.

[turbguy + 1,540]

7 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

The 40 degrees number is roughly where a heat pump is the same running cost as a gas furnace. An air-source heat pump continues to be more efficient than a resistance electric heater down to maybe 20 degrees outside air. The problem is that it is not cost-effective to have a big enough heat pump in Texas to heat the house on those very rare coldest days, so you install a smaller heat pump and add "supplemental" resistance heater coils. These kick in when the too-small heat pump cannot keep the house warm, which may very well be at 40 degrees F. Somewhere down around 20 degrees F, the main heat pump is no longer saving any money over using resistance heat, and the system may be designed to shift over completely to resistance heat.

And if that heat pump ices up?  Yes, that happens, all too frequently.  Then the compressor cycles into a closed loop, melts the ice, and "explodes" into a volcano of steam/water vapor.  Been there, seen that.

Again, I don't know the fraction of homes that use heat pumps.  Could be large, could be small.  That said, every little bit hurts.

Edited February 25, 2021 by turbguy

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

3 minutes ago, turbguy said:

And if that heat pump ices up?  Yes, that happens, all too frequently.  Then the compressor cycles into a closed loop, melts the ice, and "explodes" into a volcano of steam/water vapor.  Been there, seen that.

Oh, yes. An lots of other "interesting" failure modes. However, I was commenting on the expected electricity demand as the temperature falls, since that is what would have had an impact on the ERCOT grid. We would expect te demand vs. temperature curve to steepen once when the resistance heat kick in, and then steepen again when the heat pump gives up and the whole load shifts to resistance. Since each house will have different crossovers, the grid sees a more or less continuously-increasing average curve.

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

13 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Oh, yes. An lots of other "interesting" failure modes. However, I was commenting on the expected electricity demand as the temperature falls, since that is what would have had an impact on the ERCOT grid. We would expect te demand vs. temperature curve to steepen once when the resistance heat kick in, and then steepen again when the heat pump gives up and the whole load shifts to resistance. Since each house will have different crossovers, the grid sees a more or less continuously-increasing average curve.

 

Now that temperature has returned to "normal" 74 degrees, the power demand is less than 35GW for ERCOT. That's roughly 90% of the state (75% of the customers). El Paso for instance is not part of ERCOT and had minimal issues. Food for thought 

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

6 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Now that temperature has returned to "normal" 74 degrees, the power demand is less than 35GW for ERCOT. That's roughly 90% of the state (75% of the customers). El Paso for instance is not part of ERCOT and had minimal issues. Food for thought 

Yes, there was a story about El Paso earlier this week. El Paso got hit in 2011, and based on that they winterized their generators, so not problem this time.

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,239]

4 hours ago, Boat said:

So it the turbine problem turns out to be weatherization which was a choice/decision will you retract the silly idea turbines won’t work in the cold?

The damn windmills were frozen with an inch+ ice. They failed the ice test!!!

[turbguy + 1,540]

1 hour ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

The damn windmills were frozen with an inch+ ice. They failed the ice test!!!

If icing deposition was that severe (and I don't have any reason to believe it wasn't), yup, they are f*cked until it "leaves".

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,239]

2 minutes ago, turbguy said:

If icing deposition was that severe (and I don't have any reason to believe it wasn't), yup, they are f*cked until it "leaves".

Guaranteed there was at least that much, from Lubbock all the way down to Ft. Stockton. I couldn't see the blades from the freezing fog for 3 days. My pickup truck had no less than inch on the north side of the truck and the south about half inch. 

The attached photos are ground level, the higher up the thicker the fog.

[turbguy + 1,540]

2 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

Guaranteed there was at least that much, from Lubbock all the way down to Ft. Stockton. I couldn't see the blades from the freezing fog for 3 days. My pickup truck had no less than inch on the north side of the truck and the south about half inch. 

The attached photos are ground level, the higher up the thicker the fog.

They have these really neat things called "garages"...

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,239]

1 minute ago, turbguy said:

They have these really neat things called "garages"...

Hill-Top RV park 1 mile west of Ft. Stockton on the service road. This photo was few days before the storm. Lower part of photo you can see interstate 10 and the mountains are about 35 miles west. 

 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

50 minutes ago, turbguy said:

They have these really neat things called "garages"...

Heated garages you...HEATHEN. 

 

[turbguy + 1,540]

24 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Heated garages you...HEATHEN. 

 

Wait...there such a thing as UNHEATED garages?

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

12 hours ago, Richard D said:

A  little while ago I suggested,on this site,that vertical axis wind turbines might be preferable. That was met with abuse. After this debacle,I would point out that it seems possible to box in the bearings of this type of turbine. As the generator is at ground level,it is also easy to reach with anti-freeze.

1. VAWT's suck for numerous reasons.

• Why?  Efficiency sucks
• Why? RPM varies with the wind velocity and is impossible to keep constant therefore SUCKS!
• Why?  Area collected/cost sucks
• Why? Gusty wind conditions down low = HOrrible wear on bearings
• Why? Area collected main bearing size is absolutely MONSTOROUS and SUCKS
• Why? Reliability sucks due to high dynamic loads, stress cyclic load off/on depending on which side of rotation and therefore SUCKS!~!@!~#$%*)(@)$)#@!)#@#!@~!

Who gives a damn about easier so called "maintenance" on the ground... of which there is NO maintenance of those parts to begin with.  Great, they are on the ground and easier.  The maintenance costs are up in the air on the blades themselves, not changing the gear oil. 

[turbguy + 1,540]

A little more info about South Texas Unit #1's trip.  It would appear to be because of an impulse line freeze-up to flow instrumentation, rather than a Rx feedpump trip (that pump is inside a temp controlled area).  Makes sense, but take it with a grain of salt...

"As freezing temperatures struck Texas, a glitch at one of two reactors at a South Texas nuclear plant, which serves 2 million homes, triggered a shutdown. The cause: Sensing lines connected to the plant’s water pumps had frozen, said Victor Dricks, a spokesman for the federal Nuclear Regulatory Agency".

Beleive me when I say that particular problem, with a full and deep review of any other "single point failures" to follow, WILL be addressed.  It will probably take several weeks of paperwork to get it heat traced.

 

BTW, did you know that reactor containment buildings are "air conditioned".  Yup, a boiler room, with AC.

Edited February 26, 2021 by turbguy

[Richard D + 86]

12 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Oh, yes. An lots of other "interesting" failure modes. However, I was commenting on the expected electricity demand as the temperature falls, since that is what would have had an impact on the ERCOT grid. We would expect te demand vs. temperature curve to steepen once when the resistance heat kick in, and then steepen again when the heat pump gives up and the whole load shifts to resistance. Since each house will have different crossovers, the grid sees a more or less continuously-increasing average curve.

 

Interesting point. In the UK,you can buy a Chinese-made electric convector heater for £30. If a little old lady puts that on a couple of times a year then we have the crazy situation where generators costing £30,000 are standing idle for the rest of the year. I believe that,in France,you have to specify how much maximum load you are going to put on the system. You could,at a pinch,compensate for the heater power demand by switching off the water heater. I have an over-sized hot tank at 60 Celsius which is heated by cheaper night-time electricity (used to cost half,but is now 60% plus higher standing charge).

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

4 hours ago, Richard D said:

Interesting point. In the UK,you can buy a Chinese-made electric convector heater for £30. If a little old lady puts that on a couple of times a year then we have the crazy situation where generators costing £30,000 are standing idle for the rest of the year. I believe that,in France,you have to specify how much maximum load you are going to put on the system. You could,at a pinch,compensate for the heater power demand by switching off the water heater. I have an over-sized hot tank at 60 Celsius which is heated by cheaper night-time electricity (used to cost half,but is now 60% plus higher standing charge).

Yep. the difference is that with a heat pump in the modern era, we have fully automated the process, we can fire the little old lady who plugs in the heater and the worst possible time and instead let the automated system mindlessly add the resistance heater to the load at the worst possible time. 😀

In the not-too-distant future, we will have automated load shedding for every appliance, all network-connected. The "rotating blackouts" will occur inside the houses and among houses in each neighborhood, and any units that can store energy will be directed to use energy early in anticipation of a nasty peak. This includes refrigerators, freezers, air conditioners, and electric heat. At peak, the network will let everybody get a little uncomfortable instead of letting a lot of people get very uncomfortable.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

32 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Yep. the difference is that with a heat pump in the modern era, we have fully automated the process, we can fire the little old lady who plugs in the heater and the worst possible time and instead let the automated system mindlessly add the resistance heater to the load at the worst possible time. 😀

In the not-too-distant future, we will have automated load shedding for every appliance, all network-connected. The "rotating blackouts" will occur inside the houses and among houses in each neighborhood, and any units that can store energy will be directed to use energy early in anticipation of a nasty peak. This includes refrigerators, freezers, air conditioners, and electric heat. At peak, the network will let everybody get a little uncomfortable instead of letting a lot of people get very uncomfortable.

That "not too distant future" will punish those who bought the latest and greatest (and most expensive appliances) while letting those with the oldest and least energy efficient appliances slide. I bought a water heater for a duplex I own. Did the responsible thing and purchased the model that allowed "load shedding". Found out that the utility kept sending out spurious and unnecessary signals to turn it off. Ticking off the tenants, who correctly called to have their hot water "fixed". So I disabled the circuit and am out about $400 more than if I'd bought the cheap one. But yeah, someday. I'm still waiting for the flying cars I was promised as a child too. 

[Richard D + 86]

51 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Yep. the difference is that with a heat pump in the modern era, we have fully automated the process, we can fire the little old lady who plugs in the heater and the worst possible time and instead let the automated system mindlessly add the resistance heater to the load at the worst possible time. 😀

In the not-too-distant future, we will have automated load shedding for every appliance, all network-connected. The "rotating blackouts" will occur inside the houses and among houses in each neighborhood, and any units that can store energy will be directed to use energy early in anticipation of a nasty peak. This includes refrigerators, freezers, air conditioners, and electric heat. At peak, the network will let everybody get a little uncomfortable instead of letting a lot of people get very uncomfortable.

In the UK we already have 'Smart Meters' which can do just that. They are marketed by telling the mugs that they will be able to monitor how much power they are currently using. Personally,I would rather watch paint drying. Come to think of it,that is about as interesting as watching the endless repeats being shown on British TV during lockdown.

[Paul-S + 8]

This misinformation isn't STILL going is it? Wind turbines and solar work fine in the Antarctic. What is wrong with Texas that they can't get it to work? Maybe too cheap to winterize. And what about all the thermal plant failures that are the real cause?

 

Edited February 26, 2021 by Paul-S
Extra info.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

4 minutes ago, Paul-S said:

This misinformation isn't STILL going is it? Wind turbines and solar work fine in the Antarctic. What is wrong with Texas that they can't get 

Absolutely nothing. 

[Robert Ziegler + 121]

What i have learned form this can be summed up very simply. Natural Gas at the house allows you to survive. You can run a generator on it, and you can heat your house with it. To heat a house with electricity, where you have lost 70% of the energy until it gets there is just IDIOTIC. Those people with electric resistance heaters actually deprived the people with a gas furnace and no generator form their ability to heat their house, if they had not small generator for the fan. A state like Texas should have an infrastructure guarantee: Every dwelling gets a gas connection.

[Paul-S + 8]

Insulate properly and have a supplemental source for the rare time extra heat is needed, and an air source heat pump is more economical. I live in Canada with occasional dips to -30C and my utility bill which is for electricity only as I have no gas, averaged over the year is $120 CDN or about $90 U.S. a month. All my power needs including heating and cooling. Oh, and at -30C our wind turbines worked fine.

 

 

Edited February 26, 2021 by Paul-S

[turbguy + 1,540]

2 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Yep. the difference is that with a heat pump in the modern era, we have fully automated the process, we can fire the little old lady who plugs in the heater and the worst possible time and instead let the automated system mindlessly add the resistance heater to the load at the worst possible time. 😀

In the not-too-distant future, we will have automated load shedding for every appliance, all network-connected. The "rotating blackouts" will occur inside the houses and among houses in each neighborhood, and any units that can store energy will be directed to use energy early in anticipation of a nasty peak. This includes refrigerators, freezers, air conditioners, and electric heat. At peak, the network will let everybody get a little uncomfortable instead of letting a lot of people get very uncomfortable.

That action is called "Demand Response".  With smart meters, the "grid" can turn off (and on) your entire service remotely. Those make FAR more sense (IMO) to enable "rotating blackouts" than the current method of turning entire distribution circuits on and off.

Smart meters are not tthat much more expensive that a non-smart meter.  AND they let the utility read it remotely, as well.  That's a win-win for the utility if I ever saw one.

Edited February 26, 2021 by turbguy

[turbguy + 1,540]

33 minutes ago, Paul-S said:

Insulate properly and have a supplemental source for the rare time extra heat is needed, and an air source heat pump is more economical. I live in Canada with occasional dips to -30C and my utility bill which is for electricity only as I have no gas, averaged over the year is $120 CDN or about $90 U.S. a month. All my power needs including heating and cooling. Oh, and at -30C our wind turbines worked fine.

 

 

A wind turbine will work just fine in the cold.  It is ICE ACCUMULATION that degrades performance, not cold temperatures.  Ice accumulation requires a specific range of conditions, only one of which is ambient air temperature.

Air source heat pumps don't pump much heat if the air source is below freezing.  Even when they do have decent conditions, they run a long time, as the interior coils can never match a gas furnace's discharge temperature (in my experience).

Edited February 26, 2021 by turbguy

[turbguy + 1,540]

40 minutes ago, Robert Ziegler said:

What i have learned form this can be summed up very simply. Natural Gas at the house allows you to survive. You can run a generator on it, and you can heat your house with it. To heat a house with electricity, where you have lost 70% of the energy until it gets there is just IDIOTIC. Those people with electric resistance heaters actually deprived the people with a gas furnace and no generator form their ability to heat their house, if they had not small generator for the fan. A state like Texas should have an infrastructure guarantee: Every dwelling gets a gas connection.

There is a conflict if grid generation depends on nat gas, and a residence does as well.  If nat gas supply is short, who has priority?

More nuc will probably be the real answer.  It is just so doggone EXPENSIVE to construct (for good reason).  Realize that two-four years of energy in contained in a really small "box".   You don't want to let that "box" get out of control, EVER!

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

43 minutes ago, Paul-S said:

All my power needs including heating and cooling. Oh, and at -30C our wind turbines worked fine.

Good for you!

Stay up there. 

Please.