.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

Texas got into trouble precisely as Ward laid it out. 

They initially built windmills in the wind corridor to sell wind energy to Florida. This became--with subsidies--a big business.

Then they truly bought into the renewables crusade. They did NOT use wind in order to free up natural gas for exportation--they're still flaring massive amounts of natural gas @ the wellhead. They used wind because it was heavily subsidized by the feds. 

I think it will be near impossible to get another windmill project approved in the state of Texas. 

And in the meantime, they're going to revert back to using natural gas utility plants. 

And yes, they will also have Mr. Musk set up some lithium-ion battery stores to handle capacity electrical needs. 

One thing you can put your money on: Texas will fix this, and quickly. And the people will take care of their own. Texas is larger than most countries and has an indomitable spirit. This too shall pass.  

[turbguy + 1,540]

40 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Texas bought into the green dream and it has turned into a nightmare

Do you believe penetration of "green" is going to stop?  There's even more and more planned and coming into service, this year, in Texas.

 

It got REALLY cold.

The population began to increase demand far above ERCOT's winter peak expectation.

The population began to increase demand for nat gas for heating.

Generation became inadequate to support the entire load for a wide host of reasons.

Imports through DC ties became constrained.

Transmission thermal constraints reared their "ugly head".

Standby thermal units either failed to start, and operating units tripped, for a wide host of causes.

Large industrial interruptibles were shed.

Rolling outages were imposed to avoid a grid collapse.

Rolling outages became extended outages in areas of concentrated population, particularly in older distribution networks where such switching is done locally.

Thermal units slowly began returning to service once obstructions were overcome.

Slowly, the grid began to emerge from emergency conditions.

 

Edited February 19, 2021 by turbguy

[Ecocharger + 1,460]

4 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Texas got into trouble precisely as Ward laid it out. 

They initially built windmills in the wind corridor to sell wind energy to Florida. This became--with subsidies--a big business.

Then they truly bought into the renewables crusade. They did NOT use wind in order to free up natural gas for exportation--they're still flaring massive amounts of natural gas @ the wellhead. They used wind because it was heavily subsidized by the feds. 

I think it will be near impossible to get another windmill project approved in the state of Texas. 

And in the meantime, they're going to revert back to using natural gas utility plants. 

And yes, they will also have Mr. Musk set up some lithium-ion battery stores to handle capacity electrical needs. 

One thing you can put your money on: Texas will fix this, and quickly. And the people will take care of their own. Texas is larger than most countries and has an indomitable spirit. This too shall pass.  

The freezing pipes issue in this recent cold spell in Texas was apparently due to having the pipes laid above ground...because no one expected this cold phase to roll in. Up north the pipes are laid underground...did they freeze? No. The northerners expect cold weather. 

In other words, this is an issue which can be easily dealt with, provided that cold temperatures are expected.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

1 minute ago, Ecocharger said:

The freezing pipes issue in this recent cold spell in Texas was apparently due to having the pipes laid above ground...because no one expected this cold phase to roll in. Up north the pipes are laid underground...did they freeze? No. The northerners expect cold weather. 

In other words, this is an issue which can be easily dealt with, provided that cold temperatures are expected.

I presume you mean "gas pipes," in which case the network of pipes at wellheads and gathering plants are indeed above-ground, but of course distribution lines are buried. The problem was likely formation of methane hydrates because the pressure head was increased. Coupled with very low temperatures, that's the recipe for those wicked clathrates. 

If perchance you meant "water pipes," they of course are laid underground. But they also come out through walls, for access. The walls in Texas--particularly south Texas--aren't nearly as well insulated as in cold climes. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

5 minutes ago, NickW said:

The investment in wind freed up gas to export. 

The nightmare comes from not managing the network properly and will happen again and again if people keep chasing red herring conspiracies. 

Perhaps consider.....

1. Build up a decent operating reserve comparable with other US states which I understand is 15%

2. Require CCGT to be dual fuel. Most CCGT plant in Europe hold 1-2 days fuel distillate as a back up

3. Set up contracts with organisations (hospitals, large factories etc ) with emergency gen sets to fire up on call from the transmission operator. My firm has 2MW of Gen sets at its data centre that do this. 

4. Enhance load shedding arrangements to manage unexpected peaks

5. Do something about end use efficiency which shaves off peak demand (as the 'Evil' sierra club were recommending in 2018😉)

6. Ask Uncle Elon to build a big battery

7. Spend some money on frost protection

1. The operating Reserve capacity was adequate if the demand had met expectation. 15% becomes meaningless without the target number. Since winter demand is historically low 20 GW were offline for scheduled maintenance. Some of that maintenance might have involved 7, "frost proofing". This was however, no frost this was a deep freeze

2. We don't know that didn't happen. If things are breaking and freezing, that could easily include supply lines to liquid fuels

3. Interesting, but regulations here don't allow for "back feeding" into the system. Also I'm not convinced your data center operator would be happy about risking the data center to help out the utility. But I like the concept, it merits further study

4. They did load shedding, but I seriously doubt there was 20GW of "voluntary" intermittent customers. I know that in California fit for instance they'll pay you to accept interruptable power, but there are no where enough takers

5. Sigh. Two issues. First homeowners are more than willing to insulate, especially when there are incentives. However under the Brave New World Order, you don't own but rent, and landlords don't give a rip what you're spending for power. Over 50% are renters so there you are. 

6. That "big battery" might have lasted a few hours but this outage was over a week

7. You're talking about a place that has an average temp of 70F. People in the great white north go to Texas to get away from the cold in the winter. How many billions should they spend of ratepayers money for an event that according to AGW mythology is never going to happen? Shouldn't they be building dikes on the beaches to keep that ocean from flooding them?  

[surrept33 + 609]

1 hour ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Texas got into trouble precisely as Ward laid it out. 

They initially built windmills in the wind corridor to sell wind energy to Florida. This became--with subsidies--a big business.

Then they truly bought into the renewables crusade. They did NOT use wind in order to free up natural gas for exportation--they're still flaring massive amounts of natural gas @ the wellhead. They used wind because it was heavily subsidized by the feds. 

I think it will be near impossible to get another windmill project approved in the state of Texas. 

And in the meantime, they're going to revert back to using natural gas utility plants. 

And yes, they will also have Mr. Musk set up some lithium-ion battery stores to handle capacity electrical needs. 

One thing you can put your money on: Texas will fix this, and quickly. And the people will take care of their own. Texas is larger than most countries and has an indomitable spirit. This too shall pass.  

It's hard to think that a business friendly state like Texas will not build more renewables to meet demand especially since it creates jobs in state. A lot of things get subsidized, but by who? If you just extrapolate directionally, Corporate America is probably not going to stop in buying up RECs and creating latent demand (these tend to be turned into vPPAs which are a financial instrument that helps securitize the risk and return). Keep in mind this is required if you are domiciled in various states like California or the EU. There is also general expectation that CSRs and ESG reporting requirements (not only carbon, but even things like fresh water) are probably going to get tighter for FY2030, especially as it relates to carbon externalities across supply chains (look up EPA scope 1-3 emissions. this is how companies tend to grade each other now even), possibly starting with the next international COP (which is happening this year. it's been 5 years since the 2015 paris accords. every 5 years countries commit to a 'measure/adjust' cycle). Keep in mind that despite the US leaving the accord, most multinational companies did not, because it was basically a coinflip that a democrat would get elected and rejoin. It's already happened in various other places, even in China. 

I think most industries, especially as it relates to anything to do with infrastructure and construction will probably get a boost. That probably means more continuously updates of what best practices are relative to frictionless 'smart' buildings and the multiple levels of advanced  'smart' physical grids (or whatever infrastructure, keep in mind that the distinction between industries has been heavily blurred over the years due to conglomeration (but this tends to go through cycles). 

If you look at the failure of the Kyoto Protocol, it was mostly because of narrow interests (Russia), so people tended to note it down as a case study over the years. We almost have a (implicit defined, mostly because of the growth of the internet's reach in internetworking digital business) Kyoto protocol now 20 years later. 

Edited February 19, 2021 by surrept33

[Coffeeguyzz + 454]

Mr. Richard D, Nick

Dr. Valentina Zharkova released an 8 page report "Heartbeat of the Sun" in 2015 describing a model of multiple, asynchronous dynamos within the sun. (Online, downloadable, and able to be read by all).

Her background in statistical mathematics combined with her doctorate in astrophysics led her to identify predictable patterns relating to ever shifting solar radiation (and visible solar spots).

Applying her model backwards to 400 years of recorded sunspots has shown a correlative accuracy of over 97%.

In addition, Dr. Zharkova's prediction of the nature of the just-completed Solar Cycle 24 was one of only 2 papers (out of 150 contributors) shown to be accurate.

There are several online interviews of this talented woman who continuously stresses that dramatic Narnia/Frozen scenarios are misguided, but threatened crop production is a real concern.

 

The trough years - weather-wise - will span 2028 through 2032, with this current weather expected to endure through the mid 2040s.

 

Nick, the reduced solar radiation enables the ever-present cosmic radiation to more prominently  impact the earth.

Some intrepid scientists are starting to state that movement in the earth's molten core -  susceptible to solar-scale changes of magnetic input - may actually be a contributory factor in the observed/recorded increases in volcanic activity durning low solar sunspot periods.

 

All this might prompt a more modest (humbling?) approach as to what we actually think we know.

[NickW + 2,714]

54 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Texas got into trouble precisely as Ward laid it out. 

They initially built windmills in the wind corridor to sell wind energy to Florida. This became--with subsidies--a big business.

Then they truly bought into the renewables crusade. They did NOT use wind in order to free up natural gas for exportation--they're still flaring massive amounts of natural gas @ the wellhead. They used wind because it was heavily subsidized by the feds. 

I think it will be near impossible to get another windmill project approved in the state of Texas. 

And in the meantime, they're going to revert back to using natural gas utility plants. 

And yes, they will also have Mr. Musk set up some lithium-ion battery stores to handle capacity electrical needs. 

One thing you can put your money on: Texas will fix this, and quickly. And the people will take care of their own. Texas is larger than most countries and has an indomitable spirit. This too shall pass.  

Whats the CAPEX and OPEX on 15 GW of OCGT that used say once every 10 years for a week or two? 

[NickW + 2,714]

27 minutes ago, Coffeeguyzz said:

Mr. Richard D, Nick

Dr. Valentina Zharkova released an 8 page report "Heartbeat of the Sun" in 2015 describing a model of multiple, asynchronous dynamos within the sun. (Online, downloadable, and able to be read by all).

Her background in statistical mathematics combined with her doctorate in astrophysics led her to identify predictable patterns relating to ever shifting solar radiation (and visible solar spots).

Applying her model backwards to 400 years of recorded sunspots has shown a correlative accuracy of over 97%.

In addition, Dr. Zharkova's prediction of the nature of the just-completed Solar Cycle 24 was one of only 2 papers (out of 150 contributors) shown to be accurate.

There are several online interviews of this talented woman who continuously stresses that dramatic Narnia/Frozen scenarios are misguided, but threatened crop production is a real concern.

 

The trough years - weather-wise - will span 2028 through 2032, with this current weather expected to endure through the mid 2040s.

 

Nick, the reduced solar radiation enables the ever-present cosmic radiation to more prominently  impact the earth.

Some intrepid scientists are starting to state that movement in the earth's molten core -  susceptible to solar-scale changes of magnetic input - may actually be a contributory factor in the observed/recorded increases in volcanic activity durning low solar sunspot periods.

 

All this might prompt a more modest (humbling?) approach as to what we actually think we know.

Ok - so how does insulating our houses better, making our businesses more energy efficient and utilising new sources of energy work against this in the event the next LIA is upon us? 

 

[NickW + 2,714]

46 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

1. The operating Reserve capacity was adequate if the demand had met expectation. 15% becomes meaningless without the target number. Since winter demand is historically low 20 GW were offline for scheduled maintenance. Some of that maintenance might have involved 7, "frost proofing". This was however, no frost this was a deep freeze

2. We don't know that didn't happen. If things are breaking and freezing, that could easily include supply lines to liquid fuels

3. Interesting, but regulations here don't allow for "back feeding" into the system. Also I'm not convinced your data center operator would be happy about risking the data center to help out the utility. But I like the concept, it merits further study

4. They did load shedding, but I seriously doubt there was 20GW of "voluntary" intermittent customers. I know that in California fit for instance they'll pay you to accept interruptable power, but there are no where enough takers

5. Sigh. Two issues. First homeowners are more than willing to insulate, especially when there are incentives. However under the Brave New World Order, you don't own but rent, and landlords don't give a rip what you're spending for power. Over 50% are renters so there you are. 

6. That "big battery" might have lasted a few hours but this outage was over a week

7. You're talking about a place that has an average temp of 70F. People in the great white north go to Texas to get away from the cold in the winter. How many billions should they spend of ratepayers money for an event that according to AGW mythology is never going to happen? Shouldn't they be building dikes on the beaches to keep that ocean from flooding them?  

1. ERCOT had a declared reserve of 8%. Had it been 15% that would have been several extra GW

2. Fuel distillate is similar to diesel and can be treated to prevent freezing up. The question is open are your CCGT dual fuel. 

3. Regs can be changed. The arrangement is no different from home solar and feed back - just on a bigger scale. 

[turbguy + 1,540]

33 minutes ago, NickW said:

1. ERCOT had a declared reserve of 8%. Had it been 15% that would have been several extra GW

2. Fuel distillate is similar to diesel and can be treated to prevent freezing up. The question is open are your CCGT dual fuel. 

3. Regs can be changed. The arrangement is no different from home solar and feed back - just on a bigger scale. 

Careful.  Backfeeds can cause significant safety issues for line workers.  The regulations are going to be considerable, and require some investment to adhere to.

[Coffeeguyzz + 454]

Nick

Regardless of the varying views presented on this thread, no one would credibly accuse you of being a dummy.

You, of all people, grasp the profound implications in the acceptance of  a provable model that questions the previous decades long assumptions vis a vis CO2, et al, versus Solar components in affecting the earth's climate.

 

There need not be any conflict whatsoever in a striving for prudent, human welfare-enhancing use of our various energy sources. (That SMR stuff sure seems intriguing).

This holds true for present and future generations.

 

However, the stupendous upending of recently entrenched political/social/economic views will be a sight to behold when it becomes recognized the true extent  of the sun's impact upon our climate.

The fact that the Grand Solar Minimum is rapidly approaching is rippling outwards throughout the greater consciousness of the world's population.

 

How we all respond is still to be determined.

 

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

54 minutes ago, NickW said:

Whats the CAPEX and OPEX on 15 GW of OCGT that used say once every 10 years for a week or two?

 

44 minutes ago, NickW said:

1. ERCOT had a declared reserve of 8%. Had it been 15% that would have been several extra GW

2. Fuel distillate is similar to diesel and can be treated to prevent freezing up. The question is open are your CCGT dual fuel. 

3. Regs can be changed. The arrangement is no different from home solar and feed back - just on a bigger scale. 

You answered your number one with your own question above. Is it really worth it to install GW of power generation for a once in a generation event? The Magic Eight Ball says… No

2. I know what it is, but we don't even know what all went wrong and where. 

3. OK, but then what? We'll have to see whether for instance a hospital administrator is willing to potentially sacrifice her equipment and fuel to help the utility, only to have it bite her in the butt if she loses power and doesn't have generation available. People tend to hoard for a reason

Edited February 19, 2021 by Ward Smith

[NickW + 2,714]

1 hour ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Texas got into trouble precisely as Ward laid it out. 

They initially built windmills in the wind corridor to sell wind energy to Florida. This became--with subsidies--a big business.

Then they truly bought into the renewables crusade. They did NOT use wind in order to free up natural gas for exportation--they're still flaring massive amounts of natural gas @ the wellhead. They used wind because it was heavily subsidized by the feds. 

I think it will be near impossible to get another windmill project approved in the state of Texas. 

And in the meantime, they're going to revert back to using natural gas utility plants. 

And yes, they will also have Mr. Musk set up some lithium-ion battery stores to handle capacity electrical needs. 

One thing you can put your money on: Texas will fix this, and quickly. And the people will take care of their own. Texas is larger than most countries and has an indomitable spirit. This too shall pass.  

Flared gas from oil Wells is stranded gas. 

The gas that ends up at LNG plants is in the pipelines the say ones used by CCGT plant. Gas saved by wind is therefore available for export.

[NickW + 2,714]

11 minutes ago, turbguy said:

Careful.  Backfeeds can cause significant safety issues for line workers.  The regulations are going to be considerable, and require some investment to adhere to.

in the UK we have at least 2GW tie-in in this way. They have to be fitted with an inverter that cuts it off if frequency falls below a certain level. 

Its by far the cheapest way of bringing short term operative reserve into the system and prob the quickest as that plant will already be there in texas. 

 

Edited February 19, 2021 by NickW

[NickW + 2,714]

7 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

 

You answered your number one with your own question above. Is it really worth it to install GW of power generation for a once in a generation event? The Magic Eight Ball says… No

2. I know what it is, but we don't even know what all went wrong and where. 

3. OK, but then what? We'll have to see whether for instance a hospital administrator is willing to potentially sacrifice his equipment and fuel to help the utility, only to have it bite her in the butt if she loses power and doesn't have generation available. People tend to hoard for a reason

The use of the hospital generator does not deprive the hospital. Bring it online before grid trip simply takes the  load off the grid. If the grid fails the hospital disconnects and uses the gen set as stand alone

Benefit for the hospital is it gets a capacity payment and payment for the leccy supplied

[turbguy + 1,540]

1 minute ago, Ward Smith said:

 

You answered your number one with your own question above. Is it really worth it to install GW of power generation for a once in a generation event? The Magic Eight Ball says… No

2. I know what it is, but we don't even know what all went wrong and where. 

3. OK, but then what? We'll have to see whether for instance a hospital administrator is willing to potentially sacrifice his equipment and fuel to help the utility, only to have it bite her in the butt if she loses power and doesn't have generation available. People tend to hoard for a reason

It certainty is difficult to economically justify "infrequently used" generation, until you need it.   Then the multi-billions in damage avoided just might influence the public to support it. So your electric bill goes up a cent or 3 per KWH.  I might even be worthwhile for ERCOT itself to own and operate such generation.  I offhand would not trust open market players with that responsibility, but that is my own opinion.

On your second point, I certainly would like to see ERCOT's "sequence of events" recorder's output (with a person available to interpret).

Adding "distributed genertation" might make a small contribution, and also provide some voltage support in local areas that would benefit.  Upon loss of utility power, you just transfer the output to the local load (the hospital), assuming the transfer "rides through" the transient.

 

[turbguy + 1,540]

12 minutes ago, NickW said:

in the UK we have at least 2GW tie-in in this way. They have to be fitted with an inverter that cuts it off if frequency falls below a certain level. 

Its by far the cheapest way of bringing short term operative reserve into the system and prob the quickest as that plant will already be there in texas. 

 

Yup, certainly can be done.  Perhaps ERCOT is willing to subsidize the required mods.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

1 minute ago, NickW said:

The use of the hospital generator does not deprive the hospital. Bring it online before grid trip simply takes the  load off the grid. If the grid fails the hospital disconnects and uses the gen set as stand alone

Benefit for the hospital is it gets a capacity payment and payment for the leccy supplied

Unless something breaks. Then everyone is SOL. 

Connecting power to an existing grid is not a trifling matter. You must get all three phases in precise alignment, and that's just the start. When transformers go boom because of grid problems, that ricochets back to your genset, often with disastrous results. The brute force mass of the dynamo back at the utility dwarfs that little 2MW genset. It can handle bumps in the road that will destroy your genset. Much, much easier to be an island. A more logical approach is to ask the person with the genset to go offline and just take their load off the system. IMHO 

[NickW + 2,714]

1 minute ago, Ward Smith said:

Unless something breaks. Then everyone is SOL. 

Connecting power to an existing grid is not a trifling matter. You must get all three phases in precise alignment, and that's just the start. When transformers go boom because of grid problems, that ricochets back to your genset, often with disastrous results. The brute force mass of the dynamo back at the utility dwarfs that little 2MW genset. It can handle bumps in the road that will destroy your genset. Much, much easier to be an island. A more logical approach is to ask the person with the genset to go offline and just take their load off the system. IMHO 

never said it was but itsroutinely done across europe. 

Lots of small gen sets do protect against catestrophic failure of one .arge unit.

 

[turbguy + 1,540]

6 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Unless something breaks. Then everyone is SOL. 

Connecting power to an existing grid is not a trifling matter. You must get all three phases in precise alignment, and that's just the start. When transformers go boom because of grid problems, that ricochets back to your genset, often with disastrous results. The brute force mass of the dynamo back at the utility dwarfs that little 2MW genset. It can handle bumps in the road that will destroy your genset. Much, much easier to be an island. A more logical approach is to ask the person with the genset to go offline and just take their load off the system. IMHO 

Auto-sync schemes are very common, but can delay the process at times.  Overcurrent relaying is also common, and probably already in place). 

I agree, it would be much easier to request (or enforce) "islanding" at such facilities. Sort of a modified "interruptable".

It's bad to lose power at your residence.

Even WORSE at a police station, or Hospital.

REALLY BAD to loose power in the power house.

 

Edited February 19, 2021 by turbguy

[NickW + 2,714]

6 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Unless something breaks. Then everyone is SOL. 

Connecting power to an existing grid is not a trifling matter. You must get all three phases in precise alignment, and that's just the start. When transformers go boom because of grid problems, that ricochets back to your genset, often with disastrous results. The brute force mass of the dynamo back at the utility dwarfs that little 2MW genset. It can handle bumps in the road that will destroy your genset. Much, much easier to be an island. A more logical approach is to ask the person with the genset to go offline and just take their load off the system. IMHO 

At our data centre we have 4 500kw units. They grid synchronise fromcold start in about 10 seconds at which point they have lifted 2Mw of demand off the grid. 

Running the units regularly and cycling through the diesel is good for reliability. Furthermore there is good reason to have 4x500kw  rather than1 x 2000kw. Same with hospitals they normally have at least 3 gensets. 

Edited February 19, 2021 by NickW

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

6 minutes ago, NickW said:

Flared gas from oil Wells is stranded gas. 

Stranded because there is inadequate takeaway from newly-exploited shale basins. 

Currently, most of this is in the Delaware Basin, which straddles New Mexico (an exceptionally blue state) and Texas.

The gas burden from that basin is gargantuan. 

So massive, in fact, that there's plenty of gas in Texas to run the entire grid from gas-fired utility plants and export voluminous quantities too. The LNG trains are mostly full. But that's not really the chokepoint. 

Again, the mandate by ERCOT was more wind energy--which fluted upward to about 40% over the last decade. Because of that, less natural gas was needed at the gas utility plants--down to 46% of the whole pie. And because of that rather seismic shift in energy allocation, fewer pipelines were planted than would have been the case otherwise. 

Additionally, to handle some of the Delaware gas, operators had to deal with New Mexico, not such an easy task even before Ms. Deb Haaland was nominated to be Secretary of the Interior, the overseer-at-large over oil and gas leases, which determines the density of pipelines. The political climate in the last year has slowed pipeline construction even more . . . as operators modeled for a worst-case scenario. 

Like I said before, maybe you should tour Texas, and the Permian Basin in particular, before you become too much of an expert. I've read as you fired off one self-important pseudo-scientific treatise after another. So far, all you convinced me of is the tenet straight from Confucius and Cicero that it's pretty hard to perform due diligence from a Lazy-Boy recliner with your laptop in one hand and a bag of Cheetos in the other.  

[turbguy + 1,540]

As an aside, is any poster here IN Texas? 

I have a sister in Willis, and a nephew in Austin,both of which were "impacted".

What's your experiences?

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

9 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Unless something breaks. Then everyone is SOL. 

Connecting power to an existing grid is not a trifling matter. You must get all three phases in precise alignment, and that's just the start. When transformers go boom because of grid problems, that ricochets back to your genset, often with disastrous results. The brute force mass of the dynamo back at the utility dwarfs that little 2MW genset. It can handle bumps in the road that will destroy your genset. Much, much easier to be an island. A more logical approach is to ask the person with the genset to go offline and just take their load off the system. IMHO 

Watching the commentary made and arguments being made it is becoming quite apparent these wind farms were dropped on to or into the grid with little thought towards stability. Pump and Dump comes to mind.