.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Yep. the difference is that with a heat pump in the modern era, we have fully automated the process, we can fire the little old lady who plugs in the heater and the worst possible time and instead let the automated system mindlessly add the resistance heater to the load at the worst possible time. 😀

In the not-too-distant future, we will have automated load shedding for every appliance, all network-connected. The "rotating blackouts" will occur inside the houses and among houses in each neighborhood, and any units that can store energy will be directed to use energy early in anticipation of a nasty peak. This includes refrigerators, freezers, air conditioners, and electric heat. At peak, the network will let everybody get a little uncomfortable instead of letting a lot of people get very uncomfortable.

Sounds very ...............Communal.  Dan, respectfully, I've read enough of your comments to believe your intentions are more or less pure, if not overly hopeful.  Call me skeptical, but I see a lot of room for nefarious manipulation of said systems by those who control the controls.  Go along with the (insert Communal Order here) or you might find your house suffering from a "glitch" that one cannot find anyone to explain sufficiently.

Put enough control of your life into the Commune (a nice quote taken from a Quora commenter)...

"The disadvantages are that there have to be rules, or people argue and then fight or refuse to do work a certain way, or share money. People can’t agree on who will make the rules, or how to interpret them exactly, or how to enforce them, or what to do if someone breaks them."

...and the Commune turns into a dictatorship by necessity, with those who feel "forced" into leadership positions meting out Communal punishments.  My take: No thanks.  I prefer the freedom to provide for my own and I believe humanity will overcome the planet's difficulties; not that the planet is somehow going to stop functioning "someday soon", i.e. within the next 1,000 years.

Of course, that's just my opinion.  You are free to feel otherwise.

[Ecocharger + 1,475]

41 minutes ago, turbguy said:

There is a conflict if grid generation depends on nat gas, and a residence does as well.  If nat gas supply is short, who has priority?

More nuc will probably be the real answer.  It is just so doggone EXPENSIVE to construct (for good reason).  Realize that two-four years of energy in contained in a really small "box".   You don't want to let that "box" get out of control, EVER!

When nuke goes wrong, the results are horrendous. The recent Japanese experience is enough to turn me OFF to nuke for the foreseeable future. It is not a people-friendly answer. The Great Lakes residents near nuclear stations are hit hard in terms of tourist dollars. 

No thanks.

Edited February 26, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,475]

1 hour ago, Paul-S said:

This misinformation isn't STILL going is it? Wind turbines and solar work fine in the Antarctic. What is wrong with Texas that they can't get it to work? Maybe too cheap to winterize. And what about all the thermal plant failures that are the real cause?

 

The issue was already dealt with above...the wind failures created a domino impact into the gas generation sector. Total collapse.

This highlights the problem of an overreliance  on wind as the primary source of electricity generation. Wind is the least reliable and controllable of energy sources, solar is next least reliable.

Edited February 26, 2021 by Ecocharger

[John Foote + 1,135]

41 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Sounds very ...............Communal.  Dan, respectfully, I've read enough of your comments to believe your intentions are more or less pure, if not overly hopeful. 

The so called SMART grid, for the whole, can be much better. To work in the USA, and it can, it needs the ability to opt in, and out, and there has to be financial benefit for the consumers.

Years ago the City of Austin has elements of SMART grid you could opt into. I signed up for my "free" thermostat, tying into my very efficient HVAC system. And such a thing can prevent brownouts and blackouts. 

But after six or so months I removed my free, state of the art thermostat. Why? I didn't mind the AC letting the upstairs get 82 to 84 in the day when I wasn't around or was downstairs. But the dam thing would cycle on and turn the house into an icebox at 3am, helping to keep a load on the grid.

I always had a manual option override. But went to my own programmable thermostat.

The Texas power generation industry knew of the weatherization risks. 1 cent a KW is the estimated cost. For my place, $2 a month. I like nuclear, but that was the biggest single underperformer, and yes, it had nothing to do with the nuke side of things, but that is irrelevant, every system has vulnerabilities.

Some refineries in Texas pro-actively shut down because of the weather. The Oil and Gas industry knew this would happen. The power people too though they probably believed they could rolling blackout and best cased power production instead of likely and didn't anticipate people being out for three days or more. Running around playing info-games after the fact is pretty silly. The source of the generation is not the issue. Just in a market based environment, which I prefer, you need the right minimums to be able to play in the game. 

And as individuals we can have/should a plan B. Small generation, excellent personal weatherization and you should have a few days of food and liquids in your house. I say liquids because you don't need just water to hydrate. I might have tapped into my beer/wine/spirit collection while cozied up to the fireplace. Most of us who did time overseas should have retained some "go bag" mentality.  Personally I never lost power though the having to boil water impacted me. First I used up the standard stash. Live close to regional hospital and fire station, you part of the grid doesn't go down much. These are conscious decisions on my part, but I do think the State of Texas could do better. Always, we can do better.

 

Edited February 26, 2021 by John Foote
word choice

[turbguy + 1,545]

33 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

When nuke goes wrong, the results are horrendous. The recent Japanese experience is enough to turn me OFF to nuke for the foreseeable future. It is not a people-friendly answer. The Great Lakes residents near nuclear stations are hit hard in terms of tourist dollars. 

No thanks.

The Great Lakes States also suffered plenty of the same with dirt burners (worked at PLENTY of them, as well as several Nucs cooled by Lake Erie and Lake Michigan).

Almost tripped one nuc, too!  I have a reputation for that.

[NickW + 2,714]

2 hours ago, Paul-S said:

This misinformation isn't STILL going is it? Wind turbines and solar work fine in the Antarctic. What is wrong with Texas that they can't get it to work? Maybe too cheap to winterize. And what about all the thermal plant failures that are the real cause?

 

They need to let the Europeans in to run their network properly. 

😛

[NickW + 2,714]

43 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

The issue was already dealt with above...the wind failures created a domino impact into the gas generation sector. Total collapse.

This highlights the problem of an overreliance  on wind as the primary source of electricity generation. Wind is the least reliable and controllable of energy sources, solar is next least reliable.

Next you'll be blaming pop Joe's roof top solar. 😀

Wind - ERCOT expected 6GW and got 4GW

Gas /  Coal - ERCOT expected 60GW and got 30GW. 

[NickW + 2,714]

38 minutes ago, John Foote said:

The so called SMART grid, for the whole, can be much better. To work in the USA, and it can, it needs the ability to opt in, and out, and there has to be financial benefit for the consumers.

Years ago the City of Austin has elements of SMART grid you could opt into. I signed up for my "free" thermostat, tying into my very efficient HVAC system. And such a thing can prevent brownouts and blackouts. 

But after six or so months I removed my free, state of the art thermostat. Why? I didn't mind the AC letting the upstairs get 82 to 84 in the day when I wasn't around or was downstairs. But the dam thing would cycle on and turn the house into an icebox at 3am, helping to keep a load on the grid.

I always had a manual option override. But went to my own programmable thermostat.

The Texas power generation industry knew of the weatherization risks. 1 cent a KW is the estimated cost. For my place, $2 a month. I like nuclear, but that was the biggest single underperformer, and yes, it had nothing to do with the nuke side of things, but that is irrelevant, every system has vulnerabilities.

Some refineries in Texas pro-actively shut down because of the weather. The Oil and Gas industry knew this would happen. The power people too though they probably believed they could rolling blackout and best cased power production instead of likely and didn't anticipate people being out for three days or more. Running around playing info-games after the fact is pretty silly. The source of the generation is not the issue. Just in a market based environment, which I prefer, you need the right minimums to be able to play in the game. 

And as individuals we can have/should a plan B. Small generation, excellent personal weatherization and you should have a few days of food and liquids in your house. I say liquids because you don't need just water to hydrate. I might have tapped into my beer/wine/spirit collection while cozied up to the fireplace. Most of us who did time overseas should have retained some "go bag" mentality.  Personally I never lost power though the having to boil water impacted me. First I used up the standard stash. Live close to regional hospital and fire station, you part of the grid doesn't go down much. These are conscious decisions on my part, but I do think the State of Texas could do better. Always, we can do better.

 

I glad you said this. 

I pointed out earlier in this thread that the 'evil' Sierra club had been saying 2018 that Texas had loads of scope for efficiency improvements which would have built in a certain degree of protection and shaved demand off peak load. 

Just got shouted down. Apparently the whole of Texas believed winter had been cancelled - the climate brigade had told them 😀

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

2 minutes ago, NickW said:

Next you'll be blaming pop Joe's roof top solar. 😀

Wind - ERCOT expected 6GW and got 4GW

Gas /  Coal - ERCOT expected 60GW and got 30GW. 

Debunked, multiple times yet you persist? The entire grid output "expected" by your logic at the time was 60GW from every generating source including renewables and solar by that "projection" which was a farce. You can't have it both ways, I produced the hour by hour spreadsheet that proves my point. You just keep repeating debunked narratives. You're better than that, aren't you? 

[waltz + 140]

51 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

When nuke goes wrong, the results are horrendous. The recent Japanese experience is enough to turn me OFF to nuke for the foreseeable future. It is not a people-friendly answer. The Great Lakes residents near nuclear stations are hit hard in terms of tourist dollars. 

No thanks.

As someone who lives just outside of a Great Lake city, Chicago, I can assure you nuclear is not the problem.  We are averaging a freeway shooting in less than every 48hrs. year to date, over 200 carjackings ytd along with our normal nationally known level of shootings.  All this with over 48” of snow in the same time frame.  
 

Tell me about the problems with nuclear again.

     waltz 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

1 hour ago, Dan Warnick said:

Sounds very ...............Communal.  Dan, respectfully, I've read enough of your comments to believe your intentions are more or less pure, if not overly hopeful.  Call me skeptical, but I see a lot of room for nefarious manipulation of said systems by those who control the controls.  Go along with the (insert Communal Order here) or you might find your house suffering from a "glitch" that one cannot find anyone to explain sufficiently.

Put enough control of your life into the Commune (a nice quote taken from a Quora commenter)...

"The disadvantages are that there have to be rules, or people argue and then fight or refuse to do work a certain way, or share money. People can’t agree on who will make the rules, or how to interpret them exactly, or how to enforce them, or what to do if someone breaks them."

...and the Commune turns into a dictatorship by necessity, with those who feel "forced" into leadership positions meting out Communal punishments.  My take: No thanks.  I prefer the freedom to provide for my own and I believe humanity will overcome the planet's difficulties; not that the planet is somehow going to stop functioning "someday soon", i.e. within the next 1,000 years.

Of course, that's just my opinion.  You are free to feel otherwise.

Didn't they make a movie about this? 

https://youtu.be/ZKPFC8DA9_8

[NickW + 2,714]

Just now, Ward Smith said:

Debunked, multiple times yet you persist? The entire grid output "expected" by your logic at the time was 60GW from every generating source including renewables and solar by that "projection" which was a farce. You can't have it both ways, I produced the hour by hour spreadsheet that proves my point. You just keep repeating debunked narratives. You're better than that, aren't you? 

Lets apply the logic spanner to the nuts of this one

• Everyone knows wind and solar is intermittent (except some people on here) 
• So did ERCOT which is why they anticipated no solar and very limited wind availability during this period
• I appreciate demand exceeded total generating availability but if all or most of that gas plant had remained operable ERCOT could have got through this with rolling rotating power cuts but 30GW down it was a hopeless task. 
• The fact is unreliable gas plant and poor planning dumped Texas in this poo pot.
• The reality is you should be thanking wind and encouraging the construction of more - its freed up huge amounts of gas for the USA's LNG market. Texan wind alone has freed up about 20% of the USA's feed gas for LNG plants. 

Looking fwd:

• ERCOT should contract in all those emergency gen sets as I previously suggested on a short term operating reserve basis
• Weatherize your CCGT plant. Winter hasn't been cancelled
• Consider whether CCGT should be dual fuel (hold a couple of days worth of distillate) 
• Consider whether CCGT should be required to hold a day or twos gas in storage. 
• Get a proper household weatherisation program going
• Build some interconnections
• Ask Uncle Elon for a big battery

 

 

[Refman + 207]

Texas natural gas production plunged 45% during recent cold snap

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46896

 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

40 minutes ago, NickW said:

I pointed out earlier in this thread that the 'evil' Sierra club had been saying 2018 that Texas had loads of scope for efficiency improvements which would have built in a certain degree of protection and shaved demand off peak load. 

Just got shouted down. Apparently the whole of Texas believed winter had been cancelled - the climate brigade had told them 😀

I'm not wishing you any ill will, but I am telling you that at some point the United Kingdom will suffer mightily from some mishap--natural or manmade. At such time, I pray that God gives me the grace not to make fun of you. 

I have known several English, mostly nice, but I must say that you are proving to be the most despicable of them all. I really can't tell if you're of a depraved lot, or if you perceive damage by a Texan, or if you are just . . . stupid. 

It's certainly one of the above. 

It seems not to have sunk in that a lot of Texans died helping your country win WWI and WWII, or that we--our countries--have routinely shared joy in victory and tears in defeat. You seem to be lacking the milk of human kindness. You seem rather like the bully in my school, who laughed when one of us fell and skinned his shins. 

I've certainly had enough of you. You are almost too ill-mannered and unclean to come onto a polite site. 

Adios. And please, remember the Alamo!

[turbguy + 1,545]

ALL of you are making GUESSES about the root causes of ERCOT's events.

To blame one source of generation, without fact, without proof, without detailed time-line of all sequential events makes ZERO sense.

I have SHOWN a ERCOT-published timeline after they declared the EEA Level 3 emergency.

You can also go back into ERCOT's Operation Log and see other events.

From facts I have seen:

Feb 15 2021 01:25:40 CST EEA Level 3 With Firm Load Shed: At 01:20, Rotating outages are in progress to maintain frequency. ERCOT is asking consumers and businesses to reduce electricity use. Emergency Notice Active Feb 15 2021 01:12:06 CST EEA Level 2: At 01:07, ERCOT at EEA 2 - Reserves below 1, 750 MW. Load resources are being deployed. There may be a need to implement rotating outages. ERCOT is urging consumers and businesses to reduce electricity usage. Emergency Notice Active Feb 15 2021 00:43:44 CST No sudden loss of generation greater than 450 MW occurred on February 14, 2021. Operational Information Active Feb 15 2021 00:17:45 CST EEA Level 1: At 00:15, ERCOT at EEA 1 - Reserves below 2, 300 MW. No rotating outages at this time.

"Bad stuff" was happening at a fast pace. It got so bad, so fast, they could not even keep their log updated!

As time when on, more and more fossil generation units kept tripping.

• Could it be Wind?  Maybe.
• Could it be accelerated demand growth. Maybe
• Could it be loss of nat gas fuel?  Maybe
• Could it be frozen plant instrumentation? Maybe
• Could it be sunspots?  Maybe
• Could it be CHINA? Maybe
• Could it be ANTIFA? maybe

Until it is revealed WHY the cascading loss of fossil generation occurred, after the EEA Level 3 was declared, at every site, in detail, all of us are guessing.

It is kinda fun to guess, though, isn't it?

Edited February 26, 2021 by turbguy

[Richard D + 86]

In the London (UK) area we used to have a number of small,open-cycle gas turbine power stations for peaking duty. I was startled to be near one on a frosty morning and was startled when it suddenly started up. I quickly moved away from the cloud of black smoke it was emitting. The site of the power station is now a car park.

A more sophisticated gas turbine power station was suggested by Italians. See internet;'Thermodynamic analysis of hydraulic air compressor-gas turbine power plants. A hydraulic air compressor at Ragged Chutes in Canada was claimed to be 82% efficient. The Italians suggested recovering the waste heat of the gas turbine to heat the compressed air feed (heat of compression removed by the falling water flow). For peaking duties,this arrangement would mean fast start-up and eliminate the 30% efficient steam cycle of the standard Combine Cycle Gas Turbine power station. A compressed-air storage cavern combined with a heat-recuperating open-cycle gas turbine could be a quick build for Texas.

[NickW + 2,714]

29 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

I'm not wishing you any ill will, but I am telling you that at some point the United Kingdom will suffer mightily from some mishap--natural or manmade. At such time, I pray that God gives me the grace not to make fun of you. 

I have known several English, mostly nice, but I must say that you are proving to be the most despicable of them all. I really can't tell if you're of a depraved lot, or if you perceive damage by a Texan, or if you are just . . . stupid. 

It's certainly one of the above. 

It seems not to have sunk in that a lot of Texans died helping your country win WWI and WWII, or that we--our countries--have routinely shared joy in victory and tears in defeat. You seem to be lacking the milk of human kindness. You seem rather like the bully in my school, who laughed when one of us fell and skinned his shins. 

I've certainly had enough of you. You are almost too ill-mannered and unclean to come onto a polite site. 

Adios. And please, remember the Alamo!

I'm not making fun of Texans - I'm taking the P1ss out pf people on here claiming that this was caused because people believed winter was cancelled and it was all the greenies fault. 

I feel sorry for the people affected by this. However to prevent a problem happening again you need to address the core issues. 

[NickW + 2,714]

1 minute ago, Richard D said:

In the London (UK) area we used to have a number of small,open-cycle gas turbine power stations for peaking duty. I was startled to be near one on a frosty morning and was startled when it suddenly started up. I quickly moved away from the cloud of black smoke it was emitting. The site of the power station is now a car park.

A more sophisticated gas turbine power station was suggested by Italians. See internet;'Thermodynamic analysis of hydraulic air compressor-gas turbine power plants. A hydraulic air compressor at Ragged Chutes in Canada was claimed to be 82% efficient. The Italians suggested recovering the waste heat of the gas turbine to heat the compressed air feed (heat of compression removed by the falling water flow). For peaking duties,this arrangement would mean fast start-up and eliminate the 30% efficient steam cycle of the standard Combine Cycle Gas Turbine power station. A compressed-air storage cavern combined with a heat-recuperating open-cycle gas turbine could be a quick build for Texas.

Much of that has been replaced by generators contracted in under STOR arrangements although there is still about 1GW of OCGT, often at bigger plants that is available. My company has 2MW of diesel Gensets that partake in this scheme. We also about 700Kw of data centre cooling that can be switched off for a couple of hours if NG need to load shed. 

National Grid Reserve Service - Wikipedia

 

 

[turbguy + 1,545]

33 minutes ago, Richard D said:

In the London (UK) area we used to have a number of small,open-cycle gas turbine power stations for peaking duty. I was startled to be near one on a frosty morning and was startled when it suddenly started up. I quickly moved away from the cloud of black smoke it was emitting. The site of the power station is now a car park.

A more sophisticated gas turbine power station was suggested by Italians. See internet;'Thermodynamic analysis of hydraulic air compressor-gas turbine power plants. A hydraulic air compressor at Ragged Chutes in Canada was claimed to be 82% efficient. The Italians suggested recovering the waste heat of the gas turbine to heat the compressed air feed (heat of compression removed by the falling water flow). For peaking duties,this arrangement would mean fast start-up and eliminate the 30% efficient steam cycle of the standard Combine Cycle Gas Turbine power station. A compressed-air storage cavern combined with a heat-recuperating open-cycle gas turbine could be a quick build for Texas.

Clever, but why not just install a small hydro generator? Forget burning anything.

I think there's a hydro power station there already?

Edited February 26, 2021 by turbguy

[Boat + 1,324]

38 minutes ago, Refman said:

Texas natural gas production plunged 45% during recent cold snap

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46896

 

Wow Republicans who counted votes as fraud now count wind failure. And as usual, couldn’t be any more wrong. How can any one group commit to a false narrative and when the truth comes out, still cling to that narrative. 
By God I don’t care if more natural gas was lost it was winds fault. And I don’t want anyone out there telling Texas how to winterize energy. That’s a regulation and by God if we add one we have to kill three. We’re serious about regulation.

Were not going to prepare for storms now or in the future because we’re gonna ride-em. We’re not going to fix a 50 state voting system, we’re gonna claim voter fraud instead. Now here in Texas we will sue your ass to change the outcome of how other states voted but don’t mess with how we vote. 

[NickW + 2,714]

51 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

I'm not wishing you any ill will, but I am telling you that at some point the United Kingdom will suffer mightily from some mishap--natural or manmade. At such time, I pray that God gives me the grace not to make fun of you. 

I suspect we will have an event one day too. You are quite correct in that analysis. I don't intend on moving again so have been doing my home prep for my family

Thats why in terms of our home:

• I am in the process of super insulating it. Done the roof and lower walls. This year the upper cladding is coming off and 70mm of insulation going in. I may externally insulate our extension with 100mm PIR. 
• Have a large solar water heating system (I can take off grid if need be)
• 170 ah deep cycle batteries (from yacht but come home for winter) plus a controller and 1000W 240v inverter
• I have 1.5KW of solar panels. Plan to stick another 2 KW in when we go EV
• Window replace will be triple glazing in next 3-4 years
• I may pull out our gas fire and stick a wood inset stove in
• Have a small propane gas stove from my yacht, couple of spirit stoves, a rocket stove (runs on wood / coal), small paraffin lamp. 
• Good supply of sleeping bags, duvets, LED lamps, rechargeable batteries, candles
• No fire arms but do have a good PCP airgun and a cross bow😁

If that event doesn't come those measures provide a guaranteed tax free annual return in terms of reduced gas and electric bills. 

 

[NickW + 2,714]

20 minutes ago, turbguy said:

Clever, but why not just install a small hydro generator? Forget burning anything.

The Uk is not exactly Hydro territory. Most is in Scotland and wales. The largest Hydro Unit in England is 5.5MW and thats up near the Scottish border. 

[turbguy + 1,545]

1 minute ago, NickW said:

The Uk is not exactly Hydro territory. Most is in Scotland and wales. The largest Hydro Unit in England is 5.5MW and thats up near the Scottish border. 

My response was meant for locations where compressing air with falling water are practical.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 hours ago, turbguy said:

The Great Lakes States also suffered plenty of the same with dirt burners (worked at PLENTY of them, as well as several Nucs cooled by Lake Erie and Lake Michigan).

Almost tripped one nuc, too!  I have a reputation for that.

Er, @turbguy, first name Homer?   

[turbguy + 1,545]

4 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Er, @turbguy, first name Homer?   

Doh!

Plant management now insists on TWO escorts with me (one with a sidearm)!

Edited February 26, 2021 by turbguy