GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[TailingsPond + 1,008]

19 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

You are missing the current trend by looking at annual changes.

 

Short-term changes smooth out.  YOY is a better metric.  Note, oil is down both on short term and YOY, yet you say demand is strong.

High inventory due to overproduction does not reduce sales, it can actually drive down the price which is good for consumers.  You would understand this if I use oil as an example. High gasoline stockpiles lower the price of gas and cheap gas increases consumption. 

The manufacturers will take a profit hit for their overproduction, but they do that in order to secure their portion of EV market share. 

 

Edited November 24, 2023 by TailingsPond

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

11 minutes ago, TailingsPond said:

Short-term changes smooth out.  YOY is a better metric.

High inventory due to overproduction does not reduce sales, it can actually drive down the price which is good for consumers.  You would understand this if I use oil as an example. High gasoline stockpiles lower the price of gas and cheap gas increases consumption. 

The manufacturers will take a profit hit for their overproduction, but they do that in order to secure their portion of EV market share. 

 

 

Oil production and demand are at all-time highs.

Your point above about EVs price decline is the usual market short-sightedness, what actually happens is that prices are driven down and production decreases to restore market balance. That is how markets work.

Fossil fuel vehicles are experiencing zero inventory buildup and no problem with fossil fuel car sales.

Furthermore, the hybrids have been shown to become increasingly dependent on fossil fuels as the curve proceeds with electrification. See above.

"For PHEVs owned by private individuals, the real-world fuel consumption is on average three times higher than the official WLTP values, while for company car PHEVs the fuel consumption is on average five times higher. Moreover, despite an increasing electric range and more public charging infrastructure, the deviation between real-world and official fuel consumption of PHEVs in Europe is observed to be GROWING."

So just as I claimed above, as we get more range to electric vehicles and increased public recharging, the consumption of fossil fuels by PHEVs actually increases relative to the expected projection. That is the reality.

 

Edited November 24, 2023 by Ecocharger

[TailingsPond + 1,008]

10 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

That is the usual market short-sightedness, what actually happens is that prices are driven down and production decreases to restore market balance. That is how markets work.

Fossil fuel vehicles are experiencing zero inventory buildup and no problem with fossil fuel car sales.

You are the one focusing on short-term changes.

Fossil vehicles will continue to have reduced inventories as manufacturers stop making them. Eventually they will be virtually gone.

Look again at the data; if the rate of EV growth is slowing, and EVs are increasing their market share versus ICE, that means new ICE sales are doing even worse.

Again take note, oil is down both on short-term and YOY, yet you say demand is strong.   You notice how they are reducing oil production to restore market balance?

 

 

Edited November 24, 2023 by TailingsPond

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

12 minutes ago, TailingsPond said:

You are the one focusing on short-term changes.

Fossil vehicles will continue to have reduced inventories as manufacturers stop making them. Eventually they will be virtually gone.

Look again at the data; if the rate of EV growth is slowing, and EVs are increasing their market share versus ICE, that means new ICE sales are doing even worse.

 

World oil production is at an all-time high and growing. You are out of touch on that. And demand for fossil fuel cars is holding up well.

No, you are thinking zero-sum, fossil fuel car sales can increase in total numbers regardless of market share. And if you look at hybrids, those are also fossil fuel vehicles.

Hybrids have been shown to become increasingly dependent on fossil fuels as the curve proceeds with electrification. 

"For PHEVs owned by private individuals, the real-world fuel consumption is on average three times higher than the official WLTP values, while for company car PHEVs the fuel consumption is on average five times higher. Moreover, despite an increasing electric range and more public charging infrastructure, the deviation between real-world and official fuel consumption of PHEVs in Europe is observed to be GROWING."

So just as I claimed above, as we get more range to electric vehicles and increased public recharging, the consumption of fossil fuels by PHEVs actually increases relative to the expected projection. That is the reality.

 

Edited November 24, 2023 by Ecocharger

[TailingsPond + 1,008]

4 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

No, you are thinking zero-sum, fossil fuel car sales can increase in total numbers regardless of market share. And if you look at hybrids, those are also fossil fuel vehicles.

 

 

Yes, they can both be increasing; but if ICE is losing market share EV are growing faster.  EV have an increasing portion of new car sales full stop. 

Edited November 24, 2023 by TailingsPond

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

1 minute ago, TailingsPond said:

Yes, they can both be increasing; but if ICE is losing market share EV are growing faster.  EV have an increasing portion of new car sales full stop.

That is not clear given the recent numbers. Fossil fuel vehicles, which include hybrids, are growing. EV sales have stalled.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Ecocharger

[TailingsPond + 1,008]

6 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

That is not clear given the recent numbers. Fossil fuel vehicles, which include hybrids, are growing. EV sales have stalled.

The article you just posted is probably the most recent numbers available; it is clear from the numbers provided. 

EV sales up, EV market share up.

If you want to preach about the death of EV maybe don't post articles where they are reporting record EV sales and decreasing ICE market share. 

Hybrids are like a gateway drug to full EV.  At the very least they reduce gasoline usage.

Edited November 24, 2023 by TailingsPond

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

3 minutes ago, TailingsPond said:

The article you just posted is probably the most recent numbers available; it is clear from the numbers provided. 

EV sales up, EV market share up.

If you want to preach about the death of EV maybe don't post articles where they are reporting record EV sales and decreasing ICE market share. 

No, if you extract hybrids, which are fossil fuel vehicles as I showed above, you have real trouble with your program, EV inventories are mushrooming and sales stalling.

Hybrids become increasingly reliant on gasoline as the curve proceeds, as I showed you above.

My thanks to Jay for finding that article and drawing our attention to it.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Ecocharger

[notsonice + 1,255]

50 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

You are missing the current trend by looking at annual changes.

Currently  "there remains an inventory problem, with EV stockpiles up 506% from a year ago, while electric vehicles linger on lots for long periods of time", whereas fossil fuel vehicles are still selling well without any inventory problems.

That means bad news for the EVs piling up on sales lots. Inventory buildups translate into production declines and market share loss.

inventory buildups at the same time of increasing sales  (what we are seeing year over year) translates into increase of market share that we are seeing right now.......

If you do not have them on your lot you do not sell them ....basic retailing

guess you do not understand even basic sales and econometrics of scale

so one more time

 

Please note the sales chart above is for ALL ELECTRIC EVs

Edited November 24, 2023 by notsonice

[TailingsPond + 1,008]

1 minute ago, Ecocharger said:

No, if you extract hybrids, which are fossil fuel vehicles as I showed above, you have real trouble with your program, EV inventories are mushrooming and sales stalling.

Fudging the data now?

I'm sorry the article you posted didn't say what you think it said.  Try again.

[notsonice + 1,255]

20 minutes ago, TailingsPond said:

You are the one focusing on short-term changes.

Fossil vehicles will continue to have reduced inventories as manufacturers stop making them. Eventually they will be virtually gone.

Look again at the data; if the rate of EV growth is slowing, and EVs are increasing their market share versus ICE, that means new ICE sales are doing even worse.

Again take note, oil is down both on short-term and YOY, yet you say demand is strong.   You notice how they are reducing oil production to restore market balance?

 

 

ecochump ignores facts and pushes his own BS fiction.....it is what losers do

He will never admit he is wrong, even when presented facts that disproves his BS, as he is unable to accept reality. He is what we call a Luddite......

and He is the King of the Luddites

Edited November 24, 2023 by notsonice

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

1 minute ago, TailingsPond said:

Fudging the data now?

I'm sorry the article you posted didn't say what you think it said.  Try again.

Here is what the article says.

Hybrids have been shown to become increasingly dependent on fossil fuels as the curve proceeds with electrification. See above.

"For PHEVs owned by private individuals, the real-world fuel consumption is on average three times higher than the official WLTP values, while for company car PHEVs the fuel consumption is on average five times higher. Moreover, despite an increasing electric range and more public charging infrastructure, the deviation between real-world and official fuel consumption of PHEVs in Europe is observed to be GROWING."

So just as I claimed above, as we get more range to electric vehicles and increased public recharging, the consumption of fossil fuels by PHEVs actually increases relative to the expected projection. That is the reality.

Again, my thanks to Jay for finding this article and drawing our attention to it.

[TailingsPond + 1,008]

1 minute ago, Ecocharger said:

Here is what the article says.

 

That is not the same article we were discussing.

Link to the full link if you wish to discuss that one instead of a cherry picking an extract.

 

Edited November 24, 2023 by TailingsPond

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

Just now, TailingsPond said:

That is not the same article.  

 

That is discussing the exact same article.

[TailingsPond + 1,008]

1 minute ago, Ecocharger said:

That is discussing the exact same article.

Clearly not.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-EV-Market-To-Cross-Million-Unit-Mark-in-2023-As-Demand-Slows.html

[notsonice + 1,255]

1 minute ago, Ecocharger said:

Here is what the article says.

Hybrids have been shown to become increasingly dependent on fossil fuels as the curve proceeds with electrification. See above.

"For PHEVs owned by private individuals, the real-world fuel consumption is on average three times higher than the official WLTP values, while for company car PHEVs the fuel consumption is on average five times higher. Moreover, despite an increasing electric range and more public charging infrastructure, the deviation between real-world and official fuel consumption of PHEVs in Europe is observed to be GROWING."

So just as I claimed above, as we get more range to electric vehicles and increased public recharging, the consumption of fossil fuels by PHEVs actually increases relative to the expected projection. That is the reality.

Again, my thanks to Jay for finding this article and drawing our attention to it.

Reality EVs are 80 percent majority of EV PHEVs sold

so do not worry

Gasoline demand is taking a hit worldwide

 

in the good ole USA

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61003

 

November 22, 2023

U.S. gasoline prices decline amid lower gasoline demand and falling crude oil prices

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

---

On November 20, 2023, the Monday before Thanksgiving, the retail price of regular gasoline averaged $3.29 per gallon (gal) across the United States, 10% less than the same time last year. After adjusting for inflation (real terms), retail gasoline prices this Thanksgiving weekend are 13% lower than last year, but they remain higher than pre-pandemic levels for the third year. This Thanksgiving, the American Automotive Association (AAA) forecasts 55 million people will travel 50 miles or more for the Thanksgiving holiday, a 2% increase compared with 2022.

Typically, U.S. retail gasoline prices follow a seasonal trend: prices increase in late summer when people drive more frequently and then decline going into the winter. Less gasoline demand than usual this fall and an early transition to winter-blend gasoline in California helped accelerate the decline in prices. Regulations on gasoline vapor pressure allow refiners to switch to less expensive components to produce gasoline in the fall, which tends to reduce gasoline prices.

Despite crude oil production cuts by OPEC+ members over the last year, concerns about slowing economic growth reducing world oil demand have continued to push crude oil prices down. The Brent crude oil price declined 15% from its most recent peak of $96.55 per barrel (b) on September 27 to $82.32/b on November 20, reaching its lowest level since July. Crude oil prices are the primary driver of U.S. gasoline prices, making up 55% of the total cost to produce a gallon of gasoline.

U.S. gasoline prices vary regionally, reflecting local supply and demand conditions, different fuel specifications required by state laws, and taxes. Regional gasoline prices are usually highest on the West Coast because of the region’s limited connections with other major refining centers, tight local supply and demand conditions, and gasoline specifications that make it more costly to manufacture. West Coast prices as of November 20 averaged $4.42/gal, down 8% since the same time last year.

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

---

The Rocky Mountain region faces similar logistical constraints as the West Coast, although overall the region has both less supply and demand. Rocky Mountain gasoline retail prices averaged $3.20/gal on November 20, down 12% from 2022.

Gasoline prices are usually the lowest on the Gulf Coast, which holds about half of U.S. refining capacity and produces more gasoline than it consumes. On November 20, the average retail gasoline price on the Gulf Coast was $2.79/gal, down 8% from the same time last year.

On the East Coast, which has the most gasoline demand of the five regions, retail gasoline prices averaged $3.17/gal, down 11% from 2022. In the Midwest, prices decreased 11% from this time last year to average $3.12/gal on the Monday before Thanksgiving.

Principal contributor: Alexander de Keyserling

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

2 minutes ago, TailingsPond said:

Clearly not.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-EV-Market-To-Cross-Million-Unit-Mark-in-2023-As-Demand-Slows.html

https://electrek.co/2022/12/22/plug-in-hybrids-use-more-gas-than-estimated-dieselgate-whistleblower-says/

For your link above.

"However, there remains an inventory problem, with EV stockpiles up 506% from a year ago, while electric vehicles linger on lots for long periods of time, according to an October report from CarGurus, signaling slowing demand."

Edited November 24, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

5 minutes ago, TailingsPond said:

That is not the same article we were discussing.

Link to the full link if you wish to discuss that one instead of a cherry picking an extract.

 

That is relevant, showing that hybrids are fossil fuel vehicles.

[TailingsPond + 1,008]

19 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

That is relevant, showing that hybrids are fossil fuel vehicles.

Ok.  Hybrid is fossil fuel light, PHEV is almost EV.  Both are designed to reduce gasoline usage, try to accept they are part of the inevitable transition.

I have no doubts that real world fuel / energy usage varies from the manufactures lies (VW etc.).  ICEs also have way more emissions than reported.

Edited November 24, 2023 by TailingsPond

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

On 11/20/2023 at 9:52 AM, Ecocharger said:

Nonsense, the claim was that purchasers of hybrids did not use their fossil fuel option....show some data to support that foolish idea.

Jay was just talking through his hat as usual.

On 11/21/2023 at 2:42 PM, Ecocharger said:

And again, I challenged you to show some data to indicate how that usage is actually played out.

Otherwise you are just talking through your hat again.

You asked for real world data on how usage actually played out and I provided it. . That data definitely shows that in the US PHEV owners use grid electricity to the maximum allowed by the battery. You make no mention of  policy until after I definitively destroyed your argument with real world data.

The only policy problem with PHEV is that they are allowed to have too small a battery to meet policy objectives. That is being solved with the new CARB rules that begin going into effect in a few years requiring a 50 mile electric capability.

You have lost the argument.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Jay McKinsey

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

32 minutes ago, TailingsPond said:

Ok.  Hybrid is fossil fuel light, PHEV is almost EV.  Both are designed to reduce gasoline usage, try to accept they are part of the inevitable transition.

I have no doubts that real world fuel / energy usage varies from the manufactures lies (VW etc.).  ICEs also have way more emissions than reported.

Hybrids have been shown to become increasingly dependent on fossil fuels as the curve proceeds with electrification. See above.

"For PHEVs owned by private individuals, the real-world fuel consumption is on average three times higher than the official WLTP values, while for company car PHEVs the fuel consumption is on average five times higher. Moreover, despite an increasing electric range and more public charging infrastructure, the deviation between real-world and official fuel consumption of PHEVs in Europe is observed to be GROWING."

So just as I claimed above, as we get more range to electric vehicles and increased public recharging, the consumption of fossil fuels by PHEVs actually increases relative to the expected projection. That is the reality.

Again, my thanks to Jay for finding this article and drawing our attention to it.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

15 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

You asked for real world data on how usage actually played out and I provided it. . That data definitely shows that in the US PHEV owners use grid electricity to the maximum allowed by the battery. You make no mention of  policy until after I definitively destroyed your argument with real world data.

The only policy problem with PHEV is that they are allowed to have too small a battery to meet policy objectives. That is being solved with the new CARB rules that begin going into effect in a few years requiring a 50 mile electric capability.

You have lost the argument.

Jay, thanks for that article, but you misread the contents (am I surprised?).

Hybrids have been shown to become increasingly dependent on fossil fuels as the curve proceeds with electrification. See above.

"For PHEVs owned by private individuals, the real-world fuel consumption is on average three times higher than the official WLTP values, while for company car PHEVs the fuel consumption is on average five times higher. Moreover, despite an increasing electric range and more public charging infrastructure, the deviation between real-world and official fuel consumption of PHEVs in Europe is observed to be GROWING."

So just as I claimed above, as we get more range to electric vehicles and increased public recharging, the consumption of fossil fuels by PHEVs actually increases relative to the expected projection. That is the reality.

Again, my thanks to Jay for finding this article and drawing our attention to it.

[TailingsPond + 1,008]

2 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

So just as I claimed above, as we get more range to electric vehicles and increased public recharging, the consumption of fossil fuels by PHEVs actually increases relative to the expected projection. That is the reality.

 

Still less gas consumption than ICEs; it is just not as good as projected. 

Fossil cars never meet their sticker MPG or emission claims.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

7 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Jay, thanks for that article, but you misread the contents (am I surprised?).

Hybrids have been shown to become increasingly dependent on fossil fuels as the curve proceeds with electrification. See above.

"For PHEVs owned by private individuals, the real-world fuel consumption is on average three times higher than the official WLTP values, while for company car PHEVs the fuel consumption is on average five times higher. Moreover, despite an increasing electric range and more public charging infrastructure, the deviation between real-world and official fuel consumption of PHEVs in Europe is observed to be GROWING."

So just as I claimed above, as we get more range to electric vehicles and increased public recharging, the consumption of fossil fuels by PHEVs actually increases relative to the expected projection. That is the reality.

Again, my thanks to Jay for finding this article and drawing our attention to it.

Please try and learn how to read a graph. This is not about policy or dumb government estimates but the real world usage. The real world is absolutely crystal clear:

The average daily drive in the US is 37 miles so if people are maximizing their battery use then we should see cars with 37 mile electric range at 50% power share.  Cars with range of 23 miles should be at 25% electric share. And surprise surprise that is exactly what we see!!!

Until just recently most PHEV were in the 15-25 mile range now they are moving into the 30-40 mile range. They will be 50+ in a few years as the California ICE ban begins to take effect. It requires a minimum 50 mile electric range.

I'm sure this will have to be explained to you over and over and over...

 

Edited November 24, 2023 by Jay McKinsey

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

Just now, TailingsPond said:

Still less gas consumption than ICEs; it is just not as good as projected. 

Fossil cars never meet their sticker MPG or emission claims.

They are fossil fuel cars, and increasingly so going forward.