Roch + 537 DR April 5, 2021 (edited) Take any oil analysis from Goldman with a grain of salt. They have an agenda and want to remain the preferred Banker for future Saudi endeavors: (1) Saudis talking about a real secondary Aramco stock offering in a real exchange. (2) Saudis, with the full backing of Aramco, Saibic, and the Sovereign wealth fund will make full effort to jumpstart Vision 2030 and City of Future NEOM (3) Major economic diversification imperative to commence in earnest. ALL OF THESE INITIATIVES WOULD PROVIDE TEN'S OF BILLIONS IN INVESTMENT BANKER FEES. GOLDMAN WANTS TO REMAIN FIRST IN LINE. The Saudis can't finance this on their own. Saudis are depending on Goldman to convince the investment world that it's OK to invest in Saudi Arabia even though they (1) live in a precarious Economic (diminishing oil industry) (2) operate in a very unstable geopolitical environment and (3) Saudi Arabia in an autocratic Theocracy ruled by the bin Salman monarchy. Not everyone's idea of a low risk profitable investment. Talking about demand while Covid oil demand is still down 5 to 8 mm bbl/day does not hold much weight. An end of Covid demand spike will come and increase prices. Has that price increase already been priced in the market ? Either way I don't think these higher prices in the $60's and $70 bbl are sustainable. Edited April 5, 2021 by Roch Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Roch + 537 DR April 5, 2021 (edited) 41 minutes ago, Roch said: Take any oil analysis from Goldman with a grain of salt. They have an agenda and want and want to remain the main Banker for future Saudi endeavors: (1) Saudis talking about a real secondary Aramco stock offering in a real exchange. (2) Saudis, with the full backing of Aramco, Sabic, and Sovereign wealth fund will make full effort to jumpstart Vision 2030 and City of Future NEOM (3) Major economic diversification program to commence. ALL OF THESE INITIATIVES WOULD PROVIDE TEN'S OF BILLIONS IN INVESTMENT BANKER FEES. GOLDMAN WANTS TO REMAIN FIRST IN LINE. The Saudis can't finance this on their own. Saudis are depending on Goldman to convince the investment world that it's OK to invest in Saudi Arabia even though they (1) live in a precarious Economic (diminishing oil industry) (2) operate in a very unstable geopolitical environment and (3) Saudi Arabia in an autocratic Theocracy ruled by the bin Salman monarchy. Not everyone's idea of a low risk profitable investment. Good article from Oil Price Irina Slav https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Forget-OPEC-Production-Cuts-Its-Exports-That-Matter.html The OPEC "Production Cut" agreement is a farce. It's the Exports dummy. OPEC should be called SaudiPEC. Saudi/Aramco have been playing this game from the beginning. No other OPEC member has even a fraction of the oil storage capacity of Saudi Arabia either domestically in their country or internationally (Rotterdam, South Africa, Asia/China, Motivated USA) Saudi Arabia fills their oil storage to the brim around the world . . . . then calls for a OPEC-WIDE production cuts. Then the oil market knee-jerk reaction bids up the price per bbl. When storage volume starts to wain the Saudis call for ending the production cuts and refill. If you read the now public Aramco Financial Statements you will see their yearly volume of oil sold does not vary with or without production cuts. It's all "smoke and mirrors" They will continue to pursue strategy in attempt to diversify economy before oil revenue drops in half. The rest of OPEC is helpless. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Forget-OPEC-Production-Cuts-Its-Exports-That-Matter.html Edited April 5, 2021 by Roch Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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