GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[nsdp + 449]

10 hours ago, turbguy said:

You need to consider the blades of a wind turbine as akin to aircraft wings  with a variable angle of attack (or even a variable pitch aircraft propeller).

Airflow over the blade surface creates the force of "lift".  The pitch of the blade can vary with radial distance and wind speed.

The blade arrangement on a rotating pivot converts the lift to rotational torque, used for electric generation.  This is the reverse of an aircraft propeller, where engine torque is applied to the pivot, to rotate the blades, which provide "lift" (thrust), and pull the aircraft forward via the resulting lifting force on a thrust bearing.

There is a distinct mathematical limit to the amount of energy that can be extracted from a moving air column.   It is around 51% (IIRC), as you must let that mass column actually pass through, without stopping it completely.  Since the blades can be varied in pitch, this can be well-extracted over a broad range of wind speeds.

Buffeting (significant variation) and turbulence of air flow occurs closer to the earth's surface, posing losses and fatigue loads on the effect of the lift across the radial length of the blade.  Wind speeds and mass flows are typically more consistent (and higher) at further elevations above ground level, and thus increase energy extracted and decrease blade (and overall machine) fatigue issues.

Sea-located wind machines have an advantage as the sea's more level surface can reduce turbulence (slightly).

Also, wind is generated when cold air falls.   Most near-earth winds arise from very large scale, very slight pressure differences throughout the atmosphere (high pressure and low pressure areas, where the corollas effect also causes a large scale "swirling" motion).  It is a chaotic system, driven primarily by solar radiation.

Ever wonder why the blades are always upstream of the support column?  There's a real good reason.

Betz' Law limits energy capturee to 59% of available energy in air flow.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

China is desperate to break out of its current self-inflicted energy crisis, so now China has decided to ramp up both coal AND oil production, using shale fracking technology to mine the depths.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/China-Bets-On-Shale-To-Raise-Its-Oil-Production.html

"Chinese oil majors are ramping up exploration for shale oil and gas as part of a mandate from authorities to raise domestic production, which could diminish China's costly dependence on crude oil and natural gas imports.  Yet, China has struggled to develop its huge shale gas and oil resources so far. The challenges arise because some of the most prolific basins are twice as deep underground as the shale gas resources in some of the most extensive U.S. shale gas plays. The challenging geology leads to higher well drilling and completion costs, lower margins for exploration and production companies, and, at times, mixed results in gas flows.   "

Edited September 30, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

10 hours ago, nsdp said:

Luckock also forecased $100+ barrel for 2015 in 2014 .

That was before the current Green Mania and public panic.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

10 hours ago, nsdp said:

Nothing  except it is bullshit and gas curtailments  because of  prior failure of supplies from coal, and large gas plants like Agua  dulce, Old Ocean gas plant and three i n the Permian. . ERCOT had already reached the under frequency event threshold Then Lights went off to the others AFTER the EMERGENCY Under FREQUENCY window opened.   At that point we were near blackout conditions.  You obviously know nothing about grid relaying.

Facts are facts...the NG generators were listed as targets for electricity cutoffs , so of course they were shut down. You quoted the report section where that was admitted.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

Now we have the spectacle of Biden & Co. begging the oil industry, yes, that same oil industry which is in the administration cross-hairs of targeted shutdowns, to ignore the anti-oil posture of the new guys in D.C. and please help them navigate the turmoil caused by anti-pipeline and anti-oil policies.

"Please, fellas, give us a break. We promise to mend our ways, just help us, please."

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Biden-Administration-Begs-OPEC-Again-To-Bring-Down-Oil-Prices.html

"“Higher gasoline costs, if left unchecked, risk harming the ongoing global recovery,” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said in early August, adding that the OPEC+ timeline for easing the cuts “is simply not enough” at a critical moment in the global recovery.    Sullivan is now in Saudi Arabia, with plans to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to discuss Yemen. “That’s really the focus,” Psaki said, referring to Yemen.  “But I would assure you we’re not only engaged with OPEC, we’re looking at every means we have to lower gas prices,” she added."

Edited September 30, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

Hey, guys, get your act together! The solar power industry has split open with an internal feud over tariffs on panel imports. The consumer of energy is the one party who does not get heard from here, only the producers are considered worthy of a discussion. Typical of special privilege in the renewable sector.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Commerce-Department-Delays-Critical-Decision-On-Solar-Panel-Tariffs.html

"According to solar farm builders, tariffs on Vietnamese, Malaysian, and Thai panels would spook the foreign producers on which they rely, crippling the solar industry. Panel manufacturers, on the other hand, have accused Chinese panel producers of moving their manufacturing activity to these three countries to skirt U.S. tariffs on Chinese-made panels, introduced by the previous administration. According to industry body Solar Energy Industries Association, if tariffs are imposed on imported panels, this would compromise the commercial viability of some 18 GW of new solar projects over the next two years. At the same time, the developers themselves admit they are dependent on international supply chains, which makes them quite vulnerable to disruptions. Reuters notes that solar panel shipments to the United States were down 11 percent on the year last month because panel makers were afraid of getting hit with new tariffs. "We are getting hit right now pretty hard," one solar developer said this week. "We are completely dependent on a global supply chain, so we are a little bit more vulnerable.""

Edited September 30, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

Chinese demand for coal is soaring into the stratosphere, and the energy crisis caused by the Green Dream governments continues to hammer world economies.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Europes-Gas-And-Power-Prices-Hit-New-Records.html

" Europe is low not only on natural gas supply as the heating season begins on October 1. Coal is also in short supply as some utilities are forced to switch to coal from gas due to the surging gas prices. Coal prices are also surging amid a tight global market supply with Chinese demand booming and with high EU carbon prices. Officials at Russian companies tell Bloomberg that European utilities are asking for coal. But Europe may not get much incremental coal supply soon as Russian coal exports are constrained just as gas deliveries are. As a result, power prices in Europe are also soaring, with French and German electricity prices for next year hitting records on Thursday, according to Bloomberg estimates. “European gas prices continued to rise rapidly yesterday. Flows from Russia are reduced and the supply fears are growing further following a fire on a Malaysian LNG complex yesterday. Both on the day ahead market and on long-term contracts, prices are climbing rapidly, and the fiercely bullish sentiment affects all the related markets heavily,” analysts at Energi Danmark wrote in a note on Thursday. “While US gas prices are down 12% from Monday’s multi-year peak, a relentless rally continues in EU and Asian gas with both now trading around $30/MMBtu with tight supplies and the bidding war for LNG shipments continuing to drive prices higher,” Saxo Bank said today."

Edited September 30, 2021 by Ecocharger

[specinho + 470]

23 hours ago, turbguy said:

You need to consider the blades of a wind turbine as akin to aircraft wings  with a variable angle of attack (or even a variable pitch aircraft propeller).

Airflow over the blade surface creates the force of "lift".  The pitch of the blade can vary with radial distance and wind speed.

The blade arrangement on a rotating pivot converts the lift to rotational torque, used for electric generation.  This is the reverse of an aircraft propeller, where engine torque is applied to the pivot, to rotate the blades, which provide "lift" (thrust), and pull the aircraft forward via the resulting lifting force on a thrust bearing.

There is a distinct mathematical limit to the amount of energy that can be extracted from a moving air column.   It is around 51% (IIRC), as you must let that mass column actually pass through, without stopping it completely.  Since the blades can be varied in pitch, this can be well-extracted over a broad range of wind speeds.

Buffeting (significant variation) and turbulence of air flow occurs closer to the earth's surface, posing losses and fatigue loads on the effect of the lift across the radial length of the blade.  Wind speeds and mass flows are typically more consistent (and higher) at further elevations above ground level, and thus increase energy extracted and decrease blade (and overall machine) fatigue issues.

Sea-located wind machines have an advantage as the sea's more level surface can reduce turbulence (slightly).

Also, wind is generated when cold air falls.   Most near-earth winds arise from very large scale, very slight pressure differences throughout the atmosphere (high pressure and low pressure areas, where the corollas effect also causes a large scale "swirling" motion).  It is a chaotic system, driven primarily by solar radiation.

Ever wonder why the blades are always upstream of the support column?  There's a real good reason.

not sure if I understand correctly...... Were you trying to mention:

1. as a plane speeding forward, air flow above the wing  creates a possible lift. Turbulence is lower at higher altitude.

2. as blades of a wind turbine rotating, electricity is generated...

 

a) There might still be a gap of info..... The old design of a wind mill has rectangular blades facing direction of wind, presumed. As the wind hits, it turns the whole structure. Electricity is generated. New design might have flat surface of the blades located near the rotor, facing wind? Would this mean, there is a high chance the wind will bypass the narrow portion of the blades, hit straight on the flat surface but produce no turning effect?

 

b) avoiding turbulence created by wind might be a crucial task to maintain stability of a plane and hence comfort of riding. However, avoiding wind for a wind turbine??!  'o'  'o'   'o'

- not sure if this observation from ages ago, before climate change is widely acknowledged,   is correct but imagine you are walking up a hill or a mountain........... Could it be rather common if the air is still as you climb, compared to when you are at the foot hill?? Or is there a difference between morning climb and afternoon?? If the air is still as one climbs, a deduction could be made i.e. no wind at altitude higher than a certain heights?

 

 

[specinho + 470]

not trying to be a party popper. Raised the questions to allow another look into hasty action so popular lately............ Taking a step back allows more time  to review more matured technologies possibly overlooked before?

The following concept fascinates me......... Not sure if it can be useful in modifying the existing design......?

 

[turbguy + 1,544]

2 hours ago, specinho said:

not sure if I understand correctly...... Were you trying to mention:

1. as a plane speeding forward, air flow above the wing  creates a possible lift. Turbulence is lower at higher altitude.

2. as blades of a wind turbine rotating, electricity is generated...

 

a) There might still be a gap of info..... The old design of a wind mill has rectangular blades facing direction of wind, presumed. As the wind hits, it turns the whole structure. Electricity is generated. New design might have flat surface of the blades located near the rotor, facing wind? Would this mean, there is a high chance the wind will bypass the narrow portion of the blades, hit straight on the flat surface but produce no turning effect?

 

b) avoiding turbulence created by wind might be a crucial task to maintain stability of a plane and hence comfort of riding. However, avoiding wind for a wind turbine??!  'o'  'o'   'o'

- not sure if this observation from ages ago, before climate change is widely acknowledged,   is correct but imagine you are walking up a hill or a mountain........... Could it be rather common if the air is still as you climb, compared to when you are at the foot hill?? Or is there a difference between morning climb and afternoon?? If the air is still as one climbs, a deduction could be made i.e. no wind at altitude higher than a certain heights?

 

 

The designed shape of the blades is a mix of engineering principles.

A larger cross section is required near the "root" for centripetal stress and pivot attachment considerations.   The blade tapers toward the tip (gets lighter per unit of length) for the same reason.

Also, the blades "twist" along the radius to accommodate the difference in relative wind, as that changes with the radial distance from the pivot.  Farther out from the pivot, the "wing" moves faster with respect to the incoming wind vector.  Blade material may even "untwist" slightly as rotational speed increases.

Vectors (from the blade's perspective, "relative wind") are used to design the twist.

Turbulence in the wind can be easily experienced at the seashore with an on-shore wind.  Note the difference in wind "roughness" by backing off from the surf by several hundred meters.  The uneven earth's surface causes atmospheric drag and eddies (turbulence) near the surface.

Turbulence interferes with even flow over the length of the blade, affecting relative wind over different areas of the blade, inducing fatigue and losses, as performance is reduced.

If you are attempting to compare the design of dutch windmills (some even had fabric sails and the like) to a modern wind turbine, there is a vast difference in shape due to the actual engineering considerations of the principles, and modern manufacturing capabilities involved.

 

 

Edited September 30, 2021 by turbguy

[turbguy + 1,544]

3 hours ago, specinho said:

not trying to be a party popper. Raised the questions to allow another look into hasty action so popular lately............ Taking a step back allows more time  to review more matured technologies possibly overlooked before?

The following concept fascinates me......... Not sure if it can be useful in modifying the existing design......?

 

This is effectively identical to mechanical gearing.

[notsonice + 1,255]

8 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

That was before the current Green Mania and public panic.

public panic???? big protests in your local trailer parks?

[notsonice + 1,255]

7 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Chinese demand for coal is soaring into the stratosphere, and the energy crisis caused by the Green Dream governments continues to hammer world economies.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Europes-Gas-And-Power-Prices-Hit-New-Records.html

" Europe is low not only on natural gas supply as the heating season begins on October 1. Coal is also in short supply as some utilities are forced to switch to coal from gas due to the surging gas prices. Coal prices are also surging amid a tight global market supply with Chinese demand booming and with high EU carbon prices. Officials at Russian companies tell Bloomberg that European utilities are asking for coal. But Europe may not get much incremental coal supply soon as Russian coal exports are constrained just as gas deliveries are. As a result, power prices in Europe are also soaring, with French and German electricity prices for next year hitting records on Thursday, according to Bloomberg estimates. “European gas prices continued to rise rapidly yesterday. Flows from Russia are reduced and the supply fears are growing further following a fire on a Malaysian LNG complex yesterday. Both on the day ahead market and on long-term contracts, prices are climbing rapidly, and the fiercely bullish sentiment affects all the related markets heavily,” analysts at Energi Danmark wrote in a note on Thursday. “While US gas prices are down 12% from Monday’s multi-year peak, a relentless rally continues in EU and Asian gas with both now trading around $30/MMBtu with tight supplies and the bidding war for LNG shipments continuing to drive prices higher,” Saxo Bank said today."

You should buy coal stocks.......you will make a fortune.....better yet buy a coal mine

[notsonice + 1,255]

8 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Facts are facts...the NG generators were listed as targets for electricity cutoffs , so of course they were shut down. You quoted the report section where that was admitted.

the NG generators were listed as targets for electricity cutoffs , so of course they were shut down....So you are admitting finally that the problems in Texas were caused by braindead ERCOT and NG generators not Wind Turbines ?

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

We have a full-blown energy crisis and there appears to be no easy way to back away from it, unless panicked governments regain their common sense. The fundamental problem going forward is the threatening behavior of governments towards oil and natural gas industries, which produces a negative impact on investment for future production. And those reductions in investment start to pinch right now during the recovery from the pandemic. Growing demand for energy coupled with reduced investment in energy can have only one outcome: increased prices for oil and natural gas.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Will-80-Oil-Destroy-Demand.html

"Global oil demand is actually strong and set to strengthen into the winter due to a gas-to-oil switch amid surging natural gas prices and low gas inventories in Europe and Asia just ahead of the heating season. Analysts and top executives in the industry see demand worldwide returning to pre-COVID levels as soon as early next year, if not earlier, by the end of 2021.

Fundamentals - recovering demand amid a muted supply response - point to prices potentially going even higher from here, say Goldman Sachs and commodity trading giants Trafigura and Vitol."

Edited October 1, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

2 hours ago, notsonice said:

the NG generators were listed as targets for electricity cutoffs , so of course they were shut down....So you are admitting finally that the problems in Texas were caused by braindead ERCOT and NG generators not Wind Turbines ?

No, the failure of renewable sources caused the chain reaction which cut off electricity to the backup NG generators, and that cutoff response caused the backup system NG generators to fail. That is clearly described in the sections of the report you quoted. The system was designed to fail in a cold weather scenario, and fail it did.

Edited October 1, 2021 by Ecocharger

[turbguy + 1,544]

2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

No, the failure of renewable sources caused the chain reaction which cut off electricity to the backup NG generators, and that cutoff response caused the backup system NG generators to fail. That is clearly described in the sections of the report you quoted. The system was designed to fail in a cold weather scenario, and fail it did.

You show me where wind failed on the early morning of February 15th.

I will keep it simple for you.

Edited October 1, 2021 by turbguy

[notsonice + 1,255]

16 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

That was before the current Green Mania and public panic.

$70 to $80 oil and you are in a panic? Nothing to get excited about. I worry about $ 40 to $50 oil as it destroys anyone in the Oil business in the US  until the point that no one is left standing except the Arabs.  In 2016 and 2020  the Saudis opened the taps trying to destroy US oil production....MAGA?. %2 percent EV's and you are worried about Green Mania? . 

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

The energy crisis is in full bloom, courtesy of the Green Dreamers and their panicked political leasdership.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/LNG-Price-Breaks-Record.html

"The spike in prices on the spot market followed an order by Beijing to energy suppliers to secure gas for the winter at all costs. Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed sources, that Vice Premier Han Zheng had ordered all power utilities to make sure they have enough supplies of raw materials, including coal and oil, for the security of power supply during the cold season—whatever it took. What this means is that the prices of all fossil fuels will continue rallying, which will aggravate an already difficult situation in Europe as it further shrinks the availability of liquefied natural gas for the continent. Unfortunately for Europeans, it might also tighten pipeline supplies: China has announced pipeline gas auctions, meaning Russia may direct more gas to the East. “It’s hard to believe that just 18 months ago the Asian LNG market saw record low prices of below US$2/MMBtu. If we do see strong Chinese buying, it will put further pressure on the European natural gas market,” ING said in a note today. “Strength in the gas market continues to be supportive for oil prices. Spot Asian LNG is trading at an oil equivalent of around US$177/bbl and so there is a clear incentive for gas-to-oil switching,” the Dutch financial services giant also said, confirming signals of higher oil prices still to come on top of the gas price records."

Edited October 1, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

6 hours ago, notsonice said:

$70 to $80 oil and you are in a panic? Nothing to get excited about. I worry about $ 40 to $50 oil as it destroys anyone in the Oil business in the US  until the point that no one is left standing except the Arabs.  In 2016 and 2020  the Saudis opened the taps trying to destroy US oil production....MAGA?. %2 percent EV's and you are worried about Green Mania? . 

1946? You are way off target there. If you don't think that there is anything wrong with $80 oil, tell the current administration Biden & Co., get them to calm down. Yes, .2% of vehicle stock is EV, but politicians are targeting the oil and gas sector for destruction.

Edited October 1, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

Going forward, a massive energy shortage and oil price increase, primarily due to the misguided climate policies of governments and panic-driven hysteria. It is always better to think before you leap, a piece of advice which current governments have completely ignored in their wild deliberations.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Bank-Of-America-Energy-Crunch-Could-Lead-To-100-Oil-And-Economic-Crisis.html

"In a note on Friday carried by Bloomberg, BofA said that gas-to-oil switching with record-high natural gas prices could spur a lot of additional oil demand, especially diesel. Then, a colder than usual winter would also push energy demand and prices higher, while a reopening of the U.S. borders for international travel would boost demand for jet fuel. “If all these factors come together, oil prices could spike and lead to a second round of inflationary pressures around the world,” BofA analysts wrote in the note. “Put differently, we may just be one storm away from the next macro hurricane,” the bank says, as carried by Bloomberg. As oil prices briefly broke above $80 a barrel earlier this week, fears of persistent inflation around the world have risen as commodity prices soar. High prices of energy commodities, including of crude oil, are set to further raise inflation which is already higher than Fed and central banks’ targets. Currently, inflationary pressures are seen as mostly transitory. Yet, sustained high oil prices would put more pressure on prices. BofA is bullish on oil not only in the near term, but in the longer term as well, due to the chronic underinvestment in new supply, driven by last year’s crisis and the net-zero commitments of energy companies and governments. “A multiyear run up in crude oil prices is now in the cards,” Bank of America notes."

Edited October 2, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

Tesla has another record breaking quarter, on track for 60% YOY growth:

It looks like this quarter’s delivery wave was successful as Tesla reported record deliveries of 241,300 electric cars in Q3 2021.

	Production	Deliveries	Subject to operating lease accounting
Model S/X	8,941	9,275	20%
Model 3/Y	228,882	232,025	6%
Total	237,823	241,300	7%

That’s a new record – beating the previous one of 201,250 deliveries achieved just the previous quarter (Q2 2021).

Tesla also produced vehicles compared to 206,421 vehicles during the previous quarter.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

Europe is now crisis bound for energy shortages, the result of misguided climate policies.So now in desperation, Europe is reversing course and ramping up demand for coal as a source of energy. Panic over climate has led to panic over energy...entirely predictable, as anyone with any knowledge could see.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/German-Coal-Plant-Runs-Completely-Out-Of-Coal.html

"In recent weeks, utilities across Europe have fired up more coal-powered generation as natural gas prices continue to surge. Even the UK, which has pledged to phase out coal-fired power generation by October 2024, had to fire up earlier this month an old coal plant that was on standby in order to meet its electricity demand. The share of coal in Britain’s electricity mix during some periods in September—albeit below 3 percent—was more than double compared to the below-1-percent share in September 2020. Gas and power prices in Europe are at all-time highs, as Europe is low not only on natural gas supply as the heating season begins on October 1. Coal is also in short supply as some utilities are forced to switch to coal from gas due to the surging gas prices. Coal prices are also surging amid a tight global market supply with Chinese demand booming and with high EU carbon prices. Officials at Russian companies tell Bloomberg that European utilities are asking for coal. But Europe may not get much incremental coal supply anytime soon, as Russian coal exports are constrained just as gas deliveries are."

Edited October 2, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

Norway Plugin EVs pass 90% of new car market share.

 

Sweden passes 50%

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

10 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Tesla has another record breaking quarter, on track for 60% YOY growth:

It looks like this quarter’s delivery wave was successful as Tesla reported record deliveries of 241,300 electric cars in Q3 2021.

	Production	Deliveries	Subject to operating lease accounting
Model S/X	8,941	9,275	20%
Model 3/Y	228,882	232,025	6%
Total	237,823	241,300	7%

That’s a new record – beating the previous one of 201,250 deliveries achieved just the previous quarter (Q2 2021).

Tesla also produced vehicles compared to 206,421 vehicles during the previous quarter.

Still a tiny miniscule percentage of total vehicle stock...no, this does not move the needle to any discernible extent. Sorry, not impressed.