.

[turbguy + 1,540]

1 hour ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Wall Street and big tech team up to oppose Texas wind power bill

https://www.ft.com/content/39091187-ce77-4bc5-8903-441d5fa7a5d4

Now is the time to see how well "money talks".

The variability of solar and wind renewable power generation needs to be recognized and accommodated if grid reliability is to be maintained.  If that accommodation requires spinning reserve, or storage, "weatherization" or transmission system mods, eventually the consumers end up paying for it in the end. 

Unless we can get Mexico to pay for it??

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

18 hours ago, turbguy said:

Now is the time to see how well "money talks".

The variability of solar and wind renewable power generation needs to be recognized and accommodated if grid reliability is to be maintained.  If that accommodation requires spinning reserve, or storage, "weatherization" or transmission system mods, eventually the consumers end up paying for it in the end. 

Unless we can get Mexico to pay for it??

Well now the below is quite interesting, it seems Indiana has taken a look into the TX grid debacle. Personally I applaud their governing body for taking such a fundamental approach. Fake it till you make it was has been overrated.

 

Indiana regulators slash a net metering rate, advise solar owners to buy a battery

The Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission (IURC) delivered a final order (Cause No. 45378) that reduces the credit received by future solar owners served by CenterPoint Energy unit Vectren South. The decision also changed the period for earning credits so that more customer-owned solar generation is credited at the new lower rate.

One solar installer told regulators that Vectren South’s proposal would cut the net metering rate of 14.3 cents for residential and 9.3 cents per kWh for commercial customers to about 3.1 cents per kWh. He said that the utility’s proposed instantaneous netting methodology would “drastically reduce or dry up” his company’s business, and he said the proposal would more than triple the expected customer payback period from 7-10 years to about 25 years.

https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2021/04/08/indiana-regulators-slash-a-net-metering-rate-advise-solar-owners-to-buy-a-battery/

Edited April 10, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[Robert Ziegler + 121]

On 4/9/2021 at 4:26 PM, turbguy said:

...and yet the system works.

Wind turbines can actually provide greater amounts of stored rotating inertia than synchronous machines.   Synchronous machines will trip if frequency (speed) deviates by greater that 1%, so a huge amount of stored inertia is unavailable.  Wind turbine (being typically non-synchronous) can contribute stored inertia over a MUCH larger speed range.

Dream on..... My analysis stands, and personally,  I invested into a Generator that can run for weeks, as long as the natural gas keeps flowing at my house, this year..... And I also have a trailer mounted Diesel powered one, that can run for a few days with onboard fuel.

[Robert Ziegler + 121]

20 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Those natural gas supplies would easily have made it to the utilities if only the EPA had not mandated that they could not use their own, plentiful natural gas to generate their own power, so the blackout would have had no effect. I didn't bother responding to the idiocy a few pages back that suggested a freaking parallel grid to supply the gas producers.

Much easier to bitch slap some brains into the EPA (well admittedly that's likely impossible) or simply demand a carve out. The EPA has their heads up their nether regions if they imagine that natural gas burned in a generator is somehow more polluting than natural gas burned in a bigger generator. I admit, they raise the bar on stupidity every day, but that stupidity takes the cake. Locally produced power has the additional benefit of locally generated heat, which can easily help freezing problems. I guarantee you much more gas was lost due to no power for compressors than ever was lost from frozen valves. 

Regarding EPA, this sums up their "science"..... https://www.lewrockwell.com/lrc-blog/science-says-the-corbett-report-youtube-deleted-his-account-because-of-this-presentation/

[turbguy + 1,540]

58 minutes ago, Robert Ziegler said:

Dream on..... My analysis stands, and personally,  I invested into a Generator that can run for weeks, as long as the natural gas keeps flowing at my house, this year..... And I also have a trailer mounted Diesel powered one, that can run for a few days with onboard fuel.

We will have to agree to disagree. Just remember that only about 2% of the stored inertia in synchronous generation is available for actual use before it separates from the grid.

As for personal home back-up generation, that's a good thing.   If you can afford it, and have the space, that's great.

[turbguy + 1,540]

1 hour ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Well now the below is quite interesting, it seems Indiana has taken a look into the TX grid debacle. Personally I applaud their governing body for taking such a fundamental approach. Fake it till you make it was has been overrated.

 

Indiana regulators slash a net metering rate, advise solar owners to buy a battery

The Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission (IURC) delivered a final order (Cause No. 45378) that reduces the credit received by future solar owners served by CenterPoint Energy unit Vectren South. The decision also changed the period for earning credits so that more customer-owned solar generation is credited at the new lower rate.

One solar installer told regulators that Vectren South’s proposal would cut the net metering rate of 14.3 cents for residential and 9.3 cents per kWh for commercial customers to about 3.1 cents per kWh. He said that the utility’s proposed instantaneous netting methodology would “drastically reduce or dry up” his company’s business, and he said the proposal would more than triple the expected customer payback period from 7-10 years to about 25 years.

https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2021/04/08/indiana-regulators-slash-a-net-metering-rate-advise-solar-owners-to-buy-a-battery/

I could never understand how the full price of net metering on excess (outflow) solar generation could be credited back to a solar generator.  They should receive the same as any other generator (fossil, nuc, renewable) receives.    

I tend to agree with the IURC's decision, even if it hurts the little guy.   

BTW, I would not have a large battery within my home. Perhaps in a dedicated outbuilding, but NOT in the home.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

1 hour ago, turbguy said:

I could never understand how the full price of net metering on excess (outflow) solar generation could be credited back to a solar generator.  They should receive the same as any other generator (fossil, nuc, renewable) receives.    

I tend to agree with the IURC's decision, even if it hurts the little guy.   

BTW, I would not have a large battery within my home. Perhaps in a dedicated outbuilding, but NOT in the home.

Yes I get that battery in my home thought. Ive been rebuilding/updating a old 83 RV..(Tinkeritis on steroids)

Part of that process was is complete self sustained power system..aka solar. A Telsa power cell was in the making until I gave somethought as to a sudden discharge...Visions of my 35 ft all aluminum construction being reduced to smoldering beer can. 

 

Edited April 10, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[JUAN 0]

On 2/15/2021 at 2:02 PM, Ward Smith said:

 

[JUAN 0]

Yes !!, but just for the moment !!!, this transition time. Later the choppers will be electrical also, the chemical compound, of course will be always from fossil origen but that is the only future for oil; plastics, polimers and many other products that surely cientifics genius will discover but the bunch oil used nowadays will disappear, replaced by EV's. For sure also, engineers will develop some appliance to keep warm this big "wind blowers" during winter time, actioned with the same electricity produced by them, so is better to attach to the very close energy future.

[Ecocharger + 1,459]

On 4/8/2021 at 10:34 AM, joeschmoe said:

Just AMAZINGLY clueless. They have windmills in NORTH DAKOTA, properly winterized. What's more, gas plants in Texas had to shut down too, unable to operate in the extreme cold.

  It is a clear picture of incompetent management of the grid, they were caught with their pants down, counting on a "normal" weather pattern when Global Warming reared its head. That's right, that freeze was a result of Global Warming, Arctic air pushed to Texas. Too bad deniers can't grasp simple science and choose to hate on scientists for the facts and green energy for looking for solutions. They are angry flat-earthers, unable to adapt or even acknowledge weather changes brought on by Global Warming, forging on looking neither right or left, leaving their intelligence behind in their attacks on facts.

 

There is a new school of climate science based on solar variables research, which offers a better explanation of weather patterns than the global warming hypothesis. Check back on this thread above, we discussed a number of the recent scientific articles on this approach.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

On 4/10/2021 at 1:09 PM, JUAN said:

Yes !!, but just for the moment !!!, this transition time. Later the choppers will be electrical also, the chemical compound, of course will be always from fossil origen but that is the only future for oil; plastics, polimers and many other products that surely cientifics genius will discover but the bunch oil used nowadays will disappear, replaced by EV's. For sure also, engineers will develop some appliance to keep warm this big "wind blowers" during winter time, actioned with the same electricity produced by them, so is better to attach to the very close energy future.

Juan, wind power is variable, so it can never be depended on as base capacity or dispatchable capacity. When wind is available, it is much cheaper than even the variable costs of an NG generator, so it should be economically preferred when available. But since the wind sometimes quits blowing, the grid must be engineered to work without it. Since this is true anyway, it is not cost-effective to spend money on de-icing the blades in an environment where icing occurs only once a decade: the icing event can be treated like a no-wind event. Hardening against extreme cold is a different matter and is not the same as hardening against icing.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 4/10/2021 at 1:06 PM, turbguy said:

I could never understand how the full price of net metering on excess (outflow) solar generation could be credited back to a solar generator.  They should receive the same as any other generator (fossil, nuc, renewable) receives.    

I tend to agree with the IURC's decision, even if it hurts the little guy.   

BTW, I would not have a large battery within my home. Perhaps in a dedicated outbuilding, but NOT in the home.

Insurance companies might start to raise prices on those batteries. Theft is an issue on solar panels already. Now fires or explosions?

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

On 4/11/2021 at 5:56 PM, Dan Clemmensen said:

But since the wind sometimes quits blowing, the grid must be engineered to work without it.

Now that is the center issue for all this debate, It is good to see you post your well founded thoughts on a rather simple subject.

[turbguy + 1,540]

On 4/11/2021 at 6:56 PM, Dan Clemmensen said:

Juan, wind power is variable, so it can never be depended on as base capacity or dispatchable capacity. When wind is available, it is much cheaper than even the variable costs of an NG generator, so it should be economically preferred when available. But since the wind sometimes quits blowing, the grid must be engineered to work without it. Since this is true anyway, it is not cost-effective to spend money on de-icing the blades in an environment where icing occurs only once a decade: the icing event can be treated like a no-wind event. Hardening against extreme cold is a different matter and is not the same as hardening against icing.

The grid IS currently engineered to work without it.

It's called "load shedding".

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

40 minutes ago, turbguy said:

The grid IS currently engineered to work without it.

It's called "load shedding".

A thought...never give a engineer a open check book...never. Unless of course they are using their own money...Things can become rather simple from that point on.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

4 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

A thought...never give a engineer a open check book...never. Unless of course they are using their own money...Things can become rather simple from that point on.

An alternate thought: never give the accountants control of the requirements specifications...unless the accountants are willing to let their own children freeze in the dark.

[turbguy + 1,540]

And now the insurers look to pass on the costs of claims.  Per one lawyer, "...the harm from February’s power outages was “foreseeable, expected and/or intended.”

Ultimately this is a case about how to allocate costs, not how to cheat policyholders.  It's going to be one insurance company against another.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/business/texas-freeze-utilities-california-fires.html

Edited April 15, 2021 by turbguy

[nsdp + 449]

10 hours ago, turbguy said:

And now the insurers look to pass on the costs of claims.  Per one lawyer, "...the harm from February’s power outages was “foreseeable, expected and/or intended.”

Ultimately this is a case about how to allocate costs, not how to cheat policyholders.  It's going to be one insurance company against another.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/business/texas-freeze-utilities-california-fires.html

Or the Insurance companies and utilities against the State of Texas. The state of Texas has a $15 billion in a rainy day fund that can be reached by federal courts since states do not enjoy sovereign immunity in bankruptcy or criminal restitution proceedings as a co-conspirator under 15 USC1. Justice Oliver Wendel Holmes.  The PUCT set the $9/k/mwh price for the market not the state legislature. With the clown we have for AG (he lost one because he didn't read the FRBP and local rules), That is definitely on the table.  Brazos Electric Coop already has filed a claim for some.   I got my US Supreme Court license 41 years ago and I will sit this one out and laugh. I won't live to see the end. This may match Guy Thompson Trustee for the Missouri Pacific Railroad in how long it will last.

Edited April 16, 2021 by nsdp

[turbguy + 1,540]

11 hours ago, nsdp said:

Or the Insurance companies and utilities against the State of Texas. The state of Texas has a $15 billion in a rainy day fund that can be reached by federal courts since states do not enjoy sovereign immunity in bankruptcy or criminal restitution proceedings as a co-conspirator under 15 USC1. Justice Oliver Wendel Holmes.  The PUCT set the $9/k/mwh price for the market not the state legislature. With the clown we have for AG (he lost one because he didn't read the FRBP and local rules), That is definitely on the table.  Brazos Electric Coop already has filed a claim for some.   I got my US Supreme Court license 41 years ago and I will sit this one out and laugh. I won't live to see the end. This may match Guy Thompson Trustee for the Missouri Pacific Railroad in how long it will last.

Yes, things can go in many forked directions.  An delay, delay, delay...

While I suspect 15 billion may be a "start", I suspect that Texas has other funding pools that could be at risk.

[notsonice + 1,255]

During the winter storms, natural gas production in Texas collapsed by 45 percent, primarily due to freeze-offs. Total U.S. dry natural gas production during the Freeze in Texas and much of the central part of the United States declined by 21 percent, to as low as 69.7 Bcf/d on February 17......... Once again the root of the problem was not renewables it was Nat Gas

[turbguy + 1,540]

38 minutes ago, notsonice said:

During the winter storms, natural gas production in Texas collapsed by 45 percent, primarily due to freeze-offs. Total U.S. dry natural gas production during the Freeze in Texas and much of the central part of the United States declined by 21 percent, to as low as 69.7 Bcf/d on February 17......... Once again the root of the problem was not renewables it was Nat Gas

While I agree a possible root cause of Texas' issues was supply of nat gas, that has yet to be found true.

It can be a potential root cause (to dig down further) to resolve.  I do expect it is a major root cause, but I cannot find solid evidence.

All sources of generation were effected/unprepared.

Politics may complicate or obscure root causes.

[nsdp + 449]

On 4/16/2021 at 4:35 PM, turbguy said:

While I agree a possible root cause of Texas' issues was supply of nat gas, that has yet to be found true.

It can be a potential root cause (to dig down further) to resolve.  I do expect it is a major root cause, but I cannot find solid evidence.

All sources of generation were effected/unprepared.

Politics may complicate or obscure root causes.

One way is a statistical analysis of production by county. Lea. Eddy, and Chaves counties (Permian basin producing counties)in NM suffered less than a 10% reduction.  Andrews, Borden and counties served 100% by Southwestern Public Service and/or Golden Spread Electric Coo,p as part of the Southwest Power Pool show about 12% drop.   Other counties?  Well that seems to be a different story. The freeze offs seem to be located in counties served by ERCOT members whether in the Permian,  Woodbine, Eagle Ford, Barnett or older plays in Texas.  But none in the Anadarko/Granite Wash.   GSEC customers in ERCOT froze too.  

turbguy,

Wonder if Austin will waive excess royalties on state lands and severance taxes on  all production?   State stands to collect a lot of extra money (several billion) from the overcharges.   Louisiana tried that  back in the late 1970's and lost.   Maryland vs Louisiana., 451 U.S. 725 (1981). I still remember Carmack Blackmun' s face when  Whizzer White broke the news.  Louisiana had to pay 12 % interest on the tax  refunds too.

[turbguy + 1,540]

9 hours ago, nsdp said:

One way is a statistical analysis of production by county. Lea. Eddy, and Chaves counties (Permian basin producing counties)in NM suffered less than a 10% reduction.  Andrews, Borden and counties served 100% by Southwestern Public Service and/or Golden Spread Electric Coo,p as part of the Southwest Power Pool show about 12% drop.   Other counties?  Well that seems to be a different story. The freeze offs seem to be located in counties served by ERCOT members whether in the Permian,  Woodbine, Eagle Ford, Barnett or older plays in Texas.  But none in the Anadarko/Granite Wash.   GSEC customers in ERCOT froze too.  

turbguy,

Wonder if Austin will waive excess royalties on state lands and severance taxes on  all production?   State stands to collect a lot of extra money (several billion) from the overcharges.   Louisiana tried that  back in the late 1970's and lost.   Maryland vs Louisiana., 451 U.S. 725 (1981). I still remember Carmack Blackmun' s face when  Whizzer White broke the news.  Louisiana had to pay 12 % interest on the tax  refunds too.

I have no feel for how the taxing situation "operates", much less how it "operates" under "market stressed" conditions. 

An then there are sales taxes to deal with as well, that would directly effect the final customer.

Cha-Ching!

[wrs + 893]

On 4/13/2021 at 12:40 AM, turbguy said:

The grid IS currently engineered to work without it.

It's called "load shedding".

Which is why I have purchases a generator and am waiting on a meter disconnect order so we can install it.  We had three power disruptions this past Thursday for about 5 minutes each and I found out they were ERCOT related.

[wrs + 893]

Look at the result of the outage on this expensive home above the river.  It's being offered for $2m as is.  A house down the street in good shape is offered for twice that.

 

 

64deb43412c8cc95c3aa54800b7472cf-uncropped_scaled_within_1536_1152.webp d74362f8bf1ac80edda5de6d0a6d6b68-uncropped_scaled_within_1536_1152.webp a533b2cff7a94e05f363dd543fccf6a7-uncropped_scaled_within_1536_1152.webp 4a067597939b048363df911f89b22da0-uncropped_scaled_within_1536_1152.webp ed5e13fdc66669c9b10d57b481602297-uncropped_scaled_within_1536_1152.webp 5d61c50a89170c04f4525230f6893af3-uncropped_scaled_within_1536_1152.webp