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(edited)

14 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Oil production is at an all-time high and will continue to increase.

 

Well the USA rig counts continue to fall, and no, production numbers were higher 3 years ago.  You fail to accept that they are purposely suppressing production globally. Fake demand.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_oil_rotary_rigs

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

https://ycharts.com/indicators/world_crude_oil_production

Edited by TailingsPond

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On 9/15/2023 at 2:21 PM, TailingsPond said:

Well the USA rig counts continue to fall, and no, production numbers were higher 3 years ago.  You fail to accept that they are purposely suppressing production globally. Fake demand.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_oil_rotary_rigs

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

https://ycharts.com/indicators/world_crude_oil_production

Your usual counterfactual nonsense, I see. Your data is out of date, as per your usual procedure.

American oil production is at an all-time high and growing fast, urged on by pleas for increased oil production from a desperate President Biden.

https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press538.php#:~:text=The U.S. Energy Information Administration,per day in early 2024.

"The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects U.S. crude oil production to surpass 12.9 million barrels per day for the first time in late 2023 and to exceed 13 million barrels per day in early 2024. In its August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production to average 12.8 million barrels per day in 2023, which is 200,000 barrels per day more than in its July forecast.

EIA expects sustained global demand for petroleum products and Saudi Arabia’s extended voluntary production cuts will contribute to oil prices rising through the year."

Edited by Ecocharger

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On 9/13/2023 at 7:11 PM, AlBub said:

I lived it as I am in Texas. Before we cluttered the landscape with birdbeating windmills and ground heating solar panels, I had never experienced an outage over four or five hours in my entire life - in a rural area even. I've been around over 60 years so I have a little background to work on. The cold spell in 2021 caught everyone unaware because when one system went down, it had a domino effect. Gas had problems because they hadn't winterized. The helicopters did do a great job of de-icing the wind turbines though - it made a great picture.

The fact is that before wind and solar became so widely used adding fluctuation to the power supply, we didn't have those problems. PERIOD!

Just a Little More Info on Texas:

https://www.ferc.gov/media/february-2021-cold-weather-outages-texas-and-south-central-united-states-ferc-nerc-and

A confluence of two causes, both triggered by cold weather, led to the Event, part of a recurring pattern for the last ten years. First, generating units unprepared for cold weather failed in large numbers. Second, in the wake of massive natural gas production declines, and to a lesser extent, declines in natural gas processing, the natural gas fuel supply struggled to meet both residential heating load and generating unit demand for natural gas, exacerbated by the increasing reliance by generating units on natural gas.  Natural gas pipeline capacity is for the most part designed, certificated and constructed to accommodate firm transportation commitments, while many natural gas-fired generating units rely on non-firm commodity and/or pipeline transportation contracts.

ERCOT, MISO and SPP all knew from weather forecasts and warnings issued by NOAA and other meteorologists beginning in early February that an arctic cold front was expected. All three issued cold weather preparation notices to their generation and transmission operators based on when the cold weather was expected to reach their respective footprints: ERCOT and SPP on February 8, and MISO on February 9. Temperatures began to drop below freezing in ERCOT and SPP on February 8, but low temperatures dropped even lower during the week of February 14, reaching their nadir on February 15 and 16. Daily low temperatures for February 15 in the Event Area were as much as 40 to 50 degrees lower than average daily minimum temperatures for February 15. In addition to the arctic air, the cold front brought periods of freezing precipitation and snow to large parts of Texas and the South Central U.S., starting February 10, and extending into the week of February 14, 2021.

Unplanned outages of natural gas wellheads due to freeze-related issues, loss of power and facility shut-ins to prevent imminent freezing issues, beginning on approximately February 7, as well as unplanned outages of natural gas gathering and processing facilities, resulted in a decline of natural gas available for supply and transportation to many natural gas-fired generating units in the South Central U.S. Once natural gas supply outages began at the wellhead, they rippled throughout the natural gas and electric infrastructure, causing processing outages and reductions, pipeline declarations of Operational Flow Order (OFO) and force majeure, and outages and derates of natural gas-fired generating units.

U.S. natural gas production in February 2021 experienced the largest monthly decline on record.22 Between February 8 and 17, the total natural gas production in the U.S. Lower 48 fell by 28 percent. In the Event Area, Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana gas production at its lowest point of February 17 declined by an estimated 21 Bcf/d, exceeding a 50 percent decline when compared to average production in January 2021. Average production declines in those three states constituted over 80 percent of the total production declines across the lower 48 states during the period from February 15-20 when compared to average production in January 2021. Most producing regions of the U.S. saw a sharp decline and recovery associated with temperature—when temperatures fell, regional production dropped, and as temperatures rose after the Event, regional production recovered, ultimately to pre-Event levels by late February.

During the week of February 7, ERCOT and SPP experienced rising load, as well as increasing generating unit outages, primarily caused by wind turbine blade freezing as a result of freezing precipitation, and natural gas fuel supply issues. Although ERCOT and SPP issued several alerts, they did not have to take any emergency actions because enough generation remained online to meet load. 

But the week of February 14 brought far colder weather, and ERCOT, SPP and MISO all faced emergency conditions simultaneously. Temperatures dropped as low as six degrees in Austin, eight degrees in Dallas and ten degrees in Houston. Unplanned generating unit outages and derates in ERCOT escalated sharply in the late-night hours of February 14 into the early morning hours of February 15, and ERCOT set an all-time winter peak record for system load of 69,871 MW at 8:00 p.m. on February 14. The combination of high load and increasing unplanned generating unit outages caused ERCOT’s Physical Responsive Capability to drop below acceptable levels, and at 12:15 a.m., it issued the first stage of an Energy Emergency Alert (EEA),  EEA 1, which allowed it to deploy demand response resources.

Beginning in the early hours of February 15 at approximately 12:18 a.m., the ERCOT Interconnection frequency, which measures the balance of supply and demand on the BES and is thus a critical indicator of BES reliability status, began to fall below the normal band level. At first ERCOT was able to recover its frequency to normal levels through deployment of load management measures, but it continued to suffer generating unit outages and needed to order its first 1,000 MW of load shed at 1:20 a.m. As system frequency continued to fall, ERCOT BA operators ordered an additional 1,000 MW of load shed, but generating units continued to fail and frequency declined to the point that ERCOT operators had only nine minutes to prevent approximately 17,000 MW of generating units from tripping due to underfrequency relays, which could potentially cause a complete blackout of the ERCOT Interconnection. ERCOT system frequency eventually bottomed out, and finally rose above the generator trip level after remaining below for over four minutes.

However, unplanned generating outages continued, and ERCOT system operators continued to shed firm load to balance demand against the massive generating unit losses. For over two days, including generating units already on planned or unplanned outages when the Event began as well as unplanned outages that began during the Event, ERCOT averaged 34,000 MW of generation outages (based on expected capacity). To balance ERCOT’s load against those staggering generation losses, ERCOT operators continued to order firm load shed, lasting nearly three consecutive days, and peaking at 20,000 MW by 7 p.m. on February 15.

 

 

Edited by turbguy

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1 minute ago, turbguy said:

Just a Little More Info on Texas:

https://www.ferc.gov/media/february-2021-cold-weather-outages-texas-and-south-central-united-states-ferc-nerc-and

A confluence of two causes, both triggered by cold weather, led to the Event, part of a recurring pattern for the last ten years. First, generating units unprepared for cold weather failed in large numbers. Second, in the wake of massive natural gas production declines, and to a lesser extent, declines in natural gas processing, the natural gas fuel supply struggled to meet both residential heating load and generating unit demand for natural gas, exacerbated by the increasing reliance by generating units on natural gas.  Natural gas pipeline capacity is for the most part designed, certificated and constructed to accommodate firm transportation commitments, while many natural gas-fired generating units rely on non-firm commodity and/or pipeline transportation contracts.

 

 

ERCOT, MISO and SPP all knew from weather forecasts and warnings issued by NOAA and other meteorologists beginning in early February that an arctic cold front was expected. All three issued cold weather preparation notices to their generation and transmission operators based on when the cold weather was expected to reach their respective footprints: ERCOT and SPP on February 8, and MISO on February 9. Temperatures began to drop below freezing in ERCOT and SPP on February 8, but low temperatures dropped even lower during the week of February 14, reaching their nadir on

 

February 15 and 16. Daily low temperatures for February 15 in the Event Area were as much as 40 to 50 degrees19 lower than average daily minimum temperatures for February 15. In addition to the arctic air, the cold front brought periods of freezing precipitation and snow to large parts of Texas and the South Central U.S., starting February 10, and extending into the week of February 14, 2021.

Unplanned outages of natural gas wellheads due to freeze-related issues, loss of power and facility shut-ins to prevent imminent freezing issues, beginning on approximately February 7, as well as unplanned outages of natural gas gathering and processing facilities, resulted in a decline of natural gas available for supply and transportation to many natural gas-fired generating units in the South Central U.S. Once natural gas supply outages began at the wellhead, they rippled throughout the natural gas and electric infrastructure, causing processing outages and reductions, pipeline declarations of Operational Flow Order (OFO) and force majeure, and outages and derates of

 

natural gas-fired generating units. U.S. natural gas production in February 2021 experienced the largest monthly decline on record.22 Between February 8 and 17, the total natural gas production in the U.S. Lower 48 fell by 28 percent. In the Event Area, Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana gas production at its lowest point of February 17 declined by an estimated 21 Bcf/d, exceeding a 50 percent decline when compared to average production in January 2021. Average production declines in those three states constituted over 80 percent of the total production declines across the lower 48 states during the period from February 15-20 when compared to average production in

 

January 2021. Most producing regions of the U.S. saw a sharp decline and recovery associated with temperature—when temperatures fell, regional production dropped, and as temperatures rose after the Event, regional production recovered, ultimately to pre-Event levels by late February.

During the week of February 7, ERCOT and SPP experienced rising load, as well as increasing generating unit outages, primarily caused by wind turbine blade freezing as a result of freezing precipitation, and natural gas fuel supply issues. Although ERCOT and SPP issued several alerts, they did not have to take any emergency actions because enough generation remained online to meet load. 

But the week of February 14 brought far colder weather, and ERCOT, SPP and MISO all faced emergency conditions simultaneously. Temperatures dropped as low as six degrees in Austin, eight degrees in Dallas and ten degrees in Houston. Unplanned generating unit outages and derates in ERCOT escalated sharply in the late-night hours of February 14 into the early morning hours of February 15, and ERCOT set an all-time winter peak record for system load of 69,871 MW at 8:00 p.m. on February 14. The combination of high load and increasing unplanned generating unit outages caused ERCOT’s Physical Responsive Capability to drop below acceptable levels, and at 12:15 a.m., it issued the first stage of an Energy Emergency Alert (EEA),  EEA 1, which allowed it to deploy demand response resources.

 

 

Beginning in the early hours of February 15 at approximately 12:18 a.m., the ERCOT

 

Interconnection frequency, which measures the balance of supply and demand on the BES and is thus a critical indicator of BES reliability status, began to fall below the normal band level. At first ERCOT was able to recover its frequency to normal levels through deployment of load management measures, but it continued to suffer generating unit outages and needed to order its first 1,000 MW of load shed at 1:20 a.m. As system frequency continued to fall, ERCOT BA operators ordered an additional 1,000 MW of load shed, but generating units continued to fail and frequency declined to the point that ERCOT operators had only nine minutes to prevent approximately 17,000 MW of

 

generating units from tripping due to underfrequency relays, which could potentially cause a complete blackout of the ERCOT Interconnection. ERCOT system frequency eventually bottomed out, and finally rose above the generator trip level after remaining below for over four minutes.

 

However, unplanned generating outages continued, and ERCOT system operators continued to shed firm load to balance demand against the massive generating unit losses. For over two days, including generating units already on planned or unplanned outages when the Event began as well as unplanned outages that began during the Event, ERCOT averaged 34,000 MW of generation outages (based on expected capacity). To balance ERCOT’s load against those staggering generation losses, ERCOT operators continued to order firm load shed, lasting nearly three consecutive days, and peaking at 20,000 MW by 7 p.m. on February 15.

 

 

 

 

It is clear that wind and solar do not work well in conjunction with natural gas units. The wind and solar money-guzzlers should be discontinued in favor of more affordable fossil fuel sources.

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Just now, Ecocharger said:

It is clear that wind and solar do not work well in conjunction with natural gas units. The wind and solar money-guzzlers should be discontinued in favor of more affordable fossil fuel sources.

If that is so, why is it integrated so successful the VAST majority of the time? Like WELL over 99.9%?

Why didn't the Natural Gas Units DO THEIR JOB??

THEY WERE SUPPOSED TO!

(Hint, It's the money)

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(edited)

The European insanity continues, showing the complete lack of basic knowledge of how economic forces work in the real world. The French tradition of trying to grow oranges in the depths of Versailles to provide convenient orange supplies has not progressed in terms of intelligence since the 18th century.

Trying to order the forces of economics to behave  and obey the dictates of frustrated government officials has now reached the summit of ineptitude.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/France-May-Take-Action-To-Curb-Oil-Refiners-Profits.html

"French Finance Minister Le Maire questions high refining margins and ponders policies to curb excessive profits in the downstream sector.

Le Maire: Windfall taxes are one way France could help alleviate the pain of high prices for consumers.

Earlier this week, Le Maire said the inflation burden must be shared as he welcomed TotalEnergies's Tuesday decision to keep a cap on fuel prices beyond the end of the year."

 

"In September last year, the Council of the European Union agreed to impose a temporary windfall tax on energy companies that realize "above a 20% increase of the average yearly taxable profits since 2018," on top of whatever taxes these companies already own in their individual countries. 

In March of this year, ExxonMobil announced its disappointment with the windfall tax trend, saying it would take a look at its role in Europe in light of the new taxes on profits. At the time, Exxon likened Europe's windfall tax craze as the stick, and the United States' Inflation Reduction Act as the carrot as the oil supermajor created a new clean energy business venture in the United States.

ExxonMobil filed a lawsuit against the EU over the 33% windfall tax in December after claiming that the windfall tax could cost the company $2 billion in 2023, and announced that whether Exxon invests in Europe depends on how attractive and globally competitive Europe will be."

Edited by Ecocharger

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3 minutes ago, turbguy said:

If that is so, why is it integrated so successful the VAST majority of the time? Like WELL over 99.9%?

Why didn't the Natural Gas Units DO THEIR JOB??

THEY WERE SUPPOSED TO!

(Hint, It's the money)

It is not possible to get real cooperation between fossil fuel and wind....it is time to junk the wind business.

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27 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

It is not possible to get real cooperation between fossil fuel and wind....it is time to junk the wind business.

If that is so, why is it integrated so successful the VAST majority of the time (particularly in Texas)? Like WELL over 99.9%?

(Hint. It's called "Grid Management").

Edited by turbguy

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44 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Your usual counterfactual nonsense, I see. Your data is out of date, as per your usual procedure.

American oil production is at an all-time high and growing fast, urged on by pleas for increased oil production from a desperate President Biden.

I didn't present any out of date data, they were links to essentially live feeds.  Stay classy.

Now more "pleas from government" to increase production.  Once again, successful industries do not require government intervention.

Signs of a failing industry when the president has to beg the energy industry to invest in it's oil sector.

 

Edited by TailingsPond

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(edited)

Twelve years ago (2011), Texas power plants froze during a winter storm, causing rolling blackouts (i.e., load shed)  across the state. Pissed-off regulators and lawmakers in Texas, vowing to crack down, seriously considered requiring energy companies to protect their equipment against extreme weather to ensure availability.

...AND they didn’t!

Ten years ago, Texas agencies (plural!) that regulate utilities and the oil and gas industry, warned that nat gas facilities that lost power couldn’t supply generation plants, creating a domino effect of power loss. Those TEXAS agencies BOTH recommended that lawmakers compel gas suppliers and generator owners to fix that.

...AND they didn’t!

Six years ago, economists warned that the Texas energy-market grid left companies a minuscule incentive to build additional plants to provide power during emergencies. Then-Gov. Rick Perry, legislators, and regulators looked at increasing power rates to promote the construction of more power plants, so that Texas, like other states, would have sufficient reserves.

...AND they didn’t!

After each power failure (or near-failure) over the past decades, Texas legislators stood at a fork in the road. In one direction was government-mandated solutions that would strengthen ERCOT's power system, making it durable under stress. In the other direction was the furtherance of Texas’ "hands-off approach", leaving for-profit energy companies to decide how to supply and support the power grid.

The current Texas power market arose in the late 1990s replacing the state-controlled system which provided Texas electricity for almost a century. Rising power prices (i.e., fuel costs increases) became increasingly unpopular among the public & industry, in particular the petrochemical plants and refineries on the Gulf Coast.

That plan actually worked (particularly for big business)!  Since 2001, the last year before deregulation, average industrial electricity rates in Texas FELL by 7 percent (+/-). Over that same period, average residential rates GREW almost 30 percent (though they are below the national average).  Hmmmm....lots of wind & solar, that don't pay to BURN anything??

Cheap power fed the oil and petrochemical boom along the Gulf Coast and West Texas, attracting new companies. Then, a whole a new industry (electricity retailing),  consisting of a multitude of companies, arose out of the ether to act as middlemen, and negotiated prices from generators to attract more customers, increasing profits.

With the old state-regulated arrangement, siloed utilities had to keep enough capacity to adequately serve every customer in their area. WITH THE "NEW" SYSTEM" (deregulation), that part was yielded to the ethereal “invisible hand” of the free market.

The problem is not ERCOT, it is not renewables, IT'S TEXAS!

 

 

Edited by turbguy

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4 hours ago, TailingsPond said:

I didn't present any out of date data, they were links to essentially live feeds.  Stay classy.

Now more "pleas from government" to increase production.  Once again, successful industries do not require government intervention.

Signs of a failing industry when the president has to beg the energy industry to invest in it's oil sector.

 

The President has to make up his mind, does he want more oil and gasoline, or less oil and gasoline?

I guess he wants more, and so does everyone else.

Edited by Ecocharger
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9 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

The President has to make up his mind, does he want more oil and gasoline, or less oil and gasoline?

I guess he wants more, and so does everyone else.

What he wants is less expensive energy.

If you don't BURN something to get it, all the better, for almost everyone, except for those that have an interest in "burnables".  THEY want more expensive energy.

The higher the price of "traditional" sources becomes, the more attractive alternatives become.

We are still in the beginning of a change in the paradigm.  It's gonna take decades...

"There is nothing more powerful than an idea whose time has come".

Edited by turbguy

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4 hours ago, turbguy said:

There is nothing more powerful than an idea whose time has come".

And nothing more drastic when a bad idea has gone horribly wrong

I give you the dark ages Europe is now experiencing, and at the same moment in time there manufacturing industries are being crtictically challenged  to the point of collapse.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

And nothing more drastic when a bad idea has gone horribly wrong

I give you the dark ages Europe is now experiencing, and at the same moment in time there manufacturing industries are being crtictically challenged  to the point of collapse.

Yes, the EU should never have relied on such an evil source of energy as that provided by Russia.

That was the bad, bad idea gone horribly wrong.

That magic ingredient, money, working its wonders and failures.

 

Edited by turbguy

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14 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

The President has to make up his mind, does he want more oil and gasoline, or less oil and gasoline?

I guess he wants more, and so does everyone else.

Obviously not so stop lying to yourself. Plenty of powerful players are working to phase out gas. Pretend that is not he case all you want, it doesn't change the reality.

Childlike egocentric thought.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_policy_of_the_Joe_Biden_administration

Edited by TailingsPond

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25 minutes ago, turbguy said:

Yes, the EU should never have relied on such an evil source of energy as that provided by Russia.

Mr.Turbguy....The EU was heralded as the renewable mecca of the world. Now your saying that was..."Fake News". In fact the EU was the "Fossil Fuel" mecca? 

At some point Green most come clean, as of now unsubstainabilty would be the main headlines 

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30 minutes ago, TailingsPond said:

Obviously not so stop lying to yourself. Plenty of powerful players are working to phase out gas. Pretend that is not he case all you want, it doesn't change the reality.

Childlike egocentric thought.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_policy_of_the_Joe_Biden_administration

The President himself is begging the oil companies to produce more oil and gasoline....you are blinkered beyond belief.

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23 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

The President himself is begging the oil companies to produce more oil and gasoline....you are blinkered beyond belief.

Short term versus long-term vision. Oil is a military strategic resource so of course it has some special "value."  War is not desirable, nor are all the guns, bombs and gas needed to fuel it.

You say things like "everyone wants more gas" when that is clearly wrong in reality.  You lose whatever shed of credibility you have every time you make illogical statements like that.

Do you deny the existence of EV companies? :)

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18 minutes ago, TailingsPond said:

Do you deny the existence of EV companies? :)

The solvent or insolvent...That would be the question. 

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5 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

The solvent or insolvent...That would be the question. 

It was a trick question.  Essentially all automakers are EV companies now. ;)

Just FYI Tesla stock is up 1,276% over the last 5 years.

Ford is up 28%, GM down 3.9%, over the same last 5 years. 

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1 hour ago, TailingsPond said:

It was a trick question.  Essentially all automakers are EV companies now. ;)

Just FYI Tesla stock is up 1,276% over the last 5 years.

Ford is up 28%, GM down 3.9%, over the same last 5 years. 

Oh not at all. Green Energy speculation is failing globally. Ford is backing off green once again, GM/China production is almost non existent. In fact Ford is distancing themselves from GM as we speak. Farley is being shown the door.

FORD STRENGTHENS POSITION AS ‘AMERICA’S AUTOMAKER’ WITH MOST HOURLY WORKERS, US-ASSEMBLED VEHICLES AND EXPORTS

 

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2023/04/10/ford-strengthens-position-as-americas-automaker-with-most-hourly.html

Edited by Eyes Wide Open
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45 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Oh not at all. Green Energy speculation is failing globally. Ford is backing off green once again, GM/China production is almost non existent. In fact Ford is distancing themselves from GM as we speak. Farley is being shown the door.

FORD STRENGTHENS POSITION AS ‘AMERICA’S AUTOMAKER’ WITH MOST HOURLY WORKERS, US-ASSEMBLED VEHICLES AND EXPORTS

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2023/04/10/ford-strengthens-position-as-americas-automaker-with-most-hourly.html

What does that have to do with the topic?  Ford makes EV's.  https://www.ford.ca/electric-vehicles/battery-electric-vehicles/

On the subject, it remains impossible to defend a statement like "every one wants more gas."

 

 

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7 minutes ago, TailingsPond said:

On the subject, it remains impossible to defend a statement like "every one wants more gas."

 

7 minutes ago, TailingsPond said:

What does that have to do with the topic?  Ford makes EV's.  https://www.ford.ca/electric-vehicles/battery-electric-vehicles/

On the subject, it remains impossible to defend a statement like "every one wants more gas."

 

 

Let us start here shall we?

Worrying signs for GM as its EV sales plunge and legacy auto stares into abyss

US automotive giant General Motors sold just 15,652 electric vehicles in the second quarter of 2023, down from 20,670 in Q1 representing a drop in sales of 24%.

 

 

https://thedriven.io/2023/07/06/worrying-signs-for-gm-as-its-ev-sales-plunge-and-legacy-auto-stares-into-abyss/

Edited by Eyes Wide Open

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3 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Mr.Turbguy....The EU was heralded as the renewable mecca of the world. Now your saying that was..."Fake News". In fact the EU was the "Fossil Fuel" mecca? 

At some point Green most come clean, as of now unsubstainabilty would be the main headlines 

Please do not put your words into my mouth, unless you can show me those words coming out of my mouth.

 

Edited by turbguy

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