.

[turbguy + 1,543]

8 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

@NickW, @Gerry Maddoux, @Dan Clemmensen @turbguy  et al

The Texas energy disaster definitively explained. Clear, concise, accurate and written by a respectable scientist I admire. You'll see that Gerry and I were pretty accurate in our assessment. If, after reading this some of you still wish to argue I'll just refer to his data and you'll be left arm waving I suspect. Blaming gas plants for this is like blaming a doctor who saved 400 patients working nonstop for 4 days in a disaster for letting 50 more die when he passed out from exhaustion. 

Same graph as mine previously posted.  Nat gas plunged. Before coal, before ST#1, and before average wind. 

WHY? 

I doubt this, but operators INTENTIONALLY removed them from service to get better prices (Enron, anyone?), keeping fingers crossed they could restart and then failed to start for a variety of causes.  I would have to see price charted as well (which could vary by node).

OR

A better "bet", adequate fuel became unavailable.

 

[nsdp + 449]

9 hours ago, turbguy said:

South Texas #1 is a nuc.

Most (if not all) generation would be tripped with a 5% underfrequency condition.  Some with even less.  Turbine blades are "tuned" to avoid damaging resonances at rated speed. 

To be honest, I don't know for certain.  There's significant transformer and generator considerations a well.

59.4 hz is initial trip 59.1 is final lockout. Let IEEE shed some light into your life. "This energy recovery phase delays the grid’s frequency recovery. After Québec’s December 2015 transformer event, for example, the system frequency flat-lined for several seconds at 59.4 Hz before additional power reserves could push it back to 60"  https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/renewables/can-synthetic-inertia-stabilize-power-grids

[turbguy + 1,543]

More hard evidence, but I can only get the granularity down to one hour increments.

BEFORE and AFTER ROLLING BLACKOUTS ANNOUNCED: Wind change, 250MW, Nat Gas change, 9270 MW.

You tell me what fell first...

Edited February 22, 2021 by turbguy

[Refman + 207]

Would be nice to know the capacities, or what was expected to be delivered at that time

[turbguy + 1,543]

26 minutes ago, nsdp said:

59.4 hz is initial trip 59.1 is final lockout. Let IEEE shed some light into your life. "This energy recovery phase delays the grid’s frequency recovery. After Québec’s December 2015 transformer event, for example, the system frequency flat-lined for several seconds at 59.4 Hz before additional power reserves could push it back to 60"  https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/renewables/can-synthetic-inertia-stabilize-power-grids

Thermal and Hydro plant governor's take a little time to increase flows (if any flow remains available), and even then, don't restore frequency back to original due to 5% droop.  Full restoration must be done by manualy or AGC action.

Edited February 22, 2021 by turbguy

[ronwagn + 6,290]

3 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Lets put this in perspective shall we?  Oregon/Washington have ALWAYS had massive power outages every year.  Reason?  Giant tall trees taking out giant tall power lines. 

It is not residential power lines disrupting the power other than in local small areas and all of those people have generators(myself included) and we are the ones clearing the trees off the roads/lines and not the power company.  This does not happen in the East with their shorter trees.  Trees in Western Oregon/Washington are not.  What happens rarely is that you get freezing rain which coats the trees and takes them down with snow thrown in for good measure, especially if a small wind event happens afterward.  Ground is saturated so little holding power for the roots, the trees get coated in a cm of ice if not 2 cm, and then a wind event happens and the giant firs/hemlocks/cedars/maples/oaks get taken out. 

In Oregon/Washington where it does not matter if you have a standard 40 foot cleared zone with standard ~75 high powerlines from the Big Boy power lines.  When you have young 80 year old 120-->150 foot tall trees it does not matter.  The big powerlines are going down.  These trees routinely take out the very big tall power poles, not just the power lines and have even taken out the steel poles as well, so...

Longest we were without power was 3 weeks and our power every year was out for a week on average.  So all of you whiners out east or in Texas, where you bitch if your power even flickers for a couple hours.... Be grateful lumber is so cheap due to these giant fast growing trees out here in the west and we put up with very long consistent power outages due to our tall trees. 

It seems obvious to me but I would think that you could plant smaller trees and harvest them before they became a threat. A peeler tree for plywood or chipboard and pellets. This would have to be mandated by law near power lines.  

[ronwagn + 6,290]

Another insider opinion on power grid failure. Worth reading. https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2021/02/an_insider_explains_why_texans_lost_their_power.html

[surrept33 + 609]

1 hour ago, nsdp said:

59.4 hz is initial trip 59.1 is final lockout. Let IEEE shed some light into your life. "This energy recovery phase delays the grid’s frequency recovery. After Québec’s December 2015 transformer event, for example, the system frequency flat-lined for several seconds at 59.4 Hz before additional power reserves could push it back to 60"  https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/renewables/can-synthetic-inertia-stabilize-power-grids

in addition to this, the building of these types of connections should help in regard to stability control (the city government of NYC is partially financing this one): 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Champlain_Hudson_Power_Express

of course, as you mentioned, 'virtual/synthetic inertia' allows retrofitting AC systems by upgrading the control systems (sometimes this would require upgrading some ancient PLC systems) so that more context aware robust harmonic analysis can be done. It's not just renewables, but the proliferation of solid state electronics everywhere that looks like it may have changed the fundamental physics of the grid (especially transients) in certain ways relative to the "war of the currents". 

Edited February 22, 2021 by surrept33

[turbguy + 1,543]

57 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

@NickW, @Gerry Maddoux, @Dan Clemmensen @turbguy  et al

The Texas energy disaster definitively explained. Clear, concise, accurate and written by a respectable scientist I admire. You'll see that Gerry and I were pretty accurate in our assessment. If, after reading this some of you still wish to argue I'll just refer to his data and you'll be left arm waving I suspect. Blaming gas plants for this is like blaming a doctor who saved 400 patients working nonstop for 4 days in a disaster for letting 50 more die when he passed out from exhaustion. 

 

Did you not see the date range on Figure 3 on that link (shown below)?  I don't give a sh*t about change in fuel mix over that wide a range. I want to know what happened an hour before rolling blackouts to an hour after.  THAT's where the issue lies...

 

[nsdp + 449]

15 minutes ago, turbguy said:

Same graph as mine previously posted.  Nat gas plunged. Before coal, before ST#1, and before average wind. 

WHY? 

I doubt this, but operators INTENTIONALLY removed them from service to get better prices (Enron, anyone?), keeping fingers crossed they could restart and then failed to start for a variety of causes.  I would have to see price charted as well (which could vary by node).

OR

A better "bet", adequate fuel became unavailable.

 

How about the same mistakes made Feb.1-4 2011.  Improper maintenance. Freeze off of functions from cooling towers to valves  various instrumentation. Babcock Power published a bulletin. https://www.babcockpower.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/freeze-protecing-your-power-generation-assets.pdf     

Freeze Protecting Your Power Generation Assets

The number one cause of frozen instruments and/or impulse lines is they were over-looked during the construction phase or improperly heat traced. Once the ambient temperature drops to the freezing point of 32 deg. F, it can take as little as 25 minutes for the condensate in an impulse line to freeze resulting in a plant trip or worse. The freezing of condensate in the impulse lines or diaphragm area of a transmitter will cause false readings and will prevent the system from starting or operating. Additional causes for failure include; poor implementation, insufficient amperage, incorrect installation and insulation of the tracing itself. It is estimated that 60% of the systems currently installed are not working as designed. (in the 2011 weather blackout 85% of ERCOT plants did not function properly)

October 2003 3. Tightening/ClampingOver tightening or the improper clamping of the tubing bundle to its supports can cause the insulation to be compressed and allow the process heat to reach the tracer. 4. High Temperature Tubing Bundles / Bend RadiusTubing bundles used for process temperatures of 1,200 deg. F often require a bend radius of 14” to 48”, depending on manufacturer. Care must be made not to exceed the manufacturers minimum bend radius. If the radius is made too tight, the insulation is compressed locally and may cause failure or the tracer may be shifted from it’s designed location and not be able to provide adequate heat. If the bend radius is exceeded, especially on the larger diameter tubing bundles, the tubing inside the bundle may wander, allowing for a wide variance of heat transfer and eventual failure. 5. Small-bore Pipe, Tube and Valves Small-bore piping, tubing, and valves are often field heat traced and insulated incorrectly. These applications are particularly prone to freezing and present a problem for installers. The typical method of laying on insulating tape, applying an electric heater cable and then adding more insulation tape and sealing with mastic does not provide adequate protection. Only someone who understands the equipment, the installation methodology and its limitations will be able to instruct others how to correctly install said equipment; anything else will result in a trial & error approach that can leave your plant’s freeze protection questionable.

October 2003 be applied for most applications. MI tracing can withstand continuous temperatures of 1,100 deg. F without degradation. A limitation for the use of MI cables is that the cable must be factory finished to a specific length prior to installation. Using MI cable requires the fitters to install the tubing, electricians to put on the tracers, and insulators to finish the process, often without proper engineering guidance. This is yet another reason to purchase a “engineered system solution”. 7. Instrument enclosuresAlbeit expensive, quality enclosures are essential for reliable long term freeze protection. There are two primary types of instrument enclosures used today. Flexible covers that protect only the wetted parts of the instrument and the rigid type enclosure that covers the entire instrument and the associated fittings. The latter method is the best and they can be customized. Rigid, heated, enclosures that enclose the entire instrument are the best method of ensuring instrument freeze protection. These instrument enclosures cannot be arbitrarily removed and they provide the maximum instrument protection and provide freeze protection regardless of the ambient conditions.  ($100 to the first person to find a plant other than GSEC antelope  that complies)

8. Inadequate WeatherproofingProper weatherproofing of the pipe insulation, mastic finishes for applied tapes, and the ends of pre-insulated tubing bundle are essential to ensure a trouble free winter season.

. OwnershipResponsibility of the freeze protection system must be a priority for everyone. Too little money is typically allocated to provide proper winterization protection or operationally checking of the system periodically. One way Vogt can assist is through annual inspections. In this manner, we can assist the Owner/Operator in assuring the existing system remains operable.

What Texas didn't fix will now cost each unit $1,000,0000/day  https://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/ColdWeatherTrainingMaterials/FERC NERC Findings and Recommendations.pdf

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

4 hours ago, turbguy said:

How does an entity go about pay fines to no one?

Wall Street strikes again?  Don't people read all the "fine print"?  Perhaps that's limited to 1/2 the population that's below the median?

Limited to 1/2 the population try 99.9. 

 

[nsdp + 449]

18 minutes ago, turbguy said:

Thermal and Hydro plant governor's take a little time to increase flows (if any flow remains available), and even then, don't restore frequency back to original due to 5% droop.  Full restoration must be done by manualy or AGC action.

That does not meet this standard.   If thermal plants don't make at least 5% per minute they are outof complaince. Hydro does not count for N-1. Been doing this since 1971 starting with Houston Lighting and Power.

3353 Peachtree Road NESuite 600, North TowerAtlanta, GA 30326404-446-2560 | https://www.nerc.com/pa/Stand/Reliability Standards Complete Set/RSCompleteSet.pdfwww.nerc.comReliability Standards for the Bulk Electric Systems of North America

[turbguy + 1,543]

7 minutes ago, nsdp said:

How about the same mistakes made Feb.1-4 2011.  Improper maintenance. Freeze off of functions from cooling towers to valves  various instrumentation. Babcock Power published a bulletin. https://www.babcockpower.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/freeze-protecing-your-power-generation-assets.pdf     

 

What Texas didn't fix will now cost each unit $1,000,0000/day  https://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/ColdWeatherTrainingMaterials/FERC NERC Findings and Recommendations.pdf

BINGO!

[turbguy + 1,543]

3 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Limited to 1/2 the population try 99.9. 

 

Median, not average...

[nsdp + 449]

3 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Limited to 1/2 the population try 99.9. 

 

Fines as 2011 were paid to the US treasury.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

Yet another story with a stong opinion. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/02/ignored-media-dirtbag-joe-biden-says-us-veterans-former-police-officers-fueling-white-supremacism-america/

[nsdp + 449]

49 minutes ago, turbguy said:

More hard evidence, but I can only get the granularity down to one hour increments.

BEFORE and AFTER ROLLING BLACKOUTS ANNOUNCED: Wind change, 250MW, Nat Gas change, 9270 MW.

You tell me what fell first...

First off was Spruce 2 here in San Antonio Sunday afternoon. . CPS "forgot" to deice the coal pile and the boulders from the coal  pile would not go through the pulverizers.  A couple of the WA Parish units had the same problem. 34 GW of NG would not start. Golden spread Electric Coop is the only one keeping all of its units up.  CPS had  972 of coal at Spruce 2 off  and 540 at STNP.  The 22 mw of old reciprocating at Persall still works. That is as old as I am.

[nsdp + 449]

22 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Yet another story with a stong opinion. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/02/ignored-media-dirtbag-joe-biden-says-us-veterans-former-police-officers-fueling-white-supremacism-america/

If you can't impress us with brilliance , I don't think trying to baffle us with  Bullshit will either.

[nsdp + 449]

1 hour ago, turbguy said:

Same graph as mine previously posted.  Nat gas plunged. Before coal, before ST#1, and before average wind. 

WHY? 

I doubt this, but operators INTENTIONALLY removed them from service to get better prices (Enron, anyone?), keeping fingers crossed they could restart and then failed to start for a variety of causes.  I would have to see price charted as well (which could vary by node).

OR

A better "bet", adequate fuel became unavailable.

 

This is what Enron used to do at Huntington Beach.  34 of them went to Club Fed for at least 30 months. Fun case to testify in.  We got the old chairman of the board a t Dynergy too.

[Ecocharger + 1,473]

8 hours ago, NickW said:

 

Hansens 3 scenario models (based on different emission characteristics) against whats actually been measured

I'll let you guess which scenario is closest to what actually happened. 

 

Looks like they ran into a brick wall in 2020....sudden cooling. Dead end.

[surrept33 + 609]

9 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Looks like they ran into a brick wall in 2020....sudden cooling. Dead end.

What? 2020 did not have sudden cooling.

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3061/2020-tied-for-warmest-year-on-record-nasa-analysis-shows/

January 2021 was 7th warmest on record, we had a polar vortex in the middle of a La Nina (where it has been known to intensify):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_vortex

I think the data is to sparse too equate that rapid cooling to climate change, maybe more so with La Nina. 

In August: 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range/polar-vortex-formation-winter-2020-2021-fa/

Edited February 22, 2021 by surrept33

[surrept33 + 609]

16 minutes ago, nsdp said:

If you can't impress us with brilliance , I don't think trying to baffle us with  Bullshit will either.

I assume he meant to link https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/02/581392/

which matches the eia plot, too bad the variability in wind happened a week before any of the storms. Maybe that random consultant on twitter should read his own graph better.

[nsdp + 449]

1 hour ago, surrept33 said:

in addition to this, the building of these types of connections should help in regard to stability control (the city government of NYC is partially financing this one): 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Champlain_Hudson_Power_Express

of course, as you mentioned, 'virtual/synthetic inertia' allows retrofitting AC systems by upgrading the control systems (sometimes this would require upgrading some ancient PLC systems) so that more context aware robust harmonic analysis can be done. It's not just renewables, but the proliferation of solid state electronics everywhere that looks like it may have changed the fundamental physics of the grid (especially transients) in certain ways relative to the "war of the currents". 

Synthetic inertia is  verboten under the newest NERC standard. Little accident in the Balkans and italy put paid to that. ttps://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/the-smarter-grid/zombie-coal-plants-reanimated-to-stabilize-the-grid

Zombie Coal Plants Reanimated to Stabilize the Grid

Old generators prop up voltage, helping grids soak up imported power and renewables

Severe voltage drops, for example, hobble SVCs, whose reactive power output drops at double the rate of line voltage. In contrast, a synchronous condenser’s spinning rotor keeps on pumping out reactive power. It will also generate real power if needed, moderating the drop in AC frequency that would result, say, from shutting down a power plant.

And the condenser’s output can briefly handle several times its rated capacity for tens of seconds as its metal components heat up temporarily—behavior that is not possible for devices relying on comparatively fragile silicon switches. “Because they’re iron and copper, they have a lot of overload capability. You can’t overload silicon significantly,” says Nicholas Miller, a power systems expert with GE Energy Consulting, in Schenectady, N.Y.

The HVDC  link  to Quebec Hyro is great planning.   You just have to have sufficient reactive power to make it work. One of the Lessons learned at the SPS-EPE intertie in Eddy NM in Feb. 2011.

Edited February 22, 2021 by nsdp
forogt HVDC comment.

[turbguy + 1,543]

2 minutes ago, nsdp said:

That does not meet this standard.   If thermal plants don't make at least 5% per minute they are outof complaince. Hydro does not count for N-1. Been doing this since 1971 starting with Houston Lighting and Power.

How long did it require to get back near 60 HZ during that incident?  I would expect a handful of minutes to get back to near 60 (if extra flow IS available).  If a fully capable plant is already pedal-to-the-metal (at or near VWO) or runs into aux equipment issues, you need to take "exceptional actions" to redirect or get more flow.  And I kinda doubt nucs will participate, even though they may be in compliance.

Anyhow, if a plant is running on governor, it will still droop without any further corrective action taken manually, or by AGC systems. If frequency drops by say, 1/2%, the governor will only attempt to restore frequency by increasing flow 10% (whatever that might get you, might be enough, might not).

[nsdp + 449]

12 minutes ago, turbguy said:

How long did it require to get back near 60 HZ during that incident?  I would expect a handful of minutes to get back to near 60 (if extra flow IS available).  If a fully capable plant is already pedal-to-the-metal (at or near VWO) or runs into aux equipment issues, you need to take "exceptional actions" to redirect or get more flow.  And I kinda doubt nucs will participate, even though they may be in compliance.

Anyhow, if a plant is running on governor, it will still droop without any further corrective action taken manually, or by AGC systems. If frequency drops by say, 1/2%, the governor will only attempt to restore frequency by increasing flow 10% (whatever that might get you, might be enough, might not).

Quebec Hydro's system is different/unique since they use St John's Hydro to generate  into HVDC and gas turbines  to supply limited kwh but KVRS for the HVDC terminal and voltage /frequency control. So it was less than 15 seconds.  New wind farms either have their own synchronous condenser or purchase KVR  from  QH.  It is like the  wind farms connected to Bonneville Power.

Edited February 22, 2021 by nsdp