.

[NickW + 2,714]

12 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

^

Would this be the Michael Webber who was trained as a mechanical engineer and is co-director of the Clean Energy Incubator Program at the University of Texas?

Gosh, I would expect a guy like that to offer a totally unbiased opinion on the root of the problem. 

His usual outlets are: The New York Times, The San Francisco Chronicle, USA Today, The Daily Telegraph--all known for their conservative bent, of course. 

Puh-leese!

But we accept sh1te like that article Ward  posted - hook line and sinker eh? 😀

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

1 hour ago, NickW said:

This article makes no mention of outturn forecasting which all transmission operators should be undertaking for weeks / months ahead of schedule to take account for factors which remove or reduce the output of generating sets. 

• Traditionally this would account for conventional plant taken out of use for for maintenance 
• It also builds in factors such as reduced output from thermal plant in high summer months 
• More recently it builds in expected outputs from intermittent resources such as wind and solar. 

As Dan states ERCOT expected no more than 6000MW from wind and in the event got 4000MW. Therefore the outturn forecast would never have built in more than 6000MW from wind sources and probably shaved a % off of that for variability. 

 

One thing I'll say for you and Dan. You go back to your old saws faster than a wino reaches for a bottle. Yes, there's such thing as forecasting and no it is not the Gospel. How many times must I tell you that? You can go back through ERCOT forecasts for decades and find out they're not worth the paper they're printed on. They're just SWAG, scientific wild assed guesses. In point of fact, when wind is such a massive contributor to the mix, everything else shuts down and gets out of the way. I've explained this multiple times, can't you try to understand once? 

In every place not named Texas wind gets a capacity bonus. Functionally, what that means is wind gets credit for its nameplate capacity (which it never achieves) and customers pay the difference, meaning before wind I paid 6 cents a kwh but now pay 12. That "extra" money goes to pay for standby capacity to make up for wind being the laggard it is. Texas doesn't have a "capacity market". If I feel like it I'll link to articles that explain this in detail. People who lack the ability to understand something often are found to have a paycheck associated with that ignorance. Vice versa applies in spades. Very wealthy people would be very much wealthier if they can force through a capacity market in Texas. The only people hurt will be all those consumers, and only a rube cares about them.

You keep Bragging on England I think people need to click on the link to see what's really going on there with wind and how this plays out. 

Edited March 12, 2021 by Ward Smith
Added link

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

Why Texas doesn't have a capacity market.

Understand precisely what a capacity market is. It's a construct where forecasts are made years in advance (SWAG) and ratepayers get to pay through the nose for power that might never get delivered, all for an extra 2% reliability. 

[turbguy + 1,540]

28 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Why Texas doesn't have a capacity market.

Understand precisely what a capacity market is. It's a construct where forecasts are made years in advance (SWAG) and ratepayers get to pay through the nose for power that might never get delivered, all for an extra 2% reliability. 

Thanx for clarifying my prior questions concerning Texas' market.

A SWAG is better than no SWAG.

If you want reliability, you gotta pay for it.

 

Edited March 12, 2021 by turbguy

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

Just now, turbguy said:

A SWAG is better than no SWAG.

If you want reliability, you gotta pay for it.

How much better? Based on "SWAG's" from the AGW religionists, Texas should never have seen single digit temperatures. Didn't Texas get the memo? The whole world has a fever! That is, until you look closely and discover they've been lying, cooking the books, hiding data and censoring dissent. We shouldn't be surprised they used the exact same techniques this election, they've been getting away with it so long. 

Then we get to "reliability". I'm paying double what my power used to cost to compensate for the unreliability injected into the system from wind power in Washington State. Even though the state got 80% of its power from hydro, that wasn't considered "renewable". Places like Quebec pay 5 times what they used to for the exact same reason. This has nothing to do with reliability, this is just a secret tax on the rubes and it impacts the poor most of all. Congrats feel good greenies, you've done it again. 

[turbguy + 1,540]

45 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

How much better? Based on "SWAG's" from the AGW religionists, Texas should never have seen single digit temperatures. Didn't Texas get the memo? The whole world has a fever! That is, until you look closely and discover they've been lying, cooking the books, hiding data and censoring dissent. We shouldn't be surprised they used the exact same techniques this election, they've been getting away with it so long. 

Then we get to "reliability". I'm paying double what my power used to cost to compensate for the unreliability injected into the system from wind power in Washington State. Even though the state got 80% of its power from hydro, that wasn't considered "renewable". Places like Quebec pay 5 times what they used to for the exact same reason. This has nothing to do with reliability, this is just a secret tax on the rubes and it impacts the poor most of all. Congrats feel good greenies, you've done it again. 

I you wish to doubt my "evidence" for your "evidence" instead, that's fine.

Residential customers in Washington State pay, what, 25% less than the nation's average $/KWH? Quebec Hydro customers pay even less.  All because you and they are loaded with power sources that are driven by solar energy.

Residential power in Texas is more expensive than yours, as well.

As far as I know, Washington State's "grid" has not had to resort to any rotating outages in quite a while.  Ice storms cause localized outages at the distribution level.

Who do you think paid for all your Hydroelectric infrastructure, anyhow?  Both of us.

WTI's over $65.

If I were in your shoes, I'd be happy.

 

 

 

Edited March 12, 2021 by turbguy

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

One thing I'll say for you and Dan. You go back to your old saws faster than a wino reaches for a bottle. Yes, there's such thing as forecasting and no it is not the Gospel. How many times must I tell you that? You can go back through ERCOT forecasts for decades and find out they're not worth the paper they're printed on. They're just SWAG, scientific wild assed guesses. In point of fact, when wind is such a massive contributor to the mix, everything else shuts down and gets out of the way. I've explained this multiple times, can't you try to understand once? 

Yes, Ward, we are in violent agreement on this point. Wind is a variable source and cannot be depended on for power at any given instant in time, or even for energy in any given week. if you need a certain amount of peak power, you need to have baseline + dispatchable power to meet that peak, and you must count on wind for NONE of it. Wind is only useful to save on gas when the wind is blowing.

YES I understand that wind is a massive contributor when the wind  is blowing, and on a percentage basis, wind+solar can actually reach 100% of the non-baseline demand when the demand is low in spring and fall, causing the entire gas-fires and coal-fired fleet to go idle. In a properly managed system, this saves everybody money. This is not relevant to the February Texas blackouts: Wind was not designed to be a contributor to the grid in February. Those blackouts were caused primarily by freeze-offs of the NG supply and secondarily by NG (and nuclear and coal) failures to winterize.

When wind does by happy chance continue to blow more than you are counting on, you happily keep using the electricity and keep saving NG. This happened in late January, coincident with slightly higher-than predicted temperatures, which allowed wind to provide an unexpectedly high percentage of Texas' electricity. The analyst that wrote your report cherry-picked this single data point as the baseline for his comparison with the datapoint during the crisis just before gas-fired generation collapsed. He then took the absolute numbers, and rather than present them as percentages of provided power, he presented them as percentage changes. If I agree that the results (-93% for wind, +450% for gas-fired) are mathematically correct, will you at least agree that the absolute percentages are correct? ( wind drop from near 100% to less than 7% of wind capacity, gas from about 17% to above 90% of gas-fired capacity). These are the very same numbers either way. I really hope that there is nothing unexpected in the ability of the gas-fired generators to exceed 90% of their capacity: that is what they are designed to do and expected to do. On the other hand, I also really hope that there is nothing unexpected in the fact that sometimes the wind quits blowing.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

Well now finally some clarity, looks like Texas is cowboying UP!. Good for them, perhaps the financial back story will emerge...this could lead to extreme consequences for the environmental community.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Texas-Strikes-Back-At-The-Anti-Fossil-Fuel-Lobby.html

Texas Strikes Back At The Anti-Fossil Fuel Lobby

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

18 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Yes, Ward, we are in violent agreement on this point. Wind is a variable source and cannot be depended on for power at any given instant in time, or even for energy in any given week. if you need a certain amount of peak power, you need to have baseline + dispatchable power to meet that peak, and you must count on wind for NONE of it. Wind is only useful to save on gas when the wind is blowing.

YES I understand that wind is a massive contributor when the wind  is blowing, and on a percentage basis, wind+solar can actually reach 100% of the non-baseline demand when the demand is low in spring and fall, causing the entire gas-fires and coal-fired fleet to go idle. In a properly managed system, this saves everybody money. This is not relevant to the February Texas blackouts: Wind was not designed to be a contributor to the grid in February. Those blackouts were caused primarily by freeze-offs of the NG supply and secondarily by NG (and nuclear and coal) failures to winterize.

When wind does by happy chance continue to blow more than you are counting on, you happily keep using the electricity and keep saving NG. This happened in late January, coincident with slightly higher-than predicted temperatures, which allowed wind to provide an unexpectedly high percentage of Texas' electricity. The analyst that wrote your report cherry-picked this single data point as the baseline for his comparison with the datapoint during the crisis just before gas-fired generation collapsed. He then took the absolute numbers, and rather than present them as percentages of provided power, he presented them as percentage changes. If I agree that the results (-93% for wind, +450% for gas-fired) are mathematically correct, will you at least agree that the absolute percentages are correct? ( wind drop from near 100% to less than 7% of wind capacity, gas from about 17% to above 90% of gas-fired capacity). These are the very same numbers either way. I really hope that there is nothing unexpected in the ability of the gas-fired generators to exceed 90% of their capacity: that is what they are designed to do and expected to do. On the other hand, I also really hope that there is nothing unexpected in the fact that sometimes the wind quits blowing.

Okay, let me see if I have this right: The wind is unreliable, but it can save on gas (which the state is flaring to the tune of $3M/day). To save on gas, and to support this unreliable wind source, the Great State of Texas is supposed to have dozens of natural gas utility plants that cost hundreds of billions sitting idle, waiting for when the wind stops blowing. 

And you're still stuck on "those blackouts were caused primarily by freeze-offs of the NG supply and secondarily by NG failures to winterize."

Holy Mother of God!

[notsonice + 1,255]

1 hour ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Okay, let me see if I have this right: The wind is unreliable, but it can save on gas (which the state is flaring to the tune of $3M/day). To save on gas, and to support this unreliable wind source, the Great State of Texas is supposed to have dozens of natural gas utility plants that cost hundreds of billions sitting idle, waiting for when the wind stops blowing. 

And you're still stuck on "those blackouts were caused primarily by freeze-offs of the NG supply and secondarily by NG failures to winterize."

Holy Mother of God!

those blackouts were caused primarily by freeze-offs of the NG supply and secondarily by NG failures to winterize?  now you got it, God you are slow PS you are a Texan?  you where in Texas when this all occured? or where you also in Cancun with Ted ?

Edited March 12, 2021 by notsonice

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

19 minutes ago, notsonice said:

those blackouts were caused primarily by freeze-offs of the NG supply and secondarily by NG failures to winterize?  now you got it, God you are slow PS you are a Texan?  you where in Texas when this all occured? or where you also in Cancun with Ted ?

I see your quite a capable individual, are your efforts overwhelming?...Asking for a friend.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

3 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

I see your quite a capable individual, are your efforts overwhelming?...Asking for a friend.

Notsonice is another Eejit sock puppet 

[notsonice + 1,255]

2 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

I see your quite a capable individual, are your efforts overwhelming?...Asking for a friend.

You are a monkey? IQ of maybe 75? That explains your low IQ posts

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

Just now, Ward Smith said:

Notsonice is another Eejit sock puppet 

Ohh Enthalapic is ancient history. A by gone waste product of yesterday. Sorry if i mispelled the handle. Odd is it not?

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

4 minutes ago, notsonice said:

You are a monkey? IQ of maybe 75? That explains your low IQ posts

Communicating with a another sometimes requires getting into their "Character". I can be quite a Eye Opening experience.

[Symmetry + 109]

8 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

..Asking for a friend.

Ward is not your friend.  Stop stroking his **** to please imagined e-friends.

[turbguy + 1,540]

2 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Well now finally some clarity, looks like Texas is cowboying UP!. Good for them, perhaps the financial back story will emerge...this could lead to extreme consequences for the environmental community.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Texas-Strikes-Back-At-The-Anti-Fossil-Fuel-Lobby.html

Texas Strikes Back At The Anti-Fossil Fuel Lobby

Hmmm...

Wonder if Wyoming might do something similar.

[turbguy + 1,540]

2 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Okay, let me see if I have this right: The wind is unreliable, but it can save on gas (which the state is flaring to the tune of $3M/day). To save on gas, and to support this unreliable wind source, the Great State of Texas is supposed to have dozens of natural gas utility plants that cost hundreds of billions sitting idle, waiting for when the wind stops blowing. 

And you're still stuck on "those blackouts were caused primarily by freeze-offs of the NG supply and secondarily by NG failures to winterize."

The wind is not "unreliable".  It is less reliable than thermal generation.

Yup, if the wind generation is there, you don't need to burn so much stuff.

If the wind generation is not there, you use the sources that burn more stuff.

If neither wind or thermal sources aren't there, you rely on demand management.

Since wind "wasn't there", what happened to the thermal sources?

Edited March 12, 2021 by turbguy

[turbguy + 1,540]

4 hours ago, NickW said:

This is interesting, in the interests of actually considering potential solutions to this problem. 

There are at least 10 potential close loop pump storage sites across Texas with 150 Gwh of capacity around San Antonio and Amarillo. In addition another 10 50 Gwh sites. 

NationalMap (terria.io)

 

Interesting map!  Thanx!!

Most of those potential "sites" would require condemning a lot of agricultural land, as well as affecting irrigation throughout larger regions.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

24 minutes ago, turbguy said:

Hmmm...

Wonder if Wyoming might do something similar.

https://www.npr.org/2021/02/25/965775584/north-dakota-officials-block-wind-power-in-effort-to-save-coal

If one can get there heads out of this failure.. that failure.. and you dunnit attitude.. things become quite clear.Texas literally blew out top admin weeks ago. The term in my former was industry is being broomed, That takes a lot of malfeasance/corruption being played out financially. It could be such a embarrassment it will never be known,or in the true nature of some Texans the gentleman leave the building and it gets real nasty..just nasty.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

53 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Communicating with a another sometimes requires getting into their "Character". I can be quite a Eye Opening experience.

Notice how you post to notsonice and symmetry rushed to his sock puppet's defence? 

He's actually enough of an Eejit that be believes we can't see right through him. Sad and pathetic really

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

12 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Notice how you post to notsonice and symmetry rushed to his sock puppet's defence? 

He's actually enough of an Eejit that be believes we can't see right through him. Sad and pathetic really

It is odd yet so many ties that bind "IT" all into one. Bradley PNW snuck out a few days ago...guitar amps/electronics..Only Bradley and one other make such references...Oh well "Such Is Life".. I count perhaps 7 in one.

Stunted Savant's..?

Edited March 12, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[turbguy + 1,540]

I repeat:

Since wind "wasn't there", what happened to the thermal sources?

BTW, the February ERCOT operating report should make for an interesting read...

Edited March 12, 2021 by turbguy

[turbguy + 1,540]

55 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

https://www.npr.org/2021/02/25/965775584/north-dakota-officials-block-wind-power-in-effort-to-save-coal

If one can get there heads out of this failure.. that failure.. and you dunnit attitude.. things become quite clear.Texas literally blew out top admin weeks ago. The term in my former was industry is being broomed, That takes a lot of malfeasance/corruption being played out financially. It could be such a embarrassment it will never be known,or in the true nature of some Texans the gentleman leave the building and it gets real nasty..just nasty.

Unless Coal Creek plant can get lower priced fuel, it WILL shut down.   These are really shocks to the local communities.  Without political actions to the market, it is going to happen.

That unused transmission line WILL be used for "something else" once that coal plant ceases operation.  After some delays, the courts will see to that.

How about fueling the plant with something that might have gone thru the Keystone XL instead?  

 

Edited March 12, 2021 by turbguy

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

6 minutes ago, turbguy said:

I repeat:

Since wind "wasn't there", what happened to the thermal sources?

Well there are 10,700 wind turbines in TX, what is the sum of there total output. How many turbines were on line when the failure occurred, what was the sum of there total output at the time of failure.

How much slack did the gensets have to pick up, how much output did the genset network have? 

Answer those question and you will get somewhat of a understanding, then it would be most interesting watching these gensets light up and fail as the loads increased...did the gensets fail due to design or did the gensets run out of gas...ahh then which gas lines failed or was it a massive gas line failure....This might take awhile all over freezing rain.