GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[turbguy + 1,544]

1 hour ago, specinho said:

new energy modes referred to solar and wind power. They are getting popular with large scale promotion very recently around 2010 or 2015........

I am not an engineer. I have a few questions out of curiosity.........

The design of modern wind turbine is different from the old wind mill common in Netherlands. Correct me if wrong............. The sharp/ narrow edge might be a deduction from p = F/A, i.e. the smaller the surface area, the stronger the pressure. From a diagram, the height could range from 20m to 160m.

1. At what minimal pressure point hitting the surface area of a pin size turbine blade would it turn? Would that location always achieve this minimal pressure required?

 

2. wind is generated when hot air rises and cool air refills the space left behind by the arisen  hot air.

hot air is generally generated by heated land masses, natural or man made.

cool air is generally generated by heated water masses, natural or man made, or from higher altitude (temperature decreases by one degree celcius per 100 m elevation). If cyclone always started from the surface of a water body or land near the water body, it might mean the exchange of air happens at low position?? We human experience wind around 1 to 2m. Wondering if those heights of the existing wind turbines too high to be reached by the wind??

 

Could these two factors the reasons why the efficiency is reported around  15 to 20% only?

 

 

You need to consider the blades of a wind turbine as akin to aircraft wings  with a variable angle of attack (or even a variable pitch aircraft propeller).

Airflow over the blade surface creates the force of "lift".  The pitch of the blade can vary with radial distance and wind speed.

The blade arrangement on a rotating pivot converts the lift to rotational torque, used for electric generation.  This is the reverse of an aircraft propeller, where engine torque is applied to the pivot, to rotate the blades, which provide "lift" (thrust), and pull the aircraft forward via the resulting lifting force on a thrust bearing.

There is a distinct mathematical limit to the amount of energy that can be extracted from a moving air column.   It is around 51% (IIRC), as you must let that mass column actually pass through, without stopping it completely.  Since the blades can be varied in pitch, this can be well-extracted over a broad range of wind speeds.

Buffeting (significant variation) and turbulence of air flow occurs closer to the earth's surface, posing losses and fatigue loads on the effect of the lift across the radial length of the blade.  Wind speeds and mass flows are typically more consistent (and higher) at further elevations above ground level, and thus increase energy extracted and decrease blade (and overall machine) fatigue issues.

Sea-located wind machines have an advantage as the sea's more level surface can reduce turbulence (slightly).

Also, wind is generated when cold air falls.   Most near-earth winds arise from very large scale, very slight pressure differences throughout the atmosphere (high pressure and low pressure areas, where the corollas effect also causes a large scale "swirling" motion).  It is a chaotic system, driven primarily by solar radiation.

Ever wonder why the blades are always upstream of the support column?  There's a real good reason.

Edited September 29, 2021 by turbguy

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

[ronwagn + 6,290]

16 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Hey now, that hustling paid my salary for about 3+ years over a 5 year period...🙄

I think you earned every dollar. I am not against wind turbines or solar. I am just pro natural gas and any green solutions that can compete. Preferably without government subsidies, because the taxpayers cannot afford to waste their tax dollars on anything that does not meet a strict analysis of costs and benefits.

[notsonice + 1,255]

Utility-scale solar declines in costs, pricing, value

Solar prices have now dipped below the cost of wind in contract prices in many regions, analysis shows.

September 29, 2021Ryan Kennedy

In a record year for the United States, 10 GW of utility-scale solar reached commercial operation date in 2020. The projects accounted for nearly 60% of all new PV capacity added that year.

Declining costs have been a chief driver of utility-scale solar growth, which has seen its reach expand beyond the sunny Southwest to more northerly regions. Prices negotiated through Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) have fallen to new lows, and solar PPAs are now less costly than wind in many regions. As solar increases its share of the capacity on the grid, its wholesale value reduces.

Prices negotiated through PPAs have fallen to new lows, and solar deals are now less costly than wind in many regions.

Image: Pixabay

However, this observed decline in value has kept pace with declining prices, meaning that solar has remained competitive. The growth prospects for utility scale solar look strong, with interconnection queues adding 170 GW last year alone.

Those insights were shared by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory during this year’s online Solar Power International. The Department of Energy laboratory drew its results from its database of 983 projects that have at least 5 MW of capacity, totaling 40.5 GW.

Downward trend

Falling costs remained the most significant driver of utility scale solar deployment in the U.S. Median installed costs have fallen  in the last decade, down nearly by 75% since 2010.

Lower capital costs and higher capacity factors, along with reduced operating expenses, longer design life, and improved financing terms have driven down the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) over the past 10 years. LCOE is a measure of the average net present cost of electricity generation for a generating plant over its lifetime.

LCOE has fallen 85% since 2010, to $34/MWh. If the federal investment tax credit of 30% is included, LCOE currently averages $28/MWh for utility-scale solar.

Image: Berkeley Labs

 

Steady growth in utility scale solar is expected to continue.

PPA prices have followed LCOE reductions, falling about 85% since 2010. Most projects in the CAISO (California) grid and the non-ISO West are priced around $20/MWh. Elsewhere in the continental U.S., prices range from $30-$40/MWh.

 

Value erosion

While prices have fallen, the value of solar has also eroded over time. This is due in part to wholesale electricity market prices declining overall, largely driven by declining natural gas prices. Solar-specific causes such as location, generation profile, and curtailment have driven this decline as well.

The California Independent System Operator covers most of the state.

 

The loss of value in solar has shown some correlation with the resource’s overall share in the wholesale energy market. For example, in 2020, in CAISO (California’s grid) solar made up 21% of capacity and netted an average value of $25/MWh on the wholesale market,  30% below the average wholesale price. In contrast, solar was valued at $51/MWh where it made up less than 1% of the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) grid-control region (Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma).

Despite the decline in wholesale value, declining PPA prices largely have kept pace, maintaining solar competitiveness in the market.

Steady growth in utility scale solar is expected to continue. About 460 GW of solar was in interconnection queues at the end of 2020, 170 GW of which were entered into the queues that year. Nearly 160 GW of the total queue include co-located battery energy storage, about 34% of the total. CAISO had the largest attachment rate in-queue, with nearly 90% of projects opting to include batteries.

What’s more, data reported by the Energy Information Administration showed that of the 14.5 GW of battery storage power capacity planned to come online in the U.S. from 2021 to 2024, around two-third will be co-located with a solar photovoltaic power plant.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

21 hours ago, turbguy said:

God, which one?

How about this summary?

"FERC said the biggest factors contributing to power plants failing were the lack of weatherization of critical equipment and natural gas supply issues at power plants. Nearly 58 percent of the power generators that went offline during the storm were natural gas plants"

Nat gas at 5" to 10" of water pressure works fine for a stove or a furnace, and even a small recip.   It is about 200 (or more) psig too low to shove fuel into a CT.

The report also pointed to electricity outages to natural gas generators...guess what, that makes them unable to operate.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

21 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Renewables in China far outpace gas for electricity generation.

Electricity mix in China, January-November 2020

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/electricity-mix-in-china-january-november-2020

Jay, your chart is again undefined...how many times do I have to correct you on this? Give us the context, or else your charts are worthless.

What it appears to show is the absolute reliance by China on coal-generated electricity, which you seem to think is a renewable? What gives, Jay?

Edited September 30, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

Just now, Ecocharger said:

Jay, your chart is again undefined...how many times do I have to correct you on this? Give us the context, or else your charts are worthless.

How many times do I need to define your lack of reading comprehension?

The title is clear and each line on the graph is named.

Spend some time paying attention or else your posts are worthless.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

21 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Except that UK new car EV sales are not at 2 they are at 18% market share. They will be 50% by the end of next year. Then they will be 100% a couple years later and ICE will begin fading away. What you call a tempest in a teapot will be remembered in economic history as the great EV disruption.

Again, you ignore second-hand vehicle sales which is a gigantic market for ICE. Overall your stock percentage is miniscule and not even worth reporting, judging by your persistent dead silence on the issue. Probably less than 1%, a joke.

You are just spinning jokes again, Jay.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

21 hours ago, nsdp said:

Did you even pass the first grade or were all of you promotions social promotions.  NERC staff is quite explicit about who was responsible for event at 0130 on 15 Feb that pushed the system over the ledge.

They were explicit about cutting off the gas-generated electricity sector, which you still fail to read.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

21 hours ago, turbguy said:

Yup.

After seeing ERCOT's system frequency vs time chart (with unit trip points) for the "event", it didn't take much for me to come to the same conclusions...

If posters want to point fingers, point them right at THE TEXAS RAILROAD COMMISSION!  What would it take adding power backup and weatherization to the nat gas system cost?  About 10-20 cents per million BTU's?

Then point at the generating plant owners and the PUC, that didn't pay attention to the 2011 occurrence.

They were really close to a grid collapse. 

I hope they test what black start units they have with reasonable frequency and under challenging conditions.   A black start unit that doesn't, ain't of much use.

You just emphasized my point. The lack of electric power to gas generators, caused by emergency cutoffs, which in turn was caused by the failure of the renewable sector, ended up making the gas generated backup system fail. That is just what I have been pointing out to you.

What is so difficult to grasp about this point?

Edited September 30, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

There is now a confluence of market forces, much of them created by the Green Dream and the panic by politicians, forcing up the price of oil and reducing the standard of living for poor Americans.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Rapid-Demand-Recovery-Hints-At-Even-Higher-Oil-Prices.html

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

Just now, Ecocharger said:

Again, you ignore second-hand vehicle sales which is a gigantic market for ICE. Overall your stock percentage is miniscule and not even worth reporting, judging by your persistent dead silence on the issue. Probably less than 1%, a joke.

You are just spinning jokes again, Jay.

Every second hand vehicle started out as a new car. There is no other source for second hand cars than the new car market. I can't believe I actually have to explain that to a supposed adult. 

 

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

2 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Every second hand vehicle started out as a new car. There is no other source for second hand cars than the new car market. I can't believe I actually have to explain that to a supposed adult. 

 

Every second hand vehicle sale represents a purchase decision by a consumer, especially for less well-off consumers, and secures significant transportation services for some years going forward. Those consumer choices also represent a rejection of an electric car alternative choice. That is how markets work, Jay, I guess you better dust off your economics textbooks and refresh.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

The basis of transportation energy will remain oil and gas,

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-27/commodity-giant-trafigura-paints-bullish-outlook-for-oil-and-gas

"Luckock said the market was mis-pricing forward oil contracts for the next couple of years because traders hadn’t yet woken up to the fact the supply-demand balance will remain tight for some time. “Deferred crude, particularly for December 2022 and 2023, is cheap,” he said. Brent crude for delivery in December 2022 is currently changing hands at around $70 a barrel, but Luckock said it wouldn’t be surprised if Brent has risen to about $100 a barrel by then. “I struggle to see anything but higher prices going forward in the next two years,” he said. "

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

Just now, Ecocharger said:

Every second hand vehicle sale represents a purchase decision by a consumer, especially for less well-off consumers, and secures significant transportation services for some years going forward. Those consumer choices also represent a rejection of an electric car alternative choice. That is how markets work, Jay, I guess you better dust off your economics textbooks and refresh.

They are buying a majority of used ice vehicles today because EVs are very new, just a small part of the market and at the  high end because they are in great demand. But that will change rapidly over the coming years as EVs take over the new car market. That is how the market works.

So you can absolutely make yourself look like an economic fool and poo poo the numbers because they are small today but they won't be small tomorrow. Don't worry I will keep you up to date on the fantastic exponential growth of  EVs.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

31 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

They are buying a majority of used ice vehicles today because EVs are very new, just a small part of the market and at the  high end because they are in great demand. But that will change rapidly over the coming years as EVs take over the new car market. That is how the market works.

So you can absolutely make yourself look like an economic fool and poo poo the numbers because they are small today but they won't be small tomorrow. Don't worry I will keep you up to date on the fantastic exponential growth of  EVs.

I doubt that we will see EVs garner a significant share of lower end vehicle stock, those buyers seem to prefer ICE vehicles. Small wonder. Even with $100 oil. Get those old textbooks dusted off, Jay.

Edited September 30, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

China is in the midst of an energy crisis, following in the footsteps of Europe. Even Tesla is hurting in China due to the climate panic-induced self-inflicted Green mania.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-power-crunch-begins-weigh-economic-outlook-2021-09-27/

"Widening power shortages in China have halted production at numerous factories including many supplying Apple and Tesla, while some shops in the northeast operated by candlelight and malls shut early as the economic toll of the squeeze mounted. China is in the grip of a power crunch as a shortage of coal supplies, toughening emissions standards and strong demand from manufacturers and industry have pushed coal prices to record highs and triggered widespread curbs on usage. Rationing has been implemented during peak hours in many parts of northeastern China since last week, and residents of cities including Changchun said cuts were occurring sooner and lasting for longer, state media reported."

Edited September 30, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

19 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

China is in the midst of an energy crisis, following in the footsteps of Europe. Even Tesla is hurting in China due to the climate panic-induced self-inflicted Green mania.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-power-crunch-begins-weigh-economic-outlook-2021-09-27/

"Widening power shortages in China have halted production at numerous factories including many supplying Apple and Tesla, while some shops in the northeast operated by candlelight and malls shut early as the economic toll of the squeeze mounted. China is in the grip of a power crunch as a shortage of coal supplies, toughening emissions standards and strong demand from manufacturers and industry have pushed coal prices to record highs and triggered widespread curbs on usage. Rationing has been implemented during peak hours in many parts of northeastern China since last week, and residents of cities including Changchun said cuts were occurring sooner and lasting for longer, state media reported."

So much for your grand future of Chinese coal power that you have been touting. They will be redoubling their efforts to move to renewables.

[turbguy + 1,544]

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

The lack of electric power to gas generators, caused by emergency cutoffs, which in turn was caused by the failure of the renewable sector, ended up making the gas generated backup system fail.

What is so difficult to grasp about this point?

The renewable power sector did not "under perform".   It was very close to ERCOT's renewable contribution projections for the event time-frame.

Many gas "providers" never signed up for "critical Infrastructure" protection, and thus were cut off by distribution companies.

Nat Gas Generators on-line at the time lost fuel supply, as the distribution companies began opening "non-critical circuits" on the orders of ERCOT to shed non-critical loads.

Load growth (and gas demand)  skyrocketed. 

Add to that plant trips from a host of other weather-related reasons.

A "perfect storm" of a sequence of events.  What a pity.   A lot could have been avoided with some pieces of paper...

It is so easy to bury your head by blaming one root cause for the events.

There were MULTIPLE root causes.

What is so difficult to grasp about this point?

 

[turbguy + 1,544]

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

The report also pointed to electricity outages to natural gas generators...guess what, that makes them unable to operate.

It may make them unable to START.

It does not make them unable to OPERATE a short time after STARTING.

Sounds like some generators were waiting for prices to rise before starting.

A market issue?

In "better grids", plants start in anticipation of NEED rather than waiting for PRICE.

Easy-peasy...

Edited September 30, 2021 by turbguy

[turbguy + 1,544]

BTW, this sort of "stuff" occurs in utility companies and generating plants with yearly frequency during periods of high load.

"The power crunch has reached the automotive industry and workers at GAC Aion, the electric vehicle unit of the largest state carmaker, Guangzhou Automobile Group, have been told to turn off air conditioning, lights, printers, and other office equipment when not in use, in order to conserve energy that’s not critical for car manufacturing, Bloomberg reports".

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Further-Restricts-Power-Use-Amid-Widening-Energy-Crisis.html

 

 

[nsdp + 449]

22 hours ago, turbguy said:

Ahhh,,,"Lincoln's Law."

Didn't think about that path.

Depends on the suppler.  Hopefully it wasn't Gridy.

Go ahead and apply!!

A free market works, until it doesn't.

Griddy would be a coplaintiff along with Brazos Electric Coop. Biggest target is the state rainy day fund. PUCT ordered the prices.  ERCOT claims sovereign immunity.

[nsdp + 449]

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

The basis of transportation energy will remain oil and gas,

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-27/commodity-giant-trafigura-paints-bullish-outlook-for-oil-and-gas

"Luckock said the market was mis-pricing forward oil contracts for the next couple of years because traders hadn’t yet woken up to the fact the supply-demand balance will remain tight for some time. “Deferred crude, particularly for December 2022 and 2023, is cheap,” he said. Brent crude for delivery in December 2022 is currently changing hands at around $70 a barrel, but Luckock said it wouldn’t be surprised if Brent has risen to about $100 a barrel by then. “I struggle to see anything but higher prices going forward in the next two years,” he said. "

Luckock also forecased $100+ barrel for 2015 in 2014 .

[nsdp + 449]

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

You just emphasized my point. The lack of electric power to gas generators, caused by emergency cutoffs, which in turn was caused by the failure of the renewable sector, ended up making the gas generated backup system fail. That is just what I have been pointing out to you.

What is so difficult to grasp about this point?

Nothing  except it is bullshit and gas curtailments  because of  prior failure of supplies from coal, and large gas plants like Agua  dulce, Old Ocean gas plant and three i n the Permian. . ERCOT had already reached the under frequency event threshold Then Lights went off to the others AFTER the EMERGENCY Under FREQUENCY window opened.   At that point we were near blackout conditions.  You obviously know nothing about grid relaying.

[turbguy + 1,544]

Just now, nsdp said:

You [Ecocharger] obviously know nothing about grid relaying.

Agreed.

Or plant relaying, either.

They have no clue....