Simple question: What is the expected impact in electricity Demand when EV deployment exceeds 10%

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

17 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Dan, my principal point was that market demand for cobalt would cause a rapid rise in the price of cobalt and consequent rise in battery/EV prices....that point still stands, as far as I can see from all the discussion here.

Let's not get side-tracked from the main issue. Although that is a standard tactic used by some climate alarmists.

My principal point is that you continue to incorrectly generalize from NCM batteries to "all EV batteries". Using current trends, I expect that there will be a lot more EVs with LFP than with NCM, because Chinese and Europeans simply do not need the range. High-end cars will cost more and will use NCM. This all assumes that some other better chemistry does not come into production in the next ten years. GM keeps pushing their "Ultium" battery design, which somehow magically uses about half the lithium, cobalt, and nickel, apparently replacing them with fairy dust.

Your argument about a lithium shortage is much more credible, so you should probably focus on it instead of cobalt. You can also legitimately argue that copper can become a bottleneck. But for Nickel and cobalt, higher priced NCM will shift consumers to cars with LFP.

The lithium shortage will not be in mining, but in refining. The final refining stage for nearly all battery lithium done in China. unless someone invests a serious amount of capital into lithium refining and some into more mining, your shortage scenario will be compounded by a Chinese lithium OPEC-style monopoly.

[Ecocharger + 1,447]

52 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

My principal point is that you continue to incorrectly generalize from NCM batteries to "all EV batteries". Using current trends, I expect that there will be a lot more EVs with LFP than with NCM, because Chinese and Europeans simply do not need the range. High-end cars will cost more and will use NCM. This all assumes that some other better chemistry does not come into production in the next ten years. GM keeps pushing their "Ultium" battery design, which somehow magically uses about half the lithium, cobalt, and nickel, apparently replacing them with fairy dust.

Your argument about a lithium shortage is much more credible, so you should probably focus on it instead of cobalt. You can also legitimately argue that copper can become a bottleneck. But for Nickel and cobalt, higher priced NCM will shift consumers to cars with LFP.

The lithium shortage will not be in mining, but in refining. The final refining stage for nearly all battery lithium done in China. unless someone invests a serious amount of capital into lithium refining and some into more mining, your shortage scenario will be compounded by a Chinese lithium OPEC-style monopoly.

There are less than a fraction of one percent of EV's using LFP batteries, and for good reason, as seen above.

That will probably not change very much, for the reasons above.

That translates going forward into a shortage of cobalt and high prices.

Also shortages of lithium, copper, and palladium.

[Ecocharger + 1,447]

Just to maintain the point about the political impetus creating the EV momentum, here is a tribute to Earth Day.

Sure, plant a tree everyone, but do you know what is needed to grow a tree?

That's right, good old CO2, emitted by those old, dirty ICE vehicles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAxqygRdM4g&t=40s

Edited April 22, 2021 by Ecocharger

[turbguy + 1,537]

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

Just to maintain the point about the political impetus creating the EV momentum, here is a tribute to Earth Day.

Sure, plant a tree everyone, but do you know what is needed to grow a tree?

That's right, good old CO2, emitted by those old, dirty ICE vehicles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAxqygRdM4g&t=40s

Yeah, CO₂ is required.  Comes from you and I as well...

I guess it's a matter of rates of uptake, and balance of the intertwined systems.  It's seems that we are controlled by chaos at times, no?  Hard to get around that nasty second law.

Then, there's this big thing called the 'ocean' that seems to grab up the stuff, too.

Edited April 22, 2021 by turbguy

[Ecocharger + 1,447]

39 minutes ago, turbguy said:

Yeah, CO₂ is required.  Comes from you and I as well...

I guess it's a matter of rates of uptake, and balance of the intertwined systems.  It's seems that we are controlled by chaos at times, no?  Hard to get around that nasty second law.

Then, there's this big thing called the 'ocean' that seems to grab up the stuff, too.

No need to worry, if the Prez gets his way, and atmospheric CO2 falls low enough, agricultural productivity will decline precipitously, famines will cause depopulation (which many climate activists are calling for as the ultimate solution), and the problem will solve itself. Amazing how easy it is to solve problems when there are fewer mouths to feed, that one answer seems to fix everything.

Of course there would be no problems at all without any population.....hmm. I better get on the phone to the White House and offer advice to the Big Guy.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

12 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

There are less than a fraction of one percent of EV's using LFP batteries, and for good reason, as seen above.

That will probably not change very much, for the reasons above.

That translates going forward into a shortage of cobalt and high prices.

Also shortages of lithium, copper, and palladium.

Penn State team develops thermally modulated LFP battery; fast-charging, inexpensive, long-life for mass-market EVs

19 January 2021

A team of Penn State engineers has demonstrated a thermally modulated lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery to offer an adequate cruise range per charge that is extendable by a 10-minute recharge in all climates, essentially guaranteeing EVs that are free of range anxiety.

Such a thermally modulated LFP battery—designed to operate at a working temperature around 60 °C in any ambient condition—could support a well-rounded solution for mass-market EVs, the researchers said. Furthermore, they found that the limited working time at the high temperature presents an opportunity to use graphite of low surface areas, thereby prospectively prolonging the EV lifespan to greater than two million miles.

A paper on their work is published in Nature Energy.

We developed a pretty clever battery for mass-market electric vehicles with cost parity with combustion engine vehicles. There is no more range anxiety and this battery is affordable.

—Professor Chao-Yang Wang, corresponding author

 

The researchers said that the key to long-life and rapid recharging is the battery’s ability to heat up quickly to 60 ˚C for charge and discharge, and then cool down when the battery is not working.

The very fast charge allows us to downsize the battery without incurring range anxiety.

—Professor Wang

 

The battery uses a self-heating approach previously developed in Wang’s center. The self-heating battery uses a thin nickel foil with one end attached to the negative terminal and the other extending outside the cell to create a third terminal. Once electrons flow it rapidly heats up the nickel foil through resistance heating and warm the inside of the battery. Once the battery’s internal temperature is 60 ˚C, the switch opens and the battery is ready for rapid charge or discharge

Wang’s team modeled this battery using existing technologies and innovative approaches. They suggest that with this self-heating method, they can use low-cost materials for the battery’s cathode and anode and a safe, low-voltage electrolyte. The cathode is thermally stable, lithium iron phosphate, which does not contain any of the expensive and critical materials such as cobalt. The anode is made of very large particle graphite, a safe, light and inexpensive material.

Because of the self-heating, the researchers said they do not have to worry about uneven deposition of lithium on the anode, which can cause lithium dendrites that are dangerous.

This battery has reduced weight, volume and cost. I am very happy that we finally found a battery that will benefit the mainstream consumer mass market.

—Professor Wang

 

According to Wang, these smaller batteries can produce a large amount of power upon heating—40 kWh and 300 kW of power. An electric vehicle with this battery could go from zero to 60 miles per hour in 3 seconds and would drive like a Porsche, he said.

Other Penn State researchers working on this project were Xiao-Guang Yang, assistant research professor of mechanical engineering, and Teng Liu, doctoral student in mechanical engineering.

The US Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy and the William E Diefenderfer Endowment supported this research.

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2021/01/20210119-psu.html

Edited April 23, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

18 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

You can also charge an LFP all the way to 100% repeatedly without reducing battery life,

Not true at all. LFP and NMC do NOT like to be charged to 100% and why they MUST have a battery management system.  If you charge them full up you will kill them and why many fires were started in early days of lithium. There is zero battery chemistry existing that I am aware of that you can use 100% of its capacity without reducing battery life massively.  Lithium do not like to be fully charged, but can go very low without much damage.  Lead acid, nickel metal hydride, or nickel cadmium MUST be fully charged at some point or all of the time to top balance them, but do not like to go low or be held low at all and why they suck.  There are exceptions when the anode is changed out to Graphite and then they can stay low indefinitely, but not exactly all that low as the voltage rolls off fast. 

LFP/NMC: Rule of thumb baring any advancements/cost cutting in the Anode of course so...

"100%" discharge you get ~ 2000->4000 cycles depending on number of cells in said configuration.

50% discharge jumps it up past 8000

30% ~ 12,000

15% or less = 20,000+

NMC is nearly identical to LFP as a rule of thumb

NMg is roughly as low as 1000 cycles, some claim 2000 cycles on a single cell.  Roughly half that of LFP/NMC

Now throw in that the batteries lose capacity per year just sitting in Lithium chemistries, so use it or lose it. Just in case anyone thinks there will be museum pieces which will still drive in 100 years simply because the battery has not been used as you were eyeing that 20,000 cycles....

Edited April 23, 2021 by footeab@yahoo.com

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

16 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

There are less than a fraction of one percent of EV's using LFP batteries, and for good reason, as seen above.

That will probably not change very much, for the reasons above.

That translates going forward into a shortage of cobalt and high prices.

Also shortages of lithium, copper, and palladium.

Actually: depending on what you call an EV, majority of "cars" sold in China are LFP.  China sells hundreds of thousands of glorified golf carts and call them "EV's" and use them in their EV tally.....   At least they were 2 years ago when I last read an article when China was touting their "million" EV's.  If I could pull up the article for a link I would, but I can't sorry.  I tried. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

17 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Just to maintain the point about the political impetus creating the EV momentum, here is a tribute to Earth Day.

Sure, plant a tree everyone, but do you know what is needed to grow a tree?

That's right, good old CO2, emitted by those old, dirty ICE vehicles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAxqygRdM4g&t=40s

I like linking to CO2science.org on earth day.... most veggies grow twice as fast using less water and minerals.   Majority of your grains grow 25% faster using less water/fertilizer doing so with 600ppm CO2.  10% of the increase in Corn, Wheat, Sugarcane, Rice yield achieved in 20th century is due to increase in CO2... Lets see, 7 Billion going to 8 Billion-->10 Billion... lets cut try scrubbing the atmosphere of CO2 dropping Yields... uh Ok

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

2 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Actually: depending on what you call an EV, majority of "cars" sold in China are LFP.  China sells hundreds of thousands of glorified golf carts and call them "EV's" and use them in their EV tally.....   At least they were 2 years ago when I last read an article when China was touting their "million" EV's.  If I could pull up the article for a link I would, but I can't sorry.  I tried. 

LFP is rapidly moving up the supply chain:

Here is the new Xpeng LFP golf cart, slightly better range than the Tesla LFP

https://www.futurecar.com/4463/Chinas-Tesla-Challenger-Xpeng-Launches-3-New-EV-Variants-Powered-by-Cobalt-free-Lithium-Iron-Phosphate-(LFP)-Batteries

Although they are selling golf carts by the bucket load. 100kph 100 miles $4000 and made in partnership with GM

 

_______________________________________

 

LFP’s overall share of the global battery market in terms of capacity to 18.5% in January (1/3rd of which was Tesla LFP), according to Adamas, which tracks demand for EV batteries by chemistry, cell supplier and capacity in over 90 countries.

That’s from only around 1% at the beginning of last year and 3% in June. 

https://www.mining.com/cobalt-nickel-free-electric-car-batteries-are-a-runaway-success/

 

 

Edited April 23, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Ecocharger + 1,447]

4 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Actually: depending on what you call an EV, majority of "cars" sold in China are LFP.  China sells hundreds of thousands of glorified golf carts and call them "EV's" and use them in their EV tally.....   At least they were 2 years ago when I last read an article when China was touting their "million" EV's.  If I could pull up the article for a link I would, but I can't sorry.  I tried. 

Thanks for the heads-up. We always have to be wary of numbers which may be manipulated for commercial or ideological reasons.

I suspect that only a tiny percentage of the EXISTING total stock of EV's world-wide are LFP, and the the other 99._% which use cobalt will not be disappearing from the existing stock on the road or from salesrooms in a short period of time.

[Ecocharger + 1,447]

4 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

I like linking to CO2science.org on earth day.... most veggies grow twice as fast using less water and minerals.   Majority of your grains grow 25% faster using less water/fertilizer doing so with 600ppm CO2.  10% of the increase in Corn, Wheat, Sugarcane, Rice yield achieved in 20th century is due to increase in CO2... Lets see, 7 Billion going to 8 Billion-->10 Billion... lets cut try scrubbing the atmosphere of CO2 dropping Yields... uh Ok

If we drain the atmosphere of CO2, humanity will starve in a very short time.  But I guess depopulation is a favorite goal of the Green Army anyway, so that must be okay.

The new mantras for the Green Brigade are DE-GROWTH and DEPOPULATION.

Or "LEARN TO LOVE POVERTY'.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

3 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Thanks for the heads-up. We always have to be wary of numbers which may be manipulated for commercial or ideological reasons.

I suspect that only a tiny percentage of the EXISTING total stock of EV's world-wide are LFP, and the the other 99._% which use cobalt will not be disappearing from the existing stock on the road or from salesrooms in a short period of time.

Uh, backwards actually.  Old LFP had a 120Wh/kg and new LFP are sitting at 180Wh/kg which is 25% lower than NMC and why they can now be used in cars as NMC/NMg are ~225Wh/kg + packaging problems and here LFP are actually a bit better allowing MUCH larger flat square cells instead of small round cells due to fire concerns.  I believe TESLA is getting around fire concerns with their larger NMC cells by making a fully wet battery for cooling purposes.  Extra weight, but cooling is becoming an ever bigger concern for longevity and helps solve the fire problem. 2 birdies, 1 stone.  LFP does not need the fully wet battery, and does need to be warmed, so will probably try to get away with just air to bypass galvanic corrosion of stray electric currents from said heater.  Of course how well it will cool said giant cells is somewhere below dubious which will ultimately limit performance for regenerative braking massively and acceleration of course, but also for any applications larger than very lightweight vehicles.

Vast majority of EV's are LiNMg, not LiNMC.  Same is true for cell phones.  Cheaper as well.  Yea yea, some cell phones go with NMC in their high end models.  Any cheap cell phone? AKA, vast majority; no.

[Ecocharger + 1,447]

It looks like China is dramatically increasing coal production to feed the EV boom.

Despite the long-term pledges, Chinese increases in coal production overwhelms the reductions in coal production by all other nations.

The carbon footprint of the EV transition is probably larger than the conventional ICE. 

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Pledges-To-Start-Cutting-Coal-Consumption-In-2026-2030.html

Edited April 24, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

4 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

The carbon footprint of the EV transition is probably larger than the conventional ICE. 

 

Begs the question - if that is true then why aren't you a huge EV fan?

It is almost as if you know that it is not true..hmmm

Edited April 24, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Ecocharger + 1,447]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Begs the question - if that is true then why aren't you a huge EV fan?

It is almost as if you know that it is not true..hmmm

I am simply pointing out the absurdity of the EV revolution...there are many more absurdities to it as well.

[RichieRich216 + 454]

Said before, SCREWED BLUE, China and India let alone smaller Countries just getting into oil discoveries are going to say to the United States, Fuck You and laugh at the stupidity of these Greenies and Wild Liberals, in the end the United States Consumer will be ass raped YET AGAIN....Putin’s already laughing his ass off hourly, What he couldn’t do in the 80’s to unravel the United States Economy, a brain dead joke and his nappy haired VP are doing his bidding! 

[Ecocharger + 1,447]

The EV revolution is having more than a little trouble blasting off from the launching pad,

"Today, only 1% of total search share on Cars.com is for EVs."

That's it in a nutshell.

No one is interested, and that is a problem.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

6 hours ago, RichieRich216 said:

Said before, SCREWED BLUE, China and India let alone smaller Countries just getting into oil discoveries are going to say to the United States, Fuck You and laugh at the stupidity of these Greenies and Wild Liberals, in the end the United States Consumer will be ass raped YET AGAIN....Putin’s already laughing his ass off hourly, What he couldn’t do in the 80’s to unravel the United States Economy, a brain dead joke and his nappy haired VP are doing his bidding! 

Thailand just banned ICE sales after 2035.

China plug in ev sales passed 10% last month.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

8 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

The EV revolution is having more than a little trouble blasting off from the launching pad,

"Today, only 1% of total search share on Cars.com is for EVs."

That's it in a nutshell.

No one is interested, and that is a problem.

Or if you wanted to be honest you could quote this part of the article:

Some 66 percent of Americans are interested in electric cars thanks to the generous investment plan of the Biden administration for boosting EV adoption, a survey by marketplace Cars.com has revealed.

[Boat + 1,323]

21 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

It looks like China is dramatically increasing coal production to feed the EV boom.

Despite the long-term pledges, Chinese increases in coal production overwhelms the reductions in coal production by all other nations.

The carbon footprint of the EV transition is probably larger than the conventional ICE. 

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Pledges-To-Start-Cutting-Coal-Consumption-In-2026-2030.html

Your one of the click-bate kings of spin even though there is competition. Some would say considering Chinas growth in GDP, population, and industrial mite they have done a great job. While not rich by West standards they have pulled hundreds of millions out of poverty.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/01/coal-demand-asia-decarbonize-emissions/

 

 

[Ecocharger + 1,447]

6 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Or if you wanted to be honest you could quote this part of the article:

Some 66 percent of Americans are interested in electric cars thanks to the generous investment plan of the Biden administration for boosting EV adoption, a survey by marketplace Cars.com has revealed.

I did refer to that part of the article, Jay. Check again.

I am interested in skateboards, but I am not looking to buy one.

[Ecocharger + 1,447]

2 hours ago, Boat said:

Your one of the click-bate kings of spin even though there is competition. Some would say considering Chinas growth in GDP, population, and industrial mite they have done a great job. While not rich by West standards they have pulled hundreds of millions out of poverty.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/01/coal-demand-asia-decarbonize-emissions/

 

 

We have been over that a few times with you....all that counts is the direction of carbon footprints. China is rapidly increasing coal production to a great height in the future.

[RichieRich216 + 454]

Anyone that believes 66% of Americans are interested in EV are fools of the Media! 
 

Just because someone says it doesn’t make it true! That is the underlying problem in America today, The “MEDIA” has given up its “unbiased” reporting and has pick a side! 
 

if 66% of Americans are interested in it Wall Street would be going in a major redirection and it would be obvious! Just like Cash for Clunkers this is a boondoggle....

We will never Tranfer away from fossil fuels, too cheap and too many Countries count on them as the driving force to keep there Countries afloat.

[surrept33 + 609]

On 4/23/2021 at 5:10 AM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Actually: depending on what you call an EV, majority of "cars" sold in China are LFP.  China sells hundreds of thousands of glorified golf carts and call them "EV's" and use them in their EV tally.....   At least they were 2 years ago when I last read an article when China was touting their "million" EV's.  If I could pull up the article for a link I would, but I can't sorry.  I tried. 

There is no reason to not call those EVs.  If you are driving a car in a dense urban place, especially in Asia, a small LFP car is probably what you want. That will also inevitably be the largest growth market in the world.