Simple question: What is the expected impact in electricity Demand when EV deployment exceeds 10%

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

1 hour ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

Lithium supply is going to be a challenge, but "challenging" does not mean "impossible". I suspect we'll all be surprised by how effectively industry solves this problem.

Do not underestimate Elon Musk. When he sees an upcoming problem in ten years, he begins to solve it. I have consistently underestimated him and been embarrassed by it. Tesla's first car, the roadster, was a super-expensive toy. He produced of because he thought the world needed EVs and nobody was trying to build them. Ten years later, Tesla dominated the EV market.  In the process, Elon realized he needed a reliable high-volume battery supplier, so we built Giga Nevada in conjunction with Panasonic. Elon wanted to go to Mars, but there were no cost-effective ways to get to space. SpaceX's first Falcon rockets all crashed: an embarrassing joke. Ten years later, SpaceX dominates the space launch business, with prices less than half the competition, and no other launch company can compete without government subsidies. the moral of this story: If you are a lithium supplier, either figure out a way to increase your supply or expect to be crushed.

Elon is either an incredible visionary or an incredibly lucky nutcase. It doesn't matter which, the results are the same.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

5 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

Good article; thanks.

Having read the article, my initial reaction is bafflement - not because they reached that conclusion, but because they felt compelled to dedicate an entire report to saying, "The answer for OEMs is more active management of supply chains."

First, was this not obvious? If the market isn't providing, one has two options: create an incentive (E.g. long term contracts) or DIY. I learned that in an undergraduate business strategy course; surely every MBA and principal engineer is also aware of it.

Second, their report seems to imply that this isn't already happening. I wouldn't be surprised to learn the Big 3 ignored this, but I don't expect them to be around in 2030, so that point is moot. By contrast, I would be quite surprised to learn that an Asian or European automaker isn't on top of this. One could argue that there's no public evidence of such activity, but that's not how business works. Businesses generally avoid broadcasting their next moves.

Third, red tape tends to disappear when it pleases the ruling class. E.g. the War on Terror, the financial crisis of 2008, and Covid have all enabled governments to do the previously unthinkable, questionably legal, and ludicrously expensive. The US alone is already $5 Trillion in the hole over Covid alone. If the developed world decides oil imports must be ended, I don't think some exploration, mining permits, or capital investment are going to stop them.

That brings me to an important question: how fast could all of this happen if the relevant players really wanted it to happen? World War II is the benchmark for economic transformation. While sending a significant fraction of its existing workforce off to war, the US doubled it's entire economy every year for four years. Not just one raw material. Not just one industry. The entire economy. Because they actually wanted it.

I use World War II as an example because I see analysts consistently making bad, implicit assumptions. They assume things will play out the way things played out during most recently under "normal" conditions in the industry they happen to know. If they bothered to dig deeper into history, reach broader into other industries, and ask their questions more carefully, they would see the world differently.

Lithium supply is going to be a challenge, but "challenging" does not mean "impossible". I suspect we'll all be surprised by how effectively industry solves this problem.

No one says that lithium supply will be IMPOSSIBLE, rather the shortfalls in production over potential demand IF there is to be widespread conversion away from oil-based fuels for transportation would send the price of lithium high enough to put battery-powered EV transport above the level which most people could afford. In other words, EV transport would become even more the privilege of the economic elite, and the common man would have to wear a mask and use electrified bus transport.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

4 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

A long-range EV has a 75 kWh battery, which contains 67.5 Kg LCE. The current price of LCE (delivered) is about $10/kg, for a total LCE cost of about $675. If that price spikes to $30/kg in 2030, it adds $1350 to the cost of each car. Nobody except Rystad thinkg the price will triple, and even Rystad does not think the price would stay that high. they see 2030 as a spike that will come back down when supply increases. They do not appear to be predicting a "rapid" rise, but a more gradual rise over a decade. This is not the crude oil market, where prices can double in a year.  Furthermore, the auto manufacturers have six years before demand reaches the current LCE supply capacity, and ten years befor Rystad's putative spike.

The average car is driven more than 13,000 mi/yr. At an average of 30 mi/gal, this is 433 gals of gasoline per year. At $280/gal, this is $1200. if the price spikes to $3.80/gal, it increases the cost of gasoline each year by $433. Somehow, we manage to keep driving when the price varies.

The total cost of ownership for an EV is already lower than for an ICE because of fuel costs. I don't think the EV will be unaffordable by  the poor. A poor person will not buy an expensive EV. A poor person does not currently buy an expensive ICE. The average cost of a new car in the US in January 2021 was about $40,000.

A simple tripling of the lithium component cost is a very low-end possibility, if there are bottlenecks due to supply constraints, that lithium price could escalate to many times the current level. That throws off the credibility of affordable transport by battery. And what percentage of the EV battery market is lithium-based now?  Nearly all of it is conventional battery, whose components are even more supply-constrained than lithium. Realistically, you have at least TWO transitions proposed here, oil to battery, traditional battery to lithium battery. We need more information on temperature stability of these proposed new batteries, the main issue being catching on fire. Low-end battery makers could skimp on fire-safety profiles.

Again, this is not about CO2 reduction, as base source for electricity supply continues to be coal.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

4 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

The Rystad article ignores newer battery recycling methods that are already in production. See:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/10/tesla-jb-straubel-redwood-materials-battery-recycling.html

This thread is supposed to be about the effect of EVs on the electrical grid. All those other uses of petroleum are a (mostly) unchanged by the replacement of ICE with EV. If we want to discuss them, we can go to a different thread. There are alternatives to fossil petroleum for each of them, and almost all of them make economic sense.

Even if EVs replace only gasoline and diesel for land transportation, that's still a 74% reduction in crude oil, with no need for de-growth and poverty, because EVs are less expensive than ICE.

This thread and others is dependent on overall CO2 strategy. If the science progresses with regard to CO2-based climate change, then all the work on transitioning to electric are without purpose. Government policy on CO2 is what is driving the development of EV adoption through tax incentives. If the rationale for transitioning becomes compromised, the government supports for EV adoption are without political momentum. That changes the dynamics of the EV market.

Crude oil is not the only CO2-based substance, there are coal demand increases if coal-based electricity is to be the basis of transport, coal will be needed for steel production, for concrete production, and asphalt to pave roads requires thick oil.

Natural gas will continue as a go-to basis for heating fuel.

The development of sub-economies in many geographical areas will increase the demand for coal and oil-based substances.

There is no sunset clause on the oil or coal industries.

Edited April 16, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

7 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

 And what percentage of the EV battery market is lithium-based now?  Nearly all of it is conventional battery, whose components are even more supply-constrained than lithium. Realistically, you have at least TWO transitions proposed here, oil to battery, traditional battery to lithium battery. We need more information on temperature stability of these proposed new batteries, the main issue being catching on fire. Low-end battery makers could skimp on fire-safety profiles.

Again, this is not about CO2 reduction, as base source for electricity supply continues to be coal.

100% of the EV battery market is lithium ion. When you say conventional battery what chemistry do you mean?

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

29 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

100% of the EV battery market is lithium ion. When you say conventional battery what chemistry do you mean?

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-vital-electric-car-battery-component-no-one-is-talking-about-675267653.html

Also this about cobalt....graphite and cobalt are essential to the current generation of batteries.

The technology race is now to transition away from the traditional lithium battery to something without cobalt or graphite, yet still using lithium.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/apple-google-microsoft-tesla-dell-sued-over-cobalt-mining-children-in-congo-for-batteries-2019-12-17/

Edited April 16, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

I'm still confused. So you say there will need to be a transition from graphite predominate batteries to lithium predominate? No one is suggesting anything of the kind. Actually it is the other way around. As the article mentions the interest is in making graphene batteries with more graphite and less lithium.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

26 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

I'm still confused. So you say there will need to be a transition from graphite predominate batteries to lithium predominate? No one is suggesting anything of the kind. Actually it is the other way around. As the article mentions the interest is in making graphene batteries with more graphite and less lithium.

That is a source of supply bottleneck given the scarcity of graphite. And cobalt scarcity is also going to be binding on production of batteries (see the article I linked above, where the child-labor issue is highlighting the supply constraints).

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/apple-google-microsoft-tesla-dell-sued-over-cobalt-mining-children-in-congo-for-batteries-2019-12-17/

These severe bottlenecks will drive up the price of EV's beyond the household budget of the average Joe or Jay.

There is research into new types of lithium batteries not needing graphite or cobalt, good luck to them.

Edited April 16, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

1 minute ago, Ecocharger said:

That is a source of supply bottleneck given the scarcity of graphite. And cobalt scarcity is also going to be binding on production of batteries (see the article I linked above, where the child-labor issue is highlighting the supply constraints).

These severe bottlenecks will drive up the price of EV's beyond the household budget of the average Joe or Jay.

The history of economics is that high prices of a supply constraint cause the market to find more supply and decrease cost. Graphite hasn't been very valuable so production has been low. As demand increases so will supply. Or the market finds substitutes which is happening in regard to cobalt as new battery chemistries use less or even none of it.

Your perceived bottlenecks will all be short term. The cost of EV's will continue to decline.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

17 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The history of economics is that high prices of a supply constraint cause the market to find more supply and decrease cost. Graphite hasn't been very valuable so production has been low. As demand increases so will supply. Or the market finds substitutes which is happening in regard to cobalt as new battery chemistries use less or even none of it.

Your perceived bottlenecks will all be short term. The cost of EV's will continue to decline.

Graphite and cobalt are scarce because the sources and possible sources are limited in the extreme, no chance of increasing supplies to the necessary level of demand if the EV transition is a serious goal (which I doubt). 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Difficult-Truth-About-Decarbonization.html

So, yes, as you suggest, some new technology must be found which does not rely on graphite or cobalt, and nothing has happened yet to replace either one of these bottlenecked commodities. A close friend of mine who is a battery engineer tells me that cobalt will not be replaceable, it prevents batteries from overheating and catching on fire. No conceivable replacement.

https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/21/17488626/elon-musk-cobalt-electric-vehicle-battery-science

And that lawsuit over child slave labor in toxic cobalt mines appears to be a choke factor for the industry.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/apple-google-microsoft-tesla-dell-sued-over-cobalt-mining-children-in-congo-for-batteries-2019-12-17/

Edited April 16, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

Just now, Ecocharger said:

Graphite and cobalt are scarce because the sources and possible sources are limited in the extreme, no chance of increasing supplies to the necessary level of demand if the EV transition is a serious goal (which I doubt). 

So, yes, as you suggest, some new technology must be found which does not rely on graphite or cobalt, and nothing has happened yet to replace either one of these bottlenecked commodities. A close friend of mine who is a battery engineer tells me that cobalt will not be replaceable, it prevents batteries from overheating and catching on fire. No conceivable replacement.

And that lawsuit over child slave labor in toxic cobalt mines appears to be a choke factor for the industry.

LFP batteries that Tesla is using in many of its cars has no cobalt. So yes cobalt is not only replaceable but its substitute is already in commercial production.

Graphite is not scarce. Particularly because synthetic graphite is easy to produce and is what is used in batteries. Carbon is one of the most abundant elements on the planet.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

Just now, Jay McKinsey said:

LFP batteries that Tesla is using in many of its cars has no cobalt. So yes cobalt is not only replaceable but its substitute is already in commercial production.

Graphite is not scarce. Particularly because synthetic graphite is easy to produce and is what is used in batteries. Carbon is one of the most abundant elements on the planet.

You guys are supposed to be DE-CARBONIZING us, Jay....what's with the desire to carbonize?

I gave you the link above to an engineer's analysis of the cobalt problem. No-cobalt is not a possibility,

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

8 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

You guys are supposed to be DE-CARBONIZING us, Jay....what's with the desire to carbonize?

I gave you the link above to an engineer's analysis of the cobalt problem. No-cobalt is not a possibility,

Yeah it is funny that the term de-carbonizing is used when in fact the future is to use more carbon, I've grumbled about that for years. The difference is of course that green carbon use means that it is not emitted into the atmosphere.

As to cobalt i don't know what to tell you. It is no secret that LFP batteries have no cobalt and are in production Tesla vehicles. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesmorris/2020/07/11/teslas-shift-to-cobalt-free-batteries-is-its-most-important-move-yet/?sh=2446e62446b4

Edited April 16, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Yeah it is funny that the term de-carbonizing is used when in fact the future is to use more carbon, I've grumbled about that for years. The difference is of course that green carbon use means that is is not emitted into the atmosphere.

As to cobalt i don't know what to tell you. It is no secret that LFP batteries have no cobalt and are in production Tesla vehicles. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesmorris/2020/07/11/teslas-shift-to-cobalt-free-batteries-is-its-most-important-move-yet/?sh=2446e62446b4

Jay, you are referring to only the low-end local-range market, the cheap end. Cobalt will continue to be in hot demand for electric batteries, as the recent price run-ups have indicated. 

The basic engineering problems which I linked to you above still remain, and will cause the price of EV's to skyrocket very soon.

Check the market break-down here, only local low-end EV's are candidates for the non-cobalt technology, and we will see how that works out going forward,  fires are apparently a concern.

https://www.mining.com/cobalt-nickel-free-electric-car-batteries-are-a-runaway-success/

Edited April 16, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

2 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Jay, you are referring to only the low-end local-range market, the cheap end. Cobalt will continue to be in hot demand for electric batteries, as the recent price run-ups have indicated. 

The basic engineering problems which I linked to you above still remain, and will cause the price of EV's to skyrocket very soon.

Check the market break-down here, only local low-end EV's are candidates for the non-cobalt technology, and we will see how that works out going forward, engine fires are apparently common.

https://www.mining.com/cobalt-nickel-free-electric-car-batteries-are-a-runaway-success/

Engine fires in ICE vehicles are so common that they don't make the news. 

Tesla doesn't make low end local range vehicles. There are certainly some teething issues as this is all very new but cobalt free batteries are now in the mainstream highway EV market in both China and Europe.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

8 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Engine fires in ICE vehicles are so common that they don't make the news. 

Tesla doesn't make low end local range vehicles. There are certainly some teething issues as this is all very new but cobalt free batteries are now in the mainstream highway EV market in both China and Europe.

They are under 1% in sales, and much less than 1% in auto stock...check out the link I gave you above, these are local low-performance vehicles, not the high-end EV's. Batteries for EV's will continue to be cobalt-based, just look at the hot demand for cobalt today. Did you bother to read the link I gave you?

The low-end nature of cobalt-free means that they are not for sale in North America.

Edited April 16, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

7 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

They are under 5% in sales, and much less than 1% in auto stock...check out the link I gave you above, these are local low-performance vehicles, not the high-end EV's. Batteries for EV;s will continue to be cobalt-based, just look at the hot demand for cobalt today. Did you bother to read the link I gave you?

I would hardly call Tesla Standard Range Model 3 to be low end local vehicles, but whatever, it is a runaway success and it just started. 

From your article:

In December, only its second full month of sales, the 55KWh LFP-battery Tesla Model 3 captured 5.9% of the global full electric car market in terms of battery capacity deployed despite not being for sale in the US, according to data supplied by Adamas Intelligence. 

Boosted by deliveries to Europe, it made up 46% of all Model 3 sales in January and an astonishing 32% (December it was 47%) of the battery capacity in all LFP-equipped cars worldwide. 

That lifted LFP’s overall share of the global battery market in terms of capacity to 18.5% in January, according to Adamas, which tracks demand for EV batteries by chemistry, cell supplier and capacity in over 90 countries.

That’s from only around 1% at the beginning of last year and 3% in June. 

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

33 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

I would hardly call Tesla Standard Range Model 3 to be low end local vehicles, but whatever, it is a runaway success and it just started. 

From your article:

In December, only its second full month of sales, the 55KWh LFP-battery Tesla Model 3 captured 5.9% of the global full electric car market in terms of battery capacity deployed despite not being for sale in the US, according to data supplied by Adamas Intelligence. 

Boosted by deliveries to Europe, it made up 46% of all Model 3 sales in January and an astonishing 32% (December it was 47%) of the battery capacity in all LFP-equipped cars worldwide. 

That lifted LFP’s overall share of the global battery market in terms of capacity to 18.5% in January, according to Adamas, which tracks demand for EV batteries by chemistry, cell supplier and capacity in over 90 countries.

That’s from only around 1% at the beginning of last year and 3% in June. 

As I pointed out "NOT for sale in U.S." or North America....there is a reason why that "NOT FOR SALE" sign is posted above the cobalt-free EV, a very good reason. Low end is the reason. Concerns about fires. That would make bad headlines in North America. 

Cobalt is hot and the price of cobalt is rising quickly due to EV demand. Why? Cobalt is the necessary ingredient to prevent overheating and fires.

Those are sales percentages in Model 3 terms, even most Model 3's are cobalt-based. Tiny tiny....

I would not drive one now, until we see the results on the road of the overheating concerns.

But hey, I live in North America, I cannot even buy one now until the results are seen in China and Europe.

The engineer's advice I linked above remains the operating model.

Edited April 16, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

A simple tripling of the lithium component cost is a very low-end possibility, if there are bottlenecks due to supply constraints, that lithium price could escalate to many times the current level. That throws off the credibility of affordable transport by battery. And what percentage of the EV battery market is lithium-based now?  Nearly all of it is conventional battery, whose components are even more supply-constrained than lithium. Realistically, you have at least TWO transitions proposed here, oil to battery, traditional battery to lithium battery. We need more information on temperature stability of these proposed new batteries, the main issue being catching on fire. Low-end battery makers could skimp on fire-safety profiles.

Again, this is not about CO2 reduction, as base source for electricity supply continues to be coal.

All EVs use Lithium batteries, with the possible exception of some used Golf carts and forklifts.

Edited April 16, 2021 by Dan Clemmensen
minor exceptioms

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

20 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

All EVs use Lithium batteries.

There is a trend away from the traditional lithium/cobalt batteries to the no-cobalt lithium battery, but that is perhaps a dead end road. Pure lithium battery is a low-end solution.

https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/21/17488626/elon-musk-cobalt-electric-vehicle-battery-science

Edited April 16, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

3 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

A simple tripling of the lithium component cost is a very low-end possibility, if there are bottlenecks due to supply constraints, that lithium price could escalate to many times the current level. That throws off the credibility of affordable transport by battery. And what percentage of the EV battery market is lithium-based now?  Nearly all of it is conventional battery, whose components are even more supply-constrained than lithium. Realistically, you have at least TWO transitions proposed here, oil to battery, traditional battery to lithium battery. We need more information on temperature stability of these proposed new batteries, the main issue being catching on fire. Low-end battery makers could skimp on fire-safety profiles.

Again, this is not about CO2 reduction, as base source for electricity supply continues to be coal.

I chose the "tripling" directly out of the Rystad report that you quoted initially. I think that tripling is too high even for the 2030 spike they predicted. The report from the mining industry analysts I posted predict a doubling, not a tripling, and I have not seen a believable report for more than a tripling. Have you?

I notice that you have shifted the conversation from lithium to cobalt and nickel: Fine. lithium and graphite are abundant, so supply and demand will fairly quickly bring their prices down even if they spike, just like the shale revolution with crude oil, except that lithium and graphite are so widely dispersed that a cartel is not possible. In addition to cobalt and nickel, you should add copper. lithium batteries cannot use aluminum, so copper is needed, even in the LFP batteries that do not need cobalt or nickel.

UPDATE: for your reference, here is the report you quoted. Note the title:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Lithium-Prices-Could-Triple-As-EV-Production-Soars.html

Edited April 17, 2021 by Dan Clemmensen
add name/URL of report.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

39 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

I chose the "tripling" directly out of the Rystad report that you quoted initially. I think that tripling is too high even for the 2030 spike they predicted. The report from the mining industry analysts I posted predict a doubling, not a tripling, and I have not seen a believable report for more than a tripling. Have you?

I notice that you have shifted the conversation from lithium to cobalt and nickel: Fine. lithium and graphite are abundant, so supply and demand will fairly quickly bring their prices down even if they spike, just like the shale revolution with crude oil, except that lithium and graphite are so widely dispersed that a cartel is not possible. In addition to cobalt and nickel, you should add copper. lithium batteries cannot use aluminum, so copper is needed, even in the LFP batteries that do not need cobalt or nickel.

UPDATE: for your reference, here is the report you quoted. Note the title:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Lithium-Prices-Could-Triple-As-EV-Production-Soars.html

"Triple" would, I think be an understatement if we expect to produce hundreds of millions of EV's. And I do not believe that the cobalt-free battery options will prove to be an acceptable replacement for higher-performing and less dangerous cobalt/lithium batteries. Copper is another input whose price may skyrocket going forward. 

All of this places mass EV ownership outside the range of the average consumer. The impoverishment of America is being proposed by the new guys in Washington.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

3 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

"Triple" would, I think be an understatement if we expect to produce hundreds of millions of EV's. And I do not believe that the cobalt-free battery options will prove to be an acceptable replacement for higher-performing and less dangerous cobalt/lithium batteries. Copper is another input whose price may skyrocket going forward. 

All of this places mass EV ownership outside the range of the average consumer. The impoverishment of America is being proposed by the new guys in Washington.

Please re-read your own reference. Rystad thinks tripling may occur in a short spike in 2030, and Rystad is assuming an extremely aggressive EV production ramp to 41 million long-range (75 KWh) EV equivalents. That is 45% of the 92-million vehicle market. But in the real world, a large percentage of the vehicle market is at the low end, so this translates to an even higher percentage of the total vehicle market.

If indeed a commodity shortage limits growth, then the price spikes will be deferred for two or three years and we won't get to Rystad's 45% until maybe 2032.

Even if we accept your unsupported assertion that batteries will be more expensive than the currently-projected $100/kWh, We are still only  talking about adding less than $2000 to the cost of the average new EV. The cost of an average new ICE in the US in January 2021 was $40,000. I don't think the 5% difference will leas to the impoverishment of America, and in fact the buyer will recover the $2000 in less than 2 years, depending on the cost of gasoline.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

6 hours ago, Boat said:

I have this theory. I know you’ll love it. These early adoption EV’s have expensive lousy batteries only the rich can afford. But 10 years from now 70% cheaper million mile batteries can replace those batteries in dent and scratch vehicles. Since EV’s have low maintenance costs and car owners like old bombs/value it should work.  
Getting to scale for electric will happen, it will just take a couple of decades.

I figured you'd be holding out for dilithium crystals. Of course that brings us back to the lithium shortage…   😜

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

2 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Please re-read your own reference. Rystad thinks tripling may occur in a short spike in 2030, and Rystad is assuming an extremely aggressive EV production ramp to 41 million long-range (75 KWh) EV equivalents. That is 45% of the 92-million vehicle market. But in the real world, a large percentage of the vehicle market is at the low end, so this translates to an even higher percentage of the total vehicle market.

If indeed a commodity shortage limits growth, then the price spikes will be deferred for two or three years and we won't get to Rystad's 45% until maybe 2032.

Even if we accept your unsupported assertion that batteries will be more expensive than the currently-projected $100/kWh, We are still only  talking about adding less than $2000 to the cost of the average new EV. The cost of an average new ICE in the US in January 2021 was $40,000. I don't think the 5% difference will leas to the impoverishment of America, and in fact the buyer will recover the $2000 in less than 2 years, depending on the cost of gasoline.

Cobalt is extremely limited and, yes, I anticipate that cobalt will be a central input in EV batteries going forward, the prices of cobalt are already taking off before even 1% of the auto stock is EV. That alone will send the EV price beyond the average budget. Likewise, copper....

Edited April 17, 2021 by Ecocharger