.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,539]

55 minutes ago, turbguy said:

Does that mean my 10 acres at 7400' will increase in value?

Got underground electric/nat gas/phone.

In Wyoming? Not, yet the view would define the enormity of this earth and its grand splendor. 

The day is coming near I will charter a copter strictly to fly thru those mountains and pick a spot to just sit there and take it all in.

There is something extremely primal to mountain ranges, yet to me they bring calm. Fair weather of course..

[turbguy + 1,401]

Looks like the grid may have forced South Texas Unit #1 off.  Hard to tell from this report.  You would think that a reactor feedpump would be supplied by the housepower (auxiliary) transformer.

 

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy/how-and-why-a-nuclear-reactor-shut-down-in-texas-cold-snap-when-energy-was-needed-most

I know some were hoping Texas would turn blue, but not like THIS!

Edited February 18, 2021 by turbguy

[turbguy + 1,401]

22 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

In Wyoming? Not, yet the view would define the enormity of this earth and its grand splendor. 

The day is coming near I will charter a copter strictly to fly thru those mountains and pick a spot to just sit there and take it all in.

There is something extremely primal to mountain ranges, yet to me they bring calm. Fair weather of course..

You MUST visit the Wind River Range!  Spectacular!  Here's one place (near Jackass Pass) I sat at for several hours...ain't easy to get to.  Click to enlarge.

http://hikingwalking.com/index.php/destinations/wy/wy_ww/big_sandy/tp_ct_loop

 

Edited February 18, 2021 by turbguy

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,539]

8 minutes ago, turbguy said:

You MUST visit the Wind River Range!  Spectacular!  Here's one place (near Jackass Pass) I sat at for several hours...ain't easy to get to.  Click to enlarge.

 

Smiles the view and the peace must be calming. Yet it only a minute outcropping. 

If one takes the mind and strips the soil and casts a glance across the valleys,contrasting the heights of the peaks. You can begin to comprehend the sheer size of these once violent upheavals. And how truly small we are as human's...And then there is time it takes to create such thing's.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

This is the best article I have seen on the Texas energy failures. https://www.chron.com/business/article/EXPLAINER-Why-the-power-grid-failed-in-Texas-and-15958278.php

It is obvious that all sorts of power systems were at fault. It seems that none of them were protected against extremely cold weather (by Texas standards) yet Texas has had plenty of cold weather in the past. The reason, as usual, is corporate insistence on maximizing profits and enriching the top executives and stockholders. The Texas powers that be have never insisted that best practices for power reliability in cold weather be mandated or given any priority whatsoever. Now all Texans are paying a price for their laissez-faire capitalism. Lets hope that this problem is corrected and that this never happens again. Texas has a black eye right now and it will take awhile for it to heal. RCW

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laissez-faire

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,132]

1 hour ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Smiles the view and the peace must be calming. Yet it only a minute outcropping. 

If one takes the mind and strips the soil and casts a glance across the valleys,contrasting the heights of the peaks. You can begin to comprehend the sheer size of these once violent upheavals. And how truly small we are as human's...And then there is time it takes to create such thing's.

If you stand on one of the wind river range peaks you can look out and see how all the summits(nearly all) are perfectly flat and almost all uniform in height.  Came up out of a flat plain. 

[turbguy + 1,401]

Oops!  ERCOT planned for only 928 MW of wind for the winter peak expectation of 57,699 MW.

http://www.ercot.com/news/releases/show/216844

..and then, oops!

 

Edited February 18, 2021 by turbguy

[turbguy + 1,401]

Texas lost a LOT of generation!

[turbguy + 1,401]

What?   WHAT?  WHAT??

Wasn't this guy someone in the last administration's Dept of Energy?  And a prior Governor of some state?

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Perry-says-Texans-wiling-to-suffer-blackouts-to-15956705.php

Edited February 18, 2021 by turbguy

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

4 hours ago, ronwagn said:

A prime example of what happens to the credibility of politicos who rely on outdated climate models, cling to them even when they are proven wrong, and pretend they know the future. There is plenty of room for the current leadership in that company.

[turbguy + 1,401]

5 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

A prime example of what happens to the credibility of politicos who rely on outdated climate models, cling to them even when they are proven wrong, and pretend they know the future. There is plenty of room for the current leadership in that company.

Looks more like ERCOT relied on "an outdated model" to me.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

20 hours ago, surrept33 said:

I think milankovitch theory is only one part of a bigger puzzle. 

https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2949/why-milankovitch-orbital-cycles-cant-explain-earths-current-warming/

I think the framing of the issue is best worded as 'change that turns into more intense changes' -  especially if you look at a long enough timeline (so it's important to plan ahead and diversify and look at the big picture and build in resilience everywhere) rather than warming or cooling - obviously it depends on where on the planet and what natural system breaks down and what they influence (which if you look at the interlinking at planet scale, is probably the whole planet), how do you convince China and India and other developing countries of 'that'?

The author link you give accepts the view of imminent global warming over the next few decades due to atmospheric CO2, which is the opposite prediction of the recent models I posted above....so....this is how science works, we will know soon if we are entering a cooling phase as predicted by this recent model, and if that happens then the global warming hypothesis can be put to rest. Judging by the trend this past winter, the cooling prediction, which was supposed to start in 2020, appears to be on schedule. It is supposed to last for at least thirty years, so if that plays out as forecast, the CO2 hypothesis becomes an historical curiosity in the history of science.

Edited February 18, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Richard D + 86]

On 2/16/2021 at 7:35 PM, NickW said:

zero to full output (1860MW) on Dinorwic (UK's biggest) pump storage unit is under 2 minutes. 

Dinorwic took 1 million tons of concrete to build. So no quick fix. I wonder if pumped storage could be boosted by using wind power to pump water from the lower reservoir to the upper one. Would be simple and solve the intermiiiency problem of wind power. I would prefer a fluidized-bed combustor and steam-turbine driven water pump to boost output and reduce use of the inefficient electrical pumping cycle. The combustor could burn waste coal,with a certain amount of refuse-derived fuel as a sop to the Greens.

[NickW + 2,714]

4 hours ago, Richard D said:

Dinorwic took 1 million tons of concrete to build. So no quick fix. I wonder if pumped storage could be boosted by using wind power to pump water from the lower reservoir to the upper one. Would be simple and solve the intermiiiency problem of wind power. I would prefer a fluidized-bed combustor and steam-turbine driven water pump to boost output and reduce use of the inefficient electrical pumping cycle. The combustor could burn waste coal,with a certain amount of refuse-derived fuel as a sop to the Greens.

A structure which will last 100's of years which puts the concrete usage into context. 

Perhaps your waste coal / RDF plant can be build upwind of your house? 

 

RE Dinorwic - it was original built with a view to storing nuclear power at night and then using it at peak periods the next day. 

This is still the case as the interconnectors run flat out over night buy el cheapo french nuclear surplus power. This is certainly more cost effective than buying LNG from Qatar, USA etc. 

Smaller Pump storage has been built since then, nothing on the same scale. 

Edited February 18, 2021 by NickW

[NickW + 2,714]

11 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Nick, your material is out of date, new models are on the scene.

Here is one, showing a cooling phase of several decades starting now. This is currently the best explanatory model with a 94% success rate, far above the outdated models which the Biden folks are relying on.

https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7575229/

 

Thats one paper written by a researcher. 

In any case if you read the text the predicted cooling will be  swamped by AGW driven rises. 

In effect it  will moderate temperature rises over the next 30 years rather than actually cool the earth. The other side of that situation is what happens after the earth comes out of the grand solar minimum? 

Edited February 18, 2021 by NickW

[Richard D + 86]

54 minutes ago, NickW said:

Thats one paper written by a researcher. 

In any case if you read the text the predicted cooling will be  swamped by AGW driven rises. 

In effect it  will moderate temperature rises over the next 30 years rather than actually cool the earth. The other side of that situation is what happens after the earth comes out of the grans solar minimum? 

50 years ago,I shared a house with a physics graduate who got up at 6am every morning to go and record data from the local weather station. He was working at far below his capabilities and bitterly resented his situation. I wonder about reliability of any data recorded before the year 2000,when satellites started to produce (mostly) accurate data. One generation is not long enough to discern any trends in climate. From history we have few smoking guns when it comes to variation in temperature. One was the low sunspot numbers of the 17th century (The Little Ice Age) and another was the 6th century volcanic smog when it was noted that,in some years,fruit would not ripen in Greece. Statistical analysis of suspect data by people who need research grant money. I recently watched a TV programme which claimed that the Amazon basin was once heavily populated by native peoples. Presumably they burnt the trees for fuel and to clear land for crops. There is no record of the pre-Columbus world being hotter,as a result.

[NickW + 2,714]

1 hour ago, Richard D said:

50 years ago,I shared a house with a physics graduate who got up at 6am every morning to go and record data from the local weather station. He was working at far below his capabilities and bitterly resented his situation. I wonder about reliability of any data recorded before the year 2000,when satellites started to produce (mostly) accurate data. One generation is not long enough to discern any trends in climate. From history we have few smoking guns when it comes to variation in temperature. One was the low sunspot numbers of the 17th century (The Little Ice Age) and another was the 6th century volcanic smog when it was noted that,in some years,fruit would not ripen in Greece. Statistical analysis of suspect data by people who need research grant money. I recently watched a TV programme which claimed that the Amazon basin was once heavily populated by native peoples. Presumably they burnt the trees for fuel and to clear land for crops. There is no record of the pre-Columbus world being hotter,as a result.

10-11 years ago we were at the same point with a few scientists on the fringes speculating about the imminent ice age. Glaciers supposedly  forming in Scotland etc. All based on a couple of colder than average winters that happened to coincide with the last solar minimum. The solar cycle varies solar irradiance by about 0.1w/m2

Roll fwd to 2021. There are no glaciers in Scotland. glaciers around the world continue to retreat, the volume of polar ice sheets continues to shrink, sea level rises are accelerating.

Perhaps a grand solar minimum over a few decades will buy a little time. 

RE climate records there are a whole range of other methodologies to estimate historical climate. At specific locations tree ring growth. Pollen entrapped in ice cores. These methods allow us to look back thousands / 100,000's thousand years. 

Edited February 18, 2021 by NickW

[NickW + 2,714]

5 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

A prime example of what happens to the credibility of politicos who rely on outdated climate models, cling to them even when they are proven wrong, and pretend they know the future. There is plenty of room for the current leadership in that company.

The key research question here is

A: Did Al Gore actual state that?

B: Did Ron put that on a picture / pick up the picture from the internet?

[NickW + 2,714]

On 2/15/2021 at 7:02 PM, Ward Smith said:

Whats a wind turbine in northern Sweden circa 2013 got to do with the Texas blackout crisis? 

[NickW + 2,714]

9 hours ago, turbguy said:

Looks like the grid may have forced South Texas Unit #1 off.  Hard to tell from this report.  You would think that a reactor feedpump would be supplied by the housepower (auxiliary) transformer.

 

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy/how-and-why-a-nuclear-reactor-shut-down-in-texas-cold-snap-when-energy-was-needed-most

I know some were hoping Texas would turn blue, but not like THIS!

Texas lost at least half its nuclear capacity. 

I assume its going to take a week or two to restart it. 

Perhaps someone can explain why nucs are not built with steam by-passes on the turbines so if the nuc trips by virtue of a transmission fault it simply sends the steam straight up the stack and the remaining energy in the turbine dumped into a resitive load (heat dump) 

[Richard D + 86]

4 hours ago, NickW said:

A structure which will last 100's of years which puts the concrete usage into context. 

Perhaps your waste coal / RDF plant can be build upwind of your house? 

 

RE Dinorwic - it was original built with a view to storing nuclear power at night and then using it at peak periods the next day. 

This is still the case as the interconnectors run flat out over night buy el cheapo french nuclear surplus power. This is certainly more cost effective than buying LNG from Qatar, USA etc. 

Smaller Pump storage has been built since then, nothing on the same scale. 

A 50MW power station burning RDF and other waste is being built in Slough,which is 2 miles from the Queen's little place at Windsor. 

[NickW + 2,714]

17 minutes ago, Richard D said:

A 50MW power station burning RDF and other waste is being built in Slough,which is 2 miles from the Queen's little place at Windsor. 

Slight difference. The UK is running out of landfill space, exporting waste to be 'recycled' is getting harder. We have to process that waste somehow as recycling opportunities are limited. 

[Richard D + 86]

3 hours ago, NickW said:

10-11 years ago we were at the same point with a few scientists on the fringes speculating about the imminent ice age. Glaciers supposedly  forming in Scotland etc. All based on a couple of colder than average winters that happened to coincide with the last solar minimum. The solar cycle varies solar irradiance by about 0.1w/m2

Roll fwd to 2021. There are no glaciers in Scotland. glaciers around the world continue to retreat, the volume of polar ice sheets continues to shrink, sea level rises are accelerating.

Perhaps a grand solar minimum over a few decades will buy a little time. 

RE climate records there are a whole range of other methodologies to estimate historical climate. At specific locations tree ring growth. Pollen entrapped in ice cores. These methods allow us to look back thousands / 100,000's thousand years. 

When does 'estimate' become 'guess'. Low tree growth in a particular year could be caused by drought in a hot year or could be caused by a cold year. There have been accusations,in UK,of selective use of data to prove a climate point. Researchers have picked the tree that suited. It is interesting that fields in Ireland which were carefully walled in stone in the Bronze Age are now covered in a thick layer of peat. In my part of the world (south-west England) it seems that sea level has been rising for ages. A fine stone wharf in Poole harbor just about comes to the surface at very low tides. It has been dated to 400 BC.

[turbguy + 1,401]

1 hour ago, NickW said:

Texas lost at least half its nuclear capacity. 

I assume its going to take a week or two to restart it. 

Perhaps someone can explain why nucs are not built with steam by-passes on the turbines so if the nuc trips by virtue of a transmission fault it simply sends the steam straight up the stack and the remaining energy in the turbine dumped into a resitive load (heat dump) 

That would be a helluva resistor!  Cooling would require the equal of say, another cooling tower, or cooling pond, more circ pumps, and BIG pipes and make up water.  All used very infrequently, costing $$$.  All requiring periodic testing.

"Transmission faults" take time to identify, troubleshoot and restore. And you STILL have to be ready for an internal generator or step-up transformer fault anyway.  When THAT happens, the Main Steam Stop Valves (actuality ALL steam turbine valves) slam shut, and the resistor would be unused. 

Large step/rapid changes in Rx power are difficult to control due to Xenon poisoning.   See:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenon-135  

That's one reason nuc plants don't "participate" in dispatch.  They run pedal-to-the-metal (except for periodic minor derates due to required on-line turbine valve testing and the like).

There are main steam bypass valves directly to the condenser on BWR's (not sure about PWR's),  but only designed for part-flow (say 20%?) used during starting, and taking a real wear and tear toll on the condenser as well.

Again, If the issue at South Texas #1 was the loss of a reactor feed pump (on the primary side), why that pump was not being supplied by the aux transformer.

I find most news reports about plant outages inaccurate, anyway.

Edited February 18, 2021 by turbguy

[surrept33 + 609]

9 hours ago, turbguy said:

What?   WHAT?  WHAT??

Wasn't this guy someone in the last administration's Dept of Energy?  And a prior Governor of some state?

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Perry-says-Texans-wiling-to-suffer-blackouts-to-15956705.php

Probably this will result in inevitable regulation to derisk at least part of this. Why? Reduction of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tail_risk and exposure to PPAs that tend to blur the lines between states (so hence deal with interstate commerce). For example, a lot of California carbon market RECs are "recycled" in the form of Texas VPPAs, but too much of a gap between PPAs (which require actual physical electrical transmission lines need to be built to move electrons across) and vPPAs (which is a financial security) results in a lot of Texas power companies not having as much easy access to 'green' financing since there isn't as much corporate demand. See https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-09/documents/webinar_kent_20160928.pdf (but the actual markets have really taken off exponentially since then due to carbon neutral supply chains)