribution), Transco's (transmission) and Marko's (marketing, trading ). Part of the reason for the messes we have today is this hodgepodge of entities where before it was all under one roof. @NickW I'd be surprised if jolly old England fell for this stupidity.

Remember the Enron fiasco? They were a product of this mess and fully capitalized on it to create the rolling blackouts in California that were completely fake. The blackouts were real, but the reason for them were false signals Enron was injecting into the system. My friend was a senior exec with a Marko at the time and was the counterparty to a lot of those Enron trades.

After that he became a senior exec at the company building the world's largest power plants. Even though they had all the permits, once Obama got elected they were never allowed to build the coal plant they'd already begun. When Obama said, "We're going to kill coal" he wasn't whistling Dixie. They were able to salvage some of their effort and convert that plant to natural gas. Some simple math for you. A 1GW coal fired power plant can produce how much power using natural gas as the fuel? Hint, much less than 1GW. To my knowledge, even though Trump was trying dutifully to reduce the regulations of the Obama era, no new coal plants were built. Several Federal court cases said Trump could not undo an Obama executive order, meanwhile every Xiden EO reversed a Trump EO.  Pays to be on the cheating team no? 

To summarize, the very heavy thumb of government is on the scales concerning power generation in this country. No new coal plants are being built and the older ones are being mothballed. They were replaced by Gas fired plants, which aren't as efficient on a BTU basis. Everyone looked smart when gas was cheap, they won't look that smart when they stop giving it away after fracking is history. 

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

3 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

@Ward Smith and Nick, I think you fellows are overlooking the role that system voltage plays in system operations.  When you get a load that exceeds the generator rating capacity, the generator (or combination of generators) will attempt to meet the load by both a speed (cyclic) reduction and a voltage reduction.  Anyone who has run a small diesel generator has undoubtedly experienced this phenomenon.

If the final step-down is say the {U.S.] 120 volts, then a 10% overload would drop the voltage to 120 - 12 = 108 volts.  Any mechanical device on the system will be able to operate at 108.  If the voltage drops to say 100 volts, then some devices that have computer-chip circuit boards in them will fail to operate.  But that is quite a drop for a grid system!  

You are going to get a voltage drop before you get much of a frequency drop.  The "grid" works specifically because the load devices can handle voltage drops, except for very specific systems such as banking terminals.  That is why banks have these automatic voltage regulators affixed to their input lines.  Cheers. 

Exactly my point to @NickW when he was talking about frequency. You'll note I mentioned voltage but he didn't respond to that. You're exactly correct, Power is defined as voltage times current. Those are the watts we consume. Notice what isn't there? Frequency. 

You can spend an unlimited amount of money on doodads for the grid. Getting the UTC to sign off on those is the problem. I worked for the company that did pioneering work on time of use control, automated meter reading and the rest, which in an ideal world would allow for all sorts of magical benefits.

In practice the utility makes the case in voluminous reports the unelected bunglecrats in the utility transportation commission never bothers to read, before they show up for the one week a year they actually do anything and vote no. Hence @turbguy can point to them as existing, which they certainly do, but they're never actually deployed in the field because they couldn't make a rate case for it. I left that company decades ago because of that and never looked back. The stuff I designed still works perfectly, utilities hang on to old tech like nobody else.