GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[ronwagn + 6,290]

14 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

After warranties expire you can use independent service companies.

My driver seat warranty went out a month or so before the warranty and they never repaired it correctly but expected us to pay the bill after they tried four times. Obviously they knew what was wrong and tried to cheat me. So they lost a loyal customer who bought five cars from them. 

[Boat + 1,324]

TEXAS — A report by environmental watchdog group Earthworks found that 69-84% of methane flares in Texas are unpermitted.

Edited December 28, 2021 by Boat

[Boat + 1,324]

Looks like some jail time is warranted for failure to follow the rule of law. Just like the Capital conspiracy to stage a coup. Danger lurks from the wicked in such a variety of ways. The rule of law can be a pesky thing for law breakers. Since the US was founded the battle for civilization is shown in its laws. There are many that would trash progress in pursuit of greed, power and control. If you want change, change the rule. In the meantime let’s kill flaring and cap those leaking wells.  

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,246]

6 hours ago, Boat said:

TEXAS — A report by environmental watchdog group Earthworks found that 69-84% of methane flares in Texas are unpermitted.

Yeah, one should get a grasp of Texas laws on flaring. Unless in the Permian (several large counties), flares used to be a matter of safety while the well was being drilled and upon completion and no permits were required. doubtful it's changed. There is a time limit on flares, you can check with each county and probly find online what the laws state, if there is a law. So the 69-84% of those wells may very well fall under the "old rule" of law where as is allowed to well is completed. No permits needed.

Edited December 28, 2021 by Old-Ruffneck
add

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

EU Natural Gas Prices Tumble For Fifth Straight Day

flotilla of U.S. liquefied natural gas carriers heading for Europe has brought relief to European gas buyers, pushing gas prices considerably lower. According to Bloomberg data, cited by Russia’s Sputnik, LNG cargos traveling from the U.S. to Europe rose by a third over the Christmas weekend.

20 tankers with U.S. LNG are traveling to Europe, and another 14 are headed in the same general direction awaiting further orders as desperate Europe became willing to pay a higher premium than buyers in Asia amid a persistent gas crunch that has seen prices break a series of records and forced some countries to reopen retired coal power plants.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/EU-Natural-Gas-Prices-Tumble-For-Fifth-Straight-Day.html

 

It is extraordinary to see such a event. How can Eropean leadership be so gullible? 

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

The trend is for colder weather, and deeper ice and snow buildups in Asia.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

"The second path is where the relatively cold period across the NH continents for the end of December and into early January disrupts the overall mild T-S-T coupling event. In its place, we are at the very beginning of a T-S-T coupling event that favors a more disrupted PV and the remainder of the winter is overall colder than the first path.  In this second path or scenario the upcoming cold period would not be continuous but would also transition to a milder period in mid-January, but a significant weakened PV would couple to the surface leading to potentially and extended cold period in late winter.  The best support of this scenario is recent and predicted ridging/high pressure in the Urals/Barents-Kara Seas region.  It’s not optimal to disrupt the PV but should at least force some weakening with potentially more significant weakening in January.

In recent winters, the lack of sea ice in the Barents-Kara Seas, in my opinion, has helped to anchor ridging/high pressure in the Urals/Barents-Kara Seas region giving it enough durability to disrupt the PV.  However, this year sea ice is close to normal in this region and may not be much of a factor.  Instead, Eurasian snow cover and depth (see Figure i), which is above normal across Siberia may be the boundary forcing that could be the difference in weakening the PV favoring a more negative AO/NAO resulting in a relatively cold pattern for the NH continents in late winter."  

Edited December 28, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

Coal demand for power generation is reaching a peak level with new Chinese plants coming online.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-fires-up-giant-coal-power-plant-face-calls-cuts-2021-12-28/

"China, under fire for approving new coal power stations as other countries try to curb greenhouse gases, has completed the first 1,000-megawatt unit of the Shanghaimiao plant, the biggest of its kind under construction in the country.

Its operator, the Guodian Power Shanghaimiao Corporation, a subsidiary of the central government-run China Energy Investment Corporation, said on Tuesday that the plant's technology was the world's most efficient, with the lowest rates of coal and water consumption."

Edited December 28, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

Oil prices are on a tear following massive demand increases.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Hold-Gains-Following-Crude-Inventory-Draw.html

"This week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated the inventory draw for crude oil to be 3.09 million barrels.

U.S. crude inventories have shed some 68 million barrels since the beginning of the year.

In the previous week, the API reported a draw in oil inventories of 3.670 million barrels, compared to the 2.633-million-barrel draw that analysts had predicted."

Edited December 29, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

What will the New Year bring? Oil will continue to be hot, aided by misguided ESG pressures on banks.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Global-Oil-Demand-Could-Reach-New-Heights-In-2022.html

"...even green and sustainable Europe is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels. And Europe is not among the top consumers of oil—it's emerging Asia that has this pleasure, and all forecasts point towards this demand growing further in the coming years.

OPEC+'s spare capacity stood at 5.11 million bpd as of October this year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. However, spare capacity is not static, and the October figure is actually a substantial decline from the start of 2021 when spare capacity in the extended cartel stood at 9 million bpd. And it could fall further to less than 4 million bpd by the end of next year.

This state of affairs prompted the International Energy Agency, a vocal proponent of the energy transition, to urge more investments in new oil production. Just how serious the situation could become because of this discrepancy shows in the fact that just months earlier, the IEA had called for an end to all new oil and gas investments so the world can reach its net-zero targets.

So it appears that next year will see even stronger oil demand, even with a temporary dip during the first quarter while we come to terms with the omicron variant. And while demand grows stronger, supply growth will continue to lag behind under ESG investor and government pressure."

Edited December 29, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Tomasz + 1,608]

I wonder because I heard nonstop for several years that Donald Trump is Putin's agent

 Seeing how the green hysteria has scared most Western companies away in recent years from investing both in coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear power at the same time  it really makes me wonder if the Green fools are not the real agents of influence of Putin strategically introduced to worlds decisive borders wih Greta Thurnberg at the firefront.

Because if we are to judge Trump and Greta and their merits for Russia for sure  it's rather Greta not Donald.

Donald did not make Putin some kind of world energy price fixer but Greta achieved that..

Edited December 29, 2021 by Tomasz

[specinho + 470]

On 12/19/2021 at 3:40 PM, specinho said:

thank you for the reference.

As i briefly glide through the content, I realize it might not be the same as the draft design that i have in mind........

Owing to much constraint over things I can do, I might need some help to get it cleared out. Anyone interested to discover if it is fun to play around with my design?

@ ronwagn: what are you trying to say with the rolling eyes? You are doubting  my design? Or just do not give a damn?

[specinho + 470]

On 12/25/2021 at 2:25 AM, Eric Gagen said:

What you say about statistics is true in the general sense, but it's  not correct or useful for describing the behaviour of the data for this specific case.  The problem is that ice cores clearly indicate that temperature and CO2  fluctuations of the sorts we are currently concerned about take place on a scale of hundreds of years - maybe at the most a few thousand.  You cannot model a behavior on that time scale with a small amount of data spread out over 450 million years.  

To use your own previous example of sunspots and solar activity (which have large effects on temperature) you need to be able to get data at least every 2-3 years to be able to even determine that there is a correlationbetween the two, because sunspot and solar cycles tend to take place in 20 to 100 year cycles, and temperature lags by a couple of years.    If you had a data point every million years,  you would conclude that solar cycles did not affect temperature because you would never find any correlation in your data - the time scale on which the changes take place is too short to be visible in the data.  Sampling rates DO matter when you are trying to measure phenomenon that change faster than your sample rate.  

[specinho + 470]

22 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

The trend is for colder weather, and deeper ice and snow buildups in Asia.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

"The second path is where the relatively cold period across the NH continents for the end of December and into early January disrupts the overall mild T-S-T coupling event. In its place, we are at the very beginning of a T-S-T coupling event that favors a more disrupted PV and the remainder of the winter is overall colder than the first path.  In this second path or scenario the upcoming cold period would not be continuous but would also transition to a milder period in mid-January, but a significant weakened PV would couple to the surface leading to potentially and extended cold period in late winter.  The best support of this scenario is recent and predicted ridging/high pressure in the Urals/Barents-Kara Seas region.  It’s not optimal to disrupt the PV but should at least force some weakening with potentially more significant weakening in January.

In recent winters, the lack of sea ice in the Barents-Kara Seas, in my opinion, has helped to anchor ridging/high pressure in the Urals/Barents-Kara Seas region giving it enough durability to disrupt the PV.  However, this year sea ice is close to normal in this region and may not be much of a factor.  Instead, Eurasian snow cover and depth (see Figure i), which is above normal across Siberia may be the boundary forcing that could be the difference in weakening the PV favoring a more negative AO/NAO resulting in a relatively cold pattern for the NH continents in late winter."  

heavy clouds hanging lowly in the sky....... They could be an supporting observation that the upper layer of air is colder. Hence, clouds hang lower and much more than usual.........

 

 

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

On 12/24/2021 at 10:41 AM, Eric Gagen said:

The literature you cite has a couple of dozen data points to cover 450 million years of temperatures.  It's not a good study.  You need much more closely spaced data points to reach any conclusions whatsoever.  

Well, actually, the reduced transitional data points are drawn from a much larger data base,

"Following completion of most of this research, a new and more comprehensive database of 58,532 Phanerozoic temperature proxies from low-Mg calcite marine shells from the last 512 My was published [39]. This database incorporates the preceding compilation [28] but is 2–3 times larger. The expanded sample did not alter visibly the time series of T over the Phanerozoic, however (cf. [28] Figure 1, with Figure 3 of this paper). Moreover, this expanded database does not include additional proxy data for atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The correlation coefficients reported here were, therefore, not re-computed."

So the raw data observations he had available are more than 58,532, just for ONE type of series, plus he drew from other types of series with large numbers, a lot more than "a couple of dozen". He works from this voluminous data base the transitional points. 

There is no lack of data. Now, he uses OLS (ordinary least squares), rather than a multivariate model. This would be a preliminary test to determine if the CO2 variable is worth including in a larger multivariate model. The overall effect of using an OLS test for CO2 impacting on temperature would be to give a positive bias to the coefficient for CO2. However, it is nevertheless below 3%, even with the upward bias.

"The correlation between ΔRF_CO2 and linearly-detrended T across the Phanerozoic Eon is positive and discernible, but only 2.6% of variance in T is attributable to variance in ΔRF_CO2. "

Edited December 30, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

Biden & Co. are currently determined to push up the price of oil, and this policy direction appears to be working.  All those good people who rely on internal combustion engines, most of whom voted for Biden & Co., will have to pony up at the gas pump to support their guy in the White House.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/How-Bidens-Energy-Agenda-Could-Send-Oil-To-100.html

"Demand is already outpacing U.S. production. In 2021, U.S. crude oil inventories have shed nearly 70 million barrels. 

It would be one thing if U.S. policy were pro-oil and gas. As oil prices rise, oil and gas investments would flood in, and the market would do what the market does—regulate itself. But oil investors and banks—even Big Oil companies—are desperately trying to tiptoe through the new environment. Shareholders are now spattered with activist shareholders demanding more accountability with regard to the environment. Banks are eager to display their green prowess by shunning new oil and gas projects. Oil and gas companies are leery of sinking too much money into new drills too fast in an environment that may or may not be hospitable to them in the future. "

Edited December 30, 2021 by Ecocharger

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,191]

On 12/27/2021 at 2:23 PM, ronwagn said:

It is true that planned obsolescence  exists. Ask anyone who works on appliances, or any car mechanic. The first thing to go, for me, have been drivers automatic window, automatic van side doors, automatic van driver seat. The driver seat required a $600 dollar repair that the Chrysler ended up paying for after five visits to the dealer. I had purchased five vehicles from that dealer and they said I wasn't a "loyal" customer because I didn't use their service department. I went off on the service manager and told him I will not buy another vehicle from them.

Yup, you want a car to last?  Get rid of anything "automatic"

All "automatic" = is "automatic" maintenance bills.  Give me manual, other than in the transmission... 😁

[Eric Gagen + 713]

17 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Yup, you want a car to last?  Get rid of anything "automatic"

All "automatic" = is "automatic" maintenance bills.  Give me manual, other than in the transmission... 😁

Most of that stuff is reasonably easily repairable by the owner if you are a even a little bit of a handyman.  I have personally repaired or replaced automatic windows, remote tiltable heated mirrors, remote operated trunk latch and door lock mechanisms on a variety of vehicles made in the last 25 years or so.  It's really not that complex. Figure out what is broken, order parts online, then watch a youtube video or two to understand exactly how to get to the part and replace it without making your vehicle look like someone tried to do a lobotomy on the interior paneling.  Not only is it reasonably easy,  but in most cases the parts are really cheap, as long as you aren't looking to get parts from the OEM (or sometimes even then). In many cases the parts available are cheaper AND better quality than the OEM parts.  

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,191]

5 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

Most of that stuff is reasonably easily repairable by the owner if you are a even a little bit of a handyman.  I have personally repaired or replaced automatic windows, remote tiltable heated mirrors, remote operated trunk latch and door lock mechanisms on a variety of vehicles made in the last 25 years or so.  It's really not that complex. Figure out what is broken, order parts online, then watch a youtube video or two to understand exactly how to get to the part and replace it without making your vehicle look like someone tried to do a lobotomy on the interior paneling.  Not only is it reasonably easy,  but in most cases the parts are really cheap, as long as you aren't looking to get parts from the OEM (or sometimes even then). In many cases the parts available are cheaper AND better quality than the OEM parts.  

No, its not complex, it is costly and time consuming though.  A mechanical van sliding door essentially never fails until you make it powered...  I've rebuilt many engines, as you can get used cars for ~free if they have engine problems.  As for EV's... Software essentially will stop this in used car market.  Do not even try to buy a used T car as you are literally better off blowing said car up with dynamite...

Non OEM, better quality... << ROFL >> 👍  Sure...

[ronwagn + 6,290]

23 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Yup, you want a car to last?  Get rid of anything "automatic"

All "automatic" = is "automatic" maintenance bills.  Give me manual, other than in the transmission... 😁

I agree, but they are no longer offered. My wife wouldn't let me by one probably though.

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 12/28/2021 at 2:45 AM, Boat said:

TEXAS — A report by environmental watchdog group Earthworks found that 69-84% of methane flares in Texas are unpermitted.

Texas can certainly remedy that. They are probably playing stupid and not monitoring them. One man in one little plane with cameras could easily do the job. Better yet just use a couple of drones and hand out stunning fines. We must not allow the waste of our resources.

[Eric Gagen + 713]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

Texas can certainly remedy that. They are probably playing stupid and not monitoring them. One man in one little plane with cameras could easily do the job. Better yet just use a couple of drones and hand out stunning fines. We must not allow the waste of our resources.

As someone who has worked in the field, I can confidently say that a lot of  flaring is a result of unexpected situations and conditions, and the alternative is usually to start killing people (either by blowing them up, or poisoning them to death with H2S) However these issues are responsible for a tiny volume of the gas flared even if in terms of the # of instances they are high, because they tend to be for very short time periods (minutes to hours) and at very low rates (the volume of a tank, or a tubing volume from a well for example) The larger and MUCH more troubling flaring is 'routine' flaring related to continued production of oil and gas wells.  This is something that has been getting clamped down on harder and harder as time goes on, but IMHO Texas is still a bit on the relaxed side compared to a lot of other major hydrocarbon producing states, and could do with some more enforcement.  This is much better than the situation even 5 years ago however, where I would have characterized the rules on flaring and gas venting in Texas as '3rd world' as opposed to 'somewhat lax' now.  That said, enormous progress has been made, and I don't reasonably forsee a return to the 'bad old days' of large gas volumes being flared on a routine basis with rubber stamp permits. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,191]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

I agree, but they are no longer offered. My wife wouldn't let me by one probably though.

 

Yea, shows who really buys nearly everything in this world .... its not MEN!   Hell if it was up to us men, we would probably still be living in caves...

[ronwagn + 6,290]

19 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

As someone who has worked in the field, I can confidently say that a lot of  flaring is a result of unexpected situations and conditions, and the alternative is usually to start killing people (either by blowing them up, or poisoning them to death with H2S) However these issues are responsible for a tiny volume of the gas flared even if in terms of the # of instances they are high, because they tend to be for very short time periods (minutes to hours) and at very low rates (the volume of a tank, or a tubing volume from a well for example) The larger and MUCH more troubling flaring is 'routine' flaring related to continued production of oil and gas wells.  This is something that has been getting clamped down on harder and harder as time goes on, but IMHO Texas is still a bit on the relaxed side compared to a lot of other major hydrocarbon producing states, and could do with some more enforcement.  This is much better than the situation even 5 years ago however, where I would have characterized the rules on flaring and gas venting in Texas as '3rd world' as opposed to 'somewhat lax' now.  That said, enormous progress has been made, and I don't reasonably forsee a return to the 'bad old days' of large gas volumes being flared on a routine basis with rubber stamp permits. 

Thanks, I respect your first hand knowledge. The larger worldwide situation is far worse i think. 

[Boat + 1,324]

On 12/29/2021 at 9:17 AM, Ecocharger said:

What will the New Year bring? Oil will continue to be hot, aided by misguided ESG pressures on banks.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Global-Oil-Demand-Could-Reach-New-Heights-In-2022.html

"...even green and sustainable Europe is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels. And Europe is not among the top consumers of oil—it's emerging Asia that has this pleasure, and all forecasts point towards this demand growing further in the coming years.

OPEC+'s spare capacity stood at 5.11 million bpd as of October this year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. However, spare capacity is not static, and the October figure is actually a substantial decline from the start of 2021 when spare capacity in the extended cartel stood at 9 million bpd. And it could fall further to less than 4 million bpd by the end of next year.

This state of affairs prompted the International Energy Agency, a vocal proponent of the energy transition, to urge more investments in new oil production. Just how serious the situation could become because of this discrepancy shows in the fact that just months earlier, the IEA had called for an end to all new oil and gas investments so the world can reach its net-zero targets.

So it appears that next year will see even stronger oil demand, even with a temporary dip during the first quarter while we come to terms with the omicron variant. And while demand grows stronger, supply growth will continue to lag behind under ESG investor and government pressure."

For the last 70 years oil demand has an average growth of 1.5 mbpd. So Covid trimmed a few million barrels of consumption per day. OPEC+ spare capacity was only 1-2 million barrels per day. Now it’s close to 5 mbpd. It’s to early to bring all of that oil on now. So no. Extra drilling is not needed for some time. OPEC and Russia have plenty of oil if their politics would sell it. Glad I could untwist some of that twisted logic for you. And no. Biden didn’t hurt US production. US production is still keeping up with US consumption without the need of any foreign oil. 
If you watch the drilled but uncompleted EIA chart you will see about 100 wells completed every month more than drilled. But there are plenty of those wells left so no problem. Trust the woke chart reading commenters. They won’t steal your money or attack the Capital. Lol

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 minute ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Yea, shows who really buys nearly everything in this world .... its not MEN!   Hell if it was up to us men, we would probably still be living in caves...

You actually gave me a belly laugh! Sad, but somewhat true.