GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

20 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

It will decrease when subsidies are removed and electric vehicles and infrastructure, and also pay for their use of the roads and freeways.

Here is another factor, chip production https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/11/29/electric-vehicles-semiconductors-chips-act/

U.S. will miss electric-vehicle targets without big investments in semiconductor manufacturing,

EVs don;t even need subsidies today. Tesla has insane demand with absolutely insane vehicle margins yet they get no buyer subsidy.

We certainly should invest in domestic fabs but the headline is BS. The chip shortage is for old fashioned chips used in legacy ICE that fabs didn't want to make anymore. Fabs scrapped the production lines when ICE companies canceled their orders last year. There is a reason that EV sales have gone up while ICE sales went down. EVs use modern chips.

Edited December 4, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

It's not entirely 'hype' or PR.  The processes used for exploiting oil shale are an extrapolation of the ones used for 'normal' wells, but figuring out quite how to do it efficiently enough to be worthwhile is a major engineering challenge.  As a petroleum engineer who has done work on all sorts of operations, when I first got involved in gas, and oil shales I thought it would be pretty straightforward, but it actually isn't.  A lot of different kinds of technologies all have to work right for any 1 oil or gas shale well to produce.  Many many places have the right geology, but  the 'genius' of the American way of doing it was to figure out how to mass produce the wells.  This is almost the exact opposite of how 'normal' oil and gas well drilling and completion processes are organized, with each well being treated as an individual project with separate requirements and needs.  Lots of other places have done a few wells like this, but outside the US, Canada, and Argentina, they are all in the science project stage where they are too inefficient by an order of magnitude to actually make it an attractive business venture.  

 

The Bazhenov is not being produced or explored in any serious way at the present.  

It IS a 'world class' shale resource play from at least several points of view (resource in place, areal extent, good surface access/rights, and it's in the middle of an area with a well developed oilfield infrastructure - similar to the Permian basin in Texas in that regard.  However the fact that it's thin in a lot of areas is a MASSIVE complication.  There are other characteristics which are poorly known that would affect it's ability to be a good producing zone (seals, potential for accidental water production, clay and swelling clay fraction, presence (or absence) of natural fractures and faults, rock plasticity etc.  However I am sure that within the Bazhenov there will be some sweet spots which are highly productive.  Right now the Russian upstream production industry just isn't set up to deal with it efficiently.  At some point someone will make a serious attempt though. Russia has the industrial resource base and technical knowledge to do it at hand  and we will see how it goes.

The history of fracking began long ago in a very primitive form, and has been used in many ways with lots of upgrades. 

How big of a factor is horizontal drilling technology in drilling compared to fracking, or do they always go together? I recall a story line " I stole your milkshake".    Eli reveals that old Bandy has died and that his grandson wants to sell the oil drilling rights to his grandfather's land in order to fund his goal of becoming a movie star -- with Eli as the broker for the deal. Plainview agrees but only if Eli will say that he is a "false prophet and God is a superstition." When Eli does so several times, Plainview reveals that, having owned all the wells around the Bandy ranch, he has already taken the oil from the Bandy property through drainage. Eli reveals that, despite a successful radio preaching career, he is broke due to bad investments. Plainview chases him around the bowling alley then bludgeons him to death with a bowling pin. When the butler comes to see what the commotion has been, Plainview announces, "I'm finished" .

There Will Be Blood (2007)

Plot

 

Putin has criticized fracking since we started costing him market share. He was very successful turning the Greens against using it in Europe. They are now paying the price. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

Putin has criticized fracking since we started costing him market share. He was very successful turning the Greens against using it in Europe. They are now paying the price. 

The Greens don't need Putin's help to shoot themselves in a foot. Russia has always been fracking, too. It just didn't have a name for it.

Edited December 4, 2021 by Andrei Moutchkine

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

EVs don;t even need subsidies today. Tesla has insane demand with absolutely insane vehicle margins yet they get no buyer subsidy.

Tesla cars do get subsidies, depending on locale, Moreover, does the company sell carbon credits to other car manufacturers which are not 100% EV.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

4 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Tesla cars do get subsidies, depending on locale, Moreover, does the company sell carbon credits to other car manufacturers which are not 100% EV.

Tesla's profit margins far exceed any local subsidies or carbon credits. Both could go away and they would still have the industry's best vehicle profit margin. 

 

[frankfurter + 562]

ronwagn has relegated oilprice to the level of his personal propaganda outlet.  In reading hundreds of his posts, nothing is objective fact; too much is falsehoods.

Putin lost market share SOLELY on account of US fracking? give us a break. show the facts, not opinion.

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

4 minutes ago, frankfurter said:

ronwagn has relegated oilprice to the level of his personal propaganda outlet.  In reading hundreds of his posts, nothing is objective fact; too much is falsehoods.

Putin lost market share SOLELY on account of US fracking? give us a break. show the facts, not opinion.

 

When did I ever say solely? False accusations are the tool of propagandists like you. 

[frankfurter + 562]

27 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

When did I ever say solely? False accusations are the tool of propagandists like you. 

You gave no reason other fracking, thus your sole reason is fracking. uh, maybe you should learn the English language?  Or, maybe you know it?  The goal of the propagandist is to blend facts, lies, opinions, by allusion and obfuscation, to paint a picture for his agenda. Whether by skill or luck, you have a talent for this. 

 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

44 minutes ago, frankfurter said:

ronwagn has relegated oilprice to the level of his personal propaganda outlet.  In reading hundreds of his posts, nothing is objective fact; too much is falsehoods.

Putin lost market share SOLELY on account of US fracking? give us a break. show the facts, not opinion.

 

Ohh look...thee reincarnation of the Big E! Beware grasshopper destiny is coming your way....

 

[frankfurter + 562]

please elaborate on my destiny.  this should be interesting. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

3 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Ohh look...thee reincarnation of the Big E! Beware grasshopper destiny is coming your way....

 

Trump gives mesmerizing speeches. I woke up to my laptop autoplaying him talk to a stadium of his supporters a couple of times. Didn't actually realize he had any skills whatsoever before that. I suppose fairly routine Russian news that I usually watch puts me into beyond Alex Jones conspirological category in US, and thus obviously a Republican

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

If you declare war on 84% of your energy supply, what will happen?  That's right, the price of energy goes UP!

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/UK-Grim-Prospects-Over-Surging-Energy-Bills-Just-Got-Worse.html

"The collapse of Bulb, and more than 20 other energy providers in the UK since the summer, will cost a UK household between $106 (80 pounds) and $113 (85 pounds) on top of their energy bills next year and in 2023, according to the regulator’s initial assessment of the cost of the crisis.

This crisis is not over yet, with winter coming and threatening to put more suppliers out of business.

Two dozen power and gas suppliers in the UK have already exited the retail energy market, and more are likely to do so. Another 20 energy providers in the UK could go bust in what looks like a “massacre” in the coming months unless the government reviews the energy price cap, Keith Anderson, chief executive at one of the largest providers, ScottishPower, said last month.

High energy prices drove inflation in the UK to a 10-year high in October. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 4.2 percent in the 12 months to October 2021, up from 3.1 percent in September, the Office for National Statistics said. Energy is expected to fuel additional price hikes next year when the energy regulator is set to raise the so-called price cap on energy bills.  

Nearly half of Britons worry more about their soaring energy bills than the COVID pandemic and a potential new wave in the UK, a poll for MailOnline showed last month. As colder temperatures in the winter approach, a total of 49 percent of Brits polled said they were more concerned about high gas and electricity bills than COVID, according to the survey by Redfield and Wilton Strategies for MailOnline.  "

Edited December 4, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

5 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

EVs don;t even need subsidies today. Tesla has insane demand with absolutely insane vehicle margins yet they get no buyer subsidy.

We certainly should invest in domestic fabs but the headline is BS. The chip shortage is for old fashioned chips used in legacy ICE that fabs didn't want to make anymore. Fabs scrapped the production lines when ICE companies canceled their orders last year. There is a reason that EV sales have gone up while ICE sales went down. EVs use modern chips.

With all that "insane demand" for EVs, Jay, why are you still sitting on the sidelines? Why are you clinging to your ICE vehicle and foresaking the new EVs?  I can tell you why, because EVs do not make any sense today.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

10 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

EVs will be 50% of vehicle stock in 2040. 100% in 2050.

And only a fraction of a fraction of 1% today....hmmm.

If they can't even sell an EV to you, a fanatical EV supporter if ever there was one, what hope do EVs have in the future? None.

Edited December 4, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

And only a fraction of a fraction of 1% today....hmmm.

If they can't even sell an EV to you, a fanatical EV supporter if ever there was one, what hope do EVs have in the future? None.

It is simple math, EV sales just keep increasing.

[notsonice + 1,255]

3 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

And only a fraction of a fraction of 1% today....hmmm.

If they can't even sell an EV to you, a fanatical EV supporter if ever there was one, what hope do EVs have in the future? None.

Rome was not built overnight

 

Tesla Has An Estimated 1.3M Cybertruck Reservations Worth $80B

Steven Loveday - Nov 23

Ford has nearly 200,000 F-150 Lightning reservations, which is incredible, but not close to Cybertruck pre-orders.

The Tesla Cybertruck story is really outright crazy if you think about it. The truck arrived on stage at its reveal and many people thought it was an Elon Musk joke, which would come as no surprise.

They were honestly waiting for the "actual" electric pickup truck to appear on stage, but the crazy metal wedge was the real deal. Clearly, the wild, stainless steel behemoth has grown on many people, to the tune of over a million.

Tesla recently made it clear that it won't begin producing the Cybertruck for about another year. People have already been waiting two years, and it may be years before all 1.3 million reservations are filled. Meanwhile, people are still adding to the reservation list.

Sure, not all these folks will follow through, but even if only half of them move forward, it's triple the number of Ford F-150 Lightning reservations, which are incredible as well. The fact that nearly 200,000 people have reserved an electric pickup truck from Ford is something many people would have never believed in the recent past. However, to put it into perspective, 250,000 people reserved a Cybertruck during the first week after it was revealed.

According to a recent report on Electrek, Tesla's ~1,270,000 Cybertruck reservations add up to some $80 billion in future value.

It's important to note that there's no way to know for sure how many Cybertruck reservations exist, though a crowdsourced system is working to keep track. An analyst's report from six months ago put Cybertruck reservations at 650,000, but orders continue to come in at a ridiculous pace.

Edited December 4, 2021 by notsonice

[notsonice + 1,255]

9 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Some areas always get cold weather. National forests are usually near mountains that get cold and most national forests are up north. I live slightly north of the average latitude for America, and am enjoying balmy weather. High temperature here was 62 degrees in central Illinois. In some areas firewood is free, those with free wood and physical energy sometimes. 

The weather has always changed and always will. That does not mean that CO2 is a major factor in that change. Maybe it is, maybe not. China and Russia do not care. They need to be our main concern as do affordable prices for our people and a good economy for them. We need to follow a moderate path not a rushed green dream that will harm our economy and our people. 

US weather on a whole is expected to be 10 to 30 degrees warmer for the next 15 days across the US. Pretty simple Nat gas demand in the US is cratered so far this heating season. Warming compared to 50 years ago is occurring on a yearly basis. Only the braindead do not think that humans are responsible

Edited December 4, 2021 by notsonice

[Eric Gagen + 713]

12 hours ago, ronwagn said:

The history of fracking began long ago in a very primitive form, and has been used in many ways with lots of upgrades. 

How big of a factor is horizontal drilling technology in drilling compared to fracking, or do they always go together? I recall a story line " I stole your milkshake".    Eli reveals that old Bandy has died and that his grandson wants to sell the oil drilling rights to his grandfather's land in order to fund his goal of becoming a movie star -- with Eli as the broker for the deal. Plainview agrees but only if Eli will say that he is a "false prophet and God is a superstition." When Eli does so several times, Plainview reveals that, having owned all the wells around the Bandy ranch, he has already taken the oil from the Bandy property through drainage. Eli reveals that, despite a successful radio preaching career, he is broke due to bad investments. Plainview chases him around the bowling alley then bludgeons him to death with a bowling pin. When the butler comes to see what the commotion has been, Plainview announces, "I'm finished" .

There Will Be Blood (2007)

Plot

 

Putin has criticized fracking since we started costing him market share. He was very successful turning the Greens against using it in Europe. They are now paying the price. 

fracturing and directional drilling developed independently of one another to solve different problems.  As you say though, both have long histories.  Combining directionally drilled wells with associated frac jobs started getting popular roughly in the 1970's or early 80's more or less as a cost saving measure to reduce capital expenditures offshore.  It allows you to get high productivity wells out of a minimum number of well sites and platforms.  directional drilling is at least 120 years old, and fracturing in the form of 'torpedo shooting is even older, dating back to the end of the US civil war.  hydraulic fracturing, using pumped fluid and sand to create fracturing dates back 'only' to the late 1940's.  

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

Legacy Combustion Vehicles Drop Below 50% New Car Share In Germany As Plugins Grab Over A Third Of The Market

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

3 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Legacy Combustion Vehicles Drop Below 50% New Car Share In Germany As Plugins Grab Over A Third Of The Market

Massive subsidies. Very little proper recharging infrastructure.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

4 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Legacy Combustion Vehicles Drop Below 50% New Car Share In Germany As Plugins Grab Over A Third Of The Market

Still a tiny percentage of rolling stock. And not one of those new EVs is being driven by Jay, at least not yet. Right?

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

12 hours ago, notsonice said:

US weather on a whole is expected to be 10 to 30 degrees warmer for the next 15 days across the US. Pretty simple Nat gas demand in the US is cratered so far this heating season. Warming compared to 50 years ago is occurring on a yearly basis. Only the braindead do not think that humans are responsible

Only the braindead accept a weak science supporting CO2 as the explanation for climate change.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

13 hours ago, notsonice said:

Rome was not built overnight

 

Tesla Has An Estimated 1.3M Cybertruck Reservations Worth $80B

Steven Loveday - Nov 23

Ford has nearly 200,000 F-150 Lightning reservations, which is incredible, but not close to Cybertruck pre-orders.

The Tesla Cybertruck story is really outright crazy if you think about it. The truck arrived on stage at its reveal and many people thought it was an Elon Musk joke, which would come as no surprise.

They were honestly waiting for the "actual" electric pickup truck to appear on stage, but the crazy metal wedge was the real deal. Clearly, the wild, stainless steel behemoth has grown on many people, to the tune of over a million.

Tesla recently made it clear that it won't begin producing the Cybertruck for about another year. People have already been waiting two years, and it may be years before all 1.3 million reservations are filled. Meanwhile, people are still adding to the reservation list.

Sure, not all these folks will follow through, but even if only half of them move forward, it's triple the number of Ford F-150 Lightning reservations, which are incredible as well. The fact that nearly 200,000 people have reserved an electric pickup truck from Ford is something many people would have never believed in the recent past. However, to put it into perspective, 250,000 people reserved a Cybertruck during the first week after it was revealed.

According to a recent report on Electrek, Tesla's ~1,270,000 Cybertruck reservations add up to some $80 billion in future value.

It's important to note that there's no way to know for sure how many Cybertruck reservations exist, though a crowdsourced system is working to keep track. An analyst's report from six months ago put Cybertruck reservations at 650,000, but orders continue to come in at a ridiculous pace.

Bottom line, only a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of 1%...you need a microscope to see it. Rome was built faster than this.

Edited December 4, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

15 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

It is simple math, EV sales just keep increasing.

So do ICE sales, and the internal combustion sales grow in much larger numbers than EVs, and none of those EVs is currently being driven by Jay, right? If the world's most fanatical supporter of EVs does not buy one, what hope is there for EVs?

Edited December 4, 2021 by Ecocharger

[turbguy + 1,544]

4 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Legacy Combustion Vehicles Drop Below 50% New Car Share In Germany As Plugins Grab Over A Third Of The Market

Don't bother Jay. 

The braindead still believe in buggy whips.  

Change is always destructive.

And unaccepted by those with a vested interest.