TailingsPond + 648 GE September 10 5 hours ago, Ecocharger said: I do not comment on every twitch in the market price of oil...I have better things to do than that. Funny you like to think any twitch or hiccup in the e-revolution as a sign it is "over." Yet, oddly enough, it continues to this day. Year-over-year decrease is not a "twitch." Oil is now both short and long-term bearish. If you don't like the taste of crow don't be wrong so much. How is that OXY stock you praised doing? https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=NYSE%3A+OXY Down 13.4% in last month. Down 20% in last year. That is an oil company, not an oil market price, investment in oil is down. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TailingsPond + 648 GE September 10 WTI $66.02 That is a pretty big "twitch!" Put some salt and pepper on your crow to help it go down. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TailingsPond + 648 GE September 10 An economist should know what support and resistance levels are... this is a pattern not a twitch. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TailingsPond + 648 GE September 10 WTI $65.70 that is some twitch! If eco actually had investments he would be caring about this. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,219 DM September 10 1 hour ago, TailingsPond said: WTI $65.70 that is some twitch! If eco actually had investments he would be caring about this. any day now any day On 7/3/2024 at 9:16 PM, Ecocharger said: Demand for oil is hot and getting hotter. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Standard-Chartered-Oil-Rally-Will-Extend-Well-Beyond-90-Per-Barrel.html "Oil is off to a strong start of Q3 with Brent rallying past $86 per barrel. According to commodity analysts at Standard Chartered, the Brent rally is sustainable well past $90/bbl. Standard Chartered: global oil markets will record a deficit in Q3 that will spill over into Q4." 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,428 DL September 11 (edited) On 9/10/2024 at 7:35 AM, notsonice said: Latest estimate: 2.5 percent -- September 09, 2024 The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on September 9, up from 2.1 percent on September 4. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the Institute for Supply Management, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.2 percent and 0.0 percent, respectively, to 3.5 percent and 1.2 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.37 percentage points to -0.40 percentage points. We now have some interesting data on the rapidly developing downturn in general economic demand. There is always a price to be paid for high inflation rates which engender high interest rates. Thanks to the Biden record on high inflationary policy. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Remain-Vulnerable-to-Demand-Fluctuations.html "Weak manufacturing data from Europe, Asia, and the US has signaled a slowdown in global oil demand. The US labor Department's downward revision of new job additions further fueled demand concerns. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, oil prices continue to fall due to prevailing pessimism about demand." "Manufacturing data from key markets in Europe, Asia, and the U.S. showed a slowdown in demand for products, which by extension gets translated into lower demand for energy. In the U.S., the Purchasing Managers’ Index in July fell to the lowest reading in eight months. In the eurozone, the latest PMI reading extended a two-year contraction trend. In China, the PMI reading dropped below 50—the threshold for growth—last month. On top of this disappointing data, the U.S. labor Department had to make a sharp revision on the number of new jobs added over the 12 months to March, as it turned out the actual new job additions were over 800,000 fewer than previously estimated, fueling concern about demand in the world’s biggest consumer of oil." "“Bullish fundamentals continue to play second fiddle to weakening sentiment, with the oil market unable to shake off its recent bearish tendencies,” energy consultancy FGE said as quoted by Reuters." Edited September 11 by Ecocharger Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,219 DM September 11 (edited) 4 hours ago, Ecocharger said: We now have some interesting data on the rapidly developing downturn in general economic demand. There is always a price to be paid for high inflation rates which engender high interest rates. Thanks to the Biden record on high inflationary policy. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Remain-Vulnerable-to-Demand-Fluctuations.html "Weak manufacturing data from Europe, Asia, and the US has signaled a slowdown in global oil demand. The US labor Department's downward revision of new job additions further fueled demand concerns. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, oil prices continue to fall due to prevailing pessimism about demand." "Manufacturing data from key markets in Europe, Asia, and the U.S. showed a slowdown in demand for products, which by extension gets translated into lower demand for energy. In the U.S., the Purchasing Managers’ Index in July fell to the lowest reading in eight months. In the eurozone, the latest PMI reading extended a two-year contraction trend. In China, the PMI reading dropped below 50—the threshold for growth—last month. On top of this disappointing data, the U.S. labor Department had to make a sharp revision on the number of new jobs added over the 12 months to March, as it turned out the actual new job additions were over 800,000 fewer than previously estimated, fueling concern about demand in the world’s biggest consumer of oil." "“Bullish fundamentals continue to play second fiddle to weakening sentiment, with the oil market unable to shake off its recent bearish tendencies,” energy consultancy FGE said as quoted by Reuters." High inflation........old history caused by Oil Prices shooting up through the roof...which caused demand to go poof... you rememeber ??? you cheered on $130 oil now we have commodity deflation.........Oil price now??? guess no one liked the $100 Barrel price and everyone is finding ways to reduce Oil demand.....Demand destruction is the direct result of the inflation causing $100 plus oil brought to you by your dimwitted pals in Russia The demand destruction started 2 years ago....where have you been????? the US has signaled a slowdown in global oil demand????? and manufacturing has been slowing down..... you do realize that oil refining is part of the picture for US manufacturing....so when the price of oil and oil products goes down the total value of manufactured goods go down and when oil demand in barrels goes down so does the total value of US manufacturing US manufacturing is measured in dollars and you got your degree in Economics???????? now back to your big claims you said oil demand was getting hotter and hotter and you quoted the price is going up up up you must live in a world of denial yes the world growth in GDP has been slowing down......China is at 4.5 % Yet the US GDP growth is still humming along at over 2 percent are you still praying for a recession????? all those who hate the US pray for such things and electricity output in the US for all sectors is up 3.4 percent this year ..................and manufacturing is part of this and it is up Electricity demand is shooting up (measured in MWH) and oil demand is going down both in barrels and price (especially in China) Pesky EVs and pesky solar panels....no room for growth in oil demand and the Fed rate ???? enjoy the drop in interest rates.........booms in economies go in line with reducing rates Enjoy Edited September 11 by notsonice Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TailingsPond + 648 GE September 11 4 hours ago, Ecocharger said: "Weak manufacturing data from Europe, Asia, and the US has signaled a slowdown in global oil demand. The US labor Department's downward revision of new job additions further fueled demand concerns. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, oil prices continue to fall due to prevailing pessimism about demand." At least you can stop talking about all that strong demand now. You posted this ^^^ Please remember, you said demand was strong and growing so you are now disagreeing with your own predictions. Dish up the crow. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,428 DL September 11 (edited) 4 hours ago, TailingsPond said: At least you can stop talking about all that strong demand now. You posted this ^^^ Please remember, you said demand was strong and growing so you are now disagreeing with your own predictions. Dish up the crow. You seem to be confused about the causes of inflation, old boy. Inflation is a general condition in the economy caused by too much money supply, which is now being tamed by high interest rates. When that happens, the prices of everything will fall. We are now seeing that happen in the usual way, and of course demand for everything will weaken. The current administration will have to eat crow over this development, as the excess money supply was created to facilitate their plans. Why should I hesitate to cry foul over the mistakes of those who oppose the normal demand for oil? You must be off center. I cited the risk of demand stalling earlier, I guess you must have been falling asleep again. Note that the information about this was apparently delayed until the recent Presidential debate was held...a little boost for the little lady. ".. the U.S. labor Department had to make a sharp revision on the number of new jobs added over the 12 months to March, as it turned out the actual new job additions were over 800,000 fewer than previously estimated, fueling concern about demand in the world’s biggest consumer of oil." Edited September 11 by Ecocharger 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Plant + 2,737 RP September 12 12 hours ago, Ecocharger said: You seem to be confused about the causes of inflation, old boy. Inflation is a general condition in the economy caused by too much money supply, which is now being tamed by high interest rates. When that happens, the prices of everything will fall. We are now seeing that happen in the usual way, and of course demand for everything will weaken. The current administration will have to eat crow over this development, as the excess money supply was created to facilitate their plans. Why should I hesitate to cry foul over the mistakes of those who oppose the normal demand for oil? You must be off center. I cited the risk of demand stalling earlier, I guess you must have been falling asleep again. Note that the information about this was apparently delayed until the recent Presidential debate was held...a little boost for the little lady. ".. the U.S. labor Department had to make a sharp revision on the number of new jobs added over the 12 months to March, as it turned out the actual new job additions were over 800,000 fewer than previously estimated, fueling concern about demand in the world’s biggest consumer of oil." Eco why not just eat that humble pie and admit you were wrong for once? Everyone with a semblance of a brain cell can see that you are! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,428 DL September 12 (edited) 7 hours ago, Rob Plant said: Eco why not just eat that humble pie and admit you were wrong for once? Everyone with a semblance of a brain cell can see that you are! I guess you have a little thin skin today? You have a problem accepting the standard monetarist explanation for the current policies? I pointed out the risks of a potential recession several times. Edited September 12 by Ecocharger Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Plant + 2,737 RP Friday at 07:46 AM 13 hours ago, Ecocharger said: I guess you have a little thin skin today? You have a problem accepting the standard monetarist explanation for the current policies? I pointed out the risks of a potential recession several times. Yes you did but as usual your prediction of a recession in the US never happened! Currently JP Morgan estimates its likelihood by the end of this year to be 35%. So your point is....... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
turbguy + 1,523 Friday at 01:41 PM More "coal news" from Wyoming: https://cowboystatedaily.com/2024/09/12/30m-project-to-move-3-miles-of-u-s-30-to-access-kemmerer-coal-stopped/?utm_source=Klaviyo&utm_medium=campaign&_kx=Fm2KWNHm-QtZS1ku5PUAwaeGOoypnHgRivWLxD6Mgwg.UXPtrV Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,428 DL Friday at 03:13 PM (edited) 7 hours ago, Rob Plant said: Yes you did but as usual your prediction of a recession in the US never happened! Currently JP Morgan estimates its likelihood by the end of this year to be 35%. So your point is....... The article I listed above shows a long group of data showing the probability of a recession or a major slowdown of the world economy currently in progress, which is what should be expected at this stage of the world business cycle. Edited Friday at 03:14 PM by Ecocharger 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ron Wagner + 688 Monday at 04:28 AM On 9/11/2024 at 12:32 PM, notsonice said: High inflation........old history caused by Oil Prices shooting up through the roof...which caused demand to go poof... you rememeber ??? you cheered on $130 oil now we have commodity deflation.........Oil price now??? guess no one liked the $100 Barrel price and everyone is finding ways to reduce Oil demand.....Demand destruction is the direct result of the inflation causing $100 plus oil brought to you by your dimwitted pals in Russia The demand destruction started 2 years ago....where have you been????? the US has signaled a slowdown in global oil demand????? and manufacturing has been slowing down..... you do realize that oil refining is part of the picture for US manufacturing....so when the price of oil and oil products goes down the total value of manufactured goods go down and when oil demand in barrels goes down so does the total value of US manufacturing US manufacturing is measured in dollars and you got your degree in Economics???????? now back to your big claims you said oil demand was getting hotter and hotter and you quoted the price is going up up up you must live in a world of denial yes the world growth in GDP has been slowing down......China is at 4.5 % Yet the US GDP growth is still humming along at over 2 percent are you still praying for a recession????? all those who hate the US pray for such things and electricity output in the US for all sectors is up 3.4 percent this year ..................and manufacturing is part of this and it is up Electricity demand is shooting up (measured in MWH) and oil demand is going down both in barrels and price (especially in China) Pesky EVs and pesky solar panels....no room for growth in oil demand and the Fed rate ???? enjoy the drop in interest rates.........booms in economies go in line with reducing rates Enjoy What do you think is the correlation between a booming economy and a 30 trillion dollar debt that may never be paid off? How about an American auto industry that is dying? Real wages dropping? 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
turbguy + 1,523 Monday at 05:09 AM (edited) 46 minutes ago, Ron Wagner said: What do you think is the correlation between a booming economy and a 30 trillion dollar debt that may never be paid off? How about an American auto industry that is dying? Real wages dropping? It's interesting to ask,who holds that debt? The U.S. national debt is primarily held by domestic investors, accounting for approximately 79% of the total debt held by the public as of December 2023. Foreign investors hold the remaining 21% of the U.S. national debt. The top five foreign holders of U.S. debt are Japan, China, the United Kingdom, Luxembourg, and Canada. China holds only about 12% of that 21%, or about 2.5% (about $750 billion). As of April 2024, the United States held approximately $770 billion in Chinese debt. Hmmm... "We have met the enemy, and they is us". Edited Monday at 05:15 AM by turbguy 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,219 DM Monday at 05:42 AM (edited) 5 hours ago, Ron Wagner said: What do you think is the correlation between a booming economy and a 30 trillion dollar debt that may never be paid off? How about an American auto industry that is dying? Real wages dropping? Well one has to look at what is the US debt....is it just a measure of US dollars in circulation....digital circulation??? one mans debt is another mans wealth Guess the US could print 30 trillion in dollars instead. and extinguish its debt....but the worlds banking system does not use physical paper any more......Try to buy a house with cash these days.....or with a check....good luck.... banking around the world is done with digital money and with wire transfers of digital money....makes you wonder how anyone verifies that the digital dollars where ever issued at one time in the US or someone can just make up a bank in a third world and claim the have dollars and trade them/use them The debt now is just electronic dollars with interest .......... US dollar is unique........one would think that the rest of the world would flee the dollar when all the new debt is issued.....does not happen......why one has to ask ...simple it is the only currency that is held in reserve in all countries...because there is no real viable alternative.... The Debt is the same as printing dollars ..except you get paid interest is it a pyramid scheme???? the US Debt.........of course to a degree...it will never get paid off.....paying it off means less dollars in circulation... see we create more , which ends up in digital bank accounts or digital checking accounts around the world....and all banks and people around the world are addicted to the US dollar.....not gold....not even their own countries currencies Alternatives???? Gold???? forget it...the world is now a digital banking world.......when you want to use your gold you have to convert it into currency and then you have to deposit it (place it in the digital banking world). Heck no one even uses printed money to any degree any more. Land ......is the premium holder of wealth......any one wanting to move to China for its land value?????? nope Russia...unstable government...Germany......?????? bad past history......anywhere in Europe????UK maybe rest of Europe???? good luck...You could say our debt is backed by our land.....our economic system...our legal system....etc my take on the expansion in debt recently was welcomed by nearly every country in the world.....just means more digital dollars in circulation which helps expand economies everywhere... The number one place in the world where people want to be is the US ..........schools, safety, opportunities.....why the US has such a large immigration numbers ...been going on for the last 200 years other currencies The Yen....forget it....the Euro.....give me a break ..we all know the Europeans will never treat each others as equals and a real European Union such as the United States.......The Chinese currency???? people hold Crypto currency in higher regard..which does not say much so when the US issues more debt.......it does not trigger a run on the dollar........as there is no real alternative... Only when the world is oversaturated with US digital dollars will problems occur and this is nowhere near happening.... I myself will never complain about too many dollars in my bank account. You can travel to every country in the world and the Dollar is king even over each countries currency now for cars........Short term answer was Tarriffs....was not a long term solution........Mexico will become the US supplier of all cars very soon and I am talking about Chinese owned car makers moving production and incorporating business and floating stocks on the NYSE in the US and using Mexico to produce cars to take over the US market. Whats it take to do this, US dollars which the Chinese are sitting on at least 3 Trillion US dollars. I have been working in Mexico on and off for the past 20 years.....The planes are full of US engineers travelling to auto part makers owned by US based car makers....as just about every part that takes manual labor for US assembled cars is made in Mexico Only way to stop total wipe out of US Made (or should i say US assembled) is to undo the US Canada Mexico Trade pack....Good luck Mexico is no third world country anymore..........most of it looks like the US , schools...stores....cars.....houses.....businesses.....they just pay people a lot less Edited Monday at 09:48 AM by notsonice 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Plant + 2,737 RP Monday at 07:58 AM Oil Net Short For First Time in History Oil Net Short For First Time in History | OilPrice.com "Oil is strong and getting stronger" 🤣 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,219 DM Monday at 10:02 AM 1 hour ago, Rob Plant said: Oil Net Short For First Time in History Oil Net Short For First Time in History | OilPrice.com "Oil is strong and getting stronger" 🤣 Oil is strong and getting stronger.......spoken by a blind lover of coal and oil the one thing in common with all of the news that is put out on this site....none of the articles addresses the booming EV/plugin hybrid production numbers out of China and the effect on oil demand both short term and long term and the booming Nat gas fueled vehicle boom in the trucking sector in China....... the article you reference, once again mentions nothing on why Oil demand is down while global energy consumption is up up up in 2024 The reality is the situation in China is driving Oil pricing and demand.......as it has for the last 15 years and now.....and it is down down down..... has to scare the crap out of all those who are long on oil.......IE do not get caught with stranded assets IE reserves of untapped oil....... oversupply in Oil production will be the norm for at least the next 3 years as everyone that has any reserves is trying to produce produce produce and cash out fast Saudis have been in denial for the last 2 years.....they seem to think the long term is booming demand.......no one is buying it The Shorts are making boat loads of money....rocky road for those long on Oil at least into 2026 where is the price heading to......$60 oil coming in 2025 ...everyone wins except anyone in the Oil business...... Enjoy the Green agenda.........More Energy is being produced and the air is getting cleaner everyday 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,428 DL Monday at 12:47 PM (edited) https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Peak-Oil-A-Looming-Threat-to-Economic-Stability.html 4 hours ago, Rob Plant said: Oil Net Short For First Time in History Oil Net Short For First Time in History | OilPrice.com "Oil is strong and getting stronger" 🤣 https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Net-Short-For-First-Time-in-History.html "Typically, when oil supply is low, prices tend to rise due to scarcity. However, the current setup is unusual—while physical oil barrels are declining, the financial market appears to be betting on lower prices. For contrarians who thrive on going against the crowd, this could signal an opportunity. They may believe the market is underestimating the potential for future price increases, given the tight supply situation. This tension between the financial and physical sides of the oil market suggests that volatility and price swings may be on the horizon. Keep an eye on these dynamics as they unfold." Edited Monday at 12:48 PM by Ecocharger Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,428 DL Monday at 12:54 PM (edited) The current demand fluctuations for oil appear to be more due to temporary factors rather than structural. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Time-To-Stop-Looking-to-China-for-Oil-Demand-Growth.html "For years, China has been the single biggest driver of oil demand expansion. For the second quarter of this year, China reported economic growth of 4.7%. Despite rebounding Chinese crude imports, analysts expect slower Chinese crude oil demand growth." "... oil imports in China are on the rebound. In August, arrivals rose to the highest in the past 12 months, suggesting the doldrums that the Chinese economy is reportedly in are not that deep after all. The August 2024 import numbers are still lower than the August 2023 average, Reuters’ Clyde Russell noted in a report on the data, by 7%. Even so, at 11.56 million barrels daily, imports were still quite substantial. Part of the reason for the rebound was lower prices, as Reuters’ Russell noted, and these lower prices may well continue stimulating demand, such as it is, for a longer period..." Edited Monday at 12:55 PM by Ecocharger 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TailingsPond + 648 GE Monday at 03:48 PM 2 hours ago, Ecocharger said: The August 2024 import numbers are still lower than the August 2023 average, Reuters’ Clyde Russell noted in a report on the data, by 7%. So even after this little rebound still down 7% YOY. Just read the title, it says to stop doing what you are doing. "Time To Stop Looking to China for Oil Demand Growth" Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ron Wagner + 688 Tuesday at 01:16 AM 20 hours ago, turbguy said: It's interesting to ask,who holds that debt? The U.S. national debt is primarily held by domestic investors, accounting for approximately 79% of the total debt held by the public as of December 2023. Foreign investors hold the remaining 21% of the U.S. national debt. The top five foreign holders of U.S. debt are Japan, China, the United Kingdom, Luxembourg, and Canada. China holds only about 12% of that 21%, or about 2.5% (about $750 billion). As of April 2024, the United States held approximately $770 billion in Chinese debt. Hmmm... "We have met the enemy, and they is us". Black Rock and others are have purchased thousands of homes to use them as rentals, driving up real estate prices in highly populated areas. These transactions are often off the normal records that are looked at to determine housing sales. The legal process to transfer titles on these makes it much easier to repossess them if the buyer misses payments. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TailingsPond + 648 GE Tuesday at 03:59 AM (edited) 2 hours ago, Ron Wagner said: Black Rock and others are have purchased thousands of homes to use them as rentals, driving up real estate prices in highly populated areas. These transactions are often off the normal records that are looked at to determine housing sales. The legal process to transfer titles on these makes it much easier to repossess them if the buyer misses payments. USA company, just saying. Eat your young. Edited Tuesday at 03:59 AM by TailingsPond 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,219 DM 5 hours ago Ecochump ....did you get the news.........are you partying???????? oh wait the actual prices declined Oil Prices WTI CRUDE • 70.41 -0.78 -1.10% BRENT CRUDE •10 mins 73.14 -0.56 -0.76% did you catch the highlights from the article https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Rise-on-Jumbo-Fed-Rate-Cut.html Oil prices began responding to the rate cut immediately, with downward trending prices flattening out just minutes after the rate cut announcement. Huh???????? downward trending prices flattening out?????? Ecochump I will let you reconcile this with your oil demand is getting hot and hotter... oh the other highlight.... Making America Great Again Inflation in the U.S. is now essentially tamed, and this first Fed rate cut since COVID is likely to slash the costs of borrowing from now until the presidential elections, in a boost for the Democrats. Rise on Jumbo Fed Rate Cut | OilPrice.com Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com https://oilprice.com › Latest Energy News 54 minutes ago — At 2:11 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Brent crude was trading up 0.11% at $73.78, while WTI was trading down 0.10% at $71.12. The DOW also jumped 30 ... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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