Simple question: What is the expected impact in electricity Demand when EV deployment exceeds 10%

[Boat + 1,323]

One you-tuber predicts 9 million Tesla vehicles in 2025-2026. Total per year. The key will be the talked about but not announced 2023 new plant where the entire front, back and battery section will be a 1 piece injection. He projects 4 million cars per year out of one plant. So he’s assuming the other 4 plants will produce the other 5 million.

Edited April 19, 2021 by Boat

[Ecocharger + 1,470]

7 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The subject was electric vehicles not climate change and you are clueless about EV's. 

btw- coal is now the number 3 source of electricity in the USA

but of course if you are just a proponent of more CO2 then you should be a huge EV fan if you think they are coal cars. something just doesn't add up....hmmm.....

Usually the biggest boosters of EV's are those who drive the old gas-guzzling SUV's, like that classic picture of a well-known green activist sitting in a oil-using SUV eating food from an oil-derived plastic bag. By the way, how is your new version EV working for you?

Climate change is the driving force for EV policy, so they are related.

More CO2 is a boost for greening the planet.

Edited April 19, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

7 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Interesting, but in China how much CO2 is actually being displaced? I suspect that the carbon footprint for these vehicles is probably above the equivalent ICE.

China initially went to EV buses to cut down air pollution in their cities, just as California initially pushed gas mileage and later EVs. It was not about CO2 reduction. it was about mitigating pollution in the worst-polluted cities in the world. This exported the pollution to far-away coal plants, but it also now lets us replace those coal plants with renewables. China is not starting any new coal projects, but they are adding wind and solar on a much larger scale than the rest of the world. The electricity for those buses is now mostly not coal and has not been mostly coal for at least five years. California does not (directly) use any coal at all. We generate 70% of our electricity and import the rest, and less than half the imported electricity comes from coal. For the US as a whole, less than 25% of electricity comes from coal.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

6 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Usually the biggest boosters of EV's are those who drive the old gas-guzzling SUV's, like that classic picture of a well-known green activist sitting in a oil-using SUV eating food from an oil-derived plastic bag. By the way, how is your new version EV working for you?

Climate change is the driving force for EV policy, so they are related.

More CO2 is a boost for greening the planet.

As Dan pointed out above the driving force behind EV's has been clean air. That is the reason I am a supporter. California didn't tack on green house gas emissions as part of its goals for many years after starting its zero emissions vehicle program.

It is ridiculous to say that because you think you know something about climate change that you also know about EVs. 

Edited April 19, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Ecocharger + 1,470]

7 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

China initially went to EV buses to cut down air pollution in their cities, just as California initially pushed gas mileage and later EVs. It was not about CO2 reduction. it was about mitigating pollution in the worst-polluted cities in the world. This exported the pollution to far-away coal plants, but it also now lets us replace those coal plants with renewables. China is not starting any new coal projects, but they are adding wind and solar on a much larger scale than the rest of the world. The electricity for those buses is now mostly not coal and has not been mostly coal for at least five years. California does not (directly) use any coal at all. We generate 70% of our electricity and import the rest, and less than half the imported electricity comes from coal. For the US as a whole, less than 25% of electricity comes from coal.

Who is "us"? You or the Chinese dictator? It looks like the Chinese have decided to dramatically increase coal production to feed the EV's. Check the numbers again.

[Ecocharger + 1,470]

2 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

As Dan pointed out above the driving force behind EV's has been clean air. That is the reason I am a supporter. California didn't tack on green house gas emissions as part of its goals for many years after starting its zero emissions vehicle program.

It is ridiculous to say that because you think you know something about climate change that you also know about EVs. 

Ah, there was a little question in my post above...how are you enjoying your latest EV? How does it compare to your ICE purchases in terms of performance, convenience, practicality?  I didn't see your reply to this question in your response.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

3 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Who is "us"? You or the Chinese dictator? It looks like the Chinese have decided to dramatically increase coal production to feed the EV's. Check the numbers again.

Sorry. "We"  are the residents of the state of California:

https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/commodities/energy

 

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

6 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Who is "us"? You or the Chinese dictator? It looks like the Chinese have decided to dramatically increase coal production to feed the EV's. Check the numbers again.

The Chinese are dramatically increasing their total electrical generation to feed their economy. They expanded renewables far more than coal. They also brought more new coal generation online last year than the entire rest of the world, but it was a lot less than the renewables. They are not starting any new coal plants. Last year's new plants were already in the building phase.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/what-is-going-on-with-chinas-crazy-clean-energy-installation-figures

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

10 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

The Chinese are dramatically increasing their total electrical generation to feed their economy. They expanded renewables far more than coal. They also brought more new coal generation online last year than the entire rest of the world, but it was a lot less than the renewables. They are not starting any new coal plants. Last year's new plants were already in the building phase.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/what-is-going-on-with-chinas-crazy-clean-energy-installation-figures

 Can you ease up on the HYPERBOLE.....plzz of course.

China's new coal power plant capacity in 2020 more than 3 times rest of world's - study

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-new-coal-power-plant-capacity-2020-more-than-3-times-rest-worlds-study-2021-02-03/

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

9 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Ah, there was a little question in my post above...how are you enjoying your latest EV? How does it compare to your ICE purchases in terms of performance, convenience, practicality?  I didn't see your reply to this question in your response.

I don't know about Jay, but I am enjoying my latest EV (a Tesla Model Y) a whole lot now that I have my COVID vaccinations and I can actually go anywhere. Plenty of range, and an extensive network of SuperCharger stations, so it is trivial to find one for the very few times I need it. It is far more convenient than the 2014 BMW i3 I drove for six years. My main problem with EVs is that the acceleration is so high and the handling is so good that I tend to drive too fast and too aggressively. Compared to an ICE, the purchase experience is far superior: Tesla delivers the car to my house. This was the most pleasant car purchase experience I ever had. I never go to the "dealer" for periodic service, and I never go to a gas station, so my daily experience is also far superior to an ICE. I only use a Supercharger on long trips, and I pick one near a restaurant, so the overall Supercharger experience is about like a gasoline stop on a long trip.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

30 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

 Can you ease up on the HYPERBOLE.....plzz of course.

China's new coal power plant capacity in 2020 more than 3 times rest of world's - study

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-new-coal-power-plant-capacity-2020-more-than-3-times-rest-worlds-study-2021-02-03/

To quote "the Princess bride": "I do not think that word means what you think it means". "Hyperbole" is gross over-exaggeration for effect. The concept extends to things like using all caps and bold large-font headlines in posts.

Yes, I knew the Chinese completed a lot more than anyone else in 2020. Everyone else shut down due to COVID, so in absolute terms it was not that much new coal capacity. The aggressive literally totalitarian Chinese lockdown in February effectively suppressed COVID there and allowed them to complete their projects. I would not want to live in a country that completely suppresses individual liberty like that, but in this one instance it worked for them. It's going to catch up to them later, e.g. when the demographics of the "one child" policy works its way up the age distribution.

I am worried by the Chinese aggressive economic warfare which among other things means they are currently the only major refiner for battery material and some other material like REEs. The material (lithium and cobalt, and REEs) gets mined and first-level process in many different places, but then it is sent to China to be purified. We are essentially permitting China to become the OPEC of batteries.

[Ecocharger + 1,470]

1 hour ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Sorry. "We"  are the residents of the state of California:

https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/commodities/energy

 

That's fine for the folks in California, I have a horde of good cousins in that state, fine people.

But China is a little more populous than California, and is ramping up its coal production by leaps and bounds to feed the EV growth.

[Ecocharger + 1,470]

52 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

I don't know about Jay, but I am enjoying my latest EV (a Tesla Model Y) a whole lot now that I have my COVID vaccinations and I can actually go anywhere. Plenty of range, and an extensive network of SuperCharger stations, so it is trivial to find one for the very few times I need it. It is far more convenient than the 2014 BMW i3 I drove for six years. My main problem with EVs is that the acceleration is so high and the handling is so good that I tend to drive too fast and too aggressively. Compared to an ICE, the purchase experience is far superior: Tesla delivers the car to my house. This was the most pleasant car purchase experience I ever had. I never go to the "dealer" for periodic service, and I never go to a gas station, so my daily experience is also far superior to an ICE. I only use a Supercharger on long trips, and I pick one near a restaurant, so the overall Supercharger experience is about like a gasoline stop on a long trip.

Thanks, Jay...oh, er, Dan. But I was thinking along different lines here, I was concerned that Jay was another of those climate alarmists who talk the talk, who decry the ICE as a threat to humanity, and then jump into their old-model gas-guzzling SUV and destroy the planet with their massive consumption of good old gasoline and oil. Say it ain't so, Jay. Or am I going to lose all my faith in the Green Agitators?

Edited April 19, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

7 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Thanks, Jay...oh, er, Dan. But I was thinking along different lines here, I was concerned that Jay was another of those climate alarmists who talk the talk, who decry the ICE as a threat to humanity, and then jump into their old-model gas-guzzling SUV and destroy the planet with their massive consumption of good old gasoline and oil. Say it ain't so, Jay. Or am I going to lose all my faith in the Green Agitators?

I don't own an SUV, just an old BMW, electric is next. I support EVs because of the California SMOG, which I unfortunately still contribute to, their superior driving experience and my desire to see the geopolitics of oil upended. But I imagine that that won't be good enough for you. 

Regardless, every claim you have made about EV's has been shown to be wrong, the fact that I haven't been able to get the car I want yet is completely irrelevant. You are just trying to shift the conversation away from the fact that you were wrong about everything. Sorry but my still driving an ICE does not make your assertions true or in anyway validate your position. 

But let's turn this around. Have you ever driven an electric car? I bet not otherwise you would still be grinning from that instant torque response and the fun of whipping past ICE cars on twisty two lanes. (I drive my friend's electric when I can.)

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

1 hour ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

To quote "the Princess bride": "I do not think that word means what you think it means". "Hyperbole" is gross over-exaggeration for effect. The concept extends to things like using all caps and bold large-font headlines in posts.

Yes, I knew the Chinese completed a lot more than anyone else in 2020. Everyone else shut down due to COVID, so in absolute terms it was not that much new coal capacity. The aggressive literally totalitarian Chinese lockdown in February effectively suppressed COVID there and allowed them to complete their projects. I would not want to live in a country that completely suppresses individual liberty like that, but in this one instance it worked for them. It's going to catch up to them later, e.g. when the demographics of the "one child" policy works its way up the age distribution.

I am worried by the Chinese aggressive economic warfare which among other things means they are currently the only major refiner for battery material and some other material like REEs. The material (lithium and cobalt, and REEs) gets mined and first-level process in many different places, but then it is sent to China to be purified. We are essentially permitting China to become the OPEC of batteries.

The Chinese are dramatically increasing their total electrical generation to feed their economy.

They expanded renewables far more than coal.

Hyperbole for kids: Hyperbole is when you use language to exaggerate what you mean or emphasize a point. It’s often used to make something sound much bigger and better than it actually is or to make something sound much more dramatic. Hyperbole is a figure   of speech.

https://kidskonnect.com/language/hyperbole-examples/#:~:text=Hyperbole is when you use,is a figure of speech.

 

China commissioned 38.4 gigawatts (GW) of new coal plants in 2020, offsetting the record-tying 37.8 GW of coal capacity retired last year, the report showed.

 

China’s coal boom accounted for 76 percent of the global 50.3 GW new coal capacity. Globally, commissioning of new plants plunged by 34 percent annually in 2020 due to difficulties obtaining financing and delays due to the pandemic.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Started-More-Coal-Plants-Than-The-Entire-World-Retired-In-2020.html#:~:text=China commissioned 38.4 gigawatts (GW,50.3 GW new coal capacity.

 

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/what-is-going-on-with-chinas-crazy-clean-energy-installation-figures

The apparent magnitude of China’s 2020 renewables build-out puts observers in a bind. “Even though we don’t have conclusive evidence to say the government is not telling the truth, it’s just not possible,” said Luan. 

Not only are the Chinese figures outrageous by comparison to other markets and China’s own historical records, but they do not match up to observations on the ground. 

A team of central government environmental inspectors delivered a scathing assessment of China's energy regulator last Friday, accusing officials of planning failures and focusing too much on guaranteeing energy supply. read more

Yours truly

The Princess Bride....

 

 

Edited April 20, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

11 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

California does not (directly) use any coal at all. We generate 70% of our electricity and import the rest, and less than half the imported electricity comes from coal. For the US as a whole, less than 25% of electricity comes from coal.

Compare and contrast with Norway, which exports a third of their (mostly hydro) power. They have plenty of room to encourage additional EV consumption. California doesn't. Meanwhile of that 30% kalifornistan imports, 80% comes from Washington State, which has just passed legislation outlawing ICE vehicles ahead of kalifornistan's schedule. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

2 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

I would not want to live in a country that completely suppresses individual liberty like that

You already do

[Ecocharger + 1,470]

2 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

I don't own an SUV, just an old BMW, electric is next. I support EVs because of the California SMOG, which I unfortunately still contribute to, their superior driving experience and my desire to see the geopolitics of oil upended. But I imagine that that won't be good enough for you. 

Regardless, every claim you have made about EV's has been shown to be wrong, the fact that I haven't been able to get the car I want yet is completely irrelevant. You are just trying to shift the conversation away from the fact that you were wrong about everything. Sorry but my still driving an ICE does not make your assertions true or in anyway validate your position. 

But let's turn this around. Have you ever driven an electric car? I bet not otherwise you would still be grinning from that instant torque response and the fun of whipping past ICE cars on twisty two lanes. (I drive my friend's electric when I can.)

I have never promoted an EV idea or model, so why would I buy one? Jay, I am really disturbed by so many green agitators yelling about how the ICE is destroying the planet and then they jump into their BMW or SUV and turn the ignition key, and destroy the planet themselves...there is something funny about that picture. Maybe they don't really believe that they are destroying the planet, in spite of their hysterical proclamations? I guess that must be it.

Edited April 20, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

14 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Compare and contrast with Norway, which exports a third of their (mostly hydro) power. They have plenty of room to encourage additional EV consumption. California doesn't. Meanwhile of that 30% kalifornistan imports, 80% comes from Washington State, which has just passed legislation outlawing ICE vehicles ahead of kalifornistan's schedule. 

California imports energy in the form of petroleum, natural gas, and electricity. We produce some of each within the state. The electricity is the smallest import and petroleum is the largest. We are adding renewables+battery, which will reduce the electricity imports. We will then start on reducing the petroleum by using EVs, and finally begin reducing the NG, first the NG used to generate electricity and then the NG used for heating. This is my own analysis and I could be wrong. I base it on my perception of the economics, independent of any reduction of CO2.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

53 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

I have never promoted an EV idea or model, so why would I buy one? Jay, I am really disturbed by so many green agitators yelling about how the ICE is destroying the planet and then they jump into their BMW or SUV and turn the ignition key, and destroy the planet themselves...there is something funny about that picture. Maybe they don't really believe that they are destroying the planet, in spite of their hysterical proclamations? I guess that must be it.

Yes, you are clearly disturbed. It is very evident in how you make claims about a technology that you have zero understanding of.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

Compare and contrast with Norway, which exports a third of their (mostly hydro) power. They have plenty of room to encourage additional EV consumption. California doesn't. Meanwhile of that 30% kalifornistan imports, 80% comes from Washington State, which has just passed legislation outlawing ICE vehicles ahead of kalifornistan's schedule. 

And why exactly is importing electricity from other states a problem? We are all in the same country. Looking forward to that new HVDC line from Wyoming so we can import more. 

And congrats on the new EV legislation.

 

Edited April 20, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[nsdp + 449]

On 4/8/2021 at 5:13 PM, RichieRich216 said:

THE GRID CRASHES, because all the stupid greenies didn’t think that far in advance......

 No the grid crashes because utilities and their fossil brethren like you don't know how or refuse to engineer the  grid to maximize synchronous stability. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/73476.pdf.  They are too busy  having three martini lunches to design their way out of the box.

Germany doesn't have the significant problems that we do because they do this: 

https://www.ptd.siemens.de/article_1411.pdf  and to balance load swings this: German Tech Giant Places Major Bet On Green Hydrogen https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/German-Tech-Giant-Places-Major-Bet-On-Green-Hydrogen.html 

I realize 3 months is a long time to expect super posters here to remember anything beyond their stage name.   The US got to the moon first ,  BUT HAD TO IMPORT GERMAN ENGINEERS TO DO IT, Germany has already solved the grid variations problem.  When are you guys going to see the BIG PICTURE and realize it is a problem any third grader in Germany can solve. 

Mein Vater war ein Wandersmann Und mir steckt's auch im Blut; Drum wandr' ich froh so lang ich kann Und schwenke meinen Hut.

Edited April 20, 2021 by nsdp
forgot link

[nsdp + 449]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

And why exactly is importing electricity from other states a problem? We are all in the same country. Looking forward to that new HVDC line from Wyoming so we can import more. 

And congrats on the new EV legislation.

 

Doing it the smart way.  Way  beyond the double digit mental capacity of most posters here. In Utah, Hydrogen And A Massive Salt Dome Are Winning The West For Renewable Energy https://www.forbes.com/sites/mitsubishiheavyindustries/2020/03/13/in-utah-hydrogen-and-a-massive-salt-dome-are-winning-the-west-for-renewable-energy/?sh=47cb51875c52

[turbguy + 1,543]

1 hour ago, nsdp said:

 No the grid crashes because utilities and their fossil brethren like you don't know how or refuse to engineer the  grid to maximize synchronous stability. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/73476.pdf.

Germany doesn't have the significant problems that we do because they do this: 

Power electronics to the rescue. 

Eventually, these systems will mimic rotating generation, but will respond MUCH faster.

...and no moving parts, or lube oil.

Edited April 20, 2021 by turbguy

[turbguy + 1,543]

1 hour ago, nsdp said:

Doing it the smart way.  Way  beyond the double digit mental capacity of most posters here. In Utah, Hydrogen And A Massive Salt Dome Are Winning The West For Renewable Energy https://www.forbes.com/sites/mitsubishiheavyindustries/2020/03/13/in-utah-hydrogen-and-a-massive-salt-dome-are-winning-the-west-for-renewable-energy/?sh=47cb51875c52

I wonder if they will store the O² as well, and use that as inlet gas oxidizer to the CT...gotta be careful about the electrolyte.

Can we eliminate that damn compressor section (thinking out loud)?  No NOx to deal with.

Would also work OK in a recip.

There was to be a CAES system installed in a similar geologic formation near Norton, OH.  Until it was realized the initial air charge would consume the full output of a 650 MW plant for almost 12 months, and you'd never get it all back.

Edited April 20, 2021 by turbguy