GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[kshithij Sharma + 78]

15 hours ago, nsdp said:

Eric not quite right.  Saudi Arabia has not produced a barrel from the entire Dammam Field since 1983 when Saudi produced 12 million b/d.  How long it would take to return to that level  depends on the condition of the wells and infrastructure.   Production at Dammam in 1983 averaged 1,000 b/d per well 1.1million b/d. Dammam #7 was the original discovery  in 1938.  Shut in when oil dropped to $10.70 in the 80's and Ghawar started producting. There are a couple of other fields  that are cut back due to price differentials. Total 350-400, 000 immediately million plus in 60 days and 1.5 million by September. .  Mr. Trump chose to withdraw from the Iran Uranium Enrichment deal and that takes 3 million b/d out plus 50 million barrels floating at Kharg Island preloaded on Iranian tankers. It was 70 million  when the agreement was originally signed. Also corners Mr Putin since CNOC owns 50% of several fields that are shut in.  Mr Trump also took out PDVSA  which was 2.5-3 million b/d before sanctions.  Sanctions on Ecuador over the Texaco oil spills takes another 300,000 b/d.  The Neutral  Zone dispute has about another 300,000 b/d that can be produced with 30 days.  Kurdish production at Mosul/Kirkut is down because the pipeline from Mosul to Haifa is closed due to sanctions  from the 1973 war and the Arab oil boycott leaving only Mosul to Tripoli  US sanctions.  Pipeline is 350,000 b/d and goes across Jordan  to Haifa.

Though it is true that OPEC has significant spare capacity, even over 3MBPS, some of your points are not fully accurate:

- Venezuelan oil is mostly oil sands/tar sands which is not true oil and hence is not capable of substituting oil from other sources. It needs to be blended with distillate to be processed in refineries which makes it very difficult to use. Moreover, the reduced venezuelan oil has been compensated by increased Canadian oil which is also mostly tar sands (but lower quality than Venezuelan oil). 

- Iranian oil exports were about 2 MBPD and another 0.5MBPD condensate before sanctions. Currently, it again exports over 1MBPD oil by various means avoiding sanctions. The spare capacity in Iran is 1.3MBPD additional oil as per Iranian officials, not 3MBPD

- Ecuador sanctions are not really meaningful. Ecuador is running out of oil reserves and hence its production is slowing down. Nothing can be done about it

- The pipeline to Jordan and Haifa is again not meaningful as the oil production has already been diverted to the ports. The pipeline is no longer functional and has been so for decades. Even if pipeline is activated, the oil production won't change as oil production has only been diverted, not curtailed.

Also, you have missed the spare capacity of USA. USA has 1.2MBPD spare capacity which is being underutilised due to politics, mainly concerns over limited reserves and depletion. So, if countries like KSA (2), UAE (0.6), Kuwait(0.4), Libya(0.3), Iraq(0.3), Iran(1.3) and USA(1.2) increase production to maximum, it is possible to get 6MBPD extra oil. However, of these, KSA, UAE, Kuwait won't increase production as they are not on the same page as USA. Libya won't so anything as Russia-US proxy war is taking place. Iraq has minimal capacity and intends to keep it for replacing outages. So, realistically, we can have only USA and Iran to increase production.

[notsonice + 1,255]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The UK’s offshore wind pipeline reaches 86 GW, sees a 60% increase in 12 months

The pipeline, which “includes projects that are fully operational, under construction, consented, in the planning system, or being developed for submission into planning,” has seen a 60% increase over the past 12 months, and it’s more than eight times the UK’s current operational capacity.

The surge in the last 12 months was mainly the result of huge leasing round announcements by The Crown Estate (8 GW) and Crown Estate Scotland (25 GW).

Globally, the total offshore wind pipeline has reached 517 GW. So, where does the UK stand in comparison to other countries’ offshore wind pipelines?

Its total pipeline is bigger than China’s, which is at 74.7 GW, as per the below chart, but China now has more fully operational capacity – 24 GW – than the UK, which has 10.5 GW.

Source: RenewableUK

The US’s pipeline comes in third at nearly 48 GW, which is a significant number, seeing how it currently has almost no built offshore wind capacity.

my my ....reading some of the other posters here....one would think that Wind output  now and in the future is  a drop in the bucket....Jay you sure do ruin a few coal lovers parade ( and nat gas) UK soon to be a major electricity exporter to main land Europe?????

Edited March 22, 2022 by notsonice

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

7 minutes ago, notsonice said:

my my ....reading some of the other posters here....one would think that Wind output  now and in the future is  a drop in the bucket....Jay you sure do ruin a few coal lovers parade ( and nat gas) UK soon to be a major electricity exporter to main land Europe?????

Yep, they are going to be the offshore powerhouse of Europe, at least as long as they can keep Scotland. Ireland is getting going and Norway isn't even on the list, will need another generation of floating offshore development I suspect.

Edited March 22, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[notsonice + 1,255]

12 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Yep, they are going to be the offshore powerhouse of Europe, at least as long as they can keep Scotland. Ireland is getting going and Norway isn't even on the list, will need another generation of floating offshore development I suspect.

looks like Sweden is eyeing up exporting Electricity as they are 100 percent Hydro/Nuclear/Wind today and they are jumping on the Offshore wind bandwagon......

EV's power demands will easily be met by Wind with Hydro being the battery......Big oil in Europe will soon be little oil.

 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

LFP to dominate 3TWh global lithium-ion battery market by 2030

 

Image: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables.

Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) will be the dominant battery chemistry over nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) by 2028, in a global market of demand exceeding 3,000GWh by 2030.

That’s according to new analysis into the lithium-ion battery manufacturing industry published by Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables.

The top two manufacturers planning to add the most production capacity during this decade were China’s CATL and South Korea’s LG.

CATL alone intends to have 800GWh of annual production capacity online by 2030.

The top 15 producers in 2021 alone got 200GWh of new production lines running and by the end of last year cumulative manufacturing capacity reached 600GWh.

China’s manufacturers across the board have announced plans to build more than 3,000GWh of capacity to date. The Asia-Pacific region will therefore continue to lead the market, which globally has announced 5,500GWh of manufacturing capacity to come online by 2030 at 300 facilities, but Europe and the US will have begun to eat into its share by then. 

While 90% of the world’s battery manufacturing was in the Asia-Pacific region, and most of that in China, by 2030 that share will have fallen to 69%. Europe will have a 20% share at that stage, Wood Mackenzie forecast. 

That forecasting is broadly in line with recent figures from another analysis group, Clean Energy Associates, which said China — as opposed to Wood Mac’s reporting of Asia-Pacific region percentage — had a share of about 75% of global battery cell production capacity in 2020, set to fall to 66% by 2030.

Another group, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, calculated that Europe is on track for 27 gigafactories by 18 different producers by 2030, accounting for 789.2GWh of capacity by then, a 14% share of the global total market.

‘Skyrocketing demand’

Like Wood Mackenzie, Clean Energy Associates (CEA) noted the competitive dynamic heating up between LFP and NMC batteries. Safety advantages, long lifecycle and lower costs have led to EV makers starting to accept the trade-off of lower energy density in adopting LFP batteries, both firms have noted.

LFP has already been accepted by the stationary battery energy storage system (BESS) sector, where energy density tends to be a less decisive factor.

CEA said LFP outsold NMC among batteries sold by Chinese manufacturers, with its market share growing through the year: of 100GWh of lithium batteries used for EVs and ESS, 44% were NMC and the majority of the remainder LFP. 

Wood Mackenzie said similarly that LFP’s advantages are making it an attractive option in both power and energy applications, over the more mature market technology of NMC. 

Supply chain issues which have beset the battery market are not likely to ease during 2022, the group noted, particularly with EV demand rising in reaction to the rising price of oil and the ongoing raw materials commodity crunch. Nonetheless, many more new plant announcements are expected this year, Wood Mackenzie analysts said. 

Nearly 80% of lithium-ion battery demand is coming from the EV market, Wood Mackenzie consultant Jiayue Zheng said, adding that zero-emissions transport policies rolled out in response to rising fuel costs is “causing demand for lithium-ion batteries to skyrocket”.

The market already encountered shortages last year, Zheng said, driven by a combination of rising demand and raw material prices.  

For stationary energy storage, predicted by Clean Energy Associates to account for about 13% of the total lithium battery market’s demand by 2030, it will be a case of figuring out strategies to vie for battery supply with EVs or diversify their technologies to get around the problem. 

One example could be sodium-ion. CATL, one of the first to produce LFP batteries at scale and a major supplier to the BESS industry, has backed sodium-ion technology as a possible alternative and committed to commercialising it.   

Yesterday, Sweden-based sodium-ion battery tech company Altris said that investors in a EU9.6 million (US$10.6 million) Series A funding round had included European battery manufacturing startup Northvolt. Major India-based clean energy group Reliance New Energy has also invested in sodium-ion, buying Faradion, a UK sodium-ion battery company. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

GE produces world's largest recyclable wind turbine blade

Through its massive wind turbines and innovative offshore designs, GE continues sharpening its toolkit in a bid to built the future of sustainable energy, and a newly unveiled turbine blade shows how that can extend to the materials used. A consortium led by the company has manufactured the world's largest thermoplastic blade, designed to serve as full-scale example of a fully recyclable wind turbine blade.

Wind energy has become an important pillar in our fossil fuel-free future, but that doesn't mean it comes without environmental concerns of its own. The thermoset composites making up today's turbine blades cannot be recycled, and one University of Cambridge study suggests that there will be 43 million tonnes of blade waste around the world by 2050. The Zero Waste Blade Research (ZEBRA) Project is working on more sustainable materials in the form of thermoplastic composites.

 

The 62-meter (203-ft) prototype blade is made with Elium resin from materials company Arkema, which is a glass-fiber reinforced thermoplastic. Not only is the material 100 percent recyclable, it is said to deliver a similar level of performance to thermoset resins that are favored for their lightweight and durability.

Through a chemical recycling method, the material can be depolymerized and turned into a new virgin resin for re-use, acting as a proof-of-concept for a circular economy loop for the wind energy sector. Before that happens, in the coming weeks LM Wind Power will start full-scale structural testing to verify the blade's performance. It will then verify these advanced recycling methods later in the year, while also working on ways of recycling production waste.

“With this project we are addressing two crucial industry challenges," said John Korsgaard, Senior Director, Engineering Excellence, LM Wind Power. "On one hand, we are progressing on our Zero Waste Blades vision by preventing and recycling manufacturing waste. On the other, we are taking blade recyclability to a new level: the end-of-life thermoplastic composite blade material has high value in itself and can be readily utilized in other industries as material compounds but can also be depolymerized and the resin reused in the production of new blades."

Source: GE

Edited March 23, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[nsdp + 449]

9 hours ago, kshithij Sharma said:

Though it is true that OPEC has significant spare capacity, even over 3MBPS, some of your points are not fully accurate:

- Venezuelan oil is mostly oil sands/tar sands which is not true oil and hence is not capable of substituting oil from other sources. It needs to be blended with distillate to be processed in refineries which makes it very difficult to use. Moreover, the reduced venezuelan oil has been compensated by increased Canadian oil which is also mostly tar sands (but lower quality than Venezuelan oil). 

- Iranian oil exports were about 2 MBPD and another 0.5MBPD condensate before sanctions. Currently, it again exports over 1MBPD oil by various means avoiding sanctions. The spare capacity in Iran is 1.3MBPD additional oil as per Iranian officials, not 3MBPD

- Ecuador sanctions are not really meaningful. Ecuador is running out of oil reserves and hence its production is slowing down. Nothing can be done about it

- The pipeline to Jordan and Haifa is again not meaningful as the oil production has already been diverted to the ports. The pipeline is no longer functional and has been so for decades. Even if pipeline is activated, the oil production won't change as oil production has only been diverted, not curtailed.

Also, you have missed the spare capacity of USA. USA has 1.2MBPD spare capacity which is being underutilised due to politics, mainly concerns over limited reserves and depletion. So, if countries like KSA (2), UAE (0.6), Kuwait(0.4), Libya(0.3), Iraq(0.3), Iran(1.3) and USA(1.2) increase production to maximum, it is possible to get 6MBPD extra oil. However, of these, KSA, UAE, Kuwait won't increase production as they are not on the same page as USA. Libya won't so anything as Russia-US proxy war is taking place. Iraq has minimal capacity and intends to keep it for replacing outages. So, realistically, we can have only USA and Iran to increase production.

You do not understand the design of US gulf coast refineries which are  26% of all US refineries.  Most refineries in Texas are designed and built in the late1990s to refine Orinoco crude from Venezuela as principal feedstock.  Uptil the Trump administration Orinoco was the most common crude refined in Texas. I can only think of three refineries in the Texas gulf coast  that could not and did not run Orinoco. ARAMCO Port Neches runs 100% Saudi Heavy, Shell/PEMEX in Deer Park  runs Maya from Mexico, and Valero Three Rivers which runs light crude  from the Eagle Ford. 

Edited March 23, 2022 by nsdp
spelling

[nsdp + 449]

5 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

LFP to dominate 3TWh global lithium-ion battery market by 2030

 

Image: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables.

Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) will be the dominant battery chemistry over nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) by 2028, in a global market of demand exceeding 3,000GWh by 2030.

That’s according to new analysis into the lithium-ion battery manufacturing industry published by Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables.

The top two manufacturers planning to add the most production capacity during this decade were China’s CATL and South Korea’s LG.

CATL alone intends to have 800GWh of annual production capacity online by 2030.

The top 15 producers in 2021 alone got 200GWh of new production lines running and by the end of last year cumulative manufacturing capacity reached 600GWh.

China’s manufacturers across the board have announced plans to build more than 3,000GWh of capacity to date. The Asia-Pacific region will therefore continue to lead the market, which globally has announced 5,500GWh of manufacturing capacity to come online by 2030 at 300 facilities, but Europe and the US will have begun to eat into its share by then. 

While 90% of the world’s battery manufacturing was in the Asia-Pacific region, and most of that in China, by 2030 that share will have fallen to 69%. Europe will have a 20% share at that stage, Wood Mackenzie forecast. 

That forecasting is broadly in line with recent figures from another analysis group, Clean Energy Associates, which said China — as opposed to Wood Mac’s reporting of Asia-Pacific region percentage — had a share of about 75% of global battery cell production capacity in 2020, set to fall to 66% by 2030.

Another group, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, calculated that Europe is on track for 27 gigafactories by 18 different producers by 2030, accounting for 789.2GWh of capacity by then, a 14% share of the global total market.

‘Skyrocketing demand’

Like Wood Mackenzie, Clean Energy Associates (CEA) noted the competitive dynamic heating up between LFP and NMC batteries. Safety advantages, long lifecycle and lower costs have led to EV makers starting to accept the trade-off of lower energy density in adopting LFP batteries, both firms have noted.

LFP has already been accepted by the stationary battery energy storage system (BESS) sector, where energy density tends to be a less decisive factor.

CEA said LFP outsold NMC among batteries sold by Chinese manufacturers, with its market share growing through the year: of 100GWh of lithium batteries used for EVs and ESS, 44% were NMC and the majority of the remainder LFP. 

Wood Mackenzie said similarly that LFP’s advantages are making it an attractive option in both power and energy applications, over the more mature market technology of NMC. 

Supply chain issues which have beset the battery market are not likely to ease during 2022, the group noted, particularly with EV demand rising in reaction to the rising price of oil and the ongoing raw materials commodity crunch. Nonetheless, many more new plant announcements are expected this year, Wood Mackenzie analysts said. 

Nearly 80% of lithium-ion battery demand is coming from the EV market, Wood Mackenzie consultant Jiayue Zheng said, adding that zero-emissions transport policies rolled out in response to rising fuel costs is “causing demand for lithium-ion batteries to skyrocket”.

The market already encountered shortages last year, Zheng said, driven by a combination of rising demand and raw material prices.  

For stationary energy storage, predicted by Clean Energy Associates to account for about 13% of the total lithium battery market’s demand by 2030, it will be a case of figuring out strategies to vie for battery supply with EVs or diversify their technologies to get around the problem. 

One example could be sodium-ion. CATL, one of the first to produce LFP batteries at scale and a major supplier to the BESS industry, has backed sodium-ion technology as a possible alternative and committed to commercialising it.   

Yesterday, Sweden-based sodium-ion battery tech company Altris said that investors in a EU9.6 million (US$10.6 million) Series A funding round had included European battery manufacturing startup Northvolt. Major India-based clean energy group Reliance New Energy has also invested in sodium-ion, buying Faradion, a UK sodium-ion battery company. 

Jay, before you get to excited by batteries, the NERC standard for grid support and reliability as opposed to local use is that  the battery must deliver full power for 96 hours continuous at or below 10C and above 105 C.   This is called the N-1 standard which represents the loss of the largest generation complex on the grid in the last 10 years.  They must also provide dynamic reactive power supply.  That is a DC motor with an Alternator to provide synchronous dynamic power to the  three phase grid. No solid state SVR's. https://www.nerc.com/pa/Stand/Reliability%20Standards%20Complete%20Set/RSCompleteSet.pdf  this gives you a glimpse of the problems that batteries (solar and wind as well) using solid state inverters cause. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/73476.pdf  As you increase solid state units to convert DC to AC the grid becomes more unstable.

the numbers you see are a battery salesman's wet dream. Hydrogen and molten salts are the best bets or GWH/TWH sale storage. Batteries will only reach 1/1,000,000 of the needed scale for long term interruptions.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

1 minute ago, nsdp said:

Jay, before you get to excited by batteries, the NERC standard for grid support and reliability as opposed to local use is that  the battery must deliver full power for 96 hours continuous at or below 10C and above 105 C.   This is called the N-1 standard which represents the loss of the largest generation complex on the grid in the last 10 years.  They must also provide dynamic reactive power supply.  That is a DC motor with an Alternator to provide synchronous dynamic power to the  three phase grid. No solid state SVR's. https://www.nerc.com/pa/Stand/Reliability Standards Complete Set/RSCompleteSet.pdf this gives you a glimpse of the problems that batteries (solar and wind as well) using solid state inverters cause. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/73476.pdf As you increase solid state units to convert DC to AC the grid becomes more unstable.

the numbers you see are a battery salesman's wet dream. Hydrogen and molten salts are the best bets or GWH/TWH sale storage. Batteries will only reach 1/1,000,000 of the needed scale for long term interruptions.

Sorry, but even if your out of date tech analysis were true it is simply a non issue to spin up a synchronous generator with battery power, we have plenty of them sitting all over the grid.

[nsdp + 449]

10 hours ago, kshithij Sharma said:

Though it is true that OPEC has significant spare capacity, even over 3MBPS, some of your points are not fully accurate:

- Venezuelan oil is mostly oil sands/tar sands which is not true oil and hence is not capable of substituting oil from other sources. It needs to be blended with distillate to be processed in refineries which makes it very difficult to use. Moreover, the reduced venezuelan oil has been compensated by increased Canadian oil which is also mostly tar sands (but lower quality than Venezuelan oil). 

- Iranian oil exports were about 2 MBPD and another 0.5MBPD condensate before sanctions. Currently, it again exports over 1MBPD oil by various means avoiding sanctions. The spare capacity in Iran is 1.3MBPD additional oil as per Iranian officials, not 3MBPD

- Ecuador sanctions are not really meaningful. Ecuador is running out of oil reserves and hence its production is slowing down. Nothing can be done about it

- The pipeline to Jordan and Haifa is again not meaningful as the oil production has already been diverted to the ports. The pipeline is no longer functional and has been so for decades. Even if pipeline is activated, the oil production won't change as oil production has only been diverted, not curtailed.

Also, you have missed the spare capacity of USA. USA has 1.2MBPD spare capacity which is being underutilised due to politics, mainly concerns over limited reserves and depletion. So, if countries like KSA (2), UAE (0.6), Kuwait(0.4), Libya(0.3), Iraq(0.3), Iran(1.3) and USA(1.2) increase production to maximum, it is possible to get 6MBPD extra oil. However, of these, KSA, UAE, Kuwait won't increase production as they are not on the same page as USA. Libya won't so anything as Russia-US proxy war is taking place. Iraq has minimal capacity and intends to keep it for replacing outages. So, realistically, we can have only USA and Iran to increase production.

You forget Exxon Guyana will increase from 120,0000b/d about 0.6  mpd in Q3. Increased production from Liza Destiny FPSO and delivery and start up of the Liza Unity FPSO.  Add 1 FPSO in 2023 and one in 2024.   You also forgot Angolan expansion and Apache/Total in Suriname this year.

[nsdp + 449]

23 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Sorry, but even if your out of date tech analysis were true it is simply a non issue to spin up a synchronous generator with battery power, we have plenty of them sitting all over the grid.

Jay  are you certified by NERC to do a a grid study? If not don't make a fool of your self and read the NREL PDF.  and this by Siemens https://www.siemens-energy.com/global/en/offerings/power-transmission/portfolio/flexible-ac-transmission-systems/synchronous-condenser.html and this from IEEEhttps://spectrum.ieee.org/zombie-coal-plants-reanimated-to-stabilize-the-grid

I don't know of a single synchronous generator that can be powered by a DC battery any where in the world without a DC pony motor .   Do tell where do these exist.

Edited March 23, 2022 by nsdp
spelling

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

23 minutes ago, nsdp said:

Jay  are you certified by NERC to do a a grid study? If not don't make a fool of your self and read the NREL PDF.  and this by Siemens https://www.siemens-energy.com/global/en/offerings/power-transmission/portfolio/flexible-ac-transmission-systems/synchronous-condenser.html and this from IEEEhttps://spectrum.ieee.org/zombie-coal-plants-reanimated-to-stabilize-the-grid

I don't know of a single synchronous generator that can be powered by a DC battery any where in the world without a DC pony motor .   Do tell where do these exist.

The DC power is converted to AC as it is in a Tesla and used to spin the wheels. There is no difference whatsoever in powering a flywheel with a battery.

[nsdp + 449]

3 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The DC power is converted to AC as it is in a Tesla and used to spin the wheels. There is no difference whatsoever in powering a flywheel with a battery.

Not with a synchronous grid system.  Teslas are asynchonous.  Stick to economics you are bette rthan any one else here.  But you stink as an electrical engineer.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

33 minutes ago, nsdp said:

Not with a synchronous grid system.  Teslas are asynchonous.  Stick to economics you are bette rthan any one else here.  But you stink as an electrical engineer.

An asynchronous generator is used to spin a flywheel that then powers a synchronous generator. But the even better answer is that batteries are just programmed to skip that step. Information is about to be recognized as the fifth form of matter.

Edited March 23, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

On 3/21/2022 at 11:03 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

2. The nickel price spike was a short squeeze and is nearly back to normal. In reality prices are increasing slowly.

This is true largely because of the below article which is very short term and which many havent got a clue about!

https://finshots.in/archive/why-did-nickel-prices-go-crazy/

 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

18 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Yep, they are going to be the offshore powerhouse of Europe, at least as long as they can keep Scotland. Ireland is getting going and Norway isn't even on the list, will need another generation of floating offshore development I suspect.

Jay the vast majority of wind farms are actually off the coast of England (Yorkshire) in the North Sea.

https://doggerbank.com/

Many of these have been built with GE turbines and Siemens Gamesa making the blades (350 ft long each). 

https://www.taylorhopkinson.com/worlds-largest-wind-turbine-ge-haliade-x/

I agree though that Scotland and Ireland are also coming to the party but the Scottish ones may well be floating like the Equinor Hywind project.

https://www.equinor.com/en/magazine/wind-power-is-the-future.html

Edited March 23, 2022 by Rob Plant

[TailingsPond + 874]

4 hours ago, nsdp said:

Not with a synchronous grid system.  Teslas are asynchonous.  Stick to economics you are bette rthan any one else here.  But you stink as an electrical engineer.

DC to AC conversion is not particularly difficult.  Don't make a minor technical problem out to be insurmountable. There are numerous ways around it and you know it. 

 

 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

Coal plant owners seek to shut 3.2 GW in PJM in face of economic, regulatory and market pressures

Published March 22, 2022

 

 

Stephanie Keith via Getty Images

Dive Brief:

• Power plant owners started the process of potentially retiring 3,228 MW of coal-fired generation in the PJM Interconnection's footprint this month, according to the grid operator's generator deactivation list. Another 1,024 MW of coal shut down last year.

• A majority of that capacity belongs to Energy Harbor, which last week said it plans to shutter or sell its 1,278-MW coal-fired Pleasants units in West Virginia as well as its 1,491-MW coal-fired Sammis units, and 13-MW Sammis diesel unit, which are in Ohio, by mid-2023.

• Based on public information, PJM's coal-fired capacity is expected to fall from about 50,000 MW to 25,000 MW by 2030 and to about 22,000 MW by 2036, according to analysts with ESAI Power. The consulting firm deems another 12,000 MW to be at risk of retiring by 2040, which would bring coal-fired generation in PJM to 10,000 MW.

Dive Insight:

PJM runs the grid and wholesale power markets in 13 Mid-Atlantic and Midwestern states and the District of Columbia. Coal-fired power plants in PJM are retiring, as they are in other parts of the U.S., in the face of less expensive renewable energy, tougher environmental rules and higher operating costs, according to ESAI Power and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a nonprofit that supports moving away from fossil fuels.

Announced coal capacity retirements in PJM

Permission granted by ESAI Power

 

Looking at the explanations for the planned retirements, Julia Criscuolo, ESAI Power manager of renewables and emissions, said about a third are driven by environmental regulations, a quarter by unfavorable economics and roughly 20% by "end of life" plant issues.

Some of the latest pressure on coal-fired generation is coming from the Environmental Protection Agency's proposed coal ash and water discharge rules, Criscuolo said. The agency in January proposed denying requests from three Midwest coal-fired power plants to continue dumping coal ash in unlined surface impoundments, a move that could lead to the plants' early retirements. More proposed decisions on individual power plants are expected in the coming months.

"Looking at history, I think these [EPA] rules have driven retirements in the past," Criscuolo said, pointing to the agency's mercury and air toxics standards, which contributed to a wave of coal plant retirements starting around 2015.

The pressure on coal-fired generation is expected to grow. The EPA earlier this month proposed a federal plan for limiting nitrogen oxides emissions, an ozone precursor, from power plants and industrial facilities that drifts into downwind states. The agency estimated its proposal could lead to the shutdown of 18,000 MW of coal and 4,000 MW of oil- and gas-fired generation across the U.S.

In addition to approving the Energy Harbor deactivation requests, PJM approved requests filed this month to shutter two coal-fired plants in New Jersey owned by private equity firms. The 285-MW Chambers plant is owned by affiliates of Starwood Energy Group Global, which have a 60% ownership share, and by Atlantic Power. Starwood affiliates also own the 225-MW Logan plant. The plants are set to retire May 31.

Power from the plants, which is under contract to Atlantic City Electric Co., a subsidiary of Exelon, is more expensive than wholesale electricity, and ACE has been trying to exit the contracts for "many years," according to a filing at the New Jersey Bureau of Public Utilities.

The plans by the private equity firms to retire the plants in New Jersey are a signal that they aren't competitive, according to Seth Feaster, IEEFA energy data analyst. Energy Harbor's coal plants were also likely uneconomic, he said.

Even so, Energy Harbor's decision to exit coal and brand itself as a provider of emissions-free electricity is part of a trend, Feaster said. 

"It's pressure from consumers and businesses as much as it is from state regulators," Feaster said, noting The AES Corp. in February said it planned to sell or retire its 7,100 MW of coal-fired generation fleet by 2025.

Marginal power plants in PJM rely heavily on payments from the grid operator's capacity auctions, according to Feaster. When coal-fired power plants fail to clear the auction, they tend to retire, he said, citing NRG Energy's decision last year to retire three coal-fired power plants.

Coal-fired generation in Pennsylvania could face additional cost pressure, according to Feaster, if the state joins the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, a cap-and-trade program for power plants.

Also, New Jersey is preparing to add 7,500 MW of offshore wind by 2035, which will likely displace marginal power plants, Feaster said.

The pressure on coal generation is "coming from all directions," Feaster said. "All of these things are pushing coal plants to the brink, as well as the build-out of renewables. Solar's unbelievably cheap, and it's pretty tough for coal plants, no matter where you are in the country at this point, to compete against those cheaper kinds of fuel."

Looking ahead, proposed solar energy projects are 58% of PJM's interconnection queue, with energy storage accounting for the second-largest slice of the resources aiming to connect to the grid, according to a report released early this month by the grid operator.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

AEP sets course for rapid increase in renewables after completing company's largest wind farm

Published March 22, 2022

 

Permission granted by American Electric Power

Dive Brief:

• American Electric Power's Traverse Wind Energy Center, the company's largest wind farm at 998 MW, has begun operations, according to an announcement from the company.

• The project, in Blaine and Custer counties in Oklahoma, is the final addition to the three-part North Central Energy Facilities, which will generate a combined 1,484 MW of clean energy at a total cost of $2 billion.

• With the North Central project now complete, AEP is "moving pretty aggressively" to acquire another 14.5 GW of renewable energy by 2030, according to Antonio Smyth, senior vice president of grid solutions for AEP.

 

Dive Insight:

AEP's newest Traverse Wind Energy Center, the company's largest wind farm to date, is only the beginning of the company's renewable energy ambitions, according to Smyth.

AEP, with developer Invenergy, was able to complete the 356-turbine Traverse project in about a year and a half, pandemic notwithstanding, Smyth said. Together with two other North Central Energy Facilities, the 199-MW Sundance and 287-MW Maverick wind projects, Traverse is expected to save customers in Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana $3 billion over 30 years.

But the now-complete North Central Energy initiative was merely the first step toward AEP's goal of deploying 16 GW of new wind and solar energy by 2030, which will be needed to fill gaps left by upcoming retirements of older generating units, Smyth said. AEP has recently filed for approval of additional projects through its Southwestern Electric Power Company and Appalachian Power affiliates, and is actively on the market with requests for proposals in Oklahoma and Indiana, he said.

"We're in the market pretty aggressively right now with some large scale RFPs, and we will continue to do that," Smyth said. "We're going to continue to file integrated resource plans and RFPs in an effort to hit that goal in the next decade. ... It's going to take a big effort to achieve that goal, but it's achievable and we're going after it."

While the Traverse project demonstrates the technical potential for gigawatt-scale wind and solar projects, it's not likely that projects of this size will become the norm, Smyth said. But given the growth of renewables, he said, it's possible that Traverse's 998 MW record could one day fall to a future development.

"The technology is there to develop to scale, so I don't think that's a limiting step, but from a development perspective, putting continuous parcels of land together at this scale can be a challenge," Smyth said. "But as the demand in the market picks up, we may see larger projects available."

And like other utilities, AEP plans to add dramatically to that demand in years to come — the company announced in February 2021 that it aims to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 after cutting emissions 80% by 2030.

"In order to achieve our goal, we're going to have to bring online large volumes of renewables," Smyth said, "but it remains to be seen whether that occurs with a basket of smaller projects, or some larger projects sprinkled in there to take care of the need."

[kshithij Sharma + 78]

22 hours ago, nsdp said:

You do not understand the design of US gulf coast refineries which are  26% of all US refineries.  Most refineries in Texas are designed and built in the late1990s to refine Orinoco crude from Venezuela as principal feedstock.  Uptil the Trump administration Orinoco was the most common crude refined in Texas. I can only think of three refineries in the Texas gulf coast  that could not and did not run Orinoco. ARAMCO Port Neches runs 100% Saudi Heavy, Shell/PEMEX in Deer Park  runs Maya from Mexico, and Valero Three Rivers which runs light crude  from the Eagle Ford. 

The refineries may be designed to handle Venezuelan oil but it is not just about handling but also about requirements. Venezuelan oil is not true oil and has to be blended with distillates or ultra light crude to be able to get the right viscosity to refine. This means, the refining is limited by availability of ultra light crude oil. In addition, the Oil/Tar sands produce diesel, ship-oil and petcoke in large quantities rather than LPG, Petrol or other petrochemicals used in making drugs and plastics. This means excess imports of oil sands don't cater to market demand. The refineries are versatile and can be adjusted to handle Venezuelan grades but if there is no demand for more petcoke, shipoil etc, then it won't make much sense to import such a grade of oil.

21 hours ago, nsdp said:

You forget Exxon Guyana will increase from 120,0000b/d about 0.6  mpd in Q3. Increased production from Liza Destiny FPSO and delivery and start up of the Liza Unity FPSO.  Add 1 FPSO in 2023 and one in 2024.   You also forgot Angolan expansion and Apache/Total in Suriname this year.

Guyana is an offshore field and will take a couple years before reaching 0.6Mbpd due to difficulty in setting up infrastructure. Current potential increase is 0.1-0.2Mbpd in 2022 and that can't be called as "spare capacity" as it is not yet proven capacity. Angola oil production is already declining for the last 10 years and its oil reserves are declining quickly. Angolan expansion will only offset its production decline with very little surplus expected. Suriname is a very recent discovery and has not even been appraised for its potential. It is not coming online for at least till 2025.

[specinho + 467]

[notsonice + 1,255]

Just remember folks....in 2050 no more ICE vehicles.............

Will coal even be used in the US in 2050????? the chart says a little........but the reality will be closer to zero

Oil ????? less than 5 million barrels a day total consumed in the US??????

March 18, 2022

EIA projects that renewable generation will supply 44% of U.S. electricity by 2050

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022)
Note: Biofuels are both shown separately and are included in petroleum and other liquids.

---

In our Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022) Reference case, which reflects current laws and regulations, we project that the share of U.S. power generation from renewables will increase from 21% in 2021 to 44% in 2050. This increase in renewable energy mainly consists of new wind and solar power. The contribution of hydropower remains largely unchanged through 2050, and other renewable sources of power generation, such as geothermal and biomass, collectively remain less than 3% of total generation.

In the AEO2022 Reference case, we project that the contribution of total solar generation, including both utility-scale solar farms and small-scale rooftop end-use systems, will surpass wind generation by the early 2030s. Early growth in wind and solar is driven by federal tax credits set to expire or significantly decline by 2026, but declining costs for both technologies play a significant role in both near- and long-term growth.

Meanwhile, we project the total share of U.S. fossil fuel-fired power generation decreases from 60% to 44% in the AEO2022 Reference case as a result of the continued retirement of coal generators and slow growth in natural gas-fired generation. Although natural gas-fired generation increases in absolute terms, the share of natural gas in the total generation mix decreases slightly, from 37% in 2021 to 34% in 2050.

In our Reference case projections, the natural gas share remains consistent despite several projected retirements of coal and nuclear generating units, which cause the shares from those sources to drop by half. Generation from renewable sources increases to offset the declining coal and nuclear shares, largely because existing regulatory programs and market factors incentivize renewable sources.

Energy storage systems, such as stand-alone batteries or solar-battery hybrid systems, compete with natural gas-fired generators to provide electric power generation and back-up capacity for times when nondispatchable renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, are unavailable. Because energy storage shifts energy usage from one time to another and is not an original fuel source of energy, we do not included it in the generation graphic in this article. Based on planned projects reported to us, energy storage capacity is expected to increase in upcoming years.

Principal contributor: Vikram Linga

Edited March 24, 2022 by notsonice

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

US installed 1.6GW/4.7GWh of energy storage in Q4 2021 but supply chain challenges are ongoing, says WoodMac

ByCameron Murray

March 24, 2022

 

It was a recording break Q4 for energy storage installations in the US. Image: Kenueone.

A total of 1,613MW/4,727MWh of energy storage was installed in the US in the last quarter of 2021 according to Wood Mackenzie, which says annual residential storage installations will hit 2GW by 2026.

The power MW installed in Q4 was more than the first three quarters of the year combined which saw 1.5GW installed. Research group Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables said Q4 saw impressive grid-scale deployment figures in certain Southern States as well as the established frontrunners of California and Texas.

But Q4 should have been even more of an outlier with 2GW of grid-scale capacity expected to come online during the quarter pushed back to 2022 and 2023 in light of supply chain challenges. We could see as much as 1.7GW installed in the current quarter.

Overall, Wood Mackenzie said 3GW/9.2GWh of grid-scale storage came online out of a total 3.5GW/10.5GWh across all segments in the US in 2021. That is 140% year-on-year growth measured in GW and a tripling of deployments measured by GWh. But the 3.5GW is lower than the 4.2GW figure from BloombergNEF’s competing report released earlier this month, covered by Energy-storage.news.

Meanwhile, separate figures covering all clean energy recently released by American Clean Power Association, which also commissioned WoodMac’s recent report, said the utility-scale segment saw 2.6GW of deployment last year. WoodMac’s figures cover all market segments.

It says the residential storage segment had its strongest quarter to date with 123 MW installed in Q4 2021 which was driven by sales of solar-plus-storage systems, of which half was in California. Puerto Rico installed 14.3GW while Texas saw 10.5 MW of deployments in the residential segment.

The report adds that system price gains over the last few years have been nearly wiped out by higher costs for raw materials and transportation. Battery module pricing has spiked the most of all system components while BOS (balance of system) has remained flat.

For the coming five years, WoodMac expects similar growth this year and in 2023 to that seen in 2021, but expects three roughly flat years for deployments in 2024-2026. In total over 2021-2026, the research firm expects 63.4GW/202.5GWh of storage to have been deployed. And by the end of the period, annual deployments of residential storage will hit 2GW/5.4GWh.

It says that projects are still being built at record-setting pace despite costs and supply chain issues causing delays and that its methodology includes additional risk weighting to account for supply chain issues

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

31 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

US installed 1.6GW/4.7GWh of energy storage in Q4 2021 but supply chain challenges are ongoing, says WoodMac

ByCameron Murray

March 24, 2022

 

It was a recording break Q4 for energy storage installations in the US. Image: Kenueone.

A total of 1,613MW/4,727MWh of energy storage was installed in the US in the last quarter of 2021 according to Wood Mackenzie, which says annual residential storage installations will hit 2GW by 2026.

The power MW installed in Q4 was more than the first three quarters of the year combined which saw 1.5GW installed. Research group Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables said Q4 saw impressive grid-scale deployment figures in certain Southern States as well as the established frontrunners of California and Texas.

But Q4 should have been even more of an outlier with 2GW of grid-scale capacity expected to come online during the quarter pushed back to 2022 and 2023 in light of supply chain challenges. We could see as much as 1.7GW installed in the current quarter.

Overall, Wood Mackenzie said 3GW/9.2GWh of grid-scale storage came online out of a total 3.5GW/10.5GWh across all segments in the US in 2021. That is 140% year-on-year growth measured in GW and a tripling of deployments measured by GWh. But the 3.5GW is lower than the 4.2GW figure from BloombergNEF’s competing report released earlier this month, covered by Energy-storage.news.

Meanwhile, separate figures covering all clean energy recently released by American Clean Power Association, which also commissioned WoodMac’s recent report, said the utility-scale segment saw 2.6GW of deployment last year. WoodMac’s figures cover all market segments.

It says the residential storage segment had its strongest quarter to date with 123 MW installed in Q4 2021 which was driven by sales of solar-plus-storage systems, of which half was in California. Puerto Rico installed 14.3GW while Texas saw 10.5 MW of deployments in the residential segment.

The report adds that system price gains over the last few years have been nearly wiped out by higher costs for raw materials and transportation. Battery module pricing has spiked the most of all system components while BOS (balance of system) has remained flat.

For the coming five years, WoodMac expects similar growth this year and in 2023 to that seen in 2021, but expects three roughly flat years for deployments in 2024-2026. In total over 2021-2026, the research firm expects 63.4GW/202.5GWh of storage to have been deployed. And by the end of the period, annual deployments of residential storage will hit 2GW/5.4GWh.

It says that projects are still being built at record-setting pace despite costs and supply chain issues causing delays and that its methodology includes additional risk weighting to account for supply chain issues

EUROPE'S ENERGY CRISIS CONUNDRUM

Origins, impact and way forward

an already dire situation.

Ahigh-price environment might become the ‘new normal’ as we progress down the pathway of decarbonisation.

 

https://www.iss.europa.eu/content/europes-energy-crisis-conundrum

 

 

 

 

The average wholesale gas and electricity price increases from 2019 to 2021 (September) were 429 % and 230 % respectively, according to Commission analysis ⁽¹⁷⁾. Day-ahead electricity prices surged to unprecedented levels, with prices exceeding €400/MWh for almost three quarters of Europeans on 21 December ⁽¹⁸⁾.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

3 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

The average wholesale gas and electricity price increases from 2019 to 2021 (September) were 429 % and 230 % respectively, according to Commission analysis ⁽¹⁷⁾. Day-ahead electricity prices surged to unprecedented levels, with prices exceeding €400/MWh for almost three quarters of Europeans on 21 December ⁽¹⁸⁾.

Yeah, fossil fuel dependence is a killer. Good thing they have low cost renewables to move to.

Edited March 24, 2022 by Jay McKinsey