GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

 

21 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Nope, you again show that you cannot read simple numbers.

That 62% number is for July YoY, a different period from the recent one for November YoY.

Between July and November this year the demand for EVs has apparently fallen off the edge.

The EV uptake in Europe has fallen off the radar.

"For the 12 months to July 2023, the region saw a surge of 62% in EV sales,"

Your data and mindset is out of date.

A one month YoY drop of 3% is falling off the radar? 🙂 You do enjoy making people laugh, at you.

 

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by Jay McKinsey

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

59 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Batteries do not provide grid support other than ripple power for which as you point out they are excellent at saving ~that 0.25% that is otherwise wasted.  Batteries can provide base load and load following(technically).  They provide ZERO inertia/buffer which is far more important than ripple following as they have zero turning mechanical inertia devices(Also why DC is not very good and AC wins)(transformers)

Smaller footprint... Not exactly, but if you have lower head pressure, you are right. 

Take for instance here in Washington state it has been proposed many times to build a giant lake(s) up above Columbia River gorge to store the WASTED 25% of the power going down the Columbia river every spring during snowmelt season with a +++1000+++ meter height potential.  Each cubic meter of water has an energy density of ~2.5kWh/m^3 @1000m head pressure.    A battery, once manufactured has a higher density right and currently sits about ?  But, for every cubic meter of battery produced there are at least 10(minimum) or 100 or 1000 cubic meters of land overburden or just junk with what you want.  Off hand that is about equal if you asked me. Lets do a comparison...

A Tesla Megapack ~3.9MWh/TEU; 1 TEU ~38M^3 Energy Density of 3900kWh/38m^3 ~= 39kWh/m^3   Or roughly ~15X energy density of water @1000m above its lower basin.  Here is the rub: water is free(in places that have the water anyways) and dams are dirt cheap and last forever compared to batteries.   Batteries are not free and do not last forever.  Both have roughly same efficiency in storing power except batteries lose their power over time, giant lakes... do not(unless a desert but still lose less than batteries do over same time period)

That lake up above Columbia river Gorge?  By itself(in the 2 locations we could easily build it), would be enough power stored for all of the PNW(WA, OR) for 2-->4 hours(small version, big version ~a day all by itself and can easily follow the load).  Now throw in several more at existing dams such as Banks lake and we have days worth of power stored.  Yet crickets from our genius politicians who are saying batteries... but no mining of course unless it is in a different country... oh yea and no refining here either... that is dirty... Its ok to shit in other peoples backyards and drinking water but not dig a septic system in your own...

Meanwhile in California:

As of July 1, total battery storage on the grid had increased to 5,600 MW.

5,000 MW of storage can serve roughly ten percent of load during the most stressful conditions on the grid and it can often provide greater than ten percent of load during peak periods.

plans call for a buildout of more than 10,000 MW in aggregate storage capacity on the grid by 2026

https://www.caiso.com/Documents/new-storage-milestone-reached-for-the-california-grid-more-than-5000-mw-now-available-for-dispatch.pdf

Suitable locations for pumped storage are very limited, that is the problem. Batteries can go almost anywhere and are very suitable for replacing old coal and gas power plants as the electric infrastructure is already at the site and thus not adding to footprint of the grid at all. Or they can be placed conveniently at a renewable facility. 

Moss Landing California: World’s biggest battery storage project is now 3GWh capacity

It is built inside the retired Moss Landing NG power plant. Plenty of space still to expand it and not take up anymore land than the power plant did.

Edited December 19, 2023 by Jay McKinsey

[TailingsPond + 1,008]

1 hour ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Odd, if you had done any BASIC reading of industrial revolution books describe tonnages moved when talking coal verses prior.  It is night and day the difference.  There is zero modern civ without coal as it has ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE more power density than wood. 

Do you even know what orders of magnitude means?

wood is 16 MJ/Kg

coal is 24 MJ/Kg

Try again

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

23 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

 

A one month YoY drop of 3% is falling off the radar? 🙂 You do enjoy making people laugh, at you.

 

 

I am laughing at your inability with numbers, old boy.

You have cited that in July 2023 there was a 62% YoY increase in EV sales in Europe of 62%, yet by November 2023 the YoY increase in EV sales had fallen down to a 3% DECREASE, which means that sales of EVs had fallen off a cliff.

The trend had run out of gas, the Europeans had enough of EVs.

That is a drastic turnaround and a disaster for the climate fools. EVs are being rejected in Europe.

Edited December 19, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

6 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

I am laughing at your inability with numbers, old bean.

You have cited that in July 2023 there was a 62% YoY increase in EV sales in Europe of 62%, yet by November 2023 the YoY increase in EV sales had fallen down to a 3% DECREASE, which means that sales of EVs had fallen off a cliff.

The trend had run out of gas, the Europeans had enough of EVs.

That is a drastic turnaround and a disaster for the climate fools. EVs are being rejected in Europe.

HaHa, So let's get this on the record. You are calling November the the peak for EV sales in Europe? 

Edited December 19, 2023 by Jay McKinsey

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

5 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

HaHa, So let's get this on the record. You are calling November the the peak for EV sales in Europe? 

Haha Jay, you are helplessly trying to deflect from the trend, the trend which is clear to understand for anyone with the slightest modicum of mathematical knowledge.

Your reported annual rate of growth in EV sales for Europe is 62% in July and now just a mere four months later the rate of growth has drastically dipped to a 3% DECLINE. Sales of EVs in Europe have fallen off a cliff.

I can understand why you do not want to discuss the trend change, that would mean opening your mind to reality.

Edited December 19, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

12 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Haha Jay, you are helplessly trying to deflect from the trend, the trend which is clear to understand for anyone with the slightest modicum of mathematical knowledge.

Your reported annual rate of growth in EV sales for Europe is 62% in July and now just a mere four months later the rate of growth has drastically dipped to a 3% DECLINE. Sales of EVs in Europe have fallen off a cliff.

I can understand why you do not want to discuss the trend change, that would mean opening your mind to reality.

HaHa you are the one that is too chicken to call your one month "trend" a peak because you know it isn't. 

You misread that paywalled article. However it was a bit old, my bad. 62% was not July YoY , it was the total preceding 12 month period July to July YoY, just as I said. Here is the most recent year to date data which has dropped by 9% to just 53%:

In October 2023, EU registrations of battery-electric cars increased significantly, growing by 36.3% to reach 121,808 units. Several markets contributed to this expansion with triple-digit percentage increases, particularly Belgium (+147.3%) and Denmark (+100.7%). Following a slowdown in September, Germany – the largest market for battery-electric cars – grew modestly (+4.3%) in October. This brings the year-to-date volume to 1.2 million units, marking a noteworthy 53.1% gain compared to last year and capturing a 14% share of the EU car market over the ten-month period.

https://www.acea.auto/pc-registrations/new-car-registrations-14-6-in-october-battery-electric-14-2-market-share/

Edited December 19, 2023 by Jay McKinsey

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

8 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

HaHa you are the one that is too chicken to call your one month "trend" a peak because you know it isn't. 

You misread that paywalled article. However it was a bit old, my bad. 62% was not July YoY , it was the total preceding 12 month period July to July YoY, just as I said. Here is the most recent year to date data which has dropped by 9%:

In October 2023, EU registrations of battery-electric cars increased significantly, growing by 36.3% to reach 121,808 units. Several markets contributed to this expansion with triple-digit percentage increases, particularly Belgium (+147.3%) and Denmark (+100.7%). Following a slowdown in September, Germany – the largest market for battery-electric cars – grew modestly (+4.3%) in October. This brings the year-to-date volume to 1.2 million units, marking a noteworthy 53.1% gain compared to last year and capturing a 14% share of the EU car market over the ten-month period.

https://www.acea.auto/pc-registrations/new-car-registrations-14-6-in-october-battery-electric-14-2-market-share/

Jay, you are still stumbling around.

That confirms the trend change I pointed out above, which you still refuse to acknowledge. Yes of course that July number is YoY 62% increase in sales for Europe. The increase YoY for November is a negative 3%, an actual decline in numbers sold.

That is a huge catastrophic fall off a cliff for European EV sales. There is no way you can dance around this.

But you make an entertaining try at a dance. Very amusing.

Edited December 19, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

20 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Jay, you are still stumbling around.

That confirms the trend change I pointed out above, which you still refuse to acknowledge. Yes of course that July number is YoY 62% increase in sales for Europe. The increase YoY for November is a negative 3%, an actual decline in numbers sold.

That is a huge catastrophic fall off a cliff for European EV sales. There is no way you can dance around this.

But you make an entertaining try at a dance. Very amusing.

Below that article is part of the last bump in EV registrations. One will find corporate EU made up the lion share of registrations Now couple that with China dumping 300000 EV'S on the continent and you have a Fire sale...That time has come and gone

Germany Just Ended Electric Vehicle Subsidies. This is Tesla's Response.

As of Sept. 1, the EV subsidy expired for businesses and was limited to private individuals. The business tax expiration spurred a big rush to buy EVs.

 

 

https://www.investors.com/news/electric-vehicle-subsidies-germany-ends-ev-bonus-abruptly-in-latest-blow-to-tesla/

Edited December 19, 2023 by Eyes Wide Open

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

6 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Jay, you are still stumbling around.

That confirms the trend change I pointed out above, which you still refuse to acknowledge. Yes of course that July number is YoY 62% increase in sales for Europe. The increase YoY for November is a negative 3%, an actual decline in numbers sold.

That is a huge catastrophic fall off a cliff for European EV sales. There is no way you can dance around this.

But you make an entertaining try at a dance. Very amusing.

If what you say is true then it is a peak. So why are you afraid to call this a peak?  

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

2 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

If what you say is true then it is a peak. So why are you afraid to call this a peak?  

Jay, you are off the point again, another failed attempt to deflect the issue. Rather transparent on your part. And very funny.

The point has already been made for anyone with the slightest knowledge of mathematics or even simple numbers.

That annual YoY growth rate in EV sales for Europe has declined drastically from a 62% YoY rate in July to a startling 3% DECLINE in November YoY.

That means catastrophe for the EV revolution, Europeans are fed up with EVs and the limits of the EV market in Europe have now been achieved. 

I know that this is sad news for you, but that is life and that is reality.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

3 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Jay, you are off the point again, another failed attempt to deflect the issue. Rather transparent on your part. And very funny.

The point has already been made for anyone with the slightest knowledge of mathematics or even simple numbers.

That annual YoY growth rate in EV sales for Europe has declined drastically from a 62% YoY rate in July to a startling 3% DECLINE in November YoY.

That means catastrophe for the EV revolution, Europeans are fed up with EVs and the limits of the EV market in Europe have now been achieved. 

I know that this is sad news for you, but that is life and that is reality.

Chicken. You clearly have no confidence in your economic analysis. 

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

6 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Chicken. You clearly have no confidence in your economic analysis. 

Haha Jay, you just have no luck in trying to deflect this issue. I feel genuinely sorry for you.

We have made the point well here that European EV sales are falling off a cliff in a clear rejection of the EV revolution.

I know that this is a sad day for you and other Climate Crazies, but the reality should be accepted.

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by Ecocharger

[turbguy + 1,544]

5 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Batteries do not provide grid support other than ripple power for which as you point out they are excellent at saving ~that 0.25% that is otherwise wasted.  Batteries can provide base load and load following(technically).  They provide ZERO inertia/buffer which is far more important than ripple following as they have zero turning mechanical inertia devices(Also why DC is not very good and AC wins)(transformers).

You are aware of the most recent grid-forming inverters, no?  Those can use power electronics and software to closely (not quite yet, but it will come) DUPLICATE the action and characteristics of rotating equipment.  It is known as "virtual inertia".

Then...on December 14, 2005...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taum_Sauk_Hydroelectric_Power_Station

That said, I'm all for more pumped storage in appropriate locations.

Edited December 19, 2023 by turbguy

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

16 minutes ago, turbguy said:

You are aware of the most recent grid-forming inverters, no?  Those can use power electronics and software to closely (not quite yet, but it will come) DUPLICATE the action and characteristics of rotating equipment.  It is known as "virtual inertia".

Then...on December 14, 2005...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taum_Sauk_Hydroelectric_Power_Station

That said, I'm all for more pumped storage in appropriate locations.

Ah, a baby Pumped hydro facility.  The one over Columbia River gorge could hold approximately 1 cubic mile and there are roughly 3 such sites to the north or each would ~approx be 5,000X larger with over 15,000,000 MWh of storage capacity dwarfing the current largest in the world; Snowy 2 pumped hydro storage capacity of 350,000 MWh.   Technically said giant dam could be put in the Indian Heaven Wilderness 1500m above the Columbia river gorge, but, it is a designated wilderness area... though honestly I do not know why anymore... it is nothing but forest.  It used to be one GIGANTIC huckleberry field everyone for decades used to go and pick berries at as it was traditionally used as a meeting place at end of high summer between the Yakima and Chehalis? Indian peoples.  Now since humans are not ripping up the place and burning all the young trees, nearly all the huckleberries/meadows/flowers have disappeared replaced with mile after mile of trees in this broad high shallow valley(s). 

Yes, guys are proposing and trying things to try and act like large rotating machinery... Sorry, not possible as there is this little thing called Physics... and giant rotating machinery have this thing called Temperature and flux allowing the iron cores to HEAT UP which absorbs said giant spikes and draining powers when power lines go down.  Power inverters sound nice until you figure out how LITTLE each giant hunk of silicon can actually absorb in power spikes(it is pitiful) and why most say screw it and propose giant capacitor banks or ... Giant Kinetic rotating machinery which while expensive... already exists.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

5 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Haha Jay, you just have no luck in trying to deflect this issue. I feel genuinely sorry for you.

We have made the point well here that European EV sales are falling off a cliff in a clear rejection of the EV revolution.

I know that this is a sad day for you and other Climate Crazies, but the reality should be accepted.

 

You are the accomplished economist who will not tell us where you got your degree and won't stand behind your analysis by telling this is a peak as you imply, how gutless are you? Is it a peak or is it not? 

As a real economist I can straight up tell you that this is a market correction, a well known concept in economics, and it will begin to grow again in the near future in Europe. 

Meanwhile it is growing like gangbusters in China and the USA.

Edited December 19, 2023 by Jay McKinsey

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

14 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

It's refreshing to see clarity on this topic. Fossil fuels pricing drops and yet pricing remains high no relief in sight.

Only to be followed by wind utility companies demanding higher rates and the British government provides the additional funding...and once again rates jumps.

So a friend is asking just how did fossil fuels ever effect rates..As you have pointed out gas has dropped yet rates go up? 

Yet the band plays on...maybe!

 

More Than Two Pubs Shut Every Day in England and Wales

In the first half of this year, 383 pubs were demolished or converted, according to new data.

The number of pubs that are closing rose dramatically in the first half of the year in England and Wales.

A total of 383 pubs were demolished or converted to other businesses, from January to June 2023, compared to 386 in the entirety of 2022, according to data from real estate company Altus Group. The sharp drop meant that on average, more than two pubs closed every single day in England and Wales.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-18/pub-closures-two-pubs-shut-every-day-in-england-and-wales

 

 

£73/MWh is still way cheaper than NG good grief!

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

14 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

It's refreshing to see clarity on this topic. Fossil fuels pricing drops and yet pricing remains high no relief in sight.

Only to be followed by wind utility companies demanding higher rates and the British government provides the additional funding...and once again rates jumps.

So a friend is asking just how did fossil fuels ever effect rates..As you have pointed out gas has dropped yet rates go up? 

Yet the band plays on...maybe!

 

More Than Two Pubs Shut Every Day in England and Wales

In the first half of this year, 383 pubs were demolished or converted, according to new data.

The number of pubs that are closing rose dramatically in the first half of the year in England and Wales.

A total of 383 pubs were demolished or converted to other businesses, from January to June 2023, compared to 386 in the entirety of 2022, according to data from real estate company Altus Group. The sharp drop meant that on average, more than two pubs closed every single day in England and Wales.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-18/pub-closures-two-pubs-shut-every-day-in-england-and-wales

 

 

Have you got any idea how many pubs per capita the UK has?

You post garbage because you simply dont understand, maybe this will help

The UK has the highest number of pubs in the world, followed by Japan, Germany, Spain and the United States. Per person, the UK has the 7^th highest number of pubs. Slovakia, Hungary, and Ireland have more than 5 pubs per 10,000 people. In the UK there's 3 pubs per 10,000 people.17 Mar 2023

 

Fun facts:

• Let’s say you could never live further than a mile away from a pub. You’d be able to live in 37% of England, 5% of Scotland, 22% of Wales and 32% of Northern Ireland.
• The most isolated pub in England is on the isles of Scilly, where your nearest pub is 28 miles away.
• Oldham is a hotspot for pubs. There are 13 pubs in just under half a square mile.

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

8 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

It was a drop for the one month of November compared to last November. The past one year period has seen a gain of 62%:

• Electric vehicle (EV) sales are surging, especially in Europe, where the market grew by 62% in the past 12 months. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/11/electric-car-sales-europe-barriers-ev-adoption/

He just cant grasp it relates to November only for YoY sales and not 2023 total numbers to 2022 total numbers.

As I've said before cherry picking 1 month out of a year is a poor sample, take the whole year v the previous one and that gives you a meaningful metric.

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

You are the accomplished economist who will not tell us where you got your degree and won't stand behind your analysis by telling this is a peak as you imply, how gutless are you? Is it a peak or is it not? 

As a real economist I can straight up tell you that this is a market correction, a well known concept in economics, and it will begin to grow again in the near future in Europe. 

Meanwhile it is growing like gangbusters in China and the USA.

He is probably scared to do so as his last prediction was $100/b by Xmas.

The only way that will happen if shipping stops through the Straits of Hormuz due to the Houtis attacking cargo ships and tankers. I'm pretty certain thats not what Eco was thinking when he made his prediction though!

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

8 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

He is probably scared to do so as his last prediction was $100/b by Xmas.

The only way that will happen if shipping stops through the Straits of Hormuz due to the Houtis attacking cargo ships and tankers. I'm pretty certain thats not what Eco was thinking when he made his prediction though!

Yep, he is terrified of having to actually stand behind his claims.

The Houthis are attacking the Red Sea, not Hormuz, so at most there could be a $10 increase. More likely $5.

Eco definitely said the price increase would be because of demand not a supply constraint that I have been explaining to him.

Edited December 19, 2023 by Jay McKinsey

[notsonice + 1,255]

9 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

He just cant grasp it relates to November only for YoY sales and not 2023 total numbers to 2022 total numbers.

As I've said before cherry picking 1 month out of a year is a poor sample, take the whole year v the previous one and that gives you a meaningful metric.

Eco is grasping at whatever non-statistical data point he can find to try to support his BS arguments. Anyone with an econ degree has to take statistics and understands that one off non-statistical data points are irrelevant when doing any data analysis.

In other-words he has nothing to back up his BS claims

Luddites never admit they are wrong

[turbguy + 1,544]

17 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Ah, a baby Pumped hydro facility.  The one over Columbia River gorge could hold approximately 1 cubic mile and there are roughly 3 such sites to the north or each would ~approx be 5,000X larger with over 15,000,000 MWh of storage capacity dwarfing the current largest in the world; Snowy 2 pumped hydro storage capacity of 350,000 MWh.   Technically said giant dam could be put in the Indian Heaven Wilderness 1500m above the Columbia river gorge, but, it is a designated wilderness area... though honestly I do not know why anymore... it is nothing but forest.  It used to be one GIGANTIC huckleberry field everyone for decades used to go and pick berries at as it was traditionally used as a meeting place at end of high summer between the Yakima and Chehalis? Indian peoples.  Now since humans are not ripping up the place and burning all the young trees, nearly all the huckleberries/meadows/flowers have disappeared replaced with mile after mile of trees in this broad high shallow valley(s). 

 

While it might be a "baby" compared to what could be installed elsewhere, it's upper reservoir failure made a real mess...

Edited December 19, 2023 by turbguy

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

15 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

You are the accomplished economist who will not tell us where you got your degree and won't stand behind your analysis by telling this is a peak as you imply, how gutless are you? Is it a peak or is it not? 

As a real economist I can straight up tell you that this is a market correction, a well known concept in economics, and it will begin to grow again in the near future in Europe. 

Meanwhile it is growing like gangbusters in China and the USA.

You have yet to show me any result of your economics training, such as it is. Economists speak a different language from yours, so I can only guess what kind of training you actually had.

No, this is not a market correction, this is market exhaustion, the natural limits of the EV market have been satisfied and now we see sales slumping in a spectacular fashion. Europeans have simply had enough of EVs.

Just what we would expect given the fragile rationale supporting the wild government schemes to change the climate.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

14 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Have you got any idea how many pubs per capita the UK has?

You post garbage because you simply dont understand, maybe this will help

The UK has the highest number of pubs in the world, followed by Japan, Germany, Spain and the United States. Per person, the UK has the 7^th highest number of pubs. Slovakia, Hungary, and Ireland have more than 5 pubs per 10,000 people. In the UK there's 3 pubs per 10,000 people.17 Mar 2023

 

Fun facts:

• Let’s say you could never live further than a mile away from a pub. You’d be able to live in 37% of England, 5% of Scotland, 22% of Wales and 32% of Northern Ireland.
• The most isolated pub in England is on the isles of Scilly, where your nearest pub is 28 miles away.
• Oldham is a hotspot for pubs. There are 13 pubs in just under half a square mile.

Too many British climate alarmists are hitting those pubs, the EV sales profile for Europe is in a free fall.