GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 hour ago, turbguy said:

Here's one solid reason:

Residential Air Conditioning. 

Came on strong in the '60's & '70's.

Exactly! I have said that on this site before. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

12 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

If you get your prescription and it is wrong for your needs, yes, that creates a problem.

There are no vehicle instructions on shoe sizes or type, so your argument is lacking in logic. 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

10 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

There are no vehicle instructions on shoe sizes or type, so your argument is lacking in logic. 

His argument is well founded, human ergonomics have long been factored in engineering. 

It's just life.

Edited December 22, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

7 hours ago, ronwagn said:

ICE will be along in large vehicles for the rest of our lives. Nothing in America can beat the cost/benefit of my $15,000 Mitsubishi Mirage except for a very small electric vehicle sold only in Texas called the Kandi, that depends on a rebate to be competitive with a very limited battery range. 

My car has up to a 400 mile range on about ten gallons of gas. 

I dont disagree on large vehicles Ron but on mainstream family vehicles they will be EV's. Also you arent allowing for improved battery tech and cost reductions which is almost inevitable.

I dont want to sound like Jay but with nearly all the mainstream vehicle manufacturers only selling EV's or hybrids by 2030 you may have no choice. Most European governments have mandated that this is so which is why the car manufacturers are following suit for obvious reasons. Its only a matter of time before the US and other Western countries follow suit.

Not saying its right, just the way it is!

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

4 hours ago, turbguy said:

Unless you have actually experienced the initially "eye-opening" effectiveness of a Tesla's regenerative braking, you should reflect commenting on it.

But, perhaps you have driven one.

I have. Have you?

Yes I have and I will still be using my brake thanks. We have 3 company cars that are Tesla model 3's

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

9 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

I dont disagree on large vehicles Ron but on mainstream family vehicles they will be EV's. Also you arent allowing for improved battery tech and cost reductions which is almost inevitable.

I dont want to sound like Jay but with nearly all the mainstream vehicle manufacturers only selling EV's or hybrids by 2030 you may have no choice. Most European governments have mandated that this is so which is why the car manufacturers are following suit for obvious reasons. Its only a matter of time before the US and other Western countries follow suit.

Not saying its right, just the way it is!

It may not be feasible to go all-EV, with some scarce EV inputs soaring in cost, the possibility of the average person affording an EV could well be impractical. Now, you could still ride a bicycle to work, or walk to work if your job is near by. But shopping by carrying large paper bags (plastic would be illegal in our imaginary future), there is a limit as to how many groceries you could buy in one trip to the food store. 

You can see where this is going, to a drastic reduction in standard of living, and people in most countries will not just sit back and take that on the chin, they will change the government. New government with new (old) energy policies.

Edited December 22, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

Coal is red hot right now, and will be going forward.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Coal-On-Track-To-Break-Records-Despite-Efforts-To-Curb-Production.html

"And now it appears that even countries that are already undertaking strategies to phase coal out have experienced a hike in demand this year. Mainly due to low wind volumes and a hike in energy demand, Germany has had to rely on coal and nuclear power for electricity generation throughout 2021. This meant the contribution of coal and nuclear power for energy production reached 40 percent this year, compared to 35 percent in 2020, with renewables accounting for 41 percent compared to 44 percent last year. At present, Germany is planning to end nuclear power production by the end of 2022 and phase out coal by 2030.

Even the U.K., which pledged to end coal production a year earlier than anticipated by 2024, had to fire up coal plants in September to meet electricity demand in the face of gas shortages and surging prices. During this time, coal contributed 3 percent of national power, rather than the average 2.2 percent. This was following a landmark period of time in which the U.K. run coal-free for three days in August."

Edited December 22, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Eric Gagen + 713]

59 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

It may not be feasible to go all-EV, with some scarce EV inputs soaring in cost, the possibility of the average person affording an EV could well be impractical. Now, you could still ride a bicycle to work, or walk to work if your job is near by. But shopping by carrying large paper bags (plastic would be illegal in our imaginary future), there is a limit as to how many groceries you could buy in one trip to the food store. 

You can see where this is going, to a drastic reduction in standard of living, and people in most countries will not just sit back and take that on the chin, they will change the government. New government with new (old) energy policies.

This all depends on how the market for used EV's and battery recycling develop.  If EV's last a long time, then the demand for new production on a year over year basis will be reduced compared to ICE vehicle production rates.  There is some reason to believe this is likely given the relative simplicity and ruggedness of a basic electric vehicle drivetrain.  

The other 'wild card' is the potential that battery recycling gets more efficient and cost effective.  if this happens, then the initial cost for producing new EV's gets greatly reduced at some future point when the # of EV's getting scrapped and recycled starts to have a serious impact on the number of new batteries that have to be manufactured each year.  New drivetrains, bodies and chassis have to be made, but with a greatly reduced battery cost the cost for getting new vehicles drops considerably.  Plus during the 'reprocessing' it may be possible to take materials from older/less efficient batteries (like the ones currently in circulation) and upgrade them.   

Another thing to consider is international used EV sales.  This already happens on a limited basis with ICE vehicles, but with EV's it may be more widespread for various reasons.  Basically people in rich countries buy nice new EV's, drive them for a while, sell them/trade them in at some point, and all the EV's get put on a container ship and sent off to country X and sold.  This happens a lot with 'work' ICE vehicles like pickup trucks and over the road heavy haul trucks.  I could imagine a similar market for passenger EV's if the demand for them is high enough.  

Edit:  At least here (USA) nearly everyone has the option for home delivery of groceries for free, or for a very small fee.  I don't see groceries as being a reason why people need a car any longer.  Buying your own groceries in person is a 'want to'  thing nowadays, not a necessity.  

Edited December 22, 2021 by Eric Gagen

[Eric Gagen + 713]

14 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Another crucial EV input is in short supply, and facing rapid price increases.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/A-Graphite-Shortage-Could-Derail-The-EV-Boom.html

"Each EV battery contains 20-30%  graphite, which means that graphite demand will soar in tandem with EV demand. 

And at the same time, both China and the US are now struggling with a graphite squeeze. 

While EV giants have been busy scrambling for lithium sources around the world, new concerns have arisen about a lack of graphite supply.  

Some 90% of graphite anodes used in batteries come from China. "

The 'best' (I.E.) cheapest graphite for anode production comes from high purity mined graphite, which China does have in abundance.  However graphite is also manufactured using petroleum coke as the starting raw material, and the world produces a LOT of petroleum coke.  It is more expensive than getting good quality flake graphite from mines in China, but when the demand gets sufficiently high, it will be used to a much greater degree than it currently is.  

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

6 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

The 'best' (I.E.) cheapest graphite for anode production comes from high purity mined graphite, which China does have in abundance.  However graphite is also manufactured using petroleum coke as the starting raw material, and the world produces a LOT of petroleum coke.  It is more expensive than getting good quality flake graphite from mines in China, but when the demand gets sufficiently high, it will be used to a much greater degree than it currently is.  

Silicon is also being rapidly developed to replace graphite. With its much higher energy density it will cause an overall decrease in demand for all battery inputs because fewer batteries will be needed to store a given amount of energy.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

18 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

I dont disagree on large vehicles Ron but on mainstream family vehicles they will be EV's. Also you arent allowing for improved battery tech and cost reductions which is almost inevitable.

I dont want to sound like Jay but with nearly all the mainstream vehicle manufacturers only selling EV's or hybrids by 2030 you may have no choice. Most European governments have mandated that this is so which is why the car manufacturers are following suit for obvious reasons. Its only a matter of time before the US and other Western countries follow suit.

Not saying its right, just the way it is!

There are a lot of people that will go for what is most affordable and cost efficient. There is a big question if we will allow Chinese vehicles to sell in our market. Nobody has yet come up with a competitive low priced EV. Electricity isn't free. We all pay for rebates, which is a travesty IMHO. I don't want Chinese vehicles. I don't want expensive vehicles. I want the best cost benefit for my needs. Let me know when you see that come out. 

If you include plug in hybrids I think you are realistic. Unlike Jay, who belittles them. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

21 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

His argument is well founded, human ergonomics have long been factored in engineering. 

It's just life.

They are obviously working on false facts based on the prior sizes of people. Garbage in, garbage out. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

46 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

There are a lot of people that will go for what is most affordable and cost efficient. There is a big question if we will allow Chinese vehicles to sell in our market. Nobody has yet come up with a competitive low priced EV. Electricity isn't free. We all pay for rebates, which is a travesty IMHO. I don't want Chinese vehicles. I don't want expensive vehicles. I want the best cost benefit for my needs. Let me know when you see that come out. 

If you include plug in hybrids I think you are realistic. Unlike Jay, who belittles them. 

I don't belittle them, the market does. This data is six months old and since then PHEV market share has started dropping in Europe.

Edited December 23, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

23 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

I dont disagree on large vehicles Ron but on mainstream family vehicles they will be EV's. Also you arent allowing for improved battery tech and cost reductions which is almost inevitable.

I dont want to sound like Jay but with nearly all the mainstream vehicle manufacturers only selling EV's or hybrids by 2030 you may have no choice. Most European governments have mandated that this is so which is why the car manufacturers are following suit for obvious reasons. Its only a matter of time before the US and other Western countries follow suit.

Not saying its right, just the way it is!

Well I would be pointing out that customer and investor demand is moving the market faster than the mandates. But otherwise what exactly is it you disagree with me about? 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

9 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Well I would be pointing out that customer and investor demand is moving the market faster than the mandates. But otherwise what exactly is it you disagree with me about? 

The only thing I disagree with is probably the EV growth curve as there will be bumps along the way that you discount such as simple economics when governments stop the rebates which is inevitable as they need tax revenue on vehicles (it is starting to happen in Norway on the luxury EV range). I think there will also be a massive push by many to keep ICE vehicles on the road much longer than they currently do, so i expect the second hand ICE market to remain strong for decades. After all there are still an estimated 3.8million tame horses in the USA, people still like the whole feel and sound of an ICE vehicle.

However on the main points that family car EV's will be the mainstream go to vehicle in 10 years I have no argument as the push for improved battery tech is everywhere and this will steadily improve over the next decade. Over a much longer period maybe not in my lifetime I think the body shell of the vehicle will be the battery, possibly made from graphene, and that would be a game changer in my view due to the weight reduction.

 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

40 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

The only thing I disagree with is probably the EV growth curve as there will be bumps along the way that you discount such as simple economics when governments stop the rebates which is inevitable as they need tax revenue on vehicles (it is starting to happen in Norway on the luxury EV range). I think there will also be a massive push by many to keep ICE vehicles on the road much longer than they currently do, so i expect the second hand ICE market to remain strong for decades. After all there are still an estimated 3.8million tame horses in the USA, people still like the whole feel and sound of an ICE vehicle.

However on the main points that family car EV's will be the mainstream go to vehicle in 10 years I have no argument as the push for improved battery tech is everywhere and this will steadily improve over the next decade. Over a much longer period maybe not in my lifetime I think the body shell of the vehicle will be the battery, possibly made from graphene, and that would be a game changer in my view due to the weight reduction.

 

Well Norway is already over 90% EV, so how exactly is cutting the rebate on luxury cars a speed bump?

Some wealthy people will keep ICE vehicles on the road as classics but not daily drivers just like wealthy people keep horses. Especially when the gas stations start closing. Then ICE cars will begin to be treated like cigarettes. In the US, rich people don't smoke tobacco, that is a low class habit. Converting legacy ICE classics into EVs is already becoming a big deal. Both Ford and GM have launched product lines for it. ICE cars on the road in 2060 will be as rare as seeing a horse on the highway is today. 

Edited December 23, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

I do like my hybrid though it gives me the best of both worlds and is pretty quick in sport mode.

I reckon I spend $350 per year on petrol (gas) and thats with the cost per gallon approx $8.50 in the UK.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

Lingenfelter Performance Engineering unveiled an electric Chevrolet El Camino conversion powered by General Motors' new EV crate motor at the Performance Racing Industry (PRI) trade show in Indianapolis last week. https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1134476_lingenfelter-built-an-electric-el-camino-with-gm-s-connect-cruise-crate-motor

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

20 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

This all depends on how the market for used EV's and battery recycling develop.  If EV's last a long time, then the demand for new production on a year over year basis will be reduced compared to ICE vehicle production rates.  There is some reason to believe this is likely given the relative simplicity and ruggedness of a basic electric vehicle drivetrain.  

The other 'wild card' is the potential that battery recycling gets more efficient and cost effective.  if this happens, then the initial cost for producing new EV's gets greatly reduced at some future point when the # of EV's getting scrapped and recycled starts to have a serious impact on the number of new batteries that have to be manufactured each year.  New drivetrains, bodies and chassis have to be made, but with a greatly reduced battery cost the cost for getting new vehicles drops considerably.  Plus during the 'reprocessing' it may be possible to take materials from older/less efficient batteries (like the ones currently in circulation) and upgrade them.   

Another thing to consider is international used EV sales.  This already happens on a limited basis with ICE vehicles, but with EV's it may be more widespread for various reasons.  Basically people in rich countries buy nice new EV's, drive them for a while, sell them/trade them in at some point, and all the EV's get put on a container ship and sent off to country X and sold.  This happens a lot with 'work' ICE vehicles like pickup trucks and over the road heavy haul trucks.  I could imagine a similar market for passenger EV's if the demand for them is high enough.  

Edit:  At least here (USA) nearly everyone has the option for home delivery of groceries for free, or for a very small fee.  I don't see groceries as being a reason why people need a car any longer.  Buying your own groceries in person is a 'want to'  thing nowadays, not a necessity.  

Scarce inputs for EVs would remain scarce (lithium, graphite, cobalt), and the cost of battery replacement places a cost barrier for less well off Americans, who probably cannot enter the EV market to begin with. I do not see cost declines for EV inputs. And that would apply for home delivery costs, if ICE delivery is placed on the illegal list of transport possibilities. EVs still have the status of second or third vehicles. Moving into the number one vehicle status is whole different story.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

20 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

The 'best' (I.E.) cheapest graphite for anode production comes from high purity mined graphite, which China does have in abundance.  However graphite is also manufactured using petroleum coke as the starting raw material, and the world produces a LOT of petroleum coke.  It is more expensive than getting good quality flake graphite from mines in China, but when the demand gets sufficiently high, it will be used to a much greater degree than it currently is.  

Again, you are talking skyrocketing costs for EV inputs, which does not help the problem. Petroleum will be outlawed in our brave new world, so that source sounds like it is off-limits.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

11 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

I don't belittle them, the market does. This data is six months old and since then PHEV market share has started dropping in Europe.

Not SHARE, Jay, share of sales. You are always getting confused on the difference.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

6 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Well Norway is already over 90% EV, so how exactly is cutting the rebate on luxury cars a speed bump?

Some wealthy people will keep ICE vehicles on the road as classics but not daily drivers just like wealthy people keep horses. Especially when the gas stations start closing. Then ICE cars will begin to be treated like cigarettes. In the US, rich people don't smoke tobacco, that is a low class habit. Converting legacy ICE classics into EVs is already becoming a big deal. Both Ford and GM have launched product lines for it. ICE cars on the road in 2060 will be as rare as seeing a horse on the highway is today. 

Again Jay, 90% share of what? Rolling stock or sales?  You like to confuse the two.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

Here is where the energy transition runs aground, in the details.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Germanys-Reaction-To-The-Energy-Crisis-Could-Be-Catastrophic.html

"Germany's determination to go green despite an energy crisis in Europe could significantly impact the country's energy security

While power prices in Europe have been soaring and natural gas prices have begun to drop, Germany is refusing to change its energy policy

Specifically, it is Germany's decision to phase out nuclear power and accelerate the phase-out of coal-fired plants that has confused analysts"

Edited December 23, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Eric Gagen + 713]

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

Again, you are talking skyrocketing costs for EV inputs, which does not help the problem. Petroleum will be outlawed in our brave new world, so that source sounds like it is off-limits.

No - not 'skyrocketing' costs - perhaps a 10-15% increase in the cost of anode qualtity graphite to access the massive supply of petroleum coke produced annually (billions of tons) This supply won't end or be reduced if ICE vehicles aren't on the roads - it's one of those non fuel petroleum products that doesn't have an electric replacement, like asphalt, or lubricating oil.  

Edited December 23, 2021 by Eric Gagen

[Eric Gagen + 713]

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

Scarce inputs for EVs would remain scarce (lithium, graphite, cobalt), and the cost of battery replacement places a cost barrier for less well off Americans, who probably cannot enter the EV market to begin with. I do not see cost declines for EV inputs. And that would apply for home delivery costs, if ICE delivery is placed on the illegal list of transport possibilities. EVs still have the status of second or third vehicles. Moving into the number one vehicle status is whole different story.

How is that different from the market for ICE vehicles?  As of the last major survey I could find from 2017 only something like 1/2 of families can afford to buy a new car anyway, and I am sure that number has gotten worse with sharp rises in the price of automobiles, and general inflation in other areas.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/28/that-shiny-new-car-is-out-of-reach-for-many-americans.html

When assessing the cost structure of making deliveries, the initial purchase price of the vehicle is not a critical factor in the overall cost of operations.  The #1 cost is the people (drivers and pickers) the #2 cost is repair and maintenance (including fuel), and the #3 cost is the cost of the delivery vehicles themselves. 

A delivery business isn't like owning your own car which gets driven a very few miles every day over a long time period.  Delivery vehicles make LOTS of short trips every day, and can easily run 10 or 20 times the annual mileage of a personal vehicle.  This makes the economics of operating them VERY different.  

Depending on exactly how well an EV delivery vehicle compares to an ICE one on initial purchase price and R&M expenses for various load cases, they could very well be cheaper to operate given their lower 'fuel' costs and the generally lower rate of mechanical failure in EV drivetrain components.