TailingsPond + 852 GE September 4 (edited) I told you the occidental petroleum stock would crash. Eco is almost as wrong about everything as eyes shut - of course those cowards fled. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OXY/ Edited September 4 by TailingsPond Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TailingsPond + 852 GE September 4 59 minutes ago, TailingsPond said: How low before it hits support levels? 70.08, 73.52 69.89, 73.34 only one hour later. Predict the dip / support level. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM September 4 (edited) 5 hours ago, TailingsPond said: 69.89, 73.34 only one hour later. Predict the dip / support level. $69.34 is the true test.....this is the low for the past year...........looks like it is going to happen in the next 24 hours ........once it passes under $69.34 the next level is $67.12.......the low in June of 2023...... Gasoline broke under $2 a gallon on the wholesale markets today ............right now at $1.97 which is the lowest it has been since March and December of 2021... all of this on top of the BS Hype out of OPEC that demand is great....what a load of shit outright market capitulation due to persistent over supply and the decline in long term demand solely due to EV sales in China...... 27 cent drop in Gasoline in a week 13 percent ....an outright bloodbath For those who were on the bandwagon that China was going to save the market in 2024 ... nope, they lost their shirts .which for all practical matters China was never going to save the market...... their consumption is less than 2023....Peak oil happened in China in 2023 and is now on the downhill path forever there is no bottom right now for Gasoline nor is there anything on the horizon December 2025 contract at $1.86.......which implies that no one is counting on a pick up in demand for years to come And the big kicker there is no profit at all in refining right now........Pesky EVs and hybrids in China are cratering Gasoline and diesel demand and the market Love to see the Saudi - Russian market manipulation getting wiped out........... With Oil at under $70, both of their economies are in deep recessions if not depressions Ukraine is doing a great job in reducing Russia's export revenue......Great play by the US to fully fund Ukraine.........2 birds with one stone And November Gas under $3 at the pump ...............guess who will get the credit? Edited September 4 by notsonice Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM September 4 (edited) 3 hours ago, notsonice said: $69.34 is the true test.....this is the low for the past year...........looks like it is going to happen in the next 24 hours ........once it passes under $69.34 the next level is $67.12.......the low in June of 2023...... Gasoline broke under $2 a gallon on the wholesale markets today ............right now at $1.97 which is the lowest it has been since March and December of 2021... all of this on top of the BS Hype out of OPEC that demand is great....what a load of shit outright market capitulation due to persistent over supply and the decline in long term demand solely due to EV sales in China...... 27 cent drop in Gasoline in a week 13 percent ....an outright bloodbath $69.34 is the true test.....this is the low for the past year...........looks like it is going to happen in the next 24 hours that was easy WTI Crude 69.32 -1.02 -1.45% next up $67.12 Pesky EVs in China Edited September 4 by notsonice Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM September 4 (edited) 11 hours ago, notsonice said: $69.34 is the true test.....this is the low for the past year...........looks like it is going to happen in the next 24 hours that was easy WTI Crude 69.32 -1.02 -1.45% next up $67.12 Pesky EVs in China WTI CRUDE •11 mins 68.91 -1.43-2.03% Gasoline 1.954 -0.024 -1.20% and the carnage continues The Green Agenda takes no prisoners Pesky EV sales in China are now running at over 55 percent of the new vehicle market and OPEC has no way to stop it....cheap gasoline will not stop the transition September percentage of New sales of EVs/plug in hybrids in China as a percent of the passenger car sales .....56 percent and higher is in the cards.........no one has to guess why the price of Oil/Gasoline is plummeting https://cnevpost.com/2024/09/04/china-nev-retail-1-million-1st-time-aug-preliminary-cpca/ China's retail sales of NEVs were a record 1.015 million units in August, with penetration rising to a record 53.14 percent, preliminary CPCA data showed. Edited September 4 by notsonice Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TailingsPond + 852 GE September 6 Tell me more about that strong demand. Even OPEC continuing with production cuts didn't stop the price slide. The silence from the "any day now!" oil and trump cults is deafening. Losers! "Personally I like winners." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TailingsPond + 852 GE September 6 (edited) On 8/12/2024 at 9:37 AM, Old-Ruffneck said: No, the producers aren't going full tilt. Would be like getting in your car and going petal to the metal and expect it to survive. You'd get half-life out of the machine. Same as oil production. While the Saudis cut back, the US gains more production. As other producing countries. Right now the world is producing a bit more than is being consumed but soon it'll reverse. Yet oil is back up again as I type this to 78.31 WTI and Brent is 80.82...... go figure why??? So now that some time has passed. OPEC+ has agreed to extend production cuts and price continues to fall. Now you say that will give the US more room for production, but at what price is exploration and expansion no longer viable for US producers? WTI is $67.51 Brent $70.99.... go figure why??? Eat some crow boys! Edited September 6 by TailingsPond 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TailingsPond + 852 GE September 6 On 8/2/2024 at 9:41 PM, Ecocharger said: Demand for oil is increasing even while prices are under pressure. That indicates a snapback is probable in oil prices. Not hard to see that. Always wrong. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Old-Ruffneck + 1,234 er September 7 7 hours ago, TailingsPond said: So now that some time has passed. OPEC+ has agreed to extend production cuts and price continues to fall. Now you say that will give the US more room for production, but at what price is exploration and expansion no longer viable for US producers? WTI is $67.51 Brent $70.99.... go figure why??? Eat some crow boys! What goes down, will go back up...guaranteed. But for me is slightly helpful with my fuel bill. Gas is at 3.69 diesel 3.74. Many states will be lower as taxes on fuel in Illinois are high. WTI at todays drilling costs, could go as low as 45 a bbl. That is the last 8 to 10 years break even. Many thousands of well still producing from the 60's thru the 80's break even is 8 dollars in the 60's to 15 in the 80's. Greed is very prevalent through-out all mining and oil world wide. I mean what I say, it may be at 67 and change but my guess politics is somewhat involved to make the ruling party look like they are "saving the middleclass'' and when the election is over, back to 80+ a barrel. So let's not barbeque the crow just yet. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TailingsPond + 852 GE September 7 (edited) 2 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said: What goes down, will go back up...guaranteed. I mean what I say, it may be at 67 and change but my guess politics is somewhat involved to make the ruling party look like they are "saving the middleclass'' and when the election is over, back to 80+ a barrel. So let's not barbeque the crow just yet. You got that saying backwards. There is no guarantee any product must regain value. Can I sell you some milk near its expiration date? A MP3 player? How about some fancy Dutch tulip bulbs? You can't even argue that oil will become valuable as an antique as it is already fossil old. The USA election has an effect but not global control of oil prices. "Drill baby drill" would lower prices further. Do you now expect another DEM victory? Edited September 7 by TailingsPond Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM September 7 4 hours ago, TailingsPond said: You got that saying backwards. There is no guarantee any product must regain value. Can I sell you some milk near its expiration date? A MP3 player? How about some fancy Dutch tulip bulbs? You can't even argue that oil will become valuable as an antique as it is already fossil old. The USA election has an effect but not global control of oil prices. "Drill baby drill" would lower prices further. Do you now expect another DEM victory? any day now any day Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Old-Ruffneck + 1,234 er September 7 5 hours ago, notsonice said: any day now any day 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TailingsPond + 852 GE September 7 3 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said: True. However, gold is traded more like a currency than a consumable commodity. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM September 7 (edited) 7 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said: winners and losers...try posting a chart for gold going back 50 years and post the inflation adjusted price........... and today Oil is the Biggest loser...and why????....politics partly to blame ........as you claim?????? oh that is a real nice twist out of you ...some secret Cabal playing with the price just for an election???? ha ha ha ha ......it is lack of demand and one of the culprits is EVs/plugin hyrbids in China and you make a broad comment ......What goes down, will go back up...guaranteed and you can then say what goes up can go back down....would you add guaranteed??? because Oil is making the statement to be true when will it go back up???? this year???? next year.....2 years from now??? 5 years????? 10 Years?????? Any day now???? 100 Buck a barrell???????? any day now??????? some secret 1 million BPD oil demand out their in the world just being held back for the election?????? Please tell us when oil will go up again........as right now no one is talking about it going up anytime soon...and 2025????? good luck but from your comments you think right after the election........is this right???? dude you should go long in Oil you will make a fortune. Your dimwitted fellow Luddite who posts here was all in on a floor of $80 just a month ago..........Wonder if he went long in Oil at $80 ????? Tell me when Platinum will go up again??????? you guarantee what goes down will go back up.........You sound like a con man with a statement like that. Reality some things go down and take years to go back up if ever I take it you love losers .....such as Oil right now............. the point of the Platinum chart I posted is technology wiped out the Platinum market.....guess what is happening in the Oil Consuming markets??? Oil Demand is subject to changes in consumer use of Oil products...specifically Gasoline and Diesel..and the price is global in nature ...not just in your local gas station. What do you think the long term prospect for Gasoline demand is?????? Now the best is your comment......... I mean what I say, it may be at 67 and change but my guess politics is somewhat involved to make the ruling party look like they are "saving the middleclass'' and when the election is over, back to 80+ a barrel. Tell us Mr. Conspiracy Theory how politics is (somewhat) involved? enjoy the read below...... Fortune Oil is headed for a steeper dive, and OPEC+ won’t be able to stop it It doesn't look good at all for OPEC+ in 2025. Everybody would agree that non-OPEC supply is strong enough to create a surplus in the market... . 22 hours ago Edited September 7 by notsonice Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM September 7 pesky EVs/plug in hybrids in China. Chinas passenger car market is up from 2023. And EVs/plugin hybrids are now 55 percent of the market and the demand for Oil products overall in China is down..............and not due to less cars on the road in China In August, China's retail sales of all passenger vehicles amounted to 1.91 million units, 1 percent lower than the same month last year, but 11 percent higher than in July. So far this year, cumulative retail sales of all passenger vehicles in China totaled 13.477 million units, up 2 percent year-on-year. Economic slowdown in China????yet their economy is expanding at over 4 percent a year right now...reality the fundamental demand for Oil/Oil products in China is changing due to technology Fortune Oil is headed for a steeper dive, and OPEC+ won’t be able to stop it It doesn't look good at all for OPEC+ in 2025. Everybody would agree that non-OPEC supply is strong enough to create a surplus in the market... . 22 hours ago FXEmpire Oil News: Will Weak Demand from China and U.S. Drag Crude Prices Lower This Week? China's economic slowdown hits crude oil demand, while OPEC+ raises production—will oil prices drop further this week? . 3 hours ago MSN How bad is China oil demand? Investing.com -- China, long a driver of global oil demand, is now seeing one of the sharpest slowdowns in its oil consumption in recent decades. . 2 days ago Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
specinho + 466 September 9 (edited) On 9/7/2024 at 8:38 AM, Old-Ruffneck said: What goes down, will go back up...guaranteed. But for me is slightly helpful with my fuel bill. Gas is at 3.69 diesel 3.74. Many states will be lower as taxes on fuel in Illinois are high. WTI at todays drilling costs, could go as low as 45 a bbl. That is the last 8 to 10 years break even. Many thousands of well still producing from the 60's thru the 80's break even is 8 dollars in the 60's to 15 in the 80's. Greed is very prevalent through-out all mining and oil world wide. I mean what I say, it may be at 67 and change but my guess politics is somewhat involved to make the ruling party look like they are "saving the middleclass'' and when the election is over, back to 80+ a barrel. So let's not barbeque the crow just yet. Thank you for sharing. If, in the 80', breaking even is about $15, selling price let's assume to be around $30, and if one barrel of oil has ~ 159 liters, then: Liter oil = $30/159L = ~ $0.20/L. The earliest price i could recall was in late 90s. It was around rm 1.05, ~ $ 0.30/L. With subsidy given by the government, the price should be cheaper than that. The costs of operation outside of own country, taking risk in tumultuous water, should not be put forward onto the consumers but born by the government itself, right? If it is privately owned, should be the responsibility of the person in charged, yes? On 9/7/2024 at 9:07 AM, TailingsPond said: You got that saying backwards. There is no guarantee any product must regain value. Can I sell you some milk near its expiration date? A MP3 player? How about some fancy Dutch tulip bulbs? You can't even argue that oil will become valuable as an antique as it is already fossil old. The USA election has an effect but not global control of oil prices. "Drill baby drill" would lower prices further. Do you now expect another DEM victory? You might have used two different category of things in your comparison. One is non perishable i.e. fossil fuel, another is perishable i.e. milk, mp3. When non perishable goods become scarce, the price will rise. While perishable goods will have reduced value. Lowering oil price to buy votes is possible. If recall correctly, there was an order to release oil barrels reserved for emergency, despite opposition. It was as if described by old-R, ' making ruling party looks like they are saving the middleclass...' If democracy is about controlled win, nothing would be impossible... Edited September 9 by specinho 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TailingsPond + 852 GE September 9 (edited) 2 hours ago, specinho said: You might have used two different category of things in your comparison. One is non perishable i.e. fossil fuel, another is perishable i.e. milk, mp3. When non perishable goods become scarce, the price will rise. While perishable goods will have reduced value. Lowering oil price to buy votes is possible. If recall correctly, there was an order to release oil barrels reserved for emergency, despite opposition. It was as if described by old-R, ' making ruling party looks like they are saving the middleclass...' If democracy is about controlled win, nothing would be impossible... Reserved refined oil is actually perishable in storage, as are gasoline and other fuels. An MP3 player will last in storage longer much, much longer than gasoline. Oil will never become scarce enough to regain much value outside of artificial scarcity (OPEC production curtailments). The USA released a bunch of contaminated reserve oil and ended up paying the refineries for damages. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-contamination-exclusive/exclusive-firms-complain-of-contaminated-crude-from-u-s-reserve-idUSKBN1H50GI/ https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Exxon-Complains-Of-Toxic-US-Govt-Crude-Oil.html Edited September 9 by TailingsPond 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
turbguy + 1,538 September 9 (edited) I notice that the SOR volumes were (and still are) on the uptick, day by day. Hmmm.... Looks like the plan to release and refill is "working". Add to that: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinas-Energy-Transition-Is-Slowing-Its-Oil-Demand-Growth.html CHINA seems to be leading the world into a new paradigm. Edited September 9 by turbguy 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
specinho + 466 September 10 21 hours ago, TailingsPond said: Reserved refined oil is actually perishable in storage, as are gasoline and other fuels. An MP3 player will last in storage longer much, much longer than gasoline. Oil will never become scarce enough to regain much value outside of artificial scarcity (OPEC production curtailments). The USA released a bunch of contaminated reserve oil and ended up paying the refineries for damages. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-contamination-exclusive/exclusive-firms-complain-of-contaminated-crude-from-u-s-reserve-idUSKBN1H50GI/ https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Exxon-Complains-Of-Toxic-US-Govt-Crude-Oil.html Quote:" ... oil will never become scarce enough........" Probably partly correct... We are presuming a) fossil oil was created by mainly animal fat of fat animals. b) those animals are likely meat or oily fruit eaters with high level of cholesterol; possibly obese/ big in size or huge in number... Example, dinosaurs. They were buried, roasted, compressed for millions of years to form fossil oil. Therefore, 1. Since we no longer have dinosaurs or anything alike in huge size and huge number, the source for natural fossil oil is probably no longer available. 2. In case Jurassic Park is real and existing somewhere, we still need to compressed them under high heat, high temperature for millions of years. 3. After retiring of pioneers, old engineers and skilled workers, there is a general bet, all companies do not have enough good hands to handle the basic, especially during emergency. Japan has proven the existing of generation gap like this on many counts. No source, no time, no skill, fossil oil can no longer be reproduced within our time frame. The reservoirs likely have enough for the time being. Hence, price would likely be steady unless facilities of all government owned or linked oil producing countries are attacked. Should Ukraine start the lead, a test of true leadership of all oil producing countries will begin. "Hard time creates interesting people. Interesting people create interesting and good time." Vice versa. To test, or not to test, is a decision to be made. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TailingsPond + 852 GE September 10 (edited) 12 minutes ago, specinho said: We are presuming a) fossil oil was created by mainly animal fat of fat animals. b) those animals are likely meat or oily fruit eaters with high level of cholesterol; possibly obese/ big in size or huge in number... "We" are not presuming that - you are. Oil does not come from obese dinosaurs... We will never run out of oil, its use will be essentially discontinued long before that is a risk. Remember there was a time that whale oil was considered essential, and horses ruled the roads; now whale oil is pretty much illegal and horses are pets. Edited September 10 by TailingsPond 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,452 DL September 10 (edited) 31 minutes ago, TailingsPond said: "We" are not presuming that - you are. Oil does not come from obese dinosaurs... We will never run out of oil, its use will be essentially discontinued long before that is a risk. Remember there was a time that whale oil was considered essential, and horses ruled the roads; now whale oil is pretty much illegal and horses are pets. You are fluctuating with every twitch in the market price. Relax, this will be a long ride. The world is on the cusp of recession, interest rates remain high, the percentage of Chinese vehicles on fossil fuel is over 96%. The day-to-day fluctuations of the market react to every possible impact. Edited September 10 by Ecocharger 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TailingsPond + 852 GE September 10 (edited) 21 minutes ago, Ecocharger said: You are fluctuating with every twitch in the market price. Relax, this will be a long ride. The world is on the cusp of recession, interest rates remain high, the percentage of Chinese vehicles on fossil fuel is over 96%. The day-to-day fluctuations of the market react to every possible impact. What part of that comment to spec was about market price? Do you think we will run out of oil, or that oil came from obese dinosaurs? The percentage of Chinese vehicles running on fossil fuel is something you don't know - a complete guess. Even if 96% were ICE vehicles do you correct for the fraction of biodiesel and ethanol blending? A decent amount of renewable energy gets into liquid fuels (10% ethanol is very common). Fact remains oil prices are falling at the same time you said they would rise. You have been continually wrong for many months if not years. Edited September 10 by TailingsPond Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TailingsPond + 852 GE September 10 (edited) 34 minutes ago, Ecocharger said: You are fluctuating with every twitch in the market price. WTI is down year over year, month, week and day timescales. Edited September 10 by TailingsPond Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,452 DL September 10 4 hours ago, TailingsPond said: WTI is down year over year, month, week and day timescales. I do not comment on every twitch in the market price of oil...I have better things to do than that. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM September 10 (edited) On 7/3/2024 at 9:16 PM, Ecocharger said: Demand for oil is hot and getting hotter. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Standard-Chartered-Oil-Rally-Will-Extend-Well-Beyond-90-Per-Barrel.html "Oil is off to a strong start of Q3 with Brent rallying past $86 per barrel. According to commodity analysts at Standard Chartered, the Brent rally is sustainable well past $90/bbl. Standard Chartered: global oil markets will record a deficit in Q3 that will spill over into Q4." I do not comment on every twitch in the market price of oil????????? Demand for oil is hot and getting hotter.???????? You posted, Standard Chartered, the Brent rally is sustainable well past $90/bbl.????? were you long on Oil on July 3???? you are the King of Oil ,with your statement, that Demand for oil is hot and getting hotter..... how could you go wrong????? And you have a degree in Economics????????.........you must make a fortune as an oil analyst....pumping oil ..... is it in economics that they teach you that when demand gets hotter the price goes up and when demand cools off the price falls???? it has been 2 months since you tried selling Demand for oil is hot and getting hotter. Yep I checked your words...you did state Oil Brent went from $86 to $71 and a little in change in 2 months ....not a day to day fluctuation or a twitch. You must of made a fortune with your forecast....ha ha ha BRENT CRUDE •11 mins 71.14 -0.70 -0.97% If you hang out long enough you will get your $90 Brent......... When do you think it will hit $90????? Q3 is almost over..... as your fellow Luddite thinks right after the election in the 4th quarter, the price will shoot right back up????? Then again your fellow Luddite is a moron. And I actually think he is smarter than you. PS the US GDP is still expanding at over 2 percent annually adjusted for inflation and in China it is at over 4 percent.......so demand should be hot and getting hotter............oh wait ...........Oil demand is going in the opposite direction.........and at the same time Total global energy demand is hot and getting hotter...... The Green Agenda............it is not against the expanding use of Energy ...........it is all about using Cleaner energies than Coal or Oil The Green agenda is hot and getting hotter.....enjoy https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow Latest estimate: 2.5 percent -- September 09, 2024 The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on September 9, up from 2.1 percent on September 4. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the Institute for Supply Management, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.2 percent and 0.0 percent, respectively, to 3.5 percent and 1.2 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.37 percentage points to -0.40 percentage points. Edited September 10 by notsonice 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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