notsonice + 1,255 DM March 30, 2022 On 3/29/2022 at 10:34 AM, Ecocharger said: Oil demand is strong going forward and oil is easily the hottest commodity on the markets. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/International-Energy-Forum-150-Oil-Is-Possible.html "Secretary-General of the International Energy Forum McMonigle: Oil prices could spike to $150 per barrel. Current IEF projections point to an impact of around 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) on Russian oil supply. McMonigle: We’re in store for a lot of volatility and higher prices over the next several months." Oil prices could spike to $150 per barrel.???? Thanks for making the case for EV's. Keep up the good work Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 March 30, 2022 2 hours ago, Ecocharger said: Read the world production and demand numbers for coal, not just for ONE country...coal demand is growing by leaps and bounds. All-time high production and usage levels. Demand for renewable energy is growing much faster. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM March 30, 2022 (edited) On 3/29/2022 at 10:08 AM, Ecocharger said: World-wide coal production and coal based energy have reached all-time highs now, and will continue to increase going forward. Wake up and smell the coffee. World Coal production peaked in 2014..............It has not reached the peak of 2014............your babbling BS again as you never post real data. reached all-time highs???? now is not 2014....you are living in the past and when you look at energy content it looks worse for coal....notice the drop from 2014 to 2020 the energy content of coal mined is getting worse and worse over time IE more lignite and less hard coal..... 49Cp Statistical Review of World Energy 2021Coal: Consumption*Exajoules 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total World 151.21 158.47 159.08 161.97 162.50 158.64 156.61 157.40 159.26 157.64 151.42 Edited March 30, 2022 by notsonice 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM March 30, 2022 (edited) Clean energy at 38 % in 2021 surpassing coal by 2%. Oh boy...... The low IQ coal lovers are not going to be happy when they read this A record 10% of the world's power was generated by wind, solar methods in 2021 Maria Jimenez Moya USA TODAY Published 3:05 pm ET March 30, 2022 Wind and solar power are the fastest-growing sources of energy, generating a 10% of the world's energy in 2021, according to a newly published climate report. Additionally, clean energy sources accounted for 38% of the world's total power supply last year, surpassing coal by 2%. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2022/03/30/clean-energy-wind-solar-2021/7219298001/ Edited March 30, 2022 by notsonice 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,460 DL April 1, 2022 On 3/30/2022 at 3:15 PM, Jay McKinsey said: Demand for renewable energy is growing much faster. Not in absolute terms, Jay, in fact green energy is just a drop in a drip. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,460 DL April 1, 2022 (edited) Despite the hysterical prattling of frustrated Greenies, investment in fossil fuels has reached historic levels of volumes. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Worlds-Top-Banks-Financed-Fossil-Fuels-With-742-Billion-In-2021.html "Overall, fossil fuel financing remained dominated by four U.S. banks, as JPMorgan Chase, Citi, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America together accounted for one-quarter of all fossil fuel financing over the last six years. Fracking received $62.1 billion in financing last year, and was dominated by North American banks with Wells Fargo at the top, funding producers like Diamondback Energy and pipeline companies like Kinder Morgan. Coal mining financing was led by Chinese banks, the report said, with China Merchants Bank and Ping An Group leading financing for the sector in 2021. In coal financing alone, between January 2019 and November of last year, commercial banks globally funneled a jaw-dropping $1.5 trillion into the coal industry, a previous report by environmental organizations found earlier this year. This week’s ‘Banking on Climate Chaos’ report showed that Citi and JPMorgan Chase provided the most financing for offshore oil and gas in 2021. In total, big banks channeled $52.9 billion into offshore oil and gas financing last year, the report noted." Edited April 1, 2022 by Ecocharger Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,460 DL April 1, 2022 (edited) On 3/30/2022 at 4:59 PM, notsonice said: Clean energy at 38 % in 2021 surpassing coal by 2%. Oh boy...... The low IQ coal lovers are not going to be happy when they read this A record 10% of the world's power was generated by wind, solar methods in 2021 Maria Jimenez Moya USA TODAY Published 3:05 pm ET March 30, 2022 Wind and solar power are the fastest-growing sources of energy, generating a 10% of the world's energy in 2021, according to a newly published climate report. Additionally, clean energy sources accounted for 38% of the world's total power supply last year, surpassing coal by 2%. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2022/03/30/clean-energy-wind-solar-2021/7219298001/ Coal has reached record volumes of production and usage for energy generation. Coal is still King. Read the numbers above. Edited April 1, 2022 by Ecocharger Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,460 DL April 1, 2022 (edited) On 3/30/2022 at 2:14 PM, notsonice said: Oil prices could spike to $150 per barrel.???? Thanks for making the case for EV's. Keep up the good work You still driving your own ICE to work? (Uh oh!) Edited April 1, 2022 by Ecocharger Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM April 1, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, Ecocharger said: You still driving your own ICE to work? (Uh oh!) drive to work???? My office is in my house.....When I head to my warehouse ...its on a bike. When I drive it is for short trips ( I drive less than 3000 miles a year to reduce fossil fuel use... always plan out trips to the stores to keep driving to a minimum) ............ And just completed a redo on many things in the house and only use 400 kwh a month............ on the upgrade New fridges /freezers Use a clothesline New cellular window coverings on all windows to reduce need for air conditioning and heat Rebuilt all windows (1930's) so they close properly All leds in the light fixtures All rooms have ceiling fans.... Installed an attic fan with thermostat to keep attic cool in the summer Added insulation to attic for both winter and summer Use a battery powered lawnmower/electric chainsaw and electric roto tiller and battery weed trimmer Next addition........24 solar panels on flat roof......powering 2 DC heat pumps/ac units with battery storage for total disconnect from grid and to also power the new car in 2024 replacing a 2003 suv with just over 100,000 miles.......you can do the math I do not drive very much. New car coming up.....Yep an EV which will be the last vehicle I ever need to buy. Rome was not built in a day ...........But I am getting there And you? wasting energy just because you can?????? Edited April 1, 2022 by notsonice Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM April 1, 2022 2 hours ago, Ecocharger said: Coal has reached record volumes of production and usage for energy generation. Coal is still King. Read the numbers above. yet you post no evidence.... As usual you are all BS and no facts. where are your numbers???????? you forgot to post them again.......Ha Ha Ha Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM April 1, 2022 (edited) B 1 Less coal once again...................................... BEIS gives go ahead for 1.5 GW East Anglia duo East Anglia duo cleared for planning exam 25 NOVEMBER 2019 SPR improves visual impact of East Anglia duo 1 1 BEIS Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng has given the go-ahead to ScottishPower Renewables for two offshore wind farms totalling 1500MW at its EA Hub project in the North Sea. The Conservative minister has granted development consent to the 602MW East Anglia 1 North and 867MW East Anglia 2 in a decision published this afternoon. Kwarteng, who has given approval subject to a number of conditions including tweaks to the proposed permit orders, said there was a “strong case” for both projects. “Given the national need for the development, as set out in the relevant NPSs, the Secretary of State does not believe that this is outweighed by the Proposed Development’s potential adverse impacts,” a decision letter for the EA1 North project stated. “The Secretary of State has considered all the merits and disbenefits of the Proposed Development and concluded that, on balance, the benefits of the Proposed Development outweigh its negative impacts,” added a decision letter for the EA2 project. The offshore wind farms will be located off the east coast of England, with EA1 North featuring up to 67 turbines and EA2 consisting of up to 75 turbines, all with maximum tip heights of 282 metres. SPR already has permission for the 1.4GW EA3, which together with EA1 North and EA2 will form the 2.9GW EA Hub project. A consent decision for the duo was expected on the 6 January but was pushed back after Kwarteng requested more information on issues relating to potential wildlife impacts and increased flood risks. Natural England voiced concerns that the projects were situated too close to the Outer Thames Estuary conservation zone and called for turbines to be moved at least 10km away in order to mitigate harm to red-throated divers. The Iberdrola-owned outfit agreed to scale back the proposed 800MW capacity at EA1N to 602MW in recent months to introduce an 8km gap while capacity was cut from 900MW to 867MW at EA2 to implement a 10km gap. It also submitted an additional suite of compensation measures for East Anglia 1 North to account for seabird displacement effects caused by the wind farm’s shorter buffer zone. Earlier this month, the statutory nature consultee said it was satisfied that such measures would maintain the integrity of the protected site. Edited April 1, 2022 by notsonice Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
specinho + 467 April 1, 2022 (edited) not too welcoming sign ..........📢 📢 📢 party pooper... party pooper... party pooper... found this piece of info from The Guinness Book of Amazing Nature, page 131: " (roughly) - major contributor for acid rain is sulphuric dioxide, besides nitrogen oxide. - Sources are fossil fuel power plants, car exhaust, other industrial facilities - in Europe, estimates suggest that as much as 70% of Black Forest, situated on the eastern bank of the Rhine, has been damaged by acid rain. - chemical emissions from British power stations have caused acid rain over Scandinavian countries" not too sure if the yellowish dying plants shown in the picture amidst a lush of green indicated damage caused by acid rain, but for what i have seen, the effect of acid rain on plants is immediate black burning dots where the rain drops hit..... I witnessed these in conjunction with active volcanic activity in a neighnouring country over a coastal region and in case of small open burning .......... Therefore, correct me if I am wrong, we are very adamant in phasing out coal because of acid rain that it could cause (by strong acid of sulphuric acid and nitric acid), yes? Not so much of weak acid caused by carbon dioxide? 'o' not too welcoming info 2: if, protein is amine with nitrogeneous compounds and minor of sulphuric, and protein is burnt above 100'C, then, we might be able to deduce that a) raw cut organic matter e.g. tree branches, wood logs, leaves etc, would produce sulphuric acid and nitric acid when burnt b) under high pressure and high heat compression over millions of years, all fossil fuel ( coal, petroleum, gas etc) would have protein burnt and hence, be having carbon and hydrogen mainly, no? If these assumptions are correct, then, gas forms sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxide could actually be removed before burning of fossil fuel to protect the trees and etc? Edited April 1, 2022 by specinho Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,460 DL April 2, 2022 20 hours ago, notsonice said: drive to work???? My office is in my house.....When I head to my warehouse ...its on a bike. When I drive it is for short trips ( I drive less than 3000 miles a year to reduce fossil fuel use... always plan out trips to the stores to keep driving to a minimum) ............ And just completed a redo on many things in the house and only use 400 kwh a month............ on the upgrade New fridges /freezers Use a clothesline New cellular window coverings on all windows to reduce need for air conditioning and heat Rebuilt all windows (1930's) so they close properly All leds in the light fixtures All rooms have ceiling fans.... Installed an attic fan with thermostat to keep attic cool in the summer Added insulation to attic for both winter and summer Use a battery powered lawnmower/electric chainsaw and electric roto tiller and battery weed trimmer Next addition........24 solar panels on flat roof......powering 2 DC heat pumps/ac units with battery storage for total disconnect from grid and to also power the new car in 2024 replacing a 2003 suv with just over 100,000 miles.......you can do the math I do not drive very much. New car coming up.....Yep an EV which will be the last vehicle I ever need to buy. Rome was not built in a day ...........But I am getting there And you? wasting energy just because you can?????? In other words, you are still clinging to a fossil fuel car for your daily needs....just what I suspected. Usually the most hysterical and fanatic opponents of fossil fuels are the ones who drive the old and dirty style internal combustion engines. Gas guzzlers. Thank you for making my point for me. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,460 DL April 2, 2022 (edited) The usual wild and panicked Green response to energy shortages, this release of reserves does nothing to change the markets. It just shuffles barrels from one pocket into another pocket, there is zero new oil production and nothing which would alter the price dynamics. This is simply a massive PR exercise, nothing real is happening. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Bidens-SPR-Release-Sends-Oil-Prices-Below-100.html "In a week that saw OPEC+ implementing its latest production increases and the United States announcing an unprecedented SPR release, oil prices saw their largest weekly decline in more than 2 years. Whilst the OPEC+ decision was far from a surprise, the readiness of the Biden administration to tame runaway fuel prices pushed Brent futures closer to the $100 per barrel mark. Despite the scope and ambition of Biden's latest move, it might not be enough to keep WTI below $100 per barrel as the sheer size of Russia’s potentially sanctionable 3 million b/d seaborne flow still looms over markets." Edited April 2, 2022 by Ecocharger Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,460 DL April 2, 2022 20 hours ago, notsonice said: yet you post no evidence.... As usual you are all BS and no facts. where are your numbers???????? you forgot to post them again.......Ha Ha Ha Read the articles above, coal is set to exceed all previous production levels. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eyes Wide Open + 3,554 April 2, 2022 Late last year, following widespread power shortages, China’s leadership repeatedly emphasised the importance of ensuring energy security – a country’s ability to secure sufficient and affordable energy supplies without interruption. China puts coal plants at full capacity, even as it touts hosting a 'green' Olympics https://www.npr.org/2022/02/16/1081141189/china-coal-olympics-environment POLICYAnalysis: What does China’s coal push mean for its climate goals? Late last year, following widespread power shortages, China’s leadership repeatedly emphasised the importance of ensuring energy security – a country’s ability to secure sufficient and affordable energy supplies without interruption. Since then, China – the world’s current largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2) – has seen an intense push to increase the production and supply of coal, its main energy source. The nation’s daily output from coal mining has set “record highs” multiple times in recent months due to boosts in production capacity. The coal stock at coal-fired power plants has been kept at “historically high levels”. Administratively, at least five new major coal-fired power projects were approved for construction in the first six weeks of the year and three “billion-dollar” coal mine projects were greenlighted in February. In terms of policy, China’s top administrative organ announced in mid-February that coal supply “will be increased” and coal power plants “will be supported” to run “at full capacity” to meet electricity demand. TWO SESSIONS: “Two sessions” is a collective term for two major national political meetings held in China every spring. Known as “liang hui” in Mandarin, they are the plenary sessions of the National People’s… Read More Furthermore, during this year’s “two sessions” – a series of important political meetings that take place in Beijing every spring – China’s president Xi Jinping reinforced the direction that coal would be the “mainstay” of the nation’s energy mix. Xi instructed that, based on China’s “national reality”, coal’s role “would be hard to change in the short term”. The recently published 14th five-year plan (FYP) for the energy sector has also stressed coal’s role in “ensuring the basic energy needs” and highlighted coal power’s importance in supporting the power system. The all-encompassing push for coal comes more than a year after Xi pledged that the nation would peak its carbon emissions “before 2030” and achieve carbon neutrality “before 2060” at the UN general assembly in September 2020. ‘DUAL CARBON’ GOALS: “Dual carbon” goals, or the 2030/2060 goals, refer to China’s 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly in September 2020. President Xi announced that China would reach its carbon emissions peak… Read More What triggered China’s recent policy on coal? Why does the nation still rely on it? And, most importantly, what does the coal push mean for Beijing’s “dual-carbon goals”? Carbon Brief has spoken to a wide range of experts to understand these issues. Most experts agree that the ramp-up of coal is a short-term policy adjustment and does not represent a “walk back” by China on its long-term climate commitments. However, they have different views on how the move might – or might not – affect the level of CO2 at which China will peak, which, in turn, will directly affect its carbon neutrality agenda, as well as global climate efforts. Why does China use coal? How has China boosted coal production recently? Why is China still building new power plants? Will the coal push affect China’s climate goals? Why does China use coal? China is the world’s largest consumer, producer and importer of coal, with its consumption and production each accounting for around half of the global totals. Coal is widely used in China for generating electricity, despite the country’s rapid growth of renewable energy in recent years. According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, coal accounted for 56% of the country’s total energy consumption in 2021. The ratio signifies a continuous decline from more than 70% in the mid-2000s. Nevertheless, the absolute level of China’s coal use has continued to rise. China is also home to the world’s largest fleet of coal-fired power plants, making up around 50% of the operating capacity globally. A global coal map produced by Carbon Brief shows the high concentration of coal power plants in China. However, to understand Chinese policymakers’ approach to coal, one needs to look beyond these figures and understand a bigger picture about China, such as its history, economic growth and politics, experts have told Carbon Brief. To start with, China has abundant coal reserves. As President Xi has put it, the country is “rich in coal, poor in oil and low in gas (富煤贫油少气)”. Boasting the world’s fourth largest coal reserves – after the US, Russia and Australia – China produces around 90% of the coal it consumes. (In comparison, it imports around 70% and 50% of the oil and gas it needs, respectively.) “Resource endowment is a very important reason why China uses so much coal,” Dr Xie Chunping, policy fellow at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment in London, tells Carbon Brief. She says: “China’s resource endowment means that coal is low in cost and only by using a low-cost fuel can a country support its economic growth, especially in the initial stages.” (Dr Xie recently analysed whether China is living up to its climate pledges in her guest post for Carbon Brief.) Over the past 40 years, China has seen an economic boom, with its annual GDP growth averaging 9.5%. As a cost-competitive source of energy, coal has propelled the transformation, according to Yu Aiqun, China researcher with Global Energy Monitor. Yu tells Carbon Brief that coal in itself “is cheap”, barring its social and environmental costs. Since China opened its doors to the world in the late 1970s, cheap energy – along with cheap land and cheap labour – has boosted China’s economic competitiveness globally, allowing it to be the “factory of the world”, Yu notes. Dr Guo Li – research associate of the Lau China Institute at King’s College London – shares similar opinions. She tells Carbon Brief that coal is “extremely important to China” because the country is still in the process of industrialisation. She explains: “Manufacturing has always been the backbone of the Chinese economy. In addition, in more recent years, China has also seen large-scale, rapid infrastructure construction. Therefore, it must rely on a source of energy that is cheaply available and can be managed easily on the technical front.” Dr Guo says that it is difficult for China to kick its coal habit because the scale of its economy is “so big” and, for a long time, it depended on this single form of energy. But she also highlights China’s “very astonishing portfolio” in renewable energy. To Dr Guo, this shows that “no matter how important coal is, China is indeed trying to lessen its reliance on it”. (China’s installed solar and wind energy capacity now accounts for 35-40% of the global total. According to the International Energy Agency, China is expected to reach 1,200 gigawatts of total wind and solar capacity in 2026 – four years earlier than its current target of 2030.) The above screenshot from China’s state broadcaster shows Chinese president Xi Jinping (far left) inspecting the coal warehouse of a thermal power company in Shanxi province, China, before the Lunar New Year holiday on 27 January 2022. Credit: CCTV/Xinwenlianbo. Due to its close ties with the economy, coal has been embedded deeply into the country’s social and economic structure, especially its energy system. For example, China’s power grid has been built to solely accommodate coal power, says China-based Dr Kevin Mo, who describes coal as “China’s most dependable energy resource”. Dr Mo is principal at innovative Green Development Program (iGDP), a consultancy focusing on green and low-carbon development in Beijing. He explains coal’s importance to China’s power grid to Carbon Brief: “The whole grid’s transmission, distribution and operation logic all centre around coal power. If the grid is to cater to renewable energy, the transmission, for example, would need to be completely different. That is why the transition of the energy system would not be that fast.” Geopolitics is also “very important” for China’s policymaking on coal and energy security, Dr Mo notes, “because energy security is also a matter of national security”. Dr Mo says that because China has its own coal but depends highly on imports for oil and gas, policymakers need to ensure that, if the worst comes to the worst, the country’s basic social and economic activities would still be able to run on coal power. Therefore, they need to make sure that the country has sufficient mining and production capacity while also trying to develop renewable energy. History plays a role in shaping China’s mindset on coal, too, according to Yu of Global Energy Monitor. She says that the Chinese authority has a “deep-rooted fear” of being isolated from the world due to its memories of being sanctioned – something that explains its emphasis of being “self-sufficient”. Yu says that for a long time after China’s Communist Party took over the country in 1949, the party faced simultaneous supply and technical restrictions from the US and the ex-Soviet Union due to a mix of issues and the experience taught it that it must rely on itself for key supplies. She adds: “These experiences of being isolated have been ingrained in the authority’s memories. Therefore, China has and is still depending on coal because it would not need to ask other people for it.” Yu stresses that, for China, energy security is the “cornerstone” of ensuring economic development and political stability. From this perspective, to the Chinese authority, “nothing is more important than maintaining political and social stability”, she says. (These memories are also why China has “such high enthusiasm” for renewable energy while carrying on using coal, according to Yu. She explains that, apart from the fact that China has abundant renewable resources which could offer the country an opportunity to phase out coal, developing renewable energy means that “China would be able to take a technological vantage point and, eventually, have the right to speak on the world stage”.) Although some high-profile climate diplomats – such as US climate envoy John Kerry and COP26 president Alok Sharma – have called on China to move away from coal faster, policy advisors to the Chinese government have expressed very different views on the fuel, which can prove controversial to many. Prof Du Xiangwan – a high-profile academic and deputy director of China’s National Energy Advisory Committee of Experts – has a quote: “Coal is a hero. Coal reduction is progress.” (煤炭是功臣。减煤是进步。) Speaking recently on CCTV, China’s state broadcaster, Prof Du said that people should recognise the “contribution” coal had made to “environmental protection”. He said that, in history, the prevailing use of coal to provide energy was the reason mankind stopped cutting down forests. Prof Du explained to the audience coal’s “great merit” in history – especially in “boosting” human productivity – before acknowledging the necessity to cut coal consumption, calling the action “progress”. In explaining China’s energy policy, Prof Du said: “Right now, we must first use coal well. [We must] use coal cleanly and efficiently while reducing carbon emissions safely. In the meantime, [we must] also develop new energy well and let it grow.” While juggling between its climate targets and coal policy, China also needs to consider its citizens’ livelihood and wellbeing, as well as the nation’s social and economic situations, according to other Chinese government advisers. Prof Wang Yi, a senior advisor to the Chinese delegation at COP26, told Carbon Brief last year during an interview at the climate conference in Glasgow: “Tomorrow China could get rid of all the coal [consumption], but what about heating, right? What about the workers? Besides, our coal power fleet has only been running for an average of a dozen years. If they are all shut down, who will pay for the stranded cost?…We need to have a good pathway for coal exit and that is why we say that we have to promote [such work] in an orderly manner.” Chinese energy researcher Dr Zhu Tong told state TV that coal is the “staple” of China’s energy system. Therefore, reducing coal consumption would have a “completely different” economic effect on China compared to Europe, whose main energy sources are oil and gas. ‘NEW ENERGY’: China has not given an official definition of "new energy" so far. But, according to a book published by Tsinghua University, the term refers to the renewable energy developed and utilised using… Read More Dr Zhu is the director of the energy economic research office at the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. According to his online profile, his proposals on energy policy and industry strategies have been “responded to” by the nation’s leaders “many times”. Dr Zhu told CCTV – in the same programme that featured Prof Du – that China’s current priority is to stabilise its economy, which calls for the stabilisation of the manufacturing industry. He said: “We must recognise clearly that China’s economic status in the world today is mostly earned by its manufacturing industry. Therefore, the economy would not be stable without the stability of the industry. “Economic growth means that energy consumption will also grow stably…In the current phase, the urgency of reducing carbon must take into consideration its feasibility on the ground. We must guarantee the reasonable energy demand and growth of traditional industries. We must ensure industrial growth while phasing out fossil fuels.” How has China boosted coal production recently? China experienced two waves of electricity shortages last year. The first occurred in May and hit five provinces in southern China, including Guangdong, which is known for its manufacturing industry. China’s state news agency Xinhua reported at the time that Guangdong’s power grid operator had had to ration the electricity for businesses to tackle “record-breaking” power consumption caused by factors including hot weather and a post-pandemic economic rebound. But alarm bells did not ring – at least not loudly enough – until a more severe wave of power shortages broke out in August. Electricity rationing spread from southern China to around two-thirds of the nation and from factories to families. (Carbon Brief assessed the causes of the power shortages last October.) The “energy crisis” – as described by some publications – was met with swift actions from China’s leadership. It took a series of steps to achieve three goals: emphasising the role of coal, boosting its production and stabilising its prices. The first signal came from Xi in late September when he was inspecting a factory in one of China’s largest coal-producing regions. Xi described coal as the country’s “main [source of] energy”, signalling the fuel’s key position. (Notably, this speech came six days before Xi announced that the country “will not build new coal-fired power projects abroad” at the UN General Assembly.) In October, two high-level government meetings – both chaired by China’s premier Li Keqiang – were held to give specific orders to tackle the power shortages and to bolster supply security. Almost immediately, authorities in major coal-producing regions – including Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia – ordered more than 150 “qualified” coal mines to “release advanced production capacity”, which amounted to 220m tonnes a year, Xinhua reported. The state energy regulator, the National Energy Administration, also sent teams to various parts of the country to “supervise” and “guide” local companies to “solidly implement” the measures of boosting coal production and supply, according to China Power News Network, a state-approved media outlet. Xi made another speech in late October, underscoring the importance of energy self-reliance. He said that the country “must hold the energy food bowl in its own hands”. (Carbon Brief’s China Briefing interpreted this quote of Xi last year.) A drone picture shows an open-pit coal mine in Ejin Horo Banner, China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region, on 19 October 2021. Credit: Oriental Image. Days later, at COP26 in Glasgow, China said that it would “phase down coal consumption” during the 15th five-year plan (FYP) from 2026 to 2030 and “make best efforts to accelerate this work” in the US-China joint declaration released during the climate summit. It also pushed for the wording of “phasing down” – rather than “phasing out” – of coal in the final “Glasgow Climate Pact”. By the end of last December, it had become clear that coal would remain China’s dominant source of energy for the time being. At the year-end economic planning meeting – which set key economic goals for the nation for 2022 – the central government underlined the role of fossil fuels, saying that “traditional energy” should “exit gradually” on the basis of “safe and reliable new energy”. (This order echoed Xi’s previous instruction of “establishing before breaking”, which Carbon Brief explained last August.) The meeting also repeated Xi’s previous line of coal being the country’s “main [source of] energy” and pointed to the concept of “clean and efficient utilisation of coal”. The government-led production drive saw a quick result. China’s coal production “hit record highs” in both December and across the whole of 2021, according to Reuters. In early January, Xinhua reported that China’s efforts to ensure the supply of coal power had achieved “phased” success. The state news agency described coal as the “ballast stone” of secure and stable energy supply – a metaphor that had been used by the head of the state energy regulator in December. (Coal has also been called “the foundation” and “the last barrier” of the energy system by Chinese officials and state media.) Then came a sudden rush of approvals for new coal-fired power projects. During the first six weeks of 2022, five new coal power projects with a combined capacity of 7.3 gigawatts (GW) were approved, according to a recent briefing jointly published by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Global Energy Monitor (GEM). The news came after such permissions had been “essentially frozen in 2021”, the report noted. In February, the state economic planner also approved three “billion-dollar” coal mine projects in the country’s coal belt, which “will require a total investment of 24.1bn yuan ($3.8bn) and produce 19m tonnes of coal a year”, according to Bloomberg. Despite a major national holiday, the Lunar New Year, coal mines around the country endeavoured to increase their production in the beginning of this year. In January and February, the country’s coal production registered a 10.3% year-on-year jump, reaching 690m tonnes, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Reuters reported that the rise followed Beijing’s campaign to “ramp up production for the winter heating season”. Across last year, China produced 4.1bn tonnes of raw coal, increasing by 5.7% year-on-year, the official annual statistical report said. The report also noted that China’s coal consumption went up by 4.6% in 2021. Calculations done by Dr Yang Muyi – senior electricity policy analyst of Asia at Ember, an independent climate and energy thinktank – show that China’s coal consumption reached a “record high” of 2.93bn tonnes of standard coal (tce) last year. (Dr Yang has recently explained the causes behind the surge in Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.) Nevertheless, China’s coal consumption has remained relatively flat over the past decade, as the chart below shows. The chart displays the consumption in two different units, tce (which is an energy measurement) and tonne (which is a weight measurement). The tce figures are calculated based on the proportion of coal consumption in the total energy consumption, released by the China statistical yearbooks. The tonne figures are released directly by the yearbooks. The Chinese authorities have not released the tonne figure for 2020 or 2021. The above chart shows how China’s coal consumption has changed in the past decade. The pale blue line (top) represents the trend in coal’s weight, or billions of tonnes. China has yet to release its coal consumption by weight for 2020 and 2021. The dark blue line (bottom) measures coal consumption by billions of tonnes of standard coal (tce), an energy measurement. If measured in tce, China’s coal consumption reached a “record high” in 2021, according to calculations by Dr Yang Muyi of Ember. Dr Yang has analysed the causes behind the growth in Carbon Brief’s China Briefing. Chart by Joe Goodman for Carbon Brief, using Highcharts. In March, the position of coal – along with the significance of energy security – was cemented at the “two sessions” when government officials and political advisors convened in Beijing to review the country’s performance in 2021 and draw goals for 2022. (See the significance of the “two sessions” in this Carbon Brief Q&A.) During the meetings, Xi stated that the “reality of coal being the mainstay of the energy mix will not change in the short term”, while the annual government work report listed the “clean and efficient utilisation of coal” as a task for 2022. Also at the “two sessions”, the state economic planner set the daily coal production target at “more than 12m tonnes” while its deputy director said the “focus” of its work for the year was to “ensure coal supply and stabilise coal prices”. (China Briefing recently analysed this year’s “two sessions”.) In the latest development, China’s 14FYP plan (2021-2025) for the energy sector – a highly anticipated industry roadmap for the next five years – was published on 22 March, further sealing coal’s role in the country’s future power system. The document instructs all central government organs and regional governments to “enhance” coal’s role in “ensuring the basic needs” of energy security, “give full play” to coal power’s role of being a “supporting” and “flexible” energy source, and “vigorously promote” the “clean and efficient” use of coal. Also on 22 March, China’s vice premier Han Zheng – who leads China’s leaders group for “dual-carbon” work – convened a high-level meeting dedicated to coal, reported Xinhua. Han ordered leaders of “relevant” government agencies and companies to “deeply understand” that promoting the “clean and efficient” use of coal is a “vital path” to achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, according to Xinhua. Neither the 14FYP for energy nor Han explained what “clean and efficient” use of coal means exactly. According to Dr Ryna Cui – assistant research professor and co-director for the China Program at the Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy in the US – “clean coal” refers to “the more efficient coal use, such as ultra-supercritical coal plants with ultra-low air pollutant emissions”. Dr Cui says that the average coal consumption per kilowatt hour (kwh) of electricity generation “has been declining” in China “through a combination of replacing the old, dirty, inefficient fleets with new builds and retrofitting”. But she also cautions: “However, without a target on total consumption, it is unlikely that efficiency improvement itself can deliver large emissions reduction.” In a related explanation, China announced in February 2019 that it had built “the world’s largest clean coal power supply system” after completing “ultra-low emissions and energy-saving revamps” on the majority of its coal fleet “two years ahead of schedule”. (Dr Xie Chunping also shares her views on the meaning of “clean and efficient” use of coal lower down.) Speaking of Beijing’s series of coal-boosting instructions, all of the experts interviewed by Carbon Brief refer to last year’s power shortages as a direct driving factor. Byford Tsang – London-based senior policy advisor at E3G, a climate change thinktank – tells Carbon Brief that there has been a “shift in the rhetoric” towards coal since the “power crunch”, with the government underlining China’s “endowment” of coal and describing the fuel as the “most prominent” energy source that the country needs to secure and supply. But, in Tsang’s opinion, this did not represent a “policy shift” because the Chinese government had already underlined the importance of energy security in its 14FYP, which was approved in March 2021. (Read Carbon Brief’s assessment of the 14FYP.) Tsang explains: “The one thing we picked up back then [in March 2021] was the stress on energy security. Energy security was listed as one of the three security risks of China’s development for the 14FYP period, alongside financial and food security.” “Within the plan, there was also language regarding the clean and efficient use of coal and raising coal production and production of oil and gas. All of that is not new, but the power crunch has definitely made policymakers more focused on energy security.” Some experts also highlight the role of the 2021 “global energy crisis” – which caused “all-time high” fuel prices and “supply chain disruptions” – in China’s recent coal policy. Matt Gray – co-chief executive of TransitionZero, a London-based “climate analytics firm” – tells Carbon Brief that the “ongoing energy crisis and shortages internationally” is “probably a factor” behind Beijing’s “refocus” on energy security. He adds that the situation is “obviously going to be exacerbated by the recent news of what is happening in Ukraine”. (Carbon Brief has analysed the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on energy and climate change in this Q&A). A recent Bloomberg article reflects Gray’s concern. The outlet reported on 14 March that China is planning “a massive increase” in coal mining in a move that “will dramatically reduce” its dependence on coal imports and “deal a blow to its near-term climate actions”. It said that such an increase in mining would cut China’s “already scant” reliance on foreign coal “after global prices hit record levels in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine”. A separate Bloomberg report said that the effects of the coal push “could already be evident from space” due to a “powerful cloud” of methane captured by a satellite above China. In a report published on 21 March, the outlet said that a boost in coal mining may have led to the plume of methane – a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) with an estimated warming potential of around 30 times that of CO2 – that has been detected in a location near a coal mine in Inner Mongolia. Why is China still building new coal power plants? Apart from the recent coal-production boost, China’s continuous construction and approval of new coal-fired power plants also form part of the picture as to how Beijing views the role of coal. While more than 40 countries pledged to phase out their use of coal-fired power at last November’s COP26, the construction of new plants is expected to carry on in China. Currently, China is home to more than half of the new power plants that are expected to be built in the world, according to the Global Coal Plant Tracker. The database shows that, as of January 2022, 158GW of new coal-fired power capacity had been announced, pre-permitted or permitted in China, making up 57% of the global pipeline. The briefing by CREA and GEM finds that China started construction on 33GW of new coal power plants in 2021, “the most since 2016 and almost three times as much as the rest of the world put together”. An address by Xi last April set the tone for the country’s stance on coal for this decade. Speaking at the Leaders Summit on Climate via video link, Xi announced: “China will strictly control coal-fired power generation projects and strictly limit the increase in coal consumption over the 14FYP period (2021-2025) and phase it down in the 15FYP period (2026-2030).” (Although the Chinese government has not provided an explanation of Xi’s words, many observers and media outlets believe that they mean China plans to peak its coal consumption in 2025. Prof Du Xiangwan interpreted China’s coal policy last month on CCTV, which China Briefing reported on.) It is worth noting that, although China is still planning, approving and building new coal-fired power plants, the new projects usually use “high-efficiency” units that are aimed at reducing coal consumption and pollution. A scheme issued last November by the National Development and Reform Commission – the state economic planner – on the “retrofit and upgrade” of coal power has given detailed instructions on the “efficiency” levels that new and existing coal power units need to reach in various aspects. In addition, the document stipulates that new coal power capacity “may” replace the capacity left by the “backward” capacity that has been shut down. (China has been closing down small, older and more polluting units over the past few years.) An aerial picture shows the Beijiang coal-fired power plant operating on 13 December 2021 in Tianjin, China. Credit: Oriental Image. Matt Gray of TransitionZero says that even though the new coal power plants that are being built in China do not involve “enormous” investments in themselves, what they mean is that “China does see coal as a primary source of securing energy, still”. Gray says that such a perspective is “a false narrative” because “what the world learned last year was that coal is not as abundant or as secure as it has previously been considered”. He tells Carbon Brief: “What we are trying to communicate is that renewable energy is low in cost and a secure electricity source in a way that coal can’t be. The signal we are getting out of China is that policymakers are not entirely convinced of that yet.” Yu Aiqun tells Carbon Brief what the surge of coal-plant approvals signifies is that “the direction of wind has changed”. Yu says that the Chinese government has always been “walking a tightrope” in “balancing” two areas of work: pollution and emission control versus economic and energy security. Because it is “very hard” to find a “balance point” for these needs, even though the Chinese government would try to aim for a “balance” in the long term, it often swings from one side to another in the short term, Yu explains, adding: “For example, when fast economic growth [causes high pollution and emissions] or when there are major international events, such as President Xi’s climate pledges and COP26, international pressure will force China to lean towards protecting the environment and tackling climate change. However, when there are issues with energy supply or when energy security is endangered, it will shift to favouring the other side.” Yu points out that those approvals also highlight a “strong impulse” of building coal power plants in China. She notes: “Usually, it would take a company two to three years to prepare the documents to apply for the construction approval [for a coal-fired power plant]. The string of approvals means that the operators had been well prepared and waiting for the floodgates to open.” Yu adds that the central government had been relying on strict policies to “suppress” new coal plants, but once the direction of policy changed, the “restless production capacity suddenly rushed out”. Dr Mo of Beijing-based iGDP also mentions such an “impulse”, even though – as he says – “many organisations in the country have urged against approving new projects”. Dr Mo explains that the “impulse” comes from local governments because building coal power plants can help boost their regions’ economic performance. Besides, some provinces want to build coal-fired power plants so that they can stop relying on other provinces for electricity due to the province-based setup of China’s power grids, Dr Mo adds. (Currently, applications for new coal-fired power plants are verified and approved by provincial governments in China, after the central government delegated its power to them in 2014. However, the provincial governments do not have 100% authority on the matter, either. Carbon Brief understands that, although they are the one to issue the permits, they must follow – and sometimes guess – the central government’s policy direction while considering the applications. This Carbon Brief guest post touched upon the topic.) Some experts perceive new coal-fired power capacity as “necessary” to ensure a stable grid for meeting growing demand in the near term, according to Dr Ryna Cui at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy. “One argument for that is to use coal plants for providing flexible peaking services to help support an increasing share of renewables in the grid,” Dr Cui tells Carbon Brief. She also says: “Given the construction period of coal plants [is] between 18 to 36 months or even longer, [China] is likely to see continued coal power capacity growth over the next few years even if most early stages projects are cancelled. Total installed capacity will also depend on how much older plants can be retired.” The “argument” mentioned by Dr Cui echoes recent instructions coming out of Beijing, which now regards coal power as part of the nation’s renewable-led power system in the future. A high-level meeting chaired by Xi in January instructed that the country should “vigorously plan and construct” a “new energy supply and accommodation system” (新能源供给消纳体系), which would see “large-scale” solar and wind energy bases as the “foundation”, “clean and efficient” coal power capacity as the “support”, and “stable, safe and reliable” ultra-high-voltage transmission lines as the “carrier”. Interpreting the directives, Prof Zeng Ming from the Energy Internet Research Centre at the North China Electric Power University in Beijing told Yicai – a Shanghai-based financial publication – that a main method used by China to build such a future system is to pair large wind and solar farms with “clean and efficient” coal power capacity in their surrounding areas. The latter could “balance out” the “instability” of renewable resources, Prof Zeng noted. He added that power would be sent for long distances to load centres by ultra-high-voltage transmission lines in the future system. The newly published 14FYP for energy centres around the development of a “modern energy system” which chimes with Xi’s command for a “clean, low-carbon, secure and highly efficient” energy system. (China Briefing analysed the 14FYP for energy this month.) Zhang Jianhua, the head of China’s state energy regulator, told China Power News Network that while China must “accelerate” the development of non-fossil fuels, coal power would be tasked to provide “flexible” services to help the power system take in more new energy. Chai Qimin – director of the strategy and planning department of the National Centre for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, a government-affiliated thinktank – expects fossil fuels to “work” with non-fossil fuels. He told the 21st Century Business Herald, a Chinese financial publication: “The development of the entire new type power system in the future needs optimised combinations of fossil fuels and non-fossil fuels, traditional energy and new energy. [They] need to play different roles and work together.” All these instructions and comments help to provide an official explanation as to why China is still approving and building new coal-fired power plants, as well as retrofitting existing units. China has sent out “very clear” messages that the “role of coal power has changed”, according to Dr Xie Chunping from the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment. In her view, building new coal-fired power capacity is “important” for ensuring power supply during energy transition when growth in non-fossil energy power generation is not large enough to cover incremental increases in electricity demand. Dr Xie tells Carbon Brief that the Chinese government has indicated “clearly” that new coal-fired power plants will be treated as “flexible resources or capacity” in the future to help ensure the security and stability of power supply – instead of operating at their full capacity. Such a message means that building new coal-fired power plants does not necessarily equal an increase of CO2 emissions in the future, as those new plants’ actual operating hours could be controlled at “a very low number” once renewable capacity builds up, Dr Xie explains. She adds: “Although those newly built coal-fired power plants will not retire in a short period of time, their operating hours can be very low. The reason why they need to exist and their existence is very important is that in the short term they can meet the fast growing electricity demand, while in the long term they can work as peak regulation capacity and support high penetration of renewable integration through providing the necessary flexibility.” “When renewable energy and energy storage technologies are fully developed, [China] can rely more on wind and solar generation and reduce the utilisation of coal power capacity whenever possible. This energy transition is not only good for the environment and climate, but also crucial for ensuring national energy supply security in the long term, as renewables are much safer than fossil fuels which are often associated with uncertainties and geopolitical conflicts.” A solar power farm is pictured against rapeseed in Yueqing, China’s Zhejiang province, on 16 March 2022. Credit: Oriental Image. Moreover, Dr Xie points out that moving away from coal is a challenge faced by many countries, not just China. She says that coal consumption continues to drop “steeply” in developed countries, however, the phase-out of coal in many developing countries is a “daunting challenge”. Dr Xie says that the proportion of coal in China’s energy mix is “too high”, therefore, a transition cannot happen “overnight” and needs to happen “step by step”. On the administrative level, China’s state energy regulator has said that, “in principle”, China will not build coal power projects whose sole purpose is to generate electricity in the 14FYP period. But the authority hinted that some coal power projects would still be approved and built as it said that the country would “arrange a certain scale of supportive power sources to ensure the security of electricity supply, as well as adjustable power sources to facilitate the accommodation of new energy”. The above messages were not issued as a direct order by the state energy regulator. Instead, they came in a reply from the authority to a political proposal submitted during last year’s “two sessions”. Notably, the response was made in August but, according to various Chinese reports, it was only published in late February. This indicates that it was a message the Chinese government wanted to convey at that particular time. Dr Xie says the state energy regulator intended to answer a key question through the messages: is China going back on its climate commitments by building new coal power capacity? According to its response, the answer is “no”, because China has assigned a new role for coal power, Dr Xie explains. E3G’s Byford Tsang says that the response served two purposes. One is to explain some of the elements in the energy 14FYP plan. The other is to clarify how China plans to “strictly control” the buildout of coal power plants. The explanation by Chinese policy advisers also pointed to the “changing role” of coal power, as Dr Xie has mentioned. Prof Wang Zhongying – another senior adviser to the Chinese government at COP26 – told Carbon Brief in an interview that there is a “widespread misunderstanding” that China’s climate pledges means that it would stop building coal power plants. Prof Wang emphasised that what China talks about is exiting the consumption of coal, not the installed capacity of coal power generation. Prof Wang elaborated in his interview: “In some places, it is possible that green electricity from wind and solar, for the moment, due to the grid [availability] or other reasons, such as network load, cannot be delivered. But if it [such places] happens to have coal [supply] and installed [coal-fired power generation] capacity, then it can build [some coal power plants]. It is possible that [such places] will develop a few new coal power plants sporadically. But, at the same time, the old and ancient installed capacity will also be retired.” Prof Wang added: “From our point of view, what we need to do now is to further constantly lower the operating hours of installed coal power, while keeping the power system operating smoothly, safely and efficiently. And, here, ‘efficiency’ means to accommodate more [renewable energy].” Will the coal push affect China’s climate goals? There is a range of views about what China’s recent push for coal production would mean for its climate goals, especially its efforts towards carbon neutrality. From a policy perspective, although all the experts interviewed by Carbon Brief believe that China should be able to follow its timeline of peaking CO2 emissions despite the coal boost, some worry that the move could make China’s decarbonisation “slower” and “more costly”. Byford Tsang says that the increasing “focus on coal” lately “is not great news” to China’s “dual-carbon” goals. He underlines that the Chinese government, however, “has given itself a lot of wiggle room” in interpreting its carbon-peaking target because the official wording only refers to the timeline as “before 2030”. In Tsang’s opinion, “strictly speaking”, China is “not walking back on its target”, but he warns that “that any additional fossil fuel is going to be stranded asset because it is not going to run the full course of the lifetime if we are to meet the peaking and neutrality goals, or getting China’s emission trajectory in line with the 1.5C target under the Paris Agreement”. He notes: “[The recent coal push] might not have a big impact on China meeting the 2030 target alone, but it will make China’s transition [towards carbon neutrality] more costly because more new coal power plants will mean more stranded assets and the local economy will rely more on fossil fuels and it is going to make it harder to move away.” Tsang expects the combination of the “power crunch” and the “increasing geopolitical tensions” between China and “the West” to give Chinese policymakers “a more difficult choice” in balancing the need to transition its energy structure and to “save” energy security “because coal is the fall-back option”. Dr Ryna Cui believes that any actions that promote coal – rather than phasing it down – “will add challenges” for China’s “post-2030 transition”. As Dr Cui puts it, China’s near-term commitments on carbon peaking and coal phasedown do not include specific targets on the total CO2 emissions or coal consumption and, thus, “leave room for uncertainties”. Even though net-zero is “far down the road”, this decade is “certainly critical”, she notes, adding that actions such as peaking earlier at a lower level and accelerating the process to start phasing down coal “can set forth a good path toward carbon neutrality”. She continues: “The opposite actions will add challenges for the post-2030 transition. Building new coal plants will have economic implications with increased stranded assets, although the emissions impact is less clear with reduced utilisation levels and more efficient use of coal.” (A new report co-authored by Dr Cui develops an “orderly” plan for China to phase down coal in the 14FYP and 15FYP periods. The report was jointly published by the Centre for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy and the California-China Climate Institute.) Coal is “China’s 800-pound gorilla” and “phaseout is absolutely critical” in order for China to meet its climate targets, according to Matt Gray. In particular, he highlights the financial risks of falling back on the fuel, as he tells Carbon Brief: “Failure to caveat spending to avoid coal plant investments will have implications on China’s net-zero pledge and economy. Previous analysis from TransitionZero shows that China would need to close, convert or put into reserve capacity 364GW of coal by 2030 in order to meet its net-zero pledge and that continued exposure to coal poses increased economic risk, given the price volatility associated with coal compared to zero-carbon alternatives. As for Prof Alex Wang – the faculty co-director of the Emmett Institute on Climate Change and the Environment of UCLA School of Law in the US – the instructions coming out of the recent “two sessions” are “worrisome from an environmental perspective”, though “not surprising in a period of economic uncertainty”. He says: “This year’s NPC meeting has emphasised economic growth. Official comments on climate policy have continually emphasised the need to move cautiously on coal reduction. Perhaps this is just a call for ‘smart’ decarbonisation, but it is hard to see how this does not also mean ‘slower’ decarbonisation.” However, Chai Qimin – who works for a government-affiliated thinktank in Beijing – sees the issue from a different angle. He told the 21st Century Business Herald that pursuing the “dual-carbon” goals does not mean that China will not develop its coal industry. Chai stressed that the operating efficiency of China’s coal-fired power units were “generally high” (something Yu Aiqun and Dr Xie Chunping tell Carbon Brief, too) and that coal-fired power capacity “will grow appropriately before 2030”. He said that those newly built units would “continue to play a role in the future” and even become “an entry ticket” for investment in renewable energy, due to China’s current policy. Regarding the financial prospect for those newly built coal power plants, Chai told the outlet that China’s power pricing system could be reformed to ensure that electricity generated by those plants would be paid “relatively higher” prices as a supportive measure. He added: “Therefore, in the future, coal power [plants] would not need to operate for more than 4,000 hours to make a profit. It is possible that [they] could make profit by generating power for more than 1,000 or even just several hundred hours.” Dr Liao Xuanli – senior lecturer on international relations and energy security studies at the University of Dundee in Scotland – says that although there are “quite some uncertainties”, she does not think that China would boost coal use “for too long” with “the advancement of technology”, such as “clean coal”, carbon capture and storage (CCS), carbon capture and utilisation (CCUS) and hydrogen. (According to an explainer published by the Paper – a Shanghai-based news website – “clean coal” refers to the coal that is “processed” and, therefore, “emits significantly less sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and dust” while burning.) Dr Liao notes that “the temporary policy would not affect China’s climate agenda in the long run”. She explains: “If you could compare China’s case with the EU’s view on natural gas, it might be easier to understand the current situation in China.” (Many policymakers in the EU have viewed gas as a “bridge” from coal to renewables, though Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and high gas prices have posed severe challenges to this position.) A driver is pictured unloading what is described as “clean coal” for residents in Jinan, China’s Shandong province, on 21 October 2021. Credit: Oriental Image. From an emissions point of view, the opinions are more varied on whether the recent coal drive would push up China’s carbon peak level, which will have a knock-on effect on the effort needed to neutralise those emissions. Dr Xie Chunping thinks that the push “will certainly affect” the level of China’s CO2 emissions in “the following few years” because more coal is being used to meet the growing demand. But she says that the move “may not necessarily” affect the timing and level of China’s emissions peak, “as long as China starts to significantly reduce the utilisation rates of coal-fired plants and use them as backup capacity, once renewables build up”. Dr Yang Muyi of Ember says that when and at what level China will peak its CO2 emissions “largely” depends on the trajectory of its emission intensity, the CO2 emissions per unit of GDP. Dr Yang points out that China’s emission intensity has seen a declining trend in recent years, highlighting that between 2005 and 2019, the benchmark had dropped by 48.1% – higher than the country’s initial targets of 40%-45% intensity reduction by 2020. He refers to previous analysis conducted by Carbon Brief, which suggested that China’s CO2 emissions would peak in 2027 at 12.7bn tonnes if the country could reduce its emissions intensity by 65% of 2005 levels by 2030 – a target set by China’s original nationally determined contribution (NDC). This would require an estimated annual reduction of 3.1-5.2% after 2020, according to the analysis. (China has enhanced its emissions intensity target to a “more than 65%” drop from 2005 levels in its updated NDC published last October.) Dr Yang says the recent ramp-up of coal production “may contribute to” – but not necessarily lead to – higher CO2 emissions intensity. He notes that as long as the country’s overall CO2 emissions intensity could continue to fall at the rates “considered sufficient” for hitting the 60%-65% targets – in this case, an estimated 3.1-5.2% annual reduction rate – it is “very likely” that it would be able to peak its CO2 emissions “before 2030” at the projected 12.7bn tonnes, assuming that China’s economy grows at expected rates. Dr He Gang – assistant professor in the Department of Technology and Society at the Stony Brook University in the US – tells Carbon Brief that China has made clear its long-term climate pledges, but “when and at what scale” China peaks its emissions will have a “large” impact on how it and the world would achieve carbon neutrality. Citing new figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Dr He says that China’s energy-related CO2 emissions reached 11.9bn tonnes last year, which “already exceeded” the previously discussed goal of 11bn tonnes in 2030 or a more aggressive goal of 10.5bn tonnes in 2025. (China Briefing has explained the new IEA figures.) Dr He adds: “If emissions from coal generation could not be reversed, the peak level will be even higher than what had been estimated. The cumulative additional emission will also require a much steep mitigation pathway to achieve carbon neutrality.” Speaking of China’s construction of new coal power plants, Dr He says that, although the new builds are usually “high-efficiency” plants, if they are not accompanied by the retirement of small inefficient plants and flexibility retrofit of existing plants, they “will make it harder for China to deliver its climate pledges”. On the same topic, Matt Gray expresses “particular concern” of China’s promotion of “clean and highly efficient utilisation of coal”, especially because the country has not laid out “any specific new targets for coal phaseout”. On whether “high-efficiency” coal-fired power units could help reduce CO2 emissions, Matt says that the “high-level” answer is “no”. A country “cannot just sub out the existing fleet with high-efficiency plants with the hope of being net-zero in the long term”, Gray notes. Furthermore, he says that building such plants “on the expectation that they will be supporting a net-zero policy goal over the long term is patently untrue”. He explains: “As a rule of thumb, an average coal-fired power plant has an emission intensity of about 900 grams of CO2 per kilowatt-hour (gCO2/kWh). To be net-zero aligned, based on the IEA’s net-zero emissions scenario, the carbon intensity will need to be around 140gCO2/kWh by 2030. The most efficient coal plants have a carbon intensity of 650gCO2/kWh.” However, Gray notes that there is “probably a role” for using “high-efficiency” coal plants for peaking services over the short term as China is building wind and solar farms at a “frantic pace” and this “variable” energy will “need to be supported by dispatchable technologies to balance the system”. “But in terms of running high-efficiency coal plants without CCS over the long term based on the presumption they are net-zero aligned, that is incorrect,” he concludes. Dr Xie explains what “clean and efficient utilisation of coal” means from her point of view. She says that the “clean” use of coal is not aimed at cutting CO2 emissions; instead, it refers to coal preparation and the reduction of the emissions of air pollutants – such as SO2, NOx and dust, according to China’s Law on the Prevention and Control of Air Pollution. (Coal preparation, also known as coal washing, is a process aimed at reducing sulphur and ash in coal and restricting the mining of high-sulphur or high-ash coal.) In terms of the “efficient” use of coal, Dr Xie notes that the move intends to reduce CO2 emissions by “further lowering” the coal consumption of a coal power unit when it generates electricity. According to China’s scheme on the “retrofit and upgrade” of coal power published last November, the coal consumption in 2020 of those coal-fired power plants whose capacity is six megawatts (MW) or higher stood at 305.5 grams of standard coal equivalent per kilowatt hour (gce/kWh). (The figure has declined by 3% compared to 2015, 8% compared to 2010 and 17% compared to 2005.) The scheme stipulates that newly built coal-fired power units should “in principle” be “ultra-supercritical units” whose coal consumption is lower than 270gce/kWh. It requires the average coal consumption of all coal-fired power plants nationwide to be lower than 300gce/kWh by 2025. Dr Xie points out that the scheme also emphasises retrofitting existing units to lower thermal coal use for power generation and to increase their capabilities of providing flexible peaking services to facilitate the accommodation of clean energy. For those units whose coal consumption is higher than 300gce/kWh and cannot be retrofitted or are deemed “backward”, they should be “shut down but not demolished” to be used as backup power sources, Dr Xie cites the scheme as saying. Despite their different views on the role of coal power and the impact of China’s coal drive on its climate goals, all experts interviewed by Carbon Brief agree on one thing: the recent coal push does not mean that China is rethinking or walking back on its climate commitments (although some experts caution that China’s pledges are not ambitious enough for meeting the 1.5C target under the Paris Agreement). Another consensus is that even if there are short-term adjustments, the Chinese government will pull all the stops out to hit its announced targets. As Yu Aiqun puts it, the Chinese government is “a master at planning”, adding that “one has to respect them for that”. She says: “Once a goal is set, no matter what the goal is, [the central government] will dissect it and assign relevant instructions down [to local governments]. These orders will then become political orders for local officials and failing to meet them will lead the officials to get dismissed.” (Carbon Brief’s article on the “nine key climate moments” for China has explained this governing style.) Dr Ryna Cui says that it is “quite usual that China commits to what is the bottom line and over-accomplish its targets”. She adds that such an approach “just requires more structured and integrated strategies to link near-term actions to long-term goals”. Dr Cui goes one step further and notes that, “more importantly, low-carbon transition is in line with China’s own vision to achieve a ‘Beautiful China’”. She says that the transition could provide “strong synergies with China’s broad development priorities and [lead] to sustained, high-quality growth that is in harmony with the environment and people’s well-being.” She concludes that “it is, therefore, in China’s own interests to race to net-zero emissions and bring a better quality of life to its people”. Sharelines from this story Analysis: What does China’s coal push mean for its climate goals? Comments View Comments (1 Comment) THE BRIEF Expert analysis directly to your inbox. Get a Daily or Weekly round-up of all the important articles and papers selected by Carbon Brief by email. By entering your email address you agree for your data to be handled in accordance with our Privacy Policy. Daily + Weekly Daily Briefing Weekly Briefing Published under a CC license. You are welcome to reproduce unadapted material in full for non-commercial use, credited ‘Carbon Brief’ with a link to the article. Please contact us for commercial use. 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footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190 April 2, 2022 15 hours ago, Ecocharger said: Read the articles above, coal is set to exceed all previous production levels. Hey now, do not point out the obvious. Might hurt their religious feelings. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,460 DL April 4, 2022 (edited) The release of strategic reserves will only serve to tighten oil markets and send prices up. No new production is involved in shifting reserves around. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/How-Bidens-Huge-Strategic-Oil-Release-Could-Backfire.html "...releasing whatever number of barrels from strategic reserves could only provide a very short relief at the pump. Then, it may make matters even worse. As one oil market commentator on Twitter said about the SPR release news, the White House will be selling these barrels at $100 and then may have to buy them at $150. Indeed, one thing that tends to get overlooked during turbulent times is that the strategic petroleum reserve of any country needs to be replenished. It’s not called strategic for laughs. And a 180-million-barrel reserve release will be quite a draw on the U.S. SPR, which currently stands at over 580 million barrels. If oil’s fundamentals remain the same, prices will not be lower when the time to replenish the SPR comes. This seems the most likely development. The EU, the UK, and the United States have stated sanctions against Russia will not be lifted even if Moscow strikes a peace deal with the Ukraine government. This means Russian oil will continue to be hard to come by for those dealing in dollars or euros." Edited April 4, 2022 by Ecocharger Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nsdp + 449 eh April 5, 2022 On 4/1/2022 at 7:55 PM, Ecocharger said: In other words, you are still clinging to a fossil fuel car for your daily needs....just what I suspected. Usually the most hysterical and fanatic opponents of fossil fuels are the ones who drive the old and dirty style internal combustion engines. Gas guzzlers. Thank you for making my point for me. You are not so smart Minimal use of ICE is far less polluting than cradle to grave construction of a new car. you are really bad about excising total energy/pollution costs. You are just like the idiots who did not add the average 6 gallons of diesel/ton of coal to transport from the mine to power plant by rail. Using a 3:2:1 crack split, Texas required the importation of $3 billion of crude oil to refine to diesel to power the coal trains in 2007. Generation cost $68.70/mwh. in 2007. In 2020 with 17.9% and 2% solar costs dropped to $20/mwh; savings $48.70/mwh or 5 cents/kwh at the customer meter. This does not have the 2007 numbers but you can see the significance of cleaner years on the amount of coal powerplant pollution in one grid ERCOT. 1 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nsdp + 449 eh April 5, 2022 On 4/2/2022 at 11:03 AM, footeab@yahoo.com said: Hey now, do not point out the obvious. Might hurt their religious feelings. The single largest factor in Chinese coal is a patch work grid with so many parallel path bottlenecks that China wasted enough wind and solar to power Beijing for an entire year each year.Why China’s wasting huge amounts of cleanly-produced electricity and how to fix it https://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2096955/why-chinas-wasting-huge-amounts-cleanly-produced Neither you nor Ecocharger know enough about operations of a grid or any kind fossil fuel generation or nuclear thermal pollution to know your posterior from a hole in the ground. Get a copy of Gray's Anatomy and a college freshman's test book on geology. Dig in and learn something. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM April 5, 2022 On 4/1/2022 at 6:55 PM, Ecocharger said: In other words, you are still clinging to a fossil fuel car for your daily needs....just what I suspected. Usually the most hysterical and fanatic opponents of fossil fuels are the ones who drive the old and dirty style internal combustion engines. Gas guzzlers. Thank you for making my point for me. Only reason I still have a 20 year old car is I need to replace it with an all wheel drive car for winter driving in snow and the Ford Escape PHEV does not come with all wheel drive yet. If they had one on the market today I would own one......I only drive vehicles with all wheel drive or 4wd... To old for pushing a stuck car ....My driveway is way too steep Got it ??? or do you need more details??? I like Fords ...... Always have bought Fords my entire life...I like supporting America. If Ford does not come out with an all wheel drive PHEV I will buy whatever meets my criteria. Yep I guess I am clinging on , not by love of an ICE vehicle by any means...just waiting for what I really need and built by Ford. I do not trade in cars every couple of years as I stated I do not drive too much. Does that bother you??? as you seem to be bothered by the fact that PHEV and EVs are on the road..My car will be replaced in the next few years. If Ford had a PHEV Suv 20 years ago...10 years ago or even today I would not own the one I have. On my end I use around 140 gallons of gas a year. Is that gas Guzzling??? I do not think it is .Yet I will replace it and go all electric as much as I can when driving ....how much gas do you go through every year???? my bet a lot more than 140 gallons. I bet you are paying dearly at the pump filling up your tanks...You keep living in denial that ICE vehicles are on the way out. Let me guess you will cling on to your ICE vehicles no matter what. You sound desperate by posting ....hysterical and fanatic opponents of fossil fuels??? you are babbling BS ....... Not sure what point you are trying to make....The transition from ICE to PHEVs and EVs is happening now....I will join the move in the next few years....Rome was not built in a day....... You seem to live in the past.....you seem to be trying to cling on to coal and ICE vehicles like it was a badge of honor. Lots of old grumpy old farts tend to do that. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM April 5, 2022 On 4/2/2022 at 10:03 AM, footeab@yahoo.com said: Hey now, do not point out the obvious. Might hurt their religious feelings. On 4/1/2022 at 6:59 PM, Ecocharger said: Read the articles above, coal is set to exceed all previous production levels. Yet coal has not.....You stated it already is....yet you post no facts..... What was 2021 compared to 2014????? It was less........ 2022 ???will have to wait for it to end , then you can post numbers, until then you can keep living in your pipe dream and keep smoking whatever you smoke. Can you post 2021 numbers ???? or are you living in denial ???? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM April 5, 2022 So Much For Coal’s Rebound - Plant Closures Come Roaring Back. It’s Time To Unlock A Just Transition. Energy Innovation: Policy and Technology Contributor We are a nonpartisan climate policy think tank helping policymakers make informed energy policy choices and accelerate clean energy by supporting the policies that most effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Silvio Marcacci Contributor Communications Director Mar 15, 2022,07:15am EDT Coal roared back to life in 2021, showing it will be part of our energy mix for years to come. Or, at least that’s what industry proponents say. Even though the Ukraine invasion has given coal executives a macabre opportunity to use war for self-promotion, 2021’s rebound was just a fleeting respite from coal’s continuing crash – plant closures are once again accelerating across the United States. FirstEnergy Completes Demolition of R.E. Burger Power Station. Image via FirstEnergy Flickr account. ... [+] FIRSTENERGY The fundamentals of coal’s decline are unequivocal: It simply costs more to dig up rocks, crush them into powder, and burn them for power than it costs to generate clean energy. This is especially true when environmental costs come into play – utilities can’t economically justify keeping plants open. Of course, the climate imperative of closing coal plants is clear – the pollution they belch into our atmosphere causes unprecedented warming, makes extreme weather impacts more devasting to our communities, and harms our health. But America’s transition from coal to clean is also a watershed moment in our history to generate good jobs for workers dependent upon the coal industry, stable tax income for the communities that hosted coal facilities, and clean economic growth for utilities. All three are possible with the right policies. Coal closures accelerating toward a “record plunge” U.S. coal power capacity peaked in 2011 at more than 317 gigawatts (GW), but steadily declined nearly 30% ever since, hitting a record high of 19.3 GW closed in 2015 and 13.1 GW closed in 2020. For context, coal’s share of U.S. electricity generation has plummeted from 50% a decade ago to less than 20% today. Then came coal’s 2021 rebound. Emissions rose as the U.S. economy came back to life from the COVID-induced recession, and coal-fired electricity generation grew 17% according to Rhodium Group analysis, increasing for the first time since 2014. Because plants ran more often than they had over the past decade, utilities closed just 4.6 GW of capacity last year. But the fundamental economic pressures pushing coal out of the U.S. electricity mix remain unchanged – 80% of existing coal plants across the country cost more to continue running than replacing them with new local wind or solar generation. Plant closure announcements have resumed their march to zero, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reporting 12.6 GW of coal capacity will close in 2022, representing 85% of all electric generation capacity retirements this year. Years in service for US coal-fired electric generating unit retirements and planned retirements, ... [+] U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION Coal’s outlook is even more grim over the next several years. S&P Global Market Intelligence reports utilities will close 51 GW of coal power between 2022 and 2027, followed by a “record plunge” in 2028 with more than 23 GW scheduled closures. Federal rules to keep coal ash and toxic metals out of drinking water will take effect that year – regardless of Supreme Court decisions on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions – and many utilities are not investing in compliance upgrades for plants that keep losing money. When utilities ignore coal’s economic and regulatory headwinds, they risk punitive consumer cost spikes. In West Virginia, where coal supplies 89% of statewide power but plants require hundreds of millions in mandatory upgrades, power prices have risen up to 122% in recent years. Paul Chodak, executive vice president of generation at American Electric Power, told S&P the necessary investments to keep plants online and comply with regulations “was not justified” compared to forecast market prices and alternatives like renewable energy. Other utilities seem to agree with him. Duke Energy, the country’s second-largest utility, recently announced it will close its 11 coal-fired power plants by 2035 – 13 years earlier than previously expected. Duke says it will replace that generation capacity by more than doubling its renewable energy portfolio to 24 GW by 2030. Georgia Power, one of America’s most coal-reliant utilities, similarly announced that it would close all 14 of its coal plants no later than 2035 and double its renewable energy generation with up to 6 GW of solar and wind. Smart policy can help coal-dependent utilities and communities transition The data also shows we can close coal plants and maintain a reliable power supply, while keeping prices low and creating jobs. A meta-analysis of 11 studies from universities, think tanks, and other organizations agree that closing all coal by 2030 and replacing that generation with clean energy is feasible. Power prices would stay roughly the same or even decline, and this transition would add 500,000 to 1 million new net jobs per year, while generating up to $1.5 trillion in new net investment. Andres Quiroz, an installer for Stellar Solar, secures a solar panel during installation at a home ... [+] © 2012 BLOOMBERG FINANCE LP However, smart policies are required to help utilities navigate the coal-to-clean shift, keep customer costs low, and ensure a just transition with new economic opportunities for the communities and workers who depend upon the coal industry. Utilities, their regulators, and state policymakers have multiple options to address early coal retirements and facilitate the financial transition. State legislatures can allow utilities to refinance outstanding debt on existing coal plants by authorizing ratepayer-backed bonds on uneconomic but as-yet undepreciated generation. “Securitization” as it is commonly known, was used extensively to retire stranded utility assets in the 1990s and 2000s, is already being used to help utilities retire coal plants in states like Michigan, and has been authorized in states like Colorado and New Mexico. State regulators can also allow utilities to change depreciation schedules so that they can free up capital for clean energy investments without forcing customers to continue paying off the “mortgage” on uneconomic coal plants. Utilities can then refinance that mortgage to reduce consumer rates by replacing equity with corporate debt in a “debt for equity” swap. If utilities are allowed to reinvest capital from uneconomic coal assets into solar or wind when the cost of building new renewables is cheaper than operating existing coal, they can swap “steel for fuel” on early coal plant retirements to add value for investors and customers and reduce operating costs. An emerging alternative policy option in this field is the “solar for coal swap” that could be particularly helpful for utilities to leverage private capital for solar investments that pay a better return on investment over time. This approach can help facilitate a just transition for coal-dependent workers and communities if done right. In Colorado, for instance, state regulators have approved utility plans to close coal plants and build replacement generation within the same local area, ensuring clean energy jobs and tax revenue help replace those lost to coal closures. A instillation of four wind generators operate alongside Interstate 25 ten miles south of Pueblo, ... [+] CORBIS VIA GETTY IMAGES Economic solutions must go beyond utilities retiring coal plants to ensure a just transition for the communities that host coal plants and mines, and the workers who depend on them. Policy roadmaps to create a fair economic transition include the Just Transition Fund’s Blueprint for Transition, the National Economic Transition Platform created by a coalition of organizations, and the Reimagine Appalachia coalition’s blueprint. Congress is also currently debating federal energy provisions including economic transition measures, which could build on President Obama’s Power Initiative for coal communities. America’s coal closures aren’t ending – it’s time to think about what’s next When even Peabody Coal, the world’s largest private coal company, announces it will invest in 5 GW of new solar and storage capacity, it’s time to admit America’s coal-to-clean transition is accelerating, whether fossil fuel industry proponents admit it or not. Global events and the oil and gas price volatility they create may slow that trajectory a bit, but only temporarily. Coal’s long-term downward spiral will continue as the world transitions to cleaner energy and the energy security, stability, and sustainability it provides. But it’s not enough to push coal plant closures. Utility regulators, state officials, and the utilities themselves must be actively engaged now in implementing the policies that can facilitate a shift away from coal that keeps utilities in business, avoids customer rate spikes, and ensures a just transition for the workers and communities who have economically depended on coal. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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