GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[specinho + 470]

On 2/20/2023 at 1:18 AM, turbguy said:

Did I missing some history? When was THAT?

That type of "business concept, ethic, and attitude" might arise from Native Americans.

 

You might have skimmed too quickly that you have missed what was discussed. Quote it here:

" ........... Old generation creates good quality of things that last. Profits come naturally when all they wish might be to share the beneficial inventions with others. They are usually the first users. Waste recyclable produced is minimal over half a century.

Modern generation eyeing profit first. The rest is cliche..... Many never know or use their products before they sell them in scale."

 

[notsonice + 1,255]

On 2/18/2023 at 11:10 AM, Ecocharger said:

Even during a slowdown, demand for crude oil and gasoline should remain strong. During the Great Depression (before your time?) demand for automobiles and gasoline increased.

Not every sector gets hurt during a recession.

Don't hold your breath on peak oil, it won't happen in our lifetime.

During the Great Depression (before your time?) demand for automobiles and gasoline increased.????

nope Auto production peaked in 1929 and did not exceed the 1929 level until 1940 ...

the great depression years are  late 1929 all the way through 1939.... with the depression starting late in 29.........

at no time during the great depression did auto production exceed the prdoduction before the depression started....

History repeating itself

Oil Peaked in 2019...100 million bpd......and you crowed all of last year how oil was booming and was at a new high.......

newsflash 2022 did not exceed 2019....  you can thank your pal Putin

2023....going nowhere fast with China in a horrible real estate recession EV sales are booming

2024....EV sales at 15 million globally ........the boom continues

2025    ICE vehicles on the road peak EV sales exceed 20 million the boom continues

2026  ICE vehicles on the road are in a slow decline EV sales exceed 25 million

2027  EV sales exceed 30 million......a real decline in oil production occurs (less than  95 million BPD and will decline for decades)

........Peak oil happened.......get used to it.....the days of your glorious Clunkers are numbered..........

Cash for Clunkers.........coming to trailer parks everywhere

Edited February 21, 2023 by notsonice

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

Here is where the Green transition has taken us, to disaster.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/UK-Businesses-Face-Mounting-Energy-Costs.html

"Some UK businesses face a 70-80% surge in energy bills.

In January, the government unveiled a new “Energy Bills Discount Scheme” for UK businesses, charities, and the public sector starting in April.

Businesses in the hospitality industry warned that energy bills could rise by 82% when the government’s support is significantly reduced in April."

Edited February 22, 2023 by Ecocharger

[notsonice + 1,255]

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

Here is where the Green transition has taken us, to disaster.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/UK-Businesses-Face-Mounting-Energy-Costs.html

"Some UK businesses face a 70-80% surge in energy bills.

In January, the government unveiled a new “Energy Bills Discount Scheme” for UK businesses, charities, and the public sector starting in April.

Businesses in the hospitality industry warned that energy bills could rise by 82% when the government’s support is significantly reduced in April."

70-80% surge in energy bills??

the surge is due to the price of Nat gas and your pal Putin

thanks again for pointing out that the rise in Fossil Fuel  prices are causing widespread inflation..........and pain

Renewables to the rescue...

Enjoy the transition, I am 

 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

15 hours ago, notsonice said:

70-80% surge in energy bills??

the surge is due to the price of Nat gas and your pal Putin

thanks again for pointing out that the rise in Fossil Fuel  prices are causing widespread inflation..........and pain

Renewables to the rescue...

Enjoy the transition, I am 

 

Yep the UK produced 41.5% of its electricity generation from NG in 2022 when prices went sky high thanks to the war in Ukraine.

Fortunately NG is now back to sensible levels and it was actually renewables that mitigated the cost rises.

35.3% powergen came from renewables with wind making up the vast majority of it at 29.3%

We need both NG and renewables as when the wind doesnt blow we need that gas, but equally it has to be at an economic rate. We have nowhere near enough battery storage, pumped storage or gravity storage at present to rely solely on renewables.

We can however draw on 8.4GW at any time from 8 interconnectors with other European countries and this works both ways when they are short on power, or when it makes economic sense to import.

[notsonice + 1,255]

6 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

Yep the UK produced 41.5% of its electricity generation from NG in 2022 when prices went sky high thanks to the war in Ukraine.

Fortunately NG is now back to sensible levels and it was actually renewables that mitigated the cost rises.

35.3% powergen came from renewables with wind making up the vast majority of it at 29.3%

We need both NG and renewables as when the wind doesnt blow we need that gas, but equally it has to be at an economic rate. We have nowhere near enough battery storage, pumped storage or gravity storage at present to rely solely on renewables.

We can however draw on 8.4GW at any time from 8 interconnectors with other European countries and this works both ways when they are short on power, or when it makes economic sense to import.

 

 

Gilkes reveals 900MW Scottish pumped storage plan

Earba project would be ‘largest in the UK’ in terms of energy stored

 17 February 2023  Hydro

 

Gilkes Energy has unveiled scoping plans for its 900MW Earba Pumped Storage Hydro Project in Scotland.

 

The scheme would store up to 33,000MWh of energy, making it “the largest such scheme in the UK”, according to the developer.

 

Proposals include using Loch a’ Bhealaich Leamhain as the upper reservoir and Lochan na h-Earba as the lower reservoir, with the two connected by a 3km-long tunnel.

Turbines would be located in a powerhouse on the shore of Loch Earba, generating electricity at times of demand or pumping water for storage when there is a grid surplus.

 

If an application is consented, construction of the project is expected to take three to four years, with a workforce of 300-400 people on site during this period.

 

Gilkes Energy managing director Carl Crompton said: “After a number of years work, we are delighted to launch the Earba Pumped Storage Hydro 'PSH' project.

 

“Energy storage allows energy produced during times of excess generation (mainly wind and solar) to be stored and released later when there is a deficit of renewable energy. PSH projects are in effect very big batteries and the technology behind these projects is both very mature and robust, but also extremely cost competitive.

 

“The Earba project is in an excellent location with the geography in the area providing some natural water storage, and allowing the project to be sensitively blended into the landscape.

 

“By developing and investing in PSH capacity, we are helping more renewables to be added to the UK system, displacing expensive and carbon-emitting gas generation and ultimately speeding up the transition to a clean, carbon-free economy.”

 

Public consultations on the plans are due to be held locally later this month.

[TailingsPond + 1,008]

On 2/21/2023 at 1:50 AM, specinho said:

a) E = hc/x ( x is lamda, wavelength of targeted light).

Why is this formula not used, for a direct energy calculation with known wavelength or average of them, and  proven constants?

b) energy required to remove electron from the outer shell of silicone. How much energy, for how much electron, for how long? How do they be recharged?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photoelectric_effect

Read what is provided.

I already told you about the work function and the essentially uselessness of various wavelengths.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ionization_energy

Edited February 22, 2023 by TailingsPond

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

On 2/21/2023 at 5:40 AM, notsonice said:

During the Great Depression (before your time?) demand for automobiles and gasoline increased.????

nope Auto production peaked in 1929 and did not exceed the 1929 level until 1940 ...

the great depression years are  late 1929 all the way through 1939.... with the depression starting late in 29.........

at no time during the great depression did auto production exceed the prdoduction before the depression started....

History repeating itself

Oil Peaked in 2019...100 million bpd......and you crowed all of last year how oil was booming and was at a new high.......

newsflash 2022 did not exceed 2019....  you can thank your pal Putin

2023....going nowhere fast with China in a horrible real estate recession EV sales are booming

2024....EV sales at 15 million globally ........the boom continues

2025    ICE vehicles on the road peak EV sales exceed 20 million the boom continues

2026  ICE vehicles on the road are in a slow decline EV sales exceed 25 million

2027  EV sales exceed 30 million......a real decline in oil production occurs (less than  95 million BPD and will decline for decades)

........Peak oil happened.......get used to it.....the days of your glorious Clunkers are numbered..........

Cash for Clunkers.........coming to trailer parks everywhere

You need new spectacles, old man.

Auto production increased from 1932 to 1936, which was the height of the Depression.

You seem to have trouble with that simple fact.

Oil demand today remains robust, the highest level ever.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Global-Oil-Demand-Hit-Record-High-In-December.html

"In December, global crude oil demand jumped to 1.3 million barrels per day, the highest level on record.

While global demand soared in December, production fell to a five-month low due to lower supply from the U.S. and UK.

The growth in demand in December was mainly driven by higher consumption in Japan, Indonesia, and South Korea."

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

8 hours ago, notsonice said:

 

 

Gilkes reveals 900MW Scottish pumped storage plan

Earba project would be ‘largest in the UK’ in terms of energy stored

 17 February 2023  Hydro

 

Gilkes Energy has unveiled scoping plans for its 900MW Earba Pumped Storage Hydro Project in Scotland.

 

The scheme would store up to 33,000MWh of energy, making it “the largest such scheme in the UK”, according to the developer.

 

Proposals include using Loch a’ Bhealaich Leamhain as the upper reservoir and Lochan na h-Earba as the lower reservoir, with the two connected by a 3km-long tunnel.

Turbines would be located in a powerhouse on the shore of Loch Earba, generating electricity at times of demand or pumping water for storage when there is a grid surplus.

 

If an application is consented, construction of the project is expected to take three to four years, with a workforce of 300-400 people on site during this period.

 

Gilkes Energy managing director Carl Crompton said: “After a number of years work, we are delighted to launch the Earba Pumped Storage Hydro 'PSH' project.

 

“Energy storage allows energy produced during times of excess generation (mainly wind and solar) to be stored and released later when there is a deficit of renewable energy. PSH projects are in effect very big batteries and the technology behind these projects is both very mature and robust, but also extremely cost competitive.

 

“The Earba project is in an excellent location with the geography in the area providing some natural water storage, and allowing the project to be sensitively blended into the landscape.

 

“By developing and investing in PSH capacity, we are helping more renewables to be added to the UK system, displacing expensive and carbon-emitting gas generation and ultimately speeding up the transition to a clean, carbon-free economy.”

 

Public consultations on the plans are due to be held locally later this month.

Sure, you can grow oranges in the Arctic, just create some greenhouses. But is that the most cost-efficient method of growing oranges? Would the price of oranges on the store shelf stay low, or would they skyrocket? 

Here is the answer,

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/UK-Businesses-Face-Mounting-Energy-Costs.html

"Some UK businesses face a 70-80% surge in energy bills.

In January, the government unveiled a new “Energy Bills Discount Scheme” for UK businesses, charities, and the public sector starting in April.

Businesses in the hospitality industry warned that energy bills could rise by 82% when the government’s support is significantly reduced in April."

 

Edited February 22, 2023 by Ecocharger

[turbguy + 1,544]

On 2/21/2023 at 1:50 AM, specinho said:

Pardon me, i do not know how to count with formulas in physics. 'o' '-'  Started late, barely passed. >.<

But when you calculate flux of energy from the sun over a surface, something would probably be not at the point.

Wondering these:

a) E = hc/x ( x is lamda, wavelength of targeted light).

Why is this formula not used, for a direct energy calculation with known wavelength or average of them, and  proven constants?

b) energy required to remove electron from the outer shell of silicone. How much energy, for how much electron, for how long? How do they be recharged?

As an outsider, I do not know the working details on how a panel works. From collecting heat to convert it to electricity, if surface area is not a main factor involved,  could it be more environmentally friendly?

I said power flux "as measured" above the atmosphere, not calculated.  That said, it should be possible to calculate the integral of the energy of all incident wavelengths across the full thermal spectrum, as long as the intensity of each wavelength is carefully measured.  You still gotta measure something.

BTW,  the cross section of the Earth is the area of a circle that is just about 12,742 kilometers on average.

No physics required.

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

14 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Sure, you can grow oranges in the Arctic, just create some greenhouses. But is that the most cost-efficient method of growing oranges? Would the price of oranges on the store shelf stay low, or would they skyrocket? 

Here is the answer,

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/UK-Businesses-Face-Mounting-Energy-Costs.html

"Some UK businesses face a 70-80% surge in energy bills.

In January, the government unveiled a new “Energy Bills Discount Scheme” for UK businesses, charities, and the public sector starting in April.

Businesses in the hospitality industry warned that energy bills could rise by 82% when the government’s support is significantly reduced in April."

 

Eco as stated this is down to the exorbitant gas prices. Gas prices to consumers both domestic and industrial remain astronomic even though the NG gas price has plummeted. The lag in that reduction will last until well into spring and then plummet.

What youre writing is testament to how expensive NG is currently NOT renewables. My business usually spends £10K for gas heating in December and this rose to £70K for just for 1 month and that was a 3 week working month! If the UK solely relied on NG the country would now be bankrupt.

The report you link states this "Energy-intensive industries have seen their energy costs soar over the past year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine sparked a rally in energy commodities and power prices." 

That is NG price hikes! What youre saying is dont rely on FF as they are too expensive! Youre arguing against your own beliefs.

[specinho + 470]

13 hours ago, turbguy said:

I said power flux "as measured" above the atmosphere, not calculated.  That said, it should be possible to calculate the integral of the energy of all incident wavelengths across the full thermal spectrum, as long as the intensity of each wavelength is carefully measured.  You still gotta measure something.

BTW,  the cross section of the Earth is the area of a circle that is just about 12,742 kilometers on average.

No physics required.

Quote:"..... power flux from the sun, as measured above the atmosphere, is on the order of 1.7 kw/m2."

By measuring in meter square, guess you mean measure directly with voltmeter, or something like that, across a square of 1 m x 1 m?

It reminds me of a discussion about how we estimate population of an animal within an area using samples of grid boxes....... And possible discrepancy.....

May be your measuring method is different?

[specinho + 470]

20 hours ago, TailingsPond said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photoelectric_effect

Read what is provided.

I already told you about the work function and the essentially uselessness of various wavelengths.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ionization_energy

Old method from link to  photoelectric used

1. E = hv, v represents frequency of light.

- not sure if this Frequency means

a) how frequent it is detected (intensity) or

b) at what  wavelength it is detected.....

2. Electropositive metal as conductor. They tested various elements with possibly disatisfactory outcomes.

- one noteworthy usage of this concept is in aerospace industry. The side that facing the sun would be positively charged.........

* No area is mentioned required by old experiments but types of conductor, intensity of light, frequency etc. 

* always hold a belief that pioneer generation rarely wrong. The reason is simply because they had all the time they needed to investigate whatever intrigued them back then. No money, fame, unhealthy competition or other modern factors that could distract the attention, divert the intention and finding.

They faced problem of easy oxidation over pure metal used. They hadn't gotten much alloy that is more resistant to oxidation back then. We could probably continue from here.... with signal amplifier?

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

8 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Eco as stated this is down to the exorbitant gas prices. Gas prices to consumers both domestic and industrial remain astronomic even though the NG gas price has plummeted. The lag in that reduction will last until well into spring and then plummet.

What youre writing is testament to how expensive NG is currently NOT renewables. My business usually spends £10K for gas heating in December and this rose to £70K for just for 1 month and that was a 3 week working month! If the UK solely relied on NG the country would now be bankrupt.

The report you link states this "Energy-intensive industries have seen their energy costs soar over the past year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine sparked a rally in energy commodities and power prices." 

That is NG price hikes! What youre saying is dont rely on FF as they are too expensive! Youre arguing against your own beliefs.

No, the basic point is simple. If energy prices soar due to the Green transition, then prices of  commodities and final products will also increase and standards of living will plummet. The average European household also has energy bills. 

 

When the government subsidies bankrupt the nations, then household energy prices will soar beyond affordability.

That is all down to the Green nonsense.

[notsonice + 1,255]

4 hours ago, specinho said:

Old method from link to  photoelectric used

1. E = hv, v represents frequency of light.

- not sure if this Frequency means

a) how frequent it is detected (intensity) or

b) at what  wavelength it is detected.....

2. Electropositive metal as conductor. They tested various elements with possibly disatisfactory outcomes.

- one noteworthy usage of this concept is in aerospace industry. The side that facing the sun would be positively charged.........

* No area is mentioned required by old experiments but types of conductor, intensity of light, frequency etc. 

* always hold a belief that pioneer generation rarely wrong. The reason is simply because they had all the time they needed to investigate whatever intrigued them back then. No money, fame, unhealthy competition or other modern factors that could distract the attention, divert the intention and finding.

They faced problem of easy oxidation over pure metal used. They hadn't gotten much alloy that is more resistant to oxidation back then. We could probably continue from here.... with signal amplifier?

 

Pyranometer

[Polyphia + 83]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies-Spiked-To-Record-High-In-2022.html

[turbguy + 1,544]

8 hours ago, specinho said:

Quote:"..... power flux from the sun, as measured above the atmosphere, is on the order of 1.7 kw/m2."

By measuring in meter square, guess you mean measure directly with voltmeter, or something like that, across a square of 1 m x 1 m?

It reminds me of a discussion about how we estimate population of an animal within an area using samples of grid boxes....... And possible discrepancy.....

May be your measuring method is different?

From satellite.  Via NASA (and others)

[bloodman33 + 22]

This thread for the most part is an echo chamber of right wing stupidity.   The global warming debate is settled science.  The oil industry is killing the planet.  At this point, I am an old fart.  I don't really care either way.  Nobody is going to be influenced by the junk science by you people.  Are you getting paid to post by the industry or are you a bunch of old guys that have no life?  Me, I am an old guy that has not life that is trolling this thread.  The EV debate is still on though.  There are many issues with EV's.   They will not be the solution.  Public transportation is the solution.   

I am now officially rich, having made a lot of money betting on oil industry stocks. It was dumb luck.  I could never have predicted Putin would go to war.  I was betting on Iran testing the bomb. 

Changing the topic I dumped my oil stocks 3 months ago and have tanker stocks: TNK, STNG, SFL DST plus refineries VLO and CVI.   The tanker stocks really made me rich.  The build in crude in the US is because refineries have taken a lot of their refineries offline for maintenance.  That is why gas stocks have decreased the last two weeks. That is also why the price of oil has not really gone down much with the builds. Maybe i can squeeze out another 400K in my positions but who knows.  It all depends on the war.  

If you look at CVI, take note the real money is the special dividends.  it paid 5.50 in total dividends in 2022.  Diesel stocks are down 12% compared to the 5 year average. CVI sells mostly to farm coops. They also make Nitrogen and 'might' spin off the business.  Yes I am pumping it here LOL. Now watch it go down 10%. 

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

59 minutes ago, bloodman33 said:

This thread for the most part is an echo chamber of right wing stupidity.   The global warming debate is settled science.  The oil industry is killing the planet.  At this point, I am an old fart.  I don't really care either way.  Nobody is going to be influenced by the junk science by you people.  Are you getting paid to post by the industry or are you a bunch of old guys that have no life?  Me, I am an old guy that has not life that is trolling this thread.  The EV debate is still on though.  There are many issues with EV's.   They will not be the solution.  Public transportation is the solution.   

I am now officially rich, having made a lot of money betting on oil industry stocks. It was dumb luck.  I could never have predicted Putin would go to war.  I was betting on Iran testing the bomb. 

Changing the topic I dumped my oil stocks 3 months ago and have tanker stocks: TNK, STNG, SFL DST plus refineries VLO and CVI.   The tanker stocks really made me rich.  The build in crude in the US is because refineries have taken a lot of their refineries offline for maintenance.  That is why gas stocks have decreased the last two weeks. That is also why the price of oil has not really gone down much with the builds. Maybe i can squeeze out another 400K in my positions but who knows.  It all depends on the war.  

If you look at CVI, take note the real money is the special dividends.  it paid 5.50 in total dividends in 2022.  Diesel stocks are down 12% compared to the 5 year average. CVI sells mostly to farm coops. They also make Nitrogen and 'might' spin off the business.  Yes I am pumping it here LOL. Now watch it go down 10%. 

The global warming debate is indeed settled science...and CO2 is not a factor in global warming. The science is clear on that.

Edited February 24, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

8 hours ago, Polyphia said:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies-Spiked-To-Record-High-In-2022.html

Good article, these enormous subsidies are not sustainable and when they are abandoned will cause a catastrophe for average households. The Greenies are responsible for this state of affairs.

" According to the IEA, global spending on fossil fuel subsidies surpassed $1 trillion last year as governments across the globe sought to mitigate the impact of soaring commodity prices.

- As such, spending on fossil fuel subsidies was more than double the total global investment in renewable energy sources, with the most marked increase coming from the power sector.

- Arguably the most price-impacted region amidst the Russia-Ukraine war, the European Union alone spent $349 billion to reduce consumer energy bills.

- Emerging markets and developing economies spent a total of $114 billion on fossil fuel subsidies, highlighting the fact that advanced economies have played an oversized role in these expenditures."

 

[turbguy + 1,544]

At times, it appears there are Russian trolls posting here.

Much of science is never settled. 

Only mathematics is settled.  That is because math is a total construct of humanity.

And finance (including global casinos), in the end, is pure math.

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by turbguy

[bloodman33 + 22]

The mathematical area of logic clearly shows that the foundations of mathematics is based on a house of cards. Mathematics is only settled provided you do not look hard at it.   Who are the Russian Trolls?  Lets getum!

[turbguy + 1,544]

7 minutes ago, bloodman33 said:

Who are the Russian Trolls?  Lets getum!

Support for right (and left) wing propositions. For instance, page 8:

https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICA_2017_01.pdf

"RT broadcasts support for other Russian interests in areas such as foreign and energy policy.

RT runs anti-fracking programming, highlighting environmental issues and the impacts on public health. This is likely reflective of the Russian Government's concern about the impact of fracking and US natural gas production on the global energy market and the potential challenges to Gazprom's profitability".

Since when does the Kremlin give much consideration to public health of foreigners?

Edited February 24, 2023 by turbguy

[Ron Wagner + 710]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-billions-wind-solar-projects-185322374.html

 

The U.S. Has Billions for Wind and Solar Projects. Good Luck Plugging Them In.

 

1.2k

Brad Plumer

Thu, February 23, 2023 at 12:53 PM CST

 

 

 

President Joe Biden holds up a wind turbine size comparison chart during a meeting on offshore wind farms in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, June 23, 2022. (Kenny Holston/The New York Times)

Plans to install 3,000 acres of solar panels in Kentucky and Virginia are delayed for years. Wind farms in Minnesota and North Dakota have been abruptly canceled. And programs to encourage Massachusetts and Maine residents to adopt solar power are faltering.

The energy transition poised for takeoff in the United States amid record investment in wind, solar and other low-carbon technologies is facing a serious obstacle: The volume of projects has overwhelmed the nation’s antiquated systems to connect new sources of electricity to homes and businesses.

So many projects are trying to squeeze through the approval process that delays can drag on for years, leaving some developers to throw up their hands and walk away.

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More than 8,100 energy projects — the vast majority of them wind, solar and batteries — were waiting for permission to connect to electric grids at the end of 2021, up from 5,600 the year before, jamming the system known as interconnection.

That’s the process by which electricity generated by wind turbines or solar arrays is added to the grid — the network of power lines and transformers that moves electricity from the spot where it is created to cities and factories. There is no single grid; the United States has dozens of electric networks, each overseen by a different authority.

PJM Interconnection, which operates the nation’s largest regional grid, stretching from Illinois to New Jersey, has been so inundated by connection requests that last year it announced a freeze on new applications until 2026 so that it can work through a backlog of thousands of proposals, mostly for renewable energy.

It now takes roughly four years, on average, for developers to get approval, double the time it took a decade ago.

And when companies finally get their projects reviewed, they often face another hurdle: The local grid is at capacity, and they are required to spend much more than they planned for new transmission lines and other upgrades.

Many give up. Fewer than one-fifth of solar and wind proposals actually make it through the so-called interconnection queue, according to research from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

“From our perspective, the interconnection process has become the No. 1 project killer,” said Piper Miller, vice president of market development at Pine Gate Renewables, a major solar power and battery developer.

After years of breakneck growth, large-scale solar, wind and battery installations in the United States fell 16% in 2022, according to the American Clean Power Association, a trade group. It blamed supply chain problems but also lengthy delays connecting projects to the grid.

Electricity production generates roughly one-quarter of the greenhouse gases produced by the United States; cleaning it up is key to President Joe Biden’s plan to fight global warming. The landmark climate bill he signed last year provides $370 billion in subsidies to help make low-carbon energy technologies — like wind, solar, nuclear or batteries — cheaper than fossil fuels.

But the law does little to address many practical barriers to building clean-energy projects, such as permitting holdups, local opposition or transmission constraints. Unless those obstacles get resolved, experts say, there’s a risk that billions in federal subsidies won’t translate into the deep emissions cuts envisioned by lawmakers.

“It doesn’t matter how cheap the clean energy is,” said Spencer Nelson, managing director of research at ClearPath Foundation, an energy-focused nonprofit. “If developers can’t get through the interconnection process quickly enough and get enough steel in the ground, we won’t hit our climate change goals.”

Waiting in Line for Years

In the largest grids, such as those in the Midwest or Mid-Atlantic, a regional operator manages the byzantine flow of electricity from hundreds of different power plants through thousands of miles of transmission lines and into millions of homes.

Before a developer can build a power plant, the local grid operator must make sure the project won’t cause disruptions; if, for instance, existing power lines get more electricity than they can handle, they could overheat and fail. After conducting a detailed study, the grid operator might require upgrades, such as a line connecting the new plant to a nearby substation. The developer usually bears this cost. Then the operator moves on to study the next project in the queue.

This process was fairly routine when energy companies were building a few large coal or gas plants each year. But it has broken down as the number of wind, solar and battery projects has risen sharply over the past decade, driven by falling costs, state clean-energy mandates and, now, hefty federal subsidies.

“The biggest challenge is just the sheer volume of projects,” said Ken Seiler, who leads system planning at PJM Interconnection. “There are only so many power engineers out there who can do the sophisticated studies we need to do to ensure the system stays reliable, and everyone else is trying to hire them, too.”

PJM, the grid operator, now has 2,700 energy projects under study — mostly wind, solar and batteries — a number that has tripled in just three years. Wait times can now reach four years or more, which prompted PJM last year to pause new reviews and overhaul its processes.

Delays can upend the business models of renewable energy developers. As time ticks by, rising materials costs can erode a project’s viability. Options to buy land expire. Potential customers lose interest.

Two years ago, Silicon Ranch, a solar power developer, applied to PJM for permission to connect three 100-megawatt solar projects in Kentucky and Virginia, enough to power tens of thousands of homes. The company, which often pairs its solar arrays with sheep grazing, had negotiated purchase options with local landowners for thousands of acres of farmland.

Today, that land is sitting empty. Silicon Ranch hasn’t received feedback from PJM and now estimates it may not be able to bring those solar farms online until 2028 or 2029. That creates headaches: The company may have to decide whether to buy the land before it even knows whether its solar arrays will be approved.

“It’s frustrating,” said Reagan Farr, the CEO of Silicon Ranch. “We always talk about how important it is for our industry to establish trust and credibility with local communities. But if you come in and say you’re going to invest, and then nothing happens for years, it’s not an optimal situation.”

PJM soon plans to speed up its queues — for instance, by studying projects in clusters rather than one at a time — but needs to clear its backlog first.

‘Imagine if We Paid for Highways This Way’

A potentially bigger problem for solar and wind is that, in many places around the country, the local grid is clogged, unable to absorb more power.

That means if a developer wants to build a new wind farm, it might have to pay not just for a simple connecting line but also for deeper grid upgrades elsewhere. One planned wind farm in North Dakota, for example, was asked to pay for multimillion-dollar upgrades to transmission lines hundreds of miles away in Nebraska and Missouri.

These costs can be unpredictable. In 2018, EDP North America, a renewable energy developer, proposed a 100-megwatt wind farm in southwestern Minnesota, estimating it would have to spend $10 million connecting to the grid. But after the grid operator completed its analysis, EDP learned the upgrades would cost $80 million. It canceled the project.

That creates a new problem: When a proposed energy project drops out of the queue, the grid operator often has to redo studies for other pending projects and shift costs to other developers, which can trigger more cancellations and delays.

It also creates perverse incentives, experts said. Some developers will submit multiple proposals for wind and solar farms at different locations without intending to build them all. Instead, they hope that one of their proposals will come after another developer who has to pay for major network upgrades. The rise of this sort of speculative bidding has further jammed up the queue.

“Imagine if we paid for highways this way,” said Rob Gramlich, president of the consulting group Grid Strategies. “If a highway is fully congested, the next car that gets on has to pay for a whole lane expansion. When that driver sees the bill, they drop off. Or, if they do pay for it themselves, everyone else gets to use that infrastructure. It doesn’t make any sense.”

A better approach, Gramlich said, would be for grid operators to plan transmission upgrades that are broadly beneficial and spread the costs among a wider set of energy providers and users, rather than having individual developers fix the grid bit by bit, through a chaotic process.

There is precedent for that idea. In the 2000s, Texas officials saw that existing power lines wouldn’t be able to handle the growing number of wind turbines being built in the blustery plains of West Texas and planned billions of dollars in upgrades. Texas now leads the nation in wind power. Similarly, MISO, a grid spanning 15 states in the Midwest, recently approved $10.3 billion in new power lines, partly because officials could see that many of its states had set ambitious renewable energy goals and would need more transmission.

But this sort of proactive planning is rare, since utilities, state officials and businesses often argue fiercely over whether new lines are necessary — and who should bear the cost.

“The hardest part isn’t the engineering; it’s figuring out who’s going to pay for it,” said Aubrey Johnson, vice president of system planning at MISO.

Climate Goals at Risk

As grid delays pile up, regulators have taken notice. Last year, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission proposed two major reforms to streamline interconnection queues and encourage grid operators to do more long-term planning.

The fate of these rules is unclear, however. In December, Richard Glick, the former regulatory commission chair who spearheaded both reforms, stepped down after clashing with Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., over unrelated policies around natural gas pipelines. The commission is now split between two Democrats and two Republicans; any new reforms need majority approval.

If the United States can’t fix its grid problems, it could struggle to tackle climate change. Researchers at the Princeton-led REPEAT project recently estimated that new federal subsidies for clean energy could cut electricity emissions in half by 2030. But that assumes transmission capacity expands twice as fast over the next decade. If that doesn’t happen, the researchers found, emissions could actually increase as solar and wind get stymied and existing gas and coal plants run more often to power electric cars.

Massachusetts and Maine offer a warning, said David Gahl, executive director of the Solar and Storage Industries Institute. In both states, lawmakers offered hefty incentives for small-scale solar installations. Investors poured money in, but within months, grid managers were overwhelmed, delaying hundreds of projects.

“There’s a lesson there,” Gahl said. “You can pass big, ambitious climate laws, but if you don’t pay attention to details like interconnection rules, you can quickly run into trouble.”

© 2023 The New York Times Company

 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

15 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

No, the basic point is simple. If energy prices soar due to the Green transition, then prices of  commodities and final products will also increase and standards of living will plummet. The average European household also has energy bills. 

 

When the government subsidies bankrupt the nations, then household energy prices will soar beyond affordability.

That is all down to the Green nonsense.

Yes Eco but they didnt, energy prices soared because of the huge increase in NG prices due to the war in Ukraine!

Even the report you linked stated this, this isnt about any green revolution hiking energy costs. Re-read your own article you posted as it clearly states ""Energy-intensive industries have seen their energy costs soar over the past year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine sparked a rally in energy commodities and power prices." " which is all about NG prices as you already know!

Edited February 24, 2023 by Rob Plant