GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,130]

On 3/3/2022 at 11:56 AM, Eric Gagen said:

It's all about the COST of the replacement parts, and most critically the LABOR of installing them.  Things like engine blocks, and transmissions can fail.  body frames can bend - these things are technically repairable, but they are extremely expensive in terms of labor to work on.  Then there are the 1,000 things made of plastic, or thin metal which will eventually wear out.  Individually they aren't very expensive.  But lets look at your 15 year old car.  There are are 500 of those little things that are going out that cost $5 each (headliner clips, radio buttons, door switches, fuse box trays, the hood latch, etc.  , that's $2,500  AND you need a new transmission which is going to cost $10,000 in parts and labor to replace, AND the mechanics are telling you that you going to need a new head gasket soon for $3,000 AND the heater core is cracked and it's going to be $1,500 to install, then guess what - the value of your car is zero.  Throw it out, and start over, because the car is worthless. 

Eric, I take it you have never been poor... Good for you.   Let me tell you something basic.... The cost of LABOR is free, as YOU do it instead of watching some Shit TV show or type shit posts on the internet.  Not someone else.  Or your buddy comes over and work on it as he has the tools/knowledge and you Shit the breeze for a while.  The parts are effectively free as you can get them from the wrecking yard or buy new(they are cheap), or you just buy 2 junkers and when one dies(it will) you have a backup as your family needs another car anyways most likely.  If you really want to read below... Ok, but I was just bitching... 🤡

Lets look at your examples: Headliner clips... NOT needed, use glue.  radio buttons... who cares, rip old radio out and put in an ~essentially free one from the wrecking yard, or do without a radio at all.  Door switches, easy to replace, or simply ignore when they die.  Fuse box trays?   = WTF?  No, fuses do not die, and sure as Hell the tray they sit in do not die.  Anyone telling you otherwise is LYING to you and you were the SUCKER to accept their word.  Let me guess your "knowledge base" of cars requires head light fluid to be replaced as well?  The hood latch... WTF?  Never even seen a broken hood latch other than in a wreck and even if I had to replace it or fix it would be dirt cheap/simple    And why would I need a new transmission?  Do not buy CVT trash.  As a used car buyer you start by not being an ignorant idiot grabbing any model.  Look up which car has been produced the longest which routinely runs the most mileage and you buy that car and make sure it is not a new model year unless you know specifically that model openly admits to fixing a problem from previous generation.  New Head gasket, cost?  Less than $70 and that is for an ENTIRE gasket kit doing everything.  Injector gasket kit is ~$15... << Rolls eyes >> are you this incompetent you cannot replace a simple head gasket in a couple hours of your own labor?    Literally all you need is a socket set, screw driver and willingness to wash your hands.  Heat cores... get one from a wrecking yard and you can replace it yourself on most cars in a mere hour for ~$20, or refurbished one for ~$80, or do without the heater.

Let me throw in others you can do for free which equipment manufacturers say you have to replace.  EGR valves every 100,000 miles.  Complete horse pucky.  Take it off, open it and clean out the soot and put it back on.  Spark plugs essentially last 200,000 miles today if not longer and never need replacing.  Said EGR valve?  They aren't actually valves.  Spark ignition coils go out on new cars around ~150,000 -->200,000+ miles.  Buy a couple spares($50), so when one dies you can easily replace it(single bolt holds them in).  If your car suddenly starts running bad, that is it most likely.  Pull wires off spark ignition coil, replace.  Should take less than 10 minutes.  Poor fuel mileage( you are tracking, this is an OLD car) tells you either bad injectors(most likely), or compression/blow by or oxygen sensor.  Oxygen sensor on exhaust manifold can be a bitch and a half to take out, but a simple torch takes care of that generally speaking. 

Yes, old used cars are near worthless... that is THE POINT.  Some tweedle dee has determined it is dead even though they drive just fine because hoity toity people refuse to WORK on their own cars fixing them and instead demand to be pampered by having other people do the work and therefore are "worth less than the hoity toity labor bill to fix"... or you get OFF your hoity toity ass and pay yourself to fix said car.  It helps not sitting on your ass your entire life having other people change your diapers.

Oh yea, and if you are smart?  Get an old car which does not have to pass emissions idiocy.  Here where I live, it is any car older than 15 years old.  All modern cars easily pass 15 years without issue anyways so "inspection" or "emissions" is nothing but a government scam anyways. 

[Boat + 1,315]

On 3/4/2022 at 7:35 PM, notsonice said:

Panasonic plans new massive battery plant in U.S. to supply Tesla -NHK

TOKYO, March 4 (Reuters) - Japan's Panasonic Corp (6752.T) is looking to purchase land in the United States for a mega-factory to make a new type of electric vehicle (EV) battery for Tesla Inc (TSLA.O), public broadcaster NHK reported on Friday.

Panasonic is looking at building the factory, to cost several billion dollars, in either Oklahoma or Kansas close to Texas, where Tesla is preparing a new EV plant, NHK reported. NHK gave no timeline for Panasonic's U.S. project.

 

NHK did not cite the source of its information. Panasonic said the reported plan was not something it announced.

A long-time supplier for Tesla, Panasonic has said it plans to begin mass-producing the new type of lithium-ion battery for Tesla before the end of March 2024 with two new production lines at its western Japanese plant in Wakayama.

The 4680 format (46 millimetres wide and 80 millimetres tall) battery is about five times bigger than those currently supplied to Tesla, meaning the U.S. car maker will be able to lower production costs and improve vehicle range.

 

Panasonic's relationship with Tesla stretches back more than a decade when Tesla signed an agreement that made the Japanese company its key battery supplier.

Since then, Tesla has ramped up production and diversified its supply chain to other firms, including Chinese manufacturers of cheaper lithium iron phosphate (LFP) powerpacks such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co (CATL) (300750.SZ).

South Korea LG Energy Solution Ltd (373220.KS) also plans to make 4680 batteries, sources told Reuters last year.

You can add the 4680/production lines at Texas and Germany. As a side note add the battery factory for grid storage in Calif. One year to completion. Tesla is doubling the size of the China EV factory. In a couple years it will do 2 mil EV’s a year. As Echo would say, yet a drop in the bucket. I say the drop is getting much bigger. When is peak oil? Did Putin kill any chance of a new peak? Is this just a case of even further pent up demand? 

[Eric Gagen + 713]

5 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Eric, I take it you have never been poor... Good for you.   Let me tell you something basic.... The cost of LABOR is free, as YOU do it instead of watching some Shit TV show or type shit posts on the internet.  Not someone else.  Or your buddy comes over and work on it as he has the tools/knowledge and you Shit the breeze for a while.  The parts are effectively free as you can get them from the wrecking yard or buy new(they are cheap), or you just buy 2 junkers and when one dies(it will) you have a backup as your family needs another car anyways most likely.  If you really want to read below... Ok, but I was just bitching... 🤡

Lets look at your examples: Headliner clips... NOT needed, use glue.  radio buttons... who cares, rip old radio out and put in an ~essentially free one from the wrecking yard, or do without a radio at all.  Door switches, easy to replace, or simply ignore when they die.  Fuse box trays?   = WTF?  No, fuses do not die, and sure as Hell the tray they sit in do not die.  Anyone telling you otherwise is LYING to you and you were the SUCKER to accept their word.  Let me guess your "knowledge base" of cars requires head light fluid to be replaced as well?  The hood latch... WTF?  Never even seen a broken hood latch other than in a wreck and even if I had to replace it or fix it would be dirt cheap/simple    And why would I need a new transmission?  Do not buy CVT trash.  As a used car buyer you start by not being an ignorant idiot grabbing any model.  Look up which car has been produced the longest which routinely runs the most mileage and you buy that car and make sure it is not a new model year unless you know specifically that model openly admits to fixing a problem from previous generation.  New Head gasket, cost?  Less than $70 and that is for an ENTIRE gasket kit doing everything.  Injector gasket kit is ~$15... << Rolls eyes >> are you this incompetent you cannot replace a simple head gasket in a couple hours of your own labor?    Literally all you need is a socket set, screw driver and willingness to wash your hands.  Heat cores... get one from a wrecking yard and you can replace it yourself on most cars in a mere hour for ~$20, or refurbished one for ~$80, or do without the heater.

Let me throw in others you can do for free which equipment manufacturers say you have to replace.  EGR valves every 100,000 miles.  Complete horse pucky.  Take it off, open it and clean out the soot and put it back on.  Spark plugs essentially last 200,000 miles today if not longer and never need replacing.  Said EGR valve?  They aren't actually valves.  Spark ignition coils go out on new cars around ~150,000 -->200,000+ miles.  Buy a couple spares($50), so when one dies you can easily replace it(single bolt holds them in).  If your car suddenly starts running bad, that is it most likely.  Pull wires off spark ignition coil, replace.  Should take less than 10 minutes.  Poor fuel mileage( you are tracking, this is an OLD car) tells you either bad injectors(most likely), or compression/blow by or oxygen sensor.  Oxygen sensor on exhaust manifold can be a bitch and a half to take out, but a simple torch takes care of that generally speaking. 

Yes, old used cars are near worthless... that is THE POINT.  Some tweedle dee has determined it is dead even though they drive just fine because hoity toity people refuse to WORK on their own cars fixing them and instead demand to be pampered by having other people do the work and therefore are "worth less than the hoity toity labor bill to fix"... or you get OFF your hoity toity ass and pay yourself to fix said car.  It helps not sitting on your ass your entire life having other people change your diapers.

Oh yea, and if you are smart?  Get an old car which does not have to pass emissions idiocy.  Here where I live, it is any car older than 15 years old.  All modern cars easily pass 15 years without issue anyways so "inspection" or "emissions" is nothing but a government scam anyways. 

Your list of high handed assumptions is enormous, but let me start with the really big ones - some of them apply to me, and some of them are more general:

• You assume that I have the knowledge, or buddies that do:  This is a false statement in my case.  I once was poor, but at that time I ALSO lacked knowledge of how to repair things, and friends with that knowledge. Since then, I have moved on, but without ever gaining an extensive knowledge of vehicle repair (although I have some)  and I still don't have friends with extensive mechanical knowledge.  If you do,  well and good, but that's not the norm. 
• You assume that my 'free time' is wasted, and that there isn't anything else to do with it.  This is a false statement in my case, and a false statement in the case of most people.  We have other things to do with our lives.  In my particular case, I am working on contract.  The more hours I waste learning how to do automotive repair (or doing it) the less money I make.  There is literally a dollar cost for the time it takes me to do my own repairs.
• You assume that everyone has free time to wander around junkyards trying to figure out how to get parts for their vehicles.  Again, a false statement for most people
• You assume that we all have total choice in what vehicles we get to purchase, AND complete knowledge of those vehicles.  IN my case that has been false for the last 3 used vehicles I have purchased.  One of them was a used vehicle where the seller purposely hid information about the car.  One of them was a required purchase when our company vehicles got pulled, and I had 7 days to buy a vehicle, and one of them was given to me.  These aren't unusual circumstances.  When people get a vehicle (especially if they are looking for a deal on a used vehicle) you take what you can find and get within the time available.  
• You assume that it's merely 'wasting' time that prevents people from repairing their vehicles.  In my case, and in the case of most people that is false.  People need their vehicles to go to work, get food, etc.  Most workplaces will fire you if you cannot arrive at work for more than a day or two.  They MUST have their vehicle and if it isn't functional they MUST be made functional as fast as possible.  This doesn't leave a lot of time to self diagnose the problem.  You either fix it quickly, or you loose your income.  
• In your example about the head gasket, you falsely assume the physical layout of the engine in the vehicle.  In my example of the head gaskets, the back cylinders are behind the opening for the hood.  In order to remove the engine heads, the radiator and front cams have to be removed from the block, the block unbolted from the transmission, and the block has to be pulled out of the car with an engine hoist.   THEN you can get to the heads.  Your statement that 'anyone can do it with a socket set' is false.  
• You assume that the cost of tools required to perform maintenance work is negligable - in fact you don't even mention it.  That is false. In many cases the cost of those tools is not negligable.  It doesn't take up a large part of the cost of getting work done at a professional shop, but they can amortize the cost over many projects.  Another cost of tools is having space to store them.  I happen to have enough space 'lying around' to accomadate a lot of things, but many people live in apartments, or other forms of living arrangements where they can NOT reasonably have a lot of tools.  In fact many of them don't even have a place to park a car and do work.  Ever tried to do automotive repairs while parked on the side of the road? It's not going to work out to well for you.  
• You assume that everyone is perfectly content with a vehicle which barely operates, and requires constant personal hands on maintenance.  That is usually a false statement.  A lot of people have a true need for a reliable vehicle.  The elderly; parents of young babies; people who live in areas with low population densith and extreme environments, and people who routinely take long distance trips MUST have reliable vehicles, because the consequences of a random breakdown can be a disaster.  

I know how to change spark plugs, but as you point out that's not a useful skill.  I don't live somewhere that 'emissions' testing exists.  

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,539]

4 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

Your list of high handed assumptions is enormous, but let me start with the really big ones - some of them apply to me, and some of them are more general:

• You assume that I have the knowledge, or buddies that do:  This is a false statement in my case.  I once was poor, but at that time I ALSO lacked knowledge of how to repair things, and friends with that knowledge. Since then, I have moved on, but without ever gaining an extensive knowledge of vehicle repair (although I have some)  and I still don't have friends with extensive mechanical knowledge.  If you do,  well and good, but that's not the norm. 
• You assume that my 'free time' is wasted, and that there isn't anything else to do with it.  This is a false statement in my case, and a false statement in the case of most people.  We have other things to do with our lives.  In my particular case, I am working on contract.  The more hours I waste learning how to do automotive repair (or doing it) the less money I make.  There is literally a dollar cost for the time it takes me to do my own repairs.
• You assume that everyone has free time to wander around junkyards trying to figure out how to get parts for their vehicles.  Again, a false statement for most people
• You assume that we all have total choice in what vehicles we get to purchase, AND complete knowledge of those vehicles.  IN my case that has been false for the last 3 used vehicles I have purchased.  One of them was a used vehicle where the seller purposely hid information about the car.  One of them was a required purchase when our company vehicles got pulled, and I had 7 days to buy a vehicle, and one of them was given to me.  These aren't unusual circumstances.  When people get a vehicle (especially if they are looking for a deal on a used vehicle) you take what you can find and get within the time available.  
• You assume that it's merely 'wasting' time that prevents people from repairing their vehicles.  In my case, and in the case of most people that is false.  People need their vehicles to go to work, get food, etc.  Most workplaces will fire you if you cannot arrive at work for more than a day or two.  They MUST have their vehicle and if it isn't functional they MUST be made functional as fast as possible.  This doesn't leave a lot of time to self diagnose the problem.  You either fix it quickly, or you loose your income.  
• In your example about the head gasket, you falsely assume the physical layout of the engine in the vehicle.  In my example of the head gaskets, the back cylinders are behind the opening for the hood.  In order to remove the engine heads, the radiator and front cams have to be removed from the block, the block unbolted from the transmission, and the block has to be pulled out of the car with an engine hoist.   THEN you can get to the heads.  Your statement that 'anyone can do it with a socket set' is false.  
• You assume that the cost of tools required to perform maintenance work is negligable - in fact you don't even mention it.  That is false. In many cases the cost of those tools is not negligable.  It doesn't take up a large part of the cost of getting work done at a professional shop, but they can amortize the cost over many projects.  Another cost of tools is having space to store them.  I happen to have enough space 'lying around' to accomadate a lot of things, but many people live in apartments, or other forms of living arrangements where they can NOT reasonably have a lot of tools.  In fact many of them don't even have a place to park a car and do work.  Ever tried to do automotive repairs while parked on the side of the road? It's not going to work out to well for you.  
• You assume that everyone is perfectly content with a vehicle which barely operates, and requires constant personal hands on maintenance.  That is usually a false statement.  A lot of people have a true need for a reliable vehicle.  The elderly; parents of young babies; people who live in areas with low population densith and extreme environments, and people who routinely take long distance trips MUST have reliable vehicles, because the consequences of a random breakdown can be a disaster.  

I know how to change spark plugs, but as you point out that's not a useful skill.  I don't live somewhere that 'emissions' testing exists.  

Good post Mr Gagen actually great post. The auto industry is not perfect by any means. It is full of people some good some bad, but Mr Gagen it is a eco system that has been built over 100 yrs.

Built in checks and balances have evolved over time to correct bad practices. In fact the world has never known such a successful self sustaining system,  mfg's across the world have dug and clawed to get a existinence in this system. When this system is dismantled or damaged only chaos remains, Detroit MI is a very good example. Below a very controversial topic, in fact the topic has torn at the fabric of this country..it just is what it is.  Before one tears down the wall, understand what the wall actually does.

 

Decline In U.S. Manufacturing Hits African-Americans Hardest

Staying with businesses, we're going to spend a few minutes talking about manufacturing jobs. Over the past 40 years, about 7 million U.S. manufacturing jobs have disappeared. A new report from an advocacy group funded by both labor groups and manufacturers is saying that these losses have hurt many workers, but they've had a particularly dire impact on African-Americans. The report is called "Unmade In America: Industrial Flight And The Decline Of Black Communities." The group also says that these negative effects can be turned around. They make suggestions to do just that through infrastructure

 

[kshithij Sharma + 78]

On 3/5/2022 at 4:24 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

I know that it is irrelevant how many used vehicles are transacted. It makes no difference whether people hold onto them for 20 years or buy and sell every month. What matters is how many vehicles are in the fleet and every year the number of ICE vehicles is decreasing because old ICE retirees exceed the number of new ICE.

 

On 3/5/2022 at 4:34 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

The only point that matters is that EV market share is increasing which by definition means ICE market share is decreasing.

18% is so last year. If you could read you would see that the UK is now at 25% PEV new sales. ICE dominance is shrinking fast.

There is one big problem with quoting numbers of EV sales. Most of the EV sales are in China (more than 50%) and most of these EVs being sold are mini-cars with range of just 80miles per charge and hybrids which actually don't count as pure EVs. Only BEV (Battery EV) cars are true EVs in real sense. These mini EVs and hybrids are simply distorting the numbers. Mini-EVs with such low range can never be used as full fledge cars and the owners will have to have a 2nd car for long or intercity travel. So, the numbers you are quoting to claim success of EVs is not giving a true picture

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

6 minutes ago, kshithij Sharma said:

 

There is one big problem with quoting numbers of EV sales. Most of the EV sales are in China (more than 50%) and most of these EVs being sold are mini-cars with range of just 80miles per charge and hybrids which actually don't count as pure EVs. Only BEV (Battery EV) cars are true EVs in real sense. These mini EVs and hybrids are simply distorting the numbers. Mini-EVs with such low range can never be used as full fledge cars and the owners will have to have a 2nd car for long or intercity travel. So, the numbers you are quoting to claim success of EVs is not giving a true picture

So the 25% PEV share in UK is actually being sold in China? What BS. Next thing you will be telling us that Venezuela oil is from tar sands.

I quote PEV sales, they can all run on pure electricity from a plug.

Edited March 6, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[kshithij Sharma + 78]

4 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

So the 25% PEV share in UK is actually being sold in China? What BS. Next thing you will be telling us that Venezuela oil is from tar sands.

I quote PEV sales, they can all run on pure electricity from a plug.

https://insideevs.com/news/565442/uk-plugin-car-sales-january2022/

UK's PEV sales is 12.5% in January 2022. Rest is PHEV sales which can't be considered as EV. Moreover, in 2021 the PEV sales was 11.6% for the entire year and is a more reliable figure as it is annualised, thereby leaving seasonality out of it.

Good luck buying Venezuelan oil stocks at the same price as normal crude oil saying repeatedly that Venezuelan oil is not tar sands.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

The Green Revolution has hit a terminal road bump, which looks to place limits on wild revolutionary undefined federal regulations. 

Rational though will prevail on this.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Coal-Country-Court-Case-Could-Transform-Americas-Climate-Regulation.html

"Several legal observers have questioned whether the states and coal interests even have a legal right to bring this case before the Supreme Court since the lower court’s final ruling is awaiting further power plant emissions regulations by the EPA. Nevertheless, the West Virginia solicitor requested that the Supreme Court invalidate the lower court’s ruling (which put on hold Trump’s Affordable Clean Energy Rule) stating that West Virginia. would benefit (economically) from a Supreme Court decision that reimposed more lenient greenhouse gas regulations. The US Solicitor General, representing the Biden administration, suggested that the Republicans and their allies in the coal industry were attempting to preemptively constrain the power of the EPA in future rulemaking.

Interestingly, it was not clear from the justices’ comments whether there was unanimity that the major questions doctrine applied in this case. It was clear however that justices Roberts, Alito, and Kavanaugh did see implications for the major questions doctrine while justices Barrett, Thomas, and Gorsuch seemed less convinced. (As an aside we should point out that Gorsuch’s mother was head of the EPA under President Reagan.)

Because of the oddness of this case, essentially challenging a minor Obama-era power plant regulation that never went into effect, it’s very tough to guess how the court will ultimately rule. But it is clear to us that the court will remain sensitive to any administrative policy that — in the court’s view— exercises an expansive use of federal regulatory power. A Supreme Court decision, in this case, is expected sometime this summer. Depending on how it goes, it could have seismic ramifications for the American regulatory process. "

Edited March 6, 2022 by Ecocharger

[Eric Gagen + 713]

16 minutes ago, kshithij Sharma said:

 

There is one big problem with quoting numbers of EV sales. Most of the EV sales are in China (more than 50%) and most of these EVs being sold are mini-cars with range of just 80miles per charge and hybrids which actually don't count as pure EVs. Only BEV (Battery EV) cars are true EVs in real sense. These mini EVs and hybrids are simply distorting the numbers. Mini-EVs with such low range can never be used as full fledge cars and the owners will have to have a 2nd car for long or intercity travel. So, the numbers you are quoting to claim success of EVs is not giving a true picture

If they were available for sale here in the US, my wife could actually make tremendous practical use of a 'min-car' with an 80 mile range.  We were analysing her usage the other day, and her total drive distance per day averages around 20 miles.  On the very few days when she would have to go further, she and I could swap cars, since most days it would work for me too.  We would still need one 'full scale' long range vehicle (EV or HC, but we don't need two of them.  

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

10 hours ago, Boat said:

You can add the 4680/production lines at Texas and Germany. As a side note add the battery factory for grid storage in Calif. One year to completion. Tesla is doubling the size of the China EV factory. In a couple years it will do 2 mil EV’s a year. As Echo would say, yet a drop in the bucket. I say the drop is getting much bigger. When is peak oil? Did Putin kill any chance of a new peak? Is this just a case of even further pent up demand? 

"Peak oil" is a myth concocted by Green Dreamers...oil demand will continue to increase going forward.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

14 hours ago, notsonice said:

Coal ,2021 a dead cat bounce. Look at the last 3 months of 2021.......Coal cratered and resumed its path to zero in the US. Enjoy

2022 more coal fired power plants shutting down and no new ones being constructed....Coal production will decrease again

 

United States coal generation (GWh)^[43]

Year Total % of total Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2001 1,903,955   177,287 149,735 155,269 140,671 151,593 162,616 179,060 183,116 154,158 148,931 144,117 157,402

2002 1,933,131   164,358 143,049 151,486 142,305 151,406 164,668 183,195 179,955 165,366 159,099 156,054 172,190

2003 1,973,736   181,313 156,982 155,002 141,960 150,263 162,285 181,852 185,332 164,910 159,323 158,223 176,291

2004 1,978,359   180,657 161,503 154,288 141,471 157,076 167,642 181,492 178,181 164,253 157,605 157,436 176,755

2005 2,012,874   177,014 155,818 163,613 143,083 153,958 174,867 186,091 187,574 171,656 162,437 158,798 177,965

2006 1,990,511   169,236 158,616 161,325 141,426 157,010 169,693 187,821 189,455 161,590 161,390 159,440 173,509

2007 2,016,455   175,739 163,603 159,811 146,250 157,513 173,513 185,054 190,135 169,391 162,234 159,382 173,830

2008 1,985,800   182,876 166,666 160,743 146,983 154,916 171,043 186,733 180,576 161,356 151,841 154,281 167,786

2009 1,755,905   171,925 140,916 135,530 125,935 131,673 148,087 158,234 163,260 137,145 139,956 136,810 166,434

2010 1,847,289   173,320 153,044 144,406 126,952 143,272 165,491 179,600 177,745 148,746 132,270 135,185 167,258

2011 1,733,341   170,803 138,311 134,845 124,488 137,102 158,055 176,586 171,281 140,941 126,627 121,463 132,929

2012 1,514,043   129,091 113,872 105,526 96,285 115,983 131,261 160,450 152,181 125,589 120,999 128,727 134,079

2013 1,581,116   138,105 123,547 130,634 111,835 119,513 138,283 152,867 149,426 133,110 120,996 120,940 141,860

2014 1,581,710   157,097 143,294 136,443 109,281 118,786 137,577 149,627 148,452 126,110 111,296 119,127 124,620

2015 1,352,400   132,451 126,977 108,488 88,989 104,585 125,673 139,100 134,670 117,986 96,759 87,227 89,495

2016 1,239,129   113,459 92,705 72,173 72,113 81,695 116,034 136,316 135,635 114,118 99,194 86,940 118,747

2017 1,205,835   115,333 86,822 89,365 81,335 92,777 107,508 127,698 119,488 98,202 89,776 90,986 106,545

2018 1,149,487   119,284 82,050 80,626 73,346 85,227 101,503 115,376 115,129 96,544 87,264 92,819 100,319

2019 964,958   100,905 79,929 78,352 59,922 71,885 78,540 100,771 94,040 85,707 66,777 75,549 72,581

2020 773,393   65,140 56,201 50,731 40,675 46,527 65,283 89,709 91,145 68,407 59,805 61,182 78,588

2021 898,680   81,483 87,849 62,037 53,989 63,900 87,356 101,600 101,923 78,891 62,614 57,160 59,878 

Coal is up worldwide, read the news, buddy.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,539]

1 minute ago, Ecocharger said:

"Peak oil" is a myth concocted by Green Dreamers...oil demand will continue to increase going forward.

I do believe a guy named Al Gore coined the phrase. The man responsible for the development and implementation of the internet.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

On 3/5/2022 at 2:41 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

UK new ICE sales keep crashing.

 

 

Still about 1% of total vehicle sales, just an eye-dropper of a drop. As usual you only look at partial numbers, Jay.

You never did take an econometrics course, did you Jay?

[kshithij Sharma + 78]

1 minute ago, Ecocharger said:

"Peak oil" is a myth concocted by Green Dreamers...oil demand will continue to increase going forward.

Peak oil from oil supply peaking due to resource depletion is true. But it is vastly different from the peak oil theory currently in existence. Current theory simply assumes a bell curve which is dumb. In reality oil can be extracted in large quantities by drilling more wells. Oil per well shows a bell curve but overall oil production will not as more wells can be drilled as oil field nears depletion. So, in reality, the peak oil will happen just a few years before the oil field completely dries out rather than a slow depletion

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

On 3/4/2022 at 6:04 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

The only point that matters is that EV market share is increasing which by definition means ICE market share is decreasing.

18% is so last year. If you could read you would see that the UK is now at 25% PEV new sales. ICE dominance is shrinking fast.

No, Jay, what matters is percentage of vehicles sold, which is still under 1% for the EV segment.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

12 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Eric, I take it you have never been poor... Good for you.   Let me tell you something basic.... The cost of LABOR is free, as YOU do it instead of watching some Shit TV show or type shit posts on the internet.  Not someone else.  Or your buddy comes over and work on it as he has the tools/knowledge and you Shit the breeze for a while.  The parts are effectively free as you can get them from the wrecking yard or buy new(they are cheap), or you just buy 2 junkers and when one dies(it will) you have a backup as your family needs another car anyways most likely.  If you really want to read below... Ok, but I was just bitching... 🤡

Lets look at your examples: Headliner clips... NOT needed, use glue.  radio buttons... who cares, rip old radio out and put in an ~essentially free one from the wrecking yard, or do without a radio at all.  Door switches, easy to replace, or simply ignore when they die.  Fuse box trays?   = WTF?  No, fuses do not die, and sure as Hell the tray they sit in do not die.  Anyone telling you otherwise is LYING to you and you were the SUCKER to accept their word.  Let me guess your "knowledge base" of cars requires head light fluid to be replaced as well?  The hood latch... WTF?  Never even seen a broken hood latch other than in a wreck and even if I had to replace it or fix it would be dirt cheap/simple    And why would I need a new transmission?  Do not buy CVT trash.  As a used car buyer you start by not being an ignorant idiot grabbing any model.  Look up which car has been produced the longest which routinely runs the most mileage and you buy that car and make sure it is not a new model year unless you know specifically that model openly admits to fixing a problem from previous generation.  New Head gasket, cost?  Less than $70 and that is for an ENTIRE gasket kit doing everything.  Injector gasket kit is ~$15... << Rolls eyes >> are you this incompetent you cannot replace a simple head gasket in a couple hours of your own labor?    Literally all you need is a socket set, screw driver and willingness to wash your hands.  Heat cores... get one from a wrecking yard and you can replace it yourself on most cars in a mere hour for ~$20, or refurbished one for ~$80, or do without the heater.

Let me throw in others you can do for free which equipment manufacturers say you have to replace.  EGR valves every 100,000 miles.  Complete horse pucky.  Take it off, open it and clean out the soot and put it back on.  Spark plugs essentially last 200,000 miles today if not longer and never need replacing.  Said EGR valve?  They aren't actually valves.  Spark ignition coils go out on new cars around ~150,000 -->200,000+ miles.  Buy a couple spares($50), so when one dies you can easily replace it(single bolt holds them in).  If your car suddenly starts running bad, that is it most likely.  Pull wires off spark ignition coil, replace.  Should take less than 10 minutes.  Poor fuel mileage( you are tracking, this is an OLD car) tells you either bad injectors(most likely), or compression/blow by or oxygen sensor.  Oxygen sensor on exhaust manifold can be a bitch and a half to take out, but a simple torch takes care of that generally speaking. 

Yes, old used cars are near worthless... that is THE POINT.  Some tweedle dee has determined it is dead even though they drive just fine because hoity toity people refuse to WORK on their own cars fixing them and instead demand to be pampered by having other people do the work and therefore are "worth less than the hoity toity labor bill to fix"... or you get OFF your hoity toity ass and pay yourself to fix said car.  It helps not sitting on your ass your entire life having other people change your diapers.

Oh yea, and if you are smart?  Get an old car which does not have to pass emissions idiocy.  Here where I live, it is any car older than 15 years old.  All modern cars easily pass 15 years without issue anyways so "inspection" or "emissions" is nothing but a government scam anyways. 

My system has been to give away old cars to my kids. We have given away about 14 over the years. They were old and used up to about 100,000 to 140,000. I know that is not many miles but I didn't want to mess with them. My kids didn't take proper care of them, and when they did, we ended up paying for the bill in most cases. Several ended up totaled also. People, like us, who can afford new cars usually buy them and pass on their cars to someone or sell them or trade them in. I have only traded one car in in my life. 

Right now we have three low mile cars and may never use them up ourselves. My smallest only has 10,000 miles on it and will be getting a cruise control added for my wife. We will take it on our next California trip, due to the cost of gasoline. Forty MPG is hard to beat and less expensive overall since the car only cost us $14,000 new for our Mitsubishi Mirage. The critics hate it, we love it. I met a guy who had 250,000 miles on it and drove it in the Rockies much of the time. Slow lane uphill but he passed us on the downhill. I met him at a gas station. He said his only problem was with some kind of spring in the A.C. that he has fixed himself three times. 😊

[TailingsPond + 467]

15 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Eric, I take it you have never been poor... Good for you.   Let me tell you something basic.... The cost of LABOR is free, as YOU do it instead of watching some Shit TV show or type shit posts on the internet.  Not someone else.  Or your buddy comes over and work on it as he has the tools/knowledge and you Shit the breeze for a while.  The parts are effectively free as you can get them from the wrecking yard or buy new(they are cheap), or you just buy 2 junkers and when one dies(it will) you have a backup as your family needs another car anyways most likely.  If you really want to read below... Ok, but I was just bitching... 🤡

Lets look at your examples: Headliner clips... NOT needed, use glue.  radio buttons... who cares, rip old radio out and put in an ~essentially free one from the wrecking yard, or do without a radio at all.  Door switches, easy to replace, or simply ignore when they die.  Fuse box trays?   = WTF?  No, fuses do not die, and sure as Hell the tray they sit in do not die.  Anyone telling you otherwise is LYING to you and you were the SUCKER to accept their word.  Let me guess your "knowledge base" of cars requires head light fluid to be replaced as well?  The hood latch... WTF?  Never even seen a broken hood latch other than in a wreck and even if I had to replace it or fix it would be dirt cheap/simple    And why would I need a new transmission?  Do not buy CVT trash.  As a used car buyer you start by not being an ignorant idiot grabbing any model.  Look up which car has been produced the longest which routinely runs the most mileage and you buy that car and make sure it is not a new model year unless you know specifically that model openly admits to fixing a problem from previous generation.  New Head gasket, cost?  Less than $70 and that is for an ENTIRE gasket kit doing everything.  Injector gasket kit is ~$15... << Rolls eyes >> are you this incompetent you cannot replace a simple head gasket in a couple hours of your own labor?    Literally all you need is a socket set, screw driver and willingness to wash your hands.  Heat cores... get one from a wrecking yard and you can replace it yourself on most cars in a mere hour for ~$20, or refurbished one for ~$80, or do without the heater.

Let me throw in others you can do for free which equipment manufacturers say you have to replace.  EGR valves every 100,000 miles.  Complete horse pucky.  Take it off, open it and clean out the soot and put it back on.  Spark plugs essentially last 200,000 miles today if not longer and never need replacing.  Said EGR valve?  They aren't actually valves.  Spark ignition coils go out on new cars around ~150,000 -->200,000+ miles.  Buy a couple spares($50), so when one dies you can easily replace it(single bolt holds them in).  If your car suddenly starts running bad, that is it most likely.  Pull wires off spark ignition coil, replace.  Should take less than 10 minutes.  Poor fuel mileage( you are tracking, this is an OLD car) tells you either bad injectors(most likely), or compression/blow by or oxygen sensor.  Oxygen sensor on exhaust manifold can be a bitch and a half to take out, but a simple torch takes care of that generally speaking. 

Yes, old used cars are near worthless... that is THE POINT.  Some tweedle dee has determined it is dead even though they drive just fine because hoity toity people refuse to WORK on their own cars fixing them and instead demand to be pampered by having other people do the work and therefore are "worth less than the hoity toity labor bill to fix"... or you get OFF your hoity toity ass and pay yourself to fix said car.  It helps not sitting on your ass your entire life having other people change your diapers.

Oh yea, and if you are smart?  Get an old car which does not have to pass emissions idiocy.  Here where I live, it is any car older than 15 years old.  All modern cars easily pass 15 years without issue anyways so "inspection" or "emissions" is nothing but a government scam anyways. 

Time = money

I agree that driving a clunker is cheaper than driving a Tesla, but the Tesla is nicer.  Some people like nice things.

Edited March 6, 2022 by TailingsPond

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

5 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

No, Jay, what matters is percentage of vehicles sold, which is still under 1% for the EV segment.

What matters is percentage of new vehicles sold because new vehicles are additions to the fleet. Used car sales just shuffle them around. There is a reason that new car sales are tracked by industry economists in great detail every month but they rarely ever mention the used car market. You never took an economics course did you?

Edited March 7, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

6 hours ago, kshithij Sharma said:

https://insideevs.com/news/565442/uk-plugin-car-sales-january2022/

UK's PEV sales is 12.5% in January 2022. Rest is PHEV sales which can't be considered as EV. Moreover, in 2021 the PEV sales was 11.6% for the entire year and is a more reliable figure as it is annualised, thereby leaving seasonality out of it.

Good luck buying Venezuelan oil stocks at the same price as normal crude oil saying repeatedly that Venezuelan oil is not tar sands.

You clearly aren't paying attention because I almost always post YoY growth rate which also takes seasonality out of the picture.

PHEV is a sideshow but they are still PEVs. It's right there in the name.

Look at that growth rate. BEV market share was up a whopping 157% from Feb. 2021 to Feb. 2022.

 

Edited March 7, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Sales of new light-duty plug-in electric vehicles, including all-electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), nearly doubled from 308,000 in 2020 to 608,000 in 2021.

EV sales accounted for 73% of all plug-in electric vehicle sales in 2021. EV sales grew by 85% from 2020 to 2021, while sales of PHEVs more than doubled, with an increase of 138% over the previous year.

The rapid growth in plug-in electric vehicle sales from 2020 to 2021 is remarkable in the context of overall light-duty vehicle sales, which increased by only 3% during the same period.

https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/04/light-duty-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sales-in-the-united-states-nearly-doubled-from-2020-to-2021/

Edited March 7, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[QuarterCenturyVet + 312]

2 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Sales of new light-duty plug-in electric vehicles, including all-electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), nearly doubled from 308,000 in 2020 to 608,000 in 2021.

EV sales accounted for 73% of all plug-in electric vehicle sales in 2021. EV sales grew by 85% from 2020 to 2021, while sales of PHEVs more than doubled, with an increase of 138% over the previous year.

The rapid growth in plug-in electric vehicle sales from 2020 to 2021 is remarkable in the context of overall light-duty vehicle sales, which increased by only 3% during the same period.

https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/04/light-duty-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sales-in-the-united-states-nearly-doubled-from-2020-to-2021/

A 3% increase, which accounts for how many vehicles in total, Jay? 

[QuarterCenturyVet + 312]

8 hours ago, TailingsPond said:

Time = money

I agree that driving a clunker is cheaper than driving a Tesla, but the Tesla is nicer.  Some people like nice things.

You don't though. Which is why you choose to live in a cramped apartment in Edmonton. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

17 minutes ago, QuarterCenturyVet said:

A 3% increase, which accounts for how many vehicles in total, Jay? 

450K. PEV sales growth accounted for 2/3 of the growth in light duty vehicles last year.

 

Edited March 7, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[QuarterCenturyVet + 312]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

450K. PEV sales growth accounted for 2/3 of the growth in light duty vehicles last year.

 

Not according to this. But, then again, that's not "cleantechnica" garbage. 

https://blog.nada.org/2022/01/06/nada-market-beat-2021-new-light-vehicle-sales-up-3-1-over-2020/

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

2 hours ago, QuarterCenturyVet said:

Not according to this. But, then again, that's not "cleantechnica" garbage. 

https://blog.nada.org/2022/01/06/nada-market-beat-2021-new-light-vehicle-sales-up-3-1-over-2020/

The data I posted is originally from the US Gov't: 

Sales of new light-duty plug-in electric vehicles, including all-electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), nearly doubled from 308,000 in 2020 to 608,000 in 2021. EV sales accounted for 73% of all plug-in electric vehicle sales in 2021. EV sales grew by 85% from 2020 to 2021, while sales of PHEVs more than doubled, with an increase of 138% over the previous year. The rapid growth in plug-in electric vehicle sales from 2020 to 2021 is remarkable in the context of overall light-duty vehicle sales, which increased by only 3% during the same period.

Image

https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/articles/new-plug-electric-vehicle-sales-united-states-nearly-doubled-2020-2021

 

The article you posted says:

"Alternative-fuel powertrains increased their market penetration as well, with hybrids and plug-in hybrids representing 6.5% of all new vehicles sold—an increase of 2.9 percentage points from 2020. Battery electric vehicles’ market share rose to 2.9% of all new-vehicle sales, up from 1.6% in 2020."

According to your article BEV accounted for 1.3 of those 3 percentage points and though it does not break out PHEV it was about .7 which adds up to 2/3 of the light duty vehicle growth.

From your article: "New light-vehicle sales totaled 14.93 million units in 2021, up 3.1% from 2020’s 14.47 million."

14.93M - 14.47M = 460K growth in new vehicle units.

The government says 300K are BEV + PHEV.

300/460= 65% or just shy of 2/3 of new car growth in 2021.

 

 

Edited March 7, 2022 by Jay McKinsey