Jay McKinsey + 1,490 September 7, 2023 4 hours ago, Ecocharger said: World wide Coal is all-time high demand. Not for long. The US decline off sets much of any global growth and in the short term China's economy is about to collapse which will take out much demand and in the longer term their population is collapsing which will take out much more demand. China has no immigration and the birth rate is now 1.1 per woman in her life and dropping. So half of replacement which is 2.1. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
turbguy + 1,544 September 7, 2023 12 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said: Not for long. The US decline off sets much of any global growth and in the short term China's economy is about to collapse which will take out much demand and in the longer term their population is collapsing which will take out much more demand. China has no immigration and the birth rate is now 1.1 per woman in her life and dropping. So half of replacement which is 2.1. Even if China were to loosen immigration regs (they do permit some), foreigners are not permitted to own property. They gotta automate to a bigger degree. AI perhaps? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 September 7, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, turbguy said: Even if China were to loosen immigration regs (they do permit some), foreigners are not permitted to own property. They gotta automate to a bigger degree. AI perhaps? China's youth unemployment is so high they stopped reporting it. No one is going to immigrate if there are no jobs to be had. Out of 1.3 billion people about 10,000 are immigrants. In 2016, China issued 1,576 permanent residency cards. This was more than double what it had issued the previous year, but still roughly 750 times lower than the United States’ 1.2 million at the time.[1] By 2017, the number of foreigners holding Chinese Permanent Residence finally passed the 10,000 mark.[2] I'm sure they will do all they can with AI but the boom years are over.: Foreign companies are shifting investment out of China as ... AP News https://apnews.com › article › china-foreign-companie... Jun 20, 2023 — BEIJING (AP) — Foreign companies are shifting investments and their Asian headquarters out of China as confidence plunges following the ... Manufacturing Moving Out Of China For Friendlier Shores Forbes https://www.forbes.com › betsyatkins › 2023/08/07 Aug 7, 2023 — Dell: Dell has announced that it will be moving some of its manufacturing out of China to Vietnam and Mexico to reduce costs and improve .. Analysis: Yuan loses core support as firms leave China Reuters https://www.reuters.com › markets › currencies › yuan-l... Aug 7, 2023 — Investors and analysts say the decline is the result of firms' nervousness over the direction of competitive and political friction between ... Edited September 7, 2023 by Jay McKinsey Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AlBub + 14 AB September 7, 2023 9 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said: Coal use in the US reached new low in Q2: Solar + Wind produced 173K megawatt hours outperforming coal which produced 141K megawatt hours. Funny how in the early afternoon on a hot day or at sunset when the wind dies down, coal and gas just keep right on generating. It's a darn good thing we have solar to pick up the slack on the nights when the wind doesn't blow. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
turbguy + 1,544 September 7, 2023 (edited) 38 minutes ago, AlBub said: Funny how in the early afternoon on a hot day or at sunset when the wind dies down, coal and gas just keep right on generating. It's a darn good thing we have solar to pick up the slack on the nights when the wind doesn't blow. Looks like wind and solar works for Texas, 24 hrs per day...requiring zero fuel, almost zero water, almost zero operational waste, and "less heads per MWh, too! Edited September 7, 2023 by turbguy 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL September 7, 2023 2 hours ago, turbguy said: Let us try this again, shall we? Here is my ORIGINAL post that appears to have started this response chain, followed by your response, and some further questions from me: Friday at 10:50 PM ..but there IS smart money in insurance underwriting... Florida residents have increasingly turned to Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, a public entity established by the Florida government (even more government-controlled than California's) as the state’s so-called “insurer of last resort” for people unable to find affordable rates from private insurers. For more and more residents, though, Citizens is becoming the first and only option, especially for those with coastal homes at particular risk from hurricanes. In 2019, Citizens had about 400,000 home insurance policies on its books; today, it has more than 1.3 million, about twice as many as the state’s next-largest insurer. If a hurricane(s) destroy(s) too many homes covered by Citizens policies and the "insurer" faces bigger claims than it can afford to pay, the public company won’t go belly up. Instead, such an event will trigger what is known as an "assessment", wherein state law mandates that Citizens imposes fees on private insurance policies across the state in order to cover its payouts. And it’s not just property insurance-policy holders that may have to pull out the checkbook. If you live in Florida and have auto insurance, but can’t afford to own a home, you can still be stuck contributing to funds that pay for homeowners to rebuild after a big storm. Your response: Monday at 09:19 PM Private insurance companies have already withdrawn from the California business insurance market, and it has nothing to do with climate events. The new California legal changes making it illegal to interfere with robberies and pillaging while in progress have frightened the insurance business away from California. You could face legal charges for attempting to prevent crimes. You cannot have your cake and eat it too, if the laws protecting property are vilified and trampled by the state deadhead liberals, the flight of business insurance will force companies to leave California. California may become an economic dead zone for travelers and those seeking a better life. Questions: I provided at least 5 major companies that currently offer Business Insurance in California. As of today, September 6, 2023, no US state provides business insurance as a provider of last resort. What does any “pullout of Business Insurance" have to do with Homeowners Insurance being pulled out, and requiring back-up by the GOVERNMENT as an insurer of last resort? I must assume you realize that Homeowners Insurance and Business Insurance are two different products, with two different customer bases, NO? No, read back. I posted before that about the changes in California law. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL September 7, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said: Not for long. The US decline off sets much of any global growth and in the short term China's economy is about to collapse which will take out much demand and in the longer term their population is collapsing which will take out much more demand. China has no immigration and the birth rate is now 1.1 per woman in her life and dropping. So half of replacement which is 2.1. I trust your prognostications like I trust your evaluation of the Climate Panic. Chinese demand for fossil fuels remains potent and will increase. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Case-For-Chinas-Future-Oil-Demand.html "S&P Global Insight expects China’s demand for crude oil to add 6.1% this year compared with 2022. This translates into close to 1 million bpd in additional demand this year. The rate of growth is seen falling sharply to 3.5% next year as the post-pandemic situation stabilizes. S&P Global is not the only forecaster expecting strong oil demand growth from China. Virtually every forecaster agrees that the country is the largest driver of oil demand in the world right now, whatever its PMI and consumer sentiment data say." Edited September 7, 2023 by Ecocharger Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
turbguy + 1,544 September 7, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Ecocharger said: No, read back. I posted before that about the changes in California law. My post has to do with Climate Change perception in the Homeowners isurance market, as an emphasis of the measurable effect of increasingly higher claims, forcing states to provide back-up coverage for that market. Totally unrelated to changes in criminal law. Fully related to the measurable effects of Climate Change. You responded with Business Insurance concerns (for some weird reason). Edited September 7, 2023 by turbguy Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ron Wagner + 709 September 7, 2023 On 9/5/2023 at 6:37 AM, Jeroen Goudswaard said: 1/3 of CO2 in the atmosphere has been put there by mankind in the last 200 years. We do need to plant more trees and use them for lumber, food, fuel etc. So what? Do you see ocean levels rising much in the last 200 years? No. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL September 7, 2023 (edited) 3 minutes ago, turbguy said: My post has to do with Climate Change perception in the Homeowners isurance market, as an emphasis of the measurable effect of increasingly higher claims, forcing states to provide back-up coverage for that market. Totally unrelated to changes in criminal law. Fully related to the measurable effects of Climate Change. You responded with Business Insurance concerns (for some weird reason). No, you are wrong again, I raised the issue of the insurability of California store front business due to the deterioration in California theft laws. Go back and read the sequence. Edited September 7, 2023 by Ecocharger 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ron Wagner + 709 September 7, 2023 On 9/5/2023 at 2:31 AM, notsonice said: Ron...Shove off .........I do not need someone such as yourself telling me how to think...... You are one of the worst for pushing bs propaganda again shove off......I despise people who start telling people how to think You must really hate yourself then! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
turbguy + 1,544 September 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ecocharger said: No, you are wrong again, I raised the issue of the insurability of California store front business due to the deterioration in California theft laws. Go back and read the sequence. My post had NOTHING to do with any previous post. It was a brand-new report on the measurable effect of climate change in the Insurance Industry. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL September 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, turbguy said: My post had NOTHING to do with any previous post. It was a brand-new report on the measurable effect of climate change in the Insurance Industry. It was off topic and not related to my post about California legal changes to stop interference in theft operations. My posts PRECEDED yours. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 September 7, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Ecocharger said: I trust your prognostications like I trust your evaluation of the Climate Panic. Chinese demand for fossil fuels remains potent and will increase. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Case-For-Chinas-Future-Oil-Demand.html "S&P Global Insight expects China’s demand for crude oil to add 6.1% this year compared with 2022. This translates into close to 1 million bpd in additional demand this year. The rate of growth is seen falling sharply to 3.5% next year as the post-pandemic situation stabilizes. S&P Global is not the only forecaster expecting strong oil demand growth from China. Virtually every forecaster agrees that the country is the largest driver of oil demand in the world right now, whatever its PMI and consumer sentiment data say." From your article: “China is down-shifting onto a slower growth path sooner than we expected,” Bloomberg Economics said in a research note this week. “The post-Covid rebound has run out of steam, reflecting a deepening property slump and fading confidence in Beijing’s management of the economy. Weak confidence risks becoming entrenched — resulting in an enduring drag on growth potential.” Bloomberg again noted that China’s purchases of liquefied natural gas on the spot market have been slower than expected this year. They were 11% higher than last year’s over the period January to August, but that was still lower than the figure for 2021, Stephen Stapczynski wrote, and heightened uncertainty about the coming winter. S&P Global Insight expects China’s demand for crude oil to add 6.1% this year compared with 2022. This translates into close to 1 million bpd in additional demand this year. The rate of growth is seen falling sharply to 3.5% next year as the post-pandemic situation stabilizes. Edited September 7, 2023 by Jay McKinsey Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 September 7, 2023 2 hours ago, AlBub said: Funny how in the early afternoon on a hot day or at sunset when the wind dies down, coal and gas just keep right on generating. It's a darn good thing we have solar to pick up the slack on the nights when the wind doesn't blow. No that element is called storage, mainly be batteries and actually coal and gas plants are breaking down like crazy so they don't just keep right on generating. In mid-August, more than 11,000 megawatts at thermal plants across Texas were out Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM September 7, 2023 2 hours ago, Ron Wagner said: So what? Do you see ocean levels rising much in the last 200 years? No. huh no rise........is sure is up a lot.......ask anyone near the beaches in Florida....beeches are disappearing Today, sea level is 5 to 8 inches (13-20 centimeters) higher on average than it was in 1900. That's a pretty big change: for the previous 2,000 years, sea level hadn't changed much at all.Apr 30, 2018 Sea Level Rise | Smithsonian Ocean Florida's Sea Level Rise sealevelrise.org https://sealevelrise.org › states › florida Sea levels around Florida are rising as much as 1 inch every 3 years, and tidal flooding in some areas of the state has increased 352% since 2000. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Plant + 2,756 RP September 7, 2023 (edited) 5 hours ago, AlBub said: Funny how in the early afternoon on a hot day or at sunset when the wind dies down, coal and gas just keep right on generating. It's a darn good thing we have solar to pick up the slack on the nights when the wind doesn't blow. You clearly have never heard of CSP plants using liquid salt to power the steam turbine through the night! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concentrated_solar_power As Jay says then there's these things called batteries or pumped storage etc etc Try again! Edited September 7, 2023 by Rob Plant Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Plant + 2,756 RP September 7, 2023 7 hours ago, AlBub said: Funny how in the early afternoon on a hot day or at sunset when the wind dies down, coal and gas just keep right on generating. It's a darn good thing we have solar to pick up the slack on the nights when the wind doesn't blow. A new report published by the Rocky Mountain Institute has forecast that wind and solar energy will produce more than 33% of total energy in the world by 2030 compared to just 12% currently "Exponential growth of clean energy is an unstoppable force. The benefit of rapid renewable deployment is greater energy security and independence, plus long-term energy price deflation because this is a manufactured technology - the more you install the cheaper it gets," RMI said. The report concludes the COP28 goal for renewable power, which seeks to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, is achievable as long as adequate grid investment, streamlined permitting and investments into greater storage are made. Why China’s Clean Energy Companies Are Blowing Everyone Else Away | OilPrice.com Looks like your favourite renewables are coming to a State near you very soon! a 21% increase in 6.1/3 years is pretty damn amazing growth! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL September 7, 2023 10 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said: From your article: “China is down-shifting onto a slower growth path sooner than we expected,” Bloomberg Economics said in a research note this week. “The post-Covid rebound has run out of steam, reflecting a deepening property slump and fading confidence in Beijing’s management of the economy. Weak confidence risks becoming entrenched — resulting in an enduring drag on growth potential.” Bloomberg again noted that China’s purchases of liquefied natural gas on the spot market have been slower than expected this year. They were 11% higher than last year’s over the period January to August, but that was still lower than the figure for 2021, Stephen Stapczynski wrote, and heightened uncertainty about the coming winter. S&P Global Insight expects China’s demand for crude oil to add 6.1% this year compared with 2022. This translates into close to 1 million bpd in additional demand this year. The rate of growth is seen falling sharply to 3.5% next year as the post-pandemic situation stabilizes. Again, the reality is what is happening right now, with China increasing demand for oil by 6.1%, a huge demand increase. The figures going forward are merely speculation, but even a growth rate for oil demand of 3.5% is a huge increase. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL September 7, 2023 5 hours ago, Rob Plant said: A new report published by the Rocky Mountain Institute has forecast that wind and solar energy will produce more than 33% of total energy in the world by 2030 compared to just 12% currently "Exponential growth of clean energy is an unstoppable force. The benefit of rapid renewable deployment is greater energy security and independence, plus long-term energy price deflation because this is a manufactured technology - the more you install the cheaper it gets," RMI said. The report concludes the COP28 goal for renewable power, which seeks to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, is achievable as long as adequate grid investment, streamlined permitting and investments into greater storage are made. Why China’s Clean Energy Companies Are Blowing Everyone Else Away | OilPrice.com Looks like your favourite renewables are coming to a State near you very soon! a 21% increase in 6.1/3 years is pretty damn amazing growth! That is a speculation of FUTURE growth, not a report on actual growth. Future speculations are just that, speculations. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TailingsPond + 1,008 GE September 7, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, Ecocharger said: That is a speculation of FUTURE growth, not a report on actual growth. Future speculations are just that, speculations. You love to speculate on the future of oil and coal while acting like they are forgone conclusions. Edited September 7, 2023 by TailingsPond Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bloodman33 + 22 TJ September 7, 2023 (edited) Data predictions ecocharger does not like are speculation. Predictions ecocharger likes are fact. Pathetic. This entire blog should be shut down. It gives a voice to propaganda and stupidity and helps nobody. It would make oilprice.com much better not giving a voice to lunatics or shills. Edited September 8, 2023 by bloodman33 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL September 7, 2023 1 hour ago, TailingsPond said: You love to speculate on the future of oil and coal while acting like they are forgone conclusions. Demand for fossil fuels is currently going through the roof, and supplies of fossil fuels are abundant and there is no logical reason to transition away from them....you don't need a crystal ball to see where those factors will take us. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM September 7, 2023 18 hours ago, Ron Wagner said: You must really hate yourself then! nope... But I do hate losers, such as yourself, who think they are smart enough to tell others how to think. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM September 7, 2023 15 minutes ago, Ecocharger said: Demand for fossil fuels is currently going through the roof, and supplies of fossil fuels are abundant and there is no logical reason to transition away from them....you don't need a crystal ball to see where those factors will take us. through the roof........did you get a dead cat bounce yet above 2018 oil or 2014 coal????? Any new coal fired plants being built in the good ole USA??? maybe you can see one being built in your crystal ball??? or is your crystal got a crack in it and the coal fired plant is just being demolished???? Reality Coal is toast and oil is a few steps behind it..... China dead cat bounce.......the cat has been cremated.......China recession is getting worse Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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