GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

1 minute ago, TailingsPond said:

You repeat your misinformation so often you are starting to believe it.

Show me when real changes happen. 

Like Eyes closed waiting... any day now....

Sure, run away and avoid the truth. You have lots of fellow lemmings in your company.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

19 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

No, what matters is the car in the driveway, that is private sales, now at a 27% rate of decline in the UK. The inevitable and predictable state of distress for the Green mania.

Nonsense, fleet cars are as important as private. They all represent an EV that was purchased in place of an ICE.

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

17 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Nonsense, fleet cars are as important as private. They all represent an EV that was purchased in place of an ICE.

The meltdown in EV sales in UK is first afflicting the private sales, but fleet and business EV purchases are still under special subsidy. When, rather than if,  those are withdrawn the whole weak structure is crashing to a halt. We are already seeing this in the U.S.

Second-hand EVs are vulnerable to major battery replacement which makes them unattractive in the resale game.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Ecocharger

[TailingsPond + 502]

18 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Sure, run away and avoid the truth. You have lots of fellow lemmings in your company.

I asked you to show me reality, not your fantasy.

You do notice that there are plenty of "lemmings" on my side.  Do you not respect democracy?

Edited September 21, 2023 by TailingsPond

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

8 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

The meltdown in EV sales in UK is first afflicting the private sales, but fleet and business EV purchases are still under special subsidy. When, rather than if,  those are withdrawn the whole weak structure is crashing to a halt. We are already seeing this in the U.S.

Second-hand EVs are vulnerable to major battery replacement which makes them unattractive in the resale game.

Fleets are one of the strongest markets for EVs because of their lower fuel and maintenance costs which is what fleets worry about. It just took a few years for that market to take off. But what you are really missing is that in the UK a majority of those fleet cars are for employee's and they do park in the employees driveway.

What we are seeing in the US is 71% PEV growth

Plug-In Vehicle Sales

A total of 126,294 plug-in vehicles (99,089 BEVs and 27,205 PHEVs) were sold during August 2023 in the United States, up 71.5% from the sales in August 2022. PEVs captured 9.51% of total LDV sales this month.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Jay McKinsey

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

6 minutes ago, TailingsPond said:

I asked you to show me reality, not your fantasy.

You to notice that there are plenty of "lemmings" on my side.  Do you not respect democracy?

There is a difference between democracy and a herd of lemmings running off the edge of a cliff.

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

2 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Fleets are one of the strongest markets for EVs because of their lower fuel and maintenance costs which is what fleets worry about. It just took a few years for that market to take off. But what you are really missing is that in the UK a majority of those fleet cars are for employees and they do park in the employees driveway.

What we are seeing in the US is 71% PEV growth

Plug-In Vehicle Sales

A total of 126,294 plug-in vehicles (99,089 BEVs and 27,205 PHEVs) were sold during August 2023 in the United States, up 71.5% from the sales in August 2022. PEVs captured 9.51% of total LDV sales this month.

Hybrids are fossil fuel cars. And sales of EVs are piling up on the lots, almost like in China.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

3 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Hybrids are fossil fuel cars.

PHEV are EV's with ICE extenders. As commuter cars they seldom need gasoline.

They are also only 21% of the PEV market in the US.

My numbers did not include any plain hybrids.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Jay McKinsey

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

2 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

PHEV are EV's with ICE extenders. As commuter cars they seldom need gasoline.

They are also only 21% of the PEV market in the US.

My numbers did not include any plain hybrids.

Fossil fuel cars are fossil fuel cars.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Just now, Ecocharger said:

Fossil fuel cars are fossil fuel cars.

Not when you plug them in and seldom put in fossil fuel. They are 80% EV!  Pathetic that you are trying to claim cars that run mostly on electricity. You are getting desperate.

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

2 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Not when you plug them in and seldom put in fossil fuel. They are 80% EV!  Pathetic that you are trying to claim cars that run mostly on electricity. You are getting desperate.

80%? You just pull that one out of your hat?

Edited September 20, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

2 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

80%? You just pull that one out of your hat?

The average commute is 41 miles. The most popular PHEVs such as the Toyota Rav4 Prime provide that range: Commuting easily covers 80% of the average users driving. 5 days times 40 miles is 200 miles a week commuting. How often do people drive more than 40 miles on Saturday? How many drive more than 40 miles on Sunday? Both of those distances are covered by electricity. 

So 80% is conservative, it could easily be 90% on electricity.

 

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

4 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The average commute is 41 miles. The most popular PHEVs such as the Toyota Rav4 Prime provide that range: Commuting easily covers 80% of the average users driving. 5 days times 40 miles is 200 miles a week commuting. How often do people drive more than 40 miles on Saturday? How many drive more than 40 miles on Sunday? Both of those distances are covered by electricity. 

So 80% is conservative, it could easily be 90% on electricity.

 

So, in other words, you just pulled that one out of your hat.

Get me something done by an expert that gives us a true idea of how much mileage is fossil fuel and how much electric.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

32 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

So, in other words, you just pulled that one out of your hat.

Get me something done by an expert that gives us a true idea of how much mileage is fossil fuel and how much electric.

You did get data from an expert. It isn't too hard to do the numbers. I guess it is a challenge for you.

Modern popular PHEVs get 40+ miles on battery. That is 280 miles per week and 14,560 miles per year. The average distance driven is different for every driver. But on average, drivers travel 13,476 miles per year on U.S. roads, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation's Federal Highway Administration (FHWA).. So by simple math I have easily shown that a PHEV on battery is capable of covering more than all the miles driven in a year by the average US citizen. 14,560 + 20% is 17,400, very, very few non commercial drivers drive more than 17,400 miles a year. So 80% is a realistic conservative number.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Jay McKinsey

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

43 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

You did get data from an expert. It isn't too hard to do the numbers. I guess it is a challenge for you.

Modern popular PHEVs get 40+ miles on battery. That is 280 miles per week and 14,560 miles per year. The average distance driven is different for every driver. But on average, drivers travel 13,476 miles per year on U.S. roads, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation's Federal Highway Administration (FHWA).. So by simple math I have easily shown that a PHEV on battery is capable of covering more than all the miles driven in a year by the average US citizen. 14,560 + 20% is 17,400, very, very few non commercial drivers drive more than 17,400 miles a year. So 80% is a realistic conservative number.

Find actual numbers in usage, not your projections.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

Find actual numbers in usage, not your projections.

Those are the actual numbers. You just don't like them. There is no reason to pay extra for a PHEV in the US if you don't do your best to keep it charged. Deal with it. 

And again, PHEV is only 21% of the PEV market. 79% is BEV. 

Oh and starting in 2026 almost all PHEV will have 50 miles electric range as that is required for it to be counted as eligible as an EV under the California ICE ban which begins going into effect then.

Edited September 21, 2023 by Jay McKinsey

[notsonice + 1,099]

Gasoline demand is falling......enjoy the transition

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=U.S. gasoline consumption.&text=We forecast U.S. gasoline consumption,d from our August STEO.

Release Date: Sep. 12, 2023  |  Forecast Completed: Sep. 7, 2023  |  Next Release Date: Oct. 11, 2023  

 

• U.S. gasoline consumption. We reduced our U.S. gasoline consumption forecast because the U.S. Census Bureau revised its population estimates for the United States to include fewer people of working age and more people of retirement age, who tend to drive less. The revised population estimates have also resulted in a downward revision of our vehicle miles traveled (VMT) forecast, which directly affects motor gasoline consumption. We forecast U.S. gasoline consumption will average 8.9 million b/d in 2023 and 8.7 million b/d in 2024. Our 2024 forecast is down by 0.2 million b/d from our August STEO.

[notsonice + 1,099]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bumpy-road-ahead-us-gasoline-demand-energy-transition-2023-07-24/#:~:text=The EIA forecasts demand for,bpd and 8.57 million bpd.

The EIA forecasts demand for the motor fuel will fall to around 8.12 million bpd in 2030 in its reference case scenario. But it also says that depending on oil prices, policy changes, economic growth and EV sales, demand could range anywhere between 7.85 million bpd and 8.57 million bpd.

EVs are less than 1% of the 286 million vehicles on U.S. roads, but sales are rising fast. Sales are expected to grow to 1.6 million cars this year from a million last year, and could rise to as much as 8.3 million by 2030,

 

Edited September 21, 2023 by notsonice

[Rob Plant + 2,653]

15 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

 

 

You are describing PHEV plug-in hybrids not HEV plain hybrids. No HEV has an all electric mode and all their electricity is generated by gasoline. It is important to make the distinction.

Thats because I drive a PHEV Jay

I was just using my own anecdotal experience as an example that Ecocharger's statement that because I drive a hybrid to the shops I'm using FF which is a false statement.

[Rob Plant + 2,653]

14 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

I trust you to investigate my jurisdiction like I trust you to investigate California.

My own awareness is sufficient. Around here hydro is the source. Wind is far away.

Why not name it? Are you worried you will be proven wrong?

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

2 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

Thats because I drive a PHEV Jay

I was just using my own anecdotal experience as an example that Ecocharger's statement that because I drive a hybrid to the shops I'm using FF which is a false statement.

I know you drive a PHEV but you were calling it a HEV.

[Rob Plant + 2,653]

14 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

This will be short lived. Labour will take over the government in January 2025.

That is true, but Labour wont change this IMHO.

The people of the UK dont like being told what they can and cant do, hence Brexit.

Sunak's approach is a good one in my view the timeline falls in line with the rest of the Western world putting less pressure to rush the transition unecessarily whilst securing economic stability. The other point is it still allows CHOICE which is a big deal for most voters.

He hasnt made this decision for any climate policy reasons, its all about trying to win votes at the next election!

[Rob Plant + 2,653]

13 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Even accepting your figures here, that translates into a huge decline in private EV sales , as I kept showing you above. Actually the market decline rate for private EV sales is 27%.

I have been patiently waiting for you to see the light, and now that you have seen it, you are still trying to avoid the inevitable acknowledgment that private EV sales have fallen substantially. 

That's okay, I accept your belated enlightenment.

As in the U.S., without private in-home recharging capacity, there will be a very limited potential market for private EVs and they will be piling up on sales lots as they already have been in the U.S.

 

There is on average 1 BEV sold in the UK every 60 seconds.

This doesnt represent a drop in demand, it doesnt mean the UK have reached saturation point of the "niche" EV market that you claim. As Jay says the only really important point is that EV sales are up 16.6% YOY which demonstrates despite zero government incentives to buy an EV they are still growing at a fantastic rate.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 minute ago, Rob Plant said:

That is true, but Labour wont change this IMHO.

The people of the UK dont like being told what they can and cant do, hence Brexit.

Sunak's approach is a good one in my view the timeline falls in line with the rest of the Western world putting less pressure to rush the transition unecessarily whilst securing economic stability. The other point is it still allows CHOICE which is a big deal for most voters.

He hasnt made this decision for any climate policy reasons, its all about trying to win votes at the next election!

Brexit has been a disaster, a large majority of UK citizens want to get an electric car and the conservatives are going to get destroyed at the next election. Labour could easily move it back to 2030 but of course they may not. It really doesn't matter much in the scheme of things. How does Sunak's rule change add more than five years choice? 

[Rob Plant + 2,653]

11 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

No, what matters is the car in the driveway, that is private sales, now at a 27% rate of decline in the UK. The inevitable and predictable state of distress for the Green mania.

No it doesnt!

When those fleet EV sales reach 3 years old they will be renewed with further new EV sales, those old cars will then enter the used car market where they will be bought by private owners and really start to make inroads into the overall market share of on the road vehicles. Those second hand cars will be a lot cheaper and therefore more affordable to Joe public again ramping up the uptake of EV's in market share on the road.